RAB Thoughts

Thoughts prior to the 2021 Wild Card Game

Added 2021-10-05 00:25:30 +0000 UTC

Getting sick of the Wild Card Game, you guys. (AP)

UPDATE (11:58am ET on Tuesday): The Yankees announced their Wild Card Game roster this morning, and they are in fact carrying Rob Brantly. Also Greg Allen rather than Estevan Florial. Andrew Heaney and Brody Koerner were designated for assignment to clear 40-man roster space. I don't get why Koerner was added over the weekend. Weird.

Anyway, here's the roster:

No Corey Kluber, who is lined up to pitch today on normal rest, but yes Nestor Cortes, who would be on short rest. I guess the Yankees feel better about Nasty Nestor coming out of the bullpen, which Kluber has never really done. The only differences between the actual roster and my projected roster below are Allen over Florial, and Brantly over Kluber.

Here is Boston's roster. No J.D. Martinez and Chris Sale, so no need to worry about Sale coming out of the bullpen. Also, no Jose Iglesias either. I forgot to mention that last night. He hit .356/.406/.508 (148 wRC+) down the stretch, but was signed after the Aug. 31st postseason-eligibility deadline, so he can't be on the roster.

As for Martinez, his ankle injury must be pretty serious. The Red Sox are carrying 12 pitchers and Martinez might have more value as a decoy (put him in the on-deck circle as a pinch-hit threat and potentially dupe Aaron Boone into a not great pitching change) than a 12th pitcher, but whatever.

(If you care about such things, both ZiPS (58.0%) and PECOTA (57.4%) have the Yankees as the favorites tonight. In one single game though, who knows.)

ORIGINAL POST (8:25pm ET on Monday): In about 24 hours the Yankees will play with their season on the line in Fenway Park. What could go wrong? After grinding through that regular season, I hope the Yankees treat us to a full blown revenge tour postseason. Beat the Red Sox in the Wild Card Game, the Rays in the ALDS, and the Astros in the ALCS. Then go win a World Series. We’ve earned it.

“If we win, I’ll feel great about it,” Aaron Boone joked when asked today how he feels about the win or go home Wild Card Game. “It's probably not perfect this way, but you also live to be in these kind of competitive environments with a ton on the line. We feel as a team we’ve been playing for a while now with a lot on the line. Certainly the last week, 10 days, two weeks.”

This will be the fifth time the Yankees and Red Sox play a win or go home game and the other four are iconic games:

1949 Game 155 (led to the great “Summer of ‘49”)
1978 Game 163 (Bucky Dent game)
2003 ALCS Game 7 (Aaron bleepin’ Boone)
2004 ALCS Game 7 (MLB canceled the World Series afterward, crazy)

The Yankees went 0-7 in their first seven games against the Red Sox this season, and they got embarrassed a few times along the way. Then they rallied to finish 9-3 in their final 12 games against Boston, including the three-game sweep at Fenway Park last weekend. And what does that all mean now? Not a thing. Every game is its own little snowflake, unique from the rest.

Monday’s workout day at Fenway Park was rained out (not a big deal at all, the Yankees could probably use the rest day) but the forecast is clear tomorrow. Won’t be any interruptions. Let’s now look ahead to the Wild Card Game, shall we?

1. Building a Wild Card Game roster. The Wild Card Game is considered its own postseason round and teams can therefore change their roster prior to the ALDS. MLB should really fix that, but it is the rule for now, so the Yankees can design their roster with one game in mind. In 2017 and 2018, they carried only 10 pitchers and a deep bench. I expect something similar this year.

Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) reports teams can carry a nine-man taxi squad this postseason (last postseason it was a 12-man taxi squad), and the only rule is one of the nine must be a catcher. I think the best way to go about projecting the Wild Card Game roster is first building the 35-man traveling roster (26 active and nine taxi squad), and then picking from there. Let’s do it.

The Locks

We can safely assume everyone on the 28-man active roster the final day of the regular season will be included in the 35-man postseason pool. They were trusted enough to be available for an important regular season game, so it stands to reason they will be trusted enough to be part of the postseason taxi squad at the very least. Those 28 players:

Gil was called up Sunday to take DJ LeMahieu’s roster spot and give the Yankees a long man following that bullpen-wrecking blowout loss Saturday. Anyway, don’t sweat the positions or anything like that. Just focus on the names. Those are the first 28 players on our 35-man roster.

