July 23rd, 2021: Bullpen, Allen, Torres, Florial, Garcia, Britton, Trade Deadline, 2021 Draft, Mailbag

The trade deadline is exactly one week away and Greg Allen and Rougned Odor have played well enough lately to convince the Yankees they don’t need to do anything. I'm kidding, but it sounds like a thing the Yankees would do, right? Anyway, the Yankees are on pace to go 85-77 with 67 games remaining. To today’s thoughts.

1. Weekly observations. The Yankees did something last night for the first time since June 15th: they scored a run with Jordan Montgomery on the mound. He received zero runs of support in each of his previous five starts. The offense last scored a run for him during the Blue Jays series in Buffalo. Crazy. Some thoughts on the last few days.

Death by Bullpen

The offense put the Yankees in a hole earlier this season and now the bullpen is kicking dirt on their grave. At any given moment there is something going catastrophically wrong with the 2021 Yankees, and holding them back and preventing them from going on a feel-good run. No good vibes allowed with this team.

“We’ve had some incredibly tough losses like tonight,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after last night’s game. “Time and time again, the guys have bounced back. That’s what we expect to do tomorrow.”

Somehow the Yankees have reached the point where Sal Romano, who wasn’t good enough to stick in an awful Reds bullpen, is facing the middle of the lineup in a one-run game at Fenway Park. I know the Yankees have COVID issues and whatnot, but Sal Romano? He'll will make for a good addition to the random Yankee series one day, I guess.

Boone told Lindsey Adler he was hesitant to use Luis Cessa for a second inning last night because he threw 29 pitches Tuesday. Two things about that. One, I was totally cool with going to Chad Green in the ninth. He is your best, most trustworthy reliever, and he just didn’t do the job. As much as I love Green, he’s had some crushing meltdowns lately.

And two, since when does throwing 29 pitches Tuesday limit a guy Friday? Isn’t that a pretty normal workload? Cessa is a workhorse. He regularly goes two innings or so every three days, and he only threw five pitches in the eighth! The Yankees are fighting for their postseason lives right now. Might be time to loosen the reins a bit, you know?

Here are the worst bullpens since June 1st by win probability added:

1. Diamondbacks: -4.77 WPA
2. Royals: -2.32 WPA
3. Yankees: -1.90 WPA
4. Reds: -1.88 WPA
5. Phillies: -1.63 WPA

The next worst bullpen among American League contenders is the White Sox at -0.72 WPA, so more than a full win better than the Yankees. New York’s bullpen had a +3.37 WPA in April and May. Now it’s damn near down two full wins in the last month. Four times this year the Yankees have lost a game when leading by multiple runs in the ninth inning. It is their most such losses in a single season since 1974, according to Sarah Langs. Good grief.

Brooks Kriske was demoted to Triple-A after that embarrassing performance last night -- he is the first and only pitcher in franchise history to throw four wild pitches in a single inning -- and I assume that means Jonathan Loaisiga will be back tonight. Thank goodness. The Yankees need him badly. The bullpen was supposed to be the team’s greatest strength this season. Instead, it’s just another liability now.

“When you have guys absent, everyone kind of protects each other a little bit, and that’s why you’ve got to lean on an entire bullpen to get big outs in different spots,” Boone told Ken Davidoff after last night’s game. “We have the people down there to certainly close these things out.”

At long last, a spark

For about three months now we’ve been waiting for someone to step up, light a fire under the Yankees, and get them moving in the right direction. That includes the Yankees themselves too. It’s felt like the players and Boone and everyone else have been waiting for someone else to do something. The 2021 Yankees have been lifeless more often than not.

Over the last week, that someone has been Greg Allen. He’s doing it with his bat (5-for-16 with two doubles and a triple) and his legs (three steals). You still need to sock dingers (14 of the team's 28 runs since the All-Star break have come on homers), but you also need to be able to create runs in other ways too. Allen has helped the Yankees do that.

"(Allen has) been an absolute pro in the room and been incredibly productive between the lines,” Boone told Ryan Morik earlier this week. “And obviously, the element he brings of running the bases, the versatility, and really good defense he brings in the outfield. And really every at-bat, obviously he’s gotten results, but just the quality of the at-bat has been really strong. I love what he’s brought.”

Ryan LaMarre deserves a mention here as well, plus Rougned Odor is in the middle of a well-timed hot streak. Allen is the face of the new Green Light Yankees though. The Yankees have stolen eight bases in six games since the All-Star break. They stole eight bases in their previous 41 games. Prior to Allen on Tuesday, the Yankees hadn’t hit a triple in a month. They finally have the personnel to be more than station-to-station on the bases.

“Everyone’s hungry, scrappy. We’re getting it done in different ways than we’re accustomed to,” Giancarlo Stanton told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. “So it’s good to get a new look. Some guys in here are just playing like it’s their last game every time.”

