December 3rd, 2021: Lockout, Non-Tenders, Mailbag

What a week. North of a billion dollars spent on free agents and then baseball shut down for who knows how long. I hope the Yankees enjoyed the view from the sidelines. Kind of amazing how little they accomplished before the lockout and how much they’ll have to accomplish in a relatively short period of time after the lockout. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. The lockout begins. Baseball’s first work stoppage since the 1994-95 strike is officially underway. As expected, the owners locked the players out almost immediately after the Collective Bargaining Agreement expired at 11:59pm ET on Wednesday. They didn’t have to. Federal labor law allows the two sides to continue to work under the terms of the old CBA while negotiating a new deal, but that was a bridge too far for MLB, so the owners voted unanimously in favor of a lockout. Now here we are.

“This drastic and unnecessary measure will not affect the Players’ resolve to reach a fair contract,” MLBPA chief Tony Clark said in a statement. “We remain committed to negotiating a new Collective Bargaining Agreement that enhances competition, improves the product for our fans, and advances the rights and benefits of our membership.”

Soon after the lockout Rob Manfred explained the decision in a letter so disingenuous I won’t dignify it with a link. MLB.com and team sites have removed all references to current players, headshots, and even links to roster pages. It’s not pettiness. MLB properties can’t use player likenesses for commercial purposes without a CBA. Good reminder the league is nothing without the players.

(MLBshop.com is still selling player merchandise and it is my understanding that is covered by a separate license, so it’s still business as usual there with everyone getting their usual cut.)

So now we wait. Hopefully days, likely weeks, possibly months. I’d like to think this will neatly wrap up in time for Spring Training, but work stoppages in other sports have taught me these things are unpredictable. The pandemic may save us from a lockout that costs games because neither side wants to lose more paychecks to a third straight compromised season. It’s not until the regular season approaches and those paychecks are actually on the line that the two sides will really feel the heat though.

I wrote CBS posts about what the lockout means for the rest of the offseason and what can and can’t happen during the lockout, so check those out. If this goes on long enough maybe I’ll have to resort to writing a “top 10 players most likely to become scabs” post. In all seriousness, here’s the nuts and bolts of the lockout and what it means for the Yankees.

Latest proposals

In the days leading up to the lockout MLB and MLBPA brass hunkered down for face-to-face meetings in Dallas. They obviously weren’t productive meetings and the whole thing felt like an excuse to say “we tried.” Here are the highlights from MLB’s proposals via Evan Drellich (subs. req’d), Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers, and Travis Sawchik:

• Raise luxury tax threshold from $210M to $214M in 2022, then gradually to $220M by 2026, but with increased penalties.
• Revised arbitration system plus free agency for everyone at age 29.5.
• Eliminate draft pick compensation for free agents.
• Expanded 14-team postseason.
• Draft lottery for top three picks.
• Reduce player pension funding.
• Squid Game to decide the final roster spot.

Okay I made that last part up. Anyway, a few weeks back MLB proposed lowering the luxury tax threshold to $180M (and pairing it with a $100M salary floor) and that’s insulting, but the union likely sees proposing reduced pension funding as an act of labor war. That will never ever ever ever fly. MLB knows that, they proposed it this week anyway, and it shows they have not been all that serious about coming to an agreement.

The luxury tax threshold raises are small. Smaller than previous CBAs. It’s a $4M increase in Year 1 but then a $6M total increase from Years 2-5. The just completed CBA had a $15M increase during the five years. The previous CBA had an $11M increase. The one before that had a $30M (!) increase. As usual, MLB’s proposed increases (to the minimum salary, arbitration, luxury tax, etc.) are not on the same scale as the increase in revenue.

Free agency for everyone at age 29.5 would help some players (Aaron Judge would have been a free agent this offseason under that system) but hurt others like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto, the guys who raise the salary bar for everyone else. Eliminating draft pick compensation is overdue and a draft lottery doesn’t move the needle. I can’t believe so many people still believe that’s the way to fix tanking in the year 2021 (NBA and NHL teams tank despite a draft lottery).

