November 23rd, 2021: Rule 5 Draft Protection, Frazier, Wade, Sands, Nelson, Hot Stove Rumors, Story

Happy Thanksgiving Eve Eve, all. Turkey Day is two days away and the lockout is eight days away. “Honestly, I can’t believe there’s a single fan in the world who doesn’t understand that an offseason lockout that moves the process forward is different than a labor dispute that costs games,” commissioner Rob Manfred told the Associated Press last week, trying to convince you that lockouts are good, actually. Hopefully the two sides come to their senses over the next week and figure things out, but I’m not going to hold my breath. Let’s get to today’s post. (Reminder: There won’t be a post this Friday unless there’s breaking news. See y’all next Tuesday.)

1. Latest roster moves. Although the lockout may cancel this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft entirely, teams must operate under the assumption it will be business as usual, and last Friday was the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. The Yankees made several 40-man roster additions (more than I expected) as well as corresponding moves to clear space. Let’s break it all down.

Five added to the 40-man roster

The Yankees added five minor leaguers to the 40-man roster prior to Friday’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline and there were no crazy surprises, like when they randomly added Joe Harvey to the 40-man in 2019 or traded for random Yankee Dean Anna on protection day in 2013. The Yankees did make a minor trade Friday, and we’ll get to that in a bit.

The five players added to the 40-man: infielder Oswaldo Cabrera, outfielder Everson Pereira, lefty JP Sears, and righties Ron Marinaccio and Stephen Ridings. I covered all five in my Rule 5 Draft preview (turned out Randy Vasquez wasn’t Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason) and I don’t have anything to add about them. You can read about those guys there.

I will say I didn’t expect the Yankees to add Ridings and Marinaccio and Sears to the 40-man*. I thought they would sacrifice one or two to the roster flexibility gods and leave them exposed to the Rule 5 Draft, but nope. Those three plus Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, and Clarke Schmidt are in line to be the shuttle pitchers in 2022. Still an entire offseason to go though.

* Is this an indication the Yankees overreacted to losing Garrett Whitlock last year by protecting all those guys this year? I don’t think so. All three will be legitimate MLB options next season. A telling sign would have been going off the board to protect someone who doesn’t warrant it (i.e. they’re protecting *everyone* now). I think this is just the way the chips fell this year. That’s all.

Adding the three relievers makes me believe Albert Abreu (and Lucas Luetge?) is a candidate to be moved this offseason. Abreu has a good arm and was good at times this past season, but he’s also out of minor league options and limits roster flexibility. The other guys can easily go up and down. Abreu could be traded for a non-40-man player at some point.

Catcher Josh Breaux, outfielders Anthony Garcia and Brandon Lockridge, lefty Matt Krook, and righty Matt Sauer are the notable prospects the Yankees left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. I could see a team giving Lockridge or Krook a look in Spring Training, maybe Breaux too. Garcia and Sauer have close to no chance to stick in the big leagues next year. Lockridge and Krook might.

Frazier designated

Back in July, I wrote “it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Clint has already played his last game as a Yankee” after Frazier was placed on the injured list, and that’s exactly what happened. Clint Frazier was designated for assignment last week to clear 40-man space for the Rule 5 Draft kids. One day earlier, Brian Cashman seemed to acknowledge Clint still isn’t fully healthy.

“He got taken offline rather early (this season) and he didn't get back,” Cashman told Bryan Hoch. “He's going to have to find his way back into it. He's certainly more than capable of doing that. So most important is his health and being healthy. Once that's in play, which I believe it is, his journey can begin again.”

From 2019-20, Frazier hit .267/.347/.497 (124 wRC+) with 20 homers in 406 plate appearances around four separate demotions to the minors (and one 11-day injured list stint). The Yankees gave Clint the left field job this season and he flopped spectacularly: .186/.317/.317 (83 wRC+) in 218 plate appearances. He was placed on the injured list July 2nd and that was that.

The Yankees always kept Frazier at arm’s length. They’d say he was going to play a big role for them and that they were excited to have him, things like that, yet they shuttled him up and down to Triple-A, and he was quickly benched whenever he had a few bad games. The actions over the years told us the Yankees never did like Clint as much as they said they did.

“We poured into him as much as we possibly could,” Aaron Boone told Dan Martin yesterday. “I do feel he made really good strides in a lot of areas in his game at different times. Some of the time missed with ailments and injuries are what ultimately kept him from finding a consistent path, and at different times it was being a little blocked by some guys on the roster.”

I know the Yankees tried to move Frazier at the trade deadline to clear payroll, though that went nowhere because of his injury. They surely tried to move Frazier again these last few weeks, but they obviously found no taker, and had to designate him for assignment. Prospect pedigree only goes so far when you’re 27, not an established big leaguer, and have a seven-figure salary.

The Athletics, Guardians, Mets, Nationals, Rangers, and Rockies stand out as potential landing spots should a team claim Frazier on waivers this week. I think it’s more likely he clears waivers and becomes a minor league free agent given his projected $2.4M salary. Having to take a pay cut would stink, but at least that would give Clint a fresh start with the team of his choosing.

