November 19th, 2021: Hot Stove Rumors, Semien, Minor League Free Agents, Awards

Reminder: I’m skipping next Friday’s regularly scheduled post. It’s the day after Thanksgiving and I’m going to relax a bit during the holiday weekend. I’ll of course cover any breaking news, but otherwise there will be no post one week from today. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Latest hot stove news. Thanks to the qualifying offer decision deadline and today’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, it’s been a busy few days in the ol’ hot stove league. The Yankees haven’t done anything yet, though that will change when they clear 40-man roster space to protect a few minor leaguers later today. Let’s recap the news, shall we?

Yankees want a stopgap shortstop?

According to Matthew Roberson, the Yankees don’t want to commit much money to a shortstop this offseason, and instead prefer a stopgap until prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe are ready. Roberson adds Carlos Correa won’t take less than Francisco Lindor’s $341M contract, which isn’t unreasonable when you compare the two players.

"It's conceivable that two years from now they could be the middle of our infield, or middle of the infield on any team for that matter,” Hal Steinbrenner told Jeff Passan about Peraza and Volpe at the owners meetings this week. “They're very talented. We're excited about it."

With all due respect to Roberson, this report doesn’t surprise me. We hear something about the Yankees not wanting to spend every offseason, and hey, sometimes they don’t spend, but this is typical. We’re going to hear every possible angle about the shortstop situation before it’s said and done. They’re on this guy, no that guy, actually no that guy, forget it they won’t spend, etc.

I will say that, when the Yankees prioritize an elite free agent, they usually aren’t subtle. Their usual approach is to come in early with an enormous offer and let the rest of the league know what’s what. They did it with CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, and Gerrit Cole. They have not done it with Correa or Corey Seager, as far as we know.

That said, it could be the Yankees don’t feel the need to do that this offseason because there are so many quality shortstops. If you miss out on Correa, there’s Seager, and vice versa. Miss out on both and there’s still Javy Baez, Marcus Semien, and Trevor Story. It’s a buyer’s market. Why swoop in and set the market with a big early offer when you have so many options?

Maybe the Yankees really won’t spend on a top shortstop. They did pass on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, after all. Passing on an elite free agent wouldn’t be out of character. I’m just not sure I buy it yet. I was expecting an “actually, the Yankees won’t spend” report at some point because we get one every year. Now we have it. We’ll see where this goes.

Syndergaard, Verlander sign

The top two reclamation project starters have signed. Noah Syndergaard joined the Angels on a one-year, $21M deal (Peter Gammons says he turned down a $25M offer) while Justin Verlander returned to the Astros on a one-year, $25M deal with a $25M player option. Two guys who threw a combined eight innings the last two years got $46M guaranteed. In other news, the sport will shut down in 12 days because the owners will cry poor.

ANYWAY, Joel Sherman says the Yankees had interest in both righties but “seem(ed) more serious” about Verlander, who has the greater pedigree and also trains at Eric Cressey’s facility in Florida. They had more insight into his health than they did Syndergaard. Ken Davidoff says the Yankees wanted a one-year deal for Verlander. The player option was a sticking point.

Syndergaard, 29, and Verlander, 39 in February, are both returning from Tommy John surgery. Verlander has not pitched since Opening Day 2020 (in July). Syndergaard had a few setbacks this summer but returned to make two one-inning appearances in September. He did not throw any breaking balls to protect his elbow. It wasn’t much of a showcase, but hey, he gets $21M to watch Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout up close. Not bad.

The Yankees need a starter this offseason and Syndergaard and Verlander were as tantalizing as any free agent given their potential, though I’m also kinda sick of the “this guy could be really good if he stays healthy” profile. I know health is difficult to predict, but it would be nice to sign or trade for a guy who isn’t coming off a major injury, you know? Let’s try to add some certainty.

Verlander won the Cy Young in 2019, his last healthy season, when he threw 223 innings with a 2.58 ERA (3.27 FIP) and elite strikeout (35.4%) and walk (5.0%) rates. That was three years and one elbow ligament ago, and while Tommy John surgery has a high success rate, it often takes a little time for a pitcher to get back to where he was pre-surgery. Not everyone is 2015 Matt Harvey.

Part of me worried Verlander would be Randy Johnson 2.0. The right pitcher but five years too late, know what I mean? Yes, he’s a future Hall of Famer. He’s also a soon-to-be 39-year-old who essentially hasn’t pitched in two years and is coming off a major elbow injury. You hope for the best but have to understand you might get 120 innings with a 4.75 ERA.

Also, had the Yankees signed Syndergaard or Verlander, they’d go into 2022 with two starters coming off Tommy John surgery who will require some sort of monitoring and careful handling. Luis Severino barely pitched the year before Tommy John surgery because of a shoulder issue. Verlander will be 39. Those two would have required extra careful handling early on. It’s a headache.

