January 5th, 2021: Hot Stove, 2016 Trade Deadline, Hughes

Two important dates are coming up. Well, one date with two events, really. Next Friday is the start of the 2021 international signing period and also the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures. I’m planning previews of both events next week, so I’m just putting them on your radar now. Let’s get to today’s thoughts.

1. Hot stove action. The holidays are over and Spring Training is six weeks away. The hot stove should -- should -- begin to heat up soon. Here are the latest rumblings and what they mean for the Yankees.

Sugano’s signing window closing soon

Tomoyuki Sugano’s 30-day negotiating window ends at 5pm ET this Thursday and he arrived in the United States over the weekend, reports Jon Morosi. Sugano has to take his physical and sign his contract before the deadline, so, realistically, he has to have a deal in place either today or tomorrow so they can work through the red tape. Here’s what I wrote about Sugano a few weeks ago.

The Yomiuri Giants, Sugano’s former team in Japan, have offered him a four-year contract with an opt out after each season, according to Joel Sherman and Ken Rosenthal, though they say MLB teams have offered more guaranteed money. Jim Allen passes along word that Sugano has expressed concern about playing in the United States during the pandemic, which a) is understandable, and b) could be posturing.

The Yankees have not been connected to Sugano at all this offseason (the Blue Jays, Giants, Mets, and Red Sox are said to be in the mix), which isn’t terribly surprising given their “we’re not doing anything until DJ LeMahieu signs” strategy. I’m not optimistic the Yankees are laying in the weeds and ready to pounce this week. It seems Sugano is headed elsewhere.

Free agency doesn’t have much high-end starting pitching to offer and Sugano struck me as an intriguing alternative to a second tier guy like Jake Odorizzi, or reclamation projects like Corey Kluber and James Paxton. At some point the Yankees will get around to adding to their rotation, but they’ve now passed on a Yu Darvish salary dump and appear willing to let Sugano go elsewhere. Options are dwindling.

Dodgers after LeMahieu?

For what it’s worth, Morosi and Sherman report the Dodgers are in the mix for LeMahieu. Los Angeles could put LeMahieu at third base and let Justin Turner walk, or put him at second base and trade/stash Gavin Lux, or just use him as a super utility guy who moves around. It’s really easy to get LeMahieu into the lineup, no matter how stacked.

I buy the Dodgers having interest in LeMahieu though I’m not sure how serious they are about signing him. They’re already brushing up against the $210M luxury tax threshold, so either they would have to go over the threshold to sign him, or move other players to clear room (Joe Kelly? Max Muncy?). It’s doable. It would just take a little creativity.

Also, Andrew Friedman’s M.O. is to pursue elite players, but only if he can get them at his price (like Mookie Betts). They were in on Giancarlo Stanton but wanted the Marlins to take on more money than they did in the trade with the Yankees. They were in on Bryce Harper but only on a short-term deal. They were in on Gerrit Cole too, but wanted him to accept huge deferrals (like Mookie’s deal). Rather than adjust their offer, the Dodgers walked away.

Their interest in LeMahieu may be similar. Take a short-term deal or something with deferrals because that fits out payroll best, or we’ll walk away and stick with the World Series winning roster we already have. LeMahieu’s camp will happily use the Dodgers as leverage in contract talks. I’m a little skeptical they are a serious threat at this point, though I fully acknowledge it would be silly to brush them aside completely.

My hunch is the Yankees have the best offer on the table and they know it, and LeMahieu is looking around for a team willing to make a similar offer so he can force the Yankees to up the ante. Maybe I’m completely misreading things, but that’s what it feels like. The Yankees have made it pretty clear retaining LeMahieu is their top priority, and when the Yankees say a free agent is a top priority, they tend to get their man. It’s only a matter of time, I think.

Yankees interested in Puig

Here’s a fun one. The Yankees are among the teams with interest in Yasiel Puig, reports Mark Feinsand. The Braves signed Puig to a one-year deal during Summer Camp last year, but he tested positive for COVID-19 soon thereafter and backed out of the deal. Puig went 3-for-13 (.231) with seven walks and six strikeouts as Gary Sanchez’s and Miguel Andujar’s teammate with Toros del Este in the Dominican Winter League these last few weeks.

In 2019, his last full season, the just turned 30-year-old Puig authored a .267/.327/.458 (101 wRC+) batting line with 24 home runs for the Reds and Cleveland. It’s been a long time since he played as well as he did as a rookie with the Dodgers. He’s been closer to a +1.5 WAR player and a league average-ish hitter the last few years. Puig is fun though, and I am pro-fun.

I hoped the Yankees would sign Puig last spring, after it became clear Aaron Judge’s rib fracture would sideline him a while -- Judge was not cleared to return until right before Summer Camp, remember -- and after Stanton strained his calf in camp. Signing Puig made a lot of sense then (before the shutdown). Now? Eh. The Yankees aren’t exactly short on right-handed hitting outfielders.

I don’t think Puig is in minor league contract territory yet and, fair or not, he has a reputation for being a distraction, and the Yankees go to great lengths to avoid players with a reputation for being clubhouse headaches. I don’t think their interest is all that serious. It’s probably due diligence, or Puig’s agent is trying to use the Yankees as leverage (or both).

