July 29th, 2021: Bullpen, Montgomery, Stanton, King, Trade Deadline, Mailbag

Boy, when the Yankees give up on a game, they’re not subtle about it, huh? Today’s 14-0 loss was their largest shutout loss since a 16-0 loss to the Tigers on Aug. 27th, 2007. Here’s the box score if you want to Remember Some Guys. Very on-brand for the 2021 Yankees to follow up very exciting news with that performance. Anyway, the Yankees are on pace to go 85-77 with 61 games remaining. Here are Friday’s thoughts Thursday night because I’m going to be busy with trade deadline stuff for CBS tomorrow. This post is a little shorter than usual only because I covered the Luis Cessa trade and Joey Gallo trade earlier this week.

1. Weekday observations. You’re not going to believe this, but the Yankees failed to complete a sweep today. The only consistent things about the 2021 Yankees are double plays and not finishing sweeps. They’re 4-10 and have been outscored 86-51 when going for a sweep. Too many of these sweep opportunity games aren’t even competitive. Anyway, a few thoughts on the last few games.

Bullpen mismanagement

For all intents and purposes, the Yankees had four relievers available today: Albert Abreu, Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Sal Romano. Everyone else has pitched quite a bit lately and was unavailable. Loaisiga was presumably being held back for a save situation, meaning the middle innings belonged to the other three guys. Not great, but that’s baseball.

Gerrit Cole started very poorly today, pitched exceptionally well in the middle innings, then finished poorly. When he exited the game, the Yankees were down 6-0, so the game was already lost. But the Rays had runners on first and second with one out. Good time for one of the most extreme ground ball pitchers in the game, no? To try to get a double play?

Apparently not, because Aaron Boone brought in the rookie Abreu rather than Holmes, and Abreu put the game out of reach real quick. Walk, grand slam, walk, two-run homer, single, two-run homer. Just like that, a 6-0 deficit became a 14-0 deficit without an out even being recorded in the process. Holmes later made his Yankees debut with a meaningless 1-2-3 eighth inning (and two ground balls).

That inning would’ve been a perfect spot for Luis Cessa, but the luxury tax takes priority over the best possible roster. But why use a control-challenged rookie over an extreme ground ball guy when you’re looking for a double play? These skills are only valuable if the manager knows when to use them, and Boone doesn’t. My kingdom for a manager with feel for the game and the ability to put his team in position to succeed.

Montgomery’s surge

Jordan Montgomery in the middle of his best stretch since before having Tommy John surgery. He’s faced tough competition in six of his last seven starts (Red Sox three times plus the Athletics, Mets, and Rays once each, and one start against the Mariners), and in those seven starts he has a 3.00 ERA (3.54 FIP) in 39 innings. The Yankees are 2-5 in those seven games because they scored 15 runs total, but that’s not Montgomery’s fault.

“I think he does a really good job of not getting distracted, no matter what’s going on,” Boone told Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) earlier this week. “There’s been games where it’s been soft contact and he’s been a little bit unlucky, or games where we haven’t scored for him, but he just keeps making pitches. He’s shown a little knack for, as he gets deeper in the game, the ability to keep making pitches.”

Montgomery hasn’t made any sort of adjustment the last few weeks. He didn’t change his pitch mix or his position on the rubber or anything like that. Montgomery’s recent success is tied up in stranding runners and escaping jams. In his first 13 starts, he stranded only 66.8% of runners, below the 72.2% league average. In his last seven starts, it’s 82.1%, and his season number is now 72.3%. Funny how that works.

Many of the underlying numbers say Montgomery is still the same pitcher he was earlier this season. He held hitters to a .296 wOBA (.306 xwOBA) and a .295 BABIP in his first 13 starts. It’s a .273 wOBA and a .277 BABIP in his last seven starts despite a .311 xwOBA. Same quality of contact based on xwOBA but better results. It falls firmly in the ebbs and flows of the 162-game season.

As well as Montgomery has pitched lately, I don’t think this is the case of a guy who’s figured something out and is taking the next step. He had runners on base every inning the other night, including multiple runners in three of five innings, yet kept putting up zeroes. Montgomery deserves credit for those zeroes! But you can only walk that tightrope so long, you know?

