July 2nd, 2021: Hal, Chapman, Rotation, Lineup, Wilson, Locastro, Mailbag

Current records indicate it will take 95 wins to reach the postseason. The Yankees need to go 54-28 the rest of the way to win 95 games. That’s a 107-win pace. The good news: it’s easier to play at a 107-win pace over 82 games than 162 games. The bad news: the Yankees have to play at a 107-win pace the rest of the season just to go on the road in the Wild Card Game. Bleak. The Yankees are on pace to go 83-79 with 82 games remaining. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Weekday observations. You gotta hand it to the Yankees. Every time you think they hit rock bottom, they show us that no, it can get worse. Allowing seven runs in the ninth inning? After scoring seven in the first? Sure, why the hell not. First team in the Modern Era to do that. The 2021 Yankees in WPA graph form:

“Feel terrible for them. They deserve better than this, especially staying late. We’re past one in the morning, hanging in there to want to see us finish that off. Obviously, we certainly share in their frustration,” Aaron Boone told Betelhem Ashame when asked about the fans who hung around through the two rain delays to watch the meltdown. “... We need to go out and play full games and start hammering some people.”

On the bright side, the Yankees were rained out yesterday, so we were all able to spend our afternoons doing something more enjoyable than watching this team. I’m at a loss for words at this point. I really am. I’d be amazed at the organizational incompetence if I weren’t so annoyed. Some thoughts on the last few days.

Hal speaks

With his team embarrassing themselves on the field each night, Hal Steinbrenner awoke from his slumber and spoke to the media yesterday for the first time since before the pandemic. He didn’t even give his annual softball interview with hand-picked reporters in Spring Training this year. Who does Hal blame for this season? The players, of course. From Lindsey Alder:

“Myself, (Brian) Cashman, (Aaron) Boone, the coaches, I mean we're responsible, right? We're in charge. So at some level, we're responsible for what's going on. But make no mistake about it: my opinion, the majority of the responsibility -- whether it's the responsibility of inconsistent offense or bad baserunning, etc. -- that responsibility lies with the players. They're the ones on the field, right? They're a group of very talented professional athletes who are playing this game at the highest level in the world. They need to fix this problem.

“They need to fix the problem because everyone -- including our fan base, rightfully so -- has had enough, quite frankly. It's enough. They know that, and you know you're seeing them say that they're taking it seriously. They had a team-only meeting a couple days ago, which, in my opinion, is always the best type of meeting. Peers, holding other peers accountable is, in my belief, the most effective type of meeting that can occur. We all can share the blame, but the majority of the blame lies with them.”

On one hand, yes, Hal is correct. The blame always starts with the underperforming players. I've written that I don't know how many times the last few weeks. On the other hand, maybe don’t throw them under the bus so casually? “We’re all to blame, starting with myself, and it’s going to take all of us to turn this thing around.” See how easy that is? 

Again, Hal is not wrong. The players are to blame. But you own the team and you approved this roster every stop of the way! Own it. When the Yankees win the World Series, Rob Manfred is going to hand the trophy to Steinbrenner first. You don't get to pretend you're not part of the problem when things are going poorly and then expect to put your hands on the trophy first. Hal is to blame as much as anyone.

As far as exceeding the $210M luxury tax threshold at the trade deadline, Hal told Bryan Hoch he will “seriously consider” it, citing the Masahiro Tanaka signing eight years ago as evidence of his willingness to pay luxury tax. In related news, Tanaka is pitching in Japan this year because the Yankees are unwilling to pay the luxury tax. Interesting example there, Hal. Glad the owner will "seriously consider" letting the front office improve the team.

Following Gerrit Cole’s introductory press conference Steinbrenner said he expects to win championships “plural” with Cole. Less than two years later he chopped about $50M off payroll and will only “seriously consider” allowing his front office to make upgrades. How does that fit into the championships “plural” plan? Because from where I sit, it looks like it makes winning championships “plural” a lot less likely.

I don’t want an owner who yells and screams and calls out his players (unless he does it in a hilarious way, which Hal doesn’t have the charisma to pull off). I want an owner who stays in the shadows and spends money on the roster commensurate to how much he makes off it. That’s not too much to ask, is it? The Yankees have the former but not the latter, and Hal’s less than impressive conference call confirmed it. Where does the buck stop with this team? I have no idea. The owner is no leader.

Aside from that, Steinbrenner played all the hits. He gave Boone and his coaching staff a vote of confidence (“Nobody is working harder than the coaches”), said he believes in the team (“They just haven't played up to their potential that I believe they still have”), and dismissed questions about how his father would handle things (“Oftentimes it didn't help (when he fired people)”).