LeMahieu is No. 29. Aaron Boone said LeMahieu could be activated for the ALCS should the Yankees advance that far, and I assume injured players you may activate during the postseason count toward the nine-man taxi squad. Otherwise LeMahieu would effectively be a tenth taxi squad player, and that ain’t fair. Safe to assume he counts as No. 29.

Rob Brantly is No. 30. He went up and down as the third catcher this year and the rules say you need a catcher on the nine-man taxi squad, and he’s the obvious choice. Brantly was part of the postseason taxi squad last year and he knows the pitching staff (knows it enough, anyway), so yeah, he’s an easy call for the third catcher.

Albert Abreu and Estevan Florial are Nos. 31 and 32. Abreu went up and down a million times this year (24 times, to be exact) and Florial went up and down a few times as an extra outfielder. The Yankees haven’t had a true backup outfielder on their roster for a while now. Wade has been the backup outfielder by default. Florial’s on the postseason taxi squad. No-brainer.

Although the Yankees did not activate him in September, I have to believe Miguel Andujar will be on the postseason taxi squad. Luke Voit’s injury took away the team’s best bench bat, and if Gallo or Judge or Stanton get hurt in the postseason, Andujar would be the best (only?) candidate to step in at DH. The other option is, uh, Wade? Andujar is No. 33*.

* Andujar is still on the 60-day injured list. He went 11-for-34 (.324) with two homers in 11 rehab games with Triple-A Scranton the last two weeks, so he’s healthy and ready to play if needed. The Yankees would have to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate him though.

The Remaining Candidates

So far our taxi squad includes an injured infielder (LeMahieu), an outfielder (Florial), a corner infielder and left fielder (Andujar), a catcher (Brantly), and a reliever (Abreu), plus the two guys who get dropped when the 28-man September roster shrinks back to a normal 26-man roster. We have two taxi squad spots open and I see nine candidates:

OF Greg Allen (non-40-man)
RHP Deivi Garcia
1B Chris Gittens
LHP Andrew Heaney
IF Kyle Holder (non-40-man)
RHP Brody Koerner
OF Ryan LaMarre (non-40-man)
RHP Nick Nelson
RHP Clarke Schmidt

I know the Yankees put Koerner on the 40-man roster over the weekend, but I have a hard time believing he’s ahead of Heaney and Schmidt on the depth chart. That was a weird move. Remember when the Yankees put Wynston Sawyer on the 40-man last August, then never called him up and dropped him in November? The Koerner add is like that. Weird.

Holder is seemingly the only middle infielder in the system who didn’t start hitting for power this year (he hit .216/.295/.276 and 59 wRC+ in 78 games with Triple-A Scranton), but I think the Yankees will carry him given LeMahieu’s injury. LeMahieu is no lock to return and one more injury (like Urshela flying into the dugout) and they’ll really be short on infielders. Holder can’t hit but he can defend. He’s LeMahieu insurance.

The Yankees don’t need Allen and Florial and LaMarre. That’s overkill. Allen had a nice little run with the Yankees in August and is ahead of LaMarre on the depth chart, but I don’t think either makes the postseason taxi squad. The Yankees are locked into their starting outfield and Florial is the extra taxi squad outfielder. You don’t need another extra outfielder behind him. If they do at some point, they're in trouble.

Here’s a question: who’s the backup first baseman right now? LeMahieu and Voit are hurt. I guess it’s Gallo? He played about a half-season’s worth of games at first base with the Rangers and has by far the most experience at the position among everyone on the MLB roster other than Rizzo. Urshela and Sanchez (and Andujar) have just a handful of innings at first.

I don’t think the Yankees are so worried about the backup first base situation that they’ll carry Gittens on the postseason taxi squad. The plan is to play Rizzo every inning of every game, and if they pinch-run for him at some point, they can throw Gallo (or Urshela) over there for a few innings. Let’s not overthink this. They don’t need Gittens.