The championship window with the current core is closing and the single biggest reason is the regression of all the young players who were supposed to make up that core. Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, etc. There were some injuries in there, sure, but those guys are all worse players today than they were when they broke into the league. It might be too late to help those guys, but the Yankees must figure out why this keeps happening, and fix it.

I hope Frazier gets healthy -- between the vision issues and neurological exams, whatever he’s been dealing with this year sounds scary -- and can continue his career next season with a new team. He needs a fresh start and the Yankees need to figure out why their best young players develop so well in the minors only to stall out in the big leagues. 

Wade traded

It’s amusing some of the first words out of Cashman’s mouth this offseason were “we're not as athletic as we'd like to be,” and in the first three weeks of the offseason, the Yankees jettisoned arguably their four most athletic players. Greg Allen is a Pirate, Tim Locastro is a Red Sox, Andrew Velazquez is an Angel, and now Tyler Wade is an Angel as well.

Of course, athleticism for the sake of athleticism is not what the Yankees need (or want). They need good players who happen to be athletic, like Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge, not dudes like Allen and Wade, who have the athleticism to look good but are not actually good. I’m just saying, it’s kinda funny Cashman said that, then dumped his most athletic players.

Anyway, Wade had his best season as a big leaguer in 2021, though it was really just one great month (215 wRC+ in August!) in the middle of a bad season (41 wRC+ in all other months). He didn’t get a chance to build on that big August in September because Boone decided to play Velazquez and Rougned Odor instead. The manager of the Yankees, everyone.

Wade can really run and he was good defensively no matter where the Yankees put him -- he became a pretty good outfielder in a very short period of time -- but at some point you have to be more than a zero at the plate to keep your roster spot, and Wade never got to that point. His projected $700,000 salary isn’t onerous. This is more about the player than the money.

Wade was designated for assignment Friday and traded to the Angels for cash or a player to be named later Monday. He grew up about 15 minutes from Angel Stadium, so it’s a homecoming for him. Even if Wade had cleared waivers, he would have become a minor league free agent and presumably looked to sign with a team that could offer more playing time. He was gone no matter what, but at least the Yankees got something for him, even if it’s only a few bucks.

We still have almost an entire offseason to go, but I could see the Yankees not replacing Wade. They’re going to add a shortstop this winter, we know that much, and then they could use Gio Urshela as the backup shortstop with DJ LeMahieu getting playing time all around the infield. They won’t necessarily need a true backup infielder like Wade. I need to see the rest of the roster before forming an opinion about that plan. We’ll see what happens.

Odor designated

Not a whole lot to say here. Rougned Odor was very bad this season and he was on the roster not because he helped win games, but because the Rangers paid his salary and that helped the Yankees stay under the $210M luxury tax threshold. The Yankees valued that $0 roster spot so much they parted with three -- three! -- prospects to get Odor. Mission accomplished, I guess.

Odor still has another $15M coming to him ($12M salary in 2022 plus a $3M buyout of his 2023 club option) and Texas is responsible for that. For the Yankees, it’s a clean break. They cut an unproductive player and gave the 40-man roster spot to a young kid who may or may not contribute next year or even down the line. And that’s about all there is to say about that.

Nelson and Sands traded

Turns out the Yankees added Donny Sands to the 40-man roster just so they could trade him. He spent 12 days on the 40-man. Sands and Nick Nelson were sent to the Phillies in a 40-man roster clearing move Friday. I’ll have more on the two players the Yankees received in return in a bit. For the Nelson and Sands component, I don’t love it, but I’m not irate either.

Trading Nelson is whatever. He has a big arm that plays down because his command is poor and he has no pitchability. Nelson comes off the 40-man so another live arm could go on. He and Brooks Kriske got the axe this year, and in a year or two there will be new faces gunning for Marinaccio’s and Ridings’ spots. It is the hard-thrower at the bottom of the 40-man roster circle of life.

Mostly, I don’t like trading Sands given in the state of catching around baseball (it stinks) and within the organization (it also stinks). Sands had a good year in Triple-A, he’s a competent defender, and he has all three minor league option years remaining. This trade screams of “Sands doesn’t have the big exit velocity we like, but Chris Gittens does, so Gittens stays.”

(I understand you can’t just sub in Gittens for Sands and make the same trade. I’m saying I would have preferred no trade and designating Gittens for assignment to clear a 40-man spot, and keeping Sands. Surely there was another “Nelson for non-40-man player” trade to be made to clear the other spot.)

Maybe this doesn’t matter in the end. The 40-man is full, so whenever the Yankees do anything this offseason (sign a shortstop, trade for a pitcher, etc.), they’ll have to clear space. Gittens will come off soon enough and chances are it was only a matter of time until Sands came off. Still, why so quick to dump a catcher when you need catching? It’s not like they got a great return.

The Yankees have more hard-throwing relievers than roster spots. Moving on from Nelson is no big deal. Dumping Sands when you say you’re looking for catching and the catching market is so bad though? I would’ve held onto the optionable backstop who slugged 18 homers with only a 15.0% strikeout rate at Double-A and Triple-A this year. This is not a position to dump depth.

