November 30th, 2021: Hot Stove, Non-Tender Deadline, Baez, Cain

I skip one post for Thanksgiving and all hot stove hell breaks loose. At least the lockout is coming tomorrow to put a halt to all the fun. Can’t have fans getting too excited now. Nothing better represents the state of Major League Baseball than teams energizing fans with a flurry of hot stove activity in a way they haven’t in years, only to rip it away and shut the sport down for who knows how long. Just perfect. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Yankees sit on the sidelines. Boy, I did not expect almost all the top free agents to sign before the lockout. I thought teams would use the work stoppage to muscle players into below market contracts in the days leading up to Spring Training. Instead, 13 of the top 25 free agents by projected 2022 WAR are already off the board, including eight of the top 13.

It seems the Yankees didn’t expect the top free agents to sign before the lockout either, because they sat on the sidelines the last few days. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are Rangers, Max Scherzer and Starling Marte are Mets, Kevin Gausman is a Blue Jay, Robbie Ray is a Mariner, and a whole lotta pretty good free agents are Not Yankees.

What are the Yankees thinking? What’s their plan? What was their plan? Seems to me their plan is/was to wait until after the lockout to see what bargains shake loose because that’s what a Very Smart Team would do. That plan is still valid, I guess, though with so many top free agents no longer available, it’s now a pretty bad plan. Their options will be limited.

Feels like one of two things happened. Either the Yankees straight up misread the market and got caught with their pants down as free agents came off the board, or they have no intention of being a major player in free agency. It’s very likely the latter, and it fits perfectly with their recent pattern of complacency. No rush to get better, no urgency. We’re fine. The team is good.

They’re not good though. I mean, they are good, but they’re not great. The Yankees were the fourth best team in the AL East this year (fourth in run differential, fourth in position player WAR, fourth in runs scored, on and on) and they’ve done nothing but subtract from the roster so far this winter. They have so many needs and yet nothing. The market passed the Yankees right by.

Seager and Semien signing with the same team reduces the chances one of the remaining top free agent shortstops has to settle for a one-year deal. Two players came off the board but only one suitor. Carlos Correa remains available and he is the Yankees’ only chance to add a difference-maker for nothing but cash. I’m not getting my hopes up. We know how this will go.

2018: We can’t sign Bryce Harper because we have to lock up Aaron Judge.

2021: We can’t sign Carlos Correa because we never bothered to lock up Aaron Judge.

2024: We can’t sign Juan Soto because we locked up Aaron Judge and now he’s not as good as he used to be.

For what it’s worth, Andy Martino says the Yankees were not involved in the Scherzer race and that is unacceptable, full stop. He’s old, yeah, but he’s still great! And it’s just money! And a short-term deal! Why aren’t the Yankees after a player like this when they claim to be trying to win a World Series? Needing a shortstop isn’t a good answer. They can do two things at once.

Bringing Aaron Boone back was very telling. It told us the Yankees are content with the status quo, content with the mediocrity they’ve become. The current core has as many ALCS trips (2) as players in the Opening Day lineup who were so washed they retired in the middle of the season (Jay Bruce and Troy Tulowitzki). What are we even doing here?

Maybe I’m overreacting. The Dodgers and Giants haven’t done anything notable the last few days either. Ditto the Astros, Red Sox, and White Sox. So much of the recent free agent activity was tied up in the Mets and Rangers. Those two teams went bonkers, a few other teams made moves, and that’s it. It’s not like the Yankees were the lone team to sit out.

But I don’t care about those other teams. The Dodgers should be a dynasty and they’re fixin’ to come out of this era with one title in a fake ass 60-game season. The Astros and Red Sox are tainted champions. The White Sox are an AL Central fraud. Congrats to the Giants for getting career years out of all your 30-somethings this season. I’m sure that’ll happen again.

I don’t care about those teams and them sitting out free agency does not make it okay that the Yankees sat out free agency. The Yankees have multiple obvious needs to address, significant needs like three of the four up-the-middle positions plus rotation help, because my dudes, this ain’t it:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Jordan Montgomery
3. RHP Jameson Taillon (whenever he comes back from ankle surgery)
4. RHP Luis Severino (on whatever post-Tommy John surgery workload plan)
5. RHP Domingo German (1.56 HR/9 despite a deadened ball somehow)
6. LHP Nestor Cortes
7. RHP Mike King (much better as a reliever)

With the exception of the terminally online Marcus Stroman, all the top free agent starters have signed. To improve the rotation the Yankees will either do the “he could be great if he stays healthy” thing (again), or they’ll have to trade prospects to solve a problem they could have thrown money at (again). Just one time could the Yankees smash the money machine go brrrr button and sign a reliable starter? Cole and reclamation projects is getting old.

For as much as I bitch and moan about the Yankees, they are far too smart to have the recent free agent spree sneak up on them. They weren’t caught off guard. They knew it was coming, they sat out, and they’re planning to address their needs -- their very many needs -- later in the offseason, after the lockout and after most of the best players are accounted for.

I can’t remember the last time I was this down on the Yankees. The 2021 Yankees were one of the least enjoyable Yankees teams of my lifetime, and I foolishly expected them to attack the offseason and make a significant effort to improve. Instead, it’s the status quo. Boone returned and the organization is taking the same passive approach. No matter how much I hope they will, the Yankees just aren’t going to act like the Yankees should. They’re just another team.

2. Latest hot stove news. My unofficial tally says MLB teams have handed out $1.82 billion in new money in November (free agent contracts plus extensions), including $1.27 billion since Thanksgiving. For a group of people about to cry poor and shut the sport down, the owners don’t seem all that worried about spending money, do they? Funny how that works. Let’s go over the latest and greatest from the hot stove league.

Yankees expected to ask about Kiner-Falefa

In the least surprising news ever, the Yankees are expected to reach out to the Rangers about incumbent shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, reports Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). Kiner-Falefa has been pushed out of the picture by the Corey Seager and Marcus Semien signings, though Texas could plausibly keep him as a super utility guy.

