November 5th, 2021: Gardner, O'Day, Catching Market, World Series, Mailbag

Programming note: I’m planning to skip the regularly scheduled post on Friday, Nov. 26th. That’s three weeks from today and it’s the day after Thanksgiving. If there’s breaking news, I’ll happily cover it, otherwise I’m going to lay low during the holiday weekend. Let’s get today’s post.

1. Gardner and O’Day options declined. The first moves of the offseason have arrived. Last night the Yankees announced they’ve declined their club options for Brett Gardner and Darren O’Day, and Gardner and O’Day declined their player options as well. The former isn’t surprising. The latter? Didn’t see that coming. Here are the options terms:

• Brett Gardner: $7.15M club option ($1.15M buyout) and $2.3M player option
• Darren O’Day: $1.75M club option and $1.4M player option ($700,000 buyout)

Gardner gets a $1.15M buyout and walks away from $2.3M. O’Day gets a $700,000 buyout and leaves another $700,000 on the table. Their contracts were structured in such a way to spread the luxury tax hit out across two years, so the Yankees will carry a $2.575M charge for Gardner and a $1.575M charge for O’Day in 2022. Not substantial but not zero either.

Let’s start with the easy stuff: O’Day declining the player option really surprises me. He just turned 39 and is coming off his second major left hamstring surgery in four years. He’s not in good position to cash in this offseason, and could even be looking at a forced retirement. I thought O’Day would take the player option and force the Yankees to release him if they don’t want him.

Gardner declining the player option does not necessarily mean his time with the Yankees is over. They can’t seem to quit the guy, and he finished this season very strong. He played over Luke Voit in August and September! Gardner might have turned down the $2.3M player option because he thinks he can get more in free agency. One year and $4M or so?

That said, a few weeks ago Gardner acknowledged he will have “real serious conversations” with his family about his future. Here’s what he told Bryan Hoch at the end of the season:

"This game has been great to me and great to my family," Gardner said. "The longer you play and the older your kids get, the harder it gets, and the more things I missed out on, not being able to see them back home doing their thing. It's harder to be together all the time.

"I’ll obviously have some real serious conversations. I’m fortunate to have a great family and have always had all their support. We’ll see where the next few weeks and months take us, but physically I’m healthy and I feel strong. I feel like I can continue to play this game at a high level. I do feel like I still have a lot to give.”

Gardner turned 38 in August and at this point the question is whether he wants to come back to try to win another championship. Otherwise he’s accomplished everything a player could hope to accomplish. He won a ring in 2009, went to an All-Star game, made a bunch of money, got his 10 years of service time, the works. Not many more boxes to check off.

This is probably too conspiracy theory-y, but I wonder whether Gardner will spend the next few weeks mulling over his future, and the Yankees said we’ll bring you back at the same $2.3M as the player option if you decide to continue playing again. They essentially extended the player option deadline indefinitely. Crazy? Yeah, probably. Impossible? Nope!

Remember, the Yankees did not sign Gardner until after pitchers and catchers reported this past season. They’re willing to wait for him, or at least they were last offseason. Maybe the Yankees no longer feel that way given the pretty obvious need for change with the position player core. Gardner or not, they need a fourth outfielder, preferably a lefty hitter who can play center.

Also, Gardner and O’Day declining their player options opens one 40-man roster spot, not two, because O’Day was on the 60-day injured list. He didn’t count against the 40-man. Corey Kluber and Anthony Rizzo became free agents earlier this week, opening another two spots. So, at the moment, the Yankees have three open 40-man roster spots.

Sunday is the deadline to activate players off the 60-day injured list and the Yankees have six players to activate: Voit, Zack Britton, Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, Aaron Hicks, and Tim Locastro. They’ll have to open another three spots to accommodate those guys, though it won’t be tough. Greg Allen, Rob Brantly, and Andrew Velazquez (and Locastro) are easily droppable.

The Yankees still have one more option decision to make prior to Sunday’s deadline: Joely Rodriguez’s $2.5M club option. I think it will be declined given their ability to build bullpens, but who knows. I thought Gardner and (definitely) O’Day would pick up their player options and look how that turned out. Declining Rodriguez’s option would open another 40-man spot. For now, Gardner and O’Day declining their options is the first surprise of the winter.