Rumfield and Valdez acquired

In return for Nelson and Sands, the Yankees received a first baseman who slugged .263 in Low-A and a 21-year-old righty who has never pitched above the Dominican Summer League. It’s not really as grim as it sounds, but, in the end, the Yankees traded a depth arm (it’s fine) and a depth catcher (I don’t like it) for two fringe prospect lottery ticket types.

The first baseman is lefty hitting TJ Rumfield, Philadelphia’s 12th round pick this year. He hit .315/.402/.478 at Virginia Tech this spring (video) and .271/.363/.386 with the Trenton Thunder (yes, that Trenton Thunder) in the MLB Draft League this summer. After signing Rumfield put up a .240/.426/.263 (114 wRC+) line with one extra-base hit (a double) in 27 Low-A games.

The good: Rumfield drew 21 walks with only 11 strikeouts in those 27 games. The bad: Low-A used the automated strike zone, which inflated walk rates across the league. The good: Eric Longenhagen says Rumfield has “big league physicality and power.” The bad: Rumfield’s exit velocity in Low-A was weak. Averaged 87.2 mph and maxed at 103.5 mph in a small sample.

Rumfield, 21, was not among Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects (subs. req’d) and this is very clearly a “the Yankees know more than us” situation. He’s a lefty hitter and I’m guessing they believe there’s more juice in the bat than he’s shown, and with a few swing modifications, they hope to unlock it like they did with so many other prospects this season. We’ll see.

The other prospect the Yankees received in the trade, righty Joel Valdez, had a 1.63 ERA (2.97 FIP) with 24.5% strikeouts and 7.3% walks in 55.1 innings in the DSL this year. He pitched the entire season at age 21 in a league where the average player is 19. Beyond the stats, I have nothing on Valdez. Can’t find a scouting report, video, nothing. He’s a prospect ghost.

Knowing the Yankees, I bet Valdez has great measurables. Velocity, spin, sink, the works. The Yankees have done the “trade an MLB depth piece for a DSL kid” thing before and it’s worked out well (Luis Gil was a 19-year-old in the DSL when they got him for Jake Cave), but, generally speaking, a 21-year-old in the DSL is a non-prospect. Valdez was ancient for that level.

The Yankees traded 40-man players for non-40-man players so they could kick the Rule 5 Draft can down the road, and kick it they did. Rumfield won’t be Rule 5 Draft eligible until after 2024, Valdez not until after 2023. The Yankees have a few years to develop and evaluate these two before making roster decisions. They won’t have to deal with that next winter.

From where I sit, I don’t like trading a viable big league catching option for lower minors lottery tickets when you have other expendable pieces on the 40-man roster. We are way more likely to say “they really should’ve kept Sands, huh” than “wow, Rumfield/Valdez was a really smart pickup” at some point in the next 3-5 years. I don’t think it’s close either.

That said, the Yankees have earned the benefit of the doubt with the year the farm system just had. Maybe Rumfield turns into a legit first base masher down the line and Valdez a dominant reliever. Would be cool. For now though, the Yankees sacrificed big league catching depth for prospects who aren’t very prospect-y when they had other players they could have dumped first.

2. Latest hot stove rumors. In one week and one day the owners will lock the players out and hot stove activity will come to a halt. Will the Yankees make a notable move before the work stoppage? I’m inclined to think no. A byproduct of the work stoppage will be condensing free agency and suppressing salaries, and the Yankees will want to capitalize on that. Anyway, here’s the latest from the hot stove circuit.

Gardner wants to play in 2022

Last week Brian Cashman confirmed Brett Gardner intends to play next season. Gardner said he would go home and think about his future following the Wild Card Game loss, and apparently he went home, thought about it, and decided to give it another go next year. Cashman said the two sides haven’t had any contract talks yet.

“I haven’t spoken to Brett at all, but that’s not unusual,” Cashman told Ryan Chichester. “I deal with his agents. I had an early conversation. They had the first decision, which is they were not going to exercise the player option, which triggered our decision not to exercise the club option, which created this free agency. We have not had a conversation since. They have conveyed that he wants to play.”

I said this all last offseason and I will say it again: I will believe Gardner won’t be on the Opening Day roster next year when I see it. The Yankees strung Gardner along last winter -- they signed Jay Bruce as a lefty hitting outfield alternative at one point -- but eventually signed him right before position players reported to camp. A similar timeline this offseason wouldn’t surprise me. (Zack Britton could conveniently go on the 60-day injured list in Spring Training to clear a 40-man roster spot under that timeline.)

The Yankees paid Gardner a $1.15M buyout when they declined his club option a few weeks ago and a one-year, $1.15M contract would make Brett whole on the $2.3M player option. That could be the contract framework right there. “Sign for $1.15M and it’ll be like you picked up the player option.” That kinda thing. I’m not sure money is the top priority for Gardner right now anyway.

Gardner finished 2021 strong, hitting .261/.351/.441 (119 wRC+) in August and September, and he’s still good defensively and on the bases. There’s still something in the tank. That said, Brett will turn 39 next August, and the fall off a cliff potential is always very high with players this age. Gardner has been able to remain productive, though that could change at any moment.