Kiner-Falefa, 27 in March, has had an unusual career path. He was drafted in 2013, did not hit his first pro home run until 2017, transitioned from the infield to catcher 2016, moved back to the infield when he reached the big leagues in 2018, won a Gold Glove at third base in 2020, then moved to shortstop in 2021. He’s played the three non-first base infield positions extensively.

The bat is light. Kiner-Falefa authored a .271/.312/.357 (85 wRC+) line with eight homers and 20 steals this past season, though he rarely swings and misses (13.3% strikeouts and 6.1% swinging strikes), which would be a nice change of pace for the offense. The glove is really good. Above-average at short and Gold Glove caliber at third.

Kiner-Falefa has two years of control remaining (MLBTR projects a $4.9M salary in 2022) and that lines up perfectly with the Yankees’ master “don’t block Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe because we have such a great track record of helping young players reach their ceiling” plan. Kiner-Falefa at short in 2022 and 2023, then turn it over to the kids. That kinda thing.

Two years of a bad bat/great glove infielder fetches what in a trade? There’s basically no good trade benchmark for this kind of player. 1.5 years (i.e. two postseason runs) of Jonathan Schoop netted 2.5 years of a bench guy (Jonathan Villar), a fading top 10 team prospect (Luis Ortiz), and a non-top-30 team prospect (Jean Carmona). Maybe that’s in the ballpark? I dunno.

A few months ago these two teams spent who knows how long working on the Joey Gallo trade, so Texas knows the Yankees system pretty well. Everson Pereira, Clarke Schmidt, and Randy Vasquez were rumored to be in early iterations of the Gallo trade. Maybe that’s who Texas would want for Kiner-Falefa, or some combination of those guys?

Even with all the recent free agent additions, the Rangers are still very bad, and they need help everywhere but the middle infield. Kiner-Falefa would be an expensive utility guy -- Texas has a top third base prospect (Josh Jung) set to arrive next year -- and he has trade value. They could keep him, sure, but I think a trade is more likely. He’s fine and the Yankees are all about fine these days. I reckon this is not the last time we’ll hear them connected to Kiner-Falefa.

Yankees have checked in on Simmons

Took a little longer than I expected but the obligatory Andrelton Simmons rumor has arrived. Jon Heyman says the Yankees are among the teams to check in on Simmons, who they’ve wanted since his Atlanta days. The 32-year-old is one of the worst hitters in baseball (70 wRC+ since 2019) and it’s been about four years since he was the historically great defender he used to be.

I said this two weeks ago and I’ll say it again: we’re going to hear every possible angle with the shortstop search before it’s all said and done. They want this guy, that guy, they’ll spend big, they’re going cheap, etc. etc. It was only a matter of time until we got a Simmons rumor and here it is. Not a big deal. As long as the Yankees don’t sign him, that is. Hardest of passes.

Stallings traded to Marlins

Jacob Stallings, one of the very few decent catchers available via trade or free agency this offseason, was dealt from the Pirates to the Marlins yesterday, the teams announced. Here is the return and here is my best guess at the Yankees equivalent:

• RHP Kyle Nicholas (Ken Waldichuk)
• OF Connor Scott (Elijah Dunham)
• RHP Zach Thompson (Nestor Cortes)

Thompson was a minor league free agent last offseason, then he had 75 good innings this year and became a tradeable player. Scott’s a former first round pick (No. 13 overall in 2018), though his star has dimmed, and he’s just an okay prospect now. So, the Pirates traded Stallings for a big league depth arm and two second tier prospects. Sounds about right.

I’m not a Stallings guy and I am totally fine with the Yankees passing on him even with the modest prospect cost. There’s no chance at greatness with Stallings. He’s a rich man’s Chris Stewart and I don’t need to relive that experience. The Yankees can lower their standards. I refuse.

This trade does two things. One, it takes a potential catcher trade target off the board, and two, it takes away a potential landing spot for Gary Sanchez. Miami was one of the few teams with both the need and apparent desire to upgrade behind the plate, and now they’ve done that. Moving on from Sanchez while actually getting something in return is looking less and less likely.

O’s listening on Mullins

According to Heyman, the Orioles are listening to offers for Cedric Mullins, the first 30/30 player in O’s history (!). The asking price is high, as you’d expect. On one hand, there’s no harm in listening to offers for any player. That’s the general manager’s job. On the other hand, the O’s are five years into a rebuild and they finally have a top player at a premium position to build around. Mullins should be an extension candidate, not a trade candidate.

Mullins turned only 27 last month and he hit .291/.360/.518 (136 wRC+) with 30 homers and 30 steals on the nose this season, plus he had strong strikeout (18.5%) and swinging strike (8.2%) rates. Over the summer I heard secondhand that the O’s would have given Mullins away in Spring Training. They didn’t see the breakout coming (and apparently no one else did either). The breakout, by the way, is tied to hitting left-handed only. Mullins gave up switch-hitting this year and exploded.

Needless to say, Mullins would be close to the ideal center field addition for the Yankees. They need all the things he provides (lefty bat, contact, power, speed, defense, etc.) and he’s under team control through 2025. As with Bryan Reynolds (a slightly better fit than Mullins because he’s a switch-hitter, I think), the Christian Yelich trade works as a decent benchmark for Mullins. The Yelich trade package:

• OF Lewis Brinson: Top 20 global prospect
• OF Monte Harrison: Top 75 global prospect
• IF Isan Diaz: Top 5 team prospect
• RHP Jordan Yamamoto: Non-top-30 team prospect

The Yelich trade has worked out about as poorly as possible for the Marlins but they got a pretty good haul at the time. The Orioles could demand a package built around Anthony Volpe and in no way would it be unreasonable. And if the Yankees are going to trade Volpe, they should trade him for someone like Mullins. An All-Star at a premium position with long-term control.

Will the O’s trade Mullins within the division? Who knows. I guess it depends what’s on the table and what the other offers look like. At minimum, the Yankees must call and see what the Orioles want for Mullins. You have to do your due diligence and at least ask. When in doubt, bet against a blockbuster trade happening, but if the O’s are listening, the Yankees should check in.