2. Barnhart traded to Tigers. We got our first trade of the offseason Wednesday, not even 24 hours after the Braves won the World Series. The Reds sent catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers for infield prospect Nick Quintana. Cincinnati will turn the catching reins over to Tyler Stephenson and Detroit will pick up Barnhart’s $7.5M club option. A sensible, boring trade.

This sensible, boring trade has ramifications for the Yankees, who, at the very least, figure to spend time this offseason trying to replace Gary Sanchez. Let’s talk out what this sensible, boring trade means for the Yankees.

Top (?) catcher off the board

Barnhart was arguably the best available catcher this offseason. The free agent market is weak and who knows whether some of the trade candidates (Willson Contreras, Carson Kelly, Jacob Stallings, etc.) will actually be available. Barnhart was definitely going to be available though. Stephenson is very good and the Reds weren’t paying $7.5M for a backup catcher.

Being (arguably) the best available catcher and being a starting catcher are different things, of course. Barnhart is an above-average defender with an 80 wRC+ since 2019 and no reason to expect the bat to improve. That’s pretty much the minimum acceptable standard on offense, even behind the plate, so Barnhart needs to be great defensively to be worth a roster spot.

Anyway, Barnhart is no longer an option for the Yankees in a thin catching market. Here are the best available catchers by projected 2022 WAR (just to show what we’re dealing with here, not to definitively say this guy is better than that guy, etc.):

1. Willson Contreras, Cubs: +2.4 WAR (trade candidate)
2. Yan Gomes: +1.6 WAR (free agent)
3. Carson Kelly, Diamondbacks: +1.6 WAR (trade candidate)
4. Gary Sanchez, Yankees: +1.6 WAR
5. Mitch Garver, Twins: +1.3 WAR (trade candidate)
6. Manny Pina: +1.3 WAR (free agent)
7. Tucker Barnhart, Tigers: +1.2 WAR (already traded)
8. Several under +1 WAR (including Stallings)

Among the potentially available catchers, Kelly is the best combination of offense and defense (he’s good at both but great at neither) and long-term team control. Dumping Sanchez only to trade prospects for one year of Contreras is not worth the effort. You’re giving up prospects for a not big upgrade with the same exact player type. Garver, Gomes, Pina … blah.

If Contreras is not traded (I think he will be, but it’s not a lock), then there's a chance Barnhart will be the best catcher to change teams this offseason. Gomes and Pina are in their mid-30s and likely to get worse rather than maintain their current play, which isn’t starting caliber to begin with. One of the best (if not the best) available catchers is off the board with Barnhart traded.

Tigers set behind the plate

When I looked at potential trade partners for Sanchez last month, I mentioned the Tigers were among the clubs that made sense given their need behind the plate, and the possibility they would do something to move closer to respectability. They did that by trading for a catcher with one year of control, but not the catcher with one year of control the Yankees have to offer.

The Barnhart trade means there’s one fewer potential landing spot for Sanchez, and there weren’t that many to begin with. The Marlins, maybe the Angels and Mariners, and that’s about it? There’s an entire offseason to go and things can change, so hopefully a few other teams find themselves in need of a catcher. Otherwise the market for Sanchez is one team smaller.

(I guess the Giants could have interest in Sanchez with Buster Posey announcing his retirement earlier this week. Top prospect Joey Bart crushed Triple-A last season and is big league ready defensively though. I assume they’ll just turn the catcher position over to him. That’s what I’d do.)

Setting the market for Sanchez

In the aggregate, Barnhart and Sanchez are similar players, and thus have similar trade value. They both have one season of team control remaining, and consider:

Barnhart 2022 salary: $7.5M
Sanchez 2022 salary: $7.9M (projected)

Barnhart 2021 production: +1.2 WAR (+1.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances)
Sanchez 2021 production: +1.5 WAR (+2.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances)

Barnhart 2022 projection: +1.2 WAR (+1.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances)
Sanchez 2022 projection: +1.6 WAR (+2.3 WAR per 600 plate appearances)

FanGraphs WAR, which I used here, includes pitch-framing, which is Barnhart’s strength. The shape of their production is different (Barnhart is a glove, Sanchez is a bat), but the end result is similar. So are their salaries. Gary’s demonstrated peak is higher, though he’s also been more volatile. What’s consistency worth? What’s it worth when the other guy is an 80 wRC+ hitter?