Abreu’s on the taxi squad and Gil won’t be on the active roster, but even then two taxi squad pitchers feels light, especially given Taillon’s ankle. The Yankees steered clear of Garcia and Nelson in recent months, so it’s down to Heaney and Schmidt. Heaney is a veteran and the Yankees kept him around for depth rather than drop him from the 40-man. They like Schmidt enough to give him a start in an important game at Citi Field last month.

We came into this section with two open spots and I’m giving one to Holder. My guess is the final taxi squad spot goes to Heaney over Schmidt given his veteran-ness. That leaves Abreu, Gil, and Heaney as the extra arms and I hope the Yankees need precisely zero of them. Our 35-man player pool:

It’s kinda straightforward, no? Maybe they take Schmidt over Heaney, or Allen over Andujar, but there aren’t any super hard decisions or much room for surprise here. Now that that’s in place, we can pare the 35-man player pool down to a 26-man Wild Card Game roster.

Pitchers To Drop

We have a pretty good idea what the bulk of the Wild Card Game roster will look like, right? It will be the same core guys who’ve been on the roster all year, especially on the position player side. The pitching staff is a little different because you don’t need all five starting pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster. You can add those guys back before the ALDS.

Because of that, I think the Yankees drop Montgomery and Taillon. Taillon started Sunday on a bad ankle. There is basically no scenario in which they use him on one day rest in the Wild Card Game. Montgomery started Saturday and how bad would things have to get to use him on two days rest tomorrow? Really bad. So bad it’s not worth worrying about.

Kluber will be on normal rest tomorrow and that keeps him on the roster. You don’t want to have to use him, but if Cole’s hamstring acts up during warmups and he can’t pitch, or you get super deep into extra innings, Kluber will be available. He’s the backup starter. The Yankees carried Sonny Gray in 2017 and Masahiro Tanaka in 2018 for that reason.

Cortes would be on short rest tomorrow and I’m on the fence about him. I think he’d be able to give the Yankees a few innings, if necessary. That’s not really a question. The question is when would the Yankees use him? Is he the best use of a roster spot? Let’s put him in the maybe pile for now, and check back in a little later.

Gil comes off the roster as we cut down to 26 players. What about German? He hasn’t pitched much lately and I’m not sure when the Yankees would ask him to pitch, other than deep into extra innings or a blowout. I’m going to put him in the maybe pile too. German is a man without a role, though he also has a good enough arm to warrant consideration.

What About The Lefties?

Saturday’s game went sideways and the Yankees had to extend Luetge (53 pitches) and Rodriguez (38 pitches). Will they even be available to pitch on two days rest tomorrow? I’m sure Rodriguez will be fine, but geez, Luetge really had to wear it. At best he’s giving you what, an inning in the Wild Card Game? Might be better to carry Cortes in that case.

As a team, the Red Sox were better against righties (.260/.328/.460 and 109 wRC+) than lefties (.264/.329/.429 and 102 wRC+) this year, though that doesn’t mean you want to throw a parade of southpaws at them. Guys like Xander Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec, and J.D. Martinez will pepper the Green Monster in that case. Overall platoon splits don’t tell the whole story.

If at all possible, you want to match up with a lefty against Rafael Devers. He slugs .621 against righties and only .405 against lefties, and the Red Sox won’t pinch-hit for him. Kyle Schwarber is another matter. He has always been weak against lefties, and these last few weeks he has essentially platooned with Dalbec, and they’ll pinch-hit for each other when appropriate.

Rodriguez is a great left-on-left guy who has to be sheltered against righties, and maybe having to try so hard to find a lane for him is a reason to keep him off the roster? Luetge and Peralta (and Cortes) have a more neutral split. They can get out righties and lefties. I think Rodriguez makes it though. He’s way too good against lefties. It’s an elite skill that can be leveraged.

The Yankees carried 10 pitchers on their 2017 and 2018 Wild Card Game rosters. That was during the 25-man rosters era, so figure 11 pitchers tomorrow. The Yankees had 16 pitchers on their Game 162 roster and dropping Gil, Montgomery, and Taillon gets us to 13. I think Luetge gets left off after wearing it Saturday. Sucks, but if he’s compromised at all, there’s no sense in carrying him.