3. Non-tender deadline. Late last week MLB and the MLBPA agreed to move the non-tender deadline up one day to 8pm ET tonight. It was originally scheduled for 8pm ET tomorrow, four hours before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires. Moving it up a day unclutters the calendar a bit, and gives non-tendered players a little time to look for work before the lockout.

The Yankees answered one of their most significant non-tender questions two weeks ago when they designated Clint Frazier for assignment, then later released him. Here are the players most in the non-tender crosshairs prior to the deadline tonight.

Miguel Andujar

Projected 2022 salary: $1.7M

There could -- could -- be a spot for Andujar on the bench next season. Bring in a new shortstop and a new center fielder, use Gio Urshela as the backup shortstop, move Aaron Hicks to the bench and DJ LeMahieu into a super utility role, and the Yankees would still have an open bench spot to play with. Something like this:

Starters
C Gary Sanchez
1B ???
2B Gleyber Torres
SS ???
3B Gio Urshela
LF Joey Gallo
CF ???
RF Aaron Judge
DH Giancarlo Stanton

Bench
C Kyle Higashioka
IF DJ LeMahieu
OF Aaron Hicks
???

Andujar could fill that final bench spot as a first base, third base, left field, DH guy. Also, Andujar has a minor league option remaining. The Yankees could stash him to Triple-A. He would be a well paid Triple-A player, but the Yankees can afford it. They’re going to be over the luxury tax threshold anyway, right? High-priced depth players is one way to use that financial might.

The Yankees could also keep Andujar through the non-tender deadline, then look to trade him to a National League club once the universal DH becomes official on the other side of the lockout. Worst case is you can’t find a trade and stash him in Triple-A. I know Andujar has fans in the organization, though that only goes so far. He’s at risk of being non-tendered even though you can see a path to him being on the MLB roster next year.

Prediction: Andujar stays. I think the Yankees hang onto him through the deadline tonight.

Chris Gittens

Projected 2022 salary: League minimum (whatever the new CBA says it is)

I was surprised Gittens survived the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline and I will be surprised if he survives the non-tender deadline. It’s not a money issue with him, it’s a roster spot issue. The Yankees have a full 40-man roster and will need to clear a spot anytime they do anything this offseason. Sign a shortstop, trade for a center fielder, claim a pitcher on waivers, whatever.

The Yankees obviously like something about Gittens (presumably his Stantonian exit velocities) given the fact he survived the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. A non-tender allows them to remove Gittens from the 40-man without exposing him to waivers, then they could re-sign him to a minor league contract with a big Triple-A salary (to get him to agree to the move beforehand) and keep him in the organization as a non-40-man player.

The non-tender/re-sign trick is not new. The Yankees did it with Slade Heathcott and Vicente Campos in 2014, and again with Domingo German in 2015. It would be the safest way to keep Gittens in the organization because it eliminates the waivers process. If he can get a big league deal and a 40-man spot with another team, good for him, but this is the best chance at keeping Gittens as a non-40-man player.

Prediction: Non-tender. Keeping Gittens beyond the non-tender deadline would tell us the Yankees don’t really care if they lose him on waivers later in the offseason, when they will inevitably need 40-man space.

UPDATE: Lindsey Adler reports the Yankees have released Gittens and he intends to sign with a team in Japan, so that takes care of that. Gittens is the type of Quad-A masher who could carve out a long career and make some good money over there. Good luck to him.

Lucas Luetge

Projected 2022 salary: $1.1M

I think Luetge’s safe and I’m only mentioning him here because every so often we get a surprise non-tender, like Alfredo Aceves in 2011 or David Adams in 2013. At the moment the Yankees have nine relievers (Luetge, Albert Abreu, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Clay Holmes, Mike King, Jonathan Loaisiga, Wandy Peralta, Joely Rodriguez) for eight bullpen spots, so maybe they see Luetge as expendable, and the trade market came up empty the last few weeks.

Prediction: Unless there’s something going on behind the scenes we don’t know about, similar to Aceves having a bad back and being a bit of a lunatic, Luetge will be tendered a contract.

Gary Sanchez

Projected 2022 salary: $7.9M

My boring take is if the Yankees were going to replace Sanchez behind the plate, they would’ve done it already, freeing them up to non-tender him and make a clean break, no strings attached. The free agent catching market is just awful though, and the trade possibilities are kinda blah (and even worse now that Jacob Stallings has been moved). Alternatives behind the plate are very, very limited.

And yet, Sanchez remains, which leads me to believe he’ll stick through the non-tender deadline because catcher is not a position where you want to get caught shorthanded. It’s better to keep Gary and not need him than need him and not have him, you know? The Yankees could always add a catcher later in the offseason and dump Sanchez. They couldn’t dump Sanchez now and then bring him back if nothing better comes along though. Once he’s gone, he’s gone.

Prediction: Sanchez stays unless the Yankees pull a new starting caliber catcher out of their hat in the next 12 hours or so.

Luke Voit

Projected 2022 salary: $5.4M

The Yankees made it pretty clear they’re done with Voit. He was great in August (.281/.352/.563 and 148 wRC+) and then they just stopped playing him in September despite needing offense, and that doesn’t happen unless the front office is okay with it. No matter what anyone with the organization says, Aaron Boone doesn’t have that kind of autonomy.

I see three possible outcomes with Voit:

1. Thank him for his service and non-tender him.
2. Keep him and trade him (after the universal DH becomes a thing?).
3. Keep him and play him at first base next season.

No. 3 seems very unlikely, no? Possible, sure, but very unlikely. I think it is far, far more likely the Yankees start next season with Sanchez at catcher than Voit at first base. It is much easier to find a new first baseman than a new catcher, particularly this offseason when both the free agent (Anthony Rizzo?) and trade (Matt Olson!) options are appealing.

No. 2 would be a gamble. Free agency will be flooded with viable DH candidates following the lockout because it’s always flooded with viable DH candidates, except this time players will be desperate given the truncated free agency timetable. Are you trading anything of value for Voit at $5.4M when you might be able to sign, say, Jorge Soler or Joc Pederson?

