September 27th, 2021: Stanton, Red Sox, Torres, LeMahieu, Awards

One week remains in the most rollercoastery regular season I can remember. I mean, if this season doesn't qualify as rollercoastery …

… then no season does. The postseason odds went from 97.8% to 28.9% to 81.1% in 30 days. A 121.1 percentage point swing in a month. The Yankees authoritatively swept the Red Sox in Fenway Park this past weekend, and currently sit in the top Wild Card spot. The race isn’t over yet though. Not even close. Still work to be done. The Yankees are on pace to go 93-69 with six games remaining. Here are Tuesday morning’s thoughts Monday night since it’s an off-day.

1. Weekend thoughts. Three games in Fenway Park and three wins, each more important than the last. The Yankees showed up big time in their most important series of the season and secured their first sweep of at least three games in Boston since May 2015. I am mildly surprise it had been that long since their last Fenway Park sweep. A few thoughts on the three games.

Stanton’s MVP weekend

Giancarlo Stanton’s grand slam Saturday is my favorite homer since Didi Gregorius’ three-run home run in the 2017 Wild Card Game. It checked every box. The ball was annihilated, it was insanely clutch within the game and within the season, it came against the Red Sox, the NESN broadcast was despondent, and the bat flip was amazing (video link).

When you’re a former MVP and you hit a massive dinger against your rival in the middle of the postseason race, yeah, you can pimp it. That was an MVP moment from an MVP talent in the middle of an MVP weekend. Stanton went 7-for-12 (.583) with three homers in the three games in Boston. He drove in 10 runs. The Red Sox scored nine runs in the series.

"It’s a great feeling,” Stanton told Bryan Hoch about hitting the grand slam. “There were a lot of emotions going on. I’m just glad I was able to do it, compress everything, and be on time for the fastball. Something good happened.”

The grand slam was made possible by three great two-out at-bats. Brett Gardner fell behind in the count 1-2, then worked a walk against Tanner Houck. Aaron Judge then drew a walk after a 2-2 count. Anthony Rizzo got ahead in the count 3-1 before taking a 96 mph fastball to the knee. Two quick outs to begin the inning, then three grind-it-out at-bats to set up Stanton. Beautiful.

“There were a lot of great at-bats -- winning at-bats -- to set that situation up,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “The inning hinges on, ‘Come on and get on, Rizz.’ If Rizz can work his way on, Giancarlo coming up with the bases loaded pops into your head. For him to go up and stick it on that first one, he didn’t waste any time.”

The grand slam was also made possible by lineup balance and the three-batter minimum. Stanton got to face a predictable lefty (Darwinzon Hernandez throws roughly 75% fastballs) because Rizzo goaded Red Sox manager Alex Cora into bringing in a southpaw. Without Rizzo there, Stanton faces the righty Houck, or another hard-throwing righty. No chance he faces a lefty without Rizzo ahead of him.

“They better get him out,” Stanton told Max Goodman when asked what was going through his mind when the Red Sox brought in the lefty to face Rizzo. What a great quote. Similar to Alex Rodriguez, a good chunk of the fan base has decided they just don’t like Stanton, and nothing he does will ever be enough. That’s their loss. This dude’s awesome.

Stanton is the second Yankee ever with 10 RBI in a three-game series against the Red Sox and the first to do it in Fenway Park. Mickey Mantle did it at Yankee Stadium in 1954. Also, Stanton is one of four players with three homers in 10 RBI in a three-game span against the Red Sox. The other three: Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, and Babe Ruth. That is some company.

Stanton is hitting .277/.359/.520 (139 wRC+) this season (he is 18th in wRC+ among the 135 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title) and .314/.368/.638 (170 wRC+) with 18 homers since Aug. 1st. He’s stayed healthy and he’s mashed. He won’t get much more than down ballot MVP support (more on that later), but Stanton has risen to the occasion the last few weeks, and especially so this past weekend.

“We were talking about it in the dugout, we had the right guy up,” Nestor Cortes told Hoch about Stanton’s grand slam. “He’s been hot lately. You wouldn’t want anybody better at this point. As soon as he was on second base, he looked at us and we just gave him a flex. It was awesome.”

The Boston Mini-Massacre

I have a lot of thoughts on Sunday’s game and the weekend in general, and I have no idea how to organize them, so I’m just going to throw them all here and see how it goes. Sound good? First, what a great weekend for the middle of the Yankees order and what a bad weekend for the middle of the Red Sox order. The numbers in the three games:

• Judge, Rizzo, and Stanton: 12-for-37 (.324) with five doubles and three homers
• Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez: 7-for-36 (.194) with two doubles and one homer

Bogaerts and Martinez were invisible. The Yankees did an excellent job neutralizing them. Judge, Rizzo, and Stanton were in the middle of basically everything. They broke the game open in the early innings Friday and fueled the comeback rallies Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, the middle of Boston’s lineup was where rallies went to die.