At the same time, Syndergaard and Verlander are potential difference-makers. The kinda guys who can swing the balance of power in a division or postseason race. Risky? Sure. But also potentially great. The Yankees have an ace and several good back-end starters. That makes it a little easier to roll the dice on a high-upside guy coming off Tommy John surgery.

The Yankees gravitate toward stars and their pitching reclamation projects tend to be guys like Corey Kluber, a two-time Cy Young award winner. The Drew Smylys and Garrett Richardses aren’t their type. Syndergaard and Verlander would’ve fit their M.O., but also $20M+ on a Tommy John surgery guy who hasn’t pitched in two years? I can’t get mad about passing on that.

(I wrote separate blurbs on the Syndergaard signing and the Yankees pursuing Verlander before he re-signed with Houston. I put them in the content graveyard.)

Yankees met with Freeman

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees recently spoke with Freddie Freeman’s representatives, and also checked in on the other top free agent lefty hitting first basemen. We know they’ve kept in touch with Anthony Rizzo. I guess the others are Brandon Belt and Kyle Schwarber? That about covers it as far as lefty hitting free agent first basemen I’d qualify as “top” go.

Bob Nightengale says the Braves are offering five years and $135M (Paul Goldschmidt’s deal plus $1M per year) while Freeman is seeking six years and $200M. As good as Freeman is -- and he’s great -- that’s a ton of money for a first baseman’s age 32-37 seasons. That’s like paying 2012-16 Mark Teixeira without getting 2009-11 Teixeira at the front end of the deal.

The Yankees checked in on Freeman because they need a first baseman and because they check in on everyone. I would be very surprised if they spent big on first base though. If they make a huge signing, it will be a shortstop, and if they sign a first baseman, a Rizzo reunion is the most likely outcome. He fit well last year, the Yankees know him, and it would be a short-term deal.

I don’t see Freeman leaving the Braves, but the Yankees giving $100M+ to a 32-year-old first baseman seems like a bad idea given the state of the roster. In all likelihood DJ LeMahieu will finish his contract at first base, and the long-term DH spot is earmarked for Giancarlo Stanton. Signing Freeman would be a video game move, not something that makes sense for the roster.

Yankees would have traded Rodriguez

I missed this last week: Brian Cashman told Davidoff that, had the Yankees been unable to reach an agreement with Joely Rodriguez on his new one-year contract worth $2M, they would have picked up his $3M club option and traded him. Rodriguez received a $500,000 buyout, so between that and the new $2M deal, he’s down $500,000 had the option been picked up.

“He did a nice job for us. We feel like he’s a good choice to have down there,” Cashman told Davidoff. “... I don’t think he’s afraid here in New York. I think he obviously helped us a great deal down the stretch. It’s nice to know that as long as he stays healthy, we have a known commodity and where he fits in the comfort level.”

Two things about this. One, $1M is really the difference between “we’ll keep him” and “that’s too much, we’re going to trade him” with the sixth or seventh guy in the bullpen, huh? I get it. That’s not a roster spot teams typically spend much on. Rodriguez isn’t irreplaceable and $1M is a lot in real dollars. Just a little funny that the extra $1M was the tipping point for the Yankees.

And second, geez, Rodriguez must’ve been worried about free agency to agree to the pay cut. Thanks to the $500,000 buyout, he only needed a $2.5M deal to break even, and apparently he didn’t want to risk it. Maybe Rodriguez just really enjoyed his time with the Yankees and didn’t want to leave? Still, taking a pay cut so early in the winter suggests some fear of the market.

I wonder what kinda trade offers the Yankees got for Rodriguez before declining the club option and re-signing him. I don’t think they were anything great. The Yankees surely did the math and determined Rodriguez at $2M is better than whatever they could get for Rodriguez in a trade plus some other $2M reliever to replace him. Well, whatever. Welcome back, Joely.

10 reject qualifying offers

Wednesday was the deadline to accept or reject qualifying offers. Syndergaard, Verlander, and Eduardo Rodriguez signed before the deadline, and Belt accepted the qualifying offer to stay with the Giants. The other 10 free agents declined it: Correa, Freeman, Seager, Semien,  Story, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Raisel Iglesias, Robbie Ray, and Chris Taylor.

Because they did not pay luxury tax or receive revenue sharing this year, the Yankees will forfeit their second highest 2022 draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus pool money for next year’s signing period each time they sign a qualified free agent this offseason. (That’s not the international signing period that begins in January. It’s the one after that.)

No one likes giving up a draft pick or international bonus money, but the penalties aren’t nearly as harsh as they once were. To get an elite talent like Correa or Seager, who cares about a second round pick and 9% of your international bonus pool, give or take? It’s the cost of doing business. Anyway, this is official now. Those 10 free agents will require compensation.