Cashman said the Yankees will “evaluate” center field this offseason, which sounds like typical CashmanSpeak. He says that about every position every offseason. The Yankees can’t seem to quit Gardner, and bringing him back as the lefty hitting fourth (or fifth?) outfielder could be in the cards. I think it’s time to move on, but I will believe Gardner won’t be a Yankee on Opening Day when the season starts and he’s not on the roster, and not a second sooner.

Yankees made big offer to Verlander

The Yankees offered Justin Verlander a one-year, $25M contract before he re-signed with the Astros last week, reports Jon Heyman. Verlander returned to Houston on a one-year, $25M deal with a $25M player option for 2023. Supposedly the player option was the sticking point for the Yankees. They wanted a one-year deal only. Here’s what I wrote about Verlander last week.

Is the Verlander offer a sign the Yankees will truly spend big this offseason? I think the answer is … possibly. I think it’s more likely they saw Verlander as a special case and were willing to pay a big salary on a one-year deal in a season they know they have to pay luxury tax. The years are more relevant than the dollars. Short-term, they’ll pay big. Long-term? We don’t know that yet.

Carlos Correa and Corey Seager are special cases. They’re in their own little universe as elite players in their primes. I think the Verlander offer tells us more about how the Yankees will treat the rest of the market, meaning they will prioritize short-term deals, even at big dollars. There is already a ton of money on the books in 2023 and beyond. I don’t think they want to add to it.

Yes, the Verlander offer tells us the Yankees are willing to spend significant dollars to improve the 2022 roster. I think we knew that already. The Verlander offer does not mean they are willing to spend significant dollars on multi-year deals, however. One year and $25M for Verlander is much different than whatever it’ll take to sign Correa or Seager (or Robbie Ray, Max Scherzer, etc.).

A’s have a big asking price for Olson

The Yankees have interest in Athletics first baseman Matt Olson and the A’s are said to be “shooting for the moon” in trade talks, according to Heyman. No surprise here. It’s very early in the offseason and you have to start with a big asking price for a player like this. Start high and come down. Don’t start with what you’ll settle for and begin negotiations there.

Olson has two years of team control remaining and the J.T. Realmuto trade seems like a good benchmark for a trade package. Realmuto had two years of control remaining and was the best player at his position. At minimum, Olson is in the conversation for the best first baseman in baseball, though it’s a much less premium position. Here’s the Realmuto trade package:

• C Jorge Alfaro (five years of a young MLB player)
• RHP Sixto Sanchez (top 20 global prospect)
• RHP Will Stewart (top 30 team prospect)

What’s the Yankees equivalent to that? Luis Gil (Alfaro), Anthony Volpe (Sanchez), and then a lottery ticket arm like Beck Way (Stewart)? The A’s intend to slash payroll, similar to the Marlins when they traded Realmuto. That said, it’s much more difficult to find a quality catcher than it is a quality first baseman. Position scarcity played a role in Realmuto’s trade value.

My guess is either Olson or Anthony Rizzo will play first base for the 2022 Yankees. I think they are done with Luke Voit and I don’t see them committing huge dollars to the position with, say, Freddie Freeman. They’ll try hard to get Olson, and if the A’s are being unreasonable, then they’ll fall back on Rizzo. Now, if Rizzo signs elsewhere before Olson gets traded, then all bets are off.

Suzuki posted

Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki was posted yesterday, MLB announced. He has until 5pm ET on Wednesday, Dec. 22nd to sign. If (when) there’s a work stoppage, Joel Sherman says they hit pause on the 30-day negotiating window, so Suzuki has nine days to negotiate before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires, then he’ll have 21 days after the lockout ends. 

Here’s what I wrote about Suzuki last month. The Yankees don’t need a corner outfielder at the moment, but given their comments about center field these last few weeks, they should totally move Joey Gallo to center and sign Suzuki (or another left fielder). Gallo is plenty good enough defensively to play center and Scott Boras would love Gallo playing center in his contract year.

Think about it: Starling Marte is the only legitimate center fielder in free agency and the top center field trade targets are either going to cost a ton (Bryan Reynolds), are kinda blah (Ramon Laureano), or are in the division (Kevin Kiermaier). Moving Gallo to center and finding a new left fielder would be way easier than keeping Gallo in left and finding a new center fielder.

For what it’s worth, MLBTR and FanGraphs both project Suzuki to get $11M per year across 4-5 years. I speculated four years and $16M a year could work (that’s Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna money), but really, who knows? It’s always difficult to peg contracts for players coming from overseas. Suzuki’s pedigree suggests eight figures annually. That I feel good about.

The Yankees have only seriously pursued two Japanese players since Kei Igawa: Masahiro Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani. That isn’t to say they won’t pursue Suzuki, just that they’ve been very selective in this market. The best of the best only. Suzuki is a corner outfielder, so he’s an imperfect fit. Moving Gallo to center (or trading him) would be the easiest way to fit him on the roster.

(Moving Gallo to center and bringing in another left fielder is not a move that has to be tied to Suzuki and Suzuki only, of course. The Yankees could do that and sign Michael Conforto or Joc Pederson or Tommy Pham or trade for Robbie Grossman. It would open a world of outfield possibilities rather than lock them into finding a center fielder.)

