April 30th, 2021: Sanchez, Judge, Kluber, King, Garcia, Mailbag

Good look at Aaron Judge's contact rate improvements by Owen McGrattan. Last year he cut his strikeout rate and increased his in-zone contact rate, though it was an unusual 60-game season and easy to disregard as sample size noise. Well, Judge has improved those things again early this year. Check it out. The Yankees are on pace to go 71-91 with 137 games remaining. Here’s what I wrote about the Mike Tauchman trade and here are today’s thoughts.

1. Weekly observations. Just when you think the 2021 Yankees are about to turn their season around, they split a series at Camden Yards and score 17 runs in the four games. It doesn’t help that every move the manager makes backfires. Just from yesterday:

1. Jordan Montgomery going batter-to-batter in the sixth inning when the leadoff hitter (Trey Mancini) smoked him in his first two at-bats (94.9 mph and 110.2 mph singles). Mancini hit a game-tying homer (110.5 mph) to end Montgomery’s afternoon. Just let Chad Green start the inning fresh if Montgomery’s leash is one batter.
2. Giving Tyler Wade the bunt sign in the 10th inning, especially once it got to two strikes and especially against a very hard-throwing lefty. You’re on the road. You’re probably going to need more than one run in extra innings, and the offense isn’t good enough to give away outs. Just swing away.
3. Pitching to Cedric Mullins with the winning run on third in the 10th. First base was open and the Yankees still pitched to the guy who went into the game hitting .340/.392/.532 (192 wRC+). An impossibly dumb decision. Congrats on letting the one guy you can’t let beat you beat you.

Montgomery has to get Mancini out, Wade has to get the bunt down, and Jonathan Loaisiga has to prevent Mullins from getting the run in, but damn yo, maybe the Yankees could put their players in position to succeed at some point? Could be cool. 

Because winning with an offense that owns a .216/.310/.369 (97 wRC+) batting line isn’t difficult enough, the Yankees also have to overcome a handful of unforced errors and bad managerial decisions each night. I would’ve signed up for a 5-3 road trip last week, but it feels so disappointing now. One step forward, one step back. Some thoughts on the week.

Sanchez benched

How long would Gary Sanchez’s leash be this year? 65 plate appearances, apparently. Gary had two good weeks to start the season, then two bad weeks, and now Kyle Higashioka is the starting catcher. He’s started two of the last three games and seven of the last 15. Aaron Boone says the catching situation will be a day-by-day thing, but nah. It’s Higashioka.

“(Higashioka has) just earned more playing time. Simple as that,” Boone told Dan Martin earlier this week. “I’ve talked to Gary (about it). We’ll go day-by-day. Obviously, they’re both gonna play a lot. It’ll be a day-by-day thing that I’ll try to communicate as best I can.”

I’m not sure what the Yankees are supposed to do at this point other than play the guy who has been the better player this year. Literally everyone in the lineup is underperforming and there are only so many changes the Yankees can make. Giving Higashioka more playing time is one of the few moves the Yankees can make to jumpstart a struggling offense.

No one should expect Higashioka to continue hitting .276/.364/.759 (210 wRC+) all season. If he can settle in as a .320 OBP guy and run into 20 homers, that’s a massive win. I’m concerned he won’t hold up under a starter’s workload because he’s never done it (not even in the minors), but we don’t have to worry about that right now.

The Yankees didn’t tender Sanchez and give him a $6.35M contract to bail after only 65 plate appearances. He’ll be back in there before long, and if the offense weren’t struggling so much, maybe the Yankees would’ve been more patient with Gary. That is not their reality though. The offense has been weak and needs as much help as possible, so Higashioka it is.

“Obviously, he wants in the lineup. But certainly, Gary understands (Higashioka) has earned some more things, as well,” Boone told Martin. “Obviously (Higashioka) has done a great job. His improvements over the last couple of years on both sides of the ball have been strong. And I think with the way he’s played here, has earned him some more opportunities.”

