August 3rd, 2021: Cole, Offense, Heaney, German, Holmes, Trades, Soto

UPDATE: Jon Heyman reports Gerrit Cole is fully vaccinated and there's "a bit of hope" his positive test is a false positive. That would be wonderful. At least he's vaccinated and thus less likely to experience severe symptoms and spread the virus.

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Four-run lead against the Angels, five-run lead against the Astros, four-run lead against the Red Sox. Close out those extremely winnable games and the Yankees are knocking on the door in the AL East race instead of fighting for the second Wild Card spot. Those late-inning bullpen meltdowns will sink your season. On the bright side, the Yankees improved their postseason odds more than any other team at the trade deadline, so that’s cool. The Yankees are on pace to go 86-76 with 57 games remaining. To today’s thoughts.

1. Weekend observations. The Yankees finished a sweep! It took the Marlins kicking the ball around in the late innings Sunday, and the Yankees atoned by getting wiped out by the Orioles last night, but a sweep is a sweep. The Yankees are now 5-10 and have been outscored 87-54 when going for a sweep this season. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Cole tests positive for COVID

Following last night’s loss to the Orioles, Aaron Boone announced Gerrit Cole has tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss tonight’s start. Boone did not say whether Cole is showing symptoms, but hopefully they’re mild if he is. "Gerrit will not be pitching tomorrow. He's actually tested positive for COVID … As for now, he is the only one (to test positive),” Boone said.

In the short-term, the Yankees will start Nestor Cortes in Cole’s place tonight. He’ll be on an extra day of rest and that’s fine. An easy fill-in. In the medium-term, they’re going to have to find a spot starter for Thursday’s game against the Mariners. That’s Domingo German’s spot and he’s on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. Cortes was going to replace German. Now he’ll replace Cole.

Just based on the way these things have gone for the Yankees and around the league in general, there are more positives coming. There have been a few instances of one player and one player only testing positive, but they’re rare. The Yankees were just in close quarters in the plane and all that on the road trip. In all likelihood there are more positives coming. It sucks.

The on-field impact is pretty enormous. The Yankees just lost their ace in the middle of a postseason race for who knows how long. If Cole’s not vaccinated, he has to quarantine a minimum of 10 days, so he’ll miss at least two starts. If he is vaccinated, he could return sooner, but it’ll still be a few days. Definitely not in time to make that start Thursday. The Yankees are suddenly short starters.

Hopefully Cole and his family are okay and hopefully the outbreak isn’t an outbreak, and this is an isolated case. If it’s not, then the Yankees will deal with it again. They don’t have a choice. It’s just one thing after another this year. The Yankees were among the very first teams to hit the 85% vaccination threshold and now they’re looking at a potential third breakout.

“It definitely sucks. It’s been a tough year. This with Cole, it’s definitely a low blow there. It’s not been easy at all,” Gary Sanchez said after last night’s game. “But that being said, we’ve got to find a way to turn the page and keep fighting. We understand the task we have and the time is to keep moving forward and do the best we can out there.”

Still waiting on the offense

Yankees not named Anthony Rizzo have hit two home runs in the last 11 games. The Yankees have not scored more than four runs in a game since the Phillies series. They brought in Rizzo and Joey Gallo and that’s great, but getting on track was always going to require the guys on the roster doing more, and it’s just not happening. Since the All-Star break:

• Aaron Judge: .240/.321/.240 (66 wRC+)
• DJ LeMahieu: .208/.271/.264 (51 wRC+)
• Gary Sanchez: .163/.294/.372 (87 wRC+)
• Giancarlo Stanton: .164/.292/.255 (61 wRC+)

LeMahieu is having close to a disaster season. Year 1 of a six-year contract and he’s gone from .336/.385/.536 (146 wRC+) his first two years as a Yankee to .261/.341/.353 (96 wRC+) this year. The 80-point wRC+ drop since last year is the largest in baseball. LeMahieu’s had over 400 plate appearances to get it together and he hasn’t. It’s time for someone else to lead off and get more at-bats than everyone else.

Rizzo’s been great. The rest of the Yankees have not. They were shut down by Jorge Lopez last night. Lopez went into the game with a 6.19 ERA (4.98 FIP) and a .303/.380/.486 opponent’s batting line. That dude sucks out loud and the Yankees didn’t get a hit until the sixth inning. Lopez faced 25 batters and five hit the ball out of the infield.

“Unfortunately we were kind of held down,” Boone said after the game last night. “The Orioles took it to us tonight in every way. It kind of spoils that homecoming a little bit. I know the guys were excited.”

If you had told me before the season the Yankees would have a team 116 ERA+ on Aug. 3rd, I would have asked what the magic number is. Instead, the Yankees are on the outside of the postseason picture looking in because they’re scoring 4.05 runs per game, sixth fewest in MLB and by far the fewest among American League contenders (the Athletics are next at 4.38).

