Thoughts following the 2021 Draft

Day 1 as a Yankee and Sweeney is already getting the full Nick Swisher treatment. (Getty)

The three-day, 20-round, 612-pick 2021 MLB Draft is in the books. The Yankees made 20 picks, all but four from the college ranks, and they selected 13 pitchers (11 righties and two lefties) and seven position players (two catchers, four infielders, one outfielder). I’m not sure we’ll ever see another 40-round draft now that the minor leagues have been contracted. 20 rounds may be the new norm. We’ll see. Let’s dive into the Yankees’ 2021 draft class, shall we?

1. 1st round: Eastern Illinois SS Trey Sweeney. Despite all the rumors that they were looking at pitchers, the Yankees stuck to their wheelhouse on draft day, and took a bat-first college guy with their top selection (pick video). Sweeney hit .382/.522/.712 with 14 homers and way more walks (46) than strikeouts (24) in 48 games against admittedly weak competition this spring.

“We are really excited to have selected Trey Sweeney,” scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said in a statement. “He has excellent raw power and contact ability, and he can hit to all fields with strong plate discipline. At shortstop, he has a good clock, doesn’t play rushed and has good field awareness. His timing for both getting to ground balls and getting the ball across the infield is excellent. We also really like Trey’s makeup as he’s smart with good instincts. With his overall tool set, we believe he has the potential to be an impact player.”

I profiled Sweeney a few weeks ago and said the “No. 20 pick seems like it would be a reach for Sweeney” because “it’s not a truly elite bat, and you can find more well-rounded players at that slot,” and that’s still how I feel. The bat is interesting, everything else not so much. Here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s scouting report again:

Sweeney has a big leg kick and a hitch and a lot going on in his left-handed stroke, but he has outstanding hand-eye coordination and makes the timing work at the plate. He has good feel for the barrel, controls the strike zone and makes hard contact to all fields against lefties and righties, good velocity and tough offspeed pitches. His hitting ability, arm strength and bat speed should produce at least average power, perhaps more if he adds more loft to his swing.

Sweeney's below-average speed limits his effectiveness at shortstop and will necessitate a position change at the next level. He has reliable hands and solid strength but doesn't cover enough ground at short. He profiles well at third base, should be able to handle any corner infield or outfield position and may be playable at second base.

Here’s video. I see some Paul O’Neill in that swing, though Sweeney has a lot going on before the swing itself. Big leg kick, a hitch, he’s wagging his bat, just a lot of unnecessary movement I’m sure the Yankees will try to iron out. You can get away with that against Little Sisters of the Poor University in the Ohio Valley Conference. Against pro caliber pitching? Eh.

The question with Sweeney is whether he can handle velocity. He saw only 13 fastballs at 93+ mph this spring (and did not have a hit against any of them) and zero at 95+ mph, according to J.J. Cooper. Eric Longenhagen says Sweeney has a “pretty limited area of the strike zone in which he makes contact, mostly the inner third.” That doesn’t sound great!

At the same time, the Yankees surely worked Sweeney out before the draft (pre-draft workouts are common) and had him step in against the high velocity machine, if not hard-throwing minor leaguers. If you can’t hit velocity these days, you’re pretty much useless, and I’m guessing the Yankees checked that box before taking Sweeney. They are nothing if not well-informed.

Also, I feel the Yankees have earned the benefit of the doubt with this profile, the “college guy who can hit but may not have the defensive chops to stay at an up the middle position” profile. Just within the top two rounds of the last two drafts:

• 2B Trevor Hauver: .295/.456/.495 (162 wRC+) in Low-A
• SS Josh Smith: .341/.461/.674 (200 wRC+) between Low-A and High-A
• C Austin Wells: .274/.411/.484 (143 wRC+) in Low-A

The players the Yankees identified as worth a large investment (high draft pick and a big bonus) and were supposed to hit have hit coming out of the pandemic season, and look to be good investments to date. College guys who can mash have become the club’s preferred profile and the Yankees seem to know what they’re doing.

