April 2nd, 2021: Opening Day, Roster Moves, Prospects, Mailbag

Allow me to quickly self-promote: I wrote a super early trade deadline preview and made 21 bold predictions for 2021 over at CBS, so check those out. Or just click them and leave the tab open for a few minutes. Maybe even scroll to the bottom. Thanks. Let’s get to today’s thoughts now that the Yankees are on pace to go 0-162.

1. Opening Day overreactions. In the surest sign 2020 is over, Gary Sanchez was the best player on the field Opening Day, and everyone else stunk. Everything was backwards. Then again, the Yankees got beat by Randal Grichuk, and that is all too familiar. The three-year Opening Day winning streak is over and the Yankees are in last place. Let’s overreact.

Judge’s stinker

Woof, awful game for Aaron Judge (despite a hard-hit single). He hit into an inning-ending 5-4-3 double play with the bases loaded in the seventh, struck out with the winning run on third in the ninth, and badly misplayed Grichuk’s double in the tenth. The 2-0 fastball he took in that seventh inning at-bat ...

… was a killer. An 89.8 mph fastball over the plate in a 2-0 count, and Judge took it. Everyone and their mother pitches backwards these days, and Judge was clearly sitting offspeed, but damn man, that was the best pitch he saw all day. The next pitch was a sinker that ran in on Judge’s hands and boom, inning-ending double play. Rough.

“I’ve just got to get the ball in the air (in the seventh inning) and give us the lead,” Judge said after the game. “In the ninth, the same thing. We had guys in scoring position and I didn’t come through.”

On Grichuk’s game-winning tenth inning double, Judge initially broke in, then had to correct and go back on a ball that wound up just beyond his reach. I can't remember the last time he misread a ball like that. Judge is an excellent defender and he totally really misread that ball. Given how close he came to catching it despite misplaying it, I reckon he would’ve made the catch with a proper read.

Let’s do some quick win probably math, shall we?

• Runner on second, no outs (before the play): 50.0% chance of a Yankees win
• Runner on second, no outs, one run in (after the play): 12.4%
• Runner on third, one out (hypothetical if Judge makes the catch and the runner at second advances on the fly ball): 38.0%

That’s a 25.6% win probability swing (38.0% minus 12.4%). Offensively, Judge was at -32.9% win probability because of the two high-leverage rally killers, then there was the 25.6% swing on the misplay. All told, Judge was responsible for nearly 60% of the loss. That would be the worst game of his career. The -32.9% on offense alone is the third worst game of his career:

1. April 8th, 2018 vs. Orioles: -51.9%
2. Sept. 9th, 2020 at Red Sox: -34.9%
3. April 1st, 2021 vs. Blue Jays: -32.9%
4. July 27th, 2017 vs. Rays: -29.1%
5. Several tied at -25.0%

Brutal Opening Day for Judge. Brutal Opening Day for lots of Yankees, really, but especially Judge. The Yankees twice had the guy they want at the plate in big situations in the late innings of a close game, and he made three total outs. Rough. Rough rough rough.

Late-inning offense

Offensively, the late innings of Opening Day looked all too familiar. The Blue Jays trotted out hard-throwing righty after hard-throwing righty, and the Yankees were unable to muster much of anything. Here are the fastball velocities on the last three pitchers Toronto used:

• Rafael Dolis: 94.3 mph average and 95.3 mph max
• Jordan Romano: 96.6 mph and 97.5 mph
• Julian Merryweather: 98.4 mph and 99.1 mph

Dolis, Romano, and Merryweather combined to face 12 batters and they struck out seven, and they got 14 misses on 19 swings. 14 misses on 19 swings! Opening Day, one game, blah blah blah, I know. But I've seen this happen too many times the last few years to know it wasn’t a one-game blip. Throw a parade of power righties at the Yankees, and you’ll have success.

DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela put six balls in play with an average exit velocity of 80.7 mph (eek). Giancarlo Stanton went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts, a 59.8 mph grounder, and an 81.2 mph grounder (oof). The 1-2-3-4 hitters went a combined 1-for-18 with eight strikeouts (yikes). In 10 innings the Yankees hit three balls that required an outfielder to go back. You’re not going to win many games when you hit the ball here:

“They made the pitches today. We just couldn’t break through with a big hit,” Aaron Boone said after the game. “We had our chances. I thought we pitched the ball pretty well and made the plays. We gave ourselves opportunities. If we continue to do that, we’ll break through.”