The Yankees are falling way short of expectations this year and the majority of blame lies on the offense. Every time you think the offense or an individual hitter is coming alive, they sink right back down. The names on the roster say the offense should be better than it is but it’s just not. The Yankees shot their shot at the trade deadline with Gallo and Rizzo, so this is the group they have to rely on the rest of the season. As good as Gallo and Rizzo are, two players probably are not enough to save this offense. The guys who were already here have to be better.

Heaney debuts, German injured

Ugh, I can’t believe the stupid Yankees are taking Cortes out of the rotation to make room for Andrew Heanaaaaand Domingo German’s hurt. Baseball has a way of making depth disappear quick, eh? Heaney made his Yankees debut last night and got bombed, surrendering four solo homers (in the span of six batters!) in four innings. He’ll be better next time (I think?).

“Usually I say solo homers don’t beat you, but you give up four of them in four innings, that’s probably going to do it,” Heaney said after the game. “It was just frustrating to put the team in a hole like that and not really give us a chance. I wish I could have done better.”

German has a low-grade rotator cuff strain and will be shut down 7-10 days, the Yankees say. He said he felt fine physically during his last start in Miami. Pinch-hitting with the bases loaded in the top of the fifth inning was strategic, and it wasn’t until later that night and the next day that German had discomfort. It did bother him after his last start, however, the near no-hitter in Boston.

“He had a little shoulder soreness after his start, and then (Saturday) night when he was going home he felt it a little bit, a little bit (Sunday) morning. So we’ll see,” Boone told Randy Miller over the weekend. “... I don’t want to speculate too much on it, but it has been in there enough to where he said something. So we’ll find out this week.”

It’s impossible to know whether German’s injury is the result of him exerting himself too much during the no-hit bid, or him throwing 97 innings this season after throwing zero last season, or just baseball being baseball. It’s probably some combination of that and more. Pitchers get hurt. It’s what they do and it’s why you need depth.

Did the Yankees trade for Heaney in response to German having discomfort following his start against the Red Sox? Yeah I guess it’s possible, though I think they were adding another starter no matter what. They needed the depth with Corey Kluber and Luis Severino hurt, and Deivi Garcia unplayable. Either way, it’s a good thing they have Heaney now, eh? Last night's game notwithstanding, of course.

The Yankees are seven games into a 17 games in 17 days stretch (and 29 games in 29 days with an off-day and a doubleheader) and I’m certain they wanted to use Cortes as a spot starter to give everyone extra rest one or twice the next few weeks. Now he’s back in the rotation to replace Cole and the Yankees have to figure out how to replace German. Good grief.

He gets grounds balls, Holmes

Clay Holmes reminds me of someone physically (his face, body type, etc.) but I can’t put my finger on who. It’s been driving me nuts. Anyway, Holmes is off to a fine start as a Yankee. In three appearances he’s faced 12 batters: eight ground outs, two strikeouts, one fly out, one line drive single. Good arm too. Everything he throws is hard and nothing is straight.

“For Clay to come back out after yesterday’s outing and be really pitch efficient was big,” Boone told Matthew Roberson after Holmes threw 22 pitches in 1.2 innings Sunday. “Joely (Rodriguez) comes in and blows up a bat on the first pitch. We feel like those two guys are going to be important pieces of our bullpen. It worked out perfect.”

When the Yankees made the trade, I figured they had an adjustment in mind for Holmes only because they seem to have an adjustment in mind for every pitcher they acquire these days. It turns out the adjustment happened a few weeks ago. Holmes was throwing his sinker, cutter, and curveball at equal rates in April and May. Lately he’s been heavy with the sinker:

When you have a sinker like his, why not throw it more? Holmes is averaging close to 96 mph with the sinker this year and it moves all over the place. Throwing one pitch over and over isn’t always the best idea, but the sinker is a good pitch to do it with. Case in point: Zack Britton. I’m not saying Holmes has a (peak) Britton sinker, but it looks like a really good pitch.

If Albert Abreu is sent down when Wandy Peralta returns, the Yankees will have three righties in their eight-man bullpen: Holmes, Chad Green, and Jonathan Loaisiga. There’s a bit of an imbalance there, and with Green and Loaisiga locked into high-leverage roles, Holmes will be asked to soak up a lot of work against those righty “lanes” in the middle innings.

I try not to get excited about out-of-nowhere relievers because you can never trust these dudes. One day they look like the next shutdown closer and the next they’re on the waiver wire. Holmes has pitched well in his first week as a Yankee, that’s a fact, and I’m intrigued by the heavy sinker. The 4.93 ERA he had with the Pirates undersells his arm talent.

Looming roster moves

The Yankees have a few roster moves coming today. Cole is going on the COVID list and Gio Urshela is going on the 10-day injured list with a hamstring strain. Boone said so after the game last night. Glad the Yankees played four games shorthanded before putting Gio on the injured list. At least they can backdate it a few days, I guess.