An unintentionally damning quote. The Yankees had gone stale with the same look, and the lack of urgency starts at the top of the organization. Essentially no changes were made to the roster in the first half unless prompted by injury. “This is supposed to work and we’re going to stick with it until it works” was the organizational philosophy despite mounting evidence it did not work.

So yes, it is “good to get a new look” and to get guys “just playing like it’s their last game every time,” because the guys who were on the roster were definitely not doing that. The Yankees were undeniably slow and also really boring throughout the first half. Allen (and LaMarre) has brought speed and a pulse. It’s been a breath of fresh air, no?

Allen has had a much-needed impact the last few days, though the Yankees should still look for an outfielder prior to the trade deadline. The track record tells us Allen isn’t good and a handful of games immediately prior to the deadline shouldn’t change anyone’s mind. This isn’t a 2019 Gio Urshela situation, where we’ll have hundreds of at-bats to evaluate him before the deadline.

The possibility exists Allen unlocked something in Triple-A the way Urshela unlocked something in Triple-A late in 2018. We’re not going to know that with any certainty prior to the deadline. The Yankees kept him in Triple-A until COVID forced their hand (they also traded for Tim Locastro rather than give Allen a shot), so clearly they don’t think this is the real Allen.

For now, Allen is keeping the Yankees afloat at a time when their season could’ve crumbled. He is the jolt everyone has been waiting for since April. Calling him a season-saver would be a tad dramatic (it’s been six games) but it’s not that outlandish either. Had these last few games gone sideways, the Yankees would’ve been buried. Now they’re still in the postseason race.

“A lot of the guys from (Triple-A) are here and bringing a lot of juice, a lot of energy,” spot starter Asher Wojciechowski told Hoch following Wednesday’s win. “It’s good to see. Guys are excited, getting an opportunity, and taking advantage of it. It’s a lot of fun to be around.”

Gleyber’s power

Three homers in six games since the All-Star break (and a sac fly last night that would’ve been a homer in 20 of the 30 ballparks) after three homers in 78 games in the first half (and three homers in 42 games last year) for Gleyber Torres. I didn’t love the decision to bunt in the tenth inning Wednesday given how well he’s swinging the bat -- Boone confirmed it was his call, he gave Torres one strike, then had him bunt -- but whatever. It worked.

"I think we’ve seen some glimpses of (his power coming back)," Boone told Randy Miller this past weekend. "He just missed the ball that he hit to the fence (Friday) (video). I thought he had some really good, aggressive, powerful passes in Houston. Hopefully the power follows but, more importantly right now, I just want him to have really good at-bats and be in a position to help us win ballgames."

In terms of exit velocity, July has been Gleyber’s best month of the season and it’s not all that close either. He’s gone from 85.8 mph in April to 84.6 mph in May to 86.8 mph in June to 88.2 in July, which is exactly league average. His hardest hit ball of the season (111.8 mph) came in Houston right before the break, and six of his 13 hardest hit balls of the season have come in the last month.

I wrote about this a few weeks ago: Torres looked completely discombobulated at the plate earlier this year. He collapsed on his back leg during his swing and flew open with his hips. His swing was all arms and he couldn’t drive the ball as a result. Torres has looked better of late, though I wouldn’t say he’s all the way back to 2018-19. He’s closer, but he’s not there yet.

Torres hit .240/.326/.308 (82 wRC+) in the first half and that is horrible. Even if he’s a league average hitter in the second half, it would be a significant upgrade for an offense that needs it. Getting Torres back to where he was in 2018 and 2019 (123 wRC+) would be a season changer. I won’t say Gleyber is capital-B Back yet. There are at least positive signs now.

“I’ll go back to some mechanical things within his hips that I think are a factor,” Boone told Miller. “He probably hasn’t completely unlocked or mastered or gotten back to where he’s in that good, strong, powerful position consistently.”

Florial called up

Four days ago I said the Yankees were smart to keep Estevan Florial in Triple-A, so of course Trey Amburgey landed on the injured list and Florial was in the MLB lineup less than 24 hours later. And of course he hit his first MLB home run that night (video). I’ve spent the last 14 years writing things and being proven wrong immediately. No reason to stop now.

“It’s everything I have dreamed about,” Florial told Greg Joyce about the home run. “To come here, to play in the big leagues and also overall help the team, (that’s) what I did.”

It was neat that Florial got to celebrate his first career homer with all his RailRiders teammates in the dugout. I’m serious! I’m not making a snarky comment. The Yankees have had to make a ton of call ups the last week or so, and several guys Florial has been playing with in Scranton were there to congratulate him. They didn’t have to watch on television and text him afterward.

Anyway, it sounds like Florial will stick around a little while, and the Yankees really don’t have a choice at this point. They have two full outfields on the injured list (Amburgey, Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Tim Locastro) and are in survival mode. Whatever they need to do until guys get healthy or they make a trade, do it.