2. The case for Semien. Reports about desired frugality aside, the Yankees need a shortstop and there are several top shortstops sitting in free agency, so we don’t have to try too hard to connect the dots. I prefer Carlos Correa. Corey Seager would work too. Among the other free agent shortstops is Marcus Semien, who played second base this past season.

Brian Cashman reportedly touched base with Semien’s agent (Scott Boras) at the GM Meetings last week, though I wouldn’t read much into that. Boras also represents Seager, and Cashman was always going to touch base with all the top free agent shortstops. He’s just covering his bases. Does Semien make sense for the Yankees? Let’s dive into his game.

A change in approach led to the power

Semien, 31, hit .265/.335/.538 (131 wRC+) with 45 home runs this past season, the most homers ever for a second baseman in a single season. Semien was even better in 2019 (.285/.369/.522 and 138 wRC+), albeit with only 33 homers. In the other five full seasons of his career he posted a wRC+ in the 91 to 98 range. He’s been an average at best hitter outside 2019 and 2021.

2019 and 2021 are Semien’s two most recent full seasons, of course, so they matter more than what he did from 2015-18, when he was approaching his peak rather than in his peak. This year’s power surge -- a power surge that came with a deadened baseball -- came courtesy of a pretty drastic change in approach. A graph is worth a thousand words:

Semien became an extreme pull hitter in 2021 (he had 71 plate appearances as a Sept. call up in 2013, don’t read anything into that year). He went from a 43.5% pull rate in 2020 to 51.3% in 2021, the third largest year-to-year increase in MLB. It’s the same adjustment Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion made. They got to Toronto, started pulling everything, and became stars.

With the power and pull rate increase came no change to Semien’s core plate discipline stats. Some guys sell out for power and sacrifice contact rate. Not Semien. He had a 20.2% strikeout rate, a 9.1% walk rate, an 8.7% swinging strike rate, and a 20.1% chase rate this season. His career averages: 20.2% strikeouts, 9.0% walks, 8.9% swinging strikes, and 21.6% chases.

In terms of AVG and OBP, that career year in 2019 is an outlier. He hit .285 with a .369 OBP that year. In just about every other season of his career, including 2021, Semien hit in the .250-.265 range with a .325ish OBP. That’s the guy you have to expect moving forward. He’s a good hitter who became a great hitter when he began pulling the ball for power.

Yankee Stadium is not the best place to be a pull right-handed hitter, though Semien wore the Yankees out in the Bronx this year (five homers in 10 games), and I don’t think you hit 45 homers solely by poking cheapies over the wall. There’s real power here. No, Semien isn’t the type of hitter who will benefit from the short right field porch, but the power is plenty good anyway.

Beyond the bat, Semien also brings speed and baserunning value. He went 15-for-16 stealing bases this year and has stolen at least 10 bases in every 162-game season since 2015. FanGraphs’ catch-all baserunning metric, which includes going first-to-third and things like that, has rated Semien as a comfortably above-average baserunner just about his entire career. Running the bases is an area the Yankees are sorely lacking.

The Yankees are righty heavy at the moment, particularly with righties who strike out a bunch, though that’s not Semien. Even with a 45-homer season under his belt, Semien is closer to a DJ LeMahieu type than an Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton behemoth. He won’t strike out excessively, he’ll add value on the bases, and now he hits dingers too. A whole lotta them.

The defense is very good (I think?)

Early in his career Semien was a brutal defensive shortstop and questions about his long-term position persisted. Over the years Semien made himself not just into a competent big league shortstop, but a legitimate above-average defender. He credits former Athletics infield coach Ron Washington for his help, but ultimately, the credit goes to Semien for the hard work.

"My second year into coaching (with the Athletics in 2016), I cut (the crap) and I told Marcus he has it. All he has to do is continue to believe, and go out there and get it done,” Washington told NBC Sports Bay Area in 2019. “I'm very proud of Marcus, and I'm proud to be a part of this.”

Semien voluntarily moved to second base this season in deference to Bo Bichette, though the Yankees need help at shortstop, and would look at him there (Semien said he is willing to play second base going forward, though he expects to be paid like a shortstop). Here are Semien’s shortstop numbers the last few seasons:

• 2018: +11 DRS and +1 OAA
• 2019: +7 DRS and -3 OAA
• 2020: -6 DRS and -9 OAA

The 2020 season was a bizarre short season (Semien told Ken Rosenthal his wife had a miscarriage last year, so it was a difficult year for him beyond the pandemic), so I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into it. That said, it is the last time Semien was a full-time shortstop, and at age 31, how seamless would the transition back over to short be? I don’t think anyone knows.