“He’s actually doing pretty well,” Boone said when asked about Urshela after last night’s game. “We can backdate it a couple of days. He’ll continue to ramp up here in the next several days and hopefully will just be another week or eight days or so.”

Signs point to Luis Gil coming up today. He got rocked in his last start (six runs in 1.1 innings) and hasn’t pitched well in Triple-A (5.64 ERA and 5.90 FIP in 30.1 innings), but he can give the Yankees length and he’s on the 40-man, so he’s coming up. It’s either him, the mess that is Deivi Garcia, or Brooks Kriske or Nick Nelson. The Yankees have no appealing options.

Although Urshela is going on the injured list, I think the Yankees will replace him with a pitcher, because they need the arms right now. I expect Wandy Peralta to be activated today to fill the other spot. He’s made two minor league rehab appearances (struck out all three batters he faced Saturday) and I’m not sure he needs a third.

Players on the COVID list don’t count against the 40-man roster, so Peralta would step into Cole’s spot, which makes life easy. The Yankees could also send Albert Abreu down today after he threw two innings last night. Would they bring in three new pitchers today? Cole, Peralta, and then either Kriske or Nelson as well? I wouldn’t rule it out.

Also, Clint Frazier might be a 60-day injured list candidate at this point. He’s been on the injured list 32 days already and Boone said he might begin a rehab assignment next week. Stretching Clint’s rehab work out another 28 days to cover the 60-day injured list stint seems very doable. In that case, the Yankees could call up a non-40-man player like Adam Warren or Andrew Velasquez. We’ll see.

In the span of five days the Yankees went from having six starters (Cole, Cortes, German, Heaney, Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon) for five spots to having four healthy starters and scrambling for pitching. I hate this stupid sport sometimes. One way or the other, the Yankees have roster moves coming today. Cole and Gio are out and at least two others are coming in.

(My guess is the Yankees are bringing Gil up for long relief tonight, and if he's not needed, they'll start him Thursday and hope for the best.)

2. Post-trade deadline moves. The trade deadline has come and gone, and even though MLB eliminated waiver trades a few years ago, there are still ways teams can improve in August and September. It’s not easy and you won’t be able to make impactful moves, but you can still make moves. There are two ways to do it now:

1) Trades! Non-40-man roster players can still be traded. The only catch is the player must be on a minor league contract as opposed to a Major League contract that has been outrighted to the minors. As an example, Phillies utility man Scott Kingery can’t be traded. He’s in the middle of a six-year, $24M contract and was outrighted off the 40-man roster earlier this year. Someone like Andrew Velasquez can be traded though. He’s on a straight minor league deal. (The Blue Jays traded John Axford to the Brewers yesterday. Yes, John Axford is still pitching.)

2) Waivers. In 2019, the first year without waiver trades, teams made salary dump “trades” by coordinating waiver claims. “You put this guy on waivers and we’ll claim him and his contract,” basically. That’s how the Yankees landed Cory Gearrin. The Mariners were out of it and Gearrin was an impending free agent owed another $300,000 or so, and the Yankees said we’ll take him if you put him on waivers. They got a reliever for the stretch run and Seattle saved $300,000 in real money rather than carry a player who had no future with the organization.

There were nine non-40-man roster player trades in Aug. 2019, including the Yankees sending Ryan McBroom to the Royals and getting Joe Mantiply from the Reds. There were 22 waiver claims as well, far more than the typical month. Those 22 claims involved a few recognizable names too. Freddy Galvis, Kevin Gausman, and Billy Hamilton were all salary dump claims that month.

The postseason eligibility deadline remains (players must be in the organization at 11:59pm ET on Aug. 31st to be postseason-eligible, no exceptions) though there are still ways to add players after the trade deadline. The Yankees were pretty active on the non-40-man trade/waiver market in 2019 and they could be again this year. Reinforcing the roster never stops.

Who could the Yankees potentially target this month? Here are a few non-40-man roster players sitting in Triple-A who could appeal to them, similar to Mantiply in 2019:

• Catchers: Juan Centeno (Tigers), Meibrys Viloria (Royals)
• Infielders: Christian Colon (Blue Jays), Drew Jackson (Mets)
• Outfielders: Delino DeShields Jr. (Rangers), Trayce Thompson (Cubs)
• Pitchers: Andrew Albers (Twins), Drew Hutchison (Tigers), Yefry Ramirez (Dodgers)

The non-40-man guy on a minor league contract market isn’t exactly robust. The Yankees had interest in DeShields earlier this season, though they’re in good shape in the outfield right now. Colon and Jackson have middle infield chops (Jackson moreso) and that’s never a bad place to load up. A guy like Albers or Hutchison would be an emergency innings candidate.