That doesn’t mean Sweeney will work out, of course. Or that the other guys will work out in the long run. Just that the early returns on this profile are promising and Sweeney is cut from the same cloth as Hauver, Wells, et al. The Yankees have sought out impact college bats in the early rounds the last few years and Sweeney, supposedly a big exit velocity guy, is the latest example.

“Early in the draft, it is completely about taking the best available player,” Oppenheimer said during a conference call today. “We’re going to have logjams. Anthony Volpe is going to be a logjam at shortstop for a lot of people. That’s the situation. You just can’t stop in the amateur world. You are not trying to take somebody because you are short on a position or you have too many. You don’t want to take a guy, you are going to get yourself in trouble. Sweeney was the best guy we thought at the time. Even though you have a Volpe coming, you still make that pick.”

Defensively, I haven’t read or heard anything suggesting Sweeney can stay at short long-term, though the Yankees are more willing to tolerate below-average glovework at premium positions than most. Plus there’s no reason to move him off shortstop now. Send him out as a shortstop and move him to another position only when it becomes absolutely necessary.

“We really see him as being able to play shortstop," Oppenheimer said today. "I am not sure why that would be written about him. He’s smooth, he’s got good hands, he runs well enough, his range is good, and he has a plus arm. Realistically, he has all the tools and intangibles to be a shortstop. We don’t see any issues why he wouldn’t stay there.” 

Sweeney’s best tool is his arm -- Brendan Kuty hears his throws at short have been clocked at 93 mph -- so moving to third base down the line would seem to make more sense than moving to second base. Might as well take advantage of that arm, right? Heck, the outfield might be a better landing spot than second, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.

“I would like to play shortstop,” Sweeney told David Lazar. “I feel confident sticking at shortstop and playing at the highest level. But I know there’s some things I need to work on, including my speed, to be able to do that. I’m confident in myself to play short, but I’ve also had experience around the rest of the infield, so there wouldn’t be a problem for me either way. Whatever I have to do to help the Yankees organization is what I’ll do.”

I didn’t have my heart set on anyone going into the draft. My favorite prospects with a chance to get to the Yankees were righties Gunnar Hoglund (my write-up) and Andrew Painter (my write-up), and neither actually got to the Yankees. The Phillies took Painter with the No. 13 pick and the Blue Jays took Hoglund right before the Yankees with the No. 19 pick. Alas.

Top high school prospects who fall out of the first round like Anthony Solometo (No. 37 to Pirates), Bubba Chandler (No. 72 to Pirates), Will Taylor (No. 554 to Rangers), and Peyton Stovall (undrafted because he said he’s going to school) are almost always asking for big money, in which case the Yankees can’t afford them given their small bonus pool. You have to take who you can sign.

Given what I know (not much), I would’ve preferred Tyler Black (my write-up, No. 33 to Brewers) to Sweeney. They’re similar prospects as lefty hitting bat-first college middle infielders, but Black faced (slightly) better competition in college, and doesn’t have all that extra stuff going on in his swing. There’s less to iron out in pro ball. That’s just my dumb amateur opinion.

The Sweeney pick is a bit of a snoozer and that’s just the way it is when you’re picking late in the first round. It can only get so exciting with the No. 20 pick in the meh draft class. Sweeney is the type of prospect the Yankees have had success with in recent years, and they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt in my opinion. Boring pick? Sure, but not a bad one.

(During the draft broadcast on MLB Network, Jonathan Mayo said the Yankees were prepared to take Maryland HS SS Jackson Merrill with the No. 20 pick had Sweeney not been available. Merrill really shot up draft boards this spring despite being one of those unspectacular “does everything well but not great” prospects. He went to the Padres with the No. 27 pick.)