Games like this highlight the need for another lefty bat. A good lefty bat, I mean. Not late career Jay Bruce. If only there was a time the team could've addressed this. A period when they didn’t play. A season when they were off, you could say. The Yankees are going to score a ton of runs this year, though their vulnerability (too right-handed) is a little too easy to exploit with the right personnel. We saw it again on Opening Day.

Sending Tauchman

I was surprised Boone used Mike Tauchman as a pinch-runner over Tyler Wade and Brett Gardner. Sprint speed says Tauchman is the slowest of the three, but I guess with Gardner on the roster, it makes sense. Tauchman’s not slow, plus he and Gardner are redundant. If you’re going to limit one guy to pinch-running, he’s the guy to do it. Gardner can hit righties and Wade’s the only backup infielder. You can burn Tauchman and not lose much, strategically.

Anyway, pinch-running Tauchman worked! He stole second and third (I guess the shin is okay after the foul ball Sunday), and got to third with one out in the ninth inning of a tie game. Then he was thrown out at home on the contact play on LeMahieu’s weak grounder. And you know what? I was totally cool with sending Tauchman there, for three reasons:

• If the run scores, the game’s over. You’re not trying to build a big rally.
• The Blue Jays have a second baseman playing third base (Cavan Biggio).
• I think the chances of an off-line throw or a bobble are better than a two-out hit.

If there were no outs in the inning, of course you hold Tauchman. With one out and a runner on second (so the next batter will still have a runner in scoring position), then push the envelope and send him. I don’t like relying on two-out hits. The contact play is like a third base coach. You only notice it when something bad happens, and something bad happened there, but that doesn’t mean it was the wrong idea. Force them to make the play, and they did.

Gary’s good game

Did any player in the entire league need a good Opening Day more than Sanchez? I don’t think so. He hit a two-run home run in his first at-bat, legged out an infield single in his third at-bat, and worked a walk in his fourth at-bat. The infield single and walk led off innings with the score tied, but the rest of the Yankees couldn’t cash in.

Sanchez also caught Gerrit Cole after the personal catcher business last year, and Cole had a good (but not dominant) start. They had to work through command issues early, then Cole settled down and retired 13 of the final 17 batters he faced, seven via strikeouts. Sanchez also threw a runner out trying to steal second. One game is one game, but it was an all-around good game for Gary. After last year, he needed a good Opening Day.

“It feels good to get going this way,” Sanchez said after the game. “I spoke about consistency before and I think I had that today in all the at-bats. So that’s definitely something I want to keep on having throughout the other games as they come. Behind the plate as well, I thought it was a good game.”

Fans!

There were only 10,850 people in the stands (a sellout!) but it sure was nice to have real live butts in the seats. The Roll Call returned, the rhythmic clapping with two strikes returned, and boos returned too. The crowd was authentic and it makes a big difference. MLB did the best it could under the circumstances with the fake crowd noise last year. Give me a real crowd over that any day of the week though, even if it’s only 10,850 fans.

“It’s part of it. Those fans want to watch winners,” Judge said when asked about the boos. “They let us know when we don’t do our job, and we didn’t do our job today. It was quite a few opportunities, especially me at the plate with guys in scoring position. I could have given us a lead or done something. We just didn’t execute.”

2. Roster notes. The Yankees announced their Opening Day roster yesterday morning and it was as expected. No last minute surprises. For posterity, here’s the roster:

Several other teams have announced their alternate site roster but not the Yankees. I hope that happens soon. The Mets sent 22 players to the alt site and the Cardinals sent 26, so that’s the general roster size teams are working with. Last year it was 32 players. Anyway, here are a few quick thoughts on the latest roster moves and updates.

Luetge in the bullpen

For the first time since 2016*, Luetge is a big leaguer. He made the Opening Day bullpen, and while the Britton and Wilson injuries surely helped his cause, Luetge put himself in position to be on the roster with an excellent spring (10.1 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 18 K). He forced the Yankees to consider him, unlike, say, Kyle Barraclough.