3. The case for Story. One way or another, the Yankees will add a shortstop this offseason. Maybe they’ll go big, maybe they’ll go cheap, but they’re adding a shortstop. I prefer Carlos Correa. Corey Seager is cool too, and so is Marcus Semien. Among the other top free agent shortstops is Trevor Story, who can finally escape the dysfunctional Rockies.

The Yankees reportedly had interest in Story at the trade deadline, though Colorado was said to have unreasonable demands, so Brian Cashman & Co. shifted gears and brought in Anthony Rizzo. The plan was to install Story at short, move Gleyber Torres to second, and play DJ LeMahieu at first base. Does Story make sense for the Yankees now? Let’s dive in.

There are reasons to believe the bat can bounce back

From 2018-20, Story was consistently 20 percent better than league average offensively. He hit .292/.355/.554 (124 wRC+) those three seasons and averaged 37 homers and 29 stolen bases per 162 games. The steals are an underrated part of Story’s game. He’s fast and a top stolen base threat, and he makes things happen in first-to-third situations, etc.

This past season Story slipped down to .251/.324/.471 (100 wRC+), though he was better in the second half (111 wRC+) than the first (90 wRC+), so at least he was trending in the right direction. As with every Rockies player, Story’s home/road splits are significant. Here are the last four seasons:

• Home: .313/.379/.616 (132 wRC+) in 1,109 PA
• Road: .248/.316/.445 (101 wRC+) in 1,057 PA

In the year 2021, we’re smart enough to know you can’t simply take a Rockies hitter’s road stats and say that’s the real him. LeMahieu came to the Yankees and got better! Nolan Arenado has continued to hit outside Coors Field. Matt Holliday did as well. Same with non-All-Stars like Corey Dickerson and Seth Smith. They were better than their Rockies road numbers indicated.

Over the last four seasons the Rockies rank first in runs scored at home (1,554) and third to last in runs scored on the road (1,075). That means one of two things. Either Coors Field elevated one of the worst offenses in baseball to the very best, or a middle of the road offense has been helped by Coors Field and hurt by the adjustment to playing at sea level. 

It’s obviously the latter. The Coors Field hangover is real. Pitches move differently at altitude than they do at sea level, so Rockies hitters see one set of pitches at home and another set on the road even though they are generally facing the same pitchers. Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler are tough enough, you know? Facing different versions of them depending where you’re playing must be brutal.

That is a long way of saying I think Story will be a much better and more consistent hitter away from Coors Field. His contact quality was still very good in 2021. His exit velocity and launch angle and all that were right in line with previous years. Story also didn’t strike out or swing-and-miss more often. He hit a few more pop ups. That’s about it.

Story was a 30% strikeout guy when he first came up six years ago, but he’s worked hard to get his strikeout rate down to league average (23.4% in 2021), and he’ll walk at a league average rate too (8.9% in 2021). In a nutshell, Story is an average batting average/on-base guy who has more power than the average shortstop and will add a lot of value on the bases.

The downside is Story would be another right-handed hitter in a lineup that is already too righty heavy, and his power is almost all to the pull side. Maybe he can make the adjustment to take advantage of the short porch. As things stand though, Story’s homers tend to be pulled to left field, and that’s the big part of Yankee Stadium. He’s not a perfect fit for the ballpark.

Coors Field creates questions, that’s just the nature of the beast, but there is a track record of talented hitters leaving the Rockies and remaining productive. Story’s exit velocity and plate discipline did not crater this year, and he will play all of next season at age 29. That all leads me to believe a bounceback is possible. The core skills are still there and he’s on the right side of 30.

So what about his glove?

Story’s defense is … complicated. It’s been very good throughout his career overall. Gold Glove caliber in some seasons, above-average in most. This year it slipped. The exact degree of slippage depends on the metric, but it slipped. The defensive decline is tied up almost entirely in his arm too. Story’s throwing suffered significantly this year.

Two things to know about Story’s arm. First, he’s been dealing with a nagging elbow issue the last few years, and it flared up enough to send him to the injured list for two weeks in May. And second, Story’s throwing decline dates back to last year. This isn’t a situation where Story’s throwing was fine early this year, he hurt his elbow, then his throwing went in the tank. It’s been bad for a while.

I’ve heard the non-public Statcast numbers (the stuff teams have but we don’t) on Story’s arm are horrible, major red flag territory, and fortunately Statcast guru Mike Petriello tweeted out this graph so we have a visual. Here are all Story’s throws north of 74 mph over the years (the average shortstop throw is about 74 mph):

The top end throws just aren’t there anymore. Story would routinely unleash 85+ mph throws and often touch 90 mph. The last two seasons he’s struggled to crack 80 mph. Intent matters, and maybe Story just didn’t have to make many plays with urgency this year, but I don’t buy that. The guy played 138 games at short in 2021! Surely he had opportunities to cut it loose, and either didn’t or couldn’t.

The throwing worries me. With an arm like that, Story may have to move to second base sooner rather than later, which would be a bit of a problem because the Yankees already have two guys on the roster whose best position is second base. Sign a guy to play short and it would be nice if he were actually a shortstop, you know? I don’t know that Story has a shortstop’s arm anymore.