Second, wow did the Yankees get lucky during Judge’s at-bat in the eighth inning Sunday. Bobby Dalbec failed to catch a foul pop up -- Dalbec seems wall-averse based on what I've seen this year -- and then home plate umpire Joe West ruled the foul tip strikeout was dropped. I had it as a foul tip strikeout and a drop on the transfer (GIF via @pitcherclips):

Yeah, that looks like a foul tip caught for strike three, then a drop on the transfer. West disagreed (I acknowledge calling that in real time is extremely difficult) and ultimately his opinion is the only one that matters. Jack Curry notes the play is not reviewable (kinda dumb, but whatever), so Cora’s hands were tied. Twice the at-bat was extended (Dalbec’s non-catch and non-foul tip), and Judge took advantage with the go-ahead double.

“I felt like a cat. I felt like I had nine lives up there,” Judge told Hoch after the game.

Third, I know we’re oversaturated with exit velocity these days, but the numbers in that eighth inning yesterday were bonkers. Look:

• Rizzo: 115.2 mph double (his hardest hit ball of the Statcast era)
• Judge: 118.4 mph double
• Stanton: 116.4 mph home run

It’s the first time a team had three 115 mph batted balls in an inning and only the fourth time a team had three 115 mph batted balls in a game in a Statcast era (the Yankees did it the other three times too). Eight teams do not have three 115 mph batted balls this season, yet the Yankees did it in three straight at-bats, and they were essentially the three most important at-bats of the year. Wild.

Fourth, the grand slam Saturday was electric and the insurance run homer Sunday was a great capper to a great weekend, but Friday’s home run was one of those “only Stanton can do that” homers. He inside-outed a 93 mph cutter into the bullpen. Who does that? Look at this (video):

Derek Jeter built a Hall of Fame career on serving that pitch to right field for a single. Stanton did all the same things Jeter did on an inside pitch (let the ball travel deep in the zone, pulled his hands in, kept his head on the ball, etc.) and muscled it 386 feet the other way for a three-run homer. That is decidedly not normal. I’m not sure any other hitter in baseball can do that.

“To take that cutter inner half or on the corner in and drive it out the other way in right-center, he’s about the only guy doing that right there,” Boone told Greg Joyce following Friday’s game. “Just really good at-bats all night by him. He continues to really swing the bat well.”

Fifth, the Adam Ottavino trade was a long con. You’re never going to get me onboard with the Yankees giving up prospects to salary dump players to adhere to a fake salary cap, but the Yankees don’t miss Ottavino at all right now, and he gave up the yams Sunday. Ottavino is almost uniquely designed to get out Judge and Stanton, yet they came through with the game-changing blows. A well-placed sleeper agent, Ottavino was.

“I was able to get ahead in the count and then I just tried to trust my fastball for the most part and throw as hard as I could,” Ottavino told Chris Cotillo about the Judge at-bat. “Just couldn’t overcome (the dropped popup and dropped third strike). I think the last pitch probably wasn’t a very good pitch. I just wasn’t able to overcome that. Yeah, that one hurt.”

Sixth, Boone got outsmarted in the seventh inning Sunday. The Red Sox sent the lefty Travis Shaw up to pinch-hit for the righty Christian Arroyo, and Boone responded by pulling the dominant Clay Holmes (struck out the middle of the order on 11 pitches in the sixth!) for lefty Joely Rodriguez. The Red Sox wanted Holmes out of the game and Boone obliged.

Boone apparently didn’t foresee the Red Sox pinch-hitting the righty Jose Iglesias for Shaw. It’s Travis Shaw, who cares about burning his at-bat? And Iglesias was going to come in for defense the next inning anyway. Rodriguez dominates lefties. Righties? Not so much. Boone got duped into bringing a lesser reliever into worse matchups. Should’ve stuck with Holmes against Shaw.

Seventh, two hands on pop ups going forward please. The usually reliable DJ LeMahieu and Joey Gallo dropped routine Kyle Schwarber pop ups in the same at-bat to give Boston the lead in the seventh inning Sunday. On one hand, I appreciate them giving the Red Sox hope before the Yankees ripped their hearts out. On the other hand, please catch pop ups going forward. Thanks.

“Just one of those plays that you’re like, ‘What the heck just happened?’” LeMahieu told Hoch about the dropped pop ups. “I’m glad we were able to come back and win the game.”

Eighth, what the hell Tyler Wade? Boone said Wade didn’t slide on his eighth inning stolen base attempt because he thought the pitch was fouled off, but come on. LeMahieu didn’t even swing! That sounds like a manager protecting his player. The caught stealing an inning later was whatever. He just got got. The non-slide though? Come on man. You have one job, Tyler.

And ninth, the Yankees can’t seem to escape a series without a dumb injury or two. First, Judge dislocated his left pinky sliding into second base on his go-ahead double. They popped it back into place (ouch) and he says he’ll be fine because he doesn’t need it to hit. Still, that can’t feel good. Hopefully it doesn’t swell and there’s no lingering soreness or anything like that.

Then, later in that inning, Stanton bopped Gleyber Torres on the helmet to celebrate his homer and damn near concussed him. Torres had to step out during his at-bat that inning to knock out the cobwebs. “I might have been a little too hyped. I gotta ease up next time,” Stanton told Joyce. A very 2021 Yankees injury, that would have been.

Second base Gleyber

Me on Sept. 14th, after the Yankees moved Torres back to second base:

Torres went 4-for-12 with a double and a homer during the Mets series and had great at-bats throughout, and he hit .304/.343/.489 (124 wRC+) the month before the thumb injury. If he finishes the year strong, we’ll hear that it was the move to second that fixed his bat. Take it to the bank. It is the laziest narrative and laziness usually prevails.

