Thoughts following the 2021 trade deadline

Ayyy I’m hittin’ dingers here. (Getty)

The trade deadline has come and gone and the Yankees were among the most active teams in baseball these last few days. It was a nice change of pace after the last few years. All told, the Yankees made five trades involving 17 players (plus one player to be named later) within the last week. The full deadline recap:

• Yankees get: OF Joey Gallo, LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Clay Holmes, 1B Anthony Rizzo, LHP Joely Rodriguez, a player to be named later, and a boatload of cash
• Yankees give up: OF Kevin Alcantara, IF Diego Castillo, RHP Luis Cessa, 2B Ezequiel Duran, 2B/OF Trevor Hauver, RHP Janson Junk, RHP Glenn Otto, IF Hoy Jun Park, RHP Elvis Peguero, SS Josh Smith, RHP Alex Vizcaino, LHP Justin Wilson

“We were pushing ourselves into the arena of there’s no question we’re in this, so what do we do about it? Sit back and let it play out with what I think is an extremely talented roster already, or acknowledge it’s not good enough despite the talent and needs more?” Brian Cashman told Dan Martin after the trade deadline. “I know we’re better today than we were yesterday, but I also know everyone got better.”

Gallo and Rizzo made their Yankees debuts in last night’s win and Rizzo opened the scoring with a 449-foot solo homer (video). It is the longest homer by a Yankees left-handed hitter since Ji-Man Choi hit a 457-footer on July 5th, 2017 (video). Always fun when a trade pays immediate dividends. Here’s what I wrote about the Holmes trade, the Cessa and Wilson trade, and the Gallo and Rodriguez trade. Now let’s put a bow on the deadline and cover everything else.

1. The Rizzo trade. Something about the Yankees having a left-handed hitting first baseman just feels right, you know? Balancing the lineup was the No. 1 priority at the trade deadline and the Yankees did that a bit with Joey Gallo. They then did it some more with Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs tore apart their 2016 championship core at the deadline and the Yankees brought in a player who is an ideal fit at first base.

“When you get traded to the New York Yankees, you get to put this uniform on and go from one historic franchise to another,” Rizzo told Bryan Hoch yesterday. “It’s just an amazing feeling and opportunity for me to come in here and play for the Yankees, in this lineup, in New York City. You just can’t ask for more as a player.”

Rizzo, 32 next weekend, is no longer the hitter he was in his prime -- this guy hit .284/.388/.513 (141 wRC+) from 2014-19 -- though he remains solidly above average. He hit .248/.346/.446 (114 wRC+) with 14 homers in 92 games with the Cubs this year and the Yankees are adding him at the right time. He's hot. Last night’s homer was Rizzo’s fourth in his last five games.

Gallo is a three-true outcomes hitter who will walk and strike out a ton, and hit the ball a mile when he connects. It’s a brute masher approach. Rizzo’s offensive game is more nuanced. At this point in his career he won’t give you a ton of batting average, but he gets on base because he walks and gets by a lot of pitches, and he has power. Rizzo has no platoon split …

• 2019-21 vs. RHP: .264/.373/.491 (128 wRC+)
• 2019-21 vs. LHP: .272/.383/.444 (125 wRC+)

… and he’s a grinder at the plate. He chokes up, fouls pitches away, and just battles every at-bat. Rizzo has a 15.5% strikeout rate this year (15.8% career) and he hasn’t struck out in any of his last 20 plate appearances dating back to July 25th. This is exactly the kind of hitter the Yankees needed. A lefty with power and on-base ability who doesn’t strike out excessively.

“When you (have) those no-doubters, especially in a close game at the time, there is a little rush of adrenaline when you (say), ‘Ooh.’ It is exciting,” Aaron Boone told Bill Ladson about Rizzo’s home run last night. “It is something that lights up the dugout. Obviously, him being the player that he is, coming in his first day and getting that kind of hit was pretty cool. It definitely electrified the guys a little bit.”