There hasn’t been a change in pitch usage or a velocity uptick or anything like that. It’s the same Montgomery, who is good but not great, and once or twice a year a guy like this will go on a run and pitch very well for two months. Montgomery is doing that now and the Yankees have badly needed it. I’m not sure I buy it as real improvement yet though. I see a good pitcher having a good stretch.

“I think I’ve got a little more time out of Tommy John surgery, I trust in my arm, confidence in my stuff, aggressiveness, more comfortable on the mound, and I’m just trying to think less,” Montgomery told Adler (subs. req’d). “When I’m out there aggressively competing, I feel like I’m one of the better pitchers in the league. But then my mind gets in the way and I try and do too much. So I just try and go out there and leave it on the field.”

Stanton in the outfield

The Yankees open a three-game series in Miami tomorrow and all signs point to Giancarlo Stanton finally -- finally! -- playing the outfield. He hasn’t played the field since the 2019 ALCS. Not even in Spring Training. In a National League park, the Yankees can either put Stanton in the outfield or play a hobbled Greg Allen or an old Brett Gardner (or I guess Ryan LaMarre). They’ll go with the former.

“I’m leaning toward not doing his first one on this turf,” Boone told Bryan Hoch during the Rays series. “We’ll see where we are at the end of the night (with the Joey Gallo trade). Things have a way of changing and evolving, but right now I’m leaning more towards just Miami.”

Boone indicated Stanton would play left field last Sunday at Fenway Park, though that did not happen because a) it was a rainy afternoon, and b) Chris Gittens got hurt the day before, so the Yankees didn’t have anyone to plug in at DH. They could’ve put Stanton in the outfield and, uh, LaMarre at DH? Nope. Circumstances said it was wise to pull the plug.

Stanton was going to play the outfield Sunday and Monday was an off-day, and the timing was not a coincidence. They were going to play Stanton in the outfield when they knew he would be able to rest the next day without missing a game. They’re really babying him, so I think Stanton plays the outfield Friday, sits Saturday, then plays the outfield again Sunday.

“Obviously when we go play other National League series in a National League park, have that available to us,” Boone told Ken Davidoff about Stanton playing the outfield last weekend. “And if that goes well, especially when we get Aaron (Judge) back, maybe pick some spots at home in right field where I can give Judgie a DH day and things like that. So hopefully this is something we can do at least sparingly to have in play.”

King’s injury

What do you know, a Yankee has an injury that is worse than the Yankees originally let on. Mike King’s finger injury landed him on the 60-day injured list earlier this week, less than three weeks after he was able to play catch and less than one week after Boone said King would be shut down another 5-7 days. Now he’s out until at least Sept. 6th.

“(We) don’t think it’s anything serious, but it’s something that probably needs another week of rest to heal up. Then hopefully in a week he’ll start that buildup,” Boone told Randy Miller mere hours before King was placed on the 60-day injured list. That must be a helluva build up, eh? My kingdom for honest injury information. I know they don’t owe it to us, but it would be nice.

Anyway, the Yankees will now be without a versatile depth arm most of the rest of the season. King isn’t a world-beater but he can eat innings, and he can start or relieve. You need guys like that to get you through the 162-game season. With Deivi Garcia struggling in Triple-A, I think the Yankees need another depth arm before the trade deadline. King’s out of the picture now.

2. Trade deadline rumors. The trade deadline is 4pm ET tomorrow and the Yankees likely already made their big move, landing Joey Gallo in a six-player trade. Here are the latest trade deadline rumblings.

Yankees remain in on Story

Even after the Gallo trade, the Yankees remain in the mix for Trevor Story and possibly also Jon Gray, according to multiple reports. I’ve said this more times than I could possibly count the last few weeks but I don’t love the idea of giving up good prospects to get rentals, and both Story and Gray are rentals. Obviously the Yankees feel differently and they call the shots.

I think we all know the deal with Story by now. He’s very good but having a down year -- I didn’t realize Story’s been having throwing problems since suffering an elbow injury last month until Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) wrote about -- and I think he would be re-energized by playing for a contender in the race. As for Gray, he’s been excellent since a June elbow issue:

• Before injury: 4.29 ERA (4.60 FIP) and .305 xwOBA in 63 innings
• After injury: 2.57 ERA (3.50 FIP) and .266 xwOBA in 35 innings

Gray was out with a flexor strain, which is usually bad news, but he only missed two weeks and has been very good since. Very good in a small sample, sure, but it is a well-timed small sample for the Rockies and Gray. He has made himself much more attractive as a trade candidate. Gray can solidify the back of the rotation and perhaps be even better than that. The under the hood numbers:

Assuming the Yankees get the Rockies to eat money to make the luxury tax work (Gray is still owed another $2.1M or so this year), two good but not great prospects seems like a reasonable return. That’s more or less what the Yankees gave up (Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney) to get J.A. Happ when the Blue Jays ate half the money remaining on his contract in 2018.