The rest of the internet this past weekend:

There’s predictable, then there’s the baseball media building a connection between unrelated events to explain something. And hey, I’m 100% guilty of it too. In this case though, it was extra predictable. Torres has been hitting well since the All-Star break, long before he moved back over to second base, but only now is that offensive turnaround being acknowledged.

“There may be something to it,” Boone told Dan Martin when asked whether the position change has contributed to Gleyber’s hot streak at the plate. “It may be a good player starting to lock in this time of year. All I know is he’s playing really well for us.”

Maybe there really is something to the hot streak and the position change. Who knows? Maybe Torres is so much more comfortable at second base that it has allowed him to extend this hot streak longer than it otherwise would have gone on. This isn’t something that started with the position change though. It’s something that continued through the position change.

Torres is hitting .287/.339/.446 (113 wRC+) since the All-Star break and that is pretty much 2018-19 Torres minus a bunch of power (.275/.338/.511 and 123 wRC+ from 2018-19). His at-bats are generally good and he’s always had a knack for situational hitting. Gleyber will shorten up and poke a single to center or inside-out a pitch to right when necessary.

There’s nothing Gleyber can do to salvage his overall season numbers at this point. They’re going to be league average-ish at best. He can still be a factor in the postseason race though, and he has been the last few weeks. Attributing the offensive turnaround to the position change is misguided though. One happened way before the other.

"Like I always say, I'm here to play any position for my team," Torres told Hoch over the weekend. "Just help in any situation. Now playing second, it's the same. I'm trying to be more confident. I think I played two years at second, and I've had a lot of practice. I'm just doing my job, focusing on defense, always focusing on hitting. Trying to do the little things to help my team."

2. LeMahieu’s injury. It was clear something is up with DJ LeMahieu when he wasn’t in the starting lineup Saturday despite an off-day two days earlier and another off-day two days away, and it turns out he’s been dealing with a vague groin/hip issue the last few weeks. The injury is bad enough that he’s had an MRI.

“I just told them, ‘Let’s worry about it after the season.’ There has been discomfort for a while, but I feel like the last few weeks, it just hasn’t felt right,” LeMahieu told Bryan Hoch. “I’m not moving as quickly, not that I’m the quickest out there. It’s limiting a little bit, but it’s not the time in the season to be resting it a bunch. We’re just going to keep rolling with it.”

LeMahieu also told Dan Martin he is “not sure yet” whether the issue will require surgery. If this issue is hampering LeMahieu enough that he needed a day in the middle of an ultra-important three-game series bookended by off-days, then there’s probably no chance he plays all three games on the turf in Toronto. He might have to sit the middle game again.

Does the injury explain LeMahieu’s down season? Maybe. His production has been down all year though, and it sounds like the injury is fairly recent. LeMahieu wasn’t driving the ball at all the first weeks, then looked like himself for a bit during the summer, and now is back to being unable to drive the ball. He’s had a lot of soft singles lately.

The injury has been described as a groin/hip issue, and a compromised lower half could explain the inability to drive the ball. LeMahieu doesn’t have a solid base underneath him when hitting and is taking all-arms (or mostly-arms) swings. It tracks. I don’t know if that’s what’s happening, but a lower body injury leading to an inability to drive the ball is a thing that happens.

There are so many built-in off-days during the postseason that, if the Yankees advance beyond the Wild Card Game, keeping LeMahieu in the lineup shouldn’t be too difficult. Apparently he was given the okay to play through the injury, which means a) it’s all about pain tolerance, and b) it’s not something he can make (much) worse. That’s usually how these things go.

LeMahieu resting and healing over the winter and coming back in 2022 as 2019-20 LeMahieu would be amazing, though I fear that's optimistic. For starters, he turns 34 next year, and we shouldn’t expect any soon-to-be 34-year-old to produce like he did when he was 31 and 32. Expecting a rebound with good health isn’t unreasonable. A rebound all the way to 2019-20 though? Eh.

We don’t know the nature of the injury but, generally speaking, offseason surgery would be bad. You never want to cut into a guy entering his mid-30s with five years remaining on his contract. The worst case scenario would be a hip labrum issue a la Alex Rodriguez. The rehab could extend into the start of next season and possibly cut into LeMahieu’s mobility permanently.

We know this much: LeMahieu is not healthy. He’s dealing with something severe enough that he couldn’t play three straight days in the biggest series of the season, and he’s already talking about it as something they will address in the offseason. Maybe it explains the down year and he returns good as new after an offseason of rest. We’ll worry about that when the time comes. For now, this is something LeMahieu and the Yankees have to manage this the rest of the year.

“I’m confident he’s about as tough as they come,” Aaron Boone told Martin. “And I know he can play through things. He’s done that and shown that and proved that to us the last few seasons with us. He can navigate through stretches where he’s a little beat up and this is another one of those. I’m confident he can tolerate and he can manage not being 100% and still play really well.”

