June 22nd, 2021: Triple Plays, Offense, Taillon, Roster Moves, Pirates

Here's my bi-weekly Yankees post at CBS. I wrote about Gary Sanchez's hot streak, Zack Britton's return, and Deivi Garcia's struggles in Triple-A.

Within the last week the Yankees cut their AL East deficit in half (now four games in the loss column) and improved their postseason odds a healthy 16.7 percentage points (now 59.9%). They’re still on the outside of the postseason picture looking in, so there’s still lots of work to be done, and fortunately there’s plenty of time to do it. The Yankees are on pace to go 87-75 with 91 games remaining. To today’s thoughts.

1. Weekend observations. The Yankees were a Wandy Peralta hanging slider away from going 6-0 against the Blue Jays and Athletics last week. They also trailed in the sixth inning or later in all five wins, so I guess that means they weren’t that far away from going 0-6? Whatever. The wins are in the bank. Now start playing with a lead, please. Some thoughts on the weekend.

A triple play of triple plays

If the Yankees are going to lead the world in hitting into double plays and making bonehead baserunning mistakes, the least they can do is lead baseball in turning triple plays as well. They turned their third of the season (and second in four days) on Sunday and it was an incredibly cool walk-off triple play. Here’s the video. Right about here …

… is when I thought “holy crap they might do it again.” I’ve now seen five triple plays in person. Guess that makes me a good luck charm.

"It's incredible when you think about it. You can tell this to someone and they probably won't believe it. They would need to see it to believe it," Aroldis Chapman said after the game. "... Thank God the ground ball was near the base and (Gio) Urshela was able to make the play. That play saved the game."

Chapman couldn’t throw strikes (he’s been dealing with a broken nail and walked the first two batters of the inning on nine pitches) and neither Chad Green (workload) nor Zack Britton (soreness) was available as a safety net. Peralta and Luis Cessa were warming up, so yeah, the Yankees were in real trouble before the triple killing.

“I just told him to throw the sinker for the three-ball and let's get on with it,” Aaron Boone joked after the game, referring to the mound visit to check on Chapman’s nail before the triple play.

The Yankees have turned two traditional 5-4-3 around the horn triple plays (here’s the other) plus one weird 1-3-6-2-5-6 triple play (video) this year. That was the first 1-3-6-2-5-6 triple play in baseball history, you know. The 1-3-6-2-5-6 triple play was fun in a “what in the world are the Blue Jays doing?” way. The anticipation slowly built as the play developed.

5-4-3 triple plays are electric. They happen so fast and everything has to go just right, and in the Yankees' case this year, both came in incredibly high-leverage situations. They were as exhilarating as anything you’ll see on a baseball field. A couple facts:

• The 2021 Yankees, 2016 White Sox, 1979 Red Sox, 1965 Cubs, 1924 Red Sox, and 1911 Tigers are the only teams to turn three triple plays in a season in the Modern Era.
• The 2021 Yankees and 1886 Brooklyn Grays are the only teams in history to turn three triple plays and throw a no-hitter in a season.
• It’s the first walk-off triple play since Eric Bruntlett had an unassisted triple play against the Mets in 2009 (video), and the first with a one-run lead since the Reds in 1967.
• 31 days is the shortest span with three triple plays by one team in history. The 1979 Red Sox held the record previously with three in 36 days.
• It’s the third walk-off triple play in Yankees history. They turned the others in 1903 and 1911.
• The Yankees have turned six triple plays since 2010, the most in baseball. The Brewers, Twins, and White Sox are tied for second with four each.

No team has ever turned four triple plays in a season. The Yankees have 91 games to make it happen.

The offense returns (I think?)

Is the offense back? I don’t want to read too much into a few good games against the terrible Twins and that Blue Jays bullpen (woof), but you can only play the teams on your schedule, and the Yankees are in the middle of their best offensive stretch of the season by a mile.

• April: .224/.317/.390 (98 wRC+)
• May: .233/.315/.352 (88 wRC+)
• June: .244/.312/.441 (107 wRC+)

Nine times the Yankees have scored at least five runs in a game this month. Nine times in 16 games. They did it nine times in their previous 27 games. The team batting line has climbed to .232/.315/.389 (96 wRC+), and they’re no longer bottom three in runs per game (they’re 25th with 3.96). Progress.

The Yankees have hit more home runs in June (28) than May (25) despite 349 fewer plate appearances. MLB hitters have gone from a 93 wRC+ in April to a 97 wRC+ in May to a 103 wRC+ in June, which is normal. Offense always ticks up in the summer, and even then the Yankees are still better than average. Some individual hitters in June:

• Gary Sanchez: .315/.362/.704 (184 wRC+) with 5 HR in 58 PA
• Brett Gardner: .270/.417/.568 (166 wRC+) with 19.6 BB% and 15.7 K% in 51 PA
• Giancarlo Stanton: .283/.382/.565 (157 wRC+) with 4 HR in 55 PA
• Gio Urshela: .296/.315/.549 (134 wRC+) with 4 HR in 73 PA

Sanchez, man. What a roll that dude is on. Two loud opposite field doubles Sunday and five homers in his last 10 games. He’s at his best when he’s going to right field and he’s doing it now. That little adjustment he made last month to close his stance and shorten his leg kick is making a difference. Gary’s gonna make the All-Star Game at this rate. How about that?

"Just watch the at-bats, the competitiveness every pitch. He's on time, he's making really good decisions," Boone said over the weekend. "Doesn't mean you're gonna always get results, but it's not an accident now that he's getting really good results, because he's in the fight every pitch now. He's under control, he's balanced, and when those things happen, his talent comes out."

On the flip side, Aaron Judge is in funk right now after hitting well for a few weeks, and that’s just baseball. He’ll get back to tearing the cover off the ball soon enough. DJ LeMahieu’s exit velocity is ticking back up and that’s a good sign …

… though he’s still hitting only .253/.300/.387 (90 wRC+) in June, so it has not yet translated into production. Gleyber Torres went on a nice little heater earlier this month and is now 2-for-29 (.069) in his last eight games. The Yankees really, really need to get those two going. Especially LeMahieu, I think. When he’s right, he’s a dominant force atop the lineup.