Other than the arm though, Story’s really good defensively! Very good range, soft hands, good instincts, the works. He has all the defensive tools you want in a shortstop minus the arm. If you believe the arm can bounce back -- the sooner you sign Story, the sooner you can get him on an offseason throwing program -- then yeah, he’s an above-average defensive shortstop.

Teams sign players they believe can rebound from down seasons all the time. Usually it’s a hitter who had a poor year at the plate, or a pitcher who missed time with an injury. It’s not often they sign a player who had a down year defensively, and showed a multi-year trend of losing velocity on his throws. That’s Story, and whichever team signs him will believe the throwing is fixable.

He won’t get Correa/Seager money

Correa and Seager are in a class of their own this offseason. They’re excellent, they’re only 27, and they bring championship pedigree. Story brings none of those things. He had a down 2021 season, he’s 29, and he’s barely played in October (five career postseason games). The last point doesn’t matter a whole lot come contract negotiation time. The first two certainly do though.

For discussion purposes, here are the various free agent shortstop contract projections:

FanGraphs
1. Carlos Correa: 8 years, $240M ($30M per year)
2. Corey Seager: 7 years, $196M ($28M per year)
3. Trevor Story: 6 years, $150M ($25M per year)
4. Marcus Semien: 4 years, $92M ($23M per year)
5. Javier Baez: 4 years, $80M ($20M per year)

MLB Trade Rumors
1. Carlos Correa: 10 years, $320M ($32M per year)
2. Corey Seager: 10 years, $305M ($30.5M per year)
3. Marcus Semien: 6 years, $138M ($23M per year)
4. Trevor Story: 6 years, $126M ($21M per year)
5. Javier Baez: 5 years, $100M ($20M per year)

Story recently met with his hometown Rangers, according to Evan Grant, though they’ve also reportedly met with Scott Boras about Seager and Semien, so it seems like Texas is covering their bases more than zeroing in on the Dallas guy. Point is, there will be competition for Story. How much? That is unclear at this point. His season and the lockout complicate things.

MLB’s three previous lockouts (1973, 1976, 1990) lasted 12, 17, and 32 days. I haven’t talked to anyone inside or outside baseball who expects this offseason’s lockout to be over quickly. Best case scenario seems to be mid-to-late January, more likely early February, but who knows? Neither side will really feel heat until paychecks are on the line in April.

I mention that because the expectation is the lockout will last several weeks, and once it ends, there will be a short and chaotic free agency period. One of these top free agent shortstops may get squeezed into a one-year deal. It won’t be Correa or Seager, and Semien’s not doing the one-year deal thing again. Story is coming off a down year and seems like the best candidate.

As noted earlier in this post, the Yankees made Justin Verlander a one-year, $25M offer. Would they do the same with Story? A big one-year deal that solves the shortstop problem (in theory), doesn’t tie up payroll in 2023 and beyond, and allows Story to rebuild his stock in a home run ballpark in a division with three other hitter’s parks. Could be a perfect match.

(Like Story, Verlander rejected the qualifying offer, so we know the Yankees are willing to give up their second round pick and $500,000 in international bonus money for a one-year deal.)

You can see the stars aligning. The Yankees need a shortstop, they had interest in Story at the trade deadline, and the Verlander offer shows they’re willing to do a big one-year deal for a free agent (even if he’s attached to draft pick compensation). Of course, Story has to be willing to sign a one-year contract and come to the Yankees. When in doubt, bet on the free agent taking the most total dollars.

As for the on-field fit, I am worried about Story’s throwing. I’m not sure how you can’t be at this point. The numbers are really bad and the eye test is horrible. Nothing about this looks natural (video link):

I think the bat will bounce back, particularly once Story is away from the Coors Field hangover and away from the Rockies in general. It’s a toxic environment. The Arenado situation got ugly and Story had a front row seat for all of it. The arm is the only thing that worries me. A shortstop who can’t throw is no shortstop at all, and it wouldn’t solve anything for the Yankees.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Jerry Mumphrey. This week’s random Yankee comes by request and is a player who had arguably the best two and a half seasons of his 15-year career in pinstripes. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Mumphrey grew up outside Dallas and the Cardinals selected him out of high school with their fourth round pick in the 1971 draft. He made his MLB debut as a September call up three years later and finally stuck for good in 1976. From 1976-79, the speedy Mumphrey hit .276/.335/.357 with 22 triples and 66 stolen bases with St. Louis.

The Cardinals used Mumphrey as a fourth outfielder from 1978-79 and, believing he deserved more playing time, he requested a trade. St. Louis sent him to Cleveland with righty John Denny for Bobby Bonds in Dec. 1979. He never actually played for Cleveland though. Two months later they flipped Mumphrey to the Padres for outfielder Jim Wilhelm and lefty John Owchinko.

“I’m at the point in my career where I think I should be playing every day,” Mumphrey told the Sporting News before going from St. Louis to Cleveland to San Diego in one offseason.

Despite a Spring Training leg injury, Mumphrey had his best big league season to date with the Padres in 1980, hitting .298/.352/.372 with 52 steals in 57 attempts. Mumphrey also led the league in errors that year (11). Seems like he would have benefited from advanced defense stats because everything I’ve read says he was very fast and ran down balls most outfielders couldn’t get to, but the errors would lead you to believe he was a liability.

