July 16th, 2021: COVID Outbreak, Prospects, Mailbag

The second half is off to a roaring start, huh? The Yankees have another COVID-19 outbreak, this time among the players, and they’re currently in a holding pattern. Let’s get to the thoughts. Today’s post is a little shorter than usual because the Yankees haven’t played in a while, and also because Tuesday’s post was pretty long and I did a separate draft recap post.

1. The COVID outbreak. The Yankees were among the first teams to hit the 85% vaccination threshold and yet they’re on their second COVID outbreak of the season somehow. Most of the coaching staff was sidelined in May. Now the outbreak involves players. Here’s what we know:

• Jonathan Loaisiga was placed on the COVID list last weekend and had to remain in Houston to quarantine. Nestor Cortes and Wandy Peralta were placed on the COVID list yesterday. All three players are fully vaccinated, Brian Cashman said.
• Kyle Higashioka, Aaron Judge, and Gio Urshela have “pending” positive tests, according to Buster Olney. That means they’re waiting for lab results to confirm rapid tests.
• Cashman said “most” players who tested positive are vaccinated. We know Urshela is vaccinated because he missed a game with side effects in May. That leaves Judge and Higashioka as potentially unvaccinated.
• One unvaccinated player who tested positive is showing symptoms, according to Jared Diamond. The players who have been vaccinated are asymptomatic.
• Outfielder Trey Amburgey (confirmed by the Yankees) and infielder Hoy Jun Park (according to Daniel Kim) are being called up, and catcher Rob Brantly was a late scratch from last night’s Triple-A lineup.
• Gleyber Torres’ positive test in May was a false positive, Cashman said.

Judge testing positive is a nightmare for MLB because he was at the All-Star Game, and the last thing MLB wants is a superspreader event attended by players from all 30 teams (even just the 15 AL teams being exposed would be bad). Pete Abraham says Red Sox All-Stars have been told to social distance for the time being. I imagine other All-Stars have been told the same.

MLB made the call to postpone yesterday’s game and the league will decide when the Yankees play again. From what I understand, part of the concern is the Yankees and Red Sox were going to play eight times in an 11-day span starting yesterday, so the two teams will be around each other a lot. The Red Sox are not among the teams to reach the 85% vaccination threshold.

Under this year’s health and safety agreement, an unvaccinated player who tests positive must quarantine for 10 days, so the Yankees will be without Judge and/or Higashioka for this very important season-defining stretch. There are protocols in place for vaccinated players to return in fewer than 10 days, so Urshela and the three relievers could return soon.

The vaccine does not prevent the virus from entering your body but it does reduce your chances of spreading the disease and experiencing severe symptoms. Hopefully the outbreak is limited to the six players who have tested positive, and the Yankees can safely get back on the field soon. Whenever they do play again, they’ll be shorthanded. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

2. Prospect thoughts. The Yankees announced a series of prospect promotions earlier this week, including Anthony Volpe to High-A Hudson Valley. He is 2-for-13 through three games with the Renegades after hitting .302/.445/.623 (185 wRC+) with 12 homers and more walks (51) than strikeouts (43) in 54 games with Low-A Tampa. I don’t have much to say about Volpe at this point other than: he’s good. Here are a few thoughts on other prospect promotions.

Dominguez promoted to Low-A Tampa

The Yankees aren’t taking it slow with Jasson Dominguez. He played seven games in the rookie Florida Complex League, went to the Futures Game this past weekend, then got promoted to Low-A Tampa when he returned. Three games in, Dominguez is 5-for-12 with a double (video), a triple (video), no walks, and one strikeout with the Tarpons.

Dominguez is currently the youngest position player in a full season minor league and the second youngest player in a full season league overall (Marlins Low-A righty Eury Perez is two months younger). And now that he’s in Tampa, we have Statcast data. Dominguez’s 11 balls in play have averaged only 82.3 mph off the bat, though he’s hit three balls over 100 mph and maxed out at 101.0 mph.

It’s been three games. Who cares about three games of exit velocity? (Me, but only if it’s good! I kid, I kid.) I’m a little surprised the Yankees moved Dominguez up this quickly -- he just sat around for a year during the pandemic -- but I’m pleasantly surprised. By all accounts, he’s a mature kid, so he can handle it. Plus he’s obviously extremely talented. Challenge him.