Wednesday’s homer aside, I don’t expect much from Florial right now -- he was 5-for-39 (.128) with 16 strikeouts in his last 10 Triple-A games prior to the call up -- but as long as he plays, it’s fine. Don’t give him the Hoy Jun Park treatment and glue him to the bench. Florial is talented, and as long as he’s on the roster, give the talented player a chance to contribute.

“We’ve all seen his talent and what he’s capable of,” Boone told Miller. “Hopefully he can kind of take advantage of this opportunity and give us a little bit of a spark. Hopefully he can go out there and hold it down for us.”

Wojciechowski over Garcia

The Yankees needed a spot starter Wednesday and rather than go with Deivi Garcia, they went with journeyman righty Asher Wojciechowski. It’s never good when you’ve reached the “this guy bombed out of the Orioles rotation” portion of your pitching depth. Wojciechowski was in trouble all night but finished with two runs allowed in four innings, which is about the best we could’ve hoped for.

“We were up against it in a lot of ways today,” Boone told Hoch following Wojciechowski’s start. “Having some guys down, we’re relying on other guys to step up. They were probably a little bit on fumes out there tonight. It was a tough, hard win, with a lot of people contributing.”

I understand going with Wojciechowski over Garcia. Deivi pitched well enough Tuesday (6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 9 K) but has largely struggled this year, and Wojciechowski can be dropped from the 40-man roster easily (he’s already been designated for assignment). Matt Krook and Glenn Otto wouldn’t make it through waivers, so once they’re added to the 40-man, they’re there for good. Wojciechowski allowed for flexibility.

“Just the best chance to get outs,” Boone told Joyce about going with Wojciechowski over Deivi, which is telling. The Yankees don’t see Garcia as an option at the moment, even for a spot start. I think we all kinda knew that given his struggles, but going with Wojciechowski confirms it. Deivi has fallen pretty far down the depth chart after opening the season as the No. 6 starter.

If nothing else, Wojciechowski over Garcia reinforces the need for pitching at the trade deadline. Corey Kluber and Luis Severino are still weeks away, and while Mike King and Nestor Cortes have held down the fort admirably, the Yankees can do better. Everything about giving the ball to Wojciechowski in the middle of this crucial pre-deadline stretch says “go get a pitcher.”

Hopefully Garcia straightens himself out and becomes an option later this year, but he’s not one right now, and Triple-A is the best place for him. I think the same is true for Florial, though the Yankees are out of outfielders. Deivi’s development and winning at the MLB level aren’t mutually exclusive. Keeping him in Triple-A is the best thing for him and the best thing for the Yankees.

Britton’s struggles

In three games back from the injured list, Zack Britton has retired only five of 13 batters faced (one baserunner reached on a routine grounder that went for an error), with four walks and three strikeouts. Four walks plus two other three-ball counts. Britton’s control is nonexistent and his velocity is still way down. He generally looks all out of sorts. It’s been a grind.

Aroldis Chapman was incredible earlier this season and then just lost it. Britton, on the other hand, hasn’t looked right all year, and it’s understandable. He had COVID in January, missed Spring Training with elbow surgery, made five rehab appearances, got hurt again two weeks later, then rejoined the Yankees after two simulated games. Britton hasn’t had anything close to a proper build up.

I wouldn’t say I’m worried about Britton. I think it’s easy to understand why he’s missing velocity and why he’s looked out of sorts given his irregular season. He’s the kinda guy who, in theory, can succeed without his usual velocity because he relies so much on sink. Britton at 91-93 mph won’t be the same as Britton at 96-98 mph, but it should be okay.

The problem is Britton is still building up and the Yankees aren’t really in position to let him work through things in lower leverage situations. Someone other than Green (and eventually Loaisiga) has to get big outs, and Britton (and Chapman) is that someone. Letting Britton work through it in May is easier than letting him work through it in July and August.

As he gets further away from the injuries and gets more innings under his belt, Britton will look more like the usual Zack Britton. How long will that take? Hopefully not long, because the Yankees are in crunch time now. This may be Spring Training for Britton, but it’s a postseason race for the Yankees. They need him to improve right away.

2. Trade chips. The trade deadline is next Friday and, last night’s loss notwithstanding, the Yankees have played well enough during his gauntlet stretch to be reinforced. Will the front office actually bring in reinforcements? They didn’t the last few years, and I'm not sure they can make meaningful additions without exceeding the $210M luxury tax threshold, but we’ll see.

At this point the Yankees are looking at a Wild Card Game berth at best (their AL East odds are down to 6.0%), and I don’t expect Hal Steinbrenner to okay blowing up the luxury tax plan for a Wild Card Game berth. They’ve worked too hard to get under the threshold to scrap it for what amounts to a Game 163. I’d rank the potential trade deadline outcomes like so:

1. Buy lightly while staying under the luxury tax threshold.
2. Stand pat.
3. Buy aggressively and exceed the luxury tax threshold.
4. Sell.