For what it’s worth, Semien was excellent at second base this year (+11 DRS and +7 OAA), so the defensive skills are still there. It’s just that, at age 31, you’d expect a guy to lose a little something defensively at shortstop anyway. Here are the leaders in games started at shortstop at age 31+ the last three years:

1. Elvis Andrus: 315
2. Brandon Crawford: 314
3. Miguel Rojas: 161
4. Andrelton Simmons: 126
5. Nick Ahmed: 118

Andrus and Crawford are the outliers. Otherwise this isn’t a position where teams commit big dollars to an over 30 player, and with Semien, we’re talking about a contract that covers what, his age 31-35 seasons? Is he really going to be a shortstop all those years? I suppose it doesn’t matter as long as he’s a shortstop in 2021, but you can’t plan your roster one year at a time.

Semien is so good and so instinctual that I think he’ll be a solid big league shortstop for at least another year or two, maybe longer. To me, he’s a Crawford type who ages gracefully rather than an Andrus or Simmons type who falls off a cliff. Point is, I don’t think this is quite as easy as “oh just put him back at short, he’ll be fine.” Being an over 30 shortstop isn’t easy.

He’s supremely durable

Over the last four seasons Semien has played 536 of 546 possible games (98%), including all 162 in 2019 and 2021. Seven of the 10 games he missed came last season, when he had an oblique issue and had to sit a few days (but was able to avoid the injured list). The best ability is availability and Semien has it. The guy plays every single game.

A player is durable until he isn’t -- Mark Teixeira played 150+ games a year like clockwork until suddenly he didn’t -- but Semien has no injury history to worry about. He hasn’t been prone to muscle pulls, hasn’t had a nagging issue that pops up once or twice a year, nothing. Some guys you have to expect they’ll miss time each year. That isn’t the case with Semien.

He won’t be as expensive as the other shortstops

In theory, anyway. Semien is the oldest of the top free agent shortstops and that will limit how many years he gets. Also, his track record as a truly elite player is shorter than Correa’s and Seager’s, which will also keep the price down. Semien’s going to get paid. No doubt. He just won’t get paid quite as well as Correa and Seager. The contract projections:

FanGraphs
1. Carlos Correa: 8 years, $240M ($30M per year)
2. Corey Seager: 7 years, $196M ($28M per year)
3. Trevor Story: 6 years, $150M ($25M per year)
4. Marcus Semien: 4 years, $92M ($23M per year)
5. Javier Baez: 4 years, $80M ($20M per year)

MLB Trade Rumors
1. Carlos Correa: 10 years, $320M ($32M per year)
2. Corey Seager: 10 years, $305M ($30.5M per year)
3. Marcus Semien: 6 years, $138M ($23M per year)
4. Trevor Story: 6 years, $126M ($21M per year)
5. Javier Baez: 5 years, $100M ($20M per year)

A five-year deal for Semien will cover his age 31-35 seasons. A 10-year deal for Correa will cover his age 27-36 seasons. You’re not getting those elite seasons up front with Semien, but you are getting a less painful rate for those early-to-mid-30s seasons. A worthwhile trade off? I guess it depends how you believe Semien will age. He could be the best bang for the buck.

It should also be noted Semien has long been regarded as an excellent clubhouse guy and a total pro who helps young players. If you want to sign the top shortstop who’s going to allow you to rest easy at night knowing he will represent the organization well on and off the field, and be a positive in the clubhouse, Semien’s the guy. Everyone raves about him.

"Everything we heard about him was exceptionally positive, and he has far exceeded our expectations," Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins told Jesse Rogers in July. "He puts a smile on my face. Marcus is so good for baseball. He's a calming, steady influence for us."

I have two concerns with Semien. One, he may not be a shortstop much longer, and two, you’re going to end up paying for a guy who’s already had his best years, like the Yankees are with DJ LeMahieu. That doesn’t mean I think Semien will be a bad player going forward. Just that I think he’s had his best years already, and you’ll pay an inflated price for his decline years.

For me, Correa and Seager are clearly the top two shortstop options. There’s a big gap between them and everyone else. I change my mind on this seemingly every day, but Semien is No. 3 for me right now because he’s reliable and a safe bet to be good at everything. Semien may never be 2019 or 2021 good again, but he should remain rock solid for another few years.

3. Minor league free agents. Like the big leaguers, eligible minor league players became free agents last Sunday. The Yankees added Donny Sands to the 40-man roster to prevent him from hitting the open market, though they still had 22 players become minor league free agents. Here is the full list from Baseball America. Let’s sift through those 22 players, shall we?

