November 12th, 2021: Rodriguez, Shortstops, Olson, Marte, Bullpen, Mailbag

PSA: The Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Game will be on MLB Network at 7pm ET tomorrow. Austin Wells and Elijah Dunham will represent the Yankees, so, if you’re jonesin’ for real live baseball, you can watch some prospects tomorrow night. Now let’s get today’s post. I apologize it is shorter than usual, but the Offseason Plan ate up most of my free time this week.

1. Joely returns. Welcome back, Joely Rodriguez. The Yankees re-signed Rodriguez to a new one-year contract earlier this week, the team announced. The Associated Press says the deal is worth $2M guaranteed with an extra $50,000 each for 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 appearances. The contract is already official. No waiting around for a physical or anything.

Rodriguez, 29, came over from the Rangers in the Joey Gallo trade and was quite good with the Yankees in a limited role, pitching to a 2.84 ERA (3.01 FIP) in 19 innings. As noted in this space several times in recent weeks, Rodriguez is a dominant left-on-left guy, but not so good against righties. His numbers the last two seasons (since returning from Japan):

• vs. LHB: .200/.277/.267 (.248 wOBA) with 32.1 K% and 74.5 GB%
• vs. RHB: .305/.357/.404 (.328 wOBA) with 21.1 K% and 50.4 GB%

Rodriguez is not the typical fastball/slider lefty specialist. He’s a sinker/changeup guy, which fits perfectly with the team’s new bullpen-building philosophy. Wandy Peralta is a sinker/changeup guy, Jonathan Loaisiga became one this year, Clay Holmes has a turbo sinker, etc. Elevated four-seamers are growing outdated. Now it’s power pitches that dive hard at the plate*.

* This could be in response to the foreign substance ban. Generally speaking, you want less spin on pitches that move down, so sticky stuff wouldn’t help with them. The Yankees shifted toward sinkers and changeups even before the crackdown, though there were rumblings the crackdown was coming as far back as last year. I think the Yankees just tried to get out in front of it.

As noted by Lucas Apostoleris, Joely’s changeup is a bit of a freak pitch. It had the lowest spin rate of any changeup in baseball this season (1,122 rpm on average) despite averaging 88.4 mph. Usually more velocity equals more spin. Rodriguez has somehow mastered the high velocity/low spin changeup. This is tough (video link):

The arm angle, the sinker velocity, and the unicorn changeup make Rodriguez an uncomfortable at-bat, at least for lefties. The only concern with him is usage, and that’s an Aaron Boone thing more than a Rodriguez thing. It’s up to the manager to put his players in position to succeed, and to be fair, Boone did that with Rodriguez. Some numbers on his stint in pinstripes:

• 12 times in 21 appearances Rodriguez was brought in with at least one out in the inning, meaning he wouldn’t have had to face the minimum three batters had he retired the first two. Six times he was brought in with two outs and could have been one and done.
• 0.98 average leverage index when entering the game was seventh among the team’s regular relievers after the trade deadline, so Rodriguez was mostly a low leverage guy.
• Faced 51 lefties and only 28 righties (and switch-hitters). Getting Rodriguez the platoon advantage 65% of the time is pretty good in the three-batter minimum era, I’d say.

For at least two months, Boone used Rodriguez well. He didn’t see much high leverage work, he faced mostly lefties, and more than half his appearances put him in position to face fewer than three batters. There are some great lefty hitters in the AL East (Rafael Devers, Cedric Mullins, Austin Meadows if he’s not traded, etc.), so Rodriguez will be useful as long as he’s used properly.

The Yankees declined Rodriguez’s $3M club option this past weekend, triggering a $500,000 buyout. Texas was responsible for that, however. Declining the $3M option and then re-signing Rodriguez to a $2M deal saves the Yankees a million bucks (or $750,000 if he hits all the games pitched bonuses). $1M is a drop in the bucket for this franchise, but it is a lot of real money.

I thought Rodriguez was good value at $3M, though I understood the Yankees passing on the option. They need the 40-man spot in the short-term (the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is next Friday) and Rodriguez seems like the type you’d be able to replace with a similarly effective pitcher at a lower salary. Turns out that similarly effective pitcher at a lower salary is Rodriguez himself.

($2M is such an insignificant sum in the grand scheme of things. With the Yankees likely going over the luxury tax threshold in 2022, I would imagine they’d simply cut Rodriguez should the performance warrant it. No need to make salary dump trades like with Justin Wilson.)