An outfielder (really two outfielders, but I’m not getting my hopes up), a starting pitcher, and a reliever (really two relievers, but I’m not getting my hopes up) is the shopping list. This is a reasonable post-trade deadline roster, I think:

Worry about where Corey Kluber and Luis Severino fit when they actually return. Mike King (or Cortes) goes to Triple-A as depth, and I guess Miguel Andujar does too. Clint Frazier and Justin Wilson are obvious trade candidates as salary offsets*. They have zero value, though clearing their money helps with the luxury tax plan. Think Tyler Clippard in the Todd Frazier trade.

* Trading Frazier on deadline day would save about $735,000 in luxury tax space. Wilson would save about $900,000, so that’s roughly $1.635M between the two of them. Not a ton but not an insignificant amount either. The Yankees would miss neither Frazier nor Wilson, and that money makes adding pieces a little easier.

I plan on getting into potential trade targets next week, when the landscape is a little clearer and the market has (hopefully) started to move a bit. Trading prospects for rentals to help this team doesn’t excite me, though players with control beyond 2021 would be pretty cool. What do the Yankees have to trade? Let’s look at that now.

Top prospects

For what it’s worth, Jeff Passan says the Yankees are “not inclined to part with their best minor leaguers,” which applies to every team ever. The Yankees have held onto their top prospects the last few years (the last tippy top prospect they traded was Justus Sheffield) though I’m sure they’d give up a top prospect in the right deal (i.e. for a quality player with control beyond 2021).

Also, Joel Sherman reports the Rangers had a “top” scout watch High-A Hudson Valley earlier this week. You can connect the dots and say the scout was doing legwork for a potential Joey Gallo and/or Kyle Gibson deal. Notable prospects with the Renegades include Josh Breaux, Ezequiel Duran, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Seigler, and Anthony Volpe.

Anyway, Brian Cashman likes to say no one is untouchable, but some are more touchable than others. I know for a fact the Yankees love love love Volpe and Jasson Dominguez, and I think it would take something truly crazy for the Yankees to trade either of them. Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez, Max Scherzer and Juan Soto, etc. Something bonkers like that.

I think everyone else in the system is available for something less bonkers, including Peraza, Deivi Garcia, and Austin Wells. You’d rather not sell low on Deivi, but he can’t be off the table either. The Luises (Gil and Medina) are surely available, and probably Estevan Florial too, though the Yankees clearly like him. We can drop the prospects into three buckets:

• Basically untouchable: Dominguez and Volpe
• Don’t want to trade but would: Garcia, Peraza, and Wells
• Definitely available: Everyone else

In 2019, the Mets traded Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, at the time two fringe top 100 prospects like Garcia, Peraza, and Wells, for a year and a half of Marcus Stroman, so that is more or less their trade value. Two of those guys can get you a pretty good non-rental like, uh, Gallo or Gibson? Feels like it would take more to get Gallo, but I dunno.

The farm system is improved this season and that bodes well for the Yankees, who may have to give up extra (or higher value) prospects to get the other team to eat money to make the luxury tax plan work. They did that with the Zack Britton, J.A. Happ, and Lance Lynn trades in 2018. Dominguez and Volpe are the only prospects who I think are essentially untouchable.

Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects

In a perfect world, you would trade all the prospects you aren’t planning to add to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes. The only problem is every team thinks that way, and no team wants to clutter their 40-man with fringe prospects. That doesn’t mean you stop trying though. Here are the notable Yankees prospects who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter:

• Catchers: Josh Breaux
• Infielders: Oswaldo Cabrera, Ezequiel Duran
• Outfielders: Brandon Lockridge, Everson Pereira
• Righties: Janson Junk, Barrett Loseke, Glenn Otto, Matt Sauer, Randy Vasquez
• Lefties: None!
• Minor league free agents: OF Trey Amburgey*, IF Diego Castillo, IF Kyle Holder, IF Hoy Jun Park, C Donny Sands

* Amburgey is on the 40-man roster right now, but he’s a COVID replacement, and will come off once everyone returns. Park was sent back to Triple-A as a non-40-man player earlier this week to make room for Asher Wojciechowski. Amburgey will go back to Triple-A as a non-40-man guy at some point before the season is over.

Minor league free agents become free agents right after the World Series, so those decisions must be made right away. I think the Yankees add Park to the 40-man roster and keep him, and that’s it. He’s having a “he might be a useful bench piece at an up the middle position” breakout similar to Kyle Higashioka in 2016, his minor league free agent year.

Duran is among the Yankees top prospects and will be added to the 40-man. I think Otto is the best bet to be added among the others, with Breaux and Sauer next in line. Junk is having a great year in Double-A and Loseke is a reliever with big stuff, making them prime Rule 5 Draft fodder. I’m not sure Cabrera, Lockridge, Vasquez, or especially Pereira could stick next year.