* Luetge has not pitched in an MLB game since 2015, though the Angels called him up for three days in May 2016. He was designated for assignment after sitting in the bullpen for three days.

At some point during his recent minor league adventures Luetge greatly improved his spin rates, and they’re what attracted the Yankees to him in the first place. Among the pitchers who pitched in Statcast parks this spring, Luetge had the …

• … 3rd highest fastball spin rate (2,691 rpm)
• … 6th highest curveball spin rate (2,883 rpm)
• … 15th highest slider spin rate (2,831 rpm)

… and he led the Yankees on all three pitches. His spin rates were better than Cole’s and Chapman’s, which is bonkers. Luetge only sits around 90 mph with his fastball, but he can really spin it, ditto his two breaking balls. He overpowers hitters without velocity. It’s fascinating.

“When I was with the Mariners, I was more of a two-seam guy,” Luetge said before yesterday’s game. “I kinda abandoned that in 2019, maybe before that. Became a cutter, four-seam guy. So to me that’s the biggest difference. Of course, back then two-seam down in the zone was what everyone was doing. Now it’s four-seam up in the zone to get rise on the ball.”

Luetge did not pitch Opening Day (he warmed up at one point), so maybe he’ll get into a game and make his Yankees debut this weekend. Whenever it happens, it won’t take all that much for Luetge to go down as a success. As a non-roster signing, 15-20 good innings and the Yankees will be firmly in the black. On a star-studded roster, Luetge’s the feel good story.

“There were a lot of different ways we were considering going for that spot, but it was hard to deny what Lucas was able to do,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. “He came in from the start of camp and really pushed his way onto the roster. He earned his spot and I’m excited to see what he can potentially go out and do for us.”

Britton to 60-day injured list

To clear a 40-man roster spot for Luetge, the Yankees placed Britton on the 60-day injured list. He had surgery to remove bone chips from his wrist March 15th and the 60-day clock began on Opening Day, so Britton can return no earlier than May 30th. When Britton had his surgery I figured late May or early June was the best case scenario, so yeah, 60-day injured list makes sense. There was no setback or delay or anything here, unlike Clarke Schmidt.

Wilson to 10-day injured list

The Yankees placed Wilson on the 10-day injured list with what they're calling shoulder inflammation. The move is backdated to March 29th, so Wilson could be activated as soon as next Friday (he’s eligible to return Thursday, though that’s an off-day). He threw bullpen sessions Monday and Wednesday and all went well, and my guess is he’ll either throw another bullpen session or face hitters today. All indications are this will be a short injured list stint. Good news.

Holder returns

Welcome back, Kyle Holder. The Reds returned Holder to the Yankees as a Rule 5 Draft pick earlier this week, the team announced. That means he cleared waivers and is back with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. The Phillies originally selected Holder in the Rule 5 Draft, then traded him to Cincinnati for cash after re-signing Didi Gregorius.

Holder, 27 in May, didn’t hit much in Spring Training (7-for-32) and might’ve made the Reds had he shown anything with the bat. They moved Eugenio Suarez back to short, a position he last played regularly in 2015, because they don’t have a shortstop. Holder isn’t much with the bat but he is an above-average defender. The Yankees are sending him to the alt site, where he spent last season.

3. Prospect Statcasting. Statcast has been installed in 11 Spring Training parks so far and fortunately four of them were in the Yankees’ little five-team Grapefruit League bubble (Blue Jays, Tigers, Pirates, and Yankees have it but not the Orioles). We have more data than ever, and even though it’s only Spring Training, things like spin rate and exit velocity are useful.

Spring Training Statcast means we finally have access to prospect analytics. We’ve heard more about this stuff in recent years -- Aaron Judge was the first “this guy’s exit velocity is insane!” prospect I can remember -- and now we have actual numbers from actual games. Let’s dig through the numbers on the prospects the Yankees had in camp, shall we?