Drop Luetge and we’re at 12 pitchers. Who gets dropped between Cortes and German? I think German goes. Cortes has outperformed him this season and he’s stretched out. Even on short rest, Cortes is better able to give you, say, three innings and 50 pitches. German hasn’t thrown more than 35 pitches in a game since July. Cortes is our 11th pitcher.

The Extra Bench Players

11 pitchers equals 15 position players, and we have 17 position players on our 35-man player pool, one of whom is injured (LeMahieu). Leaving Holder off is the easy call, so there’s our 15. Would the Yankees really make 40-man moves to add Andujar and Brantly though? They should, they are their best options for the roster, but I think they would’ve given Voit’s 40-man spot to one of them in that case, not Koerner.

Gittens, Heaney, and Nelson figure to be on the 40-man chopping block, though if the Yankees were going to designate Heaney for assignment, they would’ve done it last week. Nelson has a good arm (he’s stunk, but he has talent) and I don’t think the Yankees want to cut him now, when working out a trade would be tough. He’d definitely get claimed on waivers.

Gittens is an easy drop. The only question is whether the Yankees want to go through with it to carry Andujar or Brantly for one game. I say yes. It’s a win or go home game! Put the best, most functional roster together. A third catcher would be ideal. Higashioka is starting tomorrow and Sanchez might pinch-hit later. An extra catcher could come in handy.

Florial gets a roster spot tomorrow. That’s obvious. He gives them an extra outfielder and also another pinch-runner option. My guess -- I emphasize this is only a guess -- is the Yankees will not activate Andujar or Brantly, and instead carry 13 pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster. So all that stuff about Cortes, German, and Luetge? Forget it. I think they all make it now.

I say that because giving Voit’s 40-man roster spot to Brody friggin’ Koerner yesterday is a good indication the Yankees aren’t planning other 40-man moves. If the Yankees were planning to put Andujar on the Wild Card Game roster, they would’ve given him Voit’s 40-man spot, not Koerner. It doesn’t make sense otherwise. So, this is our projected Wild Card Game roster:

That’s my projected Wild Card Game roster. I think 13 pitchers is overkill and I’d really like to get Andujar (extra bat in case you remove a regular for a pinch-runner) and Brantly (third catcher) on there, but I don’t think the Yankees will do it. They had an open 40-man spot just yesterday and gave it to Koerner for some reason.

The Wild Card Game rosters are due to MLB tomorrow morning and they’ll be announced to the rest of the world soon thereafter. I hope the Yankees drop at least one pitcher and carry Andujar or Brantly. For one single game -- a game your ace is starting and hopefully pitches deep -- 13 pitchers is overdoing it. Andujar and Brantly would give the Yankees better options.

2. The pitching plan. I did not mention this yesterday but starting Jameson Taillon in Game 162 was the right move, and I’m not saying that in hindsight. I thought so beforehand. It wasn’t a win or go home game. The Yankees were assured at least a Game 163 tiebreaker, so the next game was guaranteed to be a win or go home game. That’s the game you want Gerrit Cole starting. Saving him was smart.

“Can we get it going already?” Cole said today when asked about the anticipation of pitching in the Wild Card Game. “A bit of a waiting game I think, which is good for the body, good for the mind to a certain extent to recover, but you’re chomping at the bit to get out there. Excited for the challenge that’s ahead of us.”

This will be Cole’s second career Wild Card Game start. He started the 2015 Wild Card Game game with the Pirates and got hit around pretty good by the Cubs (four runs in five innings, including a Kyle Schwarber homer), though that was a long time ago and a different Gerrit Cole. Only two other pitchers have started multiple Wild Card Games*: Madison Bumgarner and Luis Severino.

* Not counting the Wild Card Series round last year. I mean the one-and-done Wild Card Game. Bumgarner and Severino are the only guys to start two of those to date.

Also, this will be Cole’s fifth start in a winner-take-all postseason game, tying Roger Clemens for the most in history. Who knew? Here are his four previous winner-take-all postseason starts. The 2019 game is the only game Cole’s team won despite his 3.09 ERA.