Judge banged up

Aaron Judge hasn’t looked 100% physically to me this season (he’s looked tentative in the outfield in particular, I think) and earlier this week Boone revealed Judge has been “pretty sore” the last few days. You may remember he missed two games with a vague side issue earlier this month, after missing the final weekend of Grapefruit League play (with an illness, supposedly).

“(Judge has) been pretty sore the last couple of days,” Boone told Brendan Kuty after Monday’s game. “Been wanting to get him a day here. Just wanted to get him off his feet there at the end, probably get him one of these next two days, a full day. But he’s doing all right.”

Judge of course sat the next two games, not one of the two. Whatever’s bothering him, it can’t be too bad, because he hit a home run Tuesday and foolishly tried to advance to third base in the eighth inning Monday. I have noticed him moving gingerly in the outfield though. Judge’s defensive ratings are in the tank in early going and maybe that’s related to him not going all-out in the field (or maybe it's just a one-month sample).

• DRS: -3 (+24 from 2019-20)
• UZR: -0.9 (+15.0 from 2019-20)
• OAA: -2 (+8 from 2019-20)

I’m confident whatever’s bothering Judge isn’t too serious because the Yankees would not have made the Mike Tauchman trade otherwise. If they were concerned he’d miss time, they would’ve kept Tauchman as outfield depth. Similar to Luke Voit’s “foot stuff” last year, this mystery soreness seems like something Judge will have to manage. Playing hurt is part of baseball.

“I’m going to get him a day here, try and just stay in front of anything that comes up,” Boone told Kuty. “Not overly concerned but just want to make sure through this stretch obviously, we knew this 13 games with the travel and everything was coming, and still try to build these guys up a little bit.”

Kluber’s great start

At last, Corey Kluber had a legitimate strong start, and not a “there were promising signs before it fell apart” start. He held an admittedly weak Orioles lineup to one run on six hits and two walks in 6.2 innings. Kluber struck out five and had a season high 17 swings and misses in 96 pitches. He had 18 swings and misses in his previous two starts combined.

“Getting the win is the most important thing, but I've been saying that I feel like I'm close,” Kluber told Bryan Hoch after the game. “It was good to finally go out there and string together a good outing. Any win you can get is a special one.”

Kluber’s velocity was up noticeably Tuesday. His sinker averaged 91.5 mph, up from 90.2 mph in his previous start, and he threw six of his 10 hardest pitches of the season in that game. The location still wasn’t great, but it does seem to be getting better. For the most part Kluber kept his sinker and cutter out of the middle of the zone, which had been a problem in his first four starts.

Boone stuck with Kluber longer than I would have -- he was leaving pitches up in the zone and giving up hard contact in the sixth inning, and then went back out to start the seventh anyway -- but no harm, no foul. I reckon the four-run lead had something to do with that. Kluber probably would’ve been out of the game in the sixth with a one or two-run lead.

“That's the goal every time out as a starter,” Kluber told Hoch. “Our bullpen has been unbelievable thus far this year. They've probably had to cover more innings than we'd all like this far. For them to continue to have that success throughout the course of the season, I think that as much as we can lessen their burden, the better.”

By now it’s old news that Kluber has historically been a slow starter, and between Tuesday’s start and the first four innings of his previous start, it looks like he’s beginning to turn a corner. I don’t expect 2014-18 Kluber, that’s unrealistic, but give me six above-average innings every 5-6 days and I’ll be thrilled. Glad to finally see some steps in the right direction.

King demoted again

The season is four weeks old and already three times Mike King has been demoted after a scoreless outing. This time he went six up, five down (with a double play) in Wednesday’s win, then was sent down to make room for new Yankee Wandy Peralta. The most innings among pitchers with zero runs allowed this year:

1. Garrett Whitlock, Red Sox: 13.1
2. Alex Reyes, Cardinals: 12.1
3. Mike King, Yankees: 11
4. Kendall Graveman, Mariners: 10.2
5. Richard Rodriguez, Pirates: 10.1

I mentioned this last week and it’s worth repeating: I hate bullpen shuttles. I understand why teams use them, and they’re not doing anything against the rules, but bullpen shuttles suck. Undeserving pitchers like King are sent out because they’re unavailable, not because they’re incapable. I get it, but I hate it. Players who perform should stay in MLB, full stop.