Anyway, Mickey Rivers and Bobby Murcer played center field for the Yankees in 1979, then in 1980 it was Bobby Brown and Ruppert Jones. They combined to hit .235/.301/.375 that year. The Yankees needed a center fielder and the Padres were willing to move Mumphrey because he was a year away from free agency. The two clubs got together for a trade on March 31st, 1981*:

• To Yankees: OF Jerry Mumphrey, RHP John Pacella
• To Padres: OF Ruppert Jones, IF Joe Lefebvre, LHP Tim Lollar, LHP Chris Welsh

* Back in the day MLB had an interleague trade deadline at the end of Spring Training, and the Yankees got Mumphrey on deadline day.

“No doubt we're giving up a lot,” Yankees vice president Bill Bergesch told Jane Gross following the trade. “Sometimes when you're the Yankees, you have to, but I think we're getting an outstanding player.”

As planned, the 28-year-old Mumphrey stepped in as the everyday center fielder and No. 2 hitter in 1981 (those were the “fast guys hit at the top of the lineup” days). Although he started slowly, Mumphrey caught fire in late April and was one of the team’s most productive players. He hit .367/.430/.500 with six steals in 33 games from April 24th through June 11th.

“I learned how to stay back, use my hands, and see the ball,” Mumphrey told Gross in April about his improvement at the plate. “I was trying to do what I couldn't do. When I'm moving, I don't see the ball. Now there's no movement until the point of contact. Once I had a good idea of what to do and stayed with it, I was on my way.”

On June 12th, the MLBPA went on strike, forcing 713 total games to be canceled. The season resumed with the All-Star Game on August 9th, and because the Yankees were in first place at the time of the strike, they were anointed first half division champions and given an automatic postseason berth. 

(MLB split the season into two halves that year and the division winner in each half went to the postseason. The first ever League Division Series was played that year, though it didn’t become permanent until 1995.)

“It's nothing big or organized. We get three or four guys together and do the best we can. We don't want to draw attention to it,” Willie Randolph told the New York Times about his workouts at Hackensack High School with Mumphrey, Bob Watson, and several other players (including a few Mets players and even players from other teams who made their home in the area) during the strike.

Mumphrey’s second half was not as good as his first half, though he was still a productive player: .290/.318/.407 with five stolen bases in 36 games. Overall, Mumphrey hit .307/.354/.429 (127 OPS+) with 14 stolen bases in 80 games in 1981. He set new career highs in AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS+. His six home runs were also a new career high despite the shortened season. That all earned Mumphrey a few MVP votes.

The Yankees went 25-26 in the second half and finished sixth in the seven-team AL East. They locked up a postseason spot in the first half though, and they beat the Brewers in five games in the ALDS. Mumphrey went 2-for-5 in Game 1 and 0-for-16 the rest of the series. The Yankees quickly swept the Athletics in three games in the ALCS. Mumphrey went 6-for-12 in the series, including 4-for-5 in Game 2.

For the third time in five years, the Yankees and Dodgers met in the World Series in 1981. Mumphrey went 2-for-3 with a walk, a stolen base, and two runs scored in the 5-3 win in Game 1. He then went 0-for-7 in Games 2 and 3 and found himself on the bench for Games 4 and 5. Mumphrey returned to the starting lineup in Game 6 and went 1-for-5 in the series-clinching loss. He went 3-for-15 (.200) in the series and hit .229/.315/.250 in 13 games that postseason, the only postseason action of his career.

“I was surprised,” Mumphrey told Dave Anderson about being benched in Games 4 and 5. “I've been playing every day except when I was hurt. I wanted to play, I want to play every day … I hope I'm not the scapegoat, but I might be. (Manager Bob Lemon) just told me he wanted to shake up the lineup. I was ready to pinch hit. I'm a switch-hitter.”

The benching came right after Mumphrey signed a contract extension too. On Oct. 19th, the day before Game 1 of the World Series, Mumphrey passed on free agency and signed a six-year, $4.5M contract. The $750,000 average annual salary made him the second highest paid Yankee behind Dave Winfield ($1.5M). The plan was to announce the deal after the World Series, but it leaked following Game 5.

The Yankees overhauled their roster a bit following the World Series loss. Reggie Jackson left as a free agent, Murcer returned as a free agent, and the Yankees also brought in Ken Griffey Sr. and Doyle Alexander, among others. When the 1982 season started Randolph hit leadoff, Mumphrey hit second, Griffey hit third, and Winfield hit fourth.

Mumphrey’s success in 1981 proved to be no fluke. He was excellent again in 1982, putting up a .300/.364/.449 (124 OPS+) line with career highs in doubles (24), triples (10), and home runs (nine) in 123 games. During one particularly torrid stretch in July and early August, Mumphrey went 37-for-132 (.356) in 33 games. He was a dominant table setter.

“I'm big enough and strong enough that I don't know how good I might be. I really don't,” Mumphrey told Gross after hitting a game-winning home run against the Angels on July 24th. “I figured I'd give it one swing, and the one time I looked for it, I got it.”