The 40-man roster is now full -- the Yankees cleared a spot when they declined Rodriguez’s club option, then they gave it right back to him -- so moves are coming ahead of the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. Chris Gittens and Rougned Odor would appear to be most in danger of losing their spots, but the Yankees will need more than that. We’ll see what happens.

2. GM Meetings rumors. The GM Meetings took place this week and I saw a quote from one GM (I think it was Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto) who said the GM Meetings are the new Winter Meetings in terms of free agent and trade discussions. Nothing really happened this week, though apparently lots of talks happen behind the scenes. Here’s the latest on the Yankees.

Cashman meets with Correa’s and Seager’s agents

During the GM Meetings this week Brian Cashman met with the representatives for free agent shortstops Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, he confirmed to multiple reporters. Correa is represented by Jon Rosen, Seager by Scott Boras. Boras also represents fellow notable free agents Michael Conforto, Max Scherzer, and Marcus Semien, among others.

“(Correa) is just a very talented player, obviously,” Cashman told Chandler Rome. “Puts up numbers with the best of them. He’s obviously had an incredible career thus far. Certainly not afraid. He’s pushed forward, regardless of the circumstances. He’s clearly not afraid because (the sign-stealing scandal fallout) has not affected his play.”

Cashman added the potential fan reaction to a Correa signing “is not going to enter my calculus right now,” and good. You can’t let fans dictate your moves. Fans are hypocrites (we totally are). We’ll boo the hell out of Correa when he’s wearing an Astros uniform and cheer him like crazy when he’s getting big hits in pinstripes. This is how fandom works.

Anyway, Cashman was always going to meet with Correa’s and Seager’s agents. The only real news here is that the meetings happened already. The Yankees seem poised to spend given Cashman’s comments about having payroll “latitude,” and if the Yankees are going to spend, spend on a shortstop. It’s a glaring need and there are two franchise shortstops sitting in free agency.

Correa and Seager are both great players and I’d be happy with either, though I prefer Correa because I feel better about him staying at shortstop long-term. I do wonder whether this is a situation where the Yankees will just sign whichever one gives them the better deal. Correa and Seager are both great, but if one is 2-3 years and a few million cheaper annually, then that could make picking between them easier.

Whenever he has an elite free agent client, Boras tends to wait out the market so his guy is the last man standing, and teams have nowhere else to turn. History suggests his strategy with Seager will be to wait until Correa signs, sets the market, then try to top it with the only star shortstop available. Given that, Correa may sign first, even though a signing isn’t imminent.

Like I said, Cashman was always going to meet with Correa’s and Seager’s agents. He always checks in on the top free agents even when the Yankees aren’t planning to spend big. It looks like they will this winter though, and the fit on the field is obvious. I think we’re months away from a resolution given the looming lockout, but the wheels are moving in the right direction.

(Yesterday Cashman told Bryan Hoch he’s spoken to the representatives for “most, but not all” of the top free agent shortstops, not just Correa and Seager. No surprise here. He has to cover all his bases.)

Yankees interested in Olson

According to Jon Morosi, the Yankees have interest in Athletics first baseman Matt Olson, as do several other teams. “Have interest in” is one of the most meaningless hot stove phrases there is, and yet we eat it up each winter. Of course the Yankees have interest in Olson! He’s a great player and teams always have interest in great players. I mean, duh.

Really though, having interest in Olson is the bare minimum. The Yankees not having interest in Olson would be the real story. They need a first baseman, preferably a lefty hitter with power and good defense and not a lot of strikeouts, and that’s Olson. He is close to a perfect fit given their needs. The A’s are cutting payroll, so obviously he will be available.

As much as I want the Yankees to get Olson (he was a big part of my Offseason Plan), I’m not going to get too excited over a report that they’re interested in him. Having interest in a player and pursuing a player are different things. Let’s see how aggressively the Yankees pursue him in the coming weeks before celebrating. Olson’s such a great fit though. An ideal fit, really.

(Not surprisingly, Cashman told Ken Davidoff he has spoken to Anthony Rizzo’s agent. “(We were) expressing the possibility of bringing him back … I know he liked it here, I know we liked having him, but nothing has gone past that,” Cashman said. I’m not thrilled with the idea of a Rizzo reunion, but if the Yankees can’t get Olson, he’s might be their best option at first base.)