If the Yankees bring in any outside help this month, I think it’s more likely they will do so with a salary dump via waivers like Gearrin in 2019. And, of course, they have limited wiggle room under the $210M luxury tax threshold. They have somewhere between $2.4M (per Cot’s) and $3.2M (per FanGraphs) to spend, and must leave room for injury call ups and whatnot.

Pitching (as always) and the middle infield (because Tyler Wade isn’t someone who stops you from looking for an upgrade) are the obvious areas to target in a potential salary dump waiver claim. Here are a few possible targets should the Yankees go down this road.

IF Hanser Alberto, Royals

2021 stats: .254/.274/.391 (77 wRC+) in 178 PA
Remaining salary: $495,000

The 28-year-old Alberto spent two months with the Yankees between waiver claims during the 2018-19 offseason. He hasn’t hit at all this year, though his career splits suggest he could have some usefulness as a righty bench bat:

• Career vs. RHP: .241/.265/.337 (58 wRC+)
• Career vs. LHP: .329/.348/.449 (110 wRC+)

Alberto has experience at the three non-first base infield positions. It’s basically the Wade skill set, except as a righty hitter with less speed. The Royals have a young middle infield prospect (Lucius Fox) in Triple-A who could take Alberto’s spot, so a salary dump waiver claim would free up cash and free up playing time for Fox (he’s been up and down this year).

OF Asdrubal Cabrera, Diamondbacks

2021 stats: .249/.344/.406 (103 wRC+) in 253 PA
Remaining salary: $525,000

Cabrera went down with a hamstring injury last month and didn’t return until right before the trade deadline, and I assume that cut into whatever little trade value he had. The D’Backs were in salary dump mode at the deadline and I’m certain they’d give away Cabrera at this point. The hamstring has been bothering him a while and he stopped hitting about two months ago, plus he can (or should) only play first and third bases at this point. Not much positional flexibility here.

RHP Steve Cishek, Angels

2021 stats: 3.80 ERA (3.73 FIP) in 45 IP
Remaining salary: $300,000

The Yankees are suddenly all-in on ground ball relievers and Cishek, 35, is sporting a 52.7% ground ball rate this year. Also, he’s held opponents to an 83.3 mph average exit velocity, one of the lowest marks in baseball, and he’s historically shut down righties. Not counting up and down arm Albert Abreu, the Yankees only have three righties in the bullpen (Chad Green, Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga), so Cishek would give them more balance. Yankees or otherwise, I’m certain Cishek will move in a waiver claim at some point this month as the Angels continue to fall out of the race.

RHP Alex Cobb, Angels

2021 stats: 3.82 ERA (2.62 FIP) in 77.2 IP
Remaining salary: $1.3M

Andy Martino says the Yankees had interest in Cobb at the trade deadline, and only settled on Andrew Heaney after their other targets fell through. Cobb fits their recent preferred profile as a sinker/ground ball guy, and he’s had an unsustainably low home run rate this season. It’s 0.35 HR/9 (6.5 HR/FB%) this year after 1.70 HR/9 (19.5 HR/FB%) from 2018-20. There’s some home run luck behind that shiny ERA and FIP.

The Orioles are paying the bulk of Cobb’s salary this season but the Angels still owe him $1.3M. That won’t work under the luxury tax plan, so the Yankees would have to get creative. Could they convince the Angels to release Cobb and eat the money so they could then sign him as a free agent for the prorated league minimum (he’d have to be onboard with that as well)? If yes, the Yankees could send Anaheim a non-40-man prospect(s) for a player to be named later to complete the “trade.”

At this point the Yankees just need someone to give innings while Gerrit Cole and Domingo German are sidelined, and Corey Kluber and Luis Severino work their way back. The Angels have shifted into youth movement mode and may be more willing to move Cobb now than they were before the trade deadline, a whole four days ago. For the Yankees, it’s worth asking.

UTIL Charlie Culberson, Rangers

2021 stats: .237/.292/.366 (80 wRC+) in 206 PA
Remaining salary: $450,000

A few years back the 32-year-old Culberson put together an out of nowhere .270/.326/.466 (108 wRC+) batting line in over 300 plate appearances with the Braves, and he hasn’t hit a lick since. He’s a defense-first utility guy who has played all over the infield and even a little outfield too. As bad as Wade has been this year, replacing him with Culberson doesn’t accomplish much. They are the same player, except Culberson is a righty and older and more expensive. If injuries mound and the Yankees get desperate, then sure. Otherwise meh.