Now here are the highlights from the MLBPA’s proposals, via the same sources:

• No change to free agency in 2022, then free agency with six years of service time or five years and age 30.5 in 2023 and 2024, then six years of service time or five years and age 29.5 in 2025 and 2026.
• Raise luxury tax threshold to $245M (not sure if that’s in 2022 or by Year 5 of the CBA).
• Service time bonuses for All-Star Game selections, awards finishes, etc.
• Expanded 12-team postseason with two divisions per league.
• Draft lottery with a market size component.
• Advertising patches on uniforms.

The free agency proposal is not great but it is a step in the right direction. The MLBPA won’t get everything they want in this CBA. They have to chip away over time, like the owners have done since 1995. The union’s proposal gradually gets players to free agency at six years of service time, or five years of service time and at least age 29.5, whichever comes first. Not a huge improvement but an improvement. I feel like they should aim a little higher and negotiate down to this. I dunno.

Going from a $210M luxury tax threshold in 2021 to a $245M threshold in 2022 would be great. Even just scaling from $210M in 2021 to $245M in 2026 would be good. Also, if the threshold was set at the same percentage of (known) revenue as 15 years ago, it would be around $300M right now. So while $245M seems like a big number, it’s really not. That said, MLB won’t go for an increase that big. Hal Steinbrenner will make sure of it.

I don’t like an expanded postseason (it was fine during the weird season last year) but one way or another, we’re getting one. The MLBPA is proposing 12 teams, so we’re getting at least 12 postseason teams next year. Blah. Congrats to all the owners who can cut payroll and build 85-win teams while still plausibly call themselves contenders. As for as on uniforms, I don’t care even a tiny little bit. You won’t even notice them after a week or two. Go get paid. Kinda surprised they haven't happened yet.

So, this is where MLB and the MLBPA stand. Based on last year’s shutdown, which was a work stoppage under the guise of a pandemic, there will be a lot of leaks and public sniping over the next few weeks, and they will all come from MLB with the intention of making the MLBPA look unreasonable. Things will look bad and then worse, and then the two sides will get together and hammer out a new deal in like two days. You are forewarned though, the next few weeks will be ugly.

Transactions freeze

There is a transactions freeze during the lockout. Teams can’t do anything (sign, trade, release, etc.) with 40-man roster players. Team employees can’t even talk about 40-man roster players, so if Aaron Boone goes on WFAN and they ask him how Gleyber Torres looks this winter, he can’t say anything (the players can talk though, they don’t fall under MLB’s mandate). Also, players in DFA limbo stay in DFA limbo until the lockout ends. The Yankees don’t have anyone in DFA limbo, but others teams do (Lewis Brinson, Colin Moran, etc.).

It’s important to note the transactions freeze applies only to 40-man roster players (i.e. MLBPA members). Teams can still sign players to minor league deals and even trade non-40-man players. Will they do that? I’m not sure. I guess we’ll find out. Transactions involving the 40-man roster are frozen though. Less exciting stuff on the minor league side is still possible.

Another thing: teams can hire non-player personnel during the lockout. Those folks aren’t MLBPA members, so no issues there. The Yankees still need to hire several coaches (first base coach, hitting coaches, etc.) and I expect them to do that during the lockout. The transactions freeze applies to 40-man roster players only. Business as usual for everyone else.

(Apparently teams can talk to each other about trades and even agree to them, but they can’t actually complete them until the lockout ends. They can also talk to agents about free agent deals, but not the player himself. I doubt we hear much about any of these trade or free agent talks at all, to be honest.)

Winter Meetings canceled

MLB has canceled the Winter Meetings. It’s official. They were scheduled to be held in Orlando next week. The minor league portion of the Winter Meetings will still go on as scheduled. The job fairs and trade shows and all that. The Major League teams won’t be there though. It’ll be just another week on the offseason calendar.

Rule 5 Draft postponed

The Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft has been “postponed indefinitely,” reports Kyle Glaser. There is precedent for the Rule 5 Draft being held during a work stoppage (the 1994 Rule 5 Draft took place during the strike, Tanyon Sturtze was the No. 2 pick) but it won’t happen this offseason. If the lockout goes on long enough, I suppose the Rule 5 Draft could be canceled entirely. I guess we’ll find out.