2013 NLDS Game 5 at STL: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR
2015 NL Wild Card Game vs. CHC: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR
2019 ALDS Game 5 vs. TB: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K, 1 HR
2020 ALDS Game 5 vs. TB: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 1 HR (on short rest)

Because the Yankees won Sunday and avoided a tiebreaker game -- given the day’s other outcomes, they would have played the Blue Jays in Toronto today to decide the second Wild Card spot had they lost yesterday -- Cole will go into tomorrow’s start with an extra day of rest. That’s good for the hamstring and good for his arm overall. Cole hasn’t made a start with extra rest in nearly a month.

Cole made four starts against the Red Sox this year and they were a mixed bag. One bad, one okay, one good, one great. His first start against Boston was the stinky one. That was the six runs in five innings game. In his last three starts against the Red Sox, Cole allowed seven runs in 17 innings and struck out 25, and he was quite good in Fenway Park last weekend.

June 27th at BOS: 5 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 3 HR
July 17th vs. BOS: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K, 0 HR
July 23rd at BOS: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 HR
Sept. 24th at BOS: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HR

Enrique Hernandez hit a home run on the first pitch Cole threw to a Red Sox batter this season, and Cole has pitched him like he’s Barry Bonds since. Hernandez is 4-for-9 with three walks and no strikeouts against Cole this season, and look at the pitch types and locations:

Gotta show him something inside, man. It can’t just be sliders away all the time. Hernandez is a .244/.321/.423 (99 wRC+) hitter against righties this year. I’m not saying give him a fastball right down the middle, but what Cole (and Kyle Higashioka) have given Hernandez so far this year hasn’t worked. Gotta keep the leadoff guy off base, you know? Do better, please.

Anyway, the pitching plan is to let Cole dominate for eight innings and take it from there. That is unlikely to happen, the Red Sox are really good, so the Yankees have to come up with Plan B and Plan C. The good news: the bullpen is well-rested. No reliever got more than four outs or threw more than 24 pitches Sunday. Everyone is available tomorrow.

The season to date tells us Jonathan Loaisiga is Aaron Boone’s Moment of Truth™ reliever, and deservedly so. Loaisiga is the guy Boone wants on the mound in a big spot, against any part of the lineup. The last few weeks tell us Boone wants Clay Holmes to face the other team’s best hitters, especially if they’re righties. The batters he faced his last five appearances:

Sept. 26th at BOS: RHB Xander Bogaerts, RHB J.D. Martinez, RHB Bobby Dalbec
Sept. 28th at TOR: RHB Vlad Guerrero Jr., RHB Bo Bichette, RHB Teoscar Hernandez, RHB Lourdes Gurriel
Sept. 29th at TOR: RHB Bo Bichette, RHB Teoscar Hernandez, RHB Lourdes Gurriel, LHB Corey Dickerson
Oct. 1st vs. Rays: RHB Randy Arozarena, SHB Wander Franco, RHB Nelson Cruz, RHB Yandy Diaz
Oct. 3rd vs. Rays: RHB Randy Arozarena, SHB Wander Franco, RHB Nelson Cruz

Pretty clear usage pattern there. When presented with the opportunity, Holmes is going to face the other team’s best righty hitters. That’s the matchup -- that’s the “lane” -- the Yankees want. We don’t know what Boston’s lineup will look like tomorrow, but in the final four games of the regular season, it started like this:

RHB Enrique Hernandez
LHB Kyle Schwarber
RHB Xander Bogaerts
LHB Rafael Devers
RHB J.D. Martinez

They recently flipped Bogaerts and Devers, so that little righty lane is no longer there. Either you have to let Holmes face Devers, or he can’t face Bogaerts and Martinez. Holmes has dominated righties (.176/.249/.222 and .222 wOBA). Lefties? No. They’ve hit .272/.388/.420 (.350 wOBA) against him this year. Flipping Bogaerts and Devers could create matchup headaches for Holmes.