I assume Dominguez will spend the rest of the year with Tampa. A promotion to High-A Hudson Valley would really surprise me. Tampa is going to the postseason -- they have the league’s best record (by two games) and best run differential (by 111 runs!) -- so Dominguez has a good two months of meaningful baseball ahead of him. It’s a good spot to finish his first pro season.

As long as all goes well in Tampa, I would expect the Yankees to send Dominguez to High-A to begin next year, and bump him up to Double-A at midseason (after the Futures Game again?). Getting to Double-A at age 19 after losing a season to a global pandemic would be incredible progress. Dominguez hasn’t even really done anything on the field yet. Just the promotions and the possibilities are getting me excited.

Otto promoted to Triple-A Scranton

After 65.1 strong innings with Double-A Somerset (3.17 ERA and 2.31 FIP), the Yankees moved righty Glenn Otto up to Triple-A Scranton earlier this week. He’ll make his first start with the RailRiders this weekend. Otto is sporting a 40.7% strikeout rate and a 5.5% walk rate. Going into yesterday's action, he led the minors in K-BB% by a mile (min. 60 innings):

1. Glenn Otto, Yankees: 35.3%
2. Ryan Smith, Angels: 30.5%
3. Cade Cavalli, Nationals: 28.9%
4. Caleb Kilian, Giants: 28.0%
5. Several tied at 26.7%

Otto’s 103 strikeouts currently lead the minors (the minor league strikeout leader is usually whichever one of Otto and Cavalli started most recently) and his breakout this year is attributable to good health and also a new slider we discussed a few weeks ago. These days he’s a mid-to-upper-90s fastball guy with a slider and a curveball, so three distinct pitches.

I’m not quite sure what the future holds for Otto. He was understandably passed over in the Rule 5 Draft this past offseason because he was hurt much of 2019 and spent 2020 at home. Now Otto is healthy and performing, and he’ll spend the final two months of the year in Triple-A. There’s no chance a guy like this falls through the Rule 5 Draft cracks again this winter.

The Yankees could simply add Otto to the 40-man roster and add him to the pitching stable, and use him as an up and down guy next year (or more if he shows he’s worth a longer look). They could also pull a Nick Rumbelow, and trade him after putting him on the 40-man. That’s what the Yankees did with Rumbelow in Nov. 2017. They didn’t want tying up a 40-man spot, but he had trade value.

Otto’s injury history is long and scary (it’s all arm injuries too) but so is Jonathan Loaisiga’s, and Loaisiga’s evidence you can get high-end production from these guys. Loaisiga is also a reminder you shouldn’t waste bullets in Triple-A. If you think this guy can help, might as well call him up and let him help in whatever capacity before his arm gives out again. Harsh, but that’s baseball.

At this point the only thing that would surprise me with Otto is the Yankees leaving him exposed in the Rule 5 Draft again. Can’t let that happen. I could see a trade, I could see him going on the 40-man and staying there as a depth arm, and I could even see him getting an MLB call-up before the end of the season. If he’s throwing well, why not?

Vizcaino returns

Welcome back, Alex Vizcaino. The changeup specialist and my preseason No. 13 prospect has started a rehab stint in the Florida Complex League. Vizcaino was noticeably absent during Grapefruit League play and it wasn’t until the minor league Opening Day rosters were announced that the Yankees acknowledged he was hurt. The injury was vaguely described as a “sore arm.”

In two one-inning rehab appearances, Vizcaino has allowed one run on one hit and three walks. He’s struck out four, and from what I gather he’s in Spring Training mode and building arm strength. Vizcaino probably has a few more FCL appearances ahead of him before he moves up. Double-A Somerset would make sense, though the Yankees may bring him along slowly.

Vizcaino is on the 40-man roster and I thought he had a chance to help the Yankees this year as an up and down bullpen guy, but the injury put an end to that. The priority now is making up for lost time (Arizona Fall League?) and getting him ready for 2022. And now that he’s healthy, the Yankees can’t even put Vizcaino on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man spot*. Oh well.

* Doing so would start Vizcaino’s service time clock, but who cares?

