October 26th, 2021: World Series, Britton, Rule 5 Draft

The Dodgers were eliminated over the weekend and that means the 1998-2000 Yankees remain baseball’s last repeat champions. Coincidentally, today is the 21st anniversary of Game 5 of the 2000 World Series. The three-peat is legally old enough to drink. I remember seeing the ball off Mike Piazza’s bat and thinking he just hit a game-tying home run. That was a fun time. Let’s get to today.s thoughts.

1. World Series thoughts. The 2021 World Series begins tonight and a team other than the Yankees has a chance to beat the Braves in the Fall Classic. Atlanta has lost eight straight World Series games (Games 3-6 in 1996 and Games 1-4 in 1999), the third longest World Series losing streak in history. Too bad the Yankees won’t get a chance to extend it.

Maybe I’ll feel differently once the games begin, but right now, I don’t care who wins. It won’t be the Yankees, so what does it matter at this point? I think the Astros will win because that offense is ridiculous, but I also thought the Astros would mop the floor with the Nationals in 2019, and look how that turned out. Weird things happen in short postseason series, man.

Baseball is a copycat league (isn’t every league a copycat league?) and every year around this time we get deep dives into the pennant winners trying to find the magic formula for winning the World Series. There is no magic formula though. Be as good as possible at as many things as possible, stay healthy, and get a little lucky. That’s the formula.

That doesn’t mean we can’t learn a few things from the Astros and Braves, however. For starters, the Astros show the value of contact. The value of quality contact. Some regular season numbers (non-pitchers only to get a better read on National League offenses):

Strikeout rate
1. Astros: 19.3%
2. Blue Jays: 20.0%
3. Nationals: 20.4%
4. Padres: 20.5%
5. Royals: 20.9%
...
15. Braves: 22.7%
...
25. Yankees: 24.4%
(MLB average: 22.6%)

In-Zone Contact Rate
1. Astros: 87.1%
2. Pirates: 86.8%
3. Padres: 86.3%
4. Blue Jays: 86.2%
5. Nationals: 85.7%
…
27. Braves: 83.1%
28. Yankees: 82.6%
(MLB average: 84.3%)

Exit velocity
1. Blue Jays: 90.1 mph
2. Red Sox: 89.6 mph
3. Twins: 89.5 mph
4. Yankees: 89.4 mph
5. Astros: 89.1 mph
6. Dodgers: 88.9 mph
7. Braves: 88.8 mph
(MLB average: 88.1%)

The Astros combine Yankees-caliber exit velocity with the lowest strikeout rate and the highest contact rate on pitches in the zone in baseball. They make more contact than anyone and they hit the ball as hard as just about anyone. The exit velocity this year was a little out of the ordinary. The contact isn’t. Houston’s ranks the last few years:

• 2020: 1st in K%, 1st in in-zone contact, 19th in exit velocity
• 2019: 1st in K%, 1st in in-zone contact, 18th in exit velocity
• 2018: 3rd in K%, 3rd in in-zone contact, 21st in exit velocity
• 2017: 1st in K%, 1st in in-zone contact, 5th in exit velocity

Elephant in the room: the Astros are cheaters. They’re probably still cheating. They haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt. Their methods are unethical. But the results are the results you want, right? You want to rank among the league leaders in contact and exit velocity. The more hard contact, the better. Houston cheated to get there. It doesn’t have to be that way though.

The Astros have gone to the ALCS five straight years and they’re in the World Series for the third time in the last five years. The powerhouse offense has been a constant during that time. They’re cheaters and their accomplishments have been/will be diminished, but the blueprint is valid. Build an offense high on contact and power, and you’ll have a lot of success.

“We’re not as athletic as we’d like to be or as contact-oriented as we’d like to be,” Brian Cashman admitted during his end-of-season press conference. “People talk about our strikeouts, and we strike out too much, and we need more contact, which is true.”

That’s what we can take from the Astros. The Braves? The Braves have shown us how valuable the willingness to add money can be in this era of mass rebuilds, when like a third of the league isn’t even trying to compete. Much has been made about Atlanta's trade deadline outfield overhaul and deservedly so. Well, look what it cost them:

• Adam Duvall: C Alex Jackson and absorbing $3.6M
• Joc Pederson: 1B Bryce Ball and absorbing $4.3M
• Eddie Rosario: IF Pablo Sandoval and absorbing $1.9M
• Jorge Soler: RHRP Kasey Kalich and absorbing $2.6M

That’s $12.4M in remaining 2021 salary plus option buyouts. That’s essentially all it cost to get those four guys. Eating $12.4M. Jackson is a backup catcher, Sandoval is useless (Cleveland released him hours after the trade), and neither Ball nor Kalich rank among their new team’s top 30 prospects according to MLB.com. Those trades were all about the money.

