October 22nd, 2021: LeMahieu, Taillon, Hicks, Shortstop, Coaches, Mailbag

On this date in 1996, the Yankees won Game 3 of the World Series thanks to David Cone, Bernie Williams, and Joe Torre pulling Mariano Rivera so Graeme Lloyd could face Fred McGriff and Ryan Klesko. It was the first of four straight wins to clinch the first championship of my lifetime, and the 1996 Yankees will forever have a special place in my heart because of it. It’s amazing the Braves had a 2-0 series lead, a Hall of Fame rotation, young Andruw and Chipper Jones, and yet it was the team in the other dugout that was about to start a dynasty. Pretty great. Anyway, I went a bit heavy on mailbag questions today because I said all I have to say about Aaron Boone returning earlier this week. Let’s get to it.

1. Cashman’s press conference. Earlier this week Brian Cashman held a dual purpose Aaron Boone reintroduction/state of the Yankees press conference, and honestly, once you’ve heard one of these end-of-season press conferences, you’ve heard them all. Cashman answers each question with five minutes of rambling that boils down to “we’ll see.” Here’s the video.

“This was a year that I would say might be my toughest,” Cashman said. “It was somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde. At times it looked unstoppable, but many other times unwatchable because of the streakiness and lack of consistency. Trying to solve that on the run, we were able to get to a Wild Card berth and a 92-win season, but certainly that’s not what we’re about.”

I’ve seen enough of these to know Cashman never says anything interesting or declarative, but this year’s was too status quo-y for me. The Yankees have underperformed two years running and there is A LOT of anger in the fan base. They need to do better than the status quo. I’m not sure anyone in the organization gets it, and if they do, they certainly aren’t acknowledging it.

Cashman said he has not received a budget for next season which a) is a thing he says every year around this time, and b) is understandable with the Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire. Every team in the league will wait to see the new CBA terms before finalizing their 2022 budget. This isn’t a Yankees problem. It’s an MLB and MLBPA problem.

Anyway, Cashman’s press conference did bring some actual news and otherwise noteworthy statements I want to touch on here. Let’s dive in.

LeMahieu’s surgery

As expected, DJ LeMahieu had surgery to repair his sports hernia soon after the season. He had surgery last Tuesday and Cashman said it comes with an eight-week recovery. There is no such thing as a “minor” surgery, though repairing a sports hernia is pretty routine. LeMahieu should be ready to go well in advance of Spring Training.

“I think we have an idea now why DJ LeMahieu had the year he had,” Cashman said. “He was battling a core injury that he’s gotten surgically repaired. It’s an eight-week recovery ... LeMahieu was not LeMahieu because of an injury."

I would love to be able to attribute LeMahieu’s down season to the sports hernia. I’m sure it was a factor, though I can’t imagine it is the lone cause. My understanding is hernias are miserable, and they make the most basic movements hurt. Playing a full 162 games with one seems impossible, and LeMahieu’s issues were evident long before he started missing games down the stretch.

LeMahieu didn’t hit the ball hard at all early in the season, began to look more like himself in the middle of the summer, then just cratered. He had an .077 ISO in April and May, a .117 ISO from July through August, and then a .053 ISO in September. It fits the timetable of when the hernia became a known issue and LeMahieu started missing games.

As is often the case, it’s likely LeMahieu’s down season was the product of multiple things. The sports hernia, the deadened ball, age, maybe a little bad luck (.315 wOBA vs. .337 xwOBA), etc. Chances are we’ll never see MVP candidate LeMahieu again, but hopefully he’ll bounce back a bit next year, somewhere in the 115 wRC+ range rather than league average like this year.

Taillon’s surgery

Also as expected, Jameson Taillon will have surgery to repair the tendon in his right ankle. He’s going under the knife next Thursday. Taillon acknowledged he would need surgery late in the season and it comes with a five-month recovery, putting him on track to return in late March. Cashman said that’s when Taillon will be “fully operational.”