Of course, tendering Voit a contract doesn’t mean the Yankees would be obligated to keep him next year. They could tender him, look for a trade match, and if nothing materializes, they could dump him later. So the gamble with No. 2 is what, really? The Yankees tie up a 40-man spot for a few weeks and wind up releasing Voit later and still get nothing in return? That’s not so bad.

Prediction: I’m not very confident about this but I think Voit stays. When I say the gamble is tying up a 40-man spot for a few weeks, that’s not really a gamble at all. The lockout will bring a roster freeze, so this is a can that can be kicked down the road.

4. The case for Baez. One way or another, the Yankees will add a shortstop this offseason. They could go big or go cheap, but they’ll add a shortstop. I prefer Carlos Correa. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are off the board now though, and Trevor Story’s arm worries me. The last remaining high-end shortstop is Cub-turned-Met-turned-free agent Javy Baez.

Baez, 29 tomorrow, is a polarizing player who is equal parts electric, enigmatic, entertaining, and frustrating. He hit .265/.319/.494 (116 wRC+) with 31 home runs this past season, the third time in the last three 162-game seasons he hit at least 29 homers and was 10% better than the league average hitter. Let’s make the case the Yankees should sign him.

He provides what the Yankees need offensively

And also some of the things they don’t need offensively, mainly more strikeouts. This season Baez had a 33.6% strikeout rate and a 21.4% swinging strike rate. Only Joey Gallo (34.6%) and Miguel Sano (34.4%) struck out more than Baez, and no one was even close in swinging strike rate (Sal Perez was a distant second at 18.5%). Here’s a leaderboard:

In-Zone Contact Rate, 2018-21 (min. 1,500 plate appearances)
1. Joey Gallo: 71.6%
2. Franmil Reyes: 77.3%
3. Javy Baez: 77.6%
4. Teoscar Hernandez: 77.7%
5. Josh Donaldson: 78.0%
(MLB Average: 84.1%)

The absolute last thing the Yankees need right now is another high-strikeout hitter, especially another high-strikeout right-handed hitter. And the thing is, unlike Gallo and Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, Baez doesn’t walk. He had a 5.1% walk rate this year and it’s 4.8% for his career. His career high is a .326 OBP in 2018, when he hit .290. Yikes.

Enough about what Baez doesn’t do (make consistent contact, walk, etc.) though. Let’s talk about what he does do, because he does a lot of things. For starters, Baez has huge power, particularly for a dude listed at 6-foot-0 and 190 lbs. To steal a phrase from Brian Cashman, Baez’s bat speed is legendary, and when he makes contact, it is LOUD. Javy’s home run highlights are a blast.

There is an Alfonso Soriano quality to Baez. His plate discipline is poor and he’ll swing and miss a ton, but the ball explodes off his bat, and he’s going to wind up hitting 300+ homers just by pounding mistakes. The downside is you might get a season like last year, when Baez hit .203/.238/.360 (55 wRC+) during the pandemic season. The upside is pretty great though.

Furthermore, Baez is a stolen base threat (double digit steals in every full season of his career) and an aggressive baserunner who pushes the envelope to the point of recklessness. Despite the occasional TOOTBLAN, Baez has rated as an excellent baserunner every year of his career. The Yankees lack speed and overall baserunning acumen. Baez offers both qualities.

Also, Baez derives a lot of value from his hands, which is not something Statcast or any other system can quantify. His hands are lightning quick (the bat speed doesn’t come from nowhere) and he uses them to make quick tags on defense and creative slides on the bases. Like this. His hands and instincts have real value. Javy’s natural athleticism is out of this world.

The strikeouts and low OBP are at best eyesores and at worst a fatal flaw. Baez does offer big time power though, and you need that to contend in the AL East. He’s also a smart (and daring) baserunner, and the Yankees are completely devoid of a running attack. The Yankees wouldn’t need Baez to be the offensive centerpiece, necessarily. Just smash dingers from the bottom half of the order and run the bases like crazy. That’s all.

His defense is very good and very fun

The Mets moved Baez to second base in deference to his pal Francisco Lindor, but make no mistake, Baez is a legitimately above-average shortstop. He’ll never be 2019 good again (+31 DRS and +33 OAA!), but he has consistently rated as above average at short, including prior to the trade this year. Baez makes spectacular plays and has a rocket arm. His defense is very good and flashy and just fun in general. He’s a bit of a showman. I like it.

He’ll be cheaper than Correa and Seager

And maybe Story as well. Semien set the shortstop market at seven years and $175M, though that might have been a perfect storm signing. Semien is coming off a monster 45-homer season and the Rangers are desperate to get back into contention, so the stars aligned for an overpay. I’m not sure Semien moves the needle for Baez.

Buster Olney says Baez turned down an eight-year, $168M extension in Spring Training 2020, before the pandemic and one year after Javy was the NL MVP runner-up. A week ago I would have said Baez had no chance to get that much this offseason. Following the Semien deal, I dunno. Maybe he can get $20M+ across 7-8 years. It only takes one team, right?

I am confident Baez won’t get Correa or Seager money. Those two are younger and better than Baez, and their performances have been less volatile. They’ll get more and they deserve more. Baez will get paid well too! But he will be cheaper than those two, and if you want a shortstop and want to spend, say, $22M a year rather than $35M a year, Javy’s the guy.

Two other things to say about Baez. First, it seems he has been labeled as a “distraction” type in some corners of the internet, though it’s not really true. The thumbs down thing with the Mets this year was dumb but ultimately harmless. That’s the kinda thing the Yankees would squash before the manager’s postgame press conference but the Mets turn into a three-day story because they’re the Mets, and that’s what they do.

Baez has a reputation for being a popular teammate though, and he is active in the community. His younger sister, Noely, had spina bifida and died in April 2015, and since then Baez has done a ton of work with charities to help disabled children and things like that. Some people may not like his bat flips or celebrations or whatever, but don’t confuse that stuff for being a bad person.