Compare that to what the Yankees did at the deadline. They gave up actual prospects -- not their top prospects, but legitimate prospects -- to get the other team to eat money so they could stay under a nonexistent salary cap. Kevin Alcantara has a chance to be a top 100 prospect in 2022, and the Yankees gave him up to get the Cubs to pay Anthony Rizzo’s salary. What the hell?

This sport is so broken right now that teams will just give you good players as long as you pay their salaries. The Braves had a need in the outfield following Ronald Acuna’s injury and Marcell Ozuna’s arrest on domestic violence charges, and rather than make one big trade, they brought in a village, and really only took on money to do it. There’s a lesson in there, Yankees.

Anyway, I hope we get an entertaining seven-game World Series. The Astros and Braves are really good -- Atlanta had the third best record in baseball behind the Giants and Dodgers after Aug. 1st -- and neither team is perfect. The back of the rotations and the middle of the bullpens worry me, though that applies to every team really. Give me a fun series and I’ll be happy.

2. Britton’s contract. The Yankees will pay Zack Britton $14M to rehab from Tommy John surgery next season. More accurately, they will carry a $14M luxury tax charge while Britton rehabs from Tommy John surgery, because chances are they have insurance on his contract, and aren’t on the hook for the full $14M. Either way, Britton won’t pitch in 2022.

“I felt like the Yankees, (Brian) Cashman, took a shot on me and I want to hold up my end of the bargain,” Britton told Dan Martin last month about possibly returning late next year. “... I wouldn’t mind finishing my career here. So I don’t even want to come back to show other teams I’m still the pitcher I was before. The Yankees put a lot of faith in me and I want to do right by them.”

Britton turns 34 in December, meaning he will be 35 on Opening Day 2023. After next season, he’ll hit free agency as a 35-year-old who did not pitch at all in 2022 and threw 18.1 ineffective innings in 2021. Not exactly the kinda resume that allows a player to cash in, you know? Then again, Britton has made his money. He may just look for the best chance to win next winter.

The Yankees have a lot of respect for Britton and he obviously enjoys being with the team. He said it right there: “I wouldn’t mind finishing my career here.” He also said he wants “to hold up my end of the bargain” and “to do right by them,” meaning fulfilling his contract with the Yankees. Given the mutual respect, could a luxury tax-saving extension be in the cards?

For example, rather than eating that $14M luxury tax charge in 2022, the Yankees could sign Britton to an extension that spreads that money out across multiple years. The Mariners gave Ken Giles two years and $7M last offseason knowing he would miss 2021 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The contract structure:

• 2021: $1M salary and $500,000 signing bonus (rehab year)
• 2022: $5M (healthy year)
• 2023: $9.5M club option ($500,000 buyout)

Giles is younger than Britton (he turned 31 last month) and not as accomplished (though he’s very good when healthy), but this gets us in the ballpark. Sign Britton to a one-year, $5M extension and his $14M luxury tax hit in 2022 becomes a $9.5M luxury tax hit in 2022 and 2023 ($14M plus $5M spread across two years). That’s a good little chunk of savings.

Realistically, is Britton getting more than one year and $5M in 2023? Maybe! We have to see what the new Collective Bargaining Agreement looks like. But like I said, he’s going to be 35 and will have barely pitched the previous two years when he hits free agency. Here are the richest contracts given to relievers age 35+ the last two offseasons:

1. Will Harris, Nationals: 3 years, $24M
2. Craig Stammen, Padres: 2 years, $9M
3. Joe Smith, Astros: 2 years, $8M
4. Sergio Romo, Twins: 1 year, $5M
5. Joakim Soria, Diamondbacks: 1 year, $3.55M

The Harris contract has been a disaster (15 runs in 23.2 innings around injuries the first two years) and those top four contracts were all signed during the 2019-20 offseason, before the pandemic changed the sport’s economics. Hopefully we’ll all be in better shape at this time next year. Point is, can Britton really get more than one year and $5M going into 2023? I dunno.

Britton did not take a discount three years ago but he did say the Yankees were the only team he would sign with to be something other than a closer. Now he’s saying he would like to finish his career here and “I don’t even want to come back to show other teams I’m still the pitcher I was before.” He's all-in on the Yankees. Enough to take a discounted one-year extension to ease the team’s luxury tax burden next season? Doesn’t hurt to ask.

Keep in mind the Yankees would take the risk here, not Britton. They could be committing 2023 payroll to a player who wasn’t healthy in 2021 and won’t be healthy in 2022. They have a lot of money coming off the books after next season though, so giving a relatively small sum to Britton in 2023 to make life a little easier in 2022 is worth considering.

Ultimately, it’s not Britton’s job to help the Yankees stick to their luxury tax plan, but you can see how signing an extension now could appeal to him. He wouldn’t have to spent the next year hoping he doesn’t have any setbacks from his major elbow surgery so he can cash in as a 35-year-old free agent next winter. It would give him peace of mind.