Big league veterans

• Position players: IF Kaleb Cowart, OF Jonathan Davis, OF Socrates Brito
• Pitchers: RHP Nick Goody, RHP Adam Warren

Only Davis spent time with the Yankees this year. He joined the Yankees on an August waiver claim and went 1-for-17 (.059) at the plate with one very nice catch in center field. Davis was designated for assignment to make room for one of Sal Romano’s many activations in September, and he’s already signed a minor league deal with the Brewers, according to Tom Haudricourt.

Kowart has not played since 2019 -- the Yankees signed him in Jan. 2020 and I didn’t even realize he was still in the organization -- and I’m not sure what’s up with that. Brito had a poor year with Triple-A Scranton (86 wRC+) and was never really considered for a call up. Goody used opt outs to go from Scranton to the Nationals' Triple-A affiliate to back to Scranton this summer.

Warren, now 34, spent the entire year with Triple-A Scranton as he returned from Tommy John surgery. He was just okay with the RailRiders, throwing 57.2 innings with a 3.59 ERA (4.13 FIP) with 23.6% strikeouts and 11.4% walks. I heard Warren was mostly 90-91 mph this summer, which is a good 2-3 mph below where he sat earlier in his career.

The Yankees had a few bullpen crises this summer and Warren is a recognizable name, but I don’t think he would have been a solution (and I love the guy). Not with a below-average heater and those blah Triple-A numbers. The Yankees have a stacked bullpen and I’m sure Warren will look for a team with more of an opportunity. I wish him luck and hope he gets back to the show.

Fringe big leaguers

• Position players: OF Trey Amburgey, SS Kyle Holder
• Pitchers: RHP David Sosebee

These three fall into the “could see MLB time but aren’t really prospects” bucket. Holder was a first round pick once upon a time (the Yankees selected him with the compensation pick they received when David Robertson signed with the White Sox) and he’s a great glove/no bat type. The Phillies and Reds gave him a look as a Rule 5 Draft pick once, but that went nowhere.

Amburgey was with the Yankees briefly as a COVID replacement this year. He went 0-for-4, hurt his hamstring running out a ground ball, and that was that. Amburgey hit five homers in his first nine Triple-A games this year and three in his final 62 games, and is a classic ‘tweener who lacks the defense for center and the bat for a corner, plus he’s on the short end of the platoon as a righty hitter.

Sosebee has been a good Triple-A reliever the last few years and isn’t overpowering, but does check some analytical boxes (spin, etc.). I could see the Yankees trying to bring Holder back given their shortstop situation (i.e. they don’t have one). Amburgey is bound to sign with a team where he won’t be blocked by Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo.

Minor league depth guys

• Position players: OF Isiah Gilliam, OF Thomas Milone, IF Brandon Wagner
• Pitchers: RHP Kevin Gadea, RHP Nick Green, RHP Justin O’Connor, RHP Jio Orozco, RHP Jefry Valdez

These guys were all prospects once upon a time. Gilliam got an overslot $550,000 bonus as a 20th round pick in 2015, but he never really took a step forward with the bat. Wagner had what looked like a breakout year with High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in 2018, then he stopped hitting. Green’s stuff has gone backward since leading the minors in ground ball rate in 2018.

I was unaware the Yankees even signed O’Connor. He was part of those terrible 2010-11 Rays drafts -- Tampa had 13 (!) first round picks those two drafts and only hit on one (Blake Snell), which is an awful success rate given the expected value of those high picks -- and was drafted as a catcher, but the Yankees signed him as a pitcher. O’Connor never actually appeared in a game with the Yankees though. No idea how the catcher-to-pitcher conversion is going.

Valdez was acquired in a minor trade that sent righty Jordan Foley to the Rockies a few years back (longtime RAB readers may remember Foley). Milone was interesting as a former third round pick with some tools. The Yankees signed him each of the last two offseasons, and he hit .280/.374/.450 (125 wRC+) with 10 homers in 96 games between Double-A and Triple-A this year. Another reunion may be in order. Milone turns 27 in January.

Last vestiges of the 2014-15 international spending spree

• Position players: OF Frederick Cuevas, OF Juan De Leon, 1B Dermis Garcia, IF Wilkerman Garcia, C Jason Lopez
• Pitchers: RHP Freicer Perez

It has been seven years since the Yankees made a mockery of MLB’s international free agent system and spent over $30M in bonuses and taxes despite having a $2.2M bonus pool. A few other teams later copied their strategy (Braves and Padres, most notably), and eventually that led to MLB installing the current international hard cap system.

Needless to say, the 2014-15 signing period did not work out as hoped. Estevan Florial is the only player from the signing class who remains in the organization as far as I can tell, and he was a $200,000 signing late in the signing period, not one of the premium guys who got a big bonus. Florial has the tools to be an impact player but hasn’t made much progress putting it together yet.