2. 2nd round: Stanford RHP Brendan Beck. Once upon a time the Yankees drafted Tristan Beck, Brendan’s older brother, in the 29th round, though he missed his draft year with a back injury and was never going to sign. The Braves took a healthy Tristan in the fourth round a year later, then traded him to the Giants in the Mark Melancon deal. Enough about him though.

Brendan is a former two-way player who didn’t begin pitching full-time until 2019, and because of the pandemic, he really only has two full years as a pitcher under his belt. This spring he had a 3.15 ERA with 143 strikeouts in 108.2 innings. Only three pitchers (Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and Reds second rounder Andrew Abbott) struck out more batters in 2021.

“Brendan has quality stuff and can really pitch in addition to being a great overall athlete,” Oppenheimer said in a statement. “He was originally a position player and then eventually became Stanford’s Friday night starter. We were really happy to get him, and we see him as a Major League starting pitcher.”

As someone who recently began pitching full-time, it’s not a surprise Beck’s stuff is said to have ticked up this spring. That’s usually how it goes, right? Focus on one thing instead of two things and you get better at that one thing. Here’s part of MLB.com’s scouting report (here’s video):

A 6-foot-2 right-hander, Beck is more about his feel for pitching than an eye-popping repertoire, though his stuff was ticking upwards a bit in 2021. His fastball is now more of an average offering, sitting comfortably at 91 mph, and he’s shown the ability to reach back and get 93 mph when he needs it. The rest of his stuff, a distinct curve and slider, as well as a changeup, all grade out as average offerings.

Beck’s ability to mix all four of his pitches and throw them all for strikes allows all of his stuff to play up. He’s fun to watch because he works fast and his combination of strike-throwing and athleticism remind some a little bit of Shane Bieber when he came out of college in 2016.

First things first: forget about the Shane Bieber thing. Don’t attach that name to any prospect, because all it does is create unrealistic expectations. Beck is similar to Bieber in that he was a command guy without blow-you-away stuff in college, but Bieber made massive gains in pro ball, and expecting anyone to improve that much is unfair. Just let Beck be Beck.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Beck has been up to 96 mph this spring, and adds he is “rarely fazed on the mound and has a tendency to step up in big moments.” Here’s where I note Beck insisted Stanford wear their black jerseys during the Super Regionals last month despite the Texas heat because “it was going to be Texas Tech’s funeral,” then struck out 13 in 7.1 innings in the win.

The Yankees prioritize intangibles and it seems Beck has ‘em. The thinking behind this pick is clear. This is the build-a-pitcher era, and the Yankees selected a command guy who they hope will improve his stuff under pro instruction. By all accounts Beck is a hard worker, and his arm is fresh as a recent convert, so he has less pitching experience than most college seniors.

Beck turns 23 in October (he’s four months older than Deivi Garcia), so the Yankees see him as a late bloomer, which isn’t unreasonable as a recent convert. They don’t check IDs on the mound. If you can get outs, they don’t care how old you are, but Beck will be 24 at the end of his first pro season. I don’t love betting a second rounder on a potential late bloomer, but what do I know?

“We think he could be really close," Oppenheimer said today. "There’s not a lot that has to happen with him. There’s not a lot of development that has to go in. He just probably needs to build up innings. He’s really athletic, he throws strikes, he has four pitches. We think we have a guy that has four pitches, has command, and is athletic. We think we are getting a high-end starter.” 

3. The fallen prospects. The Yankees took two big swings in the middle rounds, grabbing prospects who came into 2021 as potential first rounders, but saw their stock slip considerably during the spring. They took Arizona HS LHP Brock Selvidge in the third round and Auburn RHP Richard Fitts in the sixth round (I hope he doesn’t go by Dick).

Selvidge has been on the radar a long time -- I had him on my mental list of draft prospects to profile coming into the year -- but he had a dreadful spring. Velocity was down, couldn’t throw strikes, delivery was a mess, the works. About as bad as draft years get. Because of that, there was some thought Selvidge was unsignable and dead set on going to LSU.