RHP Matt Harvey, Orioles

2021 stats: 6.20 ERA (4.24 FIP) in 94.1 IP
Remaining salary: $300,000

Harvey has pitched well since the All-Star break (career best 18.1 innings scoreless streak) but don’t let that fool you. He’s made his last three starts against the punchless Royals, Nationals, and Tigers. In the 18 starts prior to that, Harvey had a 7.70 ERA (4.71 FIP) with mediocre strikeout (16.7%), walk (7.1%), and ground ball (41.8%) rates. A contender does not have this guy on their pitching staff. Sometimes you get desperate though, and the injuries are mounting. The Yankees are an injury or two away from getting Harvey desperate.

UTIL Brock Holt, Rangers

2021 stats: .204/.286/.298 (65 wRC+) in 203 PA
Remaining salary: $525,000

A recognizable name and former Red Sox player, so Holt jumps on the radar automatically. He hasn’t hit at all the last two seasons (.207/.285/.290 and 61 wRC+) and he’s a four corners guy at this point. First, third, left, and right only, because at age 33, he’s no longer mobile enough to play up the middle. Also, that $525,000 is pretty steep under the luxury tax plan. The Yankees could bring him in and send Wade to Triple-A, but would we even consider Holt if he never played for the Red Sox? I doubt it.

I should note the remaining salary drops with each passing day. Holt is owed about $525,000 right now. In a few days and weeks, it’ll be less. These salary dump waiver claims are a tough needle to thread. The player has to be worth acquiring but also cheap enough to make the luxury tax plan work, and not so attractive that another team claims him ahead of the Yankees. I’m not sure the Yankees will be active here unless the injuries really mount. They did their heavy lifting at the trade deadline and will ride the current roster out.

3. Looking ahead to Soto. Since winning the 2019 World Series, the Nationals are 75-90, the eighth worst record in baseball, and they sold at the trade deadline. Max Scherzer and Trea Turner are Dodgers, Daniel Hudson is a Padre, and Yan Gomes and Josh Harrison are Athletics. Painful moves for GM Mike Rizzo, I’m sure, but necessary moves.

“When I took a step back and made that look, I didn’t see a path to be a World Series-caliber team this year,” Rizzo told Jesse Dougherty after the deadline. “So I felt it was time for us to take a step sideways, to allow us to take a step forward and get back to where we’re supposed to be, which is a championship-caliber organization.”

The Nationals now look headed for a down period. Injuries have limited Stephen Strasburg to 26.2 innings since he signed his seven-year, $245M contract (imagine if Gerrit Cole had gone to another team and the Yankees signed Strasburg instead? yeesh) and they had the worst farm system in baseball coming into the season according to Baseball America (subs. req’d). That is not a recipe for a quick turnaround.

The only long-term building blocks on Washington’s MLB roster are Josiah Gray (part of the Scherzer/Turner trade), maybe Carter Kieboom and Victor Robles, and of course Juan Soto. Soto is still only 22 and he’s been historically great in his career to date. His ranks among players with at least 1,500 plate appearances through their age 22 season:

• AVG: .296 (30th, tied with Mickey Mantle)
• OBP: .418 (6th behind Jimmie Foxx, Joe Kelley, John McGraw, Mel Ott, and Ted Williams)
• SLG: .545 (6th behind Foxx, Ott, Williams, Eddie Mathews, and Mike Trout)
• OPS+: 155 (behind Foxx, Williams, Trout, and Ty Cobb)

Just getting 1,500 plate appearances through age 22 is impressive. Only 79 players in history have done it. Soto is on the path to all-time greatness. He’s still very early in his career and has a very long way to go before he enters the all-time great conversation, but that’s the kind of start he’s had to his career. Even at 22, it’s already clear this is a once in a generation hitting talent.

Soto will become a free agent after 2024, so the Nationals have him long-term, but I’m not sure they’ll be competitive again by then. The MLB roster is thin and the farm system won’t provide much impact talent the next few years. They could paper over their deficiencies with money, though I’m not sure it’s possible to spend this team back into contention anytime soon.

The Nationals have three options with Soto:

• Sign him to a long-term deal. The Fernando Tatis Jr. contract provides framework, though Soto is a year closer to free agency now than Tatis was when he signed.
• Trade him for a Godfather package. I can’t even begin to comprehend what it would take to pry Soto with three years of control away from Washington this offseason.
• Do nothing. Kick the can down the road, basically. Hope you get back into contention before Soto becomes a free agent.

The Nationals have money and maybe they’ll just give Soto a lifetime contract. That’s what I’d do. This is the same team that let Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon walk though, and all that money they deferred over the years is coming due. They’re going to be paying Scherzer, Daniel Murphy, Rafael Soriano, Jayson Werth, Matt Wieters, and a bunch others the next few years. (Strasburg even has some deferrals coming to him soon from his last contract.)

Because of all that, I’m already dreaming about Soto wearing pinstripes, and I don’t mean when he becomes a free agent in four years. I mean sooner -- much sooner -- via trade. Preferably before Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge become free agents next offseason, so the Yankees could simply let them walk while knowing they have Soto to anchor the lineup and the outfield going forward.