Package Story and Gray together, get the Rockies to eat all that money (Story is still owed about $6.5M in real money but his prorated luxury tax hit is only $4.8M or so), and who knows what it’ll cost. Should be quite a bit less than it did to get Gallo because they’re rentals. Plus the Rockies are kinda rudderless. We’ll see if this rumor leads anywhere.

Yankees talking Voit

According to Jack Curry, the Yankees are discussing Luke Voit with several teams. If Jack is reporting it, it’s definitely happening. The talks are happening, I mean. Not necessarily a trade. Voit has been hurt all year and the Yankees could put DJ LeMahieu at first and Rougned Odor at second (or trade for Story and put Gleyber Torres at second).

The Yankees need to correct their high strikeout problem and you can’t do that unless you get rid of some of your high strikeout hitters, and Voit is an obvious candidate to go. He’s already 30, he’s hurt all the time, he’s a first base/DH only guy, and arbitration will push his salary into the $7M range next year. That will make him a non-tender candidate after the season*.

* I’m just telling you how teams operate. They don’t pay even modest salaries for first base/DH only guys these days. There’s a reason C.J. Cron is available every offseason.

Trading Voit at the deadline would free up approximately $1.6M in luxury tax payroll and that’s a good chunk of change. Of course, his value is down at the moment, so the Yankees would be selling low. Then again, if he really is a non-tender candidate, then this might be their last chance to get anything for Voit. I’m not surprised his name is out there.

Yankees checked in on Scherzer

Ho hum, the Padres are doing it again. They’re on the verge of landing Max Scherzer, reports Rosenthal. Jayson Stark says the Yankees did check in with the Nationals, but were told Scherzer is unlikely to approve a trade to the Bronx. I get it. I’d pick the Padres (or Dodgers or Giants) over the Yankees too. Better chance at a World Series title.

Scherzer rejecting the Yankees should spark serious self-reflection by ownership and the front office. If a future Hall of Famer and a dogged competitor like Scherzer doesn’t want to wear pinstripes, and you’re not asking yourself what the hell are we doing wrong, then I don’t even know what to say. I fear they’ll chalk it up to “Scherzer can’t handle New York,” and come on. My Scherzer dream was too good to be true. Alas.

Yankees interested in Berrios

In other pitching news, the Yankees also checked in on Jose Berrios, according to Rosenthal. Like Gallo, he is under team control through next season, so he’s not a rental. Berrios would be close to the ideal pitching addition. He’s very good, he never misses a start, and you get him next year too. That said, this is surprisingly mediocre:

The Yankees have a lot of competition for Berrios. The Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Rays, and others are all said to be in the mix. Winning a bidding war won’t be easy, especially if the Yankees insist on Minnesota eating money for luxury tax purposes. Hard to see how they can get a deal done without including Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, or Anthony Volpe.

Yankees interested in Schwarber

The Yankees are among the teams with interest in Kyle Schwarber and there’s “growing belief” he will be traded despite being on the injured list, reports Joel Sherman. Sherman also says the Yankees appear to be focused elsewhere at the moment, so take that for what it’s worth. Schwarber is out with a hamstring injury and is expected to return in mid-August.

Even with Gallo, the Yankees would have room for Schwarber. Gallo and Aaron Judge are good enough defensively to play center field (Judge played center a few times earlier this season, remember), so they could trot out a Schwarber-Gallo-Judge outfield late in the season. Another lefty power bat would be welcome. Imagine the possibilities:

1. 1B/2B DJ LeMahieu
2. CF/RF Aaron Judge
3. CF/RF Joey Gallo
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. LF Kyle Schwarber
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. SS Gleyber Torres
8. 1B Luke Voit or 2B Rougned Odor
9. 3B Gio Urshela

The fact Schwarber is on the injured list should keep the prospect cost down a bit, though he’s owed roughly $3.5M the rest of the season (for luxury tax purposes), so again, the Yankees are in a situation where they have to pay (with prospects) to get the other team to pay (with money) the player to make the luxury tax plan work. Blah.