I’m not ready to declare the offense capital-B Back. We’ve been burned a few times already this year thinking the lineup was on the verge of a breakout, only to watch them then do something like, well, let Sean Manaea set new career highs in strikeouts (11) and swings and misses (24), like Sunday. But I also no longer feel like the Yankees are out of it when they fall behind 2-3 runs, you know? Like I said, progress.

“I think that confidence is growing within our group," LeMahieu told Max Goodman following Friday’s loss. "We had the lead, they hit a homer, and I felt like we were going to come back one way or another. We just couldn't put much together. But yeah, I think our confidence has grown as a group for sure in those situations."

Home/road splits

I did not realize how extreme the offense’s home/road split is this season until I stumbled on it while looking at something else the other day. It’s not extreme in the direction you’d expect either. Usually the Yankees are much better at home than on the road. This year it’s the opposite:

• Home: .223/.313/.363 (90 wRC+) with one homer every 32.9 plate appearances
• Road: .242/.317/.413 (103 wRC+) with one homer every 26.6 plate appearances

For reference, the Yankees hit .264/.344/.484 (121 wRC+) at home and averaged one homer every 20.2 plate appearances from 2018-20. On the road, it was .250/.327/.451 (108 wRC+) with one homer every 24.2 plate appearances. Understandable, right? Yankee Stadium is a home run ballpark and generally more hitter friendly than other stadiums.

This year though, the Yankees have been really underwhelmed at home. The road numbers are more or less where you’d expect, I’d say. Down a bit from 2018-20 but not horrible, especially considering how many hitters have underperformed this year. The numbers at home are straight up bad though. This team should dominate at home. They’re doing anything but.

I think the underwhelming offense at home is tied directly to the lack of lefty bats. The Yankees are not built for their home ballpark. Ready for a dumb stat? Here is the left-handed batter home run leaderboard at Yankee Stadium this year:

1. The Yankees: 6 (three for Rougned Odor and one each for Gardner, Jay Bruce, and Mike Ford)
2. Austin Meadows: 3
3. Yordan Alvarez: 2
4. Tony Kemp: 2
5. Matt Olson: 2
6. Joey Wendle: 2
7. 14 tied with one

Yes, Yankees lefty hitters have six -- six! -- homers at Yankee Stadium in 36 games. That’s hard to believe. Well, no, it’s not given the roster construction, but you know what I mean. The Rays have as many lefty homers at Yankee Stadium this year as the Yankees. Yeesh.

Eight Yankees have at least 75 plate appearances at home and on the road this season, and only four have been better at home than on the road (one barely):

• Clint Frazier: 95 wRC+ at home and 73 wRC+ on the road
• Brett Gardner: 68 and 93
• Aaron Judge: 121 and 164
• DJ LeMahieu: 83 and 104
• Gary Sanchez: 116 and 132
• Giancarlo Stanton: 133 and 132
• Gleyber Torres: 93 and 85
• Gio Urshela: 114 and 100

I’m not sure how the Yankees fix this other than a) the guys on the roster start playing better, and b) they add a quality lefty bat or two. I mean, it’s insane the Yankees play in this ballpark and are so short on quality lefties. They leaned into the “give me a good hitter regardless of handedness” approach a little too much. You absolutely need some offensive diversity.

Taillon’s adjustments

Jameson Taillon rebounded from his disaster start against the Phillies with a serviceable outing against the Athletics. Not great, not terrible. Serviceable is a good word. Taillon surrendered two runs on four hits and a walk in 4.2 innings. He struck out five, and five of the 13 balls he allowed to be put in play were at 100 mph or better, so Taillon navigated around some hard contact.

When you give up four runs and get one out like Taillon did in Philadelphia, you go back to the drawing board and make adjustments, and Taillon has added a little step to his delivery. Here’s the requisite before and after GIF. The GIF on the left is from May 31st and the GIF on the right is from Friday night (GIF link):

That little step is new. Taillon did not do that against the Phillies (video) or in any other start this season. I thought maybe Taillon lengthened his arm action a little bit as well, though that doesn’t appear to be the case. To me, everything after the step looks the same. I guess he’s trying to build more momentum before driving toward the plate? I dunno.

Also, Taillon brought his sinker back Friday. He threw a season high 12 sinkers against the A’s. His previous season high was nine sinkers on May 31st. In his other 11 starts, Taillon threw six sinkers total. His fastball usage by start:

Kyle Higashioka was behind the plate for the nine-sinker and 12-sinker starts. Those are the only two times he’s caught Taillon this year. After the nine-sinker start, I said it was too early to read anything into Higashioka and the sinkers. It was one start, and Taillon was facing a team that hit him hard two weeks earlier (Rays), so maybe they just changed up the scouting report.

After two starts though, it’s probably not a coincidence. Taillon has thrown 15 more sinkers in 38.2 fewer innings with Higashioka than Sanchez. There’s something to that, I think. All the extra sinkers haven't really helped (five runs in 9.2 innings with Higashioka), but it is something different. Taillon is not trying the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.

I was excited about Taillon earlier this year because he was missing bats with his fastball (still is!) and his velocity was ticking up each time out. Then it just plateaued, and his secondary stuff hasn’t come around. The road back from (a second) Tommy John surgery isn’t always smooth, though I was hoping to see more progress than this in the middle of June.

Maybe that little step helps Taillon firm up his secondary stuff and the sinkers make a difference. Maybe not. At least he and the Yankees are trying different things. I’ve written about enough of these adjustments to know most of them don’t lead to any substantial improvement. You have to try though. The Yankees are short on alternatives and need Taillon to be competitive.

"I was going out there with the idea that I was going to be super aggressive with all of my pitches, versus overthinking and trying to nibble," Taillon told Bryan Hoch following Friday’s start. "I thought it was something to build off. I thought I did a lot of things tonight differently that I can take going forward."

Splitting up King and Taillon

The Yankees should probably use yesterday’s off-day to split up Taillon and Mike King. They’re lined up on back-to-back days right now and they’re taxing the bullpen. King has gone five innings once in his four starts and he’s yet to throw more than 69 pitches in a game. Even if you take out the Philadelphia disaster, Taillon is averaging 4.8 innings per start this year.