Given their similarities, the Barnhart trade tells us Sanchez’s trade value isn’t all that high. Quintana, the prospect the Reds received in the Barnhart trade, hit .196/.329/.346 (91 wRC+) as a 23-year-old in Low-A this season. I’ve had a few people tell me he’s a non-prospect, and the Reds basically salary dumped Barnhart to avoid the $500,000 buyout of his club option.

So there is a financial component to consider. The Reds are cheap -- “We just have to make sure that our resources and our payroll are aligned,” GM Nick Krall told Mark Sheldon following the Barnhart trade -- and when saving money is that much of a priority, you’ll take less in return in a trade to make sure you do it. The money was absolutely a factor in the Barnhart trade.

I would hope the Yankees do not dump Sanchez strictly to pinch pennies. Salary dumping Adam Ottavino when your system produces more relievers than roster spots is one thing. It’s another to dump a catcher in a catcher market this terrible. If nothing else, Barnhart tells us the Yankees can’t expect much back in a Sanchez trade given his one year of control (which is what I figured).

3. The Braves win the World Series. For only the second time since the franchise moved to Atlanta in 1966, the Braves are World Series champions. They beat the cheatin’ Astros in six games earlier this week. Did it without Ronald Acuna too. Obviously he’s a cancer who held them back. They should trade him to the Yankees for a real glue guy like Rougned Odor.

“Surreal,” Braves manager and lifer Brian Snitker (he’s been with Atlanta in various capacities since 1977) said when asked how he felt after Game 6. “I spent the whole game not letting myself -- especially when we scored runs -- not letting myself get ahead of things because knowing how quickly things can change. It's really, really good. Really good.”

The Braves did what the Yankees tried to do this year. Both clubs made frequent postseason trips the last few years, kept getting knocked out, then started slowly in 2021. Acuna got hurt on July 10th. The next day the Braves lost, and went into the All-Star break with a 44-45 record. The Yankees were over .500 at the break, but not by much (46-43). Two .500-ish teams.

Both teams were active at the trade deadline, then went on a big second half run that put them in the postseason. The best records in baseball following the deadline:

1. Dodgers: 44-13 (.772)
2. Giants: 43-16 (.729)
3. Braves: 37-19 (.661)
4. Rays: 38-20 (.655)
5. Cardinals: 38-21 (.644)
6. Yankees: 38-22 (.633)

The Yankees won 92 games and had to go on the road in the Wild Card Game because the AL East is brutal. The Braves went 88-73 and won the NL East by 6.5 games because that division is baby soft. Must be nice. Of course, the Braves we saw in the World Series were not an 88-win team. They were closer to that .661 winning percentage (107-win pace) team we saw down the stretch.

Two teams trying to get over the hump after a series of disappointing postseason exits remade their roster at the trade deadline and went on big second half runs. The Yankees got bounced in the Wild Card Game. The Braves won the World Series. Such is life. A few other Braves-related nuggets.

• Atlanta’s three postseason opponents (Brewers, Dodgers, Astros) had a combined .609 winning percentage during the regular season. Only the 2004 Red Sox (.613) had a tougher road among World Series champs in the Wild Card era.
• The Braves did not get over .500 for good until Aug. 8th (!), when they were 57-56. They joined the 1964 Cardinals as the only teams in history to win the World Series after being under .500 at the All-Star break.
• Atlanta did not move into sole possession of first place in the NL East until Aug. 15th. They spent 51 days in first place, by far the fewest among the six division winners (the Brewers were next at 98 days).
• World Series MVP Jorge Soler is the first player ever with three go-ahead homers in the World Series. He out-homered the entire Astros team in the six games (3-2).
• Soler and NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario were trade deadline pickups. The Braves are the first team ever to have two in-season additions win those awards.
• The last eight World Series have been won by eight different teams, the third longest such streak in history (10 straight from 1978-87, nine straight from 1982-90).

If nothing else, the 2021 Braves are a reminder it is a long ass season. I know I needed time to adjust back to 162 games after the 60-game season a year ago. The Braves were so mediocre the first four months of the year, they lost their best player in July, and arguably their best pitcher (Mike Soroka) did not take the mound once. Collapsing after Acuna’s injury would have been understandable. Instead, GM Alex Anthopoulos got them help, and they won a title. Respect.