Schwarber is working on a one-year deal and he was hitting .253/.340/.579 (138 wRC+) before the injury, including hitting 12 homers in a 10-game span at one point. The Yankees have long liked him -- if it were up to them, they would’ve gotten Schwarber in the Aroldis Chapman trade, not Gleyber Torres -- so I totally buy them pursuing him now, even while he’s injured.

Chafin and Marte to the A’s

Earlier this week the Athletics, the team the Yankees are chasing for the second Wild Card spot, got significantly better and more handsome when they acquired Starling Marte from the Marlins. Miami ate the $4.4M remaining on Marte’s contract and received lefty Jesus Luzardo in return. The Marlins are eating money and the Yankees are salary dumping. What a world.

Luzardo is having a rough year but was a top 10 MLB prospect just last year. He’s a great haul for a rental, even if he’s kinda broken. The Yankees had interest in Marte prior to the Gallo trade and would’ve needed the Marlins to eat money. Deivi Garcia is a ballpark equivalent to Luzardo. Luzardo’s more highly regarded but Garcia has an extra year of control, so it kinda fits.

Erik Boland says the Marlins asked for Anthony Volpe, which is fair when the A’s put Luzardo on the table. That’s exactly the kinda trade I don’t want the Yankees to make. A top prospect for a rental. Marte would’ve made the Yankees better, for sure, but they’re still looking at going on the road for the Wild Card Game. I’m not giving up Garcia or Volpe for a rental to chase that. Good non-trade for me, especially when they followed it up with Gallo.

Also, Sherman reports the Yankees tried to get rental lefty Andrew Chafin from the Cubs before he was traded to the A’s. Between this and the Joely Rodriguez pickup, I guess they really wanted a lefty, eh? I’m not sweating missing out on Chafin. Oakland’s core players are all a year or two away from free agency. It’s now or never for them and they’re going for it. Good for them.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Couple injury updates. First, Luis Severino threw roughly 50 pitches in a three-inning simulated game today. He was supposed to start a rehab assignment with Low-A Tampa, but it rained, so he threw a simulated game at Tropicana Field instead. By all accounts everything went well, and Severino will make a real rehab start next week. He is one day ahead of the possible schedule I laid out two weeks ago. Second, Clint Frazier is seeing a specialist in Michigan and undergoing neurological tests. He is doing some light baseball work and could begin a rehab assignment soon. My guess is Clint is no longer a Yankee by the end of tomorrow. Third, Miguel Andujar needed another cortisone injection in his achy wrist and isn’t particularly close to returning. He might be a 60-day injured list candidate at this point. Bummer. And fourth, Wandy Peralta is starting a minor league rehab assignment today. He’s on the COVID list and apparently it hit him harder than everyone else. Peralta, who is vaccinated, tested positive when the Yankees were in Houston and quarantined with Jonathan Loaisiga, and he’s just now getting back into game action. Sounds like he could rejoin the Yankees sometime next week … And finally, apparently the 10-day rule doesn’t apply when the call up is replacing a traded player. The Yankees recalled Albert Abreu and Estevan Florial to replace Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson earlier this week, one day after being sent down to make room for Clay Holmes and Aaron Judge. How did I not know that? Maybe I did know it and forgot it. Anyway, that’s a thing. The 10-day rule doesn’t apply when there’s a trade involved.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Ray asks: Have the Yankees just set up an either/or with Gallo and Judge? Both are free agents after 2022, and with two huge contracts already on the books, I don’t see them taking on two more (unless they surprise the world and trade Stanton which I also don’t see happening)

Yeah, it looks like it, and who they sign could depend on which one takes the more team friendly contract. Joey Gallo is a Scott Boras client and Boras likes to take his top clients out to the open market*, though there have been exceptions (Elvis Andrus, Xander Bogaerts, etc.). The Yankees aren’t an extension team anyway. I think they’ll let Gallo and Judge play out the next year.

* Historically, free agent spending goes up in the first offseason following a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and I have no doubt Boras knows that. Gallo (and Judge) are poised to cash in nicely next winter.