The Yankees keep sending King down in part to keep him stretched out as a rotation option (he’s made 80-ish pitch starts at the alternate site during his demotions) and I get it, but man, there has to be a better way to do this. I don’t see King as a savior or anything. I think he is one of the 13 best pitchers in the organization though, and he should be with the Yankees.

MLB was going to change the 10-day rule to a 15-day rule for pitchers this year in an effort to limit all the pitching transactions, but it didn’t happen for whatever reason. It might be worth bumping it up to 20 days. I’m not sure an extra five days is enough to deter bullpen shuttles. An extra 10 though? That could help keep guys like King in the big leagues.

Deivi’s new-ish slider

Deivi Garcia made his season debut earlier this week and was fine, and he also looked a little different than the guy we saw last year. He was throwing harder, he threw fewer fastballs, and his location wasn’t as good. Deivi also had a different shape to his slider. Friend of the blog Lucas A pointed it out the other day:

The slider has the same velocity and spin rate as last year, but different movement. Last year’s slider almost looked like a curveball given the vertical break. This year’s slider has more side to side break like a traditional slider. This didn’t happen by accident. Garcia said he was working on his slider while at the alternate site the last few weeks.

"I did want to focus a little bit on my slider (at the alternate site)," Deivi told Kristie Ackert earlier this week. "It's a pitch I like and I've been using and wanted to just get better with it and see what situations in the game I can use it."

Also, pitching coach Matt Blake told Kuty (subs. req'd) that Garcia has been "refining the shape of his slider," so there you go.

Garcia’s slider and curveball now look more like two distinct pitches. There is about a 7 mph velocity separation between the two, though the movement was similar last year. Now they’re moving different ways. The curveball goes north-south and the slider goes east-west. Here are the pitch movement graphs (full-size image):

The slider (green dots) and curveball (orange dots) were bunched close together last season, meaning similar movement. This year they’re farther apart because the slider is moving to the side more than down. Even with the velocity separation, the two pitches would occasionally bleed together, and look like one breaking ball. Now they have very different characteristics.

We’ll see Garcia again soon enough, likely when the Yankees have their next 13 games in 13 days stretch from May 11th to 23rd, and we’ll see how the slider behaves then. The new break is something he worked on though. This was intentional, and now Deivi’s four-pitch mix is more like a true four-pitch mix because the slider and curveball have different shapes.

More outs on the bases

The Yankees run the bases like they think they’re invisible. During the Orioles series Judge was thrown out at third base Monday (we’ve discussed that already). On Tuesday, Giancarlo Stanton was thrown out at home because third base coach Phil Nevin foolishly sent him on a single to Austin Hays in left. Look where Stanton was when the ball got to Hays:

Good grief. Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote Hays has a “plus arm” last year, the last time he was prospect-eligible, and not 24 hours earlier Nevin had a front row seat for Hays throwing Judge out at third. Either Nevin didn’t know Hays was in left field or he didn’t know the scouting report on his arm. I’m not sure which would be worse, to be honest.

Then, on Wednesday, Clint Frazier was thrown out trying to advance to third on a ground ball to the shortstop. Baserunning 101 and Clint failed. Understandable he’d forget how to run the bases given how little he’s actually been on base this year. Boone shot Frazier the death stare in the dugout after the play …

… and it amuses me that after all the careless errors and baserunning blunders this year, that is the play that finally made Boone outwardly angry. The dumb mistake with a 5-0 lead with the starter cruising and the other team completely checked out and ready to go home. That’s the one that sent him over the edge. Better late than never I guess.

"It was a bad baserunning mistake,” Frazier told Erik Boland after the game. “ … There's not really any other way to sum it up other than it can't happen and it's not going to happen again."