Hal was never going to say anything headline-grabbing yesterday and he wasn’t going to throw his coaches or front office under the bus. It’s not his style. At some point the owner has to speak to the public when the team is playing this poorly and underperforming this much and that’s all yesterday was. It was a proof of life “yeah yeah yeah I’m paying attention” conference call.

Chapman’s struggles

Hard to believe this is the same Aroldis Chapman who was out of this world dominant in April and May, isn’t it? Chapman has allowed 12 runs in his last eight games and 5.2 innings (he averaged 12.3 runs allowed per season from 2014-16), and he’s walked eight of the last 22 batters he’s faced (36.4%). Opponents are hitting .464/.583/.821 against him in those eight games. What the hell?

The grand slam Wednesday was the first grand slam Chapman has allowed in his career, and it was only the fourth homer he’s allowed to a lefty hitter. Luke Scott took him deep in 2011, Rafael Devers and Yonder Alonso took him deep in 2017, and now Jared Walsh took him deep in 2021. The pitcher who was so excellent earlier this year seems so far gone.

“Just struggling trying to command my fastball,” Chapman told Ashame following the meltdown Wednesday. “It’s tough when you’re trying to get strikes with it and you’re not getting it … When you’re trying to locate and use that pitch and it’s not the way you want it, you run into trouble, and I think that’s the main cause for me now.”

These are the facts about Chapman. One, his velocity has been fine, so it doesn’t seem like he's playing through an arm injury. Two, Wednesday was Chapman’s first appearance in a week, and when he goes too long between appearances, he tends to lose the strike zone. Walking the bases loaded was not the most surprising outcome (giving up a homer to a lefty was the surprising outcome).

Three, Chapman is pitching with a broken nail on his middle finger and that’s no fun. Four, he’s prone to losing the strike zone for stretches of time no matter his workload. He has a career 11.7% walk rate, and had a 12.0% walk rate from 2018-20. At one point in July 2019, he walked 11 batters in an 8.2-inning stretch. Eight walks to the last 22 batters  is nothing we haven’t before. Random bouts of (extreme) wildness are part of the Chapman experience.

And five, MLB is cracking down on foreign substances. We’re a little more than a week into the official enforcement period, but it’s been a month since word got out enforcement would soon ramp up. Chapman’s spin rates have held steady (the peaks are games in which he threw a lot of fastballs and the valleys are games in which he threw a lot of splitters) …

… though not everyone uses foreign substances to increase spin. Some guys use it just to improve their grip and better control the ball. “I do not think that's part of the problem. I feel strongly that that's not part of the problem,” Boone told Max Goodman when asked whether Chapman’s problems are related to the crackdown. Really though, who knows?

I’ve seen Chapman go through enough bouts of wildness to know this will likely pass, though I'm more worried now than in the past because of the foreign substance crackdown. What really worries me is how hittable he’s been. 13 hits and three homers in his last eight games? This guy never gets squared up like that. It’s only 5.2 innings, so not a huge sample, but it’s worrisome.

As long as Chapman is healthy (and there are no indications he isn’t other than the nail), then the Yankees have no real choice other than to keep running him out there, and hope he gets himself straightened out. They absolutely should remove him from the closer’s role until that happens. You can’t continue using him in close games when he’s pitching like this. Once he gets right, put him back in the ninth inning. For now though, put him in a lower leverage role.

Rotation woes in June

June was a very rough month for the rotation. The bullpen was very good aside from Chapman’s recent meltdowns (which are a big deal, obviously), but the rotation was poor. Here’s what the rotation has done each month this season:

• April: 3.79 ERA (3.61 FIP) with 28.1 K% and 6.5 BB% in 128.1 IP
• May: 3.24 ERA (3.52 FIP) with 26.7 K% and 6.9 BB% in 158.1 IP
• June: 5.33 ERA (4.86 FIP) with 20.4 K% and 7.9 BB% in 130 IP

Offense has been up around the league the last few weeks because offense always ticks up in June, and probably because of the sticky stuff crackdown as well. The decline in the rotation’s performance goes well beyond the “everyone is scoring more now” excuse though, and ditto the “Corey Kluber got hurt” excuse too. This isn’t happening because one guy got hurt.

Jameson Taillon is firmly in the Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, Michael Pineda, et al category of starters we microanalyze each time out hoping this is the start that turns his season around, even though this is just who he is. Taillon has a built-in excuse because he’s coming back from his second Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t been good at all. Figures the Yankees would trade for the one Pirates pitcher who doesn’t get better after leaving Pittsburgh.

Mike King battles but is more suited for a swingman role at this point. He badly needs an opener (10 first inning runs in six starts, and the defense turned a triple play in the only first inning he didn’t allow a run) and yet the Yankees keep hanging him out there to dry in the first inning. Are they planning on doing something to improve their chances of winning at some point? Giving King an opener is such an easy and obvious move. We’ve seen them use openers before too. It’s not like we’re asking them to do something new.