Defensively, Rizzo is the best first baseman the Yankees have had since Mark Teixeira. I have a good friend who’s a diehard Cubs fan and he tells me Rizzo is an excellent scooper and good around the bag in general. He’s not a rangy guy who will get that grounder far to his right or run down a popup deep in foul territory. His defensive value stems from catching everything that comes his way.

The one thing Rizzo does not add is speed. My buddy tells me Rizzo is slow (Statcast’s sprint speed says he’s slower than Gary Sanchez) but he either doesn’t know it or doesn’t care, because he runs the bases aggressively anyway. Sometimes he’ll surprise you and go first-to-third. Other times he’ll make a boneheaded out on the bases. He’ll fit right in with the 2021 Yankees then.

There’s also the intangibles, which are impossible to quantify but definitely matter. Rizzo has long been praised for his makeup. There is no concern about him being able to handle New York. He knows what it’s like to play in a baseball crazy market and was instrumental in the Cubs ending their 108-year World Series drought. Rizzo may not know exactly what he's walking into, but he can handle it.

You don’t have to try too hard to see Rizzo fitting with the Yankees long-term. He’ll become a free agent after the season and the Yankees must add lefty bats and cut down on strikeouts. He’d fit well in 2022. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though. Let’s get through this season first. “We added Rizzo for this stretch drive. This is all about the 2021 effort. We haven’t daydreamed into the future at all,” Brian Cashman told Dan Martin when asked about re-signing Rizzo.

Yankees first basemen were hitting .198/.289/.323 (71 wRC+) going into last night’s game and sitting around and waiting for Luke Voit to get healthy had already backfired twice. The Yankees needed more production and more reliability at the position, and they still needed another lefty bat even after getting Gallo. With Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman unavailable, Rizzo was the next best option and the closest thing to a perfect fit. A welcome addition to the lineup, he is.

“To be able to put the Yankee uniform on and play (in Yankee Stadium) is definitely special,” Rizzo told Martin yesterday. “I’ve heard nothing but great things about the Yankees. This is just about winning baseball games.”

2. The Heaney trade. Mike King’s injury and Deivi Garcia’s struggles pushed the Yankees into the pitching market and that led them to Andrew Heaney, the former Angels lefty. His 5.27 ERA is unsightly. His 4.05 FIP with strong strikeout (28.2%) and walk (7.7%) rates is more encouraging. The Angels have an awful defense (-18 DRS) and that surely hurt Heaney, though the Yankees are at -19 DRS, so things may not get any better for him.

“The old adage, you can never have enough pitching, and we get a guy like Andrew Heaney, who’s an established starter and somebody who’s having a strong season this year,” Aaron Boone told Randy Miller yesterday. “His ERA is a little high, but if you look at the numbers, it’s less hits than innings pitched, a lot of innings, and a really strong strikeout-to-walk ratio. So it’s a guy who can really pitch.”

Unlike Clay Holmes and Joely Rodriguez, the two other recent pitching additions who are ground ball guys with heavy sinkers, Heaney is more traditional (“traditional”) as an elevated four-seam fastball pitcher who sweeps breaking balls away from lefties and uses a changeup away to righties. His pitch locations are textbook for a southpaw (full-size image):

Heaney sits in the low-90s with the fastball and he’s been more effective against righties (.313 wOBA) than lefties (.337 wOBA) since 2019, which is better than the alternative seeing how there are more righty hitters than lefties in baseball (righties have taken 59.4% of plate appearances in 2021). In the AL East, the Red Sox (Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, etc.) and Blue Jays (Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, etc.) both have big righty bats to worry about. Heaney will undoubtedly face those lineups at some point.

Also, it’s important to note Heaney’s spin rates have not declined since the foreign substance crackdown. They’ve held steady all year, so either he wasn’t using sticky stuff to get to his better than average spin rates or he’s still using it somehow. Either way, his spin rates are the same. This isn’t a guy who has suddenly had to learn to pitch with reduced spin. That said, this is bad:

For all intents and purposes, Heaney is this year’s Jaime Garcia as an inventory arm who will provide innings in the second half. King’s hurt, Deivi is unusable, and Corey Kluber and Luis Severino are still weeks away. Heaney allows the Yankees to avoid leaning on Nestor Cortes too much, and also to give Jameson Taillon (and everyone else, really) a little breather now and then with his workload climbing.