I honestly have no idea what a Soto trade would even look like. Three years of a 23-year-old super duper star? Those guys never get traded. These are the two best (only) recent examples:

• Miguel Cabrera: Traded with Dontrelle Willis (and the three years and $29M remaining on his contract) for two top 15 global prospects (Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller) and four top 20 team prospects (Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo, and Dallas Trahern).
• Josh Donaldson: Traded for four years of a young MLB player (Brett Lawrie), a fringe top 100 prospect (Franklin Barreto), and two top 10 team prospects (Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin).

Cabrera was traded two years before free agency and Donaldson four years before free agency. Cabrera is the more appropriate player comparison to Soto because he was only 24 at the time of his trade and it was clear he was a generational type of hitter. Donaldson had received MVP votes the previous two years, but was already 28 at the time of the trade. He was a regular old star and not a young superstar.

Split the middle of those two packages and you get what, a young MLB player plus a top 15 global prospect plus a few other top 20 team prospects for Soto? For the Yankees, that would mean something like Gleyber Torres, Jasson Dominguez, and then others from the middle of the farm system (Yoendrys Gomez and Ken Waldichuk types).

If I were the Nationals, I’d want way more than that for Soto. Torres is in Year 2 of a downward trend and Dominguez, as talented as he is, is an 18-year-old kid in the low minors. I’m gonna need a lot more to part with my homegrown 22-year-old superstar who is three years away from free agency. The Yankees would do that trade in a second. Washington says no.

Soto is so good and so young and under control so long that the Yankees should put everyone on the table to get him. Dominguez’s absolute best case scenario is Soto, and the chances he’s that good are like 0.01%. Maybe even lower, and they’re 0% for being that good while Cole is in his prime. The timetable matters. The more you align your players’ peaks, the better your chances at a championship.

I don’t expect the Nationals to entertain trade offers for Soto anytime soon. They’ll approach him about an extension before considering trades, even if it’s just a “well, we tried to sign him” thing (like their extension offers to Harper, Rendon, and Turner). Washington has spent huge on pitching in recent years and it won them a World Series. They’ve yet to break the bank on a hitter though.

If Soto ever becomes available in a trade, the Yankees should be all-in at any price (there’s not a player in the organization I’d make off-limits) and then sign him to a lifetime contract. Do that and you will never regret it. Soto is a historically great player and an easy to love superstar who is a marketing department’s dream. He is a franchise player in every way and the Yankees should always be in on those types.

Like I said earlier, I don’t expect the Nationals to consider trading Soto anytime soon, but I’m already obsessing over the possibility. Washington is bad now and it looks like they’ll be bad for the foreseeable future, and they may not contend before Soto hits free agency. There’s a perfect storm brewing. A trade may seem unlikely, but things are beginning to fall into place.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Wilson Betemit. This week’s random Yankee comes by request and is a player who was involved in one of the most lopsided trades in recent franchise history (all of franchise history, really). Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Betemit grew up in the Dominican Republic and signed with the Braves as an amateur during the Wild West days of international free agency, when players would lie about their age to seem younger and teams would lie about the player’s age to sign him before he turned 16 (MLB cleaned that up a few years ago). Betemit signed on July 28th, 1996. MLB later determined he was 14 years old at the time.

“There were a whole lot of illegalities involved in Wilson’s contract. Wilson was taken advantage of,” Scott Shapiro, Betemit’s agent, told the Associated Press in Feb. 2000. The Braves paid a $100,000 fine and were banned from signing Dominican players for six months. (The Dodgers were hit with similar penalties for signing Adrian Beltre as an underage player one year prior.)

Betemit had a breakout season as a 17-year-old in 1999, hitting .320/.383/.463 with five homers in 67 rookie ball games. He and Shapiro sued the Braves after the season, arguing his contract should be voided because he signed underage. Betemit wanted to become a free agent and land a big payday after his breakout seson. The lawsuit didn’t go anywhere though, and Betemit remained with Atlanta.

Baseball America ranked Betemit as one of the top 100 prospects in the game every year from 2000-03 (he was their No. 8 prospect between Joe Mauer and random Yankee Drew Henson in 2002) and he made his MLB debut as a 19-year-old on Sept. 18th, 2001. He went 0-for-3 in limited action that month. Here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (sub. req’d) in 2002:

Betemit is a natural baseball player and a budding five-tool talent who's still maturing. His body will get stronger, which should enable him to hit for power from both sides of the plate. He hits to all fields with his line-drive stroke. He has outstanding athleticism, shown by the Ozzie Smith-style flip he sometimes makes when taking the field. Betemit also has slightly above-average speed that should allow him to steal 15 bases a year. Defensively, he has good range, a strong arm and soft hands. He thrives on challenges and raises his game to the level of the competition.