"Just a bad read. It’s almost like he looked at it, saw the guy was going to catch it, and just kind of broke,” Boone told Marly Rivera. “Obviously, a mistake there. Reggie (Willits) and (Carlos Mendoza) have spoken with him, just to talk about the read and making sure we're obviously aware of where guys are positioned and obviously with the shifts you got to be uber-aware of where the defenders are."

The Yankees are up to 13 outs on the bases this season, the most in baseball (no other team has more than 10) and the same number they made during the 60-game season a year ago. They also lead baseball with six outs at home. FanGraphs baserunning has them at -3.5 runs on the bases this year, fourth worst in baseball, and I’m surprised it’s only -3.5 runs.

I understand the offense has struggled and the guys are trying to generate runs however they can, but this is a station-to-station team. You can’t make it something it's not. Every game the Yankees have to overcome a bad mistake or three. Beating the other team is hard enough, and the Yankees keep making life more difficult for themselves than it needs to be.

2. New opponents. Because of regional play last season and scheduling quirks, the Yankees have played their last 92 games (regular season and postseason) against the other four AL East teams, the five NL East teams, and Cleveland. That’s an awful lot of games against the same 10 opponents. It’s been a bit repetitive, no?

Tonight the Yankees will play their first game against a non-East, non-Cleveland opponent in 560 days. Since Game 6 of the 2019 ALCS against the Astros. Their last regular season game against a non-East, non-Cleveland opponent was the final game of the 2019 regular season, which the Yankees closed in Texas. It was the final game in Globe Life Park history.

The Tigers are in the Bronx this weekend for a three-game series. It will be the first time the Yankees play the Tigers since a doubleheader on Sept. 12th, 2019, in Detroit. That was back when nine-inning doubleheader games were still a thing. In true 2019 Yankees style, they lost three players to injury that day (Edwin Encarnacion, J.A. Happ, Gary Sanchez). Oy vey.

Anyway, I bring this up only because I’m looking forward to the Yankees playing a new team for the first time in a long time. I can’t be the only one sick of facing those same 10 teams over and over, can I? I didn’t think I’d miss games against Central and West teams until they were taken away and we were stuck seeing Randal Grichuk’s stupid face every other weekend.

In all seriousness, I watch an embarrassing amount of baseball, so it’s not like I haven’t seen all those other teams since the last time they played the Yankees. But, I do watch the Yankees more than I watch any other team, and variety is the spice of life. This sport is enough of a grind. Facing the same opponents over and over again takes some of the excitement away.

Three games against the Tigers this weekend and three games against the Astros next week -- it’ll be nice to hear someone other than the Yankees get booed at Yankee Stadium, eh? -- then it’s back to the East grind a bit. Overall, the Yankees will play 16 of their next 28 games against non-East, non-Cleveland teams. I’m surprised how much I’m looking forward to it.

3. 2021 draft prospect: UCLA SS Matt McLain. The 2021 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) reports MLB has informed teams the draft will be 20 rounds, the minimum number allowed under last year’s March agreement. The Yankees hold the No. 20 pick. Here is our 2021 draft prospect coverage archive.

McLain, 21, was the 25th overall pick in the 2018 draft, but he turned down a slot offer from the Diamondbacks (roughly $2.64M), and instead followed through on his commitment to UCLA. He had a poor freshman year (.203/.276/.355) and had a great start to his sophomore year before the pandemic cut the season short (.397/.422/.621).

This spring McLain owns a .329/.420/.589 batting line with nine homers and the same number of walks as strikeouts (24 each) through 36 games. He handled himself very well against top competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League two summers ago, hitting .274/.394/.425 in 34 games. McLain is definitely a known commodity. He’s been on the radar a long, long time.

McLain came into the spring as a potential top five pick, though he had a poor start to his season and slipped a bit before heating up. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks him as the No. 14 prospect in the draft class and MLB.com has him at No. 15. Here’s some video and here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

He’s always had very good bat-to-ball skills with surprising power, but there’s even more pop in his right-handed swing now. His increased physicality has helped him in all facets of the game. He’s still a plus runner with a stronger arm than he had in high school and better overall athleticism … Coming out of high school, it was unclear where McLain’s defensive home would be and he’s played all over the diamond for UCLA and on the Cape. He’s worked hard on his defense, however, especially his hands and his footwork, and scouts think he has a good chance to stick at shortstop.