“Heaney can play a number of different roles for us, to go along with the guys that have pitched for us in super high leverage,” Boone told Bryan Hoch yesterday. “I feel like we have a strong group, a group that’s capable. I’m excited to move forward with it now that today is past us. We feel like we’ve added some really impactful pieces that can help us get where we want to go.”

Brian Cashman confirmed Heaney will join the rotation, though the Yankees are four games into a 17 games in 17 days stretch, and four games into a 29 games in 29 days stretch (with one off-day and one doubleheader). Cortes may move into a relief role in the short-term, but I am certain he’ll make a spot start or three in the coming weeks. The schedule makes it very likely.

Heaney last pitched on Wednesday, so the earliest he can start is Monday, when the Yankees open a three-game series with the Orioles at Yankee Stadium. I expect Heaney to make his first Yankees start at some point that series, if not Monday. Where he fits when Kluber and/or Severino return is something we can worry about when Kluber and/or Severino actually return. Not even worth thinking about now.

I don’t have big expectations for Heaney. His FIP being lower than his ERA is promising, I guess, plus some of the other nerdy stats like him, but Heaney has a 4.60 ERA (4.11 FIP) in 436 innings since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018. He may just be a FIP underperformer like Ricky Nolasco, where he leaves you waiting for the ERA correction that never comes.

I’m not expecting much but I’m also happy the Yankees added another starter and an innings guy to help get through the rest of the season. Maybe this trade doesn’t happen if King didn’t get hurt or Garcia didn’t struggle or Severino didn’t suffer his setback. All that stuff did happen though, and the Yankees needed reinforcements. Heaney is perfectly fine as a No. 4/5/6 starter type.

3. Voit remains. Understandably, the Yankees had trade talks involving Luke Voit after landing Anthony Rizzo (it never hurts to listen), though nothing came together, and Voit remains a Yankee. Very few teams needed a first baseman or a DH*. The Brewers and Athletics maybe? The Mariners? That’s about it. Voit’s market was very limited, so the Yankees kept him. 

* The Red Sox need a first baseman more than any team but that wasn't going to happen.

I mentioned Voit as a trade (and non-tender) candidate several times in recent weeks but that was only me trying to read the tea leaves, and lay out what could happen rather than what I wanted to happen. Voit’s awesome! And I’m glad the Yankees kept him. There is no such thing as too many good players and Voit hit .268/.366/.512 (134 wRC+) from 2019-20. That plays.

Voit and Rizzo are both first base only guys, so where does Voit fit when he returns? Beats me. That is the quintessential “worry about it when the time comes” question. Injuries happen and before you know it the Yankees will have Rob Brantly at first base and we’ll be wondering why they didn’t do more at the trade deadline. Baseball can be cruel like that.

“We know what Voit’s capable of when healthy. He swings a mean bat, gets on base,” Brian Cashman told Dan Martin when asked where Voit fits the rest of the year. “Decisions like that will be made at a later date.”

With Rizzo aboard, the Yankees can now send Voit on a proper rehab assignment rather than rush him back like the last two times. He started taking batting practice earlier this week and is in Tampa continuing to build up. An official minor league rehab assignment can’t be too far away. Whenever it happens, the Yankees can be patient and let Voit get plenty of at-bats.

In a perfect world where everyone is healthy, the Yankees can put Giancarlo Stanton in left field and either Joey Gallo or Aaron Judge in center, and let Voit be the DH. That might be the master plan for the postseason, assuming the Yankees qualify. I’m not sure the Yankees would do that in the regular season unless absolutely necessary though. I guess we’ll find out when Voit comes back.

Carrying two first base only guys on the roster isn’t ideal, but a) it would only be a headache in August since rosters expand Sept. 1st, and b) Voit probably won’t return for at least another two weeks anyway. He’ll come back in the middle of August and the “two first base only guys” thing will only be a problem (“problem”) for like two weeks before rosters expand. It’ll be fine.