The Yankees have four pitchers on the 40-man roster who are not MLB ready (Vizcaino, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gomez, and Luis Medina) and it’s a bit of a headache. Flexibility is limited. Before the injury, I thought Vizcaino was closest to helping the Yankees as a reliever who ambushed hitters with his changeup, then the injury took him out of action. The others are still a ways off.

Maybe Vizcaino can still help the Yankees at some point this season, though it seems unlikely. We’re halfway through July now and he’s still in Spring Training mode. Just focus on preparing for 2022. At some point the bill is going to come due on these guys. Either they help at the MLB level or they get traded. Can’t tie up 40-man spots on non-elite prospects forever.

Shift happens

Just a quick note: the infield shift rule experiment at Double-A has been modified. For the first few months of the season infielders had to keep both feet on the infield dirt when the pitch was delivered. They could be positioned anywhere as long as their feet were on the dirt. Starting this past Wednesday, there must be two infielders on each side of the second base bag. MLB is testing different rule changes at every minor league level this season and they have the right to adjust the rules in-season. So far, the shift rule in Double-A is the only one to have been modified. I guess we’ll see how this goes.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Free agent lefty Cole Hamels is working out for teams in Texas today and Joel Sherman says the Yankees will be in attendance. They always attend these things, so that doesn’t necessarily mean they have sincere interest. A shoulder injury that predated the pandemic limited Hamels to one start and 3.1 innings last year, though the 37-year-old threw 141.2 innings with a 3.81 ERA (4.09 FIP) in 2019, so it wasn’t too long ago that he was an effective pitcher. My guess is Hamels wants to go to a no doubt contender rather than a team spinning its wheels like the Yankees, though adding a veteran arm wouldn’t be a bad idea. I think Hamels goes to his hometown Padres, who currently have an entire rotation on the injured list (Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, Adrian Morejon, Blake Snell) … Earlier this week Rob Manfred said seven-inning doubleheader games and the extra innings tiebreaker rule are likely to go away in the future. He said they were pandemic-related changes and aren’t part of the sport’s long-term plans. I’m a weirdo who likes the extra inning rule, but I know I’m in the minority, and it’s for the greater good that MLB gets rid of it. The MLBPA may push to keep these rules (who doesn’t want to spend less time at the office?), in which case Manfred & Co. have a bargaining chip for Collective Bargaining Agreement talks, but I think the fact Manfred has already come out and said they’re unlikely to become permanent is an indication everyone involved realizes fans hate these rules and they’re bad for the game, so shelve them … And finally, the All-Star Game jerseys were even worse than I expected. You couldn’t tell the players apart on the field and they were just boring. No variety, nothing. Seeing all the different uniforms on the field during the All-Star Game was one of baseball’s fun and unique quirks. The players didn’t like the uniforms -- “I’m actually trying to scour a couple down to see if I can just make it myself and do it that way,” Liam Hendriks told Tyler Kepner about not being able to add a White Sox All-Star jersey to his collection -- but I imagine they’re connected to a big pile of Nike money, so we might be stuck with them forever. Lame.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

George asks: Given your horrible midseason rating for Boone, are you calling for his firing now? If not, why wait until the season is over, if he is jeopardizing any chance to even make the playoffs? Thanks.

Yeah, I think the Yankees should get rid of Aaron Boone now. Is he the reason the Yankees are having a disappointing season? No. There are many factors contributing to this that are beyond the manager’s control, starting with the players badly underperforming. Boone and the coaches can’t swing the bat or throw pitches or run the bases. It’s on the players, first and foremost.

I also haven’t seen anything in his three-plus years that makes me think Boone can elevate this team in the second half. They often look unprepared, especially when sharing the field with real contenders, and fair or not, it reflects poorly on the manager. Same with the whole being much less than the sum of the parts the last two years. That reflects poorly on Boone.

I see it this way: Boone is not the No. 1 reason the Yankees are disappointing but getting rid of him is a very low downside move. The odds the Yankees regret it in a few months or a few years is small. His on-field decisions are unremarkable (he always feels one step behind top tier managers) and whatever clubhouse magic he’s supposed to work isn’t translating into wins.