As for Yankees ties, there are only a few. Reliever Chris Martin was an up and down guy with the Yankees in 2015 before going to Japan, figuring things out, then returning to MLB with the Rangers in 2018. They traded him to the Braves in 2019. Random Yankee Sal Fasano has been with Atlanta as their catching coach since 2018, so that’s cool. He gets a ring.

Then there’s Terrance Gore, who spent two and a half months with Triple-A Scranton in 2019. He hit .164/.324/.255 (64 wRC+) in 69 plate appearances with the RailRiders. The Yankees got Gore in a cash trade with the Royals that July, though they never called him up to serve as their pinch-running specialist in September. The job went to Tyler Wade instead.

Gore was on Atlanta’s World Series roster and he now has three World Series rings (2015 Royals, 2020 Dodgers, 2021 Braves). The guy has zero career World Series at-bats, but he’s been on the active roster for three titles. Spending the summer in Triple-A and October on the bench, and getting a ring and a postseason share is good work if you can get it.

As for the Astros, they deserve no success because they’re a disgrace, and not only because of the sign-stealing. It was the Astros that ushered in the hard tanking era and made it popular to unabashedly treat players like disposable commodities, not people. Plus their culture is gross and members of the front office are misogynistic jerks, to put it mildly.

The Astros lost 416 games from 2011-14 (on purpose) and far too many people gave them a pat on the back for rebuilding The Right Way. Their reward is a tainted title no one outside Houston considers legitimate because they were the epicenter of the worst cheating scandal in a generation. Please enjoy Alex Bregman’s post-sign-stealing decline:

• 2017-19: .289/.391/.533 (150 wRC+)
• 2020-21: .261/.353/.431 (117 wRC+) (after sign-stealing scandal broke)
• 2021 postseason: .217/.304/.300 (65 wRC+) (dropped to seventh in lineup)

George Springer is gone and Carlos Correa will likely follow him out the door soon. The Astros spent a half-decade as an abject embarrassment and the core they tanked to build got them nothing but a tainted championship. They’ll never get a legitimate title. The core is breaking up. Houston has done incalculable damage to the sport and it is in baseball's best interests that they fail.

Congrats the Braves. They have their own issues -- they pioneered the “the team is the centerpiece of our real estate empire” movement, plus there’s the chop -- but their players are genuinely likeable. I mean, how could you hate Freddie Freeman or Ozzie Albies? The Braves did what the Yankees couldn’t and got over the hump after several disappointing postseason exits and a slow start in 2021. A deserving champ, through and through.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Andy Martino reports the Mets recently asked the Yankees permission to interview assistant general manager Jean Afterman for their president of baseball operations job, but she declined. Afterman has repeatedly said she has no desire to run a team -- “Clubs are required to interview diverse and gender diverse candidates, and there’s no fucking way I’m gonna be somebody’s box to check,” she told Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) in 2019 -- and a few years ago she moved back to the West Coast to be closer to family. Running a team remotely seems like it would be very difficult. Either way, Afterman remains and the Mets will continue to look for someone to run their front office  … The Braves are owned by Liberty Media, a publicly traded company, and Maury Brown dove into their third quarter earnings report. Long story short, the team's revenue jumped nearly 300% year over year, and the club went from -$16M in operating income last Q3 to +$30M this Q3. That doesn’t include revenue from their World Series run either (that's Q4). Point is, at least one MLB club (not even a huge market team either) is already back in the black following the short, fan-less pandemic season. Didn't take long, huh? Teams will say they’re still hurting financially, though the Braves just told their stockholders a different story. Don’t believe it when MLB cries poor …And finally, Buster Posey announced his retirement yesterday. He hit .304/.390/.499 (140 wRC+) with 18 home runs this season, so there’s still a lot left in the tank, but Posey says he wants to be with his family. Good for him. Three-time World Series champ, seven-time All-Star, one-time MVP, second best player in baseball during the 2010s …

1. Mike Trout: +73.1 WAR from 2010-19
2. Buster Posey: +52.9 WAR (includes pitch-framing)
3. Joey Votto: +48.0 WAR
4. Andrew McCutchen: +46.4 WAR
5. Robinson Cano: +46.3 WAR

… equals a Hall of Famer for me. Posey’s career is on the short side (only 11 full seasons), but he turns 35 in March. Does he really need to hang around for a few decline years to strengthen his case? I don’t think so. Posey was the best all-around catcher of his generation and there are only 19 catchers in the Hall of Fame anyway. The position is woefully underrepresented. I’ve admired Posey from afar and he’s a Hall of Famer in my book. A franchise player in every way.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Dylan asks: Who is a better fit for the Yankees: Correa or Seager?