I’m glad the Yankees kept Voit and could have too many good hitters for too few lineup spots later this season. That is in no way a problem. What happens with Voit and first base after the season? I’m not sure. The Yankees need to cut down on strikeouts and get more left-handed, and first base stands out at a place to do that. Worry about that later. For now, Voit stays, and I am pretty confident we’ll be glad the Yankees kept him at some point before the season ends.

4. No bullpen help? With all due respect to Clay Holmes and Joely Rodriguez, I wanted the Yankees to add another high-leverage reliever before the deadline. I mean, every team could use another good reliever, but the Yankees have been blowing big leads left and right lately, and neither Zack Britton nor Aroldis Chapman are where they need to be right now (Chapman is trending in the right direction but isn’t all the way back yet).

There were roughly three dozen trades within the last week and 11 involved a reliever I would consider a legitimate high-leverage option. Those relievers:

• RHP Diego Castillo (Rays to Mariners)
• LHP Andrew Chafin (Cubs to Athletics)
• RHP Kendall Graveman (Mariners to Astros)
• LHP Brad Hand (Nationals to Blue Jays)
• RHP Daniel Hudson (Nationals to Padres)
• RHP Ian Kennedy (Rangers to Phillies)
• RHP Craig Kimbrel (Cubs to White Sox)
• RHP Hansel Robles (Twins to Red Sox)
• RHP Rich Rodriguez (Pirates to Braves)
• RHP Joakim Soria (Diamondbacks to Blue Jays)
• RHP Ryan Tepera (Cubs to White Sox)

Some of those guys were more attainable than others (there’s basically no chance the Rays would have traded Castillo to the Yankees) and maybe I’m being generous calling a few of them high-leverage options at this point in their careers (Hand, Robles, Soria, etc.). Also, the White Sox paid huge and gave up Nick Madrigal to get Kimbrel. The Yankees were never going to outbid them, especially if they wanted the Cubs to eat money.

That said, Graveman or Hudson or Tepera would have been welcome additions, just to give the Yankees a little more inventory in the bullpen and to give Aaron Boone a few more options. Assuming Sal Romano gets the boot when Andrew Heaney joins the roster, the pitching staff will look like this once Wandy Peralta returns, which should happen sometime next week:

• Closer: LHP Aroldis Chapman
• Setup: LHP Zack Britton, RHP Chad Green, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
• Middle: RHP Clay Holmes, LHP Lucas Luetge, LHP Wandy Peralta, LHP Joely Rodriguez
• Long: LHP Nestor Cortes
• Starters: RHP Gerrit Cole, RHP Domingo German, LHP Andrew Heaney, LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Jameson Taillon

Nine-man bullpen, eh? Peralta has a minor league option remaining, so the Yankees could send him to Triple-A. Part of his appeal is the roster flexibility provided by that option. My guess is the Yankees will stick with the nine-man bullpen though, and demote Tyler Wade and go with a three-man bench for the time being. They’d rather have too much pitching than not enough during this 29 games in 29 days stretch.

Once Peralta returns the Yankees will have nine viable Major League relievers, so maybe they didn’t need another reliever at the deadline after all? Then again, there is always room for improvement, and someone like Graveman or Tepera would’ve been an upgrade over Peralta or Holmes (not that the Yankees would cut ties with Holmes so quickly, nor should they).

The Yankees unquestionably needed an outfielder at the deadline and they got that in Joey Gallo. I thought they needed a starter as well, especially once King got hurt, and they got that starter in Heaney. I wouldn’t call Anthony Rizzo a luxury, though expecting Luke Voit to return and hold down first base the rest of the season was not unreasonable. Bringing in a first baseman wasn’t imperative if the asking prices were too high.

Should things really go haywire in the bullpen the next few weeks, then a) no single deadline addition would have fixed things anyway, and b) the Yankees could always put prospects like Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt, and the Luises (Gil and Medina) in the bullpen, and give them a look. They all have live arms and could have success in short bursts. I don’t see a reason to move them into relief roles now. I’m just noting it could be an option at some point.