Much of that is by design too. The Yankees aren’t letting King or Taillon go through the lineup a third time and that’s smart. Taillon’s been terrible the third time through the order and King has a hard enough time getting through the order twice (or once, even). Keeping both on a short leash helps win today’s game, though there’s often a bullpen price to pay the next day.

Today’s off-day allows the Yankees to move Domingo German up and put him between King and Taillon. German would have to start on normal rest Thursday rather than with an extra day Friday, but it can be done. German hasn’t exactly pitched well lately either, though he’s a better bet to give you innings than King or Taillon. He’d give the bullpen a breather.

Upcoming roster moves

The Yankees have a few injured players nearing a return. Luke Voit completed his minor league rehab assignment over the weekend (8-for-19 with two homers in six games) and will rejoin the team today. Also, Darren O’Day is starting a rehab assignment today, and Justin Wilson could do so later this week. O’Day could be a week away, Wilson a little more than that.

Chris Gittens was sent down following Sunday’s game to make room for Voit, which was the obvious move. No need to carry two righty hitting first base only guys. Gittens couldn’t possibly be worse than Mike Ford!, and then he was immediately worse than Mike Ford (61 wRC+ vs. 24 wRC+). Gittens had some key pinch-hit at-bats the last few games, but yeah.

Clearing room for O’Day and Wilson isn’t quite as straightforward as sending Gittens down to make room for Voit. The two most obvious candidates to go down:

• Nestor Cortes. Cortes has pitched well in limited action and Boone was effusive with his praise following Saturday’s game. Also, he’s the only true long man in the bullpen, and the Yankees need a guy like that with King and Taillon unable to pitch deep into games. Someone has to chew up innings.
• Wandy Peralta. Boone and the Yankees keep trying to shoehorn Peralta into the Circle of Trust™, but he’s allowed 10 runs in his last 11 innings, and how many lefties does one bullpen need? I guess handedness doesn’t matter as long as you get outs.

Cortes and Peralta both have a minor league option remaining, so sending them down would be easy. The only other candidates to come off the roster are Cessa and Lucas Luetge, who are out of options and have to pass through waivers to go to the minors. They’ve pitched well in their roles though, and from a “preserve depth” perspective, keeping them is smart.

The Yankees could also cut Wilson given how poorly he’s pitched this year (11 runs in 13.1 innings), though I don’t think they’re there yet. He has a track record and let’s see how he pitches once he’s healthy. Also, the Yankees could use him to offset salary in a trade in a few weeks. It’s possible, sure, but I think dumping Wilson once he’s healthy is very unlikely.

I guess the other possibilities are sending down Tyler Wade or cutting Odor, and going with a three-man bench and a nine-man bullpen. That seems like overkill but I’d get it. The Yankees play 13 games in 13 days beginning today, and nine relievers would allow them to better cover whenever King and/or Taillon (or German) bow out of a start early.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves though. O’Day and Wilson have to finish their rehab and become MLB options, and Cortes and Peralta have to pitch well enough to make this a difficult decision. Gittens for Voit is a no-brainer. Clearing room for O’Day and Wilson isn’t quite as obvious right now. Maybe it’ll be a different story when they’re ready to return.

Capacity crowds

Yankee Stadium reopened at 100% capacity Friday and this weekend was met with crowds of 24,037 on Friday, 23,985 on Saturday, and 27,807 on Sunday. That’s roughly 45% capacity, or not what the Yankees hoped to see. Boone expected a full house based on the way he talked about the return to 100% capacity prior to Friday’s game.

"I think what's been neat is there's been some games this year where -- whatever our max capacity's been -- where it seemed like and felt like a lot more than that,” Boone told Coby Green. “So the fact that we're gonna have up to twice as many fans in the building tonight -- Yankee Stadium, in the Bronx, on the weekend, as the summer's upon us -- I think everyone's looking forward to that."

I am all for criticizing and poking fun at the Yankees, and I’m sure the team is disappointed with the 45% capacity showing, but there’s a time and a place to attendance shame, and I don’t think the first full capacity series coming out of a(n ongoing) global pandemic is it. Lots of folks are still wary about going into crowded places, can no longer afford to go to games, etc.

Also, the Yankees announced the return to full capacity (up from about 50% capacity) on Tuesday. They had three days to sell half the ballpark, all as individual tickets (rather than group tickets or season tickets). Local regulations allowed the Dodgers to announce on May 21st that they would return to full capacity on June 15th. They had more than three weeks of lead time, and their first full capacity game was a sellout. The Yankees didn't have that luxury. They could only give three days notice.

Like I said, I am all for picking on the Yankees, but I don’t think this is an appropriate time to do it. The team has been decidedly blah this year and I totally get not wanting to spend your money to go watch them. There are forces in play here much larger than that though. They’ll sell out Yankee Stadium soon enough. A week after they announce 100% capacity is not the time to get on the team for empty seats, no matter how disappointing they’ve been on the field.

(The Yankees are selling tickets for the next six home games at half-price, by the way. The sale ends at 11:59pm ET tonight.)

Miscellany

Is Higashioka really gonna catch Gerrit Cole tonight? Gonna sit Sanchez the day after an off-day with the way he’s swinging the bat? I get that Gary will probably pinch-hit at some point, but I feel like you have to give Cole a start with Sanchez, and see what’s what. Gary is in too good a groove to sit him … Wade over Gardner as a defensive replacement in center field on Sunday, eh? I wonder what that was about. Gardner had started seven straight games, so maybe the Yankees were just trying to get him two straight days off his feet with the off-day? Dunno. It would surprise me (a lot) if the Yankees consider Wade the superior defensive center fielder … On Sunday, Green was unavailable because of his recent workload (he pitched three times in six games last week and warmed up two other days) and Britton was unavailable with what Boone described as general soreness. “He was just heavy today. It’s just him working on the mound, him working to get back. Just decided before the game, let’s try to stay away from him with the off-day, and feel like we should be good,” Boone said. Britton is essentially still in Spring Training mode and the Yankees are being careful with him. If he’s deemed unavailable tonight, then I’ll start to worry. For now, it’s fine. (I bet Jonathan Loaisiga will be unavailable tonight, even after the off-day yesterday. He threw 36 pitches Sunday and has pitched four times in the last nine days, and is on pace for 88 innings. The Yankees should be able to avoid Loaisiga tonight with Cole starting and Britton and Green presumably available.)