“Jameson Taillon is going to have surgery on October 28th,” Cashman said. “The recovery time will be five months until he’s back to pitching in games. Obviously there’s throwing programs and rehabs and stuff in-between, towards the end of that. The expectation is that by five months he’ll be fully operational, back to where he would have been prior to the surgery.”

First, Taillon made two starts on the ankle, including throwing 3.1 shutout innings (on a limited pitch count) in Game 162 when the Yankees were trying to secure a postseason spot. Respect. It was an up and down and occasionally frustrating season for Taillon overall, but that dude is a gamer. LeMahieu too. Playing hurt isn’t always the smartest thing but I respect it.

Second, I’m not sure why they’re waiting until next Thursday (23 days after the Yankees played their final game) to have the surgery, but there’s always a good reason for this. They may have to wait for the swelling to subside or something like that. I know these delays can be confusing but there’s always a reason. They don’t put these things off just because.

And third, the five-month timetable suggests Taillon will miss the start of the next season. I’m not sure what Cashman meant when he said Taillon will be “fully operational” after five months, but being ready for Opening Day would require a mostly normal Spring Training, and it doesn't sound like that’ll happen. Besides, when’s the last time a Yankee returned when the team said he would?

In all seriousness, anytime there’s a major surgery with a long recovery, you have to anticipate delays and added caution. If Taillon can’t return until April or even May, then so be it. The Yankees know he may not return until after Opening Day and have an entire offseason to plan for it. The current 2022 rotation depth chart looks like this:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Jordan Montgomery
3. RHP Luis Severino (39.1 innings since 2018, including rehab stints)
4. RHP Jameson Taillon (likely to miss start of the season with ankle surgery)
5. RHP Domingo German
6. LHP Nestor Cortes
7. RHP Deivi Garcia? RHP Luis Gil? RHP Mike King? RHP Clarke Schmidt?

The Yankees had room to add a starter even before Taillon’s surgery, and his recovery makes adding a starter a priority. Nestor’s the man, though I’d rather not go into the season with him and German and Severino in the rotation. Lotta uncertainty there. Too much for my liking. A veteran innings guy would be nice, and I don’t mean a lottery ticket like Corey Kluber.

Hicks’ recovery

Aaron Hicks had surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist in late May and the team never gave a timetable for his return. They only called it potentially season-ending, and of course it was. It’s a major procedure and returning in September or even October was always a long shot. Cashman said Hicks is doing well and may even play winter ball.

“Aaron Hicks is finishing off recovery from his in-season wrist surgery and I know he’s looking -- or hoping -- to play winter ball,” Cashman said. “But regardless of whether he does or doesn’t, this should be resolved by late November if not December either way.”

COVID threw a wrench into the schedule last year but winter ball is usually going on somewhere between October and January. Hicks played winter ball in Venezuela twice earlier in his career, though MLB banned players from the Venezuelan Winter League as part of the government’s economic sanctions in 2019, plus they don’t like sending players there for safety reasons.

If Hicks is able to play winter ball, he’ll likely go to Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic. We’ll see. I did think it was interesting Cashman specifically mentioned center field as a position the team will evaluate this offseason, and possibly make changes. Hicks has four years and $41M left on his contract, though he’s played only 145 of 384 games since 2019, or 38%.

Four years and $41M is not immovable and I’m sure we’ll spend time cooking up bad contract for bad contract trades the next few weeks. Wil Myers plus Drew Pomeranz is $37M in actual salary from 2022-23, for example. The Padres would be able to spread that out across four years and the Yankees would load it upfront in 2022 (a year they’ll have to run a big payroll no matter what), and clear 2024-25 payroll.

Point is, the Yankees have to look into upgrading center field this winter, because even if Hicks stays healthy, he’s now 32, and center field is a young man’s position. Playing big Aaron Judge or 38-year-old Brett Gardner in center regularly can’t be Plan B. With any luck, Hicks will stay healthy and produce, but the Yankees must assume that won’t be the case.

What’s next at shortstop?