Although I wanted the Yankees to add another late-inning reliever, I don’t think standing pat was crazy. Chapman is beginning to turn things around and it’s not unreasonable to expect Britton to round into form as he gets more innings under his belt. The Yankees can look at their bullpen and say “we expect these guys to be better.” They couldn’t do that in left field, and I don’t think they could have done that at the back of the rotation either. Upgrading at those positions was a necessity. Adding to the bullpen was more of a luxury, I think.

5. The traded prospects. Considering the prospects that changed hands Friday, it sure seems like the Yankees beat the rush with the Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo trades. They gave up a bunch of good prospects to get them, no doubt, but they kept their very best prospects, whereas other teams parted with top prospects to get rentals or players with an extra year of control.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked every prospect traded at the deadline and Ezequiel Duran, the top ranked ex-Yankees prospect, comes in at No. 7. The six prospects ahead of him:

1. C Keibert Ruiz (Dodgers to Nationals for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner)
2. SS Austin Martin (Blue Jays to Twins for Jose Berrios)
3. RHP Josiah Gray (Dodgers to Nationals for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner)
4. RHP Joe Ryan (Rays to Twins for Nelson Cruz)
5. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (Blue Jays to Twins for Jose Berrios)
6. OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Mets to Cubs for Javy Baez)

Berrios is really good! But to get 1.5 years of Berrios the Blue Jays gave up two prospects who are better than any of the four prospects the Yankees gave up to get 1.5 years of Gallo (plus Joely Rodriguez), and the Rangers ate Gallo’s salary too. Crow-Armstrong was the No. 19 pick in last year’s draft! And he fetched rental Baez*. Ryan’s also highly regarded, obviously, and he netted rental Cruz.

* The Cubs received the No. 19 pick in last year’s draft for rental Baez and yet the Rockies kept rental Trevor Story, and will take a supplemental first round pick in the No. 31-36 range when he leaves as a free agent. I don’t get that team at all. I don’t think anyone does.

I understand Scherzer and Turner netting two tippy top prospects. I mean, duh. It seems like the Yankees got out ahead of the non-Scherzer/Turner market on Thursday with the Gallo and Rizzo trades though, because the deals that went down Friday involved higher caliber prospects, and those prospects were used to acquire players similar in value to Gallo (Berrios) and Rizzo (Baez and Cruz), and that doesn't even factor in the money. Hmmm.

The Yankees kept their best prospects at the deadline and they also capitalized on several prospects having breakout years. Diego Castillo and Hoy Jun Park were fringe prospects three months ago, then they had big first halves and made themselves attractive to other teams. The same applies to Janson Junk, Glenn Otto, and Elvis Peguero. They went from afterthoughts to tradeable prospects, and the Yankees spent that found money. They didn’t put it in a jar and save it for later.

“We were able to find common ground more this year, maybe because our talent pool that we’re operating from is deeper,” Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch yesterday.

There’s also a 40-man roster component to this. I think we collectively spend too much time worrying about the last few spots on the 40-man (hey, I get it, talking about the roster is fun), but roster spots are a finite resource, and they must be managed. This year’s deadline activity sent out the following prospects:

• Castillo and Park. Minor league free agents-to-be who you have to think would have looked to sign with a team that offered a clearer path to MLB playing time had they not been put on the 40-man after the World Series.
• Duran, Junk*, Otto, and Peguero**. All Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season. In some cases Rule 5 Draft eligible again. Duran and Otto were easy protection decisions. The other two would have been on the bubble come November.
• Alex Vizcaino. Essentially a dead 40-man roster spot as a recently injured pitcher who is just now getting back into game action and ramping up his workload. Best case scenario is what, he becomes an MLB option in the middle of 2022?

* Junk had a 1.78 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 7.9% walks in 65.2 Double-A innings before the trade. He’s a mid-90s fastball guy with a good slider who probably fits best as a reliever/swingman type because his changeup isn’t very good. Junk will be 26 on Opening Day 2022, so he’s not exactly a young kid you can dream on. He is what he is at this point.