And second, Baez is one of the most entertaining players in baseball. The aggressive swings, the speed, the baserunning, the bat flips, the defense, he’s must watch television. The Yankees can be boring at times, and Javy would bring an entertainment aspect they lack right now. Aaron Judge is really good! He’s also very boring. Baez’s style is not for everyone, but I enjoy it. The Yankees could use a little excitement.

Collectively, we all spend too much time focusing on what a player can’t do and coming up with reasons not to sign him. I’m absolutely guilty of that. Baez is the kind of player that requires the opposite perspective. You understand he’s flawed but appreciate all the other things he does at a really high level. It’s a rare power/speed/defense combination at age 29 and at a premium position. When Javy hits, he's a superstar because he is so good at everything else.

UPDATE: Jon Morosi reports Baez and the Tigers are nearing a six-year contract, so he's about to come off the board. That leaves Correa and Story as the only available top shortstops. The Angels, Astros, Cubs, Mariners, Nationals, and Phillies are among the shortstop needy teams with money to spend.  

5. Potential trade target: Lorenzo Cain. Early on this offseason Brian Cashman said the Yankees will “evaluate” the center field position, and it’s entirely possible their evaluation will determine the best course of action is standing pat and going into next season with Aaron Hicks in center. The post-Starling Marte free agent center field market is pretty terrible, after all.

It’s also possible the team’s evaluation will result in a new center fielder next year, or at least a new part-timer to share center field with Hicks. With free agency so barren, a trade is the best way to add a center fielder, and among those who could be available is Brewers ballhawk Lorenzo Cain. Does Cain make sense for the Yankees? Let’s dive in.

He’s the poor man’s Starling Marte

In many ways, really, but mostly offensively. Marte is a high contact righty who will take some walks and has 20-homer power and 30-stolen base ability (plus big baserunning value beyond steals). Cain is a high contact righty who will take some walks and has 10-homer power and 15-stolen base ability (plus good baserunning value beyond steals).

Cain, 36 in April, opted out of last season after five games and this year he hit .257/.329/.401 (97 wRC+) with strikeout (16.8%), walk (9.1%), and swinging strike (8.8%) rates right in line with his 2016-19 numbers (16.5%, 8.9%, 8.3%). The distribution of his offense was a little wonky. He did all his damage against righties and on the road. He didn’t hit lefties or at home.

vs. RHP: .275/.337/.434 (107 wRC+) with .308 BABIP in 208 PA
vs. LHP: .206/.308/.309 (71 wRC+) with .232 BABIP in 78 PA

at home: .235/.319/.294 (90 wRC+) with 3.7% HR/FB in 135 PA
on road: .275/.338/.493 (121 wRC+) with 16.7% HR/FB in 151 PA

That screams small sample size weirdness. From 2018-19, his first two full seasons with the Brewers, Cain was much better against lefties than righties (128 wRC+ vs. 95 wRC+), though he was better on the road than at home (107 wRC+ vs. 101 wRC+). Milwaukee is a pretty good place to hit. Usually Brewers players are better at home than on the road, but not Cain. Huh.

The surface stats are what they are. The under-the-hood numbers are much more important, especially with a player Cain’s age. Here are his core plate discipline and contact quality stats in the last three 162-game seasons (he had only 21 plate appearances before opting out last year, I’m fine ignoring them completely):

There’s a decline in exit velocity and a decline in hard-hit rate (percentage of batted balls over 95 mph), though they’re not enormous, and his 2021 rates are in line with the league average. Cain’s plate discipline is still really good. Similar to 2018-19 and better than league average. He doesn’t chase often, and when he swings at a pitch in the zone, he doesn’t miss often.

The classic tell-tale signs of slowing bat speed are an increase in chase rate, an increase in ground ball rate, and a decrease in exit velocity. Cain isn’t chasing or swinging and missing more often, and his ground ball rate has held steady (51.0% in 2021 after 52.4% from 2018-19). The exit velocity is down a bit but I wouldn’t say alarmingly so. That huge red flag isn’t there.

Of course, just because Cain didn’t show any plate discipline decline and only a little contact quality decline in 2021 doesn’t mean he won’t go off the cliff in 2022. That’s always the risk with players this age. Remember when Alfonso Soriano was great in 2013 and toast in 2014? The numbers just tell us Cain hasn’t started the fall off the cliff yet, not that it won’t happen in 2022.

Cain went 13-for-15 stealing bases in 2021, he took the extra base (first-to-third, etc.) close to 50% of the time (the league average is 40%), and the catch-all baserunning metric at FanGraphs had Cain as a top 30 baserunner (+4.0 runs) despite playing only 78 games (more on the missed time later). The Statcast numbers:

• 2018: 28.6 ft/s sprint speed and 4.18-second average home-to-first time
• 2019: 27.9 ft/s and 4.26 seconds
• 2021: 28.7 ft/s and 4.38 seconds
• MLB average: 27.0 ft/s and 4.30 seconds for a right-handed batter

Sprint speed is essentially the player’s maximum running speed and home-to-first time is, well, how long it takes the player to go home to first. Cain’s top end speed in 2021 was the same as 2018, so that’s good. His first-to-home time is declining though, which means it’s taking him a little longer to get to that top speed. Understandable given his age.

There’s also an instincts component to baserunning we can’t quantify, but I’m comfortable saying Cain has it just from watching him over the years. He was part of those Run Run Royals teams in 2014-15 that were very aggressive on the bases yet not reckless*. Cain’s speed is not truly elite, but he knows what he’s doing on the bases. He’s a real weapon there.

* One of my favorite plays of the last 10 years or so is Cain scoring from first on Eric Hosmer’s single in Game 6 of the 2015 ALCS. Jose Bautista airmailed the cutoff man and Cain just kept running, and it proved to be the ALCS-winning run. Here’s the video.

Like it or not, the Yankees have to hit home runs to win. Their ballpark and division make it so. Cain wouldn’t help in the power department, and he wouldn’t make them more left-handed either. He would help with almost everything else the offense lacks though, namely contact, speed, and baserunning. The Yankees lack all of that and Cain can provide it (unless he suddenly ages, of course).