Also, Domingo German has collapsed. 22 runs in 26 innings in June. German took a 3.06 ERA into June, but the various estimators (FIP, DRA, xERA, etc.) pegged him as a true talent 4.50-ish ERA guy, and now here he is with a 4.50 ERA (4.76 FIP). This happened in 2019 too, remember. German started well, then collapsed. He failed to complete five innings in each of his last four starts. Yankees starters failed to complete five innings 10 times in 26 starts in June.

Even Gerrit Cole was uneven last month, tossing two duds around three good starts en route to a 4.65 ERA (5.64 FIP) in June. Is the foreign substance crackdown to blame? Probably! But it’s really only two poor starts, and I don’t think we should assume the June 2021 version of anyone is their true talent level in the post-sticky stuff era. Give them a chance to adjust their pitching style/find new ways to cheat. It takes time.

Point is, the rotation was very bad in June. I don’t know how the Yankees are supposed to go on any kind of sustained run with German, King, and Taillon starting three out of every five games. They’re putting the Yankees in early holes and taxing the bullpen. Kluber and Luis Severino are still weeks away and Deivi Garcia is a mess in Triple-A, so the Yankees don’t have any better internal options. For better or worse, this is the group they have.

Even if the Yankees decide not to go for it at the trade deadline, they should bring in an innings guy to lighten the load on everyone else. The Twins just designated Matt Shoemaker (who is very bad) for assignment and he’ll only cost the prorated league minimum once he clears waivers and is released. What do the Rockies want for Jon Gray? Feels like the Yankees need to add an arm(s) just to get through the season at this point.

A set lineup?

Well, set-ish. The Yankees used the same lineup in back-to-back games for the first time this season earlier this week, and while broadcasters seem to spend an inordinate amount of time lamenting the daily lineup changes (every team does it, come on already), the Yankees have settled on a fairly set lineup the last two weeks or so. Consider:

• Aaron Judge started 14 straight games in the field prior to Wednesday. He went a month without starting more than two straight games in the field earlier this year.
• Giancarlo Stanton has started the last 15 games and was in yesterday’s lineup before the rainout. Normally not notable for a DH, but the Yankees rest him as much as anyone.
• DJ LeMahieu has started 32 straight games, all in the field, and was in yesterday’s lineup before the rainout. The last game he didn’t start was the game Kluber got hurt.
• Luke Voit has started every game since returning and was in yesterday’s lineup before the rainout even though Boone initially said he was planning to ease him back in.
• Gary Sanchez wasn’t in yesterday’s lineup before the rainout (day game after a long night game), but he’s played the last 18 games (14 starts). Even when he hasn’t started, he’s pinch-hit and caught the last few innings.

Judge has played 75 of 80 games this season, he has a history of injuries, he’s been playing with vague “lower body soreness” much of the year, he’s played a bunch of center field because the roster is a mess, and it’s been 100-something degrees all week. The guy can take one game off. The Yankees know things we don’t and Judge is too important to futz around with.

“Just a day. One that I feel like he really needs,” Boone told Greg Joyce about Judge sitting Wednesday. “Today’s a very hard one, with all we’re going through as a club and obviously who he is to our team. But I also have to, at times, keep the big picture in mind, especially with him. Trying to make sure we get him posting as much as possible, which obviously he’s done a ton this year. But today was a day that I was pretty convicted he needed to be down.”

The problem isn’t sitting regulars now and then. It’s not having better options to fill in than Clint Frazier and Rougned Odor, but I digress. The point I want to make is the Yankees have cut back on their rest days recently. Judge started 14 straight games, Stanton started 15 straight games, Sanchez caught a day game after a night game last week, etc.

There are two possible reasons. One, the Yankees brought their guys along slowly early in the season so they could turn them loose in the summer months and down the stretch. That doesn’t necessarily mean zero days out of the lineup (that’s just not a thing that is going to happen with this team or really any team these days), just fewer than earlier in the season.

And two, the Yankees have dug themselves a hole and need to start banking wins. This is the more likely explanation. Boone said it himself the other day: the season is on the line. That means playing your guys more than usual, at least until the Yankees put themselves in a better spot in the standings. And again, that doesn’t necessarily mean zero days out of the lineup. It could mean fewer than usual.

We have seen fewer rest days the last few weeks and given the results on the field, it hasn’t worked. I do think this is the new normal though. Either until the Yankees completely fall out of the race or they climb back into a postseason spot, we’re going to see the regular lineup on the field more often than not. The time for regular rest is over.