Hoy Jun Park ($1.2M bonus) and Diego Castillo ($750,000) were packaged together to get Clay Holmes and Miguel Yajure ($30,000) was part of the Jameson Taillon trade. Those three plus Florial are about it as far as useful pieces from the 2014-15 signing period go. Here are the seven-figure bonuses the Yankees gave out that signing period:

1. 1B Dermis Garcia ($3.2M): Hit 31 HR with a 37.9 K% in Double-A in 2021.
2. 3B Nelson Gomez ($2.25M): Never made it above Low-A.
3. OF Juan De Leon ($2M): Never made it above High-A.
4. OF Jonathan Amundaray ($2M): Never made it out of rookie ball.
5. IF Wilkerman Garcia ($1.35M): Never made it above High-A.
6. IF Hoy Jun Park ($1.2M): Became a trade chip.
7. 1B Miguel Flames ($1M): Never made it above Low-A.

In a word, oof. Garcia (Wilkerman, not Dermis) had a huge pro debut in 2015 and looked like a blossoming top prospect, then he just stopped hitting. Freicer Perez had a breakout season in 2017, then suffered a catastrophic shoulder injury early in 2018, and that was that. He came back this year and showed greatly diminished stuff in 21.2 minor league innings.

I wrote a more in-depth look at the 2014-15 signing period in Dec. 2017 and even then, only three years out, it was becoming clear the signing spree wouldn’t yield much. I unofficially count 20 players who received a six-figure bonus that signing period, including 11 who received at least $500,000, and the return basically boils down to Holmes, a portion of the Taillon trade, and whatever Florial gives the Yankees. What was supposed to be a franchise-altering infusion of talent never materialized.

4. Awards recap. This week was awards week and I had a few quick thoughts that turned out to be too long for the rapid fire section. First, no Yankee received a Rookie of the Year vote for the third straight year. That’s after a Yankee finished at least second in the voting every year from 2016-18. The well was going to dry up eventually and dry up it has.

Second, Aaron Boone did not receive a Manager of the Year vote. Including the three guys fired last year, 10 of the 18 American League managers received at least one Manager of the Year vote the last two seasons, but not Boone. First time since 1989 and 1990 the Yankees manager didn’t get a vote (even a third place vote) in back-to-back years. Pretty incredible.

Third, Gerrit Cole finished second in the Cy Young voting behind Robbie Ray, as expected. He received one first place vote and Ray received the other 29. I’m not surprised it was a landslide. Recency bias can play a role in the voting and Cole limped to the finish after hurting his hamstring. He lost the Cy Young award with those bad last few starts more than Ray won it, I’d say.

This is the highest a Yankee has finished in the Cy Young voting since Chien-Ming Wang was the runner-up behind Johan Santana in 2006. I thought CC Sabathia was the runner-up one year, but nope. He finished third behind Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander in 2010. The Yankees have not had a Cy Young winner since Roger Clemens in 2001.

Over in the National League, Corbin Burnes beat out Zack Wheeler in the closest NL Cy Young vote ever. They were separated by only 10 voting points -- they each received 12 first place votes, but Burnes had more second place votes -- even though Wheeler threw nearly 50 (!) more innings than Burnes. The numbers quick:

• Burnes: 2.43 ERA (1.63 FIP) with 35.6 K% and 5.2 BB% in 167 IP
• Wheeler: 2.78 ERA (2.59 FIP) with 29.1 K% and 5.4 BB% in 213.1 IP

Burnes is the first pitcher since at least 1900 to lead all qualified pitchers in strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate. He is a deserving winner, certainly, though I would have given my vote to Wheeler. I want quality and quantity from my Cy Young winner, and that’s too big an innings gap to ignore. Wheeler was fantastic and threw the equivalent of 6-7 more starts.

Is this the start of a trend? Blake Snell (180.2 innings) beat out Verlander (214) in 2018, remember. That gap wasn’t as large as the Burnes/Wheeler gap, but it wasn’t small. Are the voters shifting toward per-innings dominance over bulk excellence? Not sure I can get on board with that yet. Innings matter. Burnes only narrowly beat out Wheeler, though this may be becoming A Thing.

And fourth, Bryce Harper took home the NL MVP, becoming only the fifth player ever to win MVP with two different teams. Barry Bonds, Jimmie Foxx, Frank Robinson, and Alex Rodriguez also did it. Only Harper and Bonds managed to do it before turning 30. Remember when the Yankees didn’t sign Harper? Didn’t even bother to wine and dine him. Good times.

(Buster Posey hit .304/.390/.499 (140 wRC+) as a catcher with a ton of defensive value on a 107-win team this year, yet he received just one tenth place MVP vote. Huh. You’d think both old school and new school voters would show that guy a ton of love, but nope.)