His defense is still strong

Center field is a young player’s position and Cain is one of the rare 30-somethings who can play the hell out of center. His defensive stats have gone from elite to merely above-average over the years, which is perhaps a red flag, but even another step down in 2022 would make him an average defender rather than below average. The numbers quick:

• 2018: +20 DRS and +20 OAA in 1,180 innings
• 2019: +19 DRS and +14 OAA in 1,1177.1 innings
• 2021: +6 DRS and +5 OAA in 592.2 innings

There were 21 five-star catches* by outfielders this past season and Cain’s diving catch to save Milwaukee’s combined no-hitter in September was one of them. Here’s the video. Even at 35, Cain was an above-average defensive center fielder capable of making highlight reel plays in 2021. To date, he has been an outlier at the position given his age.

* Statcast grades each catch one through five stars based on how far the defender had to go, how hard the ball was hit, where it was hit, etc. Based on the degree of difficulty, basically. Here are all 21 of those five-star outfield catches, if you’re interested (no Yankees).

Cain has played a good amount of right field in his career (the Royals used to put him in right and Jarrod Dyson in center in the late innings for defense), though he’s been a center fielder exclusively since 2017. I don’t think he’d have much (any?) trouble moving to a corner in 2022, if necessary. He’s still a center fielder though. Cain plays the position very well even at his age.

The total package is a below-average (maybe average) hitter, an above-average baserunner, and an above-average defender at a premium position. The current version of Cain hits eighth or ninth for a contender while making an impact on the game in less obvious ways. His age makes him a huge decline risk, but the risk is mitigated by the one year remaining on his deal.

Cain also brings postseason chops. He has as many World Series appearances (two, 2014 and 2015 Royals) as the Yankees’ entire 40-man roster (Aroldis Chapman with the 2016 Cubs and Gerrit Cole with the 2019 Astros). Postseason experience doesn’t equal postseason success, but it’s nice to have. Cain’s been there, done that. He knows what to expect.

* Gio Urshela did not play for Cleveland in the 2016 World Series. He made his MLB debut in 2015, spent the entire 2016 season in Triple-A (not even a Sept. call up), then returned to the big leagues in 2017. Chapman and Cole are the only current Yankees to play in the World Series now that Brett Gardner and Anthony Rizzo are free agents.

Recent injuries are a red flag

Cain has been on the injured list three times in the last five years, and two of the three came in 2021. He missed two weeks with a groin strain in 2018 (eh, whatever), and this year he missed three weeks with a quad injury and close to two months with a hamstring strain. The two injuries limited Cain to 78 games and only 69 starts in center field.

Needless to say, a soon-to-be 36-year-old who makes his living with his legs (on the bases and in center field) suffering two leg injuries in one season is a red flag. The numbers say Cain can still play center field and play it very well, but what does his body say? Playing center field and covering that much ground may not be possible for 150+ games at Cain’s age.

Perhaps that’s where Cain and Hicks could help each other. Hicks has had injury problems and Cain is getting up there in age, and letting them share center field could be the ticket to keeping them both healthy and productive. You could platoon them (Hicks has been better against lefties than righties, for what it’s worth), but maybe a 50/50 split works best. Dunno. Just an idea.

Would the Brewers trade him?

Cain’s trade value is difficult to pin down. He has one year and $18M remaining on his contract*, so he’s not cheap, and he comes with fairly significant age risk. Players like that don’t get traded very often. Rental Nelson Cruz fetched two good but not great pitching prospects at age 41 this summer. The shape of Cruz’s production is very different from Cain’s, but maybe that works?

* Just to make sure I mention this somewhere: Cain’s actual salary is $18M next year, though his luxury tax hit is a more manageable $15.78M. His five-year, $80M contract carries a $16M average annual value, but deferrals lower the luxury tax hit a tad.

Three things to know. One, Cain has a five-team no-trade clause and we don’t know who those five teams are. Players will often put big market contenders on their no-trade list because those are the teams most likely to pursue them and most likely to pay to get them to waive it. Want me to accept a trade to the Yankees? Sure, just pick up my option or give me an extension. That kinda thing.

Two, we don’t even know whether the Brewers want to trade Cain. Avisail Garcia left as a free agent and their current outfield is Cain, a suddenly non-MVP version of Christian Yelich, and some combination of Jackie Bradley Jr., Mike Brosseau, Jace Peterson, and Tyrone Taylor in the other spot. Milwaukee needs to add an outfielder at this point, not subtract one.

And three, money matters. Including arbitration projections Cot’s has the Brewers with $117.4M on the books for 2022, which would be well above their $99.3M payroll in 2021 and the second highest payroll in franchise history ($122.5M in 2019). Yelich’s salary jumps from $14M to $26M and core players like Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, Omar Narvaez, and Brandon Woodruff are due significant arbitration raises (MLBTR’s $4M projection for Burnes was pre-Cy Young too).

The Brewers won the NL Central easily this past season and they’ve been to the postseason four consecutive years, so you could argue they should increase payroll and should have a franchise record payroll in 2022. This is when you go for it, right? When you have the Cy Young winner in his prime and others like Adames, Yelich, Woodruff, etc. Maybe they will up payroll.

I took a look around the Brewers corner of the internet and found a lot of chatter about payroll being tight and the club needing to clear money to make meaningful moves. Josh Hader is the most commonly mentioned trade candidate given his projected salary ($10M), the fact he'd bring a significant return, and Milwaukee’s ability to develop quality bullpen arms. I’m sure they’d give Bradley and the $17.5M they owe him (between 2022 salary and 2023 option buyout) away too.