The lesson to take from Garrett Whitlock is not protect everyone from the Rule 5 Draft. It’s know your own damn system better. Guys like Breaux, Junk, Loseke, Otto, and Sauer are not 40-man roster locks and thus trade candidates. Trade ‘em before you lose them for nothing. I think they’re the second or third piece in a larger trade at best, but that still has value.

MLB players

Would the Yankees subtract from their MLB roster at the deadline? I don’t mean sell. I mean a “baseball trade” that subtracts from one part of the MLB roster to bolster another. Just to throw a hypothetical out, think something like Gio Urshela for Kris Bryant. Or maybe a better example is Gleyber Torres for Max Scherzer. Trade from one area on your roster to improve another.

The thing is, where do the Yankees have the depth to do this? I guess they could trade Urshela, move DJ LeMahieu to third, and play Rougned Odor everyday. They’re short on outfielders and short on pitching. Maybe they’d include Jordan Montgomery in a Scherzer trade, but I don’t think the Nationals are trading Scherzer anyway. I don’t see the Yankees trading an MLB player.

A meaningful MLB player, I should say, because we’ve already discussed using Frazier and Wilson as salary offsets, and the Yankees wouldn’t miss either player. And of course fringe roster guys like Nick Nelson and Brooks Kriske could be moved. There’s always a market for live arms. If the Yankees make any trades at the deadline, prospects for big leaguers is by far the most likely outcome, I think.

The Yankees will push their Rule 5 Draft eligible players on potential trade partners with Garcia, Peraza, and Wells their best realistically available prospects. I don’t think anything significant enough to consider moving Dominguez or Volpe will come across Cashman’s desk in the next few days. This deadline will be about mid-range prospects and making the luxury tax plan work.

3. McKinney to the Dodgers. So much for the Billy McKinney idea. The Mets traded McKinney, who they designated for assignment last week, to the Dodgers for Double-A outfielder and fringe top 30 prospect Juan Rincon on Wednesday. The Yankees equivalent to Rincon would be someone like Brandon Lockridge, and maybe even a prospect less than that.

I thought McKinney made sense because a) the Yankees have six outfielders on the injured list, b) he’s a lefty bat who pulls the ball and has been league average against righties in his career, and c) he has a decent amount of first base experience. With Luke Voit hurt again and Chris Gittens nursing an Achilles issue/being very bad, another first base option wouldn’t have been a bad idea.

I don’t want to spend too much time on McKinney. Rather, I want to use this as an opportunity to compare how the Dodgers, one of the few teams on equal footing with the Yankees in terms of market size and resources, and the Yankees have gone about improving (or attempting to improve) their rosters since Opening Day. The difference is stark.

Here are the in-season transactions the Yankees have made this year that involve a player who went on to spend time on the MLB roster. So not someone like Mike Montgomery, who signed a minor league deal a few weeks back and never made it to MLB.

• Trades (3): Rougned Odor, Wandy Peralta, Tim Locastro
• Free agent signings (1): Sal Romano
• Waiver claims (0): none

Three minor trades and a signing. The Peralta trade went down because the Yankees had no room for Mike Tauchman (at the time) and the Locastro trade went down because the Yankees lost a bunch of outfielders to injuries and needed help. Now here are the in-season transactions the Dodgers have made, again only involving players who spent time on their MLB roster:

• Trades (2): Billy McKinney, Yoshi Tsutsugo
• Free agent signings (4): Nate Jones, Albert Pujols, Jake Reed, Steven Souza
• Waiver claims (2): Phil Bickford, Jimmie Sherfy

Los Angeles has been much more aggressive churning through players at the bottom of the roster, and it’s not like they lack depth. Baseball America (subs. req’d) says they have a top 10 farm system. Some of those in-season additions haven’t worked out (Jones allowed nine runs in 8.2 innings), but others have (Bickford has a 2.59 ERA and 3.08 FIP). The thinking seems to be that this available player may not be great, but he’s better than someone somewhere along the line in our organization, so let’s try him.

I’m using the Dodgers as a comparison here only because they’re the team that traded for McKinney. Here are the in-season moves the Mets have made this year, just to pick another big market club with World Series aspirations (again, these are only players who went on to play for the MLB team at some point):

• Trades (3): Anthony Banda, Cameron Maybin, Billy McKinney
• Free agent signings (1): Mason Williams
• Waiver claims (4): Travis Blankenhorn, Geoff Hartlieb, Robert Stock, Nick Tropeano

The Yankees started so poorly this year and the roster was begging for some fresh blood, yet it didn’t come until injuries and COVID made it necessary. Even the last few years, the Yankees have been fairly passive about adding to the roster in-season. They sat out the trade deadline and didn’t make many waiver claims. Do you even know the last time the Yankees made a waiver claim? I had to look it up. Here are their last five waiver claims:

• Aug. 23rd, 2019: Cory Gearrin (from Mariners)
• Aug. 14th, 2019: Ryan Dull (from Giants)
• May 12th, 2019: Breyvic Valera (from Giants)
• April 4th, 2019: Jake Barrett (from Pirates)
• Nov. 26th, 2018: Parker Bridwell (from Angels)

The Yankees have made seven waiver claims since Jan. 1st, 2017. The Dodgers have made five since April. And that’s the Dodgers. It’s not the Orioles or Pirates. The defending World Series champs, a team with a massive payroll and a deep system, is churning through guys in the 40th spot on the 40-man roster because they might be better than what they have.