2. Potential trade partner: Pittsburgh Pirates. The trade deadline is five weeks and three days away, and the Yankees have multiple needs. Center field is a top priority, and so is getting a starting pitcher in the wake of Luis Severino’s groin injury. You can only run Mike King and Jameson Taillon out there so many times. A pitcher and an outfielder are necessary.

"We’re fully engaged into the buying mode in terms of attempting to improve what we’ve got. It’s all measured about what’s available, and whatever’s available is better than what we have,” Brian Cashman told Ryan Morik last week. “And if so, we’ll try to see if we can try to make something happen there. And I am also open to anything and everything that I don’t think of as I enter the conversation. So if somebody presents something that is radical -- we’re in a spot we didn’t expect to be in, and I’m open to all ideas to improve the situation yesterday."

The Pirates are predictably terrible (they are 25-45 overall and have lost 34 of 47 games since starting the season 12-11) and they’re a no-doubt seller. They traded Taillon, Josh Bell, and Joe Musgrove over the winter, and there’s no reason for GM Ben Cherington to hold back. There’s maybe two players on the roster who can be part of the next contending Pirates team. That's it.

Cherington is a smart dude and I’m guessing he’s willing to make a trade now rather than wait until the deadline. Pittsburgh has been burned by the “wait until the deadline to trade this guy” strategy in recent years (Corey Dickerson and Keone Kela got hurt and Felipe Vazquez turned out to be a statutory rapist), so I don’t think they’re going to wait. They’ll make a move right now.

“I’ve never been very good at predicting when the conversations turn to traction,” Cherington told Jake Crouse about the trade market over the weekend. “I’m just not good at it. So I don’t know if that’s 24 hours or a week or six weeks. I really don’t know, but it does seem like there have been more phone calls over the last week or 10 days.”

The Yankees and Pirates talked Musgrove and (obviously) Taillon over the winter, so Cherington & Co. are familiar with New York’s farm system. That could help facilitate a trade. Do any of their players make sense for the Yankees? Eh, kinda. The Pirates are thin in the areas the Yankees need the most help (center field and the rotation). Let’s take a look.

LHP Tyler Anderson

2021 stats: 4.89 ERA (4.51 FIP) with 21.0 K% and 6.5 BB% in 73.2 IP

Contract status: $2.5M in 2021

The stats aren’t good and the eye test is blah, but Anderson is a stathead fave because he tunnels his fastball, cutter, and changeup very well, and because the two fastballs are big time exit velocity suppressors. It’s not a coincidence the smart as hell Giants signed Anderson literally one day after the dumb as hell Rockies non-tendered him in 2019 (GIF via Eno Sarris):

That said, Anderson has a 4.66 ERA (4.45 FIP) in 133.1 innings since returning from his 2019 knee surgery, and that is objectively mediocre. He tunnels his pitches well and his fastballs don’t get squared up often, yet the results are subpar. Anderson is the type of pitcher who is just good enough to keep getting chances and just bad enough to not really win you anything.

The Yankees need another starter, preferably someone better than Anderson, though bringing him in as a back of the rotation alternative to King and Taillon is defensible. The Athletics gave up a top 20-ish team prospect (Jameson Hannah) to get rental Tanner Roark two years ago and I can’t see giving up more to get Anderson. In conclusion: meh.

RHP Kyle Crick

2021 stats: 2.95 ERA (4.21 FIP) with 21.3 K% and 16.0 BB% in 18.1 IP

Contract status: $800,000 in 2021 and arbitration-eligible from 2022-23

The dollar store Adam Ottavino. Crick is a righty slider specialist who gets righties out, has his problems with lefties, and walks too many. The Ottavino trade was financially motivated, though I don’t think the Yankees are particularly eager to reunite with this profile. Crick doesn’t seem like the best use of resources (trade capital and luxury tax payroll space). Next.

2B Adam Frazier

2021 stats: .322/.388/.451 (134 wRC+) with 2 HR in 304 PA

Contract status: $4.3M in 2021 and arbitration-eligible in 2022

Frazier is Pittsburgh’s best trade chip, at least among players they are likely to trade. He had a breakout season four years ago (.277/.342/.456 and 116 wRC+), then he took a step back in 2019 (97 wRC+), and again in 2020 (80 wRC+). Frazier has rebounded in a huge way this year, and with free agency and his 30th birthday coming up, I don’t see the Pirates keeping him.

Even during those lean years in 2019 and 2020, Frazier’s core skills never wavered. He puts the bat on the ball consistently from the left side of the plate. Going into yesterday’s games 140 players had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Frazier’s ranks:

Strikeout rate
1. Kevin Newman, Pirates: 6.5%
2. Yuli Gurriel, Astros: 9.8%
3. Adam Frazier, Pirates: 10.9%
4. David Fletcher, Angels: 11.1%
5. Michael Brantley, Astros: 11.4%

Swing and miss rate
1. David Fletcher, Angels: 3.6%
2. Myles Straw, Astros: 4.4%
3. Kevin Newman, Pirates: 4.4%
4. Jake Cronenworth, Padres: 5.1%
5. Michael Brantley, Astros: 5.1%
6. Yuli Gurriel, Astros: 5.2%
7. Adam Frazier, Pirates: 5.6%

There is more to life than a low strikeout rate (Newman is hitting .202/.246/.258, for example), but boy, a lefty who doesn’t strike out is pretty much exactly what the Yankees need, no? Frazier has no power (his average exit velocity and hard-hit rates are among the worst in baseball), but he makes a lot of contact, he uses the entire field, and he walks. That’ll play.

Frazier played every position other than first base, pitcher, and catcher in 2017, but he’s not that guy anymore. He’s been a second baseman almost exclusively the last three years, with a few outfield starts (mostly left) sprinkled in. Could you put him at, say, third base in a pinch? Yeah, probably. It’s just been a while since Frazier’s moved around.