Boone’s contract is up after the season -- the Yankees haven’t actually fired a manager since Stump Merrill in 1991 (Buck Showalter, Joe Torre, and Joe Girardi were all let go when their contract expired) -- and they can neatly walk away then, which will probably happen. After a season like this, there will be scapegoats. It is the way of the world.

The Yankees don’t want to fire Boone during the season and admit they were wrong about him, especially when they can simply walk away after the season, but that applies to every team and every manager ever. Sometimes you have to do it and make that difficult decision. A change now could spark the team, and if not, what have you lost? Two months of Boone? No biggie.

You can’t fire the owner and you can’t fire the players, and the manager always goes before the general manager. Coaches and the manager are the first to go, and dumping Boone is step one in righting this ship. Fire Boone, bring in an interim manager*, then conduct a thorough managerial search after the season. And don’t treat it like an entry level job either.

* Showalter is the most commonly mentioned Boone replacement on social media and I get it given his Yankees ties and the fact he’s essentially the polar opposite of Boone. I’m a John Gibbons fan and he’s currently scouting for the Braves. I bet he’d love to get back into the dugout, even for only half a season. Gibbons has always been a good kick in the ass type.

Juan asks: Freddie Freeman. Will the Braves trade him? Should the Yankees consider adding him now or in the offseason?

On the field, Freeman is clearly a fit for the Yankees. Luke Voit is awesome, but Freeman is a better hitter and a better defender, and he fits the lineup better as a lefty. 2021 is Freeman’s worst season since 2012 and he’s hitting .274/.381/.489 (132 wRC+) with 19 homers at the break, and has nearly as many walks (14.4%) as strikeouts (18.6%). Dream with me:

1. 2B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Freddie Freeman
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5-9. Everyone else

The Braves are 44-45 and four games behind the Mets in the NL East -- they have not spent a single day over .500 this year, they keep getting to .500 then losing -- and they can’t count on the Wild Card as a fallback because the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres are so good (Atlanta is seven games back of the second Wild Card spot). It’s NL East title or bust.

Ronald Acuna just went down with a season-ending knee injury and that is devastating. It could sink their season entirely. That said, there’s not much time between now and the trade deadline, and as long as the Braves are within striking distance, everything in GM Alex Anthopoulos’ track record tells us he’ll go for it. I see them adding, not subtracting*.

* Case in point: Atlanta traded for Joc Pederson to replace Acuna last night. The Braves gave up first baseman and top 15-ish team prospect Bryce Ball in the one-for-one trade. The Yankees equivalent to Ball is probably Josh Smith? Pederson would’ve helped the Yankees as a lefty hitting left fielder, though he wouldn’t have worked under the almighty luxury tax plan.

Freeman is an impending free agent and I think two things would need to happen for the Braves to trade him: 1) they crash hard before the deadline and fall out of the race, and 2) he says he’ll test free agency and indicates he won’t re-sign. Freeman feels like a Brave for life, but I guess if Mookie Betts can get traded, anyone can get traded.

If the Yankees continue their current trend of treading water and not really making up any ground in the postseason race, then I wouldn’t bother trading prospects for two months of Freeman. The 2021 Yankees aren’t worth it. If they have a great two weeks and put themselves right at the second Wild Card spot, then consider it, assuming Freeman even becomes available.

As for free agency, yes the Yankees should have interest in Freeman, and that applies to every top free agent. They’re the Yankees, and he’s a wonderful fit. Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130M deal seems like a good contract benchmark for Freeman. Goldschmidt signed that deal at the same age Freeman is now, and was an MVP caliber first baseman at the time.

Freeman could command more on the open market (Goldschmidt’s contract was an extension), and I’m sure the Braves will make a strong push to re-sign him. He’s a franchise icon and the kinda guy who gets his number retired. Are the Yankees willing to give out another monster contract? Unclear. Anthony Rizzo offers the same skill set and may come (much?) cheaper.

I expect the Braves to re-sign Freeman, possibly before he even becomes a free agent. He wants to stay and Atlanta’s window is as open as it’s going to get. Freeman is a core player and someone you build around. I’m not sure giving up prospects to get him in a trade is a smart idea given how oppressively mediocre the Yankees are, but if he gets to free agency, go for it.