Wilson’s return

It’s not all bad news. Justin Wilson returned earlier this week and Wednesday night he threw his best inning as a Yankee since, uh, 2015. Three up, three down, one strikeout on 10 pitches, and his velocity was up roughly 2 mph from where it was before he went on the injured list.

With Chapman broken and Zack Britton hurt, the Yankees are going to need someone to pick up the slack in the late innings, and it would be cool if Wilson could be that guy. He certainly looked the part of a late-inning reliever Wednesday night. Wilson has a pretty good track record and he wasn’t healthy earlier this year. Not crazy to think he can be really good moving forward.

Also, even if the Yankees continue to spin their wheels in the standings, Wilson pitching well would raise his stock prior to the trade deadline. The Yankees aren’t going to get a ton for him either way, though maybe now it’s a Grade-C prospect instead of straight salary relief. Bottom line, Wilson pitching well is nothing but a positive. Wednesday was a welcome sight.

The Great Ohtani

How is Shohei Ohtani real? I know the Yankees roughed him up as a pitcher the other night, but he took a 2.58 ERA (3.53 FIP) with 33.1% strikeouts in 11 starts and 59.1 innings into that game, and he’s hitting .277/.360/.685 (176 wRC+) with an MLB leading 28 home runs. And he runs like the wind too. Remember how close he made his game-ending groundout Tuesday?

Ohtani has thrown the fastest pitch by a starter not named Jacob deGrom this season (101.1 mph), and his under-the-hood Statcast numbers as a hitter are insane:

The guy throws as hard as Aroldis Chapman, hits the ball as hard as Aaron Judge, and runs as fast as Tyler Wade. And he has a great head of hair too. Given what he’s doing and the caliber of competition he’s facing (i.e. the most athletic and talented players ever), it’s not crazy to say he is having maybe the best season in baseball history. He’s been that good.

Ohtani was dead set on playing on the West Coast when he came over from Japan, so he never seriously considered the Yankees. He was subject to the international spending restrictions, so the Yankees couldn’t simply offer more and more money until he changed his mind. Ohtani went to the Angels and the domino effect on the Yankees is incalculable.

Had they signed Ohtani, the Yankees likely don’t make the Stanton trade, and as much as I love Giancarlo, that would’ve left them a lot of money to spend on other needs under the luxury tax plan, and given them a sorely needed lefty power bat. Then again, who’s to say they wouldn’t have spent the savings on, say, Cole Hamels and Daniel Murphy and Rick Porcello? The grass isn’t always greener.

We also can’t assume Ohtani would have become this with the Yankees. His entire career path would have changed. New city, new environment, new coaches, new everything. You can’t expect to change all that and get the same player. Does Judge become the player he is today had he signed with the Athletics out of high school as their 31st round pick in 2010? Almost certainly not.

The Yankees haven’t exactly knocked it out of the park when it comes to nurturing young talent the last few years, and I have a hard time believing they’d let Ohtani play as much as the Angels have this year. He plays almost every game, even the days after he pitches. The Yankees are so obsessive with rest that I see no way he plays this much, and has the season he’s having. They’d handle him with kid gloves.

I am both glad and disappointed Ohtani is all the way out on the West Coast. We don’t have to watch him abuse the short porch all summer, but we also don’t get to see him as often. I mean, yeah, I can watch Ohtani any time I want thanks to the internet, but seeing him in your building playing your team is different. What a talent. The guy is a video game create-a-player.

2. Yankees trade for Locastro. The Yankees have traded for a Diamondbacks center fielder. Just not the good one. Yesterday the Yankees announced they’ve acquired Tim Locastro in a 1-for-1 trade with Arizona. Righty Keegan Curtis went the other way. I mentioned Locastro as a trade possibility a few weeks ago. Here’s what I wrote at the time:

The skinny: That’s former Yankee Tim Locastro to you. Very briefly a former Yankee. The Yankees acquired Locastro from the Dodgers in a minor trade in Nov. 2018, then sent him to the D’Backs in another minor trade in Jan. 2019, when they needed to open a 40-man roster spot for DJ LeMahieu. He’s spent the last two years as Arizona’s extra outfielder.

Locastro, 29 next month, managed a .367 OBP and a 101 wRC+ in 332 plate appearances from 2019-20. He rarely walks (6.5%) but has a knack for getting hit by pitches. Since 2018, he ranks tenth in hit-by-pitches and 412th in plate appearances. Locastro is very fast (third in average sprint speed) and he gets hit by a lot of pitches. That’s his game.

For the Yankees, Locastro would be a real fourth outfielder and an upgrade over Ryan LaMarre, and that’s about it. The cost shouldn’t be high because it’s a dime a dozen skill set (offer them a non-top-30 prospect like, say, sleeper righty Mitch Spence, and say take it or leave it), and he would fill a need. A very small depth upgrade, but an upgrade nonetheless.

