Thoughts after the Yankees lose Zack Britton to elbow surgery

Setup man down. (Presswire)

The Spring Training elbow injury monster has come for the Yankees. Fortunately, it’s not a flexor or ligament injury, or anything structural. Zack Britton will have surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow in the coming days, the Yankees announced. He felt soreness after a recent bullpen session and went for an MRI. Bummer. Rather than wait until Friday’s regularly scheduled post, here are my thoughts on Britton’s injury before they go stale.

1. Recovery time. Not gonna lie, I was pretty worried when the Yankees first announced Britton went for an MRI on a sore elbow yesterday. He has elbow trouble in his history (multiple forearm strains in 2017, and forearm strains are often a symptom of ligament issues) and this is the time of year elbows go pop. MRIs on elbows are never good and that is especially true in March.

Furthermore, Britton recently told Dan Martin he contracted COVID-19 in January -- “(It) hit me pretty good. I lost a good amount of weight,” he said -- and was taking it slow this spring. At the time of the report, he hadn’t thrown off a mound in eight days. I thought that was weird. Britton threw live batting practice on Feb. 27th. That indicates he felt good in the not-too-distant past, then had to back off. They weren’t taking it slow from the start. Did the elbow soreness pop up last week? Dunno.

“I appreciate the support from everyone,” Britton wrote yesterday. “We all have daily challenges we have to overcome in order to reach our goals. Just have to keep pushing ahead! I will get this taken care of during the upcoming week and be back as soon as I can.”

The Yankees did not give a timetable for Britton’s return (we should get one when they announce he’s had the surgery) but Gio Urshela had bone chips removed from his elbow in December, and the Yankees announced a three-month recovery. The Padres announced a 6-8 week recovery when Kirby Yates had bone chips taken out of his elbow last August, so I guess that means anywhere from 2-3 months for Britton?

Bone chip surgery is fairly straightforward, and once he finishes his rehab, Britton will essentially have to go through Spring Training to get ready for the season. Fortunately, he’s a reliever, and he doesn’t need to get stretched out. He may only need a few rehab innings (Britton threw nine innings in Spring Training 2019, for reference). I guess that means Britton’s timetable falls in this range:

• Best case: 2 months rehab plus 3-4 weeks preparation for season, return in late May or early June.
• Worst case: 3 months rehab plus 5-6 weeks preparation for season, return in early-to-mid July.

Getting Britton back in late May would be pretty great. Getting him back in June would work too and I think that’s the most likely outcome given what we know right now. Not getting him back until July is possible and would probably involve a setback or a longer than expected rehab. A return in the 3-4 month range sounds about right given other players who’ve had similar surgeries.

This surgery and expected recovery time presumably makes Britton a 60-day injured list candidate, giving the Yankees a little 40-man roster flexibility. Teams can put players on the 60-day injured list now, but the 60-day clock begins on Opening Day, so the earliest Britton could return would be May 30th. How good would his rehab have to go to get him back before that? Pretty great. I think Britton’s going on the 60-day injured list as soon as a 40-man spot is needed.

2. Replacement setup men. Losing Britton obviously hurts. He’s very good and he chews up an awful lot of high leverage innings. The Yankees and Blue Jays are similar teams (great offense, rotation questions behind the no-doubt ace) and the biggest difference is that late in close games, the Yankees drop the hammer with Britton and Aroldis Chapman. Toronto will lean on Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano to get those important outs. The bullpen could be the difference in the AL East race.

The bullpen won’t be as formidable without Britton but the Yankees have enough high leverage options to survive in the interim. Chapman closes and Chad Green, Darren O’Day, and Justin Wilson take over as the setup crew, with Wilson becoming the go-to lefty. Britton was the set eighth inning guy, though I suspect Aaron Boone will look to match up with Wilson a little more. We figure to see him in the seventh or eighth (or sixth?) inning depending how the lineup falls.

There is no such thing as too many good relievers and the Yankees will miss Britton, though I feel pretty good about Green, O’Day, and Wilson stepping into those high leverage roles now. Those guys are qualified to get big outs. I would be surprised if one of them settles in as the full-time eighth inning guy though. I think this will be a mix and match thing unless someone really pitches his way into that job (or out of that job, I guess).

Bone chips aren’t anyone's or anything's fault. They just happen and sometimes they can hide tucked away in elbows and ankles for years before acting up. The priority is making sure Britton will be 100% come October, not rushing him back to pitch in regular season games in May or even June. As much as losing Britton hurts, the Yankees have the horses to get outs in the late innings while he’s sidelined. This is why you build deep bullpens.