We don’t know what the new CBA will look like, but there’s almost no way the Yankees will be able to avoid paying luxury tax next season. They have too much money on the books already and it would take something drastic (like trading Aaron Judge) to get under. So perhaps all this is moot. Why sacrifice 2023 payroll to lower Britton’s 2022 luxury tax hit when you’re going to be over in 2022 anyway?

A valid question, and one that likely renders this entire exercise moot. It’s just that with the Yankees holding firm on their payroll limits the last few years, and Britton being so open about wanting to remain a Yankee and “do right by them,” a luxury tax-saving extension could be something the team considers. It wouldn’t break the bank in 2023 but it would help in 2022.

3. Rule 5 Draft protection. A little more than one month from now the Yankees and every other team will have to set their 40-man roster for the annual Rule 5 Draft. Generally speaking, high schoolers drafted in 2017, international free agents signed in 2017, and college players drafted in 2018 are Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason.

The Yankees have had 13 players picked in the last five Rule 5 Drafts (no other team has had more than eight players picked) because the farm system is deep in power arms and those guys are always popular in the Rule 5 Draft. Teams are typically looking for a reliever or a platoon bat in the Rule 5 Draft. They’re not expecting the next big star.

Four of those 13 players stuck all year: Rony Garcia (Tigers), Trevor Stephan (Cleveland), Luis Torrens (Padres), and Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox). Whitlock is the only one the Yankees miss, and he slipped through the cracks because of Tommy John surgery and the lost pandemic season. It is what it is. Learn from your mistakes and move on.

The Yankees got a head start on their Rule 5 Draft protection at the trade deadline. They traded six prospects who must be added to the 40-man this offseason: Diego Castillo, Ezequiel Duran, Janson Junk, Glenn Otto, Hoy Jun Park, and Elvis Peguero. There’s no way to keep everyone, so pick and choose your favorites, and trade the others while you can.

Chances are the Yankees will lose a player(s) this Rule 5 Draft because they always lose a player(s) in the Rule 5 Draft, and most likely that player(s) will be returned. Most are. Who’s eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this offseason? Who will be protected and left exposed? Let’s break it all down.

Cabrera, Pereira, and Vasquez

Shortstop Oswaldo Cabrera, outfielder Everson Pereira, and righty Randy Vasquez all enjoyed breakout 2021 seasons, so much so that I wrote about each of them individually in August. Here are their end-of-season stat lines:

• Cabrera: .272/.330/.533 (130 wRC+), 29 HR, 21 SB, 24.7 K%, 8.0 BB% in 514 PA
• Pereira: .303/.398/.686 (178 wRC+), 20 HR, 27.6 K%, 12.7 BB% in 221 PA
• Vasquez: 2.52 ERA (2.97 FIP), 28.6 K%, 8.4 BB%, 56.5 GB% in 107.1 IP

Cabrera spent most of the year with Double-A Somerset (he hit five homers in nine games during a late season cameo with Triple-A Scranton). Pereira started in Extended Spring Training, then climbed from the Florida Complex League to Low-A Tampa to High-A Somerset. Vasquez went from Low-A to High-A to Double-A. All three were statistically incredible.

The Yankees had several middle infielders come out of the lost pandemic season with increased power. Some were traded (Castillo and Park), some remain in the system as top prospects (Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe), and then there’s Cabrera. He hit 29 homers in 118 games this year after hitting 22 homers in the first 410 games of his career.

Cabrera turns 23 in March and he’s been on the prospect radar for some time, though it wasn’t until this year that the tools turned into results. He’s a switch-hitter with power and knowledge of the strike zone, and his defense is good (though not amazing). Trading Castillo and Park while keeping Cabrera is a pretty good indication who the Yankees like most out of that group.

After the season he just had, there’s no chance Cabrera will go unselected in the Rule 5 Draft again. Someone will take a shot on him. There’s no such thing as too much middle infield depth and this is a skill set worth keeping. Cabrera needs to spend more time in Triple-A, though he can be an up-and-down guy in 2022, and perhaps the full-time utility infielder as soon as 2023.

Pereira has been around awhile is still somehow only 20 (he turns 21 in April) and he’s had some of the best tools in the system for years. He’s just been derailed by injuries (including a fluke ankle injury caused by the crappy wall padding in Staten Island) and the pandemic. The strikeouts are high, but the exit velocities are top notch, and Pereira has long been billed as a high baseball IQ guy.

The Yankees have handcuffed themselves a bit in recent years by carrying prospects who aren’t MLB ready on the 40-man roster. Pereira would be more of the same. He played only 27 games in High-A this year, and will likely return there to begin 2022. Best case scenario is Pereira gets to Triple-A late next season and is an MLB option sometime in 2023, likely in the second half.