I do think there’s something to be said for sticking with your internal options and showing that you’ll promote from within when a need arises. It’s good for morale, no? Why trade for McKinney when you have a Greg Allen sitting right there, right? Well, sure, but the roster was stagnant for weeks. I first wrote about calling up Allen when Aaron Hicks got hurt! Yet the Yankees used their backup infielder as their backup center fielder for weeks instead.

The Yankees don't go outside the organization for help often and they’re only turning to their internal options when something forces their hand. Otherwise they’ve been pretty content to roll the same roster out there, and wait for guys to perform up to expectations. I’d like to see a little more proactivity. I know McKinney and waiver claims aren’t the most exciting thing in the world, but it’s okay to try them once in a while. Use every available avenue to add talent.

4. 2021 draft signings. The Yankees have handled just about all their draft business with more than a week to spare before the Aug. 1 signing deadline. The team has not yet announced any signings (that should happen soon) though signing bonus reports have been trickling in the last few days. Here are the bonus pool relevant signings (via MLB.com):

Selvidge got the $1.5M he was said to be seeking, which is middle of the second round money. It’s just under slot for the No. 49 overall pick. Fitts wound up with fifth round money in the sixth round. He got Hardman’s slot exactly, in fact. Selvidge and Fitts came into the spring as potential first rounders, but had poor years and fell. Selvidge still cashed in nicely. Fitts didn’t do too bad either.

Slot for every pick after the tenth round is $125,000, and every dollar over that counts against the bonus pool. The Yankees went over to sign Neely, Messinger, and Hermann. Gotta say, I didn’t expect Hermann to sign, especially not for such a relatively small bonus. I thought he was ticketed for college. He’s an interesting prospect. Glad the Yankees convinced him to turn pro.

The Yankees have signed 18 of their 20 picks. The two holdouts: Vanderbilt C Dominic Keegan (19th round) and New Jersey RHP Sean Hard (20th round). Keegan has already said he’s going back to school. The Yankees have a little more than $125,000 left under the 5% overage. Add in the $125,000 slot and they can put $250,000 on the table and tell Hard to take it or leave it.

$250,000 is middle of the sixth round money and my guess is the Yankees know Hard will sign at that number. They typically spend right up to the 5% overage line (last year they went 4.87% over their bonus pool and the year before that it was 4.96%) and I have no reason to think they won’t do it this year. Getting Hermann and Hard signed would be neat. I didn’t expect either. (Here's my draft recap post.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Rays acquired Nelson Cruz for two good but not great prospects last night, just in time for the Yankees to visit Tampa next week. I gave up on the AL East title a few weeks ago, but the Yankees still have six games remaining with the Rays, so Cruz will make their life a little more miserable the rest of the way. Blah … Earlier this week I mentioned the Arizona Fall League may not happen this year and, well, it’s happening. Josh Norris has the details. Same old format (six teams with seven prospects from five organizations per team) with a 30-game season running from Oct. 13th to Nov. 20th, though it remains subject to change given the pandemic. We’ll look at AzFL candidates more in-depth in a few weeks. As always, any prospects who missed time with injury (Clarke Schmidt, T.J. Sikkema, Alex Vizcaino, etc.) are obvious candidates to go to the AzFL to make up for lost innings and at-bats … Remember that flashing light over the batter’s eye that delayed Sunday’s game temporarily (video)? This is the sign-stealing era, so MLB investigated the incident, and Kristie Ackert says the league “found no evidence of rules violations by either club.” They believe the light came from a fan’s cell phone and consider the matter closed, so that’s that. Whatever it was, it was way too obvious to be sign-stealing. I didn’t think much of it at the time, but I’m not surprised MLB looked into it. They had to ... And finally, Cleveland announced their new name earlier this morning. They will be the Cleveland Guardians beginning in 2022. I like the logo:

Guardians is a safe, boring name, and the fact they're sticking with the same color scheme and fonts and everything is also safe and boring. I get that the franchise has been around forever, but this was a chance for a fresh look and total rebrand. You can do that tastefully and without ruining the franchise's legacy. Oh well. Not my problem. Welcome to the show, Guardians.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mike asks: Should the Yankees have blown up their bonus pool to sign Leiter in 2019?