Exit Velo City

Recent research indicates top end exit velocity (a hitter’s top 5% or so of batted balls) is more predictive than average velocity, but, generally speaking, hit the ball hard and good things will happen. The MLB average exit velocity hovers around 88 mph each year, and I suspect the average drops a little each step down the minor league ladder.

Here are the exit velocity numbers on the few notable prospects the Yankees had in camp:

• 2B Ezequiel Duran: 98.1 mph average and 112.3 mph max (7 batted balls)
• OF Estevan Florial: 89.7 mph average and 107.2 mph max (12 batted balls)
• 1B Chris Gittens: 95.4 mph average and 118.8 mph max (11 batted balls)
• SS Oswald Peraza: 94.4 mph average and 107.8 mph max (7 batted balls)
• C Austin Wells: 89.7 mph average and 104.5 mph max (6 batted balls)

Gittens has long been an exit velocity monster (he reportedly averaged over 96 mph during his Double-A Eastern League MVP season in 2019) and he showed it this spring. Five of his 11 recorded batted balls were over 100 mph, and he was one of only two players to hit a ball 118 mph this spring. Here are the highest recorded exit velocities in Spring Training:

1. Giancarlo Stanton: 120.1 mph (line out, video)
2. Chris Gittens: 118.8 mph (ground out, no video)
3. Joshua Mears: 117.3 mph (homer, video)
4. Ryan McBroom: 116.2 mph (ground ball single, no video)
5. Riley Greene: 115.8 mph (double, video)

They don’t call him hard hittin’ Chris Gittens for nothing. Gittens is already 27 and he’s on the light side of the platoon as a right-handed hitter, plus he has big contact issues (29.1% strikeout rate in Double-A in 2019), but the power is huge. The upside is something like former Yankee Chris Carter, though when Carter was Gittens’ age, he had 85 homers in 399 MLB games.

Between Gittens and Mike Ford, the Yankees will have two similar bat-first first base only guys at Triple-A this year, though Ford is a lefty hitter and on the 40-man roster. The fact the Yankees re-signed Gittens so quickly as a minor league free agent this past offseason (even though he wasn’t at the alternate site last year) is telling. They like him enough to keep him around.

I first wrote about Duran’s exit velocity prowess back in 2018, when he was only a handful of games into his pro career. He turns 22 in May and he’s already putting up grown ass man exit velocities. He hit a ball 112.3 mph this spring, which is something Paul Goldschmidt, Francisco Lindor, Luke Voit, Christian Yelich, and many others did not do a single time last season. Of course, that 112.3 mph ball was an unexciting ground ball single (video), but that’s life.

A few weeks ago Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote Peraza “consistently produces louder exit velocities than his small stature would suggest,” and the numbers back it up. A 20-year-old middle infielder who looks every bit his listed 6-foot-0 and 176 lbs., four of Peraza’s seven recorded batted balls were over 100 mph this spring. Here’s the 107.8 mph line drive. Give the young man time to mature and that ball’s over the fence.

The scouting report on Florial has long said the ball jumps off his bat and you can see it here. That’s a 105.5 mph liner off actual big leaguer Anthony Kay. I can definitely see that swing playing well in Yankee Stadium. Florial’s problem is pitch recognition, not power or tools or athleticism. I think that, at worst, he’s a defensive replacement/pinch-runner type. The ability to hit the ball hard is in there though.

Wells didn’t play much and didn’t make much hard contact when he did play. His best contact was this 104.5 mph single off actual big leaguer Vince Velasquez. Anthony Seigler played even less than Seigler and had only two batted balls recorded: 94.9 mph fly out and 82.8 mph ground ball single. Josh Breaux put three balls in play: 79.4 mph, 75.2 mph, and 61.9 mph. Eek.

Gomez’s new slider

Right-hander Yoendrys Gomez, my No. 14 prospect, didn’t pitch much in Grapefruit League play, throwing one seven-pitch inning (four fastballs and three sliders). The slider is a relatively new pitch he started throwing last spring, prior to the shutdown. Here are the averages:

• Fastball: 96.6 mph and 2,442 rpm
• Slider: 83.7 mph and 2,594 rpm

Last year the MLB average was a 2,307 rpm spin rate on four-seam fastballs and a 2,442 rpm spin rate on sliders, and Gomez was better than both in his brief outing. The slider is visually impressive. It looks like an Adam Ottavino slider. Considering Gomez spent last year at home and not at the alt site, the pitch has come a long way in a short period of time.