Pereira’s upside is considerable. He’s also not particularly close to helping the big league team, and his greatest value to the Yankees may be as a trade chip. He was rumored to be involved in early iterations of the Joey Gallo trade, which means other teams want him and/or the Yankees want to move him rather than commit a 40-man spot to him.

Teams are willing to let a Rule 5 Draft kid sit through a disaster season (see: Torres and the Padres) to get that talent in the system. That’s the most likely way the Yankees can lose Pereira in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s not MLB ready and the jump from High-A to MLB is massive. Normally I would say leave him unprotected because he’ll be returned eventually. These days though? Eh.

As for Vasquez, there are parallels to Jonathan Loaisiga here as an largely unheralded kid who missed a bunch of time (Vasquez because of the pandemic and Loaisiga because of injuries) and came back throwing absolute fire. Velocity, spin, the works. Vasquez made only four Double-A starts and his control isn’t MLB ready, but he might be able to out-stuff MLB hitters next year the way Luis Gil did this year.

There seems to be one or two of these big stuff/questionable control guys on the 40-man at all times, and they get cycled through frequently. This could be a “okay, we tried Nick Nelson for two years, time to try the next guy” situation. Loaisiga was a surprise 40-man addition a few years ago because he hadn’t pitched much. Vasquez’s addition won’t be nearly as surprising.

Verdict: Protect all three, though I suspect the Yankees will shop Pereira around a bit prior to the protection deadline. Maybe Vasquez too. He was also rumored to be in early iterations of the Gallo trade. Either there’s interest in him or the Yankees want to move him, or both.

(UPDATE: Turns out Vasquez isn't Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason.)

Protecting Sands

It wasn’t only middle infielders who returned with more power following the lost pandemic season. Longtime organizational catcher Donny Sands did as well. The 25-year-old converted third baseman hit .261/.326/.466 (112 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 380 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. He hit eight (!) home runs in his first 1,073 career plate appearances.

Sands combined those 18 homers with a 15.0% strikeout rate and gosh, that much power with that much contact is exciting, especially at catcher. He’s a bat-first catcher whose defense is fine more than good, but the Yankees have long been willing to sacrifice defense for offense behind the plate. This goes back to the days of Jorge Posada and Mike Stanley.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, Sands is not only Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason, he’s due to become a minor league free agent. Either the Yankees put him on the 40-man roster following the World Series, or he heads out into the market, where some team will give him a 40-man spot because he’s a catcher with power, and because the position is so weak right now.

Put Sands on the 40-man and, at minimum, he’s the up-and-down third catcher during his three minor league option years. And if things go well, he can take over as the backup catcher in three years, when Kyle Higashioka becomes a free agent. That’s exactly what happened with Austin Romine and Higashioka. Romine became a free agent and Higashioka seamlessly stepped in to replace him right as he ran out of options.

Catching is so bad these days and Sands showed so much improvement this year -- again, the guy hit 18 homers in 380 plate appearances at the upper levels with a 15.0% strikeout rate -- that the Yankees have to put him on the 40-man, even though he’s not going to win any Gold Gloves. If anything, keep him and trade him. Can’t just let him go as a free agent.

Verdict: Protect, easily.

What about Breaux, bro?

If you’d have told me before the season Sands would be the must-protect catcher and not Josh Breaux, I would have said … okay, that’s not completely crazy. It’s unexpected but it’s not the most insane thing either. Breaux lived up to his all-power profile this year, hitting .249/.298/.503 (108 wRC+) with 23 homers in 382 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A.

The power is legit, the plate discipline isn’t good (25.9% strikeouts and 6.8% walks this season), and the defense is rough around the edges but slowly improving (Breaux has a cannon arm but it plays down because of his transfer). Had he shown more improvement with his approach or defense, then we could discuss Beaux as a 40-man roster candidate. As it is right now, nah.

Verdict: Do not protect. It’s tough to hide a Rule 5 Draft kid at catcher but not impossible (again, see: Torrens and the Padres), so I don’t think Breaux has much chance of sticking even if he does get picked. And if some team takes him and keeps him all year, fine. I won’t sweat losing him even given the current state of catching. Breaux’s not helping the Yankees anytime soon.

The Ridings situation

At this time last year I didn’t even know Stephen Ridings existed, then come August he was in the Bronx throwing 100 mph. Ridings was with the Yankees as a COVID replacement, so they were able to remove him from the 40-man roster without going through the usual process. Ridings allowed one earned run and struck out seven in five MLB innings.

First things first: Ridings is Rule 5 Draft eligible. He was a 2016 draft pick and he would’ve been Rule 5 Draft eligible last offseason had he been under contract with a team and not working as a substitute chemistry teacher at the time. Secondly, Ridings will be a minor league free agent this winter. The rules are complicated but he qualifies despite not having put in the necessary years.