Judge is the homegrown Yankees star and once upon a time that meant an extension would be fait accompli. That is no longer the case though (see: Cano, Robinson). Gallo is 18 months younger than Judge and he has a much less worrisome injury history, plus he fits the roster better as a lefty hitter. Then again, who knows what the roster will look like going into 2023?

I definitely don’t see the Yankees signing Gallo and Judge long-term. It will be one or the other at best. This is a looming situation but it’s not imminent. Let the next season and a half play out, see where each player (and the team) stands, what they want to sign long-term, and go from there. I’m guessing what we think should happen right now will seem silly 14 months from now.

Tim asks: This will probably be outdated by the time you get to the Friday mailbag but I read Passan saying the Padres might have to attach CJ Abrams to get rid of Hosmer’s contract and isn’t this something the Yankees should be in on? I mean I know there’s zero chance Hal would do it but this is the sort of area where they could theoretically flex their financial might. Hosmer is objectively atrocious by every available metric but there’s definitely a price where buying Abrams’s future makes it worth entertaining.

I heard secondhand that the Padres are willing to attach a significant prospect to Eric Hosmer to unload his contract, then Jeff Passan and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) had it a few days later, so it’s out there. Hosmer is hitting .267/.331/.380 (97 wRC+) this year and he’s owed the balance of his $21M salary this season, plus $60M from 2022-25. His luxury tax hit is $18M per year.

I love Abrams. I predicted he would be the No. 1 prospect in baseball at the end of the season (just don’t read the rest of my predictions) and he was on his way before breaking his leg in a collision at second base a few weeks ago, ending his season. Abrams is an electric player. It’s basically the Trea Turner skill set as a lefty hitter. He has superstar potential.

Should the Yankees eat the $67M or so owed to Hosmer to get Abrams? Absolutely! I’m not the one writing the checks, what do I care? Back in the real world, Hosmer would push the Yankees over the luxury tax threshold, and as a repeat offender, they’d be hit with a 50% tax in the first penalty tier. That $67M would essentially become $100.5M given future payrolls, so yeah. That’s a big hit.

What would the Yankees even do with Hosmer? Beats me. Could play him at first base until Luke Voit returns, then stick him in the outfield I guess? The Royals did that once upon a time, but only for a few games. Given how blah he’s been this year, Hosmer’s a bench player, really, which is a problem because he isn’t versatile. He’s a crummy fit for the roster.

The Yankees could take on Hosmer to get Abrams, then give up a lesser prospect to send part of Hosmer’s contract elsewhere. Eat $30M of the $67M, attach Oswald Peraza to Hosmer, and dump the remaining $37M on another team? You’re absorbing a $45M commitment (once you include the luxury tax) to turn Peraza into Abrams. Worth it? I think so. Abrams is so good.

Obviously there’s zero chance the Yankees do this. A rebuilding team with little to no money on the books (Tigers, Orioles, Pirates, etc.) should be all over this though. Essentially buy a tippy top tier prospect and get whatever Hosmer gives you. He’s long been viewed as a clubhouse leader and mentor type, and would be a good fit for a young roster. Will it happen? I doubt it.

Andrew asks: What becomes of Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier in light of the Gallo trade?

Frazier is a goner. I thought that even before the Joey Gallo trade, but the Gallo trade confirms it. Clint is blocked in the outfield and he just hasn’t hit (or defended). He blew the opportunity of a lifetime this season. He really did. I think Frazier could get moved as soon as tomorrow to clear a little payroll. If not at the deadline, then definitely in the offseason.

Andujar at least has the advantage of being able to play the infield. Poorly, but he can do it. He provides more versatility and is just a better hitter than Frazier, I think. Andujar is certainly a different hitter than Frazier, who is another swing-and-miss power righty on a team full of them. Miggy gets the bat on the ball and uses the entire field.

Also, the Yankees legitimately love Andujar internally. They haven’t always shown it with the way they’ve handled him the last two years, but they love him. The Yankees definitely do not love Clint and they have a history of playing favorites. There’s a reason Greg Bird got endless opportunities while Hoy Jun Park saw one pitch in pinstripes.

Frazier’s a goner and I think the Yankees hang onto Andujar through the offseason and take him into Spring Training. In theory, he could help as a first base/third base/left field/DH super utility guy. I think it’s far, far more likely the Yankees give Andujar the opportunity to help next season rather than Frazier. For now, the two are in a holding pattern (and on the injured list).

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)