“Last summer we were able to see Brock quite a bit, and we thought he would potentially be one of the top high school pitchers in this draft,” Oppenheimer said in a statement. “We were happy with his progress this season, and at the combine he was dynamite. We were very pleased he was available when we made our pick, and we feel he is a future left-handed starter.”

The Yankees will sign Selvidge. They would not have drafted him without first nailing down (and being comfortable with) his asking price. They’re not just winging it with $637,600 worth of slot money. As with most Yankees’ picks, Selvidge’s “competitiveness and makeup is outstanding,” so says Baseball America (subs. req’d). Here’s MLB.com’s scouting report (here’s video):

He’s up to 96 mph with his fastball, sitting comfortably at 90-92 mph, throwing it with armside run. He’s learned to manipulate his heater a bit more, with some sink. He’ll throw his slider 79-84 mph as his best secondary offering, with three-quarter type tilt, though it can get slurvy at times without hard bite. He has a get-me-over kind of curve that’s a work in progress, with some scouts feeling he’d be better off focusing on the slider only. He has a changeup, but doesn’t throw it a ton … he is athletic enough to feel there will be at least average control in the future.

Fitts dealt with a foot injury this spring and his stuff was up and down, and he bounced back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. In eight starts and five relief appearances, he had a 5.88 ERA with 41 strikeouts and 10 (!) homers allowed in 41.1 innings. Fitts tried to rebuild his stock in the Cape Cod League before the draft, and instead allowed five runs in 5.1 innings.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Fitts “rarely reached the heights that (he) had flashed in the fall,” and that he’s a challenge to evaluate. Was this year just a blip? A result of the foot injury? A permanent step back? Unclear. Here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s scouting report (here’s video):

After operating with a low-90s sinker as a reliever, Fitts began employing a four-seam fastball as a starter. He showed the ability to sit at 93-95 mph for several innings and reach 97 with quality vertical life on his heater last year and has mostly held that velocity in 2021. He has two promising secondary pitches, with his upper-80s changeup with some splitter action currently a more reliable option than his improving mid-80s slider, but both have regressed this spring.

Fitts' stuff has gotten better as he has grown into his 6-foot-3 frame, which is strong enough for him to handle a starter's workload. His arm action and delivery are sound, and he throws strikes with his entire arsenal. Adding to the package is his competitiveness, which draws as much praise as his stuff.

To use a familiar name, Fitts is in a similar spot as Garrett Whitlock in 2017. Whitlock went into his draft year as a top three rounds guy, had a poor season because of injury (back trouble in his case), and the Yankees pounced in the 18th round. The Yankees didn’t get Fitts that late in the draft, but it’s the same idea. Good prospect who fell because of a non-arm injury.

Had the 2021 draft been held in, say, January rather than July, there’s a pretty good chance the Yankees would’ve had to pick between Fitts, Selvidge, and Sweeney for their first round pick. Getting all three would’ve been unlikely given where Fitts and Selvidge were at the time. They had poor springs though, and that gave the Yankees a chance at all three, so they took it.

The strategy is clear: buy low on two talented players who had a bad few months at the wrong time, and hope you can get them back to where they were coming into the spring. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t, but it’s far more interesting than drafting the typical third and sixth round fodder. I’ll never complain about this strategy. Take a big swing in case you make contact.

4. The college bats. Look at the pre-draft rankings and you won’t know what to think about fourth rounder and Louisville 2B Cooper Bowman. MLB.com ranked him the No. 171 prospect in the draft class. Baseball America (subs. req’d) had him at No. 416. I’m sure it’s happened before, but I can’t ever remember a guy being 200+ spots apart on two different lists.

The truth probably lies in the middle somewhere, and Bowman benefited from extra scouting exposure this year as teams flocked to Louisville to see No. 1 pick Henry Davis. This spring Bowman hit .293/.387/.455 with eight home runs in 48 games, and frankly that’s not good. Draft a guy in a single-digit round after he hit under .300 (and was healthy) in his draft year? Hmmm.