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft will take place as scheduled next Thursday. That does not involve 40-man roster players (teams select players from another team’s minor league reserve list and put them on their minor league reserve list) so the transactions freeze doesn’t apply. The Yankees got Triple-A lefty Matt Krook in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last offseason. The Pirates took Shea Spitzbarth from the Dodgers in the minor league phase last offseason and he reached the big leagues this summer.

One name to watch: Kyler Murray. The Athletics selected the Arizona Cardinals quarterback with the No. 9 pick in the 2018 draft and they still control his baseball rights. I can’t imagine they will use a minor league reserve spot to protect him. Maybe the Yankees will pull another Russell Wilson and draft Murray to get him in the organization, then bring him to Spring Training? He’d go on the restricted list during the season. It’s not like Murray would take a roster spot from someone else.

(We never get to see the minor league reserve lists prior to the minor league Rule 5 Draft. Who gets protected and left exposed each year is a mystery.)

Players can’t use club facilities

During a lockout the owners literally lock the players out. They can’t use team facilities for workouts or anything. Earlier this week Joey Gallo tweeted out a photo of all the guys working out in Tampa …

… and that had to stop. Those guys can’t use the team facilities anymore. This also applies to rehabbing players. Zack Britton (Tommy John surgery), DJ LeMahieu (sports hernia surgery), and Jameson Taillon (ankle surgery) must rehab on their own during the lockout.

Taillon said the Yankees set him up at a physical therapy place, so it’s not like these guys are winging it on their own at home. But still, they’d rather rehab with the team, and the team would rather the players rehab with them as well. The MLBPA has said it will put together workout camps in Arizona and Florida, if necessary, and most players have a place where they work out in the offseason anyway. They just can’t be in contact with the team now.

Players can play in other leagues

During the lockout players are free to go play in independent leagues, winter ball leagues, even professional leagues overseas. If the lockout extends into April and Giancarlo Stanton wants to go play for the Yakult Swallows in Japan, he can, and the Yankees can’t stop him. During the most recent NHL lockout a ton of players went to play in Europe and Russia. There’s precedent.

Will anyone actually go play overseas during the lockout? I have no idea. I’m sure some guys will play winter ball, but at this point in the offseason, if they were going to play winter ball, they’d be doing it already. I don't think anyone is going to suddenly start playing winter ball. Hopefully the lockout doesn’t extend into Spring Training and the regular season. If it does, maybe it pushes a few fringe roster guys overseas so they can make some money.

Minor leagues should continue

Based on past work stoppages, it should be business as usual for the minor leagues during the lockout. The only difference is 40-man roster players won’t be available to minor league teams. There are 12 players on the Yankees’ 40-man roster I’d expect to begin 2022 in the minors:

• Catchers: none
• Infielders: Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza
• Outfielders: Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira
• Pitchers: Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gomez, Ron Marinaccio, Luis Medina, Stephen Ridings, Clarke Schmidt, JP Sears

MLB clubs will run a full minor league Spring Training and the players who participate won’t be seen as crossing the picket line like the 1995 replacement players because they’re not union members. The minor league season is scheduled to begin April 5th and games will go on even if the lockout is ongoing. Maybe ESPN and MLB Network will broadcast a few.

For at least another few weeks it will feel like a regular offseason, just with fewer rumors and transactions. That’s sorta the problem with an offseason lockout. There’s no urgency. This could drag on a while. We made it through the pandemic shutdown last year and we’ll get through the lockout this year. I still have a bunch of hot stove stuff on my list to write about, plus MLB and the MLBPA will give us fodder. For now though, baseball has come to a halt, and it feels like MLB wanted this to happen.

2. Love me non-tender. The non-tender deadline came and went Tuesday night and it was a pretty standard non-tender deadline. Nothing too crazy. 41 players were non-tendered this year, down from 59 last year and 53 the year before. It matches the 41 non-tenders three years ago. Let’s break down everything that happened at the deadline, shall we?