Shohei Ohtani won AL MVP unanimously, as he should have. Easiest MVP call of my lifetime. Vlad Guerrero Jr. predictably finished second in the voting and Marcus Semien predictably finished third. Felt like that exact 1-2-3 was set in stone as early as July. Aaron Judge finished fourth and did manage to steal three third place votes away from Semien. Ohtani, Guerrero, Semien, and Judge were the only players to appear on all 30 MVP ballots.

Cole got some down ballot MVP support (one eighth place vote and one tenth place vote), but not Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton was a beast this year and he and Judge carried the Yankees for long stretches of time. Even as close to a full-time DH, I thought he might snag a handful of votes in the 7-10 range. Kinda bummed. Was hoping Giancarlo would get a little recognition.

Anyway, here is the full AL Cy Young and AL MVP voting, if you’re interested. The Yankees still haven’t had a major award winner since Judge was named Rookie of the Year in 2017. Unless things go horribly wrong next season, Judge and Cole should again be in contention for MVP and Cy Young, respectively. Now that the awards have been announced, we can close the book on the 2021 season. Onward.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. From the no duh department: Hal Steinbrenner confirmed he voted in favor of MLB’s proposal that would lower the luxury tax threshold to $180M in exchange for a $100M salary floor. Here’s what he said, via Jeff Passan:

"All I can tell you is there's seven of us on labor policy," Steinbrenner said. "Boston, several mid-markets, couple small markets. We're a very diverse group. And when we came up with a proposal, including (competitive balance tax) and luxury tax, that we brought to the union, it was a unanimous -- on our committee -- a unanimous deal. And every owner on the committee, there are certainly things in the proposal that we didn't like. Every owner. But we wanted to put together a proposal that addressed their concerns and come together as a group and really do that. And we did. But specific things? Nothing's ever going to be perfect. In anything."

Just to recap: Hal is on the committee that crafts luxury tax proposals, and he voted in favor of a system that would further restrict his team’s ability to use its inherent market advantage. He could have given a token “no” vote just to maintain the facade that he’s willing to spend more on player payroll than he has and the proposal still would’ve been approved by the committee, but nope. I appreciate the honesty. It’s all out there in the open now. No need for conjecture. The owner of the Yankees is in favor of a system that would restrict how much the Yankees can freely spend. Not surprising given the team’s behavior the last few years … Another one from Steinbrenner: Hal told Ken Davidoff there have been no discussions about a contract extension for Brian Cashman, who has one year left on his deal. Cashman has never signed a contract extension. Every contract he’s signed came after his previous contract expired, so this is par for the course. The Mets abandoned their president of baseball operations search and recently hired Billy Eppler, Cashman’s former right hand man, to be their general manager. If nothing else, Cashman will be able to plausibly use the Mets as leverage during contract talks with the Yankees. There would be no awkwardness taking over as Eppler’s boss given their history, and I’m guessing Steve Cohen would let Cashman name his price given how humiliating their president of baseball operations search has been the last two years. The Yankees are the only employer Cashman has had in his adult life and he is very loyal to the team. He’s not dumb though. He will absolutely use the Mets as leverage next offseason … And finally, MLB announced the details of their minor league housing plan, and they’re pretty good. They will provide players with a furnished living space and pay utilities, and the team will be on the lease, making it easy for players to change levels (or teams). No more figuring out what to do with your apartment in Somerset after you get promoted to Scranton. Here’s the press release. The housing plan applies to players on minor league deals only (so not guys on the 40-man roster signed to split Major League contracts and making a living wage). I’m pleasantly surprised. Good work, MLB.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Brian asks: Under the expiring CBA how long, in theory, can a team control a player between pre-Rule 5 years, options years, and up and down service time manipulation? If a player is drafted as a 21 year old from college when is the latest he can become a free agent assuming he's never outrighted?

Kyle Higashioka will push team control to its limit. He was drafted out of high school in 2008 and his career has played out like so:

• 2009-16: Minor league control years prior to minor league free agency.
• 2017-19: Three minor league option years after being added to 40-man in Oct. 2016.
• 2020-24: Five team control years (he accrued a year of service time from 2017-19).
• After 2024: Becomes MLB free agent at age 34.

Higashioka was drafted as an 18-year-old and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after his age 34 season (he’ll turn 35 in April of the first year of his first free agent contract). The Yankees didn’t manipulate his service time and other teams had multiple shots at him in the Rule 5 Draft. Higashioka was just pushed to the limit of the current system.

That’s an extreme example. The typical college player will get drafted at age 21 and can then spend his age 22-24 seasons in the minors, use his three minor league option years from ages 25-27 after being added to the 40-man roster to avoid Rule 5 Draft exposure, then burn his six years of MLB team control from 28-33. That’s more or less the path Luke Voit is on.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement gives teams so much control over a player. They can follow the rules to the letter and keep him in the organization upwards of 12 years, potentially even more in an extreme example like Higashioka. In none of the other major sports can teams control players that long. Not even close, really. Just another thing the MLBPA needs to fix.