Fun question! The Yankees drafted Jack Leiter, Al’s son and the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, with their 20th round pick in 2019. They knew he was going to Vanderbilt and not signing, but they figured a 20th round pick was worth a) the chance (however small) he would change his mind and turn pro, and b) starting a relationship that could benefit them down the road.

The draft bonus pools are a soft cap, though the penalties for excessive spending are harsh enough that they effectively act as a hard cap. Here are the penalty tiers:

• Exceed bonus pool 0-5%: 75% tax on overage
• Exceed bonus pool 5-10%: 75% tax on overage and forfeit next year’s first rounder
• Exceed bonus pool 10-15%: 100% tax on overage and forfeit next year’s first and second rounders
• Exceed bonus pool: 15% or more: 100% tax on overage and forfeit next two first rounders

Nearly every team spends to the 5% overage, including the Yankees. No team has crossed the 5% threshold and forfeited a future pick and I don’t expect it to happen anytime soon (or ever). Teams hug their prospects and draft picks a little too tightly these days.

The Yankees had a $7,455,300 bonus pool in 2019, and while we don’t know what it would’ve taken to convince Leiter to turn pro, we can safely assume it would’ve been more than the 15% overage ($1,118,295). Give him at least that much and you’ve forfeited your next two first round picks. The only difference after that point is how much tax you have to pay, and the Yankees can afford to pay any amount.

Sell Leiter on the idea of playing pro ball with his high school teammate Anthony Volpe in 2019 and two things happen. First, the Yankees forfeit their next two first round picks, which not only means no Austin Wells and Trey Sweeney, it changes their 2020 and 2021 drafts entirely. The Yankees would have significantly less bonus pool space to work with those years.

And second, Leiter’s development path changes completely. Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com ranked him the No. 21 and No. 33 prospect in the 2019 draft class, respectively. He was a late first round/early second round talent back then. Then Leiter went to Vanderbilt, a top player development program, and got significantly better. No. 2 pick in the draft better.

Does Leiter develop into the same pitcher he is today had he signed with the Yankees in 2019? Probably not. Different coaches, different training methods, pandemic season thrown in, etc. I don’t think you can assume you can change all that and wind up with the same player two years later. It is baseball’s butterfly effect.

Knowing what we know now, I’d say yeah, the Yankees should’ve blown up their bonus pool to sign Leiter in 2019. He’s crazy good and I’d rather have him than Wells and Sweeney. It’s not quite that simple, of course, but yes, give me Leiter. I thought he was a stud back then and I think he’s an even bigger stud now. As long as he stays healthy, Leiter will be an ace.

If you’re going to blow up your bonus pool and forfeit future picks to sign a top talent who falls, you might as well go huge and sign three or four of these kids. Once you’re over the 15% and you’ve given up your next two first rounders*, the only difference is the tax you have to pay, and these are the Yankees. They can afford to spend, say, $15M on bonuses for three top talents in the late rounds and then pay another $15M in tax.

* As the Yankees, you can reasonably assume those picks will be lower value picks late in the first round. If you wind up forfeiting a top five pick in two years as part of this strategy, you have much bigger problems to worry about.

This is a strategy you’d have to plan ahead of time, and touch base with each prospect and nail down his asking price (and have backup plans, and backup plans for your backup plans). No one wants to give up their next two first round picks, but if you walk away from this year’s draft with three or four (or more) first round talents, it’s worth it. A prospect now is worth more than a pick later, so really all it costs is money, and the Yankees have plenty of it.

Daniel asks: One of the stories of the spring was Jameson Taillon's new mechanics as he comes back from his second TJ. Anecdotally, it seems like Taillon's arm action has gotten longer as the season has gone on, reverting towards his Pittsburgh-era mechanics. Is this true or are my eyes deceiving me?

I thought maybe Taillon had lengthened his arm action a few weeks ago, when he added that little step to his delivery, but it does not appear to be the case. On the left is a pitch from April 7th and on the right is a pitch from June 29th. The GIFs are synced up at the release point, and I slowed it down so we can more easily compare the arm action (GIF link):

Taillon’s arm action looks a little longer now? Maybe? If it is longer, it’s definitely not that much longer. I spent way too much time looking at the individual frames and this looks like the best evidence that Taillon’s arm action is longer, and the difference is pretty small (full-size image):

That’s not necessarily evidence Taillon’s arm action is longer. I think it’s roughly the same arm action, except his arm is lagging a bit. And there’s a million caveats here. I picked two random pitches (my only criteria was fastballs taken for strikes, figuring he'd have the same mechanics for each pitch) out of the nearly 1,500 pitches Taillon has thrown this year. Pick two others and things could look very different. I don’t want to make too much of this.

My hunch is no, Taillon has not intentionally lengthened his arm action. Any difference is small and likely unintentional. It’s probably the result of throwing close to 1,500 pitches and the general fatigue and wear of tear of the season. I’m guessing we could cut side-by-side April and July GIFs of every pitcher and find little differences in his delivery.