Cashman typically hedges a ton during these end-of-season press conferences (“we’ll look into everything,” “we’ll be open-minded,” etc.) though he said definitively the Yankees need to solve the shortstop position this winter. It’s not often he comes out and says yes, this is something we need to do. There was no hedging and no need to read between the lines.

“Our belief was that we’d have a good player at that position in Gleyber Torres going into the 2021 season, but it didn’t play out the way we’d hoped,” Cashman said. “I would say given that circumstance, without question as I enter ’22 I need to obviously upgrade that position from a defensive standpoint. Bottom line, shortstop is an area of need.”

This is not a shock, obviously. The Yankees took the drastic step of changing Gleyber’s position in-season, and we know they pursued Trevor Story (and asked about Andrelton Simmons) prior to the trade deadline. Gio Urshela is a much better fit at third than short, and the team’s other internal shortstop candidates (Tyler Wade, Andrew Velazquez, etc.) ain’t gonna cut it.

Maybe I’m just jaded but Cashman’s “I need to obviously upgrade that position from a defensive standpoint” line worries me. I mean, yes, the Yankees need to improve the defense. Of course they do. But I really hope they’re not planning to punt offense at shortstop. The lineup is not good enough to punt offense at any position, especially if/once they move on from Gary Sanchez.

More than a few no bat/all glove stopgap shortstop types will be available this offseason. Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, Simmons, etc. You can find defense at the position pretty easily. Offense and defense though? That’s not easy to find, and my broken brain worries Cashman specifically saying he needs to improve the position defensively means a cheap stopgap is coming. Sigh.

On the coaching staff

The Yankees parted ways with third base coach Phil Nevin and hitting coaches Marcus Thames and P.J. Pilittere last week -- their contracts were up, so they technically weren't “fired” -- and as Cashman and Aaron Boone discussed those decisions earlier this week, two things stood out. First, Boone acknowledged those decisions came from above. They weren’t his call.

“I’m always included in the process,” Boone said. “Not a lot of say in the decisions that came down, but in terms of putting a coaching staff together, that’s always something I have a hand in. I think my opinion is valued. So yeah, we’ve got some big shoes to fill and some big spots in our staff. We’ve got some important decisions in front of us.”

Being included in the process and having a say in a process are two very different things, and it sure sounds like the decision to replace Nevin, Thames, and Pilittere was made above Boone’s head. The front office said this is what we’re doing, and if you don’t like it, we’ll find someone who does. That won’t help Boone’s credibility with the “he’s a puppet for the front office” crowd.

Of course, this is how every team operates these days. The manager is just an extension of the front office, and if the two aren’t in lockstep, the manager is going to lose out. The Cardinals cut bait with manager Mike Shildt for that reason last week. Shildt apparently was not onboard with the club’s shift toward analytics, so St. Louis will bring in a manager who is. That's the way it goes these days.

And second, Cashman said the decision to replace Nevin, Thames, and Pilittere was made so the Yankees could “reinvest” in their coaching staff. “Reinvest” is a weird word, no? It almost sounds like Cashman is saying “we can lead the league in runners thrown out at the plate and hitting into double players with cheaper coaches.” Very unusual to talk about coaches that way.

Thames was on Sweeny Murti’s podcast last week and he mentioned there might be a bit of a disconnect between the ways the organization’s hitting philosophies are being implemented at the Major League level and in the minors. Here’s what Thames said:

“I don’t think the information -- I think we had a really, really good connection with our analysts and through the players -- I think some drill stuff that maybe some guys are doing down in the minor leagues that we weren’t quite doing at the Major League level.”

Hmmm. In the most basic terms, the organization’s hitting philosophy is “hit strikes hard.” I think anyone who’s ever watched like 12 seconds of baseball can agree that’s smart. A one size fits all approach never works because players have different skill sets (Aaron Judge vs. Tyler Wade, for example), but hitting at its core is “hit strikes hard.” That’s what you want.