“Cooper is an athletic infielder who had a heck of a year,” Oppenheimer said in a statement. “He possesses good bat to ball skills, and he has a plus run tool. Defensively, he can play second base and shortstop, and he’s tough as nails. He’s a player that really grew on us.”

Unlike some of the pure college mashers the Yankees have taken in recent years (Hauver, Sweeney, Wells, etc.), Bowman is more of a speedy on-base type who stands out for his legs (20-for-24 stealing bases this year) more than his bat. Here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report (here’s video):

Bowman has a smooth right-handed swing, good feel for hitting and a patient approach, allowing him to make regular contact and get on base. He has a quick bat with solid raw power and can drive the ball out of the park from gap to gap, giving him 15-20 homer potential. He's surprisingly fast for a 6-foot, 205-pounder, recording plus to plus-plus run times and showing a knack for stealing bases.

Though he has slightly improved his arm strength since junior college, Bowman still is average at best in that regard and throws with a funky stroke, so he's better suited for second base than shortstop on an everyday basis. His quickness gives him good range at the keystone, though he needs to improve his consistency. He runs well enough to play center field if needed.

The Yankees selected Oklahoma 1B Tyler Hardman in the fifth round and he's a three true outcomes guy. He hit eight homers in 44 games against elite competition in wood bat Cape Cod League two years ago, and this spring he authored a .397/.481/.661 batting line with 12 homers in 55 games. That’s after hitting 12 homers in his previous 122 career games.

“Tyler can really hit and has a power vibe reminiscent of Luke Voit,” Oppenheimer said in his statement. “He also has solid contact skills and he hits the ball hard. Lots of coaches we respect said he was the hardest out they faced all year.”

From what I understand, Hardman has tremendous measurables (exit velocity, chase rate, etc.). He checks all the analytical boxes. He also struck out 22.5% of the time this spring, which is a lot for a college senior taken in the top five rounds. That said, every fifth rounder has flaws, and Hardman’s is the swing-and-miss. Here’s part of MLB.com’s scouting report (here’s video):

After dropping 20 pounds, Hardman is displaying better bat speed from the right side of the plate. He tracks balls well, hits high velocity as well as offspeed pitches and draws walks because he isn't afraid to work deep counts (which also leads to strikeouts). With his quicker bat to go with his strength and the leverage in his 6-foot-3 frame, he's better able to translate his at least plus raw power into home run production to all fields … Though he's moving better than ever, Hardman is still a below-average runner who may be limited to first base. He needs to clean up his footwork but projects as an average defender with arm strength to match.

Righty hitting, righty throwing first base types have a terrible track record in pro ball. They’re on the short side of the platoon and the throw to second base is awkward, so you better hit and hit big to make up for it. In the expansion era (1961 to present), only 28 right/right first basemen have cleared +10 WAR in their careers. They usually don’t get a long leash.

Hardman will probably annihilate Single-A pitching, plus he’s a bonus pool saving senior, so the pick is not just about him. Bowman is interesting as an on-base speed guy who can play one up the middle position (second) and maybe a second (center). He might get the bat knocked out of his hands in pro ball though. We’ll find out soon enough.

5. The power arms. The Yankees have a knack for finding unheralded college arms and turning them into legitimate prospects. Guys like Janson Junk, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski were all mid-to-late round picks who took significant steps forward in pro ball and are now on the prospect radar (and potential trade chips at a minimum).

As expected, the Yankees went back to the well on Day 2. Oregon LHP Robert Ahlstrom (7th round) struck out 92 in 90 innings this spring and is a three-pitch southpaw with command and a low-90s heater (video). Ahlstrom feels like he’ll be a “oh yeah he’s throwing 98 mph now” guy in a year or two. You know how it is with the Yankees and these rando pitching prospects.