Gomez will play the entire season at age 21 and the Yankees optioned him to Low-A Tampa, and I don’t think he’ll be there long. Maybe the first month of the season (that means May), and then it’ll be up to High-A Hudson Valley, when the weather is warmer. Impressive arm on that young man though. If nothing else, he can really spin the fastball and this new slider.

Medina’s low spin curveball

For years, Luis Medina’s curveball has been described as a high spin pitch -- Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not mention spin rate in their 2021 scouting report but did call Medina’s curve a “double-plus, hammer curveball” -- though that wasn’t the case in Spring Training. The averages:

• Fastball: 96.8 mph and 2,398 rpm (27 thrown)
• Curveball: 81.3 mph and 2,349 rpm (9 thrown)

The fastball spin is better than average but the curveball spin is comfortably below the 2,531 rpm MLB average. Huh. That runs counter to basically everything I’ve read and heard about Medina’s curveball. Could be a sample size issue, I suppose. I hope it is, anyway.

In two Grapefruit League outings Medina walked five of the 10 batters he faced and threw a wild pitch, so his ostensibly improved control was nowhere to be found. The Yankees sent him to High-A Hudson Valley, though I’m sure they hope he’ll finish the year with Double-A Somerset, especially since he burned his first option year at the alt site last year.

Gil’s new slider

It has been reported the Yankees had Luis Gil scrap his curveball at the alt site last year, and replace it with a slider. That seemed a little odd -- Gil’s curveball was said to be a quality pitch -- though we saw the slider in action this spring, and it was pretty good. To wit (video link):

Statcast recorded 11 Gil sliders (zero curveballs) and they averaged 86.1 mph and 2,531 rpm. That’s pretty darn good. Above-average velocity and above-average spin on a relatively new pitch. Gil’s bread and butter remains his fastball (96.5 mph and 2,438 rpm), though the slider is promising, at least based on the brief Spring Training look.

Similar to Medina, Gil’s biggest problem is control, or lack thereof. He walked 11.5% of the batters he faced in 2019 and it was the lowest walk rate of his career outside the Dominican Summer League. The control (and injury history) may land Gil in the bullpen long-term. If so, the fastball is plenty good enough, and the slider looks like a potential weapon too.

Abreu has velocity … and not much else

It’s a good thing Albert Abreu is not out of minor league options, because he was terrible during Grapefruit League play (4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 3 WP), and I’m not sure the Yankees could’ve put him on the Opening Day roster after that. Abreu did light up the scoreboard in those 4.2 innings though:

• Fastball: 98.4 mph and 2,129 rpm (43 thrown)
• Slider: 85.7 mph and 2,249 rpm (19 thrown)
• Curveball: 81.4 mph and 2,519 rpm (8 thrown)

236 pitchers had at least 25 four-seamers recorded by Statcast this spring and only two, Jacob deGrom (99.2 mph) and Nathan Eovaldi (98.6 mph), had a higher average velocity than Abreu. Also, only 33 of those 236 pitchers had a lower four-seam spin rate. A 2,129 mph spin rate is low, but not so low that it’s conducive to grounders. It’s in the middle, which ain’t good.

The same applies to Abreu’s slider. It has better than average velocity but below-average spin, and that at least somewhat explains why he’s more hittable than the radar gun reading may lead you to believe. Abreu has plenty of velocity but not much life on his pitches. His fastball doesn’t jump on the hitter the same way, say, Gerrit Cole’s does despite similar velocity.

The Yankees have a thing for helping prospects add velocity and spin (and non-prospects too, like David Hale), so I’m sure they’ve tried stuff with Abreu. Whatever it is, it hasn’t taken yet. Similar to velocity, spin rate is not everything, but it is an important piece of the pie, and Abreu is missing that piece. He has only one more minor league option year to figure it out.

4. Royals cut Viloria. I’m still on my “the Yankees need more catching depth” kick even though Robinson Chirinos returned on a new minor league contract earlier this week. Chirinos will miss several weeks with his fractured wrist, however, so Rob Brantly is currently third on the catcher depth chart, and Max McDowell is fourth. McDowell has never played above Double-A.