That’s the philosophy and how the Yankees go about developing those skills is another matter, and frankly, based on the year the farm system just had, the player development staff is nailing it. So many position player prospects had breakout years! Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, Hoy Jun Park, Oswaldo Cabrera, etc. At the MLB level? Not so much. Lots of guys took steps back.

A few years ago the Yankees overhauled the player development staff and put Dillon Lawson in charge of hitting development. Similar to pitching coach Matt Blake, Lawson understands the numbers and how to use them, and the results speak for themselves in the minors. In Lawson’s first “normal” minor league season, hitters throughout the system exploded.

Given the trends in the organization and really throughout the game, I expect the Yankees to seek out the hitting version of Blake to replace Thames (and Pilittere). I’m not quite sure what they’ll do at third base coach, but that’s less important than the hitting coach. The Yankees have to get the offense and several individual players back on track next year.

Indications are Boone won’t have much say in who winds up on his coaching staff and Cashman using the word “reinvest” to describe the decision to part with three coaches is just weird. Bottom line, the coaching changes were warranted. Now it’s just a matter of finding the hitting version of Blake, and translating Lawson’s development success in Major League results.

2. Willits steps down. So long, Reggie Willits. Earlier this week the Yankees first base coach stepped down to take a volunteer coaching position with the University of Oklahoma, his alma mater. His sons Jaxon and Eli are committed to the Sooners, though Jaxon doesn’t graduate high school until next year and Eli not until 2026. Still, dad will be waiting with the baseball team.

“I want to thank Brian Cashman, Aaron Boone and the Steinbrenner family for the opportunity to work for such a world-class organization,” Willits said in a statement. “I’ve cherished my time with the Yankees and I’ve grown professionally and personally because of the bonds that have I’ve formed with so many players, coaches and staff. It’s been a challenging personal decision to make. I’m leaving a team and organization I’ve loved being a part of, but I’m returning home to be closer to my family and to work for a program I have deep ties to and great respect for.”

Willits’ contract runs through December and he will remain with the Yankees until then, doing whatever it is first base coaches do in the offseason. He first joined the Yankees as their minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator in 2015, and he joined the big league staff as first base coach when Boone was hired. Willits was also the team’s outfield coach and de facto baserunning instructor.

I don’t have a whole lot to say about Willits leaving the Yankees. He’s the first base coach. No one even knows what those guys do other time the pitcher and try to decipher his pickup move. Willits was the baserunning instructor and the Yankees run the bases like someone unplugged the controller, so I guess hooray for a new baserunning coach?

Five members of the 2021 coaching staff remain: Boone, bench coach Carlos Mendoza, pitching coach Matt Blake, catching coach Tanner Swanson, and bullpen coach Mike Harkey. The Yankees need two base coaches and at least one (likely two) hitting coaches. Maybe they move Mendoza to first or third base and hire a new bench coach. A veteran bench coach would be smart, but replacing Boone would've been smart too, and that didn’t happen.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Stephen asks: What do you think the future holds for Gio Urshela? Cashman's comments at the press conference basically confirmed that the team is going to pick up a new SS and stick with Torres at 2B. Assuming they sign a new 1B (or bring Rizzo back) and LeMahieu stays at third, where does that leave Gio? Do you think he's going on the trading block or would you rather keep him around as a super-utility guy around the infield? If he is traded, what do you see as a reasonable landing spot/return?

I think Urshela is pretty safe and will be the starting third baseman next year. Like a lot of others, he took a step back offensively this season (.267/.301/.419 and 96 wRC+), though his under the hood numbers (exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate) were just about in line with 2019-20. DJ LeMahieu’s and Gleyber Torres’ were not. The quality of their contact suffered.