USC RHP Chandler Champlain (9th) has poor stats (47 runs in 74.2 innings this spring), though he sits mid-90s and has a good curveball (video). Ohio State RHP Jack Neely (11th) is all arm strength. He’s been up to 100 mph in relief but doesn’t have a reliable breaking ball, and had a 7.76 ERA in 51 innings in two years out of junior college (video).

Virginia RHP Zach Messinger (13th) has been up to 96 mph in relief and has two distinct breaking balls, plus a changeup (video). He’s mostly 89-91 mph as a starter, but if the Yankees can work their arm strength magic and get him into the 93-95 mph range consistently, Messinger has Wesneski potential.

Southern Louisiana RHP Will Warren (8th) interests me most among the late round arms. He was a good college pitcher who struck out 98 in 114.1 innings his first three years in school. Warren went home during the pandemic, trained hard, and showed up with a mid-90s fastball this spring after sitting low-90s previously. He then struck out 95 in 91 innings this year. From Baseball America (subs. req’d):

His average fastball went from sitting 90-91 and touching 95 to sitting 91-93 mph and touching 95-97 … Warren has two distinct breaking balls—a mid-70s above-average curve (that will top 3,000 rpm) with plenty of depth and occasionally some sweep away from righthanded hitters. He mixes in a harder, tighter, average mid-80s slider … His steady improvement gives him a shot of being a useful back-of-the-rotation starter in pro ball and his breaking balls make him a viable relief option as well.

The track record is limited, but nabbing a guy who’s touched 95-97 mph with a high spin curveball in the eighth round is an extremely Yankees thing. Warren already has quality stuff, and if the Yankees can improve it even more, he’ll get real interesting real quick. In the post-sticky stuff world, pitchers who can naturally spin the ball like that are rare.

Ahlstrom and Warren are seniors and they’ll save the Yankees bonus pool money so they can spend on other players, and that’s just the way the game is played these days. Draft spending is capped and you have to make the money work. Every year the Yankees seem to nab 4-5 of these later round college pitchers and turn 2-3 of them into something better.

6. The late round unsignables. In the bonus pool era, the late rounds of the draft have become decidedly uninteresting. Teams can no longer roll the dice on a talented player, throw a bunch of money at him, and see whether he says yes. The Yankees taking Jack Leiter in the 20th round in 2019 would’ve been way, way more interesting before the bonus pools.

These days slot for every pick after the 10th round is $125,000, and every penny over $125,000 counts against the bonus pool. The Yankees have done that a few times (Josh Rogers got $500,000 as their 11th rounder in 2015, for example) but not often, and I’m not sure they’ll have the bonus pool space to go over for any of their late rounders this year.

The Yankees selected two players on Day 3 who are in position to demand more than the $125,000 slot, and may not sign. Florida HS RHP Sean Hermann (14th round) is very raw with a fastball that tops out at 90 mph, but he’s already shown very good secondary pitches and a feel for pitching. He’s committed to South Florida and could be a top 2-3 rounds pick in three years.

New Jersey HS RHP Sean Hard (20th) is a local kid from Montvale and he’s already 6-foot-5 with a mid-90s fastball. He’s all fastball at this point though, with rudimentary secondaries and no real control. Like Hermann, Hard is probably better off going to college and developing there for a few years. Not sure pro ball is the right place for him. He’s committed to Boston College.

Oppenheimer has spoken about using late round picks (picks with basically zero expected value) to begin building relationships with prospects. That’s why they drafted Leiter a few years ago. They drafted Wells out of high school in the late rounds then again out of college in the first round. It even applies to Gerrit Cole, though he was originally a first rounder. Oppenheimer drafted Cole way back when, built a relationship, and it helped the Yankees when it became time to pursue him as a free agent.

“We felt it was worth the chance. Sometimes it’s about building relationships,” Oppenheimer told Pete Caldera after drafting Leiter. “With the one little window, we felt it was worth the chance. We felt this is the right time to do it.”