MLB Rule 9 covers free agent eligibility and, long story short, a minor leaguer who gets released can become a free agent every offseason the rest of his career if he’s not on the 40-man roster. The Royals released Ridings last November, so he qualifies. The Cub Reporter put Rule 9 in something closer to plain English than the rulebook (emphasis mine):

An unsigned minor league player is automatically declared a free-agent at 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series (the deadline is October 15th if the World Series is canceled) if the player has spent all or any part of at least seven separate seasons on a minor league roster (including all or parts of any season spent on Optional Assignment to the minors and/or on a minor league Injured List) and/or if the player has been previously released or non-tendered in his career and his present contract (known as a "second contract" even if it's his third or fourth minor league contract) has expired.

Ridings is on his “second contract” and thus can become a free agent, meaning if the Yankees don’t put him on the 40-man roster within five days of the end of the World Series, he can go out into free agency and shop his services to the other 29 teams. We didn’t see Ridings much this year, but we saw enough to know at least one of those 29 teams will give him a 40-man spot.

In the minors this season Ridings struck out 42 and walked only four in 29 innings. He finished the season on the injured list with an elbow problem, but as far as I know, it was fairly minor and he was throwing bullpen sessions in September. Prior to 2021, Ridings was a dime a dozen hard-thrower with an okay slider and poor control. Now the control took a massive step forward.

My guess is had we not seen Ridings throw those five innings with the Yankees, we wouldn’t think twice about him as a 40-man roster candidate. He would have been like all the other relievers with impressive minor league numbers. Oh wow he touches 100 mph? Big deal, a ton of guys touch 100 mph nowadays. You no longer stand out if you throw hard.

We did see those five big league innings though, and gosh, they were impressive. Ridings is a 6-foot-8 behemoth with big velocity and swagger, and even if he’s the up-and-down 14th guy on a 13-man pitching staff, it’s good to have an arm like that in reserve. Minor league free agency beckons, so the Yankees have to make a decision with Ridings fairly soon.

Verdict: Protect, though I don’t think it’s a stone cold lock. A few years ago the Yankees added Nick Rumbelow to the 40-man roster to prevent him from becoming a minor league free agent, then traded him days later. Maybe they’ll do something similar with Ridings. We like him, but we don’t have room on the 40-man and don’t want to lose him for nothing. That kinda thing.

Sauer a long shot

2017 second rounder Matt Sauer returned from Tommy John surgery this year (he would have returned last summer had the minor league season not been canceled) and wasn’t particularly good, pitching to a 4.69 ERA (4.59 FIP) with 25.9% strikeouts and 9.6% walks in 111.1 innings split between Low-A Tampa and High-A Hudson Valley. Meh.

The good news: Sauer stayed healthy. Made just about every start. The bad news: Sauer’s stuff was kinda blah. During his Low-A stint he threw roughly 85% four-seamers and sliders and:

• Four-seamer: 93.2 mph and 2,229 rpm average (96.1 and 2,459 max)
• Slider: 85.3 mph and 2,548 rpm average (91.0 and 2,879 max)

The slider spin is pretty good, especially compared to the rest of Low-A. The rest doesn’t really stand out though. 93-96 mph fastball with average spin and a mid-80s slider? Once upon a time that made you a closer. Now you’re an up-and-down arm. Sauer turns only 23 in January and it’s worth giving him another year as a starter as he gets further away from elbow reconstruction. A 40-man spot though? Nah.

Verdict: Do not protect. Despite the draft pedigree (No. 54 overall pick and $2.4975M bonus), I don’t think Sauer has much of a chance to get picked in the Rule 5 Draft. There will be pitchers available with similar stuff and measurables who have had success in Double-A and Triple-A. Sauer’s been okay at best in Single-A post-Tommy John surgery.

Marinaccio & Sears

One thing became clear this season: I really underestimated how much players would be able to improve on their own at home last year. “On their own” isn’t entirely correct because they were in regular contact with the team, but it turns out you can accomplish a lot working remotely in this game. Hitters came back with more power and pitchers came back with more velocity.

Righty Ron Marinaccio, a 19th round pick in 2017, was an easy to overlook organizational arm earlier in his career, then he showed up to Spring Training this year throwing 95-97 mph rather than 90-91 mph. He’s always had a good changeup, and the Yankees had him throw it more often this year. 343 pitchers threw at least 60 innings at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021:

Strikeout rate
1. Reid Detmers, Angels: 42.0%
2. Jovani Moran, Twins: 41.8%
3. Ron Marinaccio, Yankees: 39.9%
4. Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles: 39.0%
5. Shane Baz, Rays: 37.9%

Swinging strike rate
1. Ron Marinaccio, Yankees: 20.6%
2. Jovani Moran, Twins: 20.2%
3. Spencer Strider, Braves: 20.0%
4. Reid Detmers, Angels: 18.4%
5. Dietrich Enns, Rays: 17.9% (y’all remember him, right?)