Gio’s contact didn’t suffer. He just made less of it. He grew really undisciplined, particularly late in the season. 132 players batted at least 150 times during the shortened 2020 season and 400 times in 2021. Here are some of the biggest year-to-year changes:

Strikeout rate
1. Kyle Seager: +10.7% (13.3% in 2020 to 24.0% in 2021)
2. Gio Urshela: +10.3% (14.4% to 24.7%)
3. Jackie Bradley Jr.: +8.7% (22.1% to 30.8%)
4. Anthony Santander: +7.9% (15.2% to 23.1%)
5. Alec Bohm: +6.6% (20.0% to 26.6%)

Chase rate

1. Jose Iglesias: +9.3% (37.7% in 2020 to 46.9% in 2021)
2. Gio Urshela: +9.1% (30.8% to 39.9%)
3. Kyle Seager: +9.0% (23.9% to 33.0%)
4. Carlos Santana: +7.6% (18.9% to 26.5%)
5. Brandon Lowe: +7.0% (26.8% to 33.8%)

I feel better about Urshela rediscovering some semblance of plate discipline next year than I do LeMahieu or Torres rediscovering their power stroke in the deadened ball era. Maybe I’m wrong. Hope I am, really. Point is, Urshela’s contact was still really good in 2021. He hit the ball like he did in 2019 and 2020, he just didn’t hit the ball as often.

I think Urshela is safe because the contact quality is good, he gives you coverage at third and short, and he’s affordable. Keep Gio and push LeMahieu into a super utility role, the role the Yankees originally signed him to fill in 2019. You know how it goes. It looks like a guy will get squeezed out of the lineup, then he gets 500 plate appearances because of injuries.

As for a potential trade, third base is stacked around the league right now, though a few teams stand out as possible trade partners:

• Astros: They’ll need a third baseman if Carlos Correa leaves and they move Alex Bregman to shortstop, his natural position.
• Athletics: Matt Chapman is projected to make $9.5M through arbitration and that’s usually when the A’s trade their guys. Gio would be a cheap(er) replacement.
• Mariners: They’re likely to decline Kyle Seager’s $20M club option, though Ty France could move to third if they insist on making Evan White a thing at first base.
• Marlins: Brian Anderson had major shoulder surgery last month and there’s some belief he is best suited for the outfield anyway. Plus the Marlins love ex-Yankees.
• Nationals: Not quite sure what direction they’re heading next year (rebuild? reload?). Third base is an obvious area of need though.
• Phillies: Good to great chance Alec Bohm winds up in left field long-term. The Phillies are a sneaky excellent fit for Urshela.
• Rangers: Third base was a black hole this year, but top prospect Josh Jung should arrive next summer, and they probably don’t want to block him.

I don’t think anyone sees Urshela as a candidate to play shortstop full-time, but all it takes is one team to believe in him, and that could open other trade possibilities. Then again, the free agent market is flush with shortstops, including inexpensive stopgap types if you’re unable or unwilling to spend on the big names.

Gio has two years of team control remaining, and three years ago 1.5 years of Jonathan Schoop fetched 2.5 years of a bench guy (Jonathan Villar), a fading top 10 team prospect (Luis Ortiz), and a non-top-30 team prospect (Jean Carmona). That seems like a decent enough benchmark for an Urshela trade. But yeah, I think he stays. I think the Yankees believe they have a third baseman, and will focus on other parts of the roster this winter.

Thomas asks: Hear me out on this one, why not sign Seager and Correa, put Seager at third, flip Torres and/or Urshela, and then let Judge walk after 2022? Realistically, Judge and Stanton both being on long term contracts is going to become a problem sooner than later, right? Eventually, Judge is going to have to DH or play first. So why not allocate those $$ towards a star at a position of greater need, which keeps the team going all-in for 2022. Judge and Seager are both projected around 4 WAR in 2023 per the ZIPS forecasts, though Seager is on the higher end of that projection, and is two years younger. The payroll would obviously be insane in 2022, but not having to worry about committing to Judge long term, while having an excellent player to replace him at a harder to fill position might be worth it - right?

You’re speaking my language, Thomas. Sign Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, and sign Aaron Judge as well. And Max Scherzer too. That’ll at least be a short-term deal. Sign them all and stop pretending you can’t afford to raise payroll beyond 2005 levels (not even adjusted for inflation!) after opening a new ballpark and with the mother of all regional sports networks.