Marte on the radar

Free agent Starling Marte is on the Yankees radar “at the very least,” according to Brendan Kuty. Cashman has said he will “evaluate” the center field position and Marte is by far the best free agent center fielder who is actually a center fielder. The other free agent center fielders are guys who play other positions and have some experience in center (Kris Bryant, Mark Canha, etc.).

FanGraphs predicts four years and $72M for Marte, MLBTR a little north of that at four years and $80M. I was thinking five years and $80M along the lines of Lorenzo Cain and Dexter Fowler, but geez, I didn’t realize Marte is already 33. I would’ve guessed 31. How much longer will he remain an above-average center fielder? It’s a young man’s position.

Given the team’s needs and the market, my guess is the Yankees view Marte as a backup plan in case they can’t land a top shortstop. Correa and Seager sign elsewhere, so the Yankees pivot to a cheaper shortstop and also bring in Marte to play center. That kinda thing. Marte and a top shortstop seems unlikely unless they move money (Joey Gallo?)

That said, I suppose the Yankees could view 2022 as a “let’s just spend whatever” year because there’s so much money coming off the books next offseason. Still, sign a top shortstop and Marte and we’re talking something like $50M annually for two players. The Yankees doing that would lead me to believe Aaron Judge will be wearing a different uniform in 2023.

(Morosi adds the Yankees are a “potential suitor” for Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds. I answered a mailbag question about Reynolds last month. Keep in mind “potential suitor” is even further down the meaningless hot stove jargon spectrum than “have interest in.”)

Teams calling Yankees about relievers

Teams are calling the Yankees about their relievers, Cashman told Hoch. "Ultimately we’re going to continue to reinforce. We’ve got a lot of teams asking about our bullpen at the same time. We might be importing some, we could eventually be exporting others. It’s just the constant shifting of the sands,” the GM said.

Even with Zack Britton out, the Yankees have nine relievers for eight bullpen spots: Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Clay Holmes, Mike King, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lucas Luetge, Wandy Peralta, Joely Rodriguez, and the out of options Albert Abreu. Rodriguez isn’t going anywhere. He just re-signed*. It’s easy to come up with reasons to trade the other guys:

• Abreu: No track record and lack of minor league options limits roster flexibility.
• Chapman: Expensive and was pretty bad after May (he has a no-trade clause).
• Green: Down to his final year of team control.
• Holmes: Track record of being good is two months long.
• King: A team could overpay if they see him as a starter.
• Loaisiga: Long and scary arm injury history.
• Luetge: Short track record as a 34-year-old who came out of nowhere.
• Peralta: Even at his best, he’s good rather than great.

* As a recently signed free agent, Rodriguez can not be traded until June 15th without his consent. The Yankees didn’t sign him just so he would consent to being flipped elsewhere. Rodriguez is part of the bullpen plan going into 2022. In a weird way, he has the most job security among the team's relievers at the moment.

Pitching depth has a way of disappearing and hanging onto everyone would be justifiable. King can go to Triple-A and wait for the inevitable injury. It’s not ideal, King looked like a real weapon in relief late in the season, but I don’t think he’d have to wait long for a call up. There’s things always always always sort themselves out quickly.

That all said, the Yankees are very good at building bullpens, and they have a pipeline of power arms sitting in the minors. Guys like Luis Gil, Stephen Ridings, and Clarke Schmidt could step in whenever necessary, ditto non-40-man players like Zach Greene and Ron Marinaccio. Plus the Yankees seem to pull good relievers out of a hat. Holmes? Luetge? Peralta? I mean, how do they keep doing this?

I am totally cool with trading a reliever or three to strengthen other parts of the roster. Obviously you can’t just give these guys away, but if, say, moving Green can net you a young center fielder or a catcher, the Yankees must consider it. Luetge strikes me as a candidate to move within the next week to clear 40-man space for the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline. We’ll see. I am pro trading relievers though. The Yankees are good at building bullpens, so leverage that skill.

Yankees open to acquiring catcher

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are “open to acquiring” a catcher. I bet they're open to acquiring Wander Franco too, but things don't always work out the way we want. The free agent catching market is just awful this winter, and the best trade candidates are Willson Contreras and Carson Kelly. Just a great big meh. Very curious to see what the Yankees do behind the plate this offseason, if anything.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Emiliano asks: I know trading players for the sake of trading players it's not smart. But, the Giants just lost Posey and they are a very smart team. You think they will be interested in Gary? What would you ask in return?