Andujar, Sanchez, Voit remain

As expected, the Yankees tendered contracts to Miguel Andujar, Gary Sanchez, and Luke Voit (and everyone else). Those three were their only serious non-tender candidates. Keeping them is fairly low risk. The Yankees could still find another catcher at some point this offseason and dump Sanchez, and only owe him 30 days termination pay. Same with Voit and first base.

I imagine the Yankees will push Voit aggressively in trades once the lockout ends and the universal DH becomes a permanent thing. Andujar is relatively inexpensive depth and you can’t cut Sanchez and figure out the catching situation later. The catching market is so bleak. Find a new catcher then dump Sanchez, not the other way around. For now, all three guys remain.

Gittens released, signs in Japan

The Yankees’ one non-tender wasn’t really a non-tender: Chris Gittens was released over the weekend, before the non-tender deadline, so he could sign with a team in Japan. Yahoo! Japan (via Sung Min Kim) reports Gittens will sign with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, Masahiro Tanaka’s team. No word on the contract, though I’m sure he’ll make more than he would have in Triple-A.

Gittens, 28 in February, has enormous power and he’s going to see a lot of 88-89 mph fastballs in Japan. NPB’s single-season home run record is 60 by Wladimir Balentien in 2013. I don’t think Gittens will hit that many dingers, but it wouldn’t shock me if we check in next August and he’s hitting something like .300/.450/.650 (Gittens is a career .301/.440/.644 hitter in Triple-A).

With Gittens gone the Yankees have an open 40-man roster spot. They’ll use it whenever they get around to adding a shortstop and maybe even some pitching. Gittens is gone and I hope he hits a lot of dingers and makes a lot of money in Japan. Everyone else on the 40-man remains.

German, Luetge, Urshela sign

The Yankees signed three arbitration-eligible players prior to the non-tender deadline. Sometimes a pre-non-tender deadline signing means the team gave the player a “sign this or we’ll non-tender you” ultimatum, but I don’t think that was the case here. It probably had more to do with the players wanting peace of mind before the lockout. From the Associated Press:

• Gio Urshela: $6.55M ($6.2M projected)
• Domingo German: $1.75M ($2.1M projected)
• Lucas Luetge: $905,000 and he’s thrilled ($1.1M projected)

All three guys are within the error bars of MLBTR’s arbitration model. The model isn’t perfect, but it’s pretty dang good. As a reminder, pre-arbitration and arbitration contracts are not guaranteed. Players can be released prior to Opening Day and owed only 30 days or 45 days termination pay depending on the exact timing of the release.

The Yankees still have 13 arbitration-eligible players to sign: Sanchez ($7.9M projected), Voit ($5.4M), Andujar ($1.7M), Aaron Judge ($17.1M), Joey Gallo ($10.2M), Gleyber Torres ($5.9M), Jordan Montgomery ($4.8M), Jameson Taillon ($4.7M), Chad Green ($4.1M), Jonathan Loaisiga ($1.7M), Wandy Peralta ($1.7M), Kyle Higashioka ($1.2M), and Clay Holmes ($1M).

There’s no word on what the lockout means for the arbitration filing deadline (scheduled for Jan. 14th) and arbitration hearings (late January to mid February), but they’ll probably be postponed like everything else. Whenever they happen, the Yankees will have quite a bit of housekeeping to take of in addition to improving the roster (assuming they do that at some point).

Boyd and Rodriguez non-tendered

As always, several interesting enough players around the league were non-tendered this year. Here’s the full list. The two getting the most attention: Matt Boyd and Rich Rodriguez. They are this year’s Archie Bradley and David Dahl, the non-tendered recognizable names who were big deals once upon a time and you can dream on being big deals at some point in the future.

Boyd, 31 in February, had a pretty great first half a few years ago but has generally provided No. 4-5 starter caliber innings, albeit with good spin and exit velocity allowed rates. His big strikeout rate increase a few years ago (30.2% in 2019) didn’t last (20.9% since), and he’s always been very home run prone. Here’s the obligatory Statcast profile:

Two things about Boyd. First, his slider is his top secondary pitch and it has 68% less horizontal movement than the average left-handed slider, and the Yankees are all about big sweepy sliders. For example, they helped Nestor Cortes and Mike King overhaul their sliders this year and they finished with two of the top moving sliders in the league. Do they think they can help Boyd the way they helped Cortes and King?