If Puig is willing to take a minor league contract, by all means, bring him in. Minor league deals are zero risk. But unless the plan is to trade Clint Frazier for pitching, I don’t see how Puig fits the Yankees right now. There are better ways to use their resources than on another righty hitting outfielder. (Also, if the Yankees do trade Clint for pitching, they’d probably just re-sign Brett Gardner to play left field.)

Tanaka says he’ll consider all offers

Quick follow-up to last week’s news that Masahiro Tanaka may return to Japan if he’s unable to work out a contract with the Yankees: Jason Coskrey passed along a report in which Tanaka said he will consider all offers, not only those from the Yankees or the Rakuten Golden Eagles, his former team in Japan. He kinda has to say that, right? Even if only to create some leverage against the Yankees. I’m not sure Tanaka wants to bounce from MLB team to MLB team (who does?), but that doesn’t mean he wants to take a big discount to stay in New York either.

Yankees sign Brito

The Yankees have signed outfielder Socrates Brito to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, reports Jon Heyman. Brito is the fifth non-roster player the Yankees have signed this offseason, joining righties Matt Bowman and Adam Warren, utility man Andrew Velazquez, and lefty Nestor Cortes (Bowman will miss 2021 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery).

Brito, 28, started last season at the Pirates alternate site before opting out in September. He had some prospect shine with the Diamondbacks back in the day -- Baseball America ranked him as a top 10 prospect in their system in 2016 and 2017 -- and he went 10-for-33 (.303) with three doubles during his MLB debut in 2015. The four seasons since:

• 2016-19 in MLB: .155/.196/.282 (19 wRC+) in 184 plate appearances
• 2016-19 in Triple-A: .295/.343/.489 (113 wRC+) in 1,557 plate appearances

Brito’s tendency to swing at everything has been his undoing at the MLB level. The Yankees need center field depth behind Aaron Hicks and Mike Tauchman though, and Brito can play a legitimate center field, so that’s his appeal. He’s also a speedy guy who can steal the occasional base, so I guess that gives him September pinch-running specialist potential as well.

The Yankees have turned so many seemingly inconsequential pickups into above-average contributors (Gio Urshela, Luke Voit, etc.) in recent years that we can’t simply dismiss Brito as a depth pickup. Maybe they have a plan to help him unlock more at the plate. For the time being, he is third on the center field depth chart. We’ll see what gets said about him in Spring Training.

2. 2016 trade deadline review. Back in 2017, the current Yankees core as we know it emerged and helped the Yankees make the jump from a team in “transition” (Brian Cashman’s word) to a legitimate contender. Aaron Judge had an MVP caliber rookie year, Luis Severino pitched like an ace, Gary Sanchez was an All-Star in his first full season, Jordan Montgomery and Chad Green assumed important roles, so on so forth.

The seeds of that 2017 breakout were first planted in 2015, when Severino (and Greg Bird) was called up in the second half. Those efforts continued in 2016, when Sanchez arrived for good and Judge debuted. There was also the trade deadline. For the first time in nearly three decades, the Yankees sold at the 2016 deadline and dealt veterans for prospects. All told, they traded five players and received 14.

The fingerprints of the 2016 trade deadline were all over the 2020 Yankees and that will again be the case in 2021. Now that we’re more than four years removed from the 2016 deadline, we can look back and better evaluate those deals, and their impact on the present. Let’s go back in time and review one of the most important periods in recent Yankees history, shall we?

Background

The Yankees went 87-75 in 2015 and crashed hard down the stretch, going 26-29 with a -4 run differential in their final 55 regular season games. Their postseason exit was swift thanks to the much younger and much better Astros, and the winner-take-all Wild Card Game. The Yankees were old, especially on the position player side, and trending toward bad.

Cashman initiated the position player youth movement during the 2014-15 offseason with the Didi Gregorius trade. He continued it during the 2015-16 offseason with the Aaron Hicks trade and the Starlin Castro trade, which cost the Yankees their backup catcher (John Ryan Murphy) and a solid bullpen arm (Adam Warren). In December, the Yankees bought super low on Aroldis Chapman because of his ongoing domestic violence investigation.

Despite those moves, the 2016 Yankees weren’t very good. They lost 18 of their first 29 games and were 44-44 with a -34 run differential at the All-Star break. From July 29th to 31st, the Yankees were swept in three games by the last place Rays. “A true playoff contender, you know, not a playoff pretender, wouldn't do that,” Cashman later told Andrew Marchand.

The three-game sweep dropped the Yankees to 52-52 on the morning of the trade deadline. They were in fourth place and seven games out in the AL East, and 5.5 games behind the second Wild Card spot with four teams ahead of them. Cashman went to ownership and recommended they sell at the deadline, and Hal Steinbrenner agreed.

“I personally appreciate that (Hal) allowed me to do what we did. That is allowing me to get players that can bring a championship back to this club sooner than later … (We’ve had) a hell of a run. There’s no shame in anything we’ve tried to address today,” Cashman told Pete Caldera after the deadline. The sweep in Tampa put the wheels in motion.