Betemit spun his wheels in Triple-A the next three seasons (.262/.330/.418 in 325 games) and did not return to the big leagues until May 2004. He went 8-for-47 (.170) as a depth infielder that year, then hit .305/.359/.435 with four home runs in 274 plate appearances as a 23-year-old in 2005. It appeared Betemit had finally arrived and would be a key contributor for Atlanta.

The Braves started very poorly in 2006 and were out of the race at the trade deadline. Betemit was playing well, hitting .281/.344/.497 with nine home runs in 209 plate appearances as their super utility infielder, yet Atlanta decided he was most valuable to them as a trade chip because he was stuck behind Marcus Giles, Chipper Jones, and Edgar Renteria on the infield. Betemit was sent to the Dodgers at the deadline for reliever Pedro Baez and utility man Willy Aybar.

“We think he is one of the best young players in the game,” Dodgers then-GM Ned Colletti told Steve Springer following the trade. “He can also play short and second. He’s somebody we are going to have around for a while.”

Betemit took over as the Dodgers third baseman and it went okay. He hit .241/.306/.437 with nine homers in 55 games after the trade, then he rebounded nicely in 2007. Betemit put up a .231/.359/.474 batting line with 10 home runs in 192 plate appearances with Los Angeles that year. Alas, the Dodgers didn’t like the low batting average, and he lost playing time.

The Yankees, meanwhile, started 21-29 in 2007 despite Alex Rodriguez’s heroics, yet they were able to get their record to 57-49 on trade deadline day. A postseason spot was within reach but the team was cycling through utility infielders (Miguel Cairo, Albert Gonzalez, etc.), and Brian Cashman also needed to take Scott Proctor away from Joe Torre.

Torre notoriously overworked his trusted relievers -- Proctor pitched 52 times in the team’s first 103 games in 2007 -- and Proctor’s effectiveness waned. He allowed 10 runs and put 36 men on base in a 17-inning span prior to the trade deadline, yet Torre kept running him out there. On July 31st, 2007, Cashman sent Proctor to the Dodgers for Betemit in a 1-for-1 trade.

“There are certain guys in my system right now that I have people telling me could replace Scott Proctor,” Cashman told Tyler Kepner after the trade, referring to Joba Chamberlain. “And if that’s the case, that’s what made me consider the opportunity for Wilson Betemit. We have needs, there’s no doubt about that. But there’s a belief that some of those needs might very well be met from within.”

Betemit, then only 25, wasn’t far removed from being a top prospect, and he was a switch-hitter with power. It was a smart gamble for the Yankees. And on Aug. 2nd, Betemit hit a three-run home run in his first at-bat as a Yankee, and received a curtain call. Here’s video. The Yankees gave up eight runs in the top of the second inning that game, then scored eight runs in the bottom half.

"One of a kind, that's for sure. That was a long inning,” A-Rod told ESPN about the back-to-back eight-run half-innings. Betemit’s homer was part of the eight-run bottom of the second inning, though the Yankees eventually lost the game 13-9. Here’s the box score. Betemit was the 12th player in the Expansion Era (1961 to present) to go deep in his first at-bat as a Yankee.

The home run earned Betemit another start two days later, this time at first base, and he went 3-for-4 and drove in three runs. A few days later he hit another home run, and a few days after that he drove in four runs. Betemit didn’t play often -- he started nine of the team’s first 19 games after the trade -- but he produced. 9-for-32 (.281) with three homers in those 19 games.

“I give Cash a lot of credit, because during this whole thing leading up to the end of July, you still have to evaluate,” Torre told Kepner about trading Proctor for Betemit, then replacing Proctor with Chamberlain. “It’s not easy, especially in this town, to give the appearance of not doing anything and still helping yourself.”

Because the Yankees were in the postseason race and had a star-laden infield (A-Rod, Derek Jeter, and Robinson Cano), Betemit didn’t play much down the stretch. He started only 11 of the team’s final 37 games (three of the 11 starts came in the final four games, after the Yankees clinched) and went 11-for-53 (.208) with two home runs during that time.

All told, Betemit authored a .226/.278/.417 batting line with four homers in 91 plate appearances spread across 37 games following the trade, and he played all four infield positions as well as some left field. He was on the postseason roster that year, though Betemit did not play at all in the four-game ALCS loss to Cleveland and CC Sabathia.

The Yankees and Betemit avoided arbitration with a one-year contract worth $1.165M after the season, and he was their backup plan everywhere. If A-Rod left as a free agent, Betemit would have played third. If they couldn’t bring in a defensive caddy for Jason Giambi, Betemit would have played first. He was also going to back up the middle infield.

Eventually the Yankees re-signed Rodriguez and they brought in Morgan Ensberg to compete with Betemit and random Yankee Shelley Duncan at first base. Betemit had a horrible Spring Training (9-for-54 with 17 strikeouts), so bad that the Yankees sent him to the eye doctor and had him fitted for new contacts.