Marinaccio is 26 already and he’s a reliever only, but still, strike out that many hitters and miss that many bats, and teams will notice. Gio Gallegos was a similar “not a lot of prospect hype but insane Triple-A bat-missing numbers” guy, and he’s turned into a pretty good big league reliever. Marinaccio is absolutely on the Rule 5 Draft radar (GIF via Joe Vasile).

JP Sears was my Minor League Comeback Player of the Year and he used last season to a) get healthy, and b) sharpen his slider. He is on those same leaderboards as Marinaccio, albeit in the 20-30 range rather than top five. The Yankees have mostly used Sears as a starter in his career, though all signs (health, stuff, etc.) point to a future in the bullpen, and that’s fine. Relievers are people too.

The Yankees lose a few of these power arm relievers in the Rule 5 Draft each year and they’ve really only gotten burned twice: Whitlock in 2021 and Tommy Kahnle in 2013. Otherwise these guys usually come back (like Nick Green and Jose Mesa Jr.) or are lost and no one really cares (like Stephan and Garcia). That’s the case with most Rule 5 Draft picks.

40-man spots are a finite resource and inevitably the Yankees will have to leave a few relievers exposed. You can’t keep everyone, so the onus is on you to protect the right players, and let other teams have the leftovers. This year, it seems to me Marinaccio and Sears are the most likely candidates to be left exposed and then selected.

Verdict: Do not protect. The Yankees churn out power relievers like crazy and these days you need to do something more than throw in the mid-90s and have a good secondary pitch to stand out. You need fastball movement like Clay Holmes and Jonathan Loaisiga, or changeup depth like Wandy Peralta, etc. Marinaccio and Sears are behind a few others on the depth chart and have the best chance to get picked among Yankees minor leaguers, but sometimes the best way to keep a player is to leave him exposed, then take him back when he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. The 40-man appears too tight to protect these two.

Other notables

OF Anthony Garcia, my preseason No. 30 prospect, had an amazing year, hitting .306/.444/.678 (187 wRC+) with 14 homers in only 39 games split between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Tampa. He also hit a ball 115.8 mph, the second highest max exit velocity tracked in Low-A this year. That said, Garcia had a 32.6% strikeout rate and has 68 plate appearances in full season ball. As noted earlier, teams are willing to let an obviously not MLB ready kid sit through a disaster season to acquire his rights (again, see: Torrens and the Padres), and that’s about the only way Garcia is sticking in the big leagues next year. He’ll be left exposed … OF Trey Amburgey spent some time with the Yankees as a COVID replacement and is a textbook righty platoon corner outfield bat. He hit .276/.337/.475 (113 wRC+) in Triple-A this year with five homers in his first nine games and three homers in his final 62 games. Amburgey is up for minor league free agency and the Yankees won’t add him to the 40-man. He’s best served going to a team with a clearer path to MLB playing time. Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo are two pretty enormous roadblocks … OF Brandon Lockridge has been on the radar a while but doesn’t do enough to profile as anything more than a speed and defense fourth or fifth outfielder. He hit .298/.352/.495 (128 wRC+) in 75 games between High-A and Double-A this season. Lockridge could be a trade candidate prior to the protection deadline. Another team could want him but not with the Rule 5 Draft strings attached, so trade a fringe non-40-man prospect to get him, put him on the 40-man, and stash him in the minors. That kinda thing … RHP Greg Weissert picked up a new slider on Twitter last year and the result was 40 strikeouts but also 22 walks in 36.2 Triple-A innings. RHP Barrett Loseke struck out 91 and walked 31 in 65.2 innings between High-A and Double-A this year. Neither guy will show up on a prospects list but could get Rule 5ed if a team is willing to give them a look as the last guy in the bullpen … RHP Daniel Bies came into the season as a sleeper prospect, then blew out his elbow in Spring Training and had his second career Tommy John surgery. He won’t be added to the 40-man and no team is taking him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Wrapping up

I expect five minor leaguers to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason: Cabrera, Pereira, Sands, Ridings, and Vasquez. Ridings and Sands will be minor league free agents and have to be added to the roster soon after the World Series. The other three are regular old Rule 5 Draft eligibles and don’t have to be added to the 40-man until the protection deadline in a few weeks.

The Yankees currently have 47 players on the 40-man roster and they only need to get down to 38 after the World Series. That won’t be too difficult. Opening the other three spots can wait until the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline in late November but will require a little more work. Expect a flurry of minor roster cleanup moves the next 3-4 weeks. The Rule 5 Draft necessitates it.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Homer Bush. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a player who stole way fewer bases than Michael Kay would lead you to believe. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Born and raised in East St. Louis, Bush was a standout high school football player who set the state records for touchdowns (22) and receiving yards (1,431) in a single season (his records have since been broken). Bush had scholarship opportunities to play football but opted to play baseball, and signed with the Padres as their seventh round draft pick in 1991.