Confession: I heard the Yankees were after Locastro before I wrote that post a few weeks ago, and Spence was among the names being discussed. Arizona first asked about Mike King and Nick Nelson, but that wasn’t going to happen, and eventually they moved onto bullpen types like Curtis and Spence. Was hoping they’d make me look smart. Alas.

Anyway, Locastro is a legitimate center fielder with that weird ability to get hit by pitches, and he’ll be one of the few Yankees who doesn’t look like he’s playing in slow motion. Aaron Judge will no longer have to play center field against lefties, and Tyler Wade won’t have to play the outfield at all, though he handled himself well enough out there. It’s a small bench upgrade.

Clint Frazier exited Wednesday’s game with dizziness and Aaron Boone didn’t have an update yesterday other than to say Clint is going for tests. Hopefully it’s just heat exhaustion, like Dylan Bundy the other night (minus the puking on the field). Frazier has a concussion history though, so every dizzy spell is worth looking into. Gotta make sure the brain is okay.

“It kind of came out (of nowhere),” Boone told Peter Botte about Frazier’s dizziness. “To get that word in the second inning or whatever it was, yeah, we’re just trying to get our arms around this and see what we can find out. Hopefully get him right.”

I think Locastro is taking Frazier’s roster spot one way or the other. If the dizzy spell sends Clint to the injured list, then Locastro takes his roster spot. Easy peasy. If not, then I think Frazier is going to Triple-A. He hasn’t hit (.186/.317/.317 and 83 wRC+) and he’s played poor defense too. We’re 80 games into the season. I like Clint, but enough is enough.

Hopefully Frazier is healthy and can go to Triple-A to get himself on track. That would be ideal. Locastro does have a minor league option himself though, so maybe he’s the one heading to Triple-A. I don’t think the Yankees traded for him only to send him down though. The Yankees have had an open 40-man roster spot since outrighting LaMarre last month, so no other move is required to accommodate Locastro. Hooray for a real backup center fielder. Only took six weeks.

(Curtis, 25, was a 22nd round pick in 2018, and this year he has a 3.94 ERA and 1.90 FIP with 39.1% strikeouts and 10.1% walks in 16 Double-A relief innings. He’s a mid-90s fastball guy with a high spin breaking ball. The Yankees dig up 3-4 Keegan Curtises every draft. He is the kinda prospect the Yankees should never hesitate to trade for MLB help.)

3. All-Star Game update. The All-Star Game is only 11 days away (doesn’t it feel like the season just started?) and the full rosters will be announced Sunday. Then there will be a few days of naming injury replacements. Here are some thoughts on the Yankees and the latest All-Star Game developments.

Judge voted as a starter

The All-Star Game starters were announced last night and, as expected, Aaron Judge will be in the outfield. It's his third All-Star Game selection and third start. He finished second in the outfield voting behind the injured Mike Trout. Trout, Judge, Teoscar Hernandez, Byron Buxton, and Michael Brantley were the top five in that order. Trout and Buxton are hurt, so it’ll be Judge with Hernandez and Brantley in the All-Star Game starting lineup. (I guess that means Judge is playing center?)

Marcus Semien won the voting at second base, so DJ LeMahieu won’t start at Coors Field, his old stomping grounds. No other Yankees advanced to Phase 2 of the voting. It’ll be Judge by his lonesome in the starting lineup, unless Gerrit Cole starts on the mound, which is a distinct possibility. Here are the full All-Star Game starters and the voting results.

As noted, the rest of the All-Star rosters will be announced Sunday. Even with the uneven June, Cole is going to make it. Aroldis Chapman’s recent hiccups have knocked him out of All-Star Game consideration, I think. I also don’t think it would be the worst thing in the world for him to rest those days. Chapman’s been to enough All-Star Games (six already).

I think Gary Sanchez makes it thanks to his recent hot streak (Gary has been hot longer than he was bad at this point). Going into yesterday’s games 23 American League catchers had at least 100 plate appearances. Here’s where Gary ranked among those 23 catchers:

• AVG: .238 (5th)
• OBP: .347 (3rd)
• SLG: .495 (5th)
• wRC+: 129 (4th)
• HR: 14 (3rd)
• WAR: +1.6 (4th, includes framing)

WAR says Yasmani Grandal deserves to go to the All-Star Game ahead of Sanchez, but come on. Is MLB really gonna send a guy hitting .186 to the All-Star Game? How fast will Joe Buck and John Smoltz put the television audience to sleep while explaining the value of pitch-framing?