3. The Blue Jays series. Shoutout to the Twins. They split four games with the Blue Jays over the weekend and beat them three times in seven games the last two weekends. That’s at least two more wins than I expected. You can always count on Minnesota doing whatever the Yankees need done, eh? The updated Wild Card standings:

1. Yankees: 89-67 (+1.0 GB)
2. Red Sox: 88-68
3. Blue Jays: 87-69 (1.0 GB)
4. Mariners: 86-70 (2.0 GB)
5. Athletics: 85-71 (3.0 GB)

The Yankees play three games in Toronto this week, then go home to finish up the season with three games against the Rays. The Blue Jays play the Orioles next weekend. The Red Sox play the Orioles this week, then the Nationals over the weekend. The Yankees have a scheduling disadvantage, but also the Blue Jays just split four games with the Twins, so who knows.

“We’re going to play the big dogs, and we’re going to play them at home in front of 30,000 fans*,” Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen told Keegan Matheson over the weekend. “I think that’s a big thing -- a huge thing -- having those fans in the home crowd and being in Toronto. It’s going to be everything for us. We’re going to keep building off the momentum we have now.”

* The Blue Jays were capped at 15,000 fans at Rogers Centre the last few weeks, but the Ontario government recently approved 75% capacity or 30,000 fans at sporting venues, whichever is less. So 30,000 fans it will be in Toronto this week (about 56% capacity).

This series will be the first time the Yankees play in Rogers Centre since Sept. 13-15, 2019. The series finale was Jordan Montgomery’s first game back from Tommy John surgery and also Dellin Betances’ last game as a Yankee. Dellin made his season debut that day following a shoulder injury, then blew out his Achilles during a post-strikeout hop. I hate this sport sometimes.

A few things to know going into the series. One, the Yankees can clinch a postseason spot! They can clinch a few different things, actually, and they’ll need some help to do most of it, but it is possible to clinch a postseason spot while in Toronto. The clinching scenarios:

Clinch an extra game: Three wins or two wins and a Mariners loss. That would guarantee the Yankees play beyond the 162-game regular season. Could be either a Game 163 tiebreaker or the Wild Card Game, but it would clinch a 163rd game of some sort.

Clinch a postseason spot: Three wins and a Mariners loss. Sweep the series, get some help from the A’s (Seattle and Oakland are playing three games this week), and the Yankees will punch their ticket to the postseason. This would not necessarily clinch the top Wild Card spot, I should note. It would just clinch a postseason spot in general.

Clinch the top Wild Card spot. Three wins and three Red Sox losses. The Orioles beating the Red Sox three times is an awful lot to ask, so this is very unlikely. But, if it happens, and the Yankees manage to sweep Toronto, they’ll have the top Wild Card spot no matter what the Mariners do because the Blue Jays and Red Sox would be buried, and the Yankees hold the tiebreaker over Seattle.

Got all that? The Yankees really need to win at least two of three this series. Win just one and the Yankees will go into the final weekend with a magic number of three, which means either sweep the Rays (eh) or count on the Orioles to beat the Blue Jays (ehhh). Take two of three this week and you go into the final weekend with a magic number of one. That’s much more doable.

Two, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jameson Taillon are coming off the injured list to start the series opener. The Yankees activated Taillon earlier today (Albert Abreu was sent down to clear a roster spot) and he’ll start tomorrow. He threw only three innings and 51 pitches in his Triple-A rehab start last week, so I’m guessing he’ll be on a pitch limit. Maybe the Yankees are planning to piggyback him with Domingo German or Luis Severino? We’ll see.

As for Ryu, he’s been out with neck tightness since Sept. 17th and will be activated to start tomorrow. Ryu was really, really bad before going on the injured list. He gave up 33 runs and eight homers in his eight starts (36.2 innings) prior to going on the shelf. The Blue Jays have to be hoping the 10-day break gets Ryu right. He’s been awful otherwise.

And three, the Blue Jays have some big time slumping hitters. Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and George Springer are a combined 17-for-83 (.205) with minimal power (.325 SLG) over the last week. Will they scare me when they’re at the plate? Absolutely, but all three are coming off a tough week. Springer in particular looks bad. I think he’s hurt (he's been banged up pretty much all year). Something’s not right there.

The sweep in Boston was exhilarating and incredibly important in the Wild Card race. The Wild Card race is not over though, and the Yankees have to avoid a letdown in Toronto. The Blue Jays are a damn good team and their offense can ruin a pitcher’s day in a hurry. One game at a time, but please escape with at least two wins. Anything less will create potentially major headaches next weekend.

4. The Yankees and 2021’s major awards. Less than one week remains in the 2021 regular season and the Yankees are in position to make the postseason. The Wild Card Game is nine innings of pure baseball stress, but it’s better than not making the postseason at all. Get in and you can win, especially when you have Gerrit Cole to start that win or go home game.

Every year around this time I like to take stock of the major awards races and figure out where the Yankees fit, if any. I don’t have an awards vote this year -- I’ve never had one and I won’t anytime soon because the New York BBWAA chapter is huge and the more senior writers get votes, which is fine with me -- but I am somehow only three years away from a Hall of Fame vote, and that’s pretty cool.

The Yankees have not had a major award winner since Aaron Judge was the unanimous Rookie of the Year in 2017. Before him, it was Alex Rodriguez as 2007 MVP. To win a major award, it feels like a Yankee needs to have a season so far beyond everyone else that he can’t be denied like, well, Judge in 2017 and A-Rod in 2007. Close races tend to go to non-Yankees.