Realistically, the Yankees probably have only one more $25M+ a year contract in them, so the question is who gets it: Judge or literally anyone else? Judge is a homegrown superstar and the Yankees should always keep those players. He also turns 30 in April, has an injury history, and we have no idea how a player that size will age because there’s never been a player that size (at least not that successful and this athletic).

Giving that one last big contract to Correa or Seager rather than Judge is not just reasonable, it’s the smart thing to do, right? They’re both several years younger, they play a more premium position, and they’re just as good offensively as Judge. It’s much easier to find a quality corner outfielder than a quality shortstop. Correa’s and Seager’s best years may still be ahead of them.

Thomas’ question is not which one of the three though. It’s two of the three. Sign both Correa and Seager, then let Judge walk, could easily be sign one of Correa or Seager, and keep Judge. In that case, yeah, I’d still take the 20-something infielders over the corner outfielder who will turn 31 less than a month into his free agent contract. The shortstops will cost you more, but you’re getting peak years with those deals. Judge’s contract will be heavy on decline years.

Sign Correa and Seager, have all three players in 2022 …

1. 2B Gleyber Torres
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 3B Corey Seager
4. SS Carlos Correa
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. LF Joey Gallo
7. 1B who
8. CF the hell
9. C cares

… then let Judge leave and take the draft pick after the season isn’t an insane strategy. It’s the smart way to go if you have these three players and only two big contracts to give out, really. Add a few high-dollar one-year deals (Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard on a prove yourself contract, etc.) and blow it out in 2022, then get payroll back in order in 2023, when there’s a ton of money coming off the books.

I’m not sold on the Yankees giving out another monster contract at this point, and if they do, I think their priority would be Judge, because he’s the homegrown guy and because his age and injury history means his monster contract will likely be several years and tens of millions less monster-y than Correa’s and Seager’s. I hope I’m wrong because Correa and (less so because he’ll be a third baseman soon) Seager are just perfect for their needs.

C.J. asks: Do you think Eddie Rosario could be a fit for the Yankees? It seems like the Yankees wouldn’t have interest in him because he’s a low OBP guy, but they could desperately use a lefty hitter with power and an above-average hit tool. Could he possibly replace Gardner?

Rosario’s had a great postseason (at the plate anyway, not so much on the bases) and he’s a known quantity at this point. He’s going to hit .265-ish and pop 20-25 homers with the deadened ball and a full season’s worth of plate appearances. He rarely walks, hence the career .309 OBP, though Rosario also has a 14.7% strikeout rate the last three years, and that’s great.

(The TBS broadcast keeps calling Rosario one of the fastest players in baseball but that is nowhere near correct. I have no idea why they keep mentioning it. I saw someone say they must be confusing him with Amed Rosario, and yeah, that sounds about right. Eddie's not slow, but he's not a burner. All the Statcast metrics have him with average-ish speed.)

The low OBP is a bit of an issue (not making outs never goes out of style), though Rosario is a lefty hitter who pulls the ball in the air a ton. Over the last three years roughly one-quarter of his batted balls have been pulled in the air, which is on par with lefty power guys like Joey Gallo and Matt Olson. The most pulled non-grounders among lefties since 2019:

1. Matt Olson: 237
2. Eddie Rosario: 230
3. Jose Ramirez: 222 (as a lefty only)
4. Max Kepler: 218
5. Cody Bellinger: 210

Rosario doesn’t walk or strike out much, which means a lot of balls in play, and given how much this guy pulls the ball in the air, he could be a perfect match for the short porch. His exit velocity is good rather than elite, though you needn’t hit the ball 110 mph every time to take advantage of right field in the Bronx. On paper, Rosario fits the ballpark very well.