Alessandro asks: His injury risk is huge, and he's going to probably command a multi-year deal, but what about Carlos Rodon (as an addition to the rotation, not THE addition)?

Rodon will turn 29 next month and he threw 132.2 innings with a 2.37 ERA (2.65 FIP) and excellent strikeout (34.6%) and walk (6.7%) rates this year. The White Sox didn’t make him the qualifying offer, though I’m pretty sure that’s classic Jerry Reinsdorf cheapness rather than an indication his medicals are so bad they don’t want to risk paying him $18.4M next season.

That dominant performance came with a significant uptick in velocity. Rodon went from sitting 92-93 mph the last few years to sitting 96-97 mph early this season, and touching 100 mph. Prior to 2021, Rodon had not thrown a pitch over 97.4 mph since 2017. This year he threw 209 -- 209! -- pitches over 97.4 mph. He’s chalked the velocity up to good health.

Rodon came down with a shoulder issue late in the season -- he made two carefully monitored starts on a pitch limit the final three weeks of the regular season -- and his velocity dipped noticeably. It shot back up in the ALDS (thanks to postseason adrenaline?), but yeah, this kinda dip is scary:

I think Rodon fits into the same reclamation project bucket as Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander, though he’s not coming back from Tommy John surgery. He’s coming back from a late season shoulder issue, and he has a long history of arm problems. Keep Rodon healthy and you might have an ace. He’s averaged only 89 innings in the last four 162-game seasons though. You can’t count on him staying healthy and productive all year.

Alessandro mentioned Rodon as a possible addition to the rotation but not THE addition to the rotation, which I take to mean treating him as an upside play and acquiring someone else to be the No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole. I’m kinda sick of the “he could be really good if he stays healthy” profile, but if he’s not the guy and just a roll of the dice, sure. Go for it. Signing Rodon and penciling him as the No. 2 behind Cole would be too risky for my liking. Let’s add some certainty to the rotation before taking gambles.

Sam asks: Every Twitter GM is putting Gleyber in trades in order to make room for DJ. And I understand, he can be moved easier because he is younger and cheaper. But should the Yankees explore trading DJ instead? The length of DJ's contract makes it tough, but the money per year isn't terrible. What teams would be interested? Seattle? Angels? Marlins?

The Yankees are going to have a logjam at second base soon. It is DJ LeMahieu’s and Gleyber Torres’ best position, and only one guy can play there. LeMahieu has shown some versatility, so it’s not an urgent matter, though he didn’t look great at third base this year, and his bat will be light at first base. It’s not a problem yet, but it could be soon.

Trading LeMahieu would be preferable to trading Torres because he’s older, more expensive, and less likely to rebound given his age. I don’t think that’s unreasonable. If you’re asking me which player I expect to bounce back, I’m going to take the 25-year-old over the 33-year-old, especially when they’ve both shown the same worrisome trends (i.e. weaker contact).

LeMahieu has a full no-trade clause and he’s given no indication he will waive it. He’s happy with the Yankees and said he never intended to leave when he was a free agent. Maybe LeMahieu would be open to waiving his no-trade clause to join the Tigers, who are making an effort to improve and play near his home in Michigan? Is it even worth asking?

The full no-trade clause becomes a partial no-trade clause from 2023-26, though he’ll pick up 5-and-10 rights after 2023, so 2023 is the only chance the Yankees will have to trade LeMahieu without his permission. He will submit a five-team no-trade list that year, leaving 24 other teams he can be dealt to without his permission. How many will want him then? Who knows.

LeMahieu’s trade value in 2023 will be tied to how well he performs in 2022 and what the new Collective Bargaining Agreement does to the sport’s economic structure. Trading LeMahieu now seems like it would be close to impossible given the year he just had, the money he’s still owed (five years and $75M), and the full no-trade clause. Too many hurdles to clear.

Also, trading a player -- especially a respected player like LeMahieu who had MVP caliber years in your uniform -- one year into a six-year contract won’t help when you’re pursuing free agents in the future. Players and agents will notice how quickly you were willing to dump a guy so soon after signing him to a big deal. Stuff like that matters. Professional relationships matter.

The Angels, Dodgers, Mariners, Nationals, Tigers, White Sox, and maybe the Phillies stand out as possible suitors for LeMahieu should the Yankees approach him about a trade and he gives them the okay to look around. I don’t expect it to happen though. The Yankees will soon have to reckon with the “Torres and LeMahieu are both second basemen” problem, but not just yet.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)