Will a Yankee take home any hardware this season? They do have a serious candidate for one award, though it’s a tight race and I wouldn’t call him the favorite. Let’s dig into the races.

MVP

Shohei Ohtani is having a historic season that is redefining valuable. His value to the Angels transcends his MLB best +8.9 WAR because he fills two high-profile roles (middle of the order hitter and high-end starter) while occupying one roster spot. I think Ohtani is the easiest MVP call since … I don’t even know when. In a long time. This is once in a lifetime stuff.

Whenever a player becomes the overwhelming favorite for a major award, we wind up spending a few weeks pretending someone else is just as deserving. Remember when Andrew Benintendi was pushing Judge for Rookie of the Year? Or when Magglio Ordonez was just as deserving as A-Rod for MVP? Like that. Fatigue sets in and we seek out new storylines.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. would be a worthy MVP winner in most non-Ohtani seasons, but this is an Ohtani season. Vlad Jr.’s case boils down to “he might win the Triple Crown* with a postseason team,” which, well, sure, but he’s not leading any of the Triple Crown categories outright at the moment, and Toronto is no lock for the postseason, which pokes a hole in that case.

* Fun fact: There have been 10 Triple Crown winners since the BBWAA began voting on MVP in 1931, and four of the 10 did not win MVP. Chuck Klein lost to Carl Hubbell in 1933, Lou Gehrig lost to Mickey Cochrane in 1934, Ted Williams lost to Joe Gordon in 1942, and Williams lost to Joe DiMaggio in 1947. Great accomplishment, but not an automatic MVP accomplishment, historically.

Either way, I expect Ohtani and Guerrero to be No. 1 and No. 2 on all 30 MVP ballots in either order. One guy will win and the other will finish second. At this point, I think Marcus Semien is the overwhelming favorite to finish third. He’s hit 43 home runs as a middle infielder and leads all American League position players with +7.2 WAR. Yes, ahead of Vlad Jr. (+6.7 WAR).

Ohtani and Guerrero will be No. 1 and No. 2 and Semien’s a pretty good bet to be No. 3 in the MVP voting. Judge is in the next tier of MVP candidates, I believe. He’s there with Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Rafael Devers, Cedric Mullins, Matt Olson, Salvador Perez, and Jose Ramirez. That’s a good collection of names for the Nos. 4-11 spots on the 10-name MVP ballot.

Here’s where Judge ranks in various categories among the eight players I listed as next tier MVP candidates behind Guerrero, Ohtani, and Semien:

• AVG: .284 (3rd, Bogaerts and Mullins lead at .299)
• OBP: .370 (2nd, Olson leads at .376)
• SLG: .533 (5th, Ramirez leads at .548)
• wRC+: 146 (2nd, Olson leads at 149)
• HR: 36 (3rd, Perez leads with 46)
• RBI: 92 (5th, Perez leads with 115)
• WPA: +4.27 (1st by a lot, Ramirez is second at +3.40)
• WAR: +5.4 (5th, Correa leads at +6.9)

Judge’s numbers stack up very well. MVP is also a narrative award and Judge has a pretty good narrative. For starters, he’s dragging a largely underperforming offense to the postseason, and he’s played a bunch of center field because of roster inadequacies. Judge’s contributions have him leading the American League in championship probability added by a lot:

1. Aaron Judge: +3.07
2. Ryan Pressly: +2.53
3. Kendall Graveman: +2.50
4. Gerrit Cole: +2.31
5. Giancarlo Stanton: +2.24*

* That was a +1.24 CPA weekend for Stanton in Boston, by the way. L-O-L.

Not all voters will look at CPA. In fact, none might, but the stat shows how important Judge is to the Yankees. He is their best player, has been all season, and certainly was when they slogged through a 41-40 first half, and looked disinterested in playing beyond Game 162. The stats are good enough for MVP consideration and the narrative is there as well.

I think there’s a pretty good chance Judge will finish fourth in the voting behind Vlad Jr., Ohtani, and Semien. Mullins, Perez, and Ramirez have been amazing, but their MVP cases are hurt by playing on bad teams. Correa is the best player on a (soon-to-be) division winner, so he’ll get plenty of MVP support. Bogaerts, Devers, and Olson play for teams that have been in the race all year, boosting their cases.

I would be shocked if someone other than Vlad Jr. and Ohtani gets a first or second place vote. Judge’s realistic best case scenario is finishing third in the MVP voting, though even then I think Semien has a leg up. Seems to me Bogaerts, Correa, Devers, and Perez are Judge’s primary competition for fourth in the voting (the writers love love love Perez).

The MVP ballot is 10 names deep and there’s always down ballot weirdness, usually because a writer overrates a player on the team he covers. Kevin Pillar once got a tenth place vote, for example. Cole and Stanton are the Yankees’ best shot at down ballot votes, but I don’t see either as a serious MVP candidate, Stanton’s massive weekend in Boston notwithstanding. Decent chance Judge is the only Yankee to get MVP votes this season.