DJ LeMahieu’s flexibility, and the fact you could probably out Frazier in the outfield without too much of a problem, means it wouldn’t be tough to get him into the lineup. Plus there are always injuries. I’m not worried about how exactly Frazier would fit. He’s a clear upgrade over Rougned Odor, and the Yankees would get to keep him next year too.

The 2018 Jonathan Schoop trade could work as a reference point for Frazier. Like Frazier, Schoop was a year and a half away from free agency, and the Brewers sent the Orioles an MLB roster player with two and a half years of control (Jonathan Villar), a top 10 team prospect (Luis Ortiz), and a top 30-ish team prospect (Jean Carmona). I think that gets us in the ballpark.

The Yankees equivalent to the Schoop package is something like Clint Frazier, Clarke Schmidt, and a third prospect from deep in the minors. Clint has one more year of control than Villar did, though Schmidt is the same sorta fading former top prospect as Ortiz, so that fits. That seems like a fair offer. Would I do it? Not sure, but I don’t think it’s outlandish.

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

2021 stats: .266/.338/.500 (129 wRC+) with 3 HR in 71 PA

Contract status: $589,900 in 2021 plus pre-arbitration-eligible 2022-23 and arbitration-eligible from 2024-26

There is basically zero chance Pittsburgh will trade Charlie’s son. Hayes is their cornerstone building block and a worthy heir to Andrew McCutchen’s throne as the Pirates star who contends for MVPs at his peak. Will that peak align with Pittsburgh’s return to contention (seems like Hayes might hit free agency right as they get good again)? Dunno, but they should find out.

I’m mentioning Hayes here because, well, I don’t know. I didn’t just want to gloss over him. He’s excellent and if the Pirates make him available, the Yankees should put everyone on the table, including Jasson Dominguez. That’s not going to happen though. Trade Hayes and the Pirates will spend the next 10 years trying to find a player as good as him. No luck here.

RHP Chad Kuhl

2021 stats: 5.66 ERA (5.88 FIP) with 17.0 K% and 13.8 BB% in 35 innings

Contract status: $2.13M in 2021 and arbitration-eligible in 2022

Kuhl must be good, he started Opening Day! He returned from Tommy John surgery last year and was so-so, and you could talk yourself into there being upside here given his breaking ball spin rates*, but I’m tired of the “this guy could be good” profile. The Yankees should try getting pitchers we know are good for a change. Worked well with Gerrit Cole, no?

* How do you value spin in the foreign substance crackdown era? Do you devalue it because it’s something that could be taken away with one suspension or umpire check, or do you prioritize it because the ability to spin the ball naturally is becoming scarce?

1B Colin Moran

2021 stats: .289/.353/.437 (120 wRC+) with 4 HR in 150 PA

Contract status: $2.8M in 2021 and arbitration-eligible from 2022-23

It took a little longer than everyone expected, but Moran has finally made the jump from No. 6 overall pick to legitimate middle of the order hitter the last two years. He strikes out more than you’d like, but the power is real, and Moran controls the strike zone well. He’s a lefty who’s dangerous against righties too: .281/.354/.502 (131 wRC+) the last two years.

Moran pulls most of his home runs, which makes him a good match for Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch, and he’s adept at going the other way as well. Here’s his 2020-21 spray chart. When Moran pulls the ball, it’s usually over the fence or into the shift. There’s a good amount of hits to left field here too.

Defensively, Moran is essentially a first base only guy. He was terrible defensively at third base before moving to first in deference to Hayes, and his brief 2019 foray into left field should not be revisited. Luke Voit hasn’t been a beacon of health, though it’s hard to see how Voit and Moran coexist on the same roster (unless the Yankees put Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield, and lol).

If Voit suffers a setback or a new injury between now and the trade deadline, then yeah, Moran would make sense as a first base stopgap. Other than that, I’m not sure there’s a fit here. The Yankees could use a lefty power bat, no doubt about it, but that bat has to fit the roster too. Moran wouldn’t really do that given his defensive limitations. Shrug.

OF Gregory Polanco

2021 stats: .202/.271/.352 (71 wRC+) with 7 HR in 218 PA

Contract status: $11M in 2021 with a $12.5M club option ($3M buyout) for 2022 and a $13.5M club option ($1M buyout) for 2023

Once upon a time Polanco was one of the top prospects in baseball, and the Pirates got raked over the coals for manipulating his service time. Eight years later he’s a career .243/.310/.411 (94 wRC+) hitter and working on his third straight sub-replacement level season. His 2018 breakout (.254/.340/.499 and 123 wRC+ with 23 homers) feels like a lifetime ago.

Polanco, now 29, is essentially the outfield version of Odor. His top 5% or so exit velocities are excellent, but his approach is so bad that he doesn't get to those exit velocities often, and his overall offensive production is well below average. Odor’s at least a solid defender at second. These days Polanco rates as a subpar defensive corner outfielder. The Yankees have enough guys like that.

The Yankees badly need a quality lefty bat, and quality is the key word there. Odor and Jay Bruce and Mike Ford are reminders that you can’t just stick any lefty in Yankee Stadium and expect a pile of short porch homers. The Pirates would surely give Polanco away for nothing right now, just to unload the money. I don’t see a fit with the Yankees though. They can do (much) better than this.

OF Bryan Reynolds

2021 stats: .299/.394/.529 (153 wRC+) with 12 HR in 282 PA

Contract status: $601,000 in 2021 plus arbitration-eligible from 2022-25

Remember when I said there are maybe two players on the roster who can be part of the next contending Pirates team? Hayes is one, and Reynolds is the other (Frazier is too close to free agency). Pittsburgh acquired the 26-year-old Reynolds in the McCutchen trade with the Giants, and he was great as a rookie in 2019 (130 wRC+). Last year didn’t go as well (72 wRC+).

There were indications Reynolds had some poor luck last year (he had the eighth largest gap between his actual wOBA and his expected wOBA), and this year everything is in line with his rookie season. Strikeouts (20.6%), swings and misses (11.6%), max exit velocity (112.7 mph), the works. Reynolds is a switch-hitter with power and he controls the strike zone. This plays:

The Pirates are using Reynolds in center field this year and he’s stretched a bit there, but he can play it. He’s better in left, though there’s no reason the Yankees couldn’t play him in center this year before moving him over next year. Get that bat in the lineup, add some sorely needed diversity to the offense, and figure out how to make the defense work.