Let me start by saying I would happily take either player. We can (and will) nitpick their games and try to figure out which one fits ever so slightly better than the other, when, in the end, they’ll both be great. They both have their strengths and weaknesses like everyone else. They are both just really excellent players though. You pick one and I’ll take the other.

The Yankees need a high contact lefty bat, so Corey Seager fits better in that sense. They also needed a gifted defensive shortstop, so in that sense Carlos Correa is the better fit. Both guys have injury histories. Correa’s had an on and off back issue while Seager had Tommy John surgery a few years ago, and an errant pitch broke his hand this summer.

Correa and Seager are both 27, so they’re going to get massive long-term deals. We’re talking 10 years and $30M+ a year. Sign a player that long and you do so understanding you’ll have to accept ugly years at the end to get the elite years up front, and right now, in 2022, the Yankees need a high impact lefty bat more than anything, making Seager the better fit.

At the same time, your team needs will change so much over the course of a 10-year contract that you might as well just sign the very best player, and not worry about the exact fit because the fit is going to change so much. In that case. Correa’s the guy to sign because he’s a great hitter who will stay at short. Seager’s maybe a year or two away from being a third baseman.

I think there are enough questions about Seager’s defense …

• Seager 2017-21: +3 DRS and -1 OAA
• Correa 2017-21: +53 DRS and +46 OAA

… that he could become a liability at short as soon as 2022. I know the Yankees need a lefty bat badly and there are few lefty bats in this game as good as Seager, but I think Correa’s the better fit because he’s a comparable hitter with much better defense. Don’t prioritize handedness with a contract this huge. Sign the best player and make the roster fit around him, not vice versa.

Dan asks: Which other teams will be in the market for free agent shortstops this offseason? Who do you see being the primary competition with the Yankees for Corey Seager, and how much might they bid for him?

There are five great free agent shortstops this offseason and, weirdly, it’s possible not one of their former teams will look to re-sign them or even bring in a shortstop to replace them. Consider:

Astros (Carlos Correa): They can shift Alex Bregman to shortstop, his natural position, and then look for a third baseman. They don’t absolutely need a shortstop.

Blue Jays (Marcus Semien): Semien played second base. They have Bo Bichette at short and can put Cavan Biggio at second or third, then look for help at the other position.

Dodgers (Corey Seager): Trea Turner can slide right back over to short, and the Dodgers can put former top prospect Gavin Lux at second, which might be his best position.

Mets (Javier Baez): Baez played second base in deference to Francisco Lindor. Robbie Cano’s suspension is over, and they have natural second baseman Jeff McNeil too.

Rockies (Trevor Story): Former top prospect Brendan Rodgers figures to slide over to short after playing second this year. Colorado’s not really a threat to spend big anyway.

Kinda weird there are all these big name free agent shortstops and their former teams may not be desperate to re-sign them, isn’t it? I think Toronto will do what they can to bring Semien back and the Astros and Dodgers will make cursory attempts to re-sign Correa and Seager, maybe the Mets with Baez too, but these don’t seem to be “they’ll go all-out to re-sign him” situations.

There are several big market teams in that group and if, say, the Astros and Dodgers aren’t looking for a shortstop this offseason, the market for these guys may be smaller than you’d expect. Digging through depth charts, these clubs stand out as potential landing spots for the big names:

• Angels: They need pitching more than anything, though they also need a shortstop. You can’t rule them out on a big free agent. I think they’re more likely to go stopgap though.
• Cubs: There are rumblings about a reunion with Baez, who said he wanted to stay with Chicago forever, as well as a potential Seager pursuit. We’ll see.
• Mariners: J.P. Crawford is a legitimate Gold Glove shortstop, but they badly need help at second and now third. They could make it work. Wouldn’t be difficult.
• Marlins: Maybe? I don’t think they’ll spend the money but Correa or Baez in Miami would be outrageously fun. They have pitching. Time to beef up the offense.
• Nationals: They traded Turner and finished the season with literally Alcides Escobar as their everyday shortstop. If they were going to pay a shortstop though, why not Turner?
• Phillies: Didi Gregorius was one of the worst players in baseball this past season and Alec Bohm might move to left field. The left side of the infield is wide open right now.
• Rangers: Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a nice player but he won’t stop them from adding a big name shortstop. Story grew up in Dallas and has been considered a fit for that reason.
• Tigers: Don’t sleep on Detroit. They have basically no money on the books long-term (Miguel Cabrera and that’s it) and shortstop is a need. Correa and A.J. Hinch reunion?
• Twins: Jorge Polanco is a better fit at second base and top prospect Royce Lewis may wind up at third (where he’s playing in the Arizona Fall League) or center field.