As part of their Opening Day roster machinations, the Royals designated catcher Meibrys Viloria for assignment. The 24-year-old lefty hitter has spent parts of the last three seasons in the big leagues, hitting .215/.266/.287 (45 wRC+) in 201 plate appearances. He’s rated about average as a pitch-framer while throwing out 32% of attempted basestealers.

The Royals called Viloria up straight from High-A in 2018 and he hit .264/.344/.332 (96 wRC+) in 63 Double-A games in 2019. He split last year between the alternate site and Kansas City, and has yet to play a single Triple-A game. Here’s a snippet of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d) from 2019, the last time Viloria was prospect eligible:

A defense-first backstop, Viloria has a plus arm with a quick release … He's bilingual and knows how to call games behind the plate. Offensively, Viloria has a good feel for hitting with good hands and solid bat speed. He has above-average raw power, but is more of a gap-to-gap, line-drive hitter because his swing is naturally geared to using all fields … He is a tough kid who plays the game with passion.

Nothing exciting, but Viloria is freely available, and the Yankees don’t have much depth behind the plate. He’s a warm body with a minor league option, so the Yankees could easily shuttle him up and down this year. No need to put him on waivers or jump through roster hoops, which would be a consideration with Brantly and Chirinos, should the Yankees need them.

Opening a 40-man roster spot for Viloria could be as easy as putting Luke Voit on the 60-day injured list. He had his meniscus repaired Monday, and although the Yankees have not given a timetable for his return, the expectation is sometime in May. If he's placed on the 60-day injured list, Voit would not be eligible to return until May 30th. Maybe that works? Dunno.

Anyway, I figure if Voit is a 60-day injured list candidate, the Yankees could claim Viloria on waivers and stash him at the alt site. I wrote something similar about Ali Sanchez a few weeks ago but the Cardinals beat the Yankees to the punch, and got him from the Mets in a cash trade. Viloria is cut from the same cloth as Sanchez as a cheap, optionable, defense-first catcher, and that’s something the Yankees could use given their depth chart.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Earlier this week MLB and the MLBPA issued a memo saying health and safety protocols will be relaxed for teams with at least 85% of personnel vaccinated. MLB and the MLBPA aren’t mandating vaccinations, but they are using relaxed protocols as an incentive. Brian Cashman said the Yankees hope to get their vaccinations soon and will stagger them to avoid losing a bunch of players to side effects at once. “Whenever they give us the green light, we’ll put a game plan together and stagger people properly. We know those days are coming sooner than later,” Cashman told Dan Martin. Everyone in New York age 16+ is eligible to receive the vaccine starting next Tuesday. Here’s where you can find a vaccine in the five boroughs … A few weeks ago I looked at the Spring Training home run rate and it was up despite the supposedly deadened baseball. Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur took a more detailed look at the end of Spring Training and yep, the home run rate was still up. The spring home run rate is typically a tad lower than the regular season home run rate, though it tracks closely, and the spring home run rate this year was the highest since at least 2005. MLB is good at nothing if not unintended consequences, and the home run rate rising even after the league changed the ball in hopes of curbing homers would be too funny … And finally, it sounds like YES Network broadcaster Ken Singleton is retiring for real this time. Singleton, 73, originally said he would retire back in 2018, but the network talked him out of it. Andrew Marchand spoke to YES Network head honcho John Filippelli, who confirmed they’re planning a proper sendoff when Singleton calls the final series of the season (home vs. Rays). This will be Singleton’s 54th season in professional baseball (17 as a player and 37 as a broadcaster). He’s my favorite analyst in the game, YES Network or otherwise, and I’ll miss having him in the booth. Hell of a career, he’s had.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Nick asks: Injuries happen and this issue may resolve itself before long, but how much would the Yankees need to see from Estrada (and conversely, how little would they need to see from Wade) in order to make a switch?

Based on the last few years, it’s pretty clear the Yankees like Tyler Wade a lot more than they like Thairo Estrada. Wade’s been entrenched as the utility infielder while Estrada has gone up and down a bunch. Estrada out-hit Wade in Spring Training, though neither was good, and the Yankees still gave Wade the job. It’s clear who they prefer.