What will it take to get four and a half years (five postseason runs) of a very good young player? There is a good trade reference point, believe it or not: Christian Yelich. That was an offseason trade, but the Marlins sent five years (i.e. five postseason runs) of Yelich to the Brewers for a four-prospect package:

• OF Lewis Brinson (top 20 global prospect)
• OF Monte Harrison (top 75 global prospect)
• IF Isan Diaz (top 10 team prospect)
• RHP Jordan Yamamoto (non-top 30 team prospect)

Yelich then was a year younger than Reynolds is now, yet he had about twice as many big league plate appearances, and was generally more highly regarded. Lots of folks (ahem) saw a Yelich breakout coming. Maybe not the MVP seasons he had in 2018 and 2019, but a breakout. Reynolds is good, though I’m not sure he’s Yelich good.

The Yankees equivalent to the Yelich package is something like Jasson Dominguez, Deivi Garcia, Anthony Volpe, and a fourth player. Again, Reynolds now is not as highly regarded as Yelich was then, so it shouldn’t take as much to get him, but that’s the equivalent. You’re not getting Reynolds for Schmidt and Miguel Andujar, you know?

Given the Yankees’ needs in the lineup and in center field, Reynolds is close to a perfect fit. It would be nice if he were a legitimate center fielder and not a good left fielder masquerading in center, but beggars can’t be choosers. I don’t think the Pirates would trade Reynolds for anything less than a Godfather package, so this might not be realistic. He’s definitely worth a call though.

RHP Richard Rodriguez

2021 stats: 1.91 ERA (2.25 FIP) with 23.1 K% and 2.9 BB% in 28.1 IP

Contract status: $1.7M in 2021 and arbitration-eligible from 2022-23

Rodriguez is good and not just Pirates good. He’s a legitimate high-leverage reliever, and the last thing a bad rebuilding team needs is a great closer, especially a 31-year-old closer with a short track record of excellence. I expect Rodriguez to be dealt at the deadline. Holding onto him just has so much downside. The Pirates have to cash this chip in while they can.

As good as Rodriguez has been this season, his strikeout rate decline (36.6% to 23.1%) and swing and miss rate decline (15.1% to 10.5%) since last season are among the largest in the sport. That’s a bit of a red flag, particularly for a guy who throws almost nothing but fastballs. Imagine if Chad Green suddenly saw his strikeout rate cut in half? We’d be worried.

Rodriguez is worth mentioning because he’s very good and very available. The Yankees could fit him into the bullpen, for sure. At the same time, the bullpen is not a huge need, and trading prospects and eating up precious luxury tax payroll space for another reliever isn’t the best idea. The Yankees have much greater needs to address.

C Jacob Stallings

2021 stats: .230/.318/.399 (101 wRC+) with 5 HR in 201 PA

Contract status: $1.3M in 2021 and arbitration-eligible from 2022-24

Stallings is the rich man’s Chris Stewart. He’s a framing god with a light bat, though the bat is better than Stewart’s. Stallings will take a walk (he’s hit in the middle of the order much of the season, so his 10.9% walk rate is not inflated by hitting eighth in front of the pitcher) and put a mistake in the seats. You can do worse behind the plate and in the No. 9 lineup spot.

At this point though, catcher is pretty far down the shopping list. Gary Sanchez is in a nice groove at the moment, and the Yankees aren’t replacing Kyle Higashioka in-season. Plus contending teams typically don’t like to change catchers during the season (learning the pitching staff on the fly can be a pain). An injury would change the calculus. Otherwise Stallings doesn’t make sense for the Yankees right now. For better or worse, they’re set behind the plate.

RHP Chris Stratton

2021 stats: 2.79 ERA (3.79 FIP) with 20.5 K% and 7.7 BB% in 38.2 IP

Contract status: $1.1M in 2021 plus arbitration-eligible from 2022-23

Pretty much the only thing Stratton has going for him is spin. He has top of the line spin rates on his fastball and curveball, yet this year’s 38.2-inning sample is the first time he’s been anything more than serviceable in a career that now spans parts of six seasons. This is quite the collection of skills:

There’s more to life than spin, but maybe you can help get Stratton to the next level with some tweaks. Or maybe he loses that spin to the sticky stuff crackdown, and you wind up with a generic middle reliever. I mean, Stratton is a generic middle reliever even with that spin. I dunno. He’s trade bait. Not sure if it matters to the Yankees though.

3. 2021 draft prospect: Connecticut HS LHP Frank Mozzicato. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

Mozzicato turned 18 last week and is one of the youngest pitchers in the draft class. He’s the best pitching prospect out of Connecticut since at least Matt Barnes in 2011, and maybe the best since Matt Harvey fell to the third round for bonus reasons and rejected the Angels out of high school in 2007. Mozzicato threw four consecutive no-hitters earlier this spring, though he’s not exactly facing premium competition as a Connecticut high schooler.

MLB.com and Baseball America (subs. req’d) rank Mozzicato as the No. 39 and No. 41 prospect in the draft class, respectively, though those rankings are outdated. He’s climbing draft boards and is consistently mocked as a first round pick, with Kiley McDaniel (subs. req’d) saying the Angels had three top evaluators watch him recently. The Halos hold the No. 9 pick.

Anyway, here’s some video of Mozzicato and here’s a chunk of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Over the summer, Mozzicato’s fastball topped out at 91 and was below-average from a velocity standpoint, typically sitting in the upper-80s. After spending time working out at Cressey Sports Performance, he came out this spring throwing considerably harder, sitting around 91 mph and touching 93 mph consistently. His curveball is the selling point here, a plus breaker now with high spin.

The lefty has a changeup and while he doesn’t need it much at this level, there’s reason to believe from his athleticism and delivery that he’ll develop a solid offspeed pitch in time. He’s filled up the strike zone and been unhittable this spring with more and more attention from scouts, making one wonder if he’ll ever set foot on UConn’s campus.