And two, Boyd’s injured. He had surgery to repair his flexor tendon in September and there is no known timetable for his return. The Tigers said they were “hopeful” he would pitch in 2022 when they announced the surgery and there have been no updates since. Miles Mikolas had flexor tendon surgery last July 28th and he returned to MLB game action this May 22nd, so he missed 10 months. Based on that, Boyd might be able to return soon after the All-Star break?

The Yankees rolled the dice on two injured pitchers last offseason (Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon), though they were very far along with their rehab and expected to be ready for Opening Day. Boyd is early in his rehab and not an Opening Day option. I think that changes the calculus for them quite a bit. The Yankees haven’t done one of these “sign an injured guy and rehab him for a long time” signings in a while. Since David Aardsma in 2011.

Players like Boyd often get the “high risk/high reward” label, but I feel like this is more of a “high risk/medium reward” situation. Maybe the Yankees can help him improve his slider and level up, otherwise he’s just a back-end starter who occasionally dominates but usually leaves you wanting more. I don’t think the Yankees will commit money and a roster spot to a guy early in the process of rehabbing a major injury, and I’m fine with it. I’d like more certainty.

As for Rodriguez, he was part of my 2020-21 Offseason Plan, and he was a completely different pitcher after the foreign substance crackdown in June. His spin rates cratered …

… and his strikeout rate went from 36.6% last season to 12.7% (!) after the crackdown. The guy went from near-elite closer to middle reliever to off the postseason roster to non-tendered in five months. The Yankees are plenty deep in the bullpen and I wouldn’t give Rodriguez a second thought. He is very ordinary without the sticky stuff.

As for other non-tenders, righty Juan Minaya walks a ton of guys but fits the Yankees profile as a power changeup reliever, so maybe there’s a fit there. Infielder Johan Camargo had what looked like a breakout year in 2018, but he hasn’t hit a lick since (58 wRC+). The Phillies signed him to a Major League deal before the lockout and I was thinking he’d be a minor league contract candidate. Alas. Righty Trey Wingenter completed his Tommy John surgery rehab in August and is a classic max effort fastball/slider reliever. He’s since signed a minor league deal with the Reds though, so forget him. Not much else to see among this year’s non-tenders.

Boyd and Rodriguez are the most notable non-tenders this year and you can see both fitting the Yankees if you squint enough. Post-sticky stuff Rodriguez probably isn’t moving the needle and the Yankees are loaded in the bullpen anyway. Boyd’s injury limits his potential impact (and if he wasn’t hurt, he wouldn’t have been non-tendered) though there’s no such thing as too much pitching depth. Just know the Yankees signing an injured pitcher and sitting on him most of the year while he rehabs would be out of character.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Less than four hours before the lockout Marcus Stroman signed a two-year, $50M contract with the Cubs that includes a $21M player option. His market must not have been very strong, huh? When’s the last time a 30-year-old coming off a very good season and at the peak of his earning potential signed a short-term deal with a rebuilding team? The Yankees have never been Stroman fans as far as I know and I have no reason to think they were in on him, short-term or otherwise. Just thought that was a pretty obvious “I’ll take what I can get before the lockout” contract … In other Cubs news, they signed Clint Frazier. One year and $1.5M guaranteed. I hope he stays healthy and crushes it. He’ll be in their outfield mix with Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, and Rafael Ortega. Should be plenty of platoon opportunities with Heyward and Ortega, at the very least … And finally, remember when I joked MLB brought the rocket ball back for the Field of Dreams Game? Turns out the league secretly used two different baseballs this year. Bradford William Davis (subs. req’d) reports MLB used both the deadened ball (the ball we were told we’d get in 2021) and the rocket ball this year, and MLB admits it. The league says they used leftover rocket balls to cover for production shortages, but some had 2021 stamps, meaning they were manufactured this year. MLB made and used new balls in the middle of the season, didn’t tell anyone, then lied about it when confronted. In the past, this would have been a massive scandal (did they intentionally juice specific games?), particularly with MLB getting into bed with gambling outlets. Japan’s baseball commissioner resigned over an identical scandal in 2013. Instead, this is just another day in Rob Manfred’s MLB. The league has so little credibility right now with the baseball changing constantly, the various cheating scandals, so many teams tanking, etc.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