Wade hasn’t hit at all in the big leagues (career .190/.274/.301 and 57 wRC+) and it hasn’t been enough to get him replaced, so the “how little would they need to see from Wade” bar is pretty low. Estrada hitting well in fake games at the alternate site isn’t going to help his cause, and he hit .266/.313/.452 (91 wRC+) in 60 Triple-A games in 2019. That’s not going to cut it. Estrada needs to really force the issue. Something like .320/.400/.500 in Triple-A may do it.

Thairo is one of those “good at everything but great at nothing” guys and players like that are not all that popular these days. It seems teams prefer a single carrying tool to a wide but just decent skill set. Brett Phillips can’t hit, but he’s on the Rays because he’s a great defender. Billy Hamilton and Jarrod Dyson can’t hit, but they keep getting jobs because they can run. C.J. Cron can hit the ball a mile and do nothing else, and he gets signed every year.

Wade fits into the carrying tool category because he’s a very good defender and he’s very fast, which I guess is two carrying tools. In his limited MLB time, Estrada’s done nothing to stand out. Hasn’t hit or walked, he’s struck out a ton, and is nothing special on the bases or in the field. It’s a similar skill set to Ronald Torreyes, except Torreyes is an elite contact guy who put the ball in play a ton. Estrada’s run a strikeout rate near 30%.

Next year Wade will be arbitration-eligible (and thus more expensive) and Estrada will be out of minor league options, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Yankees cut Wade loose and go with Thairo then. And, a year or two after that, we’ll all wonder when they’ll give the job to Josh Smith or Anthony Volpe or whoever. It is the bench player circle of life. There’s always someone better that the team should try.

Jonathan asks: Do you see Gary or Higgy getting any time at 1st base against lefties until Voit returns?

The Yankees don’t have an obvious platoon partner for Jay Bruce and that’s a problem. He hasn’t hit lefties in years (.212/.268/.398 and 77 wRC+ since 2014) and it’s not like his glove will make up for it. There are a lot of lefties in the AL East too: Rich Hill, Anthony Kay, John Means, Martin Perez, Robbie Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Ryan Yarbrough, Bruce Zimmermann, and those are just the starters. It’s not great.

Kyle Higashioka has never played first base in his professional career. Gary Sanchez has four career innings at first base (three in MLB and one in the minors). Managers hate using both catchers, though with one at first base, he could easily slide back behind the plate in case of an injury. That’s not really an issue. The bigger issue is neither catcher is familiar with the position, and you’d be asking them to play it pretty frequently given all those AL East lefties.

If you’re not expecting much from Bruce at the plate against lefties, it might be best to just go all in on defense, and put DJ LeMahieu at first and Tyler Wade at second. Wade is not going to hit lefties either, though he will catch the ball, and you could always pinch-hit Bruce against a righty reliever later in the game. That seems more likely to me than the Yankees putting Higashioka or Sanchez at first. That’s a little too out there, I think.

Paul asks: With the Yankees looking to use a modified 6 man rotation, at least early on, do you think they will get the best of both worlds with Garcia? Meaning they can get innings at the MLB level but keep sending him down in between intermittent starts and regain a year of control via service time? What would a plan like that have to look like in order to work?

There’s some concern within the game that teams will stop being so obvious with their service time manipulation, and instead sprinkle in demotions throughout the season that accomplish the same result. One 10-day minor league stint in June and another in August rather than 15 days in April. That sorta thing, and that’s essentially what we’re discussing with Deivi Garcia here.

Service time was prorated last year and Garcia accrued 58 days despite spending less than a month on the active roster. He’ll need to spend 73 days in the minors to delay his free agency, or more than two full months. The Yankees would have to do this with Garcia …

• Called up for one day to make a spot start
• Demoted for 10 days (because of the 10-day rule)
• Called up for one day again to make a spot start
• Demoted again for 10 days
• Called up for one day again to make a spot start

… over and over and over for close to half a season. That sounds just awful, and it might be unworkable if Garcia has to step into the rotation full-time. If the Yankees are only using him as a spot sixth starter, sure, it could work. But if there’s an injury (and there are always injuries) and Deivi is needed to start every five days, that plan just isn’t going to work.