The Eric Cressey connection* is notable, and Dom Amore notes the Yankees had someone scouting Mozzicato a few weeks ago. Amore says Padres GM A.J. Preller was also at that game. San Diego holds the No. 27 pick and teams picking late in the first round cast a very wide net. The GM doesn’t go to see everyone, so Preller’s presence indicates serious interest.

* I have no inside knowledge here but I seriously doubt Cressey worked closely with Mozzicato, a high school kid who wasn’t a projected first round pick last summer, the same way he did Corey Kluber, a two-time Cy Young winner. I’m sure Cressey can dip into his employees for information on Mozzicato, though I can’t imagine he worked with him personally.

The Yankees have intentionally gone hitter heavy early in the last few drafts and I don’t think they’d break that strategy for a high school pitcher from a cold weather state. Mozzicato fits in the No. 20 range though, and they’ve scouted him and there’s the Cressey connection, no matter how loose. That makes him worth mentioning.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Matt Thornton. Our next random Yankee comes by request and is one of countless lefty relievers the Yankees cycled through in the 2000s and early 2010s. Here’s the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Thornton grew up in Michigan and was selected by his hometown-ish Tigers in the 27th round of the 1995 draft. He did not sign and turned himself into a very good prospect at Grand Valley State. In 1998, the Mariners made Thornton the No. 22 pick in the draft. He was selected two picks after CC Sabathia and one pick before random Yankee Bubba Crosby.

It took Thornton a few years to establish himself in the minors. It wasn’t until 2001, his age 24 season, that he broke out with a 2.52 ERA and 192 strikeouts in 152 High-A innings. Thornton made his MLB debut as a 27-year-old in 2004 and it did not go well. He threw 32.2 mostly relief innings with Seattle, and had 4.13 ERA with nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (30).

Thornton spent 2005 as a low leverage reliever and pitched to a 5.21 ERA in 57 innings. He walked 42 batters and struck out 57. Thornton was 28 at the time and looking like a first round bust. He had big fastball velocity and not much else. In Spring Training 2006, the Mariners cut bait, and traded Thornton to the White Sox for fellow first round flop Joe Borchard.

“(The Mariners) had high expectations for me, and I guess I didn't live up to those expectations,” Thornton told the Associated Press. “Being traded is a new experience for me. I don't know how to react to it. I've heard some good things about Ozzie Guillen, and I'm looking forward to playing for him."

In Spring Training 2010, I was part of a FanGraphs event in Arizona, and Rick Hahn, currently the White Sox GM and at the time their assistant GM, spoke at the event. He said they went to Thornton after the trade and asked him how he wanted to pitch. “He told us he wanted to throw the ball as hard as he could right down the fuckin’ middle, so we let him,” Hahn said.

The “throw the ball as hard as you can down the middle” approach worked. Thornton cut his walk rate in half and pitched to a 3.33 ERA in 54 innings in 2006, with 49 strikeouts and only 21 walks. From 2006-12, Thornton was one of the best relievers in the game, averaging 62.2 innings per season with a 3.25 ERA and very good strikeout (25.8%) and walk (8.0%) rates.

“It's difficult to give up on a guy who throws 94 mph,” Mariners then-manager Mike Hargrove told the Associated Press after the trade in Spring Training 2006. “Things didn't work out for Matt here, but hopefully for him everything will come together for him in a different environment.”

At age 35 in 2013, Thornton began to slip a little bit, and the out of contention White Sox sent him to the first place Red Sox at the deadline. An oblique strain kept him on the sidelines during their World Series run, and he finished the regular season with a 3.74 ERA and 30 strikeouts against 15 walks in 43.1 innings.

Boone Logan became a free agent after the 2013 season and eventually signed a three-year contract worth $16.5M with the Rockies. The Yankees needed to replace him as the primary left-on-left guy in Joe Girardi’s bullpen, and that led them to Thornton. On Jan. 10th, 2014, the Yankees signed the then-37-year-old to a two-year deal worth $7M. It paid him $3.5M each in 2014 and 2015 (RAB post).

“I think people want to see how the bullpen’s going to shake out,” Brain Cashman told Anthony Rieber in Spring Training 2014. “... I also don’t want to say that we’re not going to try to improve ourselves, but we’re just going to have to do it in a much cheaper way going forward.”

At the time, Thornton was clearly no longer the high-leverage monster he was during his years with the White Sox. He still appeared to be a competent lefty matchup guy though. Here’s a table I put together as part of our season preview piece going into 2014. Almost everything about Thornton was trending down:

Girardi knew what he was doing with bullpens, and he wisely limited Thornton to strict left-on-left matchup duty. He made 11 appearances in April and eight times he faced no more than two batters. The only time Thornton pitched a full inning that month was the Michael Pineda pine tar game, when Pineda was ejected after 1.2 innings and the bullpen had to wear it.

Things started to go south in May. Thornton allowed four runs on seven hits and a walk in 4.2 innings spanning 12 games that month, then brought it down to a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings in June and July. The real problem: Thornton allowed 10 of 17 inherited runners to score in June and July. He didn’t allow many of his own runs. He just allowed runs charged to everyone else.

Thornton’s worst outing as a Yankee came on July 10th. The Yankees were in Cleveland and took a 3-0 lead into the seventh inning. David Phelps allowed back-to-back singles to start the seventh, then Girardi went to Thornton to get the two lefties and one switch-hitter due up. He faced three batters and here’s how his outing went:

• Lefty Jason Kipnis singled on a ground ball off Thornton’s glove to load the bases with no outs.
• Switch-hitter Asdrubal Cabrera cleared the bases with a triple (video).
• Lefty Michael Brantley drove in Cabrera with a sacrifice fly.

"It happens. It's a reaction," Girardi told the Associated Press after the game, referring to the Kipnis grounder, which looked like a potential double play ball until Thornton tried to field it and deflected it away from everyone. "You want your pitchers to try to field balls, but that happened to be one that is the double play ball that we're looking for."