“As much as we look to April 1st, that’s one day,” Aaron Boone told Dan Martin yesterday. “The biggest thing is we want to get this diagnosed properly, treated properly, and get Britton in the best place to be at his best.”

3. Open bullpen spots (aka The Rise of Luetge). Alright, so no Britton means the projected Opening Day bullpen now looks like this:

• Closer: LHP Aroldis Chapman
• Setup: RHP Chad Green, RHP Darren O’Day, LHP Justin Wilson
• Middle: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, TBA, TBA
• Long: RHP Luis Cessa

I think Albert Abreu is getting a fourth minor league option. I say this because the Mets announced a series of roster moves yesterday, including optioning righty Franklyn Kilome to Triple-A. Kilome was in the same “does he have a fourth option?” boat as Abreu. That’s a pretty good indication the arbitration panel ruled in favor of granting these players a fourth option. The Yankees haven’t confirmed anything yet, but Kilome was optioned. It happened. He has a fourth option, so yeah.

The Yankees have no shortage of candidates for those two TBA spots. 40-man roster options include Abreu, Mike King, Brooks Kriske, and Nick Nelson. The hot name among the non-roster invitees right now is Lucas Luetge, who’s been spinning the crap out of the ball this spring, and would step into the middle innings lefty role Wilson was going to occupy. Adam Warren has been pretty good this spring as well. Britton’s injury opens the door for Warren ever so slightly.

Joel Sherman reports Luetge can not opt out of his contract until June 1st unless a team in Asia is willing to sign him. The Yankees can send him to the alternate site and continue to evaluate him if they’re not sold on 10-12 Grapefruit League innings. Also, Luetge is out of options, so if they put him on the Opening Day roster, there’s no shuttling him in and out, and you know at least one of those TBA spots is going to be a revolving door. That’s baseball in 2021.

Personally, I say take the best pitchers and don’t sweat roster flexibility. Yeah, being unable to move guys in and out can create headaches at times, but they’re short-term headaches. Take the best players and go from there. Is Luetge among the eight best relievers in the organization right now? I’m not sold yet -- it’s March 10th! do you know how many random relievers look great on March 10th? -- but those strikeout numbers demand attention.

The Yankees don’t have to figure out those two TBA spots now. Opening Day is three weeks and one day away and that’s plenty of time for bullpen candidates to shine or disappoint, and to emerge or play their way to the alternate site (or get hurt). Luetge has made a name for himself early in camp and now the Britton injury creates a clearer path to the Opening Day roster. This is his big chance, and guys like Kriske, Nelson, and Warren aren’t too far behind.

4. External candidates. Given the luxury tax payroll situation (about $6M in breathing room), I don’t think the Yankees will aggressively pursue outside bullpen help. They’ll keep their ear to the ground because every team does that at all times, but they’re not going to react to Britton missing 2-3 months of the regular season with anything big. Besides, the free agent market has been picked clean. The top available relievers (by projected 2021 WAR):

1. RHP David Robertson: +0.5 WAR
2. RHP Trevor Cahill: +0.4 WAR
3. RHP Shane Greene: +0.2 WAR
4. LHP Tony Cingrani: +0.1 WAR
5. Many more at +0.1 WAR or below

The Yankees attended Robertson’s recent showcase and he’s forever cool with me. I have no idea whether he can still be effective at age 36 and with a new elbow ligament, but I’d give him a minor league contract and find out. Greene was pretty good last year and the last few years overall. Kinda weird he’s still unsigned. Maybe his medicals are a mess? Dunno.

It’s difficult to make trades in Spring Training because no one wants to give up pitching depth (or depth in general), though I imagine deep rebuilders like the Orioles (Tanner Scott?) and Pirates (Rich Rodriguez?) and Tigers (Gregory Soto?) are willing to move anyone and everyone right now. Never hurts to ask. It just would surprise me to see the Yankees trade prospects to cover for a fairly short-term injury.

I think the plan is focus on internal options and see who shakes loose near the end of Spring Training, when teams finalize their rosters. Luis Avilan, Wade Davis, T.J. McFarland, and Oliver Perez are among the veteran relievers on minor league deals who can opt out in two weeks and could interest the Yankees. We’ll see. I wouldn’t expect the Yankees to rush into the free agent or trade market though. It’s not their style to project desperation and react to an injury with a quick move.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)