I don’t think the Giants will have interest in Gary Sanchez but it’s not a crazy idea. They could bring in Sanchez for a year, give top prospect Joey Bart a little more time in the minors (or have him split catching duties with Gary to ease him into everyday action), then let Gary walk next offseason (and get a draft pick?) and turn the catching reins over to Bart full-time in 2023.

As I’ve said the last few weeks, I don’t think Sanchez has much trade value because he’s not cheap anymore, and because the Yankees have telegraphed they’re ready to move on. I think they can get more for Gary than the Reds got for Tucker Barnhart (a non-prospect, basically), but I don’t think Sanchez is bringing back a top prospect or anything significant like that.

Looking over San Francisco’s roster, I wonder whether they’d do Tommy La Stella for Sanchez. La Stella was hurt and ineffective this year (.250/.308/.405 and 94 wRC+) and he has two years and $16.75M remaining on his contract ($6.25M luxury tax hit). The Giants get a catcher and move out an infielder, freeing them up to pursue, say, Marcus Semien to play second.

The Yankees would get an extreme lefty contact guy (La Stella has an 8.3% strikeout rate and an 8.2% walk rate since 2019) who can play first, second, and third. He’d essentially replace Rougned Odor as the extra infielder, and what you sacrifice in power you make up in on-base ability and versatility. I dunno. Just an idea. Not sure the Giants will go after Sanchez though.

John asks: Is it just the fact that the offseason just started and I’m not used to the perpetuity of noise / rumors, or does it actually seem like there’s significantly more rumors this year? I wonder if the NYY FO has a sense of urgency to try (being the operative word) to get something done before the impending lockout.

It does seem like there have been more rumors than usual the last two weeks, though I think that says more about the reporters than the teams. These days every single little nugget gets tweeted and aggregated, no matter how minute the details. Like I said earlier with the “have interest in” and “potential suitor” stuff, much of what we read is meaningless.

Maybe the looming lockout has changed things and the Yankees are eager to get something done before the sport shuts down for who knows how long. They’re not going to rush into anything though. That’s how you make bad decisions. I’m inclined to think the uptick in rumors has mostly due to reporters passing along everything rather than parsing the information and only passing along what’s real and relevant.

Dan asks: What do you make of Sandy Alderson claiming NYC is a deterrent in his managerial search? What do you think of the Mets in general right now?

Alderson’s New York excuse is such a joke. Here’s what he said when asked about the team’s trouble getting candidates to interview for their president of baseball operations job (via James Wagner):

“And in other cases, there’s a reluctance to come to New York. But I think it’s mostly about New York, not about (owner Steve Cohen) or the organization. It’s a big stage and some people prefer to be elsewhere … If you’re looking to be comfortable, the Mets are probably not the place to come. If you’re looking to be challenged and rewarded -- because I don’t think there’s any doubt that this team is going to be successful over the next number of years -- then go for it.”

Dude, get real. There are only 30 head of baseball operations jobs on the planet and I reckon a full 100% of current front office employees across the entirety of baseball have dreamed of one day having one of those 30 jobs. “Afraid to come to New York” will placate certain fans, but I think we're all smart enough to see through it. All Alderson is doing is making excuses though. He’s deflecting blame.

The problem is Alderson himself. The candidates they’re targeting are not going to join the Mets when Alderson would rank above them as team president, and threaten to undermine their authority. Cohen should dump Alderson, who is behind the times based on the teams he’s built, and start offering the team president job. Then the Mets will have folks lining up to interview.

The Mets job should -- should -- be the most desirable job in the sport right now. They’re a big market team with a beautiful ballpark, a dedicated fan base, an owner willing to spend, talent on the MLB roster (Pete Alonso, Jacob deGrom, Francisco Lindor, etc.), and talent in the minors (Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, etc.). What more could you possibly want as an executive?

And yet, the Mets can’t get folks to interview for the second straight offseason. This must be humiliating for them. Cohen’s arrival was supposed to be a fresh start and the beginning of a new era of Mets dominance. Instead, it’s the same old Wilpons era incompetence. Blaming the lack of interest in the top baseball operations job on New York is ridiculous. Look in the mirror.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)