Chad Green has moved down the pecking order a bit. He’s faced the bottom of the lineup more than the top or middle of the lineup lately. Peralta is a do-it-all guy. There’s no obvious pattern to his recent usage other than he’ll primarily face lefties. I think the pitching plan behind Cole looks something like this going into tonight:

Aroldis Chapman: Closer (duh)
Jonathan Loaisiga: Any part of the lineup but preferably the middle
Luis Severino: Any part of the lineup
Chad Green: Bottom of the lineup, ideally
Clay Holmes: Hope they don’t put Devers between Bogaerts and Martinez

The best case scenario tonight is Cole to Loaisiga to Chapman with no other futzing around. If that’s not possible, so be it. The current bullpen is incredibly deep. The Yankees have so many different looks and styles. They can match up with anyone, and Loaisiga and Severino are fierce. Those two are such big weapons. Having one is awesome. Both? Incredible.

Cole has had trouble with the Red Sox at times this season and he’s definitely had trouble since the hamstring issue. Maybe the hamstring is unrelated. Whatever it is, he hasn’t been great the last few times out. If he’s laboring and Boone has to pull the plug early, then do it. The bullpen is deep and you can’t leave a guy out there and hope he figures it out in an elimination game. As we saw Sunday, the Yankees have the bullpen horses to piece a game together, if necessary.

3. Notes on the Red Sox. The Red Sox are pretty damn good and Fenway Park is a tough place to play. That’s my Wild Card Game preview. End of post.

In all seriousness, the Yankees play the Red Sox so much that there aren’t many secrets here. We know who’s good, who can do damage, who can be pitched to, who you don’t want to see come out of the bullpen, etc. Here are a few notes and thoughts on the Red Sox going into the game tomorrow.

Martinez is questionable

J.D. Martinez is questionable for tomorrow’s game. He twisted his left ankle Sunday because he *checks notes* tripped over second base while heading out to play right field. A very Metsian injury, J.D. My guess is he’ll be in there at DH tomorrow, though Red Sox manager Alex Cora insists Martinez is questionable. He’s getting treatment and they’ll evaluate him in the morning.

“We’re waiting. He’s getting treatment,” Cora said today. “We’ll probably have to make a decision tomorrow morning. We don’t know yet.”

Martinez limped to the finish this year (figuratively and literally, apparently) and hit .268/.320/.467 (105 wRC+) in the second half. That’s not bad, but it’s not J.D. Martinez. Still, even if he plays tomorrow, I’m not going to look forward to his at-bats even knowing the numbers and knowing he’s hobbled. Martinez can change a game with one swing.

If Martinez doesn’t play tonight, then the obvious move is putting Kyle Schwarber at DH and Bobby Dalbec at first base. Those two have been quasi-platooning lately, and with Martinez out, they’ll both be in the lineup. My guess is Martinez is in there at DH. If not, then Schwarber and Dalbec are a pretty solid backup plan.

Eovaldi against the Yankees

Tomorrow will be Nathan Eovaldi’s seventh start against the Yankees this year. He really started against them in all six regular season series, huh? I didn’t realize it. The Yankees hammered Eovaldi last weekend, scoring seven runs in 2.2 innings. In the other five starts, he allowed only eight runs in 31.1 innings. He’s had their number since joining the Red Sox.

The Yankees are an extremely patient offense -- they had the highest walk rate (10.2%), second lowest chase rate (23.8%), and saw the most pitches per plate appearance (4.10) in baseball this year -- though they flipped the script against Eovaldi last weekend, and swung early in the count. 12 of the 17 batters he faced that night swung at the first or second pitch.

Eovaldi typically throws a ton of strikes. He had the lowest walk rate (4.6%) and second highest zone rate (57.2%) in baseball this season, so waiting around won’t work. Try to work the count and you’ll be behind 0-1 and 0-2 all night, and that’s no way to hit. Swinging early worked very well last time out. Eovaldi and the Red Sox know that. An adjustment is coming.

What is that adjustment? I suspect more non-fastballs early in the count, the kind of pitches that look like strikes until they aren’t strikes, and get whiffs or weak contact when executed properly. If the Yankees recognize that and can lay off those pitches, great. If not, then they’ll play right into Eovaldi’s hands. Clearly though, an adjustment is coming. Eovaldi’s game plan has to change after that clunker, even with all the success he’s had against the Yankees historically.