From 1991-97, Bush steadily climbed the minor league ladder and he was enjoying a breakout year with Triple-A Las Vegas in 1996 (.362/.388/.526) when a broken leg ended his season after 32 games. I can’t find confirmation from Bush himself, but apparently his leg was broken when he and a friend were messing around, and the friend hit him in the leg with a pipe. I dunno.

Anyway, Bush returned to Triple-A to begin 1997 and hit .277/.310/.413 in his first 38 games. That January the Padres purchased Hideki Irabu’s rights from the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan and Irabu was not happy, and said he would only play for the Yankees. (Also, other teams were not happy they didn’t get to bid on Irabu, so the posting system was created.)

“I have absolutely no desire to conclude a contract with San Diego,″ Irabu told the Associated Press. ”My first pick is the Yankees. All I can say for now is that I have told this to my agent and that there has been no change in my wishes.″

Padres president Larry Lucchino told the Associated Press: “I’m not surprised, and we’re fully prepared to advance the Padres’ interest no matter who from New York or elsewhere wants to take issue with us. We think that when we have a chance to speak with him, we’ll be able to adjust his perspective. We know what a desirable place San Diego is and how desirable a team the Padres are, so we remain hopeful. Nobody ever said it was going to be easy.″

The Padres were unable to change Irabu’s mind, so, on April 22nd, they traded his rights to the Yankees. The full trade:

• Yankees get: OF Gordie Amerson, IF Homer Bush, two players to be named later
• Padres get: RHP Rafael Medina, RHP Ruben Rivera, $3M in cash

The trade was contingent on the Yankees signing Irabu to a contract, and once the two sides agreed to teams on a four-year, $12.8M contract on May 22nd, Irabu became one of the two players to be named (outfielder Vernon Maxwell was the other). Medina and Rivera were both highly regarded prospects at the time. Kinda amazing the Yankees gave up so much (even though neither player worked out) despite San Diego having little leverage.

“Maybe I'm a little biased from being involved in the union, but I respect the guy for standing up for his rights, the right to play where he wants to play,” David Cone told Murray Chass and the Associated Press. “... It could open up the whole Asian market to the Yankees. And we certainly need the fans, not to mention the pitching depth it gives us."

The then-24-year-old Bush reported to Triple-A Columbus following the trade and hit .247/.308/.327 in 74 games. He was called up to the big leagues for the first time that August, when Luis Sojo went down with an injury and the Yankees needed a backup infielder. Bush made his MLB debut as a pinch-runner on Aug. 16th and got his first hit on Aug. 26th. He went 4-for-11 in 10 MLB games that year.

Despite not making his MLB debut until Aug. 1997, Bush was out of minor league options going into 1998, so he made the Opening Day roster as an extra infielder behind Sojo. The Yankees had a stacked infield that season and they all stayed healthy (Scott Brosius, Derek Jeter, and Chuck Knoblauch all started at least 147 games in the field that season), so Bush rarely played.

In April, Bush appeared in five games, three times as a pinch-runner and twice taking over in the late innings of a blowout. He made his first start on May 3rd, in the team’s 26th game of the season, and he made his second start June 24th, in the 71st game of the season. The Yankees played 81 games before the All-Star break that year and Bush appeared in only 19 of them.

On Aug. 26th, Bush hit his first career homer, a three-run go-ahead shot against Angels righty Steve Sparks. Here’s the video. “The young man wants a bat, but I'm probably going to get him a Derek Jeter or Bernie Williams bat to make it really worth his while,” Bush told Jack Curry about having to make a trade with a fan to get his first home run ball.

Bush did not play often -- the home run earned him a start the next day and it was the only time all year he started back-to-back games -- but when he played, he played very well. He finished the season with a .380/.421/.465 batting line in 78 plate appearances spread across 12 starts and 33 appearances off the bench. He hit the one homer and went 6-for-9 stealing bases.

''I'm using all of this as a learning tool,'' Bush told George Vecsey about being on a historically great team but rarely playing. ''If I can contribute to this team, I can play anywhere in the Major Leagues, whatever the situation happens to be. My stock has gone up. At least, that's how I feel.''

The Yankees of course carried Bush on their 1998 postseason roster and of course he didn’t start a single game. He appeared in five postseason games, all as a pinch-runner:

• ALDS Game 2 vs. TEX: Pinch-ran for Chili Davis at first base with no outs and a two-run lead in the sixth. Bush stole second, but was stranded.
• ALCS Game 2 vs. CLE: Pinch-ran for Tim Raines at first base with no outs in the ninth inning of a tie game. Bush stole second, but was stranded.
• ALCS Game 4 vs. CLE: Pinch-ran for Tino Martinez at second base with no outs and a three-run lead in the ninth. Bush moved to third on a wild pitch, then scored on a Brosius sacrifice fly.
• World Series Game 2 vs. SD: Pinch-ran for Davis at first base with no outs, the bases loaded, and the Yankees up six in the eighth. They did not score in the inning. Womp womp.
• World Series Game 3 vs. SD: Pinch-ran for Davis at first base with two outs and a one-run lead in the seventh. Bush moved to second on a Knoblauch walk, but was stranded.