Cy Young

We miss a Cole vs. Robbie Ray showdown by one day this week. Cole starts Wednesday and Ray starts Thursday. That’s too bad. A head-to-head matchup to decide the Cy Young (not really, but you know what I mean) would’ve been a blast. Anyway, those two are the top two Cy Young candidates with a week left in the season. The comparison:

• IP: 175.1 Cole vs. 188 Ray
• ERA: 3.08 Cole vs. 2.68 Ray
• ERA+: 139 Cole vs. 163 Ray
• FIP: 2.83 Cole vs. 3.42 Ray
• DRA: 3.14 Cole vs. 3.77 Ray (adjusts for quality of competition)
• K%: 33.9% Cole vs. 32.5% Ray
• BB%: 5.9% Cole vs. 6.7% Ray
• WPA: +3.66 Cole vs. +3.60 Ray
• WAR: +5.8 Cole vs. +7.0 Ray

Cole has a big edge in FIP and DRA, which isn’t nothing, but everything else is either even or advantage Ray. Each guy only has one start remaining too. To take over the ERA lead, Cole would have to throw a nine-inning shutout Wednesday while Ray gives up six earned runs without recording an out Thursday. So yeah, Ray is going to win the ERA title, likely by a lot.

Unless Cole throws a masterpiece Wednesday (like another 129-pitch shutout) while Ray gets his brains beat in Thursday, and the voters fall in love with the narrative, I think Ray has to be considered the favorite for the Cy Young. Lance Lynn has struggled lately, taking him out of the mix, and others like Ohtani and Nathan Eovaldi are clearly a notch below Cole and Ray.

My guess is Cole and Ray are No. 1 and No. 2 on every ballot in either order. Behind them will be a hodgepodge of pitchers that include Eovaldi, Lynn, John Means, Carlos Rodon, and maybe even Jordan Montgomery. He’s currently eighth in the league with +3.9 WAR, you know. The Cy Young ballot is five names deep. Maybe Montgomery gets a fifth place vote from a New York writer. Maybe.

No reliever in the American League is having a Cy Young vote kinda season. Jonathan Loaisiga was at best a long shot candidate to get a vote, and the injury removed him from consideration. To me, Cole and Ray are a cut above. This is a two-horse race with Ray having the edge. Montgomery could get a stray vote or two, and that’s about it for the Yankees.

Rookie of the Year

The Yankees had the Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2016 (Gary Sanchez), the Rookie of the Year winner and sixth place finisher in 2017 (Judge and Montgomery), the Rookie of the Year runner-up and third place finisher in 2018 (Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres), and that’s it. No Rookie of the Year votes since, and it’s not like the Yankees have been snubbed. They had no candidates in 2019 or 2020.

That is again the case this season. Mike King exceeded the rookie service time limit last year, so he isn’t eligible. He would’ve been the Yankees’ best candidate given his 3.20 ERA (3.69 FIP) in 59 innings, but even that wouldn’t have been enough to win. It might have gotten him a third place vote though. Here are Yankees rookies by plate appearances/batters faced:

1. Albert Abreu: 153 (+0.0 WAR)
2. Luis Gil: 129 (+0.8 WAR)
3. Chris Gittens: 44 (-0.2 WAR)
4. Brooks Kriske: 43 (-0.8 WAR) (waived and lost to the Orioles)
5. Deivi Garcia: 38 (-0.2 WAR)
6. Clarke Schmidt: 38 (-0.3 WAR)
7. Estevan Florial: 25 (+0.3 WAR)
8. Stephen Ridings: 20 (+0.1 WAR)
9. Brody Koerner: 13 (+0.0 WAR)
10. Trey Amburgey: 4 (-0.1 WAR)
11. Hoy Jun Park: 1 (+0.0 WAR) (traded to the Pirates)

Yeah, no Rookie of the Year candidates. There are only three spots on the ballot and none of those guys will get even a third place vote. So it goes. It feels like the BBWAA decided Randy Arozarena won this award last October, so he’ll probably get it. Astros righty Luis Garcia is right there though and could steal it away. Wander Franco, Adolis Garcia, Alek Manoah, and Shane McClanahan are in the mix too.

Manager of the Year

Last year 15 of the 30 managers received at least one Manager of the Year vote. Aaron Boone was not among them. For an award where you don’t have to do much more than show up and spell your name correctly to get a vote, Boone is unlikely to get one again this year. His team may make the postseason, but they’ve underachieved overall, and managers of underachieving teams don’t get Manager of the Year votes.

Usually this award goes to the manager of the team that most exceeded expectations, though that team doesn’t seem to exist in the American League this year. I guess Scott Servais with the Mariners? He’ll probably get the votes usually reserved for Bob Melvin. I think Kevin Cash will win again. Regardless, I know what a Manager of the Year season looks like, and the Yankees and Boone aren’t having one.

Comeback Player of the Year

Corey Kluber’s injury takes him out of the running. Jameson Taillon has been almost perfectly league average (102 ERA- and 103 FIP-) and average is good enough to win some years if the story is compelling. The Yankees best Comeback Player of the Year candidate is Stanton. He’s been great after playing only 41 of 222 possible games from 2019-20.