The potential issue with Rosario is he’s a poor defender according to both the stats and the eye test. You can’t play him in center field in anything more than an emergency (he’s played only 14.1 innings in center since 2017), so he can’t replace Brett Gardner in that sense. The Yankees would have to trade Gallo (or Aaron Judge) to make room for Rosario.

I really like the idea of adding a low strikeout lefty hitter who pulls the ball in the air as often as Rosario, and he’ll probably be a one-year deal guy too, so he won’t cost an arm and a leg. The low OBP stinks, though you take the good with the bad. Short of trading Gallo (Judge isn’t going anywhere), Rosario doesn’t fit the roster. The Yankees are locked into their corner outfielders.

Bill asks: Bryan Reynolds would be the perfect fit for the team. If they're planning on adding a SS in FA would a package of Volpe + get the job done?

Yes, Reynolds really would be a perfect fit. Switch-hitting center fielder with power who doesn’t strike out much and walks plenty, and is a good base runner too. Reynolds hit .302/.390/.522 (142 wRC+) with 24 homers this year and it was a 142 wRC+ against righties and a 142 wRC+ against lefties. Add in an 18.4% strikeout rate, an 11.6% walk rate, good underlying numbers …

… and good center field defense, and you have a bona fide star. The Pirates put Reynolds in center out of necessity this season and he was way better out there than expected. He was seen more as a left fielder long-term earlier in his career, but the eye test and the numbers say he was at least average in center, if not better.

For all intents and purposes, Reynolds is a better version of the player Aaron Hicks was a few years ago, and a better version of the player the Yankees hoped Hicks would continue to be when they signed him long-term. That hasn’t been the case mostly due to injuries. Reynolds turns 27 in January and he will remain under control through 2025. He’s in his prime, he’s excellent, and he’s a long-term add. He’s perfect.

If you’re going to trade Anthony Volpe, this is the kind of player you trade him for. Carlos Correa or Corey Seager would make Volpe expendable (the Yankees would still have Oswald Peraza as a top shortstop prospect too), so as much as it would hurt to give him up, you’re giving him up to get a really good player who can be a cornerstone type alongside Correa or Seager.

I think the obvious trade benchmark is Christian Yelich. It’s not apples to apples because Yelich then was a year younger than Reynolds now, plus he was signed for four years with a club option for a fifth, but I think we’re in the ballpark. Two young outfielders who are already very good with a chance to be even better. The Yelich trade package:

• OF Lewis Brinson: Top 20 global prospect
• OF Monte Harrison: Top 75 global prospect
• IF Isan Diaz: Top 5 team prospect
• RHP Jordan Yamamoto: Non-top-30 team prospect

The trade has worked out horribly for the Marlins, but at the time, it was a significant haul. Volpe is the Brinson equivalent, and maybe you don’t need a second top 100 guy since it’s four years of Reynolds vs. five years of Yelich. Does Luis Gil and one of Luis Medina, Trey Sweeney, or Austin Wells work? Then add in a lottery ticket arm for the fourth piece?

The Yankees would have to consider that. Volpe’s great, but Reynolds now is what we hope Volpe can be in the future, albeit at a different position. And if you’re signing Correa or Seager (and still have Peraza in the system), shortstop isn’t a need. Center field is. This is the kinda trade you make if you trade Volpe. Trade him for an in-his-prime All-Star with many years of control.

The Pirates are awful and still relatively early in their rebuild, and for the sake of their fans, I hope they sign Reynolds long-term. He is their best player since Andrew McCutchen, and they got Reynolds in the McCutchen trade, so there’s a nice lineage there. Keep the young star and build around him rather than trade him away for more prospects. Reynolds is a keeper. But, if they are willing to trade him, the Yankees should be on the phone, and Volpe should be in play.

Paul asks: It sounds like there is going to be a roster overhaul this winter. The pitching staff seems in pretty good shape, I expect most of the transformation to happen on the position player side. Am I crazy to think they should approach the offseason as saying, "Keep Judge & Stanton and everyone else can stay or leave"? I mean, nobody is ever truly untouchable, but those 2 are the build-arounds. Who would your build-arounds be? (PS are you doing an offseason plan this year?)