I think Taillon’s recent success (2.86 ERA in his last 34.2 innings) has more to do with pitch selection than a slight change in arm action. Taillon got rocked in Philadelphia last month, and since then he’s scaled back on his four-seamer a bit, and thrown more curveballs and sinkers. The increase in curveballs and sinkers since the Phillies start is very noticeable:

Makes sense, right? You go out and give up four runs in one-third of an inning, giving you a 5.74 ERA in 12 starts, and yeah, you’ll go back to the drawing board. “It’s embarrassing. It’s humiliating,” Taillon told Erik Boland after the game. Here’s what Taillon and Aaron Boone told Boland about his recent success:

"I made a couple of changes," Taillon said. "Started doing the two-seam [fastball] more, started throwing my curveball more aggressively, started throwing from the windup.”

"I think it caused him to add to his repertoire a little bit and get a little more versatile," Boone said, "and we’re seeing him now incorporate a number of pitches. Early on it was a lot of four-seam [fastballs] at the top and curveball off of that. We’re seeing him mix in the two-seam now, we’re seeing him mix in changeup and slider to still go along with the four-seam that he’s featuring and the curveball.

"So he’s just a lot less predictable and a lot more versatile on the mound and he’s pounding the strike zone, and I think he’s just into the rhythm of the season. I’m really excited about where he’s at."

Always nice when the words match the numbers and the eye test. Maybe Taillon’s arm action is a little longer, maybe it isn’t. What is different is his delivery (he’s added that little step) and his pitch selection (fewer four-seamers, more curveballs and sinkers), and it sounds like it’s all the result of the Phillies disaster. That told Taillon something had to change, and he made changes.

“I thought I was just putting my foot down after a really bad start," Taillon told Boland. "I knew that wasn’t the pitcher that I was deep down. I knew I had a lot more to offer than what I was offering. So I was just at that point looking for little baby steps. I went out and had a pretty decent start against the A’s back then. That kind of just started building things."

George asks: We all know there'll be plenty of free agent SSs in free agency this off season. The Yanks seem to have at least a couple of good ones in their system. Peraza and Volpe seem to stand out. Do you think they will pursue a SS in free agency, or do you think they are counting on a player in their system long term and maybe plug in someone like Simmons to fill the gap.

I don’t think the Yankees are eager to hand out another long-term contract right now, which is what it will take to sign Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, etc. We don’t know how the Yankees will react if they miss the postseason (they spent big on free agents after 2013 then traded for younger guys in Didi Gregorius and Nathan Eovaldi after 2014), but I don’t think they have the appetite for another big money long-term contract.

I would rank next year’s shortstop possibilities like so:

1. Stick with Gleyber Torres.
2. Sign a stopgap.
3. Spend big on a free agent.

The Yankees have long liked Andrelton Simmons, who they tried to get from the Braves back in the day and had interest in last offseason, and who Joel Sherman says they asked about again recently. Simmons kinda stinks now (78 wRC+ last three years with average-ish defensive stats this year) and I don’t think he’s getting better with his 32nd birthday a few weeks away. That said, he is a potential one-year shortstop stopgap.

Beyond the top guys and Simmons, other free agent shortstops this offseason include the usual suspects (Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, etc.), Marcus Semien, and Brandon Crawford. Semien is having a monster year and playing his way into a nice contract. Not Correa/Seager nice, but nice. I’m not sure Crawford will leave the Giants. He grew up in the Bay Area and they need someone to play short until top prospect Marco Luciano is ready. It’s a good fit for both sides. (Gerrit Cole is married to Crawford's sister. Maybe he can convince his brother-in-law to come across the country.)

Oswald Peraza is doing well since his promotion to Double-A Somerset (.286/.345/.474 and 121 wRC+), though expecting him to be the Opening Day shortstop in 2022 is a reach. Anthony Volpe is basically a year behind Peraza. So yeah, the Yankees will need a stopgap shortstop in 2022 at the very least. And hey, that stopgap could be Torres! He’s gotten better as the season has progressed, and the Simmons and Galvis types don’t thrill me. Stick with Gleyber or go with one of them? Easy call for me.

Correa is having a monster season but I see Seager as the better fit for the Yankees because he’s a lefty high contact bat. Correa and Story, as good as they are, would be yet another righty bat in a lineup lacking diversity. Seager is a high contact lefty with big market experience who has excelled in the postseason (NLCS and World Series MVP last year). And he’ll be 27 on Opening Day 2022 too. How many more boxes does a guy need to check?

As far as I’m concerned, Hal Steinbrenner should give all the money he’s set aside for vanity space exploration to Seager. Will it happen though? I don’t think so. I don’t think the Yankees want another big money long-term deal on the books. I think they’ll look for a cheaper stopgap option until Peraza or Volpe is ready, and use Torres at short if nothing appealing comes along.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)