** Peguero, 24, had a 2.23 ERA (3.05 FIP) with 31.8% strikeouts and 8.9% walks in 44.1 relief innings between High-A and Double-A this year. He is essentially the 2021 version of 2019 Vizcaino as an organizational arm who experienced a huge velocity bump and became interesting, though he has no secondary pitch close to Vizcaino’s changeup.

Trading good prospects for rentals like Rizzo and Heaney doesn’t thrill me. The 2021 Yankees have a tendency to disappoint and I didn’t want the front office to invest significantly in rentals to fortify a team that I don’t have much confidence in. A player with multiple years of control like Gallo? By all means, trade prospects for him. Rentals like Rizzo and Andrew Heaney? Ehhh.

The Yankees disagreed, obviously, and two things about that. One, I’d rather they add rentals and go for it than do nothing. I will always applaud a team (any team) that tries to compete, even if it is ill-advised in some cases. And two, the Yankees traded the “right” prospects to get Rizzo and Heaney as rentals. In those trades they gave up:

• Kevin Alcantara. A 19-year-old in rookie ball. He’s super talented and has big upside, though he is years away from helping the MLB team and super risky.
• Junk and Peguero. Fringe 40-man roster pitchers in a farm system that is essentially an assembly line of similar power arms.
• Vizcaino. A recently injured pitcher with a relief profile, albeit the potential to be a very good reliever given his knockout changeup.

I had Alcantara as a top 10 prospect in the system the last two years and the Yankees parting with him to get the Cubs to pay Rizzo’s salary so they could stay under the $210M luxury tax threshold doesn’t sit well with me (just spend the money you dingbats). If you’re going to trade a top 10 prospect though, the non-elite teenager so far from the big leagues is the one to trade.

The Yankees kept their top prospects (Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe) and also their closest to MLB arms (Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, etc.). They did a number on the 6-20 range of their prospects list, though they did it in a way that used the system’s strength (middle infielders and power arms) and eased the looming 40-man headache. Sensible. All things considered, the Yankees traded prospects for rentals in the best way possible.

6. About the money. As with Joey Gallo and Joely Rodriguez, the Yankees got the Cubs to pay the rest of Anthony Rizzo’s salary ($5.8M) and the Angels to pay the rest of Andrew Heaney’s salary ($2.4M). It cost them a little more in prospects, but the Yankees didn’t add to their luxury tax payroll at the deadline. In fact, they ultimately subtracted from their luxury tax payroll at the trade deadline with the Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson trade.

“Hal (Steinbrenner) was prepared to go over,” Brian Cashman told Dan Martin when asked about exceeding the $210M luxury tax threshold and come on. Hal obviously wasn’t prepared to go over the threshold, otherwise the Yankees would’ve just gone over and not given away more and/or better prospects to avoid going over. How dumb do they think we are?

Anyway, the Yankees have somewhere between $2.4M (per Cot’s) and $3.2M (per FanGraphs) in wiggle room under the threshold. That will be used to cover any injury call ups the rest of the season, Sept. call ups, any bonuses that have to be paid out, etc. Whatever the number, the Yankees have it under control. Staying under the luxury tax threshold is a goal and the trade deadline moves were done in a way to ensure it happens.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees checked in with the Rays about Kevin Kiermaier, Manny Margot, and Brett Phillips as part of their search for a center fielder prior to the trade deadline. Huh. It hasn’t been that long since the last Yankees-Rays trade (the three-team Brandon Drury deal), but I can’t say I’m surprised this check-in led nowhere. I know it’s due diligence and there’s no harm in asking, blah blah blah, but I wonder if this was even worth the phone call … And finally, Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch the Yankees were close to trading for Joey Gallo in Spring Training. That’s fun, and it’s more evidence the Yankees were never really 100% sold on Clint Frazier as their everyday left fielder. We don’t know what happened but I’m not surprised the trade didn’t come together. Spring Training is the time for optimism and the Rangers probably wanted to see how the season shook out before trading their best player.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)