First things first: yes there will be an offseason plan this year. Contract option decisions are due three days after the World Series and qualifying offer decisions are due five days after the World Series, so the offseason plan will run soon after that. Those decisions (at least the non-Yankees decisions) are out of my hands and I want to know who actually hits the market, etc.

As for the question, I’d honestly make everyone available this offseason, even Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Judge is a year away from free agency and who knows whether he’ll re-up. There is no harm in listening to trade offers. Stanton has a full no-trade clause and wants to play in New York, but if you can avoid the inevitable ugly decline years, why not explore it? Maybe he says yes to a trade and more teams are interested once the universal DH becomes a thing.

Judge and Stanton aren’t untouchable, but they are less touchable than everyone else. Gleyber Torres is next for me. His value is way down and he turns only 25 in December. We’ve seen what he can be at his best and I’d hate to give up on him without first letting him work with a new hitting coach. The Yankees got burned by hanging onto Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier too long, and maybe that happens again with Gleyber, but I’d risk it.

Everyone else? Put them out there and make them available. Gio Urshela is good and fun, but not irreplaceable. Joey Gallo is a good yet flawed player, and if the Yankees can move him as part of a wider effort to cut down on strikeouts, they must seriously consider it. If there’s a way to dump the DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Hicks contracts without giving up significant prospects, do it.

Judge, Stanton, and Torres are the only position players on the roster who I strongly believe can be significant contributors to the next championship Yankees team. That doesn’t mean the other guys can’t. It’s just that I feel a lot better about them being difference-makers going forward than, say, LeMahieu in his mid-30s, Gallo with only one year of control remaining, etc.

Can you tell I’ve soured on the current position player core? With the year the offense just had and the regression some individual players exhibited, yeah, I’m down on this group. Judge and Stanton are incredible. The Yankees’ best 1-2 punch is Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield, I believe. But the rest of the offense is a great big blah. I am unenthused.

Dan asks: As Yankee fans, who do you think we should root for in the ALCS, if anyone?

The Astros are the lesser of two evils. I know the hope exists that the Red Sox winning the World Series will embarrass the Yankees and push them into action this offseason, but come on. We’ve seen the Red Sox win the World Series how many times now? And how many times did that lead to a big Yankees offseason? The answer is zero. It doesn’t change their plans.

Beyond being the Yankees historic rivals -- I see the Astros as more of a temporary rival, like the Royals in the late 1970s and Cleveland in the late 1990s -- the Red Sox are the worst parts of modern big market baseball. They cut payroll, going so far as to trade Mookie Betts (!) to do it, and they have the epitome of a “just get into the postseason and we might get hot” roster.

It’s bad enough that stuff is happening all around the league. I don’t want to see it be rewarded. You think Hal Steinbrenner would be embarrassed by the Red Sox winning the World Series? No. He would feel validated because it would show his desired approach (don’t add payroll and just be good enough to get in, and maybe you’ll win) is effective. We don’t need that.

The Astros eliminated the Yankees in 2017, a year we know they were cheating, and in 2019, a year they were likely cheating. I don’t buy the “the Yankees would have won the World Series if the Astros didn’t cheat!” line of thinking because the Yankees were fun more than excellent that year (plus the 2017 Dodgers were really good!) but damn, I would have liked to find out.

With the Astros, I can at least hang my hat on Dusty Baker possibly getting a ring. Dusty is the man and I hope he does well. The rest of the team can bite me. Even post-Jeff Luhnow, the organization is skeevy and I don’t endorse them one bit. I’m rooting for the Red Sox to lose, not the Astros to win, know what I mean? There’s a difference.

There are no good rooting options this postseason. It’s an extremely cursed LCS field. I hope whichever team wins the ALCS loses the World Series in soul-crushing fashion. Since one team has to win the ALCS, I’d rather it not be the Yankees’ primary rivals and a team that is all the things I hate about where baseball is and where it’s heading.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)