C.J. asks: This is probably wishful thinking, but do you think it’s possible that Hal S. authorized Brian Cashman to spend significant money in free agency, but on the condition that he wait until after the new CBA is agreed to?

Everything we know about Hal Steinbrenner and the way the Yankees have operated under him tells us no, this is not what’s happening. And what difference would waiting make anyway? It would only make sense if Hal decided to spend after seeing the new Collective Bargaining Agreement terms. Being okay with spending but only after a certain date would be silly. You’re just cutting yourself off from the front end of the market.

Like it or not -- and I hate it -- the Yankees are throwing away their market advantages and intentionally level the playing field. Why? Because Hal says so, and he’s the boss. Maybe he’s pocketing the money, maybe he doesn’t like hearing the Yankees buy championships. Whatever it is, it’s dumb. The Yankees operate like a pitcher with a 125 mph fastball who only throws 10 fastballs a start. Why not use your greatest advantage more? Beats me. Ask Hal.

Paul asks: Putting age/contract/etc. aside, based solely on talent at their current ability level: would you prefer Freeman or Olson as your starting 1B next year?

Freddie Freeman, and I don’t think it’s close either. I love Matt Olson, but Freeman’s track record as an elite hitter is much longer, and he doesn’t give anything away on defense. Olson’s track record as a top tier hitter is basically just one year, and who knows whether his strikeout rate improvement will last? There are no such questions with Freeman. He’s great.

If there were a way to get Freeman for 2022 and 2022 alone, it would be amazing. There’s not though. If you want him, you’ll have to give him a big 5-6 year deal, and I’m not keen on the Yankees paying big for a first baseman’s age 32 to 36-37 seasons (even a great first baseman like Freeman) when there are so many other holes on the roster. At key positions too, like shortstop.

The Athletics seem desperate to unload salary, so get Olson and his two years of control for a few non-elite prospects, and you have the flexibility to address all your other needs (since money is clearly a factor in the way the Yankees build their roster) without being locked into anything long-term. Freeman’s the better player though. I’d take him over Olson next year and the next five years too.

Christopher asks: With the Reds purging payroll, what about Joey Votto for 1st? If he were a FA I'd be calling for them to sign him for 2/50 he has left.

Votto has 5-and-10 no-trade protection and he’s been pretty adamant about not only wanting to finish his career with the Reds, but being perfectly content to walk away and retire once he feels he can not play the game at a high level. So this question is just a hypothetical (aren’t they all hypotheticals?). I don’t think Votto is attainable. He wants to stay in Cincinnati.

The Reds are indeed purging payroll (they gave away Tucker Barnhart and Wade Miley) and it’s actually $57M they owe Votto the next two years ($25M salary both years plus a $7M buyout of his 2024 club option). There would be no easier way for Cincinnati to trim payroll than trading Votto. They’d shed about 20% of their payroll in one fell swoop.

Votto, 38, is a hitting savant who has made constant adjustments throughout his career to stay productive. He hit .266/.375/.563 (140 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 129 games around a broken thumb this year, and he’s still a good defensive first baseman. Votto strikes out more now than he did earlier in his career (23.8% in 2021), though it’s not an excessive strikeout rate. Look at this:

Whether he actually gets into Cooperstown is another conversation, but I think Votto is a Hall of Fame caliber hitting genius, one I would trust to be productive during his age 38-39 seasons despite the obvious risk. Maybe he’s not a 140 wRC+ hitter the rest of his career. But I could see him putting up .350 OBPs with 25 homers another two seasons. Sure. I think that’s doable.