Managers no longer select All-Stars. Fans pick the starters, a player vote picks the next 17 players, then the Commissioner’s Office fills out the rest of the 32-man roster (if anyone has to be replaced due to injury, they take whoever’s next in the player voting). AL manager Kevin Cash won’t be able to pick his guy in Mike Zunino, which bodes well for Sanchez.

A fourth place team sending three players to the All-Star Game may seem excessive but it happens all the time. Every single year. Judge is already in, Cole is a lock, and I think Sanchez is going too. Chapman still has a chance but has really hurt his case, and there are always a ton of deserving pitchers ready to replace anyone.

(Joel Sherman reports MLB will not conduct foreign substance inspections during the All-Star Game, so I'm look forward to Cole throwing his best inning of his season. In all seriousness, the sticky stuff checks are an eyesore and the All-Star Game is a meaningless exhibition. No one needs to see that when you’re trying to showcase the game’s top talent.)

Dominguez, Medina going to Futures Game

Jasson Dominguez is going to the Futures Game and I am pleasantly surprised. There was no precedent for a player this inexperienced going to the Futures Game, but it’s a showcase of the game’s top prospects, and Dominguez belongs. At 18 years and 154 days on game day, I believe he’ll be the second youngest Futures Gamer ever (Vlad Guerrero Jr. was 18 years and 115 days in 2017.)

“Is this premature to have someone unwrapped like this in a Futures Game? The answer is yes,” Brian Cashman told Jonathan Mayo earlier this week. “At the same time, we can’t deny it’s an experience he will learn from. Good or bad, it’s a growth opportunity. We just decided to take advantage of it if they decided to select him.”

Dominguez is the first player ever selected to the Futures Game without playing in a full season league, though that’s not his fault. If not for the pandemic, he would’ve made his debut in rookie ball last year, and likely been in Low-A this year. This isn’t an All-Star Game where players “deserve” to go. It is MLB highlighting the stars of tomorrow, and Dominguez is a natural fit.

Earlier this week Dominguez made his long-awaited pro debut and he is 0-for-5 with five walks, three strikeouts, and a hit-by-pitch in three games in the Florida Complex League. Here’s video. That boy got some bat speed. I’m looking forward to watching Dominguez hit some bombs in the thin mountain air at Coors Field. It’s only a one-game look, but I can’t wait.

In other Futures Game news, Luis Medina is also heading to Denver. He’s on the 40-man roster and thus a big league call up option, so the fact the Yankees are letting him go to the Futures Game tells us they don’t consider him an MLB option right now. That is not surprising at all, though now we have confirmation. Not even a long shot call up candidate at this point.

Medina is doing Medina things this year, which means lots of strikeouts (35.2%) and grounders (55.8%), but also lots of walks (15.6%) in 46.2 innings split between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset. A few rough outings are skewing his 4.05 ERA (five times in 10 starts he’s allowed no more than one run). Hopefully Good Medina shows up in Denver.

Here are the full Futures Game rosters. FCL Yankees hitting Rachel Balkovec is serving as the American League hitting coach, which is cool. Balkovec was believed to be the first full-time female hitting coach in pro ball when the Yankees hired her in Nov. 2019.

Stanton skipping Home Run Derby

A few weeks back Judge and Sanchez said they’re skipping the Home Run Derby this year. Both said they’re open to doing it in the future (Judge said he’ll only do it if the All-Star Game is in New York), but want to rest this year. Giancarlo Stanton recently told Marly Rivera the same thing. He’s open to doing it again in the future, but is skipping it this year.

Four of the eight Home Run Derby participants have been named and give MLB credit, they’re picking the right guys: Pete Alonso (defending champ), Trey Mancini (feel-good story as cancer survivor), Shohei Ohtani (most exciting player in the sport), and Trevor Story (player from host team). Vlad Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. have said they’re out, which is a bummer.

I say this every year despite not knowing whether it’s even true: MLB wants a Yankee in the Home Run Derby to draw eyeballs. Judge, Sanchez, and Stanton are out. Gleyber Torres forgot how to hit for power and Clint Frazier forgot how to hit period, so forget them. LeMahieu would be an unusual Home Run Derby player, but he has Rockies ties, so maybe?

The obvious pick would be Luke Voit even though he’s been hurt most of the year. He is the reigning MLB home run champ and he said he wanted to do it in 2019*. Does he still want to do it after the injuries? Unclear. Wouldn’t surprise me to see MLB invite him though. If Voit is up to it, I say let him do it. It’s been a while since we last got to root for a Yankee in the Home Run Derby (Judge and Sanchez in 2017). It’s fun.

* While looking for that story, I stumbled across an article about Miguel Andujar beating Voit in the 2015 Florida State League Home Run Derby. Small world.