To me the Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, and Tigers stand out most as potential landing spots for one of the top free agent shortstops (Hinch has a ton of pull in Detroit and supposedly he loves Starling Marte, for what it’s worth). I’m not 100% sold on the Cubs or Mariners spending, but Seattle definitely should given the season they just had and with the postseason now within reach (and with the Athletics cutting back).

In all likelihood one of these shortstops will wind up somewhere unexpected. Remember when the Tigers signed Prince Fielder even though they had Cabrera at first and Victor Martinez at DH? Like that. Maybe Story goes to San Francisco to play center field or something. I don’t know what the Yankees will bid for Correa or Seager, but anything less than $300M won’t cut it.

Julian asks: The Reds just traded Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers for a 24 year old who hit .186 in Single-A this past season. Could/should the Yankees have made that trade happen?

I am totally cool with passing on Barnhart even though the Tigers gave up nothing to get him. He’s an all-glove/no-bat catcher with a $7.5M price tag, and if the Yankees are going to replace Gary Sanchez, I sure hope they’re aiming higher than that less than 48 hours after the World Series. They already have an all-glove/no-bat catcher (who doesn’t cost $7.5M).

In theory, the Yankees could have acquired Barnhart and kept him in reserve this offseason just in case nothing better comes along. He’s owed $7.5M next year but you don’t have to actually pay him until the season begins. Carry him on the roster a few weeks, see what shakes loose, then decide whether to plow forward with Barnhart or go in a different direction. Easy, right?

That’s not how the real world works though. There are roster ramifications to carrying Barnhart (like tying up a 40-man spot), and who knows what the Collective Bargaining Agreement will bring. Imagine there’s a work stoppage and the owners actually succeed in lowering the luxury tax threshold, and the Yankees are suddenly sitting on two $7M+ catchers? Oy vey.

Barnhart is fine. He’s not good, he’s not bad, he’s fine. And fine isn’t a good enough replacement for Sanchez, who was a top 11 catcher this year according to Baseball Prospectus and their fancy catcher defense stats. I would hope the Yankees set their Gary replacement bar higher than this. Now let this be the end of the Tucker Barnhart discourse on this blog.

Alessandro asks: Any interest in Kyle Seager on a short term deal?

I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t thought about a Seager package deal. Give Corey the Godfather contract and Kyle the more sensible short-term deal. Signing Kyle could be a thing that serves as a tiebreaker for Corey if he’s deciding between two close offers and only one team gives him a chance to play with his brother. I doubt it would be a major factor in his decision though.

Kyle turned 34 earlier this week and he had kind of a weird season. He hit 35 home runs, which is really good, but he also hit .212/.285/.438 (99 wRC+) overall, which is not. The thing is, that’s not far removed from who he was prior to the shortened 2020 season. One of these things is not like the others:

• 2017-19: .236/.304/.436 (99 wRC+) in 1,723 PA
• 2020: .241/.355/.433 (119 wRC+) in 248 PA
• 2021: .212/.285/.438 (99 wRC+) in 670 PA

Seager is a BABIP nightmare. He pulls the ball a ton, so he hits into the shifts often, and he’s an extreme fly ball hitter (career 34.3% grounders) who is hitting more popups with age. Seager had a .226 BABIP this year after having a .252 BABIP in his previous 2,000 plate appearances. This season is not some kinda huge outlier. It’s who he is.

The third base defense is still strong and Seager has long been regarded as a great teammate and clubhouse guy, so he has intangible value. And as a lefty who pulls the ball a ton in the air, yeah, he’d fit well in Yankee Stadium. Can the Yankee Stadium boost get Seager to, say, .240/.310/.450 next year? 35 dingers plus a good glove? Doesn’t seem crazy.