Alessandro asks: I'm more interested in this during the offseason, but would moving on from Luke Voit and trading for Matt Olson make sense? He's going to start getting expensive-ish (as power hitting 1B go) in arbitration, and it's easy to see a world where the A's move him. What could that look like?

Olson is a personal favorite and he (and Matt Chapman!) is approaching the point where the Athletics typically trade their best players. He’s making real money ($5M in 2021) and will be only two years away from free agency after the season. The A’s keeping Marcus Semien as long as they did was an outlier. They usually trade their top guys before they get to free agency.

Like Freeman, Olson is a slick-fielding first baseman and a lefty bat who fits the roster better than Voit, and it’s not like he’s a slouch at the plate. He’s hitting .282/.371/.567 (156 wRC+) with 23 home runs this year, and he’s cut his strikeout rate from 26.0% from 2018-20 to 16.5% this year. It’s not a fluke either. There’s a tangible reason to buy into the strikeout rate improvement.

Olson is sneaky young (he’ll play the entire season at 27), he mashes, and he’s an excellent first baseman. One of the two or three best defenders at the position. The whole “this lefty will hit 50 homers in Yankee Stadium!” thing is overblown … but Olson might? Among lefties, he has the second highest pull rate (46.9%) and fifth lowest ground ball rate (34.8%) since 2019. Plus:

First base is one of the few positions where the Yankees have flexibility. They must diversify their lineup, that has been made crystal clear this season, though they have limited spots to do it given the contracts on the books. Voit’s the man, but my hunch (and I stress this is only a hunch) is we’re already closer to the end of Voit’s time in pinstripes than the beginning.

We discussed what two years of an above-average player could fetch in a trade recently when we pondered Aaron Judge trade scenarios. The Starling Marte trade (Pirates to Diamondbacks) seems like a pretty good trade reference for Olson. They’re both Gold Glove winning All-Stars with two years of control. Marte was a few years older at the time, but it fits well.

Arizona gave up two top 10 team prospects (righty Brennan Malone and shortstop Liover Peguero) to get Marte and the Yankees equivalent is something like one of the Luises (Gil or Medina) and Oswald Peraza. Gil or Medina and Peraza for Olson? Yeah, I’d do that. He’s an impact guy, and in theory, you can recoup a prospect(s) when you trade Voit to make room for Olson.

Like I said, Olson is a personal favorite, so maybe I’m overrating him. I think he’s an excellent fit for the Yankees though, and I don’t think I’m crazy for saying trading two prospects for two years of Olson is preferable to signing Freeman or Rizzo to a big money deal well into their 30s. They’re the Yankees and money shouldn’t matter, but it does, and Olson’s more cost effective.

Brent asks: The Yankees and Cubs. You have two franchises who have cried poverty, owners who haven't recently used their massive money advantages to benefit their teams, talented players not playing to their potential, and entry level managers in Boone and Ross. The similarities are uncanny in some ways. In your opinion, who is in better shape, both now and in the near future - the Yankees or Cubs?

The Yankees because they’re spending more money -- the Cubs cut payroll from $237M in 2019 to $216M (prorated) in 2020 to $173M in 2021 -- and their core is under control through at least next season. Rizzo, Javy Baez, Kris Bryant, and Craig Kimbrel are all free agents-to-be. The only core Cubs under control in 2022 are Kyle Hendricks and Willson Contreras. That’s it.

Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are under control next year and Gerrit Cole, DJ LeMahieu, Jordan Montgomery, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, et al are all signed or under team control beyond that. That’s not a perfect core by any means (Torres is regressing, etc.), but the Yankees have way fewer gaps to fill in the near future than the Cubs.

For all my complaining about payroll and squandering this championship window, we will never ever ever see the Yankees do something like salary dump Yu Darvish. Adam Ottavino, a good but theoretically replaceable reliever? Yes, they’ll salary dump a guy like that, but an ace starter coming off a Cy Young runner-up? No chance. We won’t see the Yankees do that.

The Yankees aren’t exactly a powerhouse in position to dominate baseball the next few years, but I’d rather be in their shoes than Chicago’s. Feels like the Cubs are on the cusp of a rebuild and I’d rather be the Yankees going forward. That said, the Cubs core has a World Series ring. The Yankees core has topped out at losing the ALCS in heartbreaking fashion.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)