As for the potential post-Home Run Derby slump, that’s a myth that has been debunked many times over. Pick eight players at random and chances are one or two (or more) will be worse in the second half than in the first half. Stanton has even said the 2017 Home Run Derby helped him lock in his swing and go on that MVP run in the second half (33 homers in 73 games).

Maybe there will be a Yankee in the Home Run Derby this year, maybe (probably) not. MLB has done a fine job picking players so far and I assume they’ve already asked Ronald Acuna, Joey Gallo, and Juan Soto. Speaking from experience, the Home Run Derby is way more fun in person than on television. If you ever get a chance to go, I recommend it.

4. 2021 draft prospect: Indiana HS SS Colson Montgomery. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

Three high school players named Montgomery could go in the first round this year. Benny is an outfielder who’s been connected to the Yankees. Braden is a two-way guy with first round talent who may slip because he’s considered a tough sign. Colson shot up draft boards this year after entering the spring as more of a second or third round player. (The Montgomerys aren’t related.)

Montgomery (Colson, that is) turned 19 in February and is one of the oldest high school players in the draft class. He’s also a standout basketball and football player, though his future is on the diamond. Last summer was a mixed bag in showcase events. Sometimes Montgomery dominated (as an older player should) and other times he had trouble with high-end pitching.

MLB.com ranks Montgomery as the No. 25 prospect in the draft class. Baseball America (subs. req’d) has him a bit lower at No. 43, though he entered the spring as their No. 121 prospect, which tells you how much he’s improved his stock the last few months. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Montgomery has a good left-handed swing that should allow him to hit for average and power. He's most effective when he uses the entire field rather than trying to pull pitches out of the park, and his approach got more consistent throughout the summer. His frame resembles Corey Seager's at the same stage of their careers and he has the strength and bat speed to develop similar pop.

Though he plays shortstop in high school, Montgomery has fringy speed and figures to outgrow the position once he fills out his 6-foot-4 frame. He moves well for his size and should become at least an average defender with a solid arm at the hot corner.

Older high school players have a poor track record in pro ball, though that has not scared the Yankees away in recent years. Blake Rutherford (2016 first round) and Anthony Seigler (2018 first round) were both older high school prospects, but given their careers to date, maybe that’s a sign the Yankees should steer clear of 19-year-old high schoolers in the draft.

I’ve heard (and Jim Callis has since corroborated) the Mets are trying to cut an underslot deal with Montgomery for the No. 10 pick. Brett Baty, their 2019 first rounder, was an older high school draftee and he’s mashing this year, which has apparently given them the confidence to go back to the well. Montgomery may come off the board long before the Yankees pick.

A sweet swinging lefty will always have a place in the Yankees lineup, and Montgomery fits the increasingly popular “bat control guy without a set long-term position” profile. Get someone who can hit and worry about power (because the ball changes every year) and position (defense can be mitigated with shifts) later. Austin Wells was a similar prospect going into last year’s draft.

Because he’s already 19, Montgomery will be a draft-eligible sophomore in two years, giving him more leverage than the typical high school kid. The Yankees don’t have any extra picks and thus a fairly small bonus pool ($6.9M), and if they don’t think they can sign Montgomery (or any player, really), they won’t take him. They’re going to take someone they know they can sign.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees received outfielder Aldenis Sanchez as the player to be named in the Mike Ford trade with the Rays, the team announced yesterday. Sanchez, 23 in September, has never played above rookie ball and is 2-for-8 in two Florida Complex League games this season. Last year Eric Longenhagen called him a “speedy (outfielder) with some contact skills.” He’s the fringiest of fringe prospects. The Yankees were never going to get anything exciting for Ford. The cash portion of the trade ($100,000, or double the usual waiver fee) was the real get … And finally, Kelsie Heneghan reports there will indeed be a minor league postseason this year. The initial plan called for no postseason in case the pandemic postponed a bunch of games that had to be rescheduled after the season (so minor league teams got their gate revenue). That is no longer a concern, so now the top two teams in each Double-A, High-A, and Low-A league will play a best-of-five series to decide a champion. There won’t be a postseason in the complex leagues and the Triple-A postseason format is still to be determined. That’s good. Playing a full season with no champion awarded would be lame for the players. Glad they’re able to squeeze in a postseason. Given how much winning the Yankees have done in the minors this year, they could have a few affiliates playing for titles come September.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Paul asks: The bullpen has largely been a strength of this team so far, though it's starting to show some cracks. The heavy usage has to be playing a role here, they have multiple guys among the league-leaders in innings (Loaisiga / Green / Luetge are all top 10 in baseball). Over-usage feels like a very real thing that is happening here. Even Chapman pitched 4 days out of 6 recently while warming up the other 2 days. How is this sustainable?