If it were up to me, I’d say go for it. The remaining money and Cincinnati’s clear intention to cut payroll leads me to believe it would not require a significant package to get Votto, so pick him up in what amounts to a salary dump, and let him do his thing. I would enjoy this:

1. 2B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Joey Votto
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5-9. Everyone else

The remainder of Votto’s contract is essentially the contract the Yankees did not want to give Justin Verlander. They offered Verlander one year and $25M, but wouldn’t go the second year, even as a player option (meaning there was at least a chance they’d avoid it). Based on that, I don’t think they’d go for Votto, even though he’s a healthy hitter rather than a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery. Again, this won’t happen, but did it sure is fun to think about.

Jerry asks: I really like the Mets’ signings. Very Red Sox-like circa 2013-2018. Solid veterans on shorter contracts (Napoli, Victorino, Pearce, etc). My question is, if you were Cashman, what veteran FAs would you sign for 2 years?

The two-year deal market is a weird one. The player is too good to have to settle for a one-year contract but also not good enough to get a long-term deal. He has to thread the needle just right. I guess you could gussy it up with an opt out or an option to turn a two-year deal into a one-year deal with an insurance policy, but true two-year deals are more rare than you’d think (for non-relievers, anyway).

Here are the unsigned free agents and contract projections. Players I’d give a two-year contract (a straight two-year deal, not one year with an option or two years with an opt out, etc.) include:

• LHP Tyler Anderson (2 years, $14M projected): Big time exit velocity suppression guy who ideally would slot in as the third or fourth best starter on a contending team.
• RHP Kenley Jansen (2 years, $24M): He’s still great and he'd give the Yankees a 2023 high leverage option after most of the bullpen hits free agency next winter. Also would free me up to trade a reliever or two to address other needs now.
• OF Tommy Pham (2 years, $20M projected): Put him in left and move Joey Gallo to center. Still gets on base a bunch and the underlying contact quality data is strong.
• RHP Michael Pineda (2 years, $20M projected): Frustrating as hell, but every so often he’ll give you greatness, and few players in the two-year market can say that.
• 3B Kyle Seager (2 years, $24M projected): Neither Carlos Correa nor Trevor Story is signing a two-year deal and the one-year stopgap shortstops stink. So, sign a third baseman and put Gio Urshela at short. Don’t love it, but it’s better than the alternatives.

That’s $51M a year for five players, which would take the Yankees payroll to $270M or so. I still would not have a first baseman, however (Anthony Rizzo is projected for three years), nor would I have a natural shortstop. The two-year market has limited options at those positions, unfortunately.

Keep an eye on Anderson. He’s a sinker/changeup guy who limits hard contact and the Yankees have a thing for that profile now. Supposedly they asked about him at the trade deadline this year, though the Mariners beat them to the punch. I have a hard time believing the Yankees won’t add a pitcher this winter and he seems like a decent enough back-end candidate.

Rich asks: Recently there's been chatter about the Yankees monitoring rather than actively pursuing the top shortstop free agents. If they're content in waiting to see if Peraza or Volpe develop into major league caliber players, could a reunion with Didi Gregorius happen?

The Phillies would probably give Didi Gregorius away. They might even attach a sweetener to unload the $14.5M they owe him next year. Didi was so bad this past season. He hit .209/.270/.370 (68 wRC+) with disastrous defensive numbers. This is hideous:

Gregorius turns 32 in February, so he’s not old. Maybe he can bounce back next season in a familiar setting with a team he knows? I can’t say I’m eager to find out. The sweetener would have to be really sweet to get me interested in Sir Didi at this point in his career. The Yankees need to do better than “well, we hope this guy bounces back" at shortstop in 2022.

I will say this: if the Yankees are dead set on a cheap stopgap shortstop, they’re probably going to be mediocre next season, and if they’re going to be mediocre, I’d at least like them to roster players I enjoy. I’d rather watch Gregorius be bad than Andrelton Simmons be bad, you know? I’d rather not watch anyone be bad, but if I have to watch a mediocre team, at least be mediocre and fun. Mediocre and boring is the worst.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)