Mumphrey was excellent in 1982. The Yankees were not. They went 79-83 and missed the postseason for the first of what would be 13 consecutive seasons. George Steinbrenner publicly ripped the team following the season, particularly the highest paid players like Mumphrey and Winfield. “I guess I’m not controversial enough,” Mumphrey told the Sporting News about drawing George's ire.

There was lots of trade speculation during the 1982-83 offseason, but ultimately Mumphrey remained with the Yankees. They brought in random Yankee Steve Kemp to replace Griffey in right field, and four games into the 1983 season, Mumphrey collided with Kemp and Randolph while chasing a pop up in shallow right-center. Here’s this photo again:

That’s Randolph at the top, Mumphrey in the middle, and Kemp at the bottom. Kemp suffered a shoulder injury and a small fracture to his collarbone, and was never really right the rest of the season. Mumphrey suffered a broken toe and remained in the game, though he ultimately sat out the next week to let it heal.

“Steve didn't hear me hollering,” Mumphrey told Murray Chass about the collision. “He said he was hollering, but I didn't hear him. I didn't hear Willie, either. It was a case of everybody hollering and nobody hearing.”

Over the next several weeks Mumphrey fell out of favor during a 38-team game stretch in which he had a) three three-hit games, b) 14 no-hit games, and c) stretches of 1-for-22 and 3-for-29. A hot stretch in late July and early August followed, but it wasn’t enough to keep him in pinstripes. On Aug. 10th the Yankees traded Mumphrey to the Astros straight up for Omar Moreno, who they tried to sign as a free agent in the offseason.

“I think I can relax a little more. Now I can play the way I can,” Mumphrey told James Tuite about the trade, which he requested. “... I'm ready to go. I feel like I played well here, although the first part of the year I was up and down. I don't think I have anything to be ashamed about.”

Eight days after the trade the Yankees and Royals resumed the George Brett pine tar game. Kansas City protested the original game on July 24th after the umpires ruled Brett had too much pine tar on his bat and disallowed a ninth inning go-ahead two-run home run (video). The league later ruled the home run should have been allowed, and the game was to resume at the point of the protest.

Mumphrey was playing center field during the original game, but because he had been traded prior to the resumption, the Yankees had to replace him in center field. Manager Billy Martin was irate over the ruling and made a mockery of the resumed game. First, Martin appealed that Brett failed to touch each base on the home run trot. MLB was prepared for that. From Chass:

When Martin went out to discuss the matter with (first base umpire Dave) Phillips, the crew chief pulled a letter from his pocket. It was a notarized statement from the umpires at the July 24 game confirming that both Brett and U. L. Washington, who had singled ahead of Brett's home run, had touched all of the bases.

Martin also put Ron Guidry in center field to replace Mumphrey and the left-handed throwing Don Mattingly at second base to replace Bert Campaneris (who was injured). Neither Guidry nor Mattingly had to make a defensive play in their one-third of an inning in the field. Brett’s home run stood and gave the Royals a 5-4 lead, the Yankees went on to lose by the same score.

All told, Mumphrey hit .262/.327/.412 (106 OPS+) in 83 games with the Yankees in 1983 and .293/.351/.434 (121 OPS+) in 286 games as a Yankee overall. He finished 1983 with the Astros and remained with Houston through 1985. Mumphrey then finished his career with the Cubs from 1986-88, and retired as a .289/.349/.396 (108 OPS+) hitter with 70 homers and 174 stolen bases in nearly 1,600 games. His 121 OPS+ with the Yankees was his highest with any of the five teams he played with during his career.

(As for the original Mumphrey trade, the Padres made out well. Pacella pitched in three games for the Yankees and was a non-factor. Jones had a 109 OPS+ in three seasons with the Padres and was an All-Star in 1982. Lollar spent four years in San Diego’s rotation as an innings guy, Welsh parts of three years as a swingman, and Lefebvre parts of three years as a utility man. Moreno had a 78 OPS+ in parts of three seasons with the Yankees following the second Mumphrey trade.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Aaron Hicks has completed his wrist surgery rehab and will indeed play winter ball. He joined Leones del Escogido in the Dominican Republic over the weekend (here’s a photo). Hicks had only previously played winter ball in Venezuela and as far as I know no team in the Dominican Republic controlled his winter ball rights. It may not be a coincidence new third base coach Luis Rojas managed Escogido back in the day. Rojas might’ve pulled some strings to get Hicks a winter ball roster spot. Anyway, good news. Hicks can get a few dozen at-bats to begin shaking off the rust post-wrist surgery. That’s preferable to showing up to Spring Training in February having not swung a bat competitively in 10 months … Last week Brian Cashman said the Yankees are seeking three hitting coaches plus a third pitching coach (along with Matt Blake and bullpen coach Mike Harkey). “There’s an industry movement of adding a third, so I think we’re probably going to line up that way as well,” Cashman told Bryan Hoch. The Giants are at the forefront of the huge coaching staff movement -- they have 16 coaches on staff, though not at all 16 are in the dugouts during games -- and they have three hitting coaches and three pitching coaches. It seems the Yankees are going that way as well. Adding better players would help more than adding more coaches, but more coaches would help too. The coaching staff is a piece of business the Yankees can handle during the lockout. No dealings with the MLBPA to worry about there.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)