Last week Brewers reporter Will Sammon (subs. req’d) answered a mailbag question about a potential Cain or Bradley salary dump trade, including the possibility that the Brewers would attach a pitcher (!) to help facilitate a deal (I imagine the sweetener portion was more about Bradley than Cain, but who knows). Here is the relevant portion of Sammon’s answer:

It’s a good thought, and, sure, there’s a chance (a salary dump trade happens), but I wouldn’t quite say there’s a high likelihood. Reasons to like Cain and/or Bradley exist. After Starling Marte (and not counting the versatile Chris Taylor), the best center fielder in the free-agent market by fWAR is Brett Gardner (2.0). Some of the (wishful, perhaps) thinking on the Brewers’ end is that Bradley, a Gold Glove finalist, surely has to be better offensively and Cain, when healthy, showed some flashes of productivity. Those caveats — banking on a streaky offensive profile for Bradley and better health for the 35-year-old Cain — are expensive when considering Cain will make $18 million and Bradley will make $9.5 million in 2022.

…

Are either of those two Brewers outfielders enough of an upgrade for teams with such a need? Which Brewers pitcher would you include? And for what in return? Even with some salary relief, the already-questionable outfield would weaken. If such a trade is part of a bigger plan, then I’d like it a lot more for Milwaukee; after 2022, Cain is a free agent.

Cain eats up more than 15% of Milwaukee’s projected 2022 payroll. Trading him would create an even greater need in the outfield, though it would also give the Brewers $18M to play with, plus Cain is a risky player given his age. Keep him and there’s a chance he falls off a cliff next year, and the small market Brewers are stuck paying $18M for a non-factor.

The Yankees offered Justin Verlander one year and $25M earlier this month, so we know they’re willing to do a big one-year deal for the right player. Is Cain the right player? I guess it depends what you have to give up in addition to money, right? There’s a pretty big difference between giving up good prospects to get Cain and getting him for next to nothing because the Brewers are desperate to dump his salary.

If you want the Starling Marte skill set without giving out a big money multi-year contract, Cain is a pretty excellent alternative. He’s not as good as Marte and he comes with age risk, but he gives you the same righty contact profile with speed and defense, and it’s a one-year deal. A one-year deal with a big salary, but a one-year deal. The Yankees can surely afford it.

On the field, I wouldn’t call Cain a perfect fit because he’d be another righty hitter and he carries considerable age risk. I do think he’s a good fit though. The trade cost and his availability are the great unknowns, but he brings contact, speed, defense, no long-term risk, and a lot of fun (Cain’s a lighthearted, easy to root for player). It works.

6. Remembering a random Yankee: Bobby Bonds. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a borderline Hall of Famer who wasn’t even the best player in his own family. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Bonds grew up in Southern California and signed with the Giants out of high school in 1964, the year before the first amateur draft. He got to pick his team. Four years later Bonds made his big league debut and he hit a grand slam in his first game (third at-bat). At the time, he was only the second player ever to hit a grand slam in his debut game (Bill Duggleby did it in 1898).

"I had three grand slams in a month at (Triple-A) Phoenix, and this is the fourth one in six times (at the plate with the bases loaded) this season," Bonds told Larry Schwartz after the game.

From 1969-74, Bonds was an all-around force for San Francisco, hitting .275/.357/.484 with 177 home runs and 247 stolen bases while playing 933 of 965 possible regular season games. He won three Gold Gloves, finished fourth in the MVP voting in 1971 and third in 1973. In 1973, Bonds was one homer short of becoming the first 40/40 player in history (39 homers and 43 steals).

The Giants went 72-90 in 1974 and after the season Bonds met with owner Horace Stoneham about a new contract, and apparently talks did not go well. “He’s finished. He’ll never play another game for me,” Stoneham told Milton Richman afterward, and Bonds officially hit the trade block. He was a bona fide star and in his prime at age 28.

The Yankees, meanwhile, went 89-73 in 1974 and finished two games behind the Orioles in the AL East. Believing Bonds could help put them over the top, George Steinbrenner and GM Gabe Paul made arguably the biggest one-for-one blockbuster trade in baseball history on Oct. 22nd, 1974: Bobby Murcer for Bobby Bonds.

“There’s one basic rule you have to follow when you make a trade,” Paul told the Toledo Blade following the trade, which was made on the first day of the old interleague trading period. “When you’ve got an objective, stick to it. Ours was to get a right-handed power hitter. Bonds fits that bill.”

Murcer himself was a star and only 28 at the time. He hit .299/.368/.478 with 90 homers and 45 steals from 1971-74, earning an All-Star Game selection and MVP votes each year. He was not happy about moving from center field to right in deference to random Yankee Elliott Maddox, however, prompting Paul to tell the Toledo Blade: “Funny, isn’t it? He’ll still have to play right field with the Giants. They’ve also got a Maddox (Garry) in center.”

“I thought I was dreaming when I first heard it,” Murcer told the Toledo Blade about the trade. “Gabe was asked earlier in the season if I might be traded. He said, ‘Yes, for Fenway Park and Hank Aaron.’ I guess they couldn’t get Fenway Park or Aaron, so they traded me for someone else.”

In addition to trading for Bonds, the Yankees signed Catfish Hunter and traded for Ed Herrmann during the 1974-75 offseason, and expectations were high going into 1975. The Yankees had not been to the World Series since 1964 or won it since 1962, and 1974 was the closest they’d come to returning to the postseason in quite some time.

“It's going to be an adjustment learning the pitchers in the American League, the different moves and what they do in different situations, but I think I can do it,” Bonds told Al Harvin in Spring Training. “I spoke with (manager) Bill Virdon and he said he was going to let me start off the season batting third. I didn't mind leading off because that was where the Giants felt they needed me the most.”

The Yankees started 1975 slowly and so did Bonds. He went 4-for-27 (.148) in the team’s first seven games (the Yankees won once) before erupting for three hits, including his first homer as a Yankee, in the eighth game of the season. Another home run followed two days later, then another two days after that. Bonds went 15-for-46 (.326) with four homers in 12 games to close out April.

The next two months were uneven for Bonds and the Yankees. He went 5-for-51 (.098) in his first 15 games in May and the team lost 10 times. Bonds then went 26-for-74 (.351) with 10 home runs in his next 17 games, and the Yankees won 13 times. As Bonds went, the Yankees went. Then, on June 7th, Bonds tore cartilage in his knee making a diving catch in Chicago.