Five pinch-running appearances, two stolen bases, and one run scored in the postseason. The Yankees didn’t exactly need pinch-running excellence to win the World Series that year, so who really cares. Bush, then a 25-year-old rookie in his first full MLB season, spent the entire season on the active roster and got himself a World Series ring.

"For me, that championship meant so much,” Bush told Adam Weinrib last year. “One, it's out of the way, now I can just go play. Two, I was gonna make more money with a World Series share by almost 100%. But man, just the joy of bringing another title to New York. I just knew it was gonna be the gift that would keep on giving, and man, was I right about that."

All told, Bush was on the Yankees’ active roster for 217 regular season plus postseason games from 1997-98, and in those 217 games he made 13 starts and 47 appearances off the bench. He had only 89 plate appearances. I have no idea how to research this, but I gotta think Bush’s plate appearances to games on the active roster ratio is one of the lowest for a position player in franchise history.

Among those 47 appearances off the bench were 29 pinch-running appearances, and Bush went 8-for-11 stealing bases. I don’t want to pick on Kay here, but the way he talks about Bush would lead you to believe the guy was some sorta pinch-running dynamo who changed the game every time he came out of the dugout. That wasn’t really the case.

Anyway, the Yankees sent Bush to the AL East rival Blue Jays in the Roger Clemens trade on Feb. 18th, 1999. Bush, David Wells, and Graeme Lloyd for Clemens. “We've got some things to think about,” Brian Cashman told Buster Olney when asked how the club would replace Bush as their speed threat off the bench with Spring Training right around the corner.

The Blue Jays used Bush as their starting second baseman in 1999 and he was great! He hit .320/.353/.421 with 26 doubles and 32 stolen bases, and it looked like he was about to begin a nice run as an everyday player. Alas, Bush slipped to .215/.271/.253 in 2000, and by May 2002, he’d fallen so far out of the picture that Toronto released him.

Bush finished 2002 with the Marlins, did not play in 2003 because of hip problems, then returned to the Yankees on a minor league deal in Dec. 2003. The Alfonso Soriano for Alex Rodriguez trade opened playing time at second base, though almost all of it went to Miguel Cairo and random Yankee Enrique Wilson. They started 160 of 162 regular season games.

Bush spent most of 2004 in Triple-A (.291/.327/.380) but did join the big league team for a brief spell in May and June. He played in nine games, started two, and went 0-for-7 at the plate with one stolen base in six appearances as a pinch-runner. Bush appeared in his final MLB game on June 8th, when he pinch-ran for Jason Giambi.

The Yankees brought Bush to Spring Training as a non-roster player in 2005, but the hip problems forced him to retire. He appeared in 409 big league games across parts of seven seasons, and retired as a .285/.324/.358 hitter. Following his playing career, Bush jumped into the finance world with Merrill Lynch, and he is involved with Rangers youth programs near his home in Texas. He’s a regular at Old Timers’ Day too.

"(MLB’s Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities program) is near and dear to my heart," Bush told T.R. Sullivan about his work with Texas in 2016. "I'd love to work with inner-city kids for the rest of my days of coaching, because I feel however the process is running, it's not making it feasible for inner-city kids to play the game."

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Craig Mish reports Marlins third base coach Trey Hillman has left the team to pursue other opportunities. Hillman coached and managed in the Yankees farm system from 1990-2001 and he was a specialist assistant to Brian Cashman in 2014. The two are very close and Hillman has done everything there is to do in this game. Scout, coach, manage, front office, minors, Majors, Japan, Korea, you name it. It’s an impressive resume. The Yankees have a few vacant coaching spots and if Cashman wants an experienced confidant in the dugout, it’s hard to think of a better candidate than Hillman. Making Hillman the bench coach and moving Carlos Mendoza to first or third base coach seems like a thing that could happen … And finally, MLB announced the 2021 Silver Slugger finalists yesterday and lol they are a trip. Some positions have three finalists, others have four, guys are out of position (Justin Turner is at a finalist at second base despite playing one inning there since 2015 (and that inning was in 2019)), it's incredible. Aaron Judge is an outfield finalist (obviously), Giancarlo Stanton is a DH finalist (duh), and Gary Sanchez is a catcher finalist (second highest wRC+ among American League catchers with 400 plate appearances!). Then Joey Gallo is a DH finalist? He played 14 games at DH in 2021. And DJ LeMahieu is a second base finalist? Did we watch the same LeMahieu this year? Coaches and managers vote on Silver Sluggers and call me crazy, but I get the sense they don’t put much thought into this.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)