I don’t expect the Yankees to sign either Hermann or Hard. I think they took them on the small chance they decide to turn pro, but mostly because they believe they can become very good players down the line, and want to have their foot in the door. You can argue with the strategy (why waste any pick?). I’m just saying that’s what I think is happening. I don’t expect either Herrman or Hard to sign.

7. The best of the rest. Maryland SS Ben Cowles (10th round) and Indiana OF Grant Richardson (17th) are college performers. Cowles hit 18 homers in 48 games this spring, and also got hit by 36 pitches in 117 career games. Huh. Richardson put up a .312/.380/.548 line in three years in school. The Yankees drafted him on his birthday … Dartmouth C Ben Rice (12th) didn’t play this year because the Ivy League canceled spring sports due to the pandemic, though he hit .350/.467/.683 with 11 homers in 43 games in the wood bat Futures League last summer (he got into a few games in the Cape Cod League this year before the draft). He also has a rocket arm and has pitched out of the bullpen occasionally. Lefty hitting catchers with pop and a strong arm will always have my attention … VCU RHP Danny Watson (15th) is an analytics darling who walked or hit nearly 20% of the batters he faced this year. His pitch characteristics are great. His ability to pitch with them effectively less so … Florida JuCo RHP Cole Ayers (16th) was selected out of the new MLB Draft League, where he played for the Mahoning Valley Scrappers, formerly an NY-Penn League team. He has a good slider that is almost exclusively a chase pitch, so he needs to improve his fastball velocity (currently 89-92 mph) and/or fastball command to make it work long-term. Here’s video … Penn State RHP Bailey Dees (19th) is 6-foot-8 and raw despite being a senior. He’s got a good fastball but is still learning basically everything else (secondary pitches, a repeatable delivery, command, etc.). Always neat when your team drafts a guy from your alma mater though … Vanderbilt C Dominic Keegan (19th) absolutely can not catch (his arm is unplayable and Vandy moved him to first base, though the Yankees announced him as a catcher), but he has huge raw power, and he hit .345/.427/.638 with 15 homers this spring. He also struck out nearly 28% of the time, which is astronomical for a draftable college hitter.

8. About the money. The draft signing deadline is Aug. 1st this year, so it’s only two and a half weeks away. Everyone in the top 10 rounds will sign. Don’t sweat any rumors saying this guy or that guy won’t sign. That’s just the player’s camp trying to create leverage. The Yankees did their homework and know exactly what it will take to sign everyone*.

* Since the bonus pools became a thing in 2012, the Yankees have signed every single player they’ve drafted in the top 10 rounds (the rounds tied to the bonus pool). Unless something scary pops up in someone’s physical and a deal falls apart (even then they’ll try to sign the player to a reduced bonus, like Ty Hensley in 2012), they’re signing everyone.

Already agreements are trickling in. Ahlstrom indicated he’s signing on Twitter. Cowles, Watson, and Ayers are on their way to Tampa, according to Nick Felice, Mark Singelais, and Scott Springer. Keegan is not signing, however. He told Matt Feld he will return to Vanderbilt. “We just lost in the national championship and I want to go back and win another championship,” he said. Here are the Yankees’ draft slots:

1st round (No. 20): $3,242,900 (Eastern Illinois SS Trey Sweeney)
2nd round (No. 55): $1,307,000 (Stanford RHP Brendan Beck)
3rd round (No. 92): $637,600 (Arizona HS LHP Brock Selvidge)
4th round (No. 122): $469,000 (Louisville 2B Cooper Bowman)
5th round (No. 153): $346,800 (Oklahoma 1B Tyler Hardman)
6th round (No. 183): $266,000 (Auburn RHP Richard Fitts)
7th round (No. 213): $208,200 (Oregon LHP Robert Ahlstrom)
8th round (No. 243): $169,500 (Southern Louisiana RHP Will Warren)
9th round (No. 273): $152,600 (USC RHP Chandler Champlain)
10th round (No. 303): $144,100 (Maryland SS Ben Cowles)

It adds up to $6,943,700. Teams can exceed their bonus pool by 5% before the harsh penalties kick in (forfeit future first rounder, etc.), and the Yankees have spent to the maximum 5% overage every year since the draft pools were put in place. They can max their bonus pool out at $7,290,885 this year, which would cost them $260,389 in penalties (75% tax on the overage).