For what it’s worth, Jonathan Mayo has the Yankees taking McLain in his latest mock draft, though that seems to be his speculation more than a firm “the Yankees are on him” thing. Mayo also notes “McLain started the season incredibly slowly, otherwise he’d be in the conversation much higher than this.”

McLain is on the small side (listed at 5-foot-11 and 180 lbs.), though that really shouldn’t matter these days. Sub-6-footers like Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez have ranked among the sport’s best players for the better part of the last decade. Maybe McLain's size will cause some teams to underrate him and let him slip to the Yankees at No. 20?

Baseball America’s scouting report says McLain “does everything on the field at a high level and (has) well-rounded skill set,” and he has played six positions in college (second, short, third, and all three outfield spots), so he’s shown the aptitude to move around. He runs well, there’s power in his bat, and there’s at least a chance he stays at short. It’s a nice little tools package.

McLain’s up and down performance is a bit of a red flag -- his career 24.6% college strikeout rate is high for a first round draft prospect, though it is down to a more manageable 13.9% this spring -- though college shortstops who dominate and have this skill set usually don’t last to the No. 20 pick. There’s Gordon Beckham/Grant Green risk here, but McLain’s upside is high.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Luke Voit took live at-bats at the alternate site for the first time yesterday. He’s been doing defensive work at first base for about a week now, and now he’s advanced to facing live pitchers. Hooray for progress. Voit is going to play in a bunch of minor league rehab games before rejoining the Yankees, so figure he’s still 2-3 weeks away, but at least everything is going well post-knee surgery. Yankees first basemen are hitting .161/.264/.290 (64 wRC+) this year, if you can believe that … Robinson Chirinos, who took a pitch to the wrist and needed surgery to repair a fracture last month, played in his first alternate site game earlier this week, according to Conor Foley. He caught too. They didn’t ease him back in as the DH (the injury was to his right wrist, his non-glove hand). Chirinos getting healthy is good news for the ol’ catcher depth chart, and it’s just in time with the minor league season beginning next week … And finally, the independent Pioneer League announced a few rule changes earlier this week. Most notably, they’ll decide games that are tied after nine innings with a home run derby instead of extra innings. They’re also implementing a Designated Pinch-Hitter and Designated Pinch-Runner rule in which a team can replace a player with a pinch-hitter or pinch-runner without removing him from the game. For example, the Yankees could pinch-run Brett Gardner for Giancarlo Stanton, then keep Stanton in the game. Teams get one such move per game, and the player who does the pinch-hitting or pinch-running can not be reinserted into the game later (Gardner would be burned in our example). This was me when I first read about this rule:

As a weirdo who likes the runner on second extra innings tiebreaker rule and is generally more open to trying new things than the typical baseball fan, I like it. It creates an opportunity for more offense and teams wouldn’t have to sweat running out of players quite as much (they could pinch-hit or pinch-run for their catcher without having to use their backup, for example). If it can only be one or the other, go with the Designated Pinch-Runner over the Designated Pinch-Hitter to get a little more speed and baserunning in the game. I can’t see MLB going for this because it doesn’t really solve a problem, but I like the idea.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Nick asks: So if Higgy is officially the "starting catcher" moving forward, they kind of have to trade Gary, no? If he is moved now, that gives them an extra ~$16M to play with at the deadline which seems like a big deal. Of course they'd also have to bring in a new backup catcher. Do you see a series of moves that makes sense? Or do you think they just stick with Gary and eventually put him back into the starter role?

Luxury tax hits are prorated for in-season additions, so the Yankees could absorb a player with a $16M-ish full season salary should they trade Gary Sanchez and his $6.35M salary at the deadline. I don’t think they’re trading him though. For starters, his value is in the tank and you’re probably not getting anything worthwhile back. Trading him solely to clear salary gets a no from me.