Personally, I wouldn’t sweat service time with Garcia, or any pitcher, really. Pitchers break, and who even knows if the benefits of service time manipulation will exist in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement (or the one after that). The championship window is open. If Garcia can help the Yankees win right now, then get him on the roster, and stop worrying about 2027.

Nathan asks: I know mlb doesn’t allow draft picks outside of competitive balance to be traded. With the nfl draft approaching and the trades involved, what would you trade to get to the #1 pick to take Jack Leiter?

The Yankees took Leiter (Al’s kid) in the 20th round out of high school in 2019 knowing he would not sign. He went to Vanderbilt and has been unreal this year: 36 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 13 BB, 59 K. Leiter threw a no-hitter two weeks ago and then threw seven no-hit innings the next time out. He is a draft-eligible sophomore this year and should go within the top three picks, if not No. 1.

Two years ago Craig Edwards ran the numbers and pegged the value of the No. 1 selection at $45.5M. If we use the Baseball Trade Values site to get player values, here are some packages the Yankees could hypothetically send the Pirates in exchange for this year’s No. 1 pick:

• Jasson Dominguez ($38M) and Yoendrys Gomez ($7.5M)
• Deivi Garcia ($29.7M) and Oswald Peraza ($15.8M)
• Clint Frazier ($26.8M) and Clarke Schmidt ($18.7M)

You could also do the “I’ll give you six prospects I don’t like for one very valuable asset” thing, though that’s not very realistic. Leiter is only a year younger than Garcia and Deivi’s already a big leaguer, so I wouldn’t do that second trade. I wouldn’t do the first either because I’d rather have the potential star position player prospect over the potential star pitching prospect given the inherent injury risk with pitchers.

That third trade though? Yeah, I do that. Frazier’s awesome and I would hate to give him up, but the Yankees have outfield depth, and giving up Schmidt is a no-brainer with his ongoing elbow problems. Would the Pirates take that? No way. It’s four years of Frazier (four years that don’t align with Pittsburgh’s competitive window) and a pitcher who keeps breaking down.

I hope MLB allows draft pick trades in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement because it would promote transactions (year-round too, not just at the draft) by giving clubs more tradable assets, and transactions equal entertainment and get the sport in the headlines. I think MLB’s concern that cheap owners will trade all their picks to avoid paying bonuses is overblown. Teams hug picks and prospects too tightly, if anything.

Maybe there are compromises that can be reached to make draft picks tradeable. Teams can’t trade back-to-back first round picks like in the NBA, for example. Only picks in the top 10 rounds (the picks tied to the bonus pool) can be traded. That sorta thing. MLB already has one toe in the pool with tradable Competitive Balance picks. It’s time to dive in and allow full (or close to full) draft pick trading.

Chris asks: No way the All-Star Game happens, right? I know none of us can predict what the country will look like in July, but the League isn't going to send players from all 30 teams into the same facilities and risk a league-wide shutdown, right? Do you have any ideas for other COVID-friendly uses of that 4-day break that the League might utilize?

Oh the All-Star Game is happening. And you know what? It’ll probably be fine given the health and safety protocols, and also three-plus months worth of vaccinations between now and then. The NBA held it’s All-Star Game last month and had no issues, though two players were held out of the game due to close contact, and there are fewer players in the NBA All-Star Game than the MLB All-Star Game.

Canceling the Futures Game wouldn’t be a bad idea. J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) got his hands on the minor league health and safety protocols and they’re similar to MLB’s, though it’s still a lot of kids from a lot of different leagues in one place. The potential for an outbreak is pretty massive. Much greater than with MLB players and their highly regulated 30-team bubble.

In the unlikely event MLB does cancel the All-Star Game, I’d like to see an MLB vs. Prospect Home Run Derby. Four big leaguers and four top prospects, and make them swing away? It’s better than nothing. MLB moved the draft to the All-Star break this year, so the league could really lean into that if there’s no All-Star Game. But yeah, the All-Star Game is happening.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)