“Normally I heal really, really quick,” Bonds told the New York Times about the injury. “I can't walk one day and maybe the next day I can play. But I don't know about now because I've never hurt my leg before. If it was my ankle, I could tell you for sure, because I've hurt that before. I just hope this is as quick as the other stuff. I hope I can play tomorrow, but there's got to be a lot of improvement.”

Bonds sat out six games to rest the knee, and when he returned, he fell into a 6-for-44 (.136) slump, during which the Yankees went 5-10. He took a .238/.332/.509 batting line with 20 home runs and 17 stolen bases into the All-Star break, and the Yankees were 45-41 and 3.5 games out in the AL East. Despite the low batting average, Bonds was selected to the All-Star Game as a starter. The American League starting lineup:

1. CF Bobby Bonds (Yankee)
2. 2B Rod Carew
3. C Thurman Munson (Yankee)
4. RF Reggie Jackson (future Yankee)
5. LF Joe Rudi
6. 3B Graig Nettles (Yankee)
7. 1B Gene Tenace
8. SS Bert Campaneris (future Yankee)
9. LHP Vida Blue

Following the All-Star break Bonds went on a monster tear that saw him go 41-for-128 (.320) with 11 stolen bases in 33 games. The Yankees, however, went 16-17 in those 33 games and fell out of the division race. Virdon was fired in early August and replaced by Billy Martin (it was his first stint as Yankees manager).

Bonds continued to produce and the Yankees continued to slide out of the AL East race. He hit .318/.445/.648 in September and slugged six home runs in the final seven games. The Yankees went 16-10 in the season’s final month, but it wasn’t enough, and they finished well out of the race at 83-77. They added Bonds and Hunter in the offseason and won six fewer games with them in 1975 than they did without them in 1974.

All told, Bonds authored a .270/.375/.512 (151 OPS+) batting line with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 1975, earning him down ballot MVP support. Bonds became the first player in history to have three separate 30/30 seasons, and his 137 strikeouts set a new single-season franchise record (Mickey Mantle held the previous record with 126 in 159).

The Yankees set out to make more changes in the offseason, and despite his individual success, those changes included Bonds. On Dec. 11th, 1975, the Yankees traded him to the Angels for righty Ed Figueroa and outfielder Mickey Rivers. On the same day they sent righty Doc Medich to the Pirates for lefty Ken Brett, righty Doc Ellis, and a rookie second baseman named Willie Randolph.

“We didn't win last year,” Paul told Joseph Durso following the trade. “I'm not blaming Bobby Bonds for that. He played hurt, and many guys won't play hurt. He did a hell of a job. I resisted the idea of including him in the deal, and last week we told the Angels that he wasn't available. But we had to do something. You have to shoot craps a little, and you're always taking a risk.”

The case can be made Bonds is the greatest one-year Yankee in franchise history. Actually, no, you can’t just make the case. Bonds is clearly the greatest one-year Yankee in franchise history, at least among position players. Here are two leaderboards among players to spend just a single season in pinstripes:

OPS+ (min. 400 plate appearances)
1. Bobby Bonds, 1975: 151
2. Jack Clark, 1988: 130
3. Ray Demmitt, 1909: 120
4. Harry Niles, 1908: 114
5. Herm McFarland, 1903: 109

WAR
1. Bobby Bonds, 1975: +5.0
2. Jack Clark, 1988: +2.8
3. Martin Prado, 2014: +2.1
4. Ray Demmitt, 1909: +2.1
5. Eric Soderholm, 1980: +1.8

I’m not sure being on those leaderboards is a badge of honor -- if you have a great season with the Yankees, they tend to keep you around -- but Bonds is atop both of them. He spent only one season with the Yankees and it was a great season for him, even if the team did not reach the postseason. Bonds arrived in a blockbuster trade and left in a trade that proved to be instrumental to the 1977 and 1978 World Series championships.

“We couldn't make the (Bonds) deal without making the (Medich trade),” Paul told Dave Anderson. “We wanted Randolph very badly. Our reports are that he can't miss. We expect him to be an All‐Star. There were a dozen clubs after him because the Pirates have Rennie Stennett at second base and they were using the kid as bait for a right‐handed pitcher.”

Bonds became something of a journeyman after the trade, playing for six teams in the final six years of his career. He was excellent throughout, and retired as a .268/.353/.471 (129 OPS+) hitter with 332 home runs and 461 stolen bases following the 1981 season. Bonds spent 11 years on the Hall of Fame ballot without being inducted. He and Barry have by far the most home runs among father/son duos in history (1,094; 312 more than the second place Griffeys). Bobby Bonds died of complications from lung cancer and a brain tumor at age 57 in 2003.

''They said I was supposed to be the next Willie Mays. When they told me that, it was an honor. You're talking about a guy who I considered the greatest player to ever wear shoes,” Bonds told the Los Angeles Times in 1990, according to Richard Goldstein. “I probably had more success than anyone they ever put that label on. You show me another guy who's going to do 30/30 five times. But all the writers kept talking about was potential. You haven't reached your potential yet, they say. Well, unless you win a Pulitzer Prize, you're not living up to your potential either, are you?''

7. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Tim Dierkes, the Super Two cutoff is two years and 116 days (2.116) of service time this offseason. It’s set at the top 22% of players between two and three years of service time each winter. No Yankees are particularly close to the cutoff. Nestor Cortes is closest at 2.094, so he is still 22 days short. No close calls this offseason, like when Miguel Andujar missed the cutoff by five days last offseason … And finally, two quick Yankees-related thoughts on two Mets signings. First, the Yankees were never giving Starling Marte close to $20M a year for his age 33-36 seasons. If they spend that kinda money on a position player, it’s going to a shortstop, not an outfielder when they already have a lot of money tied up in the outfield. And second, I thought Eduardo Escobar was a sleeper first base candidate should the Yankees miss out on Matt Olson and not re-sign Anthony Rizzo. I wrote about Escobar in my Offseason Plan (point No. 7 near the end) and two years and $20M is very reasonable given his skills and versatility. Alas, the Yankees waiting out the market means Escobar will play in Queens, not the Bronx.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)