The Yankees would also have to replace Sanchez as the backup catcher and that’s easier said than done, especially at midseason. Does anyone really want to lean on soon-to-be 37-year-old Robinson Chirinos or Quad-A journeyman Rob Brantly as anything more than Plan C? I think you’re better off keeping Sanchez, who can step in as the starter in case of injury, and is capable of hitting 10 home runs in a month. Few catchers have that ability.

I don’t like the “trade Sanchez to clear salary to do something else” strategy. For starters, these are the Yankees, and they can do anything they want without having to clear salary. It’s not my fault or Sanchez’s fault they choose not to. Also, I’d rather just keep him as depth. Gary is better than just about any backup catcher type you’ll find on the trade market, and he won’t have to learn the pitching staff on the fly.

Eli asks: It’s early but so far seems keeping Nick Nelson on the 40-man and leaving Whitlock unprotected was not a great move? Hindsight 20/20 and all, but the Yankees’ roster construction and 40-man choices have been odd to say the least.

If anyone should’ve gotten the axe for Garrett Whitlock, it’s Brooks Kriske, not Nelson. Kriske is two years older than Nelson, he’s already blown out his arm once, and it’s a dime-a-dozen skill set as a hard-throwing reliever with bad control. With Wandy Peralta around, I imagine Kriske is next to get dropped from the 40-man roster when a spot is needed.

Whitlock has been great with the Red Sox (13.1 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 18 K), and if there were ever a year for players to slip through the cracks and become Rule 5 Draft stars, this was it. There was no minor league season a year ago and it was harder to keep tabs on your own players. Akil Baddoo looks like a find for the Tigers and Whitlock looks like a find for the Red Sox.

For the Yankees, the issue boils down to roster management more than misreading Whitlock. The Yankees are trying to win a World Series and they have five players on the 40-man roster who can’t help the MLB team this season: Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gomez, Luis Medina, Oswald Peraza, and Alex Vizcaino. Estevan Florial badly needs at-bats after injuries and the pandemic, so we could include him in that group too.

The 40-man is cluttered with non-MLB options after the Yankees did nothing at the last two trade deadlines. They never consolidated their talent the way the Astros did with the Gerrit Cole trade, the Dodgers did with the Mookie Betts trade, and the Padres did with their trades (Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, etc.). You can’t keep everyone, but the Yankees tried.

It wasn’t until this year that the Yankees started using their farm system’s depth to improve the MLB roster (the Jameson Taillon trade, most notably), so better late than never, but yeah, they really needed to move out some prospects for MLB help the last two years. It would’ve improved their chances at a title and also created a more workable roster.

It’s only been a month, but Whitlock looks like a miss by the Yankees (it looks worse because it’s the Red Sox, though it would’ve been bad if he were with the Mariners or Rangers or some other non-rival) and eh, it happens. No use in crying over spilled milk. The bigger issue has been roster management. Is the priority now or the future? Because the Yankees have tried to toe the line and focus on both, and it sure seems like the result is maximizing neither.

Tim asks: This woke me up the other day. 3-0 counts and the batter almost always takes. Any way to see how many (or %) swings there are on 3-0 counts? Pitcher is going to groove one (doesn’t want the 4 pitch walk) – maybe slightly down in velocity – and the batter will watch it run over the middle of the plate usually for strike one. What if batters became hyper aggressive on 3-0? Any BABIP stats on 3-0 counts? Maybe BABIP is lower (many swings are going for the fences) but to me, it’s THE MOST advantageous count. Feels like there is a lot to dig into Moneyball-wise….(a) always wish for ball four (and how often is it ball four)? (b) hunt the 3-0 pitch? If looking to hit it, does this result in better outcomes?