Ultimately, this is Trey Mancini’s award. Giving it to anyone else is overthinking it and deviating from the spirit of the award. The guy missed last season with Stage 3 colon cancer. That’s more deserving of the award than a bunch of dudes who missed time with baseball injuries (Kluber, Stanton, Taillon, Yordan Alvarez, Mitch Haniger, Jed Lowrie, etc.). Mancini’s the guy. Easy call.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Damaso Marte. By request, the week’s random Yankee is a pitcher who was objectively bad in pinstripes, but was also a World Series hero. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Marte was very much a late bloomer. He originally signed with the Mariners as a 17-year-old international amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in Oct. 1992, and he made his MLB debut as a 24-year-old in June 1999. That didn’t go well (nine runs in 8.2 innings), and in Oct. 2000, Seattle dropped him from the 40-man roster and he became a free agent.

The Yankees signed Marte to a minor league contract a month later and put him in the bullpen full-time in 2001. He pitched well enough with Double-A Norwich (3.50 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 36 innings) that he became a trade chip. On June 13th, 2001, the Yankees traded Marte to the Pirates straight up for fellow random Yankee Enrique Wilson.

"We want to get left-handers into the organization," Pirates interim GM Roy Smith told Robert Dvorchak following the trade. "He has average to above-average velocity. He has a good enough arm. He's a little inconsistent. But he doesn't walk people, and he's not afraid to throw the ball over the plate. It's a good fit for us. We'll throw him into the mix and see what happens."

The Pirates called Marte up a few weeks after the trade and he wasn’t great (21 runs in 36.1 innings), though the 39 strikeouts and velocity were enough to generate trade interest from around the league. In late Spring Training 2002, Pittsburgh sent Marte to the White Sox with a minor league utility man (Ruddy Yan, who never made the big leagues) for righty Matt Guerrier. It was a swap of unestablished relievers.

With Chicago, Marte found a home, and served as a high leverage option from 2002-05. He had a 2.78 ERA with 281 strikeouts in 259 innings those years, spent some time in the closer’s role, and was part of the White Sox’s 2005 World Series championship team. Marte threw 1.2 innings and got the win in Game 3 against the Astros, which at the time was the longest World Series game in history (14 innings). It was his only appearance of the series.

The White Sox needed bench depth to protect against Joe Crede’s achy back going into 2006, so, during the 2005 Winter Meetings, they traded Marte back to the Pirates for utility man Rob Mackowiak. Marte was entering the final guaranteed year on his contract, plus he became expendable for Chicago following the emergence of fellow lefty Neal Cotts.

Marte was a solid high leverage reliever in his second stint with Pittsburgh, throwing 150.1 innings with a 3.23 ERA and 161 strikeouts. The Pirates were very bad in 2008 (finished 67-95) and they had two valuable trade commodities in Marte and outfielder Xavier Nady, who were both under control through 2009. There was no reason to keep either.

The 2008 Yankees missed the postseason but they were in the race just about the entire season. They weren’t eliminated until Game 158, and on the morning of July 26th, they were 57-45 and only two games out of the Wild Card spot, and three games out of first place in the AL East. They were in the race, but they needed a bat and they needed a lefty reliever.

Later that day Brian Cashman swung a six-player trade with the Pirates to bring Marte and Nady to the Yankees. The full trade:

• Yankees get: LHP Damaso Marte, OF Xavier Nady
• Pirates get: RHP Jeff Karstens, RHP Daniel McCutchen, RHP Ross Ohlendorf, OF Jose Tabata

"It was hard to give up the players we did. I like those players,” Cashman told the Associated Press following the trade. “The players we got back -- Marte and Nady -- both will hopefully contribute to the 2008 season and we have them for '09. I wouldn't have done it if it was rented for a few months.”

In Nady’s case, the Yankees bought into an 89-game BABIP fueled hot streak. He managed a .330/.383/.535 batting line (.363 BABIP) in 89 games with the Pirates before the trade, then hit .268/.320/.474 (.290 BABIP) in 59 games after the trade. From 2004-07, Nady authored a .273/.329/.455 (.306 BABIP) line, and that’s the Nady the Yankees received.

Marte, then 33, initially struggled with the Yankees (nine runs in his first 7.1 innings), though he settled in and allowed just two runs with 13 strikeouts in his final 11 innings. The Yankees were impressed enough that they tore up Marte’s $6M club option and gave him a new three-year contract worth $12M after the season.

"Early in the year we asked him probably to do more than he physically was capable of doing," then-manager Joe Girardi told the Associated Press following the new contract signing. "We signed him to a three-year deal because we wanted to keep him more than a year and, obviously, he would have been available on the free agent market after the 2009 season."

Going into 2009, Marte was expected to be a key part of Mariano Rivera’s setup crew, though he was never right early that season. He came down with an achy shoulder while with the Dominican Republic at the World Baseball Classic, and eventually landed on what was then called the disabled list with a sore shoulder in early May. Marte allowed nine runs in 5.1 innings prior to being sidelined.

"I feel weak,” Marte told Marc Carig about the injury. Cashman added: “It's a concern because he had a problem this spring and we haven't gotten past it. We're going to obviously do everything we possibly can. Unfortunately, we have to DL him midseason to rectify it now. But it's a concern.”