“There were balls right here, and I was swinging right here,” Betemit told Kepner, holding his hands a few inches apart. “That’s why I have to go to the doctor to see what’s going on. I strike out and I know that’s not me. I’m better than that.”

Betemit went 2-for-13 with seven strikeouts to begin the season, then was placed on what was then called the disabled list with a corneal ulcer in both eyes. A-Rod went down with a leg injury early in the season and the Yankees used Ensberg at third base with Gonzalez as their backup infielder while Betemit was sidelined and ineffective.

In early May, Betemit returned with new glasses, and went 10-for-33 (.303) with three homers and only five strikeouts in his first 10 games. From there he settled in as a serviceable but seldom used utility infielder. Betemit started only 26 of the team’s final 102 games, and finished 2008 with a .265/.289/.429 line with six homers in only 198 plate appearances.

(On May 10th, 2008, Betemit got picked off first base by Kenny Rogers, which gave Rogers the career pickoffs record with 92. Older pickoff data isn’t reliable though and that number is disputed. Hall of Famer Steve Carlton is believed to be the true pickoff king with 144.)

The Yankees missed the postseason in 2008 and were moving into a new ballpark in 2009, and they intended to put a contender on the field. They spent huge on three free agents (Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira) and also bought low on Nick Swisher in a trade with the White Sox. Betemit was part of the package sent to Chicago. The full Nov. 13th, 2008 trade:

• Yankees get: OF Nick Swisher, RHP Kanekoa Texeira
• White Sox get: IF Wilson Betemit, RHP Jeff Marquez, RHP Jhonny Nunez

"We felt that the fit just wasn't good enough to continue on down this road,” White Sox then-GM Kenny Williams told Ron Blum about trading Swisher after his down 2008 season. “… What happened was he ended up falling into changing a little bit of the mechanical aspect of it and that translated into some of the mental aspect of it, and it spiraled down for him to where he was a little bit confused before the end of the season."

The Swisher trade is one of Cashman’s greatest heists. On the other end, the ChiSox received basically nothing. Betemit went 9-for-45 (.200) in 20 games with Chicago, and Marquez and Nunez combined to throw 10.2 MLB innings. Betemit was designated for assignment that June and finished 2009 with their Triple-A affiliate. He bounced from the White Sox to the Royals to the Tigers to the Orioles to the Rays from 2009-14, then spent 2015-16 in the Mexican League.

In a year and a half with the Yankees, Betemit hit .253/.286/.425 (84 OPS+) with 10 home runs in 290 plate appearances spread across 124 games. He played well after leaving the ChiSox (.277/.342/.454 from 2010-14) and retired as a .267/.332/.442 (104 OPS+) hitter with 75 homers and +2.8 WAR in over 2,300 big league plate appearances. (Your defense has to be pretty bad to put up a 104 OPS+ in that many plate appearances and be only a +2.3 WAR player.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Corey Kluber faced hitters and threw 22 pitches yesterday. It was his first time facing hitters as part of his shoulder injury rehab. Over the weekend Brian Cashman said he expects Kluber and Luis Severino to return sometime between Aug. 20th to Sept. 1st. Given where they are in their rehab work (Severino is making a Double-A rehab start tonight), I’d expect Severino in the early part of that window and Kluber later. Either way, good news on the Kluber front … Luke Voit is beginning a minor league rehab assignment later today as well. Anthony Rizzo allows the Yankees to give Voit as much time as necessary rather than rush him back again, and the sudden willingness to play Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield (three times in the last four games!) opens up the DH spot and makes the Big Beefy Boy lineup possible. Dream with me:

1. 1B Anthony Rizzo
2. CF Aaron Judge
3. RF Joey Gallo
4. LF Giancarlo Stanton
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. DH Luke Voit
7. 2B DJ LeMahieu
8. 3B Gio Urshela
9. SS Gleyber Torres

Put 5-9 in whatever order you like (yes, I know there’s no chance the Yankees drop LeMahieu out of the leadoff spot, but they should). I just want to see those nine names in the lineup at some point. Get healthy soon, Luke … Evan Grant reports the Rangers had extension talks with Gallo before the trade. They offered five years and $84M (roughly Lorenzo Cain and Dexter Fowler money) and Grant says Scott Boras is seeking Bryce Harper money, so yeah, the two sides weren’t close to a deal. Gallo is not a $300M+ player but Boras always has a huge first ask, then negotiates down and often gets his player more than everyone expected. We’re a long way from seriously discussing a Gallo extension, though I figured I’d mention that. Boras is already asking for Harper money … And finally, I’m becoming a crotchety old man and I have a complaint about Gallo: he fidgets with his batting gloves too much and generally takes too much time between pitches. I don’t mind four-hour games but waiting 30 seconds between pitches is where I draw the line. Pick up the pace, dude

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)