I wrote about this back in 2017, when the Yankees roughly doubled their 3-0 swing rate from the year before. From 2014-16, the Yankees ranked near the bottom of the league in 3-0 swing rate (around 6.2%). In 2017, they were almost exactly league average at 9.2%. Here are the team’s (and MLB’s) swing rates in 3-0 counts since then:

• 2018: 7.0% (MLB average: 10.7%)
• 2019: 7.4% (MLB average: 11.0%)
• 2020: 19.4% (MLB average: 10.5%)
• 2021: 9.1% (MLB average: 9.6%)

That includes all swings in 3-0 counts, not just balls in play. If the batter swung and missed or fouled it away, it counts. We’re looking at the intention to swing, not the results. The league average has increased the last few years. It was under 9% every year from 2014-16, and now it’s close to 10%. Hitters are swinging more often in 3-0 counts.

As for the Yankees, those 2020-21 swing rates come in small samples, so it’s hard to read too much into them. That 19.4% last year is based on 12 swings in 62 3-0 counts. I am pro-turning it loose in a 3-0 count and wish the Yankees did it more often. Look at this 3-0 meatball Aaron Hicks took the other day (video link):

Gah. That’s in the second inning against the reigning Cy Young winner. I understand wanting to drive up his pitch count, but Shane Bieber is not giving you a better pitch to hit than that (Bieber bounced back to strike Hicks out following the 3-0 count). I’m not saying you should swing at every 3-0 pitch. Just be ready and don’t take a courtesy strike just because.

In the early going this year the league is hitting .350 with a .950 slugging percentage in 3-0 counts, though it’s only a .235 BABIP because six of the 14 hits have left the yard, and home runs aren’t balls in play. Last year it was a .366 AVG and .894 SLG with a .248 BABIP. In 2019, the last full 162-game season, it was a .410 AVG and .846 SLG with a .332 BABIP.

Selection bias plays a major role in those numbers because hitters typically only swing at their pitch in 3-0 count. They keyhole in on a certain pitch in a certain location, and if they don’t get it, they take it. Start swinging more often in 3-0 counts and pitchers will pitch differently, and the AVG and SLG will start to move closer to the league’s overall AVG and SLG. It's take a ton -- A TON -- of 3-0 swings for that to happen, but it would happen eventually.

There are unwritten rules about swinging 3-0 (remember the Fernando Tatis Jr. grand slam?) and like most unwritten rules, they’re silly. You’re there to win a game, not make sure the other team’s feelings aren’t hurt. I don’t know what the magic number is (10%? 12%? 19.76%?), but I feel like there’s room to swing more often in 3-0 counts. It’s an ideal damage pitch.

Kai asks: What if MLB removed check swings? With all the talk around decreasing strikeouts (moving mound back, etc.), I haven't seen anyone mention relaxing the rules on check swings. Since pitchers are throwing harder than ever with nastier stuff, there's even less time for a batter to react—but it's pretty easy to tell when a batter is making a real swing attempt vs. trying to hold up. Maybe this could be something for home plate umps to call with an automated strike zone? Would this ever happen? What would the consequences be?

There is no official definition of a check swing. The rulebook defines a swing as “an attempt to strike at the ball,” and says check swing appeals can only be made when the home plate umpire rules the batter did not swing. That’s it. All that stuff you hear about “breaking the plane” or “rolling your wrists” is not in the rulebook. It’s just stuff broadcasters say.

By removing check swings, I assume Kai means all check swings would be ruled a ball. If MLB started calling every check swing a strike, forget it, the league strikeout rate would jump to like 60% and there would be a no-hitter a week. The scales are heavily tilted in the pitcher’s favor these days. Automatic check swing balls would give the hitters more of a chance.

Pitch tracking goes back to 2008 but the systems do not identify check swings, so we can’t go back to see how often they happen, how often they’re called swings, etc. My guess is there are more check swings now than in the past because pitchers throw so many nasty offspeed pitches. Even with velocity at an all-time high, fastball usage is on the decline.

Eliminating check swings would be a seismic change to the sport and I have no idea how it would impact play, game planning, the day to day results, etc. MLB would have to test it and test it thoroughly before implementing such a rule. Maybe the solution is giving the hitter more leeway and allowing a bigger swing on check swings rather than eliminating them entirely? Or maybe treat them like foul balls and they don't count for strike three?

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)