The bullpen then is not the bullpen now

The Yankees scored nine runs in 14 innings against the Red Sox bullpen during the three-game sweep last weekend, including four runs in an inning in the finale. A fun comeback, it was. Boston’s bullpen put up a 3.99 ERA (4.06 FIP) this season, including a 4.03 ERA (4.02 FIP) in the seventh inning or later. Those are middle of the pack numbers at best.

On paper, the Red Sox bullpen is a weakness, and that could prove to be true again in the Wild Card Game. I think the bullpen we see tomorrow will be different than the bullpen we saw last weekend though. A few reasons for that. One, Garrett Whitlock is back. He was on the injured list last weekend but returned the other day, so the Red Sox will have him. That’s a biggie.

And two, Cora is very much a “use starters in relief” guy in the postseason. The Astros did it when he was bench coach in 2017, he did it with the Red Sox throughout their run to the World Series in 2018, and he even did it this past weekend. Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Pivetta both came out of the bullpen Sunday to help close out that game. This is a thing.

Given that, I worry Chris Sale will be available tomorrow. He threw 62 pitches Sunday, so he couldn't give much length, but an inning in a close game? I could see it, even so soon after Tommy John surgery. Rodriguez and Pivetta will likely be available. Sale’s the one who worries me. I’m getting Randy Johnson in 1995 and 2001 flashbacks here.

The Red Sox will get what they can get from Eovaldi, then I think the bullpen plan involves as much Whitlock and Rodriguez as possible with Sale looming as a kill shot. Pivetta and Hansel Robles are next in line given the club’s recent usage. I’m not sure Ottavino or especially Matt Barnes sees an important inning tomorrow as long as Cora can help it.

Watch the running game

As expected, Aaron Boone confirmed Kyle Higashioka will catch Gerrit Cole tomorrow. Not exactly a surprise. Higashioka has been Cole’s personal catcher since last September and I see no reason to think that will change anytime soon. Cole’s going to keep Higashioka on the roster a good long time, I reckon.

Anyway, the running game is an x-factor tomorrow. The Red Sox are not a big stolen base team (only 40 during the regular season), though they have a few individual players who will steal bases, including Xander Bogaerts and Dalbec. For Cole and Higashioka, base stealers are a capital-P Problem. The stolen base numbers against them:

Cole: 9-for-9 this year and 70-for-85 since 2016 (82%)
Higashioka: 33-for-35 this year (87%)

Yikes. Yikes yikes yikes. Statcast stopped publishing catcher throwing data last year for some reason, but in 2019, Higashioka had a top tier transfer but middle of the pack throwing velocity. I wrote about how poor his throws were during the Kansas City series, and runners went 7-for-7 stealing against him in the final two weeks of the regular season. Again: yikes.

Cole does not hold runners especially well, it dates back to his time with the Pirates and Astros, and Higashioka’s arm is a liability. This is an exploitable weakness. The Red Sox aren’t built to steal bases, but you don’t need to be prime Rickey Henderson to run on these two. If the Red Sox are smart (they are), they’ll look to take advantage. Stolen bases are an x-factor.

(Cora said the speedy Jarren Duran will be on their Wild Card Game roster, presumably as their designated pinch-hitter. Chances are Cole will be out of the game by time Duran enters, though that’s a thing to watch. Duran is crazy fast and will be looming on the bench.)

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Gio Urshela is good to go tomorrow. “He might be a little stiff or whatever, but I don’t think it will have much impact. If there was a game today, he’d be playing,” Aaron Boone said earlier today. Incredible Gio escaped that crash with only a seemingly minor injury … Gleyber Torres is likely to remain in the leadoff spot. I guess the other option is Brett Gardner, but Torres is hitting well, so they’re going to stick with it. “As I’m sitting here right now, I’m thinking probably Gleyber. But I’ll sit and get with (bench coach Carlos Mendoza) and the coaches tonight and see exactly the way I want to go,” Boone said. It’ll be Gleyber. Boone is hedging a little bit just because that’s what he always does.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. Those features are on the back burner during the postseason, but they’ll be back soon enough.)