It’s not and I’m worried about the bullpen workload too. Mike King and Jameson Taillon don’t pitch deep into games, and Domingo German hasn’t lately either, so the bullpen has really had to wear it the last month or so. Corey Kluber and Luis Severino are still weeks away, so there’s no high-end help on the way. It’s a problem.

Here is the relief innings leaderboard going into yesterday’s games:

1. Craig Stammen, Padres: 44.2 IP
2. Duane Underwood Jr., Pirates: 44.2 IP
3. Chris Stratton, Pirates: 42.2 IP
4. Jonathan Loaisiga, Yankees: 42.2 IP
5. Gio Gallegos, Cardinals: 42 IP
6. Yusmeiro Petit, Athletics: 41.2 IP
7. John King, Rangers: 41 IP
8. Adam Plutko, Orioles: 40.2 IP
9. Lucas Luetge Yankees: 40 IP
10. Chad Green, Yankees: 40 IP

The Yankees have three guys in the top 10 in relief innings. The Cardinals and Rangers are the only other teams with three guys in the top 25.

Here’s the crazy thing: Green, Loaisiga, and Luetge are all top 10 in relief innings, but they’re all outside the top 50 in relief appearances. When those guys pitch, they tend to pitch multiple innings. The Yankees have 76 relief appearances of at least four outs this year, fifth most in baseball, and the teams ahead of them are either very bad or fond of using an opener.

It’s important to note there’s a big difference between tossing the ball around in the bullpen and loosening up, and actually warming up to pitch. The latter is more taxing and the Yankees (and every other team, I imagine) monitor that and incorporate it into their bullpen planning. Aroldis Chapman does get up a lot, but rarely do we see warm up with intent and not get into the game.

The Yankees give us lots to complain about these days but they are very good and very diligent when it comes to giving their relievers rest. They never use guys three days in a row, and those multi-inning outings are often followed by two days of rest, not just one. This dates back to the Joe Girardi era too, so it’s coming from upstairs. The coaching staff isn’t doing it on their own.

Still, the volume of innings is concerning. Long man Luis Cessa threw 81 innings in 2019. Before him, the last Yankees reliever to throw 80 innings was Dellin Betances in 2015 (84 innings). The Yankees have three guys on pace for 80+ innings right now. They haven’t had multiple relievers throw 70+ innings in a season since 2014 (Betances had 90 and Adam Warren had 78.2).

Either the Yankees will continue running these guys out there and finish the season with three dudes at or approaching 80+ innings, or they’re going to scale back, and give a bunch of innings to other relievers. That’s doable with Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson now healthy, and Zack Britton hopefully back soon. Green, Loaisiga, and Luetge have gone above and beyond already.

John asks: Everyone’s thinking about the kind of stretch required for the Yankees to get back into the race, because but how bad would they have to be to get a top ten pick for the first time since 1992 when they picked that one shortstop who had a /sarcasm font/ decent career?

Not as bad as I thought, which is a bummer.. The Yankees currently have the 15th best record in baseball at 41-39. The Phillies currently have the tenth worst record at 37-41, so if they (and everyone else) continue at their current pace, the Yankees would need to go 34-48 the rest of the way to finish below Philadelphia in the standings and get a top 10 pick.

Going 34-48 the rest of the way is doable and I’m not being snarky. I’m just saying it’s not that much worse than the Yankees have played to date (and since last year, really). If the Yankees had to go, say, 24-58 to get a top 10 pick, then I’d say forget it. No chance they’re that bad. But 34-48? Yeah, I could see it. It’s not completely insane at this point.

Jeff asks: This comes from my 9 year old (Gabe) on our way to baseball practice the other day. Can a player sue another player for intentionally hitting them with a pitch? Or (my addition) is all of that precluded by the CBA and other rules in place?

As far as I know, there’s nothing in the Uniform Player’s Contract prohibiting legal action in the event an intentional hit by pitch causes an injury, but winning the lawsuit would seem difficult. I imagine the pitcher who hit the batter intentionally would argue getting hit by a pitch is an inherent risk of baseball, and the batter willingly assumed that risk by participating in the game.

In 2006, the California Supreme Court ruled a college player who suffered serious injuries after being intentionally hit in the head had no legal recourse. “Being intentionally hit is likewise an inherent risk of the sport, so accepted by custom that a pitch intentionally thrown at a batter has its own terminology: ‘brushback,’ ‘beanball,’ ‘chin music,’” said the ruling. How stupid.

That’s just one court, so maybe a hitter would have better luck in another state. The precedent has been set though. One court has already ruled that getting hit by a pitch intentionally is part of the game, and other courts may simply fall in line. So yes, technically a player can sue after being hit by a pitch. Winning the lawsuit is another matter. For better or worse, getting hit is part of the game.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)