I feel better about Gio Urshela bouncing back than I do DJ LeMahieu or Gleyber Torres because Gio’s contact quality was still quite good in 2021. Right in line with 2019-20. That was not the case with LeMahieu and Torres. Urshela just swung at everything and got himself out too often. Is that fixable? He’s an aggressive hitter, but this year he was overly aggressive.

The Yankees need more lefty bats and they also need to cut down on strikeouts. Seager is on all the strikeout rate increase leaderboards I’ve cited with Urshela, so he wouldn’t help with the strikeout problem, though he would abuse the short porch. In the past, it would be “who cares about the strikeouts, get those short porch dingers.” Now? Not so much. Things must change.

The Yankees already have a pretty good third baseman and I don’t think going from Urshela to Seager to get more left-handed is enough of an upgrade to justify the added cost (Urshela is projected for only $6.2M, plus there’s a strikeout cost). If not having Kyle means Corey won’t sign with the Yankees, I’m okay with it. Go get Correa in that case. (If the Yankees miss out on both, it’s a problem rooted in something deeper than simply not signing Kyle).

Jason asks: How about Carlos Beltran on the coaching staff? Too much bad Astros history?

Personally, I would be okay with it. Beltran was the only Astros player mentioned in MLB’s report detailing the sign-stealing investigation, and he was an ex-player at the time. He had retired and been hired as Mets manager already. MLB blamed it all on Beltran, A.J. Hinch, Alex Cora, and Jeff Luhnow, and gave pretty much everyone else with the Astros a pass.

How do the Yankees feel about it? I don’t know. They’re not happy, obviously. Players and even Brian Cashman have been outspoken about the sign stealing, though Cashman also praised Beltran when asked about his role in the scandal late spring. From Bryan Hoch:

“A lot of the stories I have a hard time believing, in terms of just the person and how he's being portrayed,” Cashman said on Friday. “I'm not saying he didn't do anything wrong. Clearly, obviously, the Commissioner’s report speaks for itself. But in terms of somebody that was forcing people to do this, that and the other thing, I have a hard time buying that. That's not the person that I knew as a player, and it wasn't a person that I knew as our special advisor.”

...

“He might have been clearly wrapped up in something that wasn't good and healthy and was wrong,” Cashman said. “But in terms of being an individual that was forcing people to do things that they didn't want to do, that's not the Carlos Beltran I know at all. He was obviously wrapped up in something that I think if you had a chance to turn the clock back, there'd be different decisions to make. And I think all those people down in Houston would do it differently now.”

Beltran spent two and a half years with the Yankees as a player and he was part of the front office as a special advisor in 2019, so he’s close with Cashman. Close enough to overlook his role in the sign-stealing scandal? Maybe! Beltran is very well-respected in the game. He hasn’t played with many guys on the roster, though I don’t know if that matters.

Assuming the Yankees go with multiple hitting coaches again (that’s pretty standard now), I’d be totally cool with Beltran in that role. The Cora and Hinch backlash blew over quickly. Is anyone really going to make a stink about Beltran? I mean, probably, it is the Yankees, but clearly the sign-stealing is not a dealbreaker. I’d go for it. I’m not sure the Yankees will, but I would. By all accounts Beltran is a brilliant baseball mind and was a rising coaching/managerial star before all this.

Bob asks: With Buster Posey retiring and everyone seeming to think he's a Hall of Famer, does this open the possibility of Jorge Posada and Thurman Munson being reconsidered?

I don’t believe so. This isn’t how the Hall of Fame works anyway. The voters don’t consider the “this guy got in so that guy has to get in” thing. That’s something fans use to debate players, not something the voters consider when filling out their ballots. Based on all the voters I’ve spoken to, they consider players independently rather than stack them up against each other.

Munson had a short career like Posey (for a very different reason, obviously) and he played in a golden age for catchers. His contemporaries in the 1970s included Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk, and Ted Simmons. Four of the greatest catchers ever, basically. Because of that, Munson was never the best catcher in baseball the way Posey was throughout his career.