Sweeney told Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) he expects to sign within a week or so, so that’s done. I heard he had a deal in place with a team picking in the 20s a few weeks ago but I didn’t know it was the Yankees, and hell, maybe it’s not the Yankees. Maybe it was another club and the Yankees just beat them to the pick? Probably not, but maybe.

Assuming the Yankees did cut a deal with Sweeney, that would indicate it’s below-slot. Beck is a senior and he’ll sign below-slot as well, though perhaps not substantially (i.e. $10,000 bonus or something crazy like that) because he’s a good prospect who was expected to go in the top three rounds. Dodgers righty Landon Knack, the top senior in last year’s draft (No. 60 pick), signed for about 60% of his slot value. That would put Beck in line for $784,000 or so.

Any savings from Sweeney and Beck (and fellow seniors Hardman, Ahlstrom, and Warren) will mostly go to Selvidge (and possibly some to Fitts), who was a potential first rounder coming into the year. Buying Selvidge away from LSU could run seven figures. Three years ago third rounder Ryder Green was slotted for $576.400 and the Yankees gave him $1M to skip out on his commitment to Vanderbilt. Selvidge is in that same range.

Will there be enough left over to sign Hard or Hermann in the late rounds? Maybe, but I don’t think that’s the plan. The Yankees will again spend their entire bonus pool plus the extra 5%. They do it every single year. How exactly they distribute that money is the question. As long as they’re all healthy, everyone in the top 10 rounds will sign. I have no doubt about it.

9. About the farm system. Overall, it’s been a really strong year in the farm system. Jasson Dominguez is finally playing, Volpe and Oswald Peraza have broken out as top 100 caliber prospects, and others like Hauver, Wells, and Waldichuk are putting themselves on the map. It’s not all good (Deivi’s struggling, Clarke Schmidt and T.J. Sikkema are hurt, etc), but for the most part, the system is taking a step forward.

The Yankees have a fairly vanilla draft strategy -- they use the draft to build organizational depth while targeting guys with star-caliber tools (Dominguez, Roderick Arias, etc.) in international free agency -- so the 2021 draft class doesn’t change their top 10 prospects all that much. I rank their current top 10 prospects like so (preseason rankings):

1. OF Jasson Dominguez (No. 1 preseason)
2. SS Anthony Volpe (No. 11 preseason)
3. SS Oswald Peraza (No. 10 preseason)
4. RHP Deivi Garcia (No. 2 preseason)
5. RHP Luis Medina (No. 4 preseason)
6. RHP Luis Gil (No. 5 preseason)
7. C Austin Wells (No. 6 preseason)
8. OF Estevan Florial (No. 7 preseason)
9. SS Alex Vargas (No. 9 preseason)
10. SS Trey Sweeney (2021 draftee)

Volpe and Peraza are the big risers and Schmidt (No. 3 preseason) is the big faller because he can’t stay on the field. The next five are Hauver, OF Kevin Alcantara, 2B Ezequiel Duran, C Antonio Gomez, and RHP Yoendrys Gomez in some order, and I’m willing to listen to arguments that any of those five belong in the top 10 over Sweeney.

Without thinking too long and too hard about it, I think Beck, Selvidge, and Fitts are all top 30 prospects in the system as soon as they put pen to paper, likely in the 20-30 (or even 25-30) range. Good year for the farm system overall. The 2021 draft haul adds to the depth but doesn’t add a high-end prospect to the system, so don’t expect the Yankees to shoot up the organizational rankings based on the draft class alone.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)