The injury shelved Marte until late August, and when he did return, he was rather effective. He surrendered five runs in eight innings, though four of the five runs came in one 0.1-inning disaster outing, and lefties were 3-for-25 (.120) against him. Marte’s velocity was down and he wasn’t missing as many bats (only five strikeouts in those 25 at-bats), but he was getting outs.

Despite finishing the season with a 9.45 ERA, Marte made the postseason roster, and he got off to an inauspicious start. He was brought in to face Twins lefties Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel in the 11th inning of ALDS Game 2, and gave up back-to-back singles. David Robertson was brought in to bail Marte out and eventually escaped the bases loaded, no outs jam (video).

From that point on, Marte was untouchable the rest of the postseason. Did not allow another baserunner as the Yankees won their 27th championship. He made seven appearances in the postseason following that ALDS Game 2 mess:

That World Series Game 6 outing was Marte's signature moment in pinstripes. The Phillies were down 7-3 and that was their last best chance to get back into the game. Two on with Utley, a borderline Hall of Famer at the height of his powers, and Howard, then still one of the game’s premier sluggers, coming up. That was their shot, and Marte struck Utley and Howard out on six total pitches to get the ball to Rivera. Here’s the video (Utley at-bat, Howard at-bat).

“It’s a different situation. Before it was the regular season, now it’s the World Series,” Marte told Tyler Kepner before the World Series when informed Howard was 0-for-3 with three strikeouts against him in his career. “I have to be careful because he’s a strong guy and he has a lot of power. It depends on the opportunity and the situation. We’ll see. I have a lot of confidence and I believe in myself.”

Following that first outing against the Twins in ALDS Game 2, Marte went 12 up, 12 down the rest of the postseason, all in high leverage situations (is there such a thing as a low leverage situation in the postseason?). The 2009 World Series win probability added leaderboard:

1. Hideki Matsui: +0.629
2. Cliff Lee: +0.592
3. Alex Rodriguez: +0.349
4. Johnny Damon: +0.325
5. Mariano Rivera: +0.256
6. Chase Utley: +0.217
7. CC Sabathia: +0.207
8. Pedro Feliz: +0.193
9. Jorge Posada: +0.108
10. Damaso Marte: +0.086

Considering he was a middle reliever who faced only eight batters in the series, finishing tenth in win probability is pretty incredible. That’s what happens when you get all eight batters out, and just about all of them are batting in high leverage situations. Marte held Utley and Howard to a combined 0-for-6 with four strikeouts in the World Series.

Marte still had another two seasons remaining on his contract, of course. He opened 2010 as the primary lefty in the bullpen, labored to a 4.08 ERA in 17.2 innings (he did hold lefties to a .146/.200/.268 batting line, however), then his shoulder gave out for good in July. Rest and rehab didn’t work, and Marte needed surgery on the shoulder that October.

“I have to make it better because it’s a lot of pain,” Marte told Chad Jennings. “Right now I feel comfortable because the doctor, he gave me (good news) for my arm. He told me, you’re getting better. Next year, I think I can pitch.”

Marte never did make it back to the big leagues. He appeared in one minor league rehab game in August 2011, allowing six runs in two-thirds of an inning in rookie ball. The Yankees didn’t activate him during the September roster expansion period, and they declined their $4M club option after the season, making the then-35-year-old Marte a free agent.

The 2010 shoulder injury effectively ended Marte’s career. He never signed with another team after the Yankees declined the club option, and he finished with a 3.48 ERA in 503.2 career innings. Marte didn’t play his first full MLB season until age 27, yet he hung around long enough to win two World Series rings (2005 White Sox and 2009 Yankees), sign over $21M worth of contracts, and reach 10 years of service time (i.e. full pension). Not bad.

With the Yankees, Marte pitched to a 6.02 ERA in 49.1 regular season innings, though he was rather effective against lefties (.168/.259/.295). Still, that’s really bad, and not what the Yankees expected when they traded for Marte, then gave him that three-year contract. Being a postseason and World Series hero cures a lot of ills though, and the Yankees would do it all again no questions asked. Now, can we get Damaso at Old Timers’ Day one of these years?

(Karstens, McCutchen, Ohlendorf, and Tabata all spent multiple seasons with the Pirates after the Marte/Nady trade. Karstens (+3.9 WAR) and Ohlendorf (+2.3 WAR) had some staying power, and Tabata (+1.9 WAR) looked like a potential All-Star at one point, then he just stopped hitting. Fortunately for him, the crash happened after signing a six-year, $15M extension.)

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Brett Gardner was asked about his future over the weekend and he gave a token non-answer. “I try not to get too far ahead of myself and worry about next week, next month, or next year,” Gardner told Dan Martin. He said something similar each of the last few years before announcing he wanted to continue playing after the season, so I assume he’s working on a similar timetable now. Gardner’s contract includes a $2.3M player option for 2022. If it were up to me, I’d move on from Gardner, but it’s not, so we’ll see what happens in a few weeks … And finally, shoutout to former Yankee Luis Cessa. He recently threw a “hidden” perfect game, and retired 27 straight batters spanning seven appearances earlier this month. The streak ended when Juan Soto took him deep. Soto will do that. Cessa has a 1.59 ERA (2.68 FIP) with 20 strikeouts and just one walk in 22.2 innings with the Reds.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)