That said, it’s not Munson’s fault he played when he did. He was a comfortably above average hitter, by all accounts a great defender, he won Rookie of the Year and MVP, and he was a cornerstone player on multiple World Series champions. That all applies to Posey as well, though he has the edge on Munson offensively even after we adjust for era:

• Munson: .292/.346/.410 (116 OPS+) with 113 HR in 5,905 PA
• Posey: .302/.372/.460 (129 OPS+) with 158 HR in 5,607 PA

Posada is on par with those guys offensively (.273/.374/.474 and 121 OPS+) though he was inferior defensively. That’s what kept him out of the Hall of Fame even though he was one of the best offensive catchers of his era. I love Posada and I’m pretty sure I would have voted for him, though I understand the argument he belongs in the Hall of Very Good.

My guess is Munson’s Hall of Fame chances would be much stronger today than they were in his era. At the time, Munson was dinged because his career was short, and because he wasn’t the best catcher in the game when he played. Voters now would be more receptive to the idea that was legitimately great for a decade (and only a decade) and who cares if he was only the third or fourth or fifth best player at his position?

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system has Munson and Posey essentially tied*, meaning their Hall of Fame cases are equally strong based on peak value and career value. Posada lags a bit behind them (though he ranks ahead of several Hall of Famers). If Posey gets in, yes Munson should get in too, though “this guy got in so that guy should get in too” isn’t a great argument.

* Jay is the foremost authority on Hall of Fame analysis and he has Munson as the greatest catcher not in the Hall of Fame (at least until Joe Mauer becomes eligible).

Ultimately, it’s up to the Veterans Committees. Munson spent the maximum 15 years on the BBWAA ballot and topped out at 15.5% of the vote in Year 1. He wasn’t particularly close to the 75% threshold needed for induction. Posada was one and done on the BBWAA ballot. He received only 3.8% of the vote. Posada and Munson are beyond the BBWAA phase of the voting. It’s up to the Veterans Committees.

Munson can be considered for the Hall of Fame again when the Modern Baseball Committee meets next in Dec. 2023 (the pandemic threw the committee schedules out of whack). He has been on the Veterans Committee ballot a few times already and didn’t come close to making it. Munson maxed out at 7.1% of the vote on the old Veterans Committee ballot in 2007 (that was before these eras committees).

Posada can be considered as part of the Today’s Game Committee next winter, though that committee covers players from 1988 to today, and they mostly focus on the early years. They have a backlog of 1990s guys to go through before getting to Posada. He might not even be put up for consideration by the Veterans Committee for another few cycles (or at all seeing how he was one and done on the BBWAA ballot).

Keep in mind the Veterans Committees are made up of former players, managers, and reporters. Not more stat savvy media people like the the current BBWAA. I don’t think Posada has a prayer to get in through the Veterans Committee. Munson might, and maybe Posey’s election will give his case a jolt, but I’m not optimistic. Munson’s gone through this several times already and not been close.

Jonathan asks: Should Brian Sabean get more credit for the Yankees late 90s dynasty core?

Of course. The idea that Gene Michael and Gene Michael alone built the late 1990s dynasty is ridiculous and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the job. It’s general manager. These guys are managers. They have an army of people who work under them, do the grunt work, and make recommendations. A general manager is only as good as the people working for him.

Sabean started with the Yankees as a scout in 1985 and was the team’s scouting director from 1986-89, and their vice president of scouting and player development* from 1990-92. He ran the farm system when they signed Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and a host of others. Sabean left to join the Giants as an assistant general manager in 1993.

* Goes to show how much front offices have changed in 30 years. Sabean was vice president of scouting and player development. These days those are two separate departments (that work together, of course) with their own directors, who have their own assistants and analysts and all that. Back then one person could run both. Seems incomprehensible now.

Brian Cashman joined the Yankees full-time in 1989 and initially worked under Sabean in player development. He moved up to assistant farm director in 1990 and assistant general manager in 1992, where he worked alongside Michael and Bob Watson. Cashman didn’t inherit the dynasty. He was in on the ground floor of the dynasty in player development.

Sabean and Bill Livesey (scouting director from 1991-96) are the two unsung heroes of the late 1990s dynasty. They ran the farm system that produced all the homegrown players who helped win those titles. Cashman, Michael, and Watson of course played a role as well, but they’d be the first to tell you they didn’t do it alone. Sabean is one of many who had a hand in it.

(During the shutdown last year Joel Sherman wrote a good piece about Sabean, Livesey, and others behind the scenes who helped build the dynasty.)

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)