Thornton allowed both runners he inherited from Phelps to score as well as two runs of his own, turning a 3-0 lead into a 4-3 deficit. The Yankees eventually lost the game 9-3. To add injury to insult, that was the day the Yankees learned Masahiro Tanaka had a partially torn ligament in his elbow, and would attempt to rehab the injury and avoid Tommy John surgery.

"Certainly disappointed for our player, for our organization," Cashman told the Associated Press about Tanaka’s injury as everyone quickly forgot about Thornton’s outing. "He's been an important piece. We have a tremendously gifted and tough player. We'll see how he responds.”

Despite the meltdown in Cleveland, Thornton remained Girardi’s go-to lefty specialist, partly because the only alternative was David Huff, who was more of a long man. Thornton rebounded with eight consecutive scoreless outings, though he allowed three of 10 inherited runners to score. Those were the final eight appearances of Thornton’s time with the Yankees.

On August 5th, the Yankees awarded Thornton to the Nationals on a waiver claim. It was the old trade waiver system, so the Yankees could have pulled Thornton back and kept him, but nope. They let him go to Washington and dumped the $4.5M left on his contract through 2015 (RAB post). Cashman cited lefty bullpen prospects Jacob Lindgren, James Pazos, and Tyler Webb as a reason for salary dumping Thornton.

“We also obviously have some young left-handers emerging rather quickly that we’re excited about,” Cashman told Jorge Arangure. “So this is about giving us some flexibility in the near term because of what’s going on with our starting rotation with the injuries, and in the long term next year with a lot of the choices we feel are starting to knock on the door. Some of those you might see this year as well. It’s about flexibility. No more no less.”

In his four months as a Yankee, Thornton pitched to a 2.55 ERA with 20 strikeouts and six walks in 24.2 innings. He held lefties to a .237/.306/.250 (.258 wOBA) line with 17.2% strikeouts and 3.1% walks (and 54.3% grounders). Also, Thornton allowed 14 of 43 inherited runners to score, including 10 of the final 20. The MLB average was 28% inherited runners scored in 2014.

“I was caught off guard, big time,” Thornton told Dan Martin after the waiver claim. “Being the Yankees, generally when they’re in contention, they’re moving pieces around, but not looking at money. Maybe I overvalued myself. I thought I was an important part of the bullpen and important piece to the team that was trying to fight for a playoff spot.”

Fun fact: Thornton moved into second place on the all-time holds leaderboard during his short stint with the Yankees. He was behind only Arthur Rhodes at the time, and later passed him. Here is the career holds leaderboard (holds became an official stat in 1986 and modern bullpen usage means the top of the leaderboard is mostly active or recently retired pitchers):

1. Tony Watson: 235
2. Tyler Clippard: 222
3. Joaquin Benoit: 212
4. Joe Smith: 211
5. Matt Thornton: 206

Thornton did not allow a run in 18 appearances and 11.1 innings with the Nationals the rest of the season while the Yankees ran Rich Hill and Josh Outman out there as their bullpen lefties down the stretch. In 2015, the then-38-year-old Thornton had a 2.18 ERA in 41.1 innings with the Nationals while the Yankees invested in Andrew Miller and Justin Wilson to solve the lefty relief issue.

A brief stint with the Padres in 2016 went poorly (12 runs in 17 innings) and was the end of Thornton’s career. Despite not making his MLB debut until age 27 and not establishing himself until age 29, Thornton spent parts of 13 seasons in the big leagues and retired with a career 3.41 ERA and +13.5 WAR in 662.2 innings. He signed over $28M in contracts.

“There was a big learning curve for me when I got into the professional game, but they broke me down and built me back up to what I became,” Thornton told Scott Hassinger in 2017. “I had some injuries along the way, but was able to enjoy a career that lasted over 12 years. Now I’m entering the next phase of my life to hopefully be a pretty good dad and husband, and being home with them is good right now.”

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Luis Severino is doing well with his rehab work following the groin injury. He’s played catch on the field the last few days, and although there still isn’t a firm timetable for him to get back up on the mound, it sounds like he’s further ahead of where the Yankees expected him to be one week after the injury. Good news. Unless Severino is pushing too hard and it leads to a setback, of course … MLB announced the second All-Star Game voting update yesterday. As a reminder, this is Phase 1 of the voting and only determines the three finalists at each position. Phase 2 will then pick the All-Star Game starters from the finalists. Here’s where the various Yankees sit in the voting:

• Gary Sanchez: 149,210 votes behind the third catcher spot
• Luke Voit: 217,812 votes behind the third first base spot
• DJ LeMahieu: 57,461 votes up on the third second base spot
• Gleyber Torres: 247,557 votes behind the third shortstop spot
• Gio Urshela: 221,396 votes behind the third third base spot
• Aaron Judge: 671,396 votes up on the ninth outfield spot
• Giancarlo Stanton: 198,914 votes behind the third DH spot

Judge is a lock for an outfield finalist spot and Mike Trout’s injury (Trout may not return in time for the All-Star Game) means he has a good chance to start the All-Star Game too. Sanchez has put himself in the mix with his recent hot streak. Sal Perez (.292/.323/.540 and 131 wRC+) is the clear choice behind the plate, then behind him Sanchez (.237/.340/.480  and 125 wRC+) is up against, uh, Mike Zunino (.193/.282/.507 and 117 wRC+) and Yasmani Grandal (.166/.385/.377 and 124 wRC+)? And I guess Sean Murphy (.214/.321/.406 and 109 wRC+)? AL manager Kevin Cash could take his guy in Zunino, though the managers only pick 3-4 players these days, and there are three catcher spots anyway. Sanchez won’t beat out Perez in the fan voting (nor should he), but I think he has a real good chance to be an All-Star given his recent hot streak and the weak AL catching crop. Anyway, Phase I of the voting closes Thursday. Here’s the ballot … And finally, the Yankees released Kyle Barraclough over the weekend (he’s since signed a minor league deal with the Twins). He pitched pretty well with Triple-A Scranton (3.21 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 14 innings), but there was a bit of a roster crunch, and someone had to go. Barraclough has not pitched in the big leagues since 2019 and he hasn’t been a better than average big leaguer since 2017. So, if you’re still thinking Barraclough could be a bullpen option at some point, forget it. He’s no longer in the organization.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)