July 25th: Aroldis Chapman trade

Full trade (RAB post): LHP Aroldis Chapman for OF Rashad Crawford, OF Billy McKinney, IF Gleyber Torres, RHP Adam Warren

Truth be told, the deadline sell-off started a few days before the sweep to the Rays. Chapman was a pending free agent and excellent -- he allowed seven earned runs with 44 strikeouts in 31.1 innings as a Yankee in 2016 -- but the Yankees were going nowhere fast, and even though he was a rental, he had significant trade value. The Yankees gave up little to get Chapman and had a chance to flip him for a lot. It was a no-brainer. It had to be done.

“This is an easy call and this was the right call," Cashman told Bryan Hoch after the trade. "Easy because we traded from an area of strength, and we are excited about the players that we received for someone that obviously was only under control for two more months."

Chapman went to the Cubs and helped them win their first World Series title in 108 years. He allowed four runs with 46 strikeouts in 26.2 regular season innings with Chicago, then threw another 15.2 innings during their postseason run. For comparison’s sake, Mariano Rivera’s largest single-postseason workload was 16 innings done three times (2001, 2003, 2009).

The Yankees re-signed Chapman that offseason, though that shouldn’t factor into how we evaluate the trade. That’s a separate transaction independent of the trade. The Yankees could have just as easily kept him and re-signed him. In fact, they tried. Billy Witz reports Steinbrenner only agreed to the trade after Chapman declined an extension. Imagine if Chapman signed an extension in 2016? Oy vey. Now for the four players the Yankees received.

Torres. Although he was only 19, Torres was the centerpiece of the trade. He was hitting .275/.359/.433 (122 wRC+) in High-A at the time and Baseball America ranked him the No. 27 prospect in the game in their 2016 midseason top 100 update. Chicago’s infield depth (Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell) made Torres expendable.

Of course, Torres was not Cashman’s first choice. As Joel Sherman recently noted, the Yankees wanted Kyle Schwarber, who was out with a torn ACL at the time, and only settled on Gleyber when the Cubs wouldn’t relent. They had their pick of Torres, Eloy Jimenez, and Ian Happ, and chose Torres. They chose wisely, I’d say (not that Eloy and Happ are bad players).

Gleyber became New York’s No. 1 prospect after blowing the doors off the Arizona Fall League that year (.403/.513/.645), and he was arguably the top prospect in baseball a year later. I know the Yankees kicked around the idea of calling Torres up to play third base in the second half of 2017, but his Tommy John surgery put an end to that. (He hurt his elbow on June 17th. The Todd Frazier trade went down on July 19th.)

Torres arrived early in 2018 and, in 309 career MLB games, he’s a .271/.340/.493 (121 wRC+) hitter with two All-Star Game selections and a handful of MVP votes. Gleyber turned only 24 last month and I think he’s the most important player in the organization. Getting him alone for Chapman would’ve been a slam dunk given that the going rate for an elite rental reliever at the time was one top 50 prospect. The rest of the package was gravy.

Warren. From 2013-15, Warren threw 287 innings with a 3.23 ERA (3.59 FIP) for the Yankees. For whatever reason, it just never worked for him in Chicago. Warren had a 5.91 ERA (5.83 FIP) in 35 innings with the Cubs in 2016, after being acquired in the Castro trade. He was in Triple-A at the time of the Chapman trade, in fact. The Yankees recalled him immediately.

“Getting Adam Warren to come back into the fold was of extreme interest," Cashman told Hoch. "He was a player that was very difficult for us to trade this winter."

Warren was very good with the Yankees in 2016 (3.26 ERA and 4.30 FIP), great in 2017 (2.35 ERA and 3.02 FIP), and very good again in 2018 (2.70 ERA And 3.29 FIP) before being traded to the Mariners for international bonus money at the 2018 deadline. In his second stint as a Yankee, Warren put up +2.4 WAR in 117.1 innings. His career splits will always amuse me:

• Warren as a Yankee: 3.18 ERA (3.61 FIP)
• Warren as a Not Yankee: 5.17 ERA (5.94 FIP)

The Yankees did not want to completely throw in the towel and tank at the 2016 deadline and getting Warren back was part of their efforts to remain competitive. And it worked. He wasn’t Chapman, but he was an above-average reliever and helped the Yankees remain in the Wild Card race. Then he gave them 2017 and 2018 on top of that. Warren is back with the Yankees again now.

(The international bonus money acquired in the Warren trade with the Mariners was used to sign Cuban shortstop Alex Vargas, my preseason No. 23 prospect.)

McKinney. McKinney was a better known prospect than Torres at the time of the trade. He’s a former first rounder (24th overall in 2013) who was part of the trade that sent Jeff Samardzija to the Athletics in July 2014. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked McKinney the No. 83 prospect in the game going into 2015, but a knee injury ended his 2015 season early, and, at age 21, he was hitting .252/.355/.322 (101 wRC+) in Double-A at the time of the trade.

The Yankees bought low and hoped McKinney would return to his pre-2016 form as he got further away from the knee injury, and they looked smart in 2017. He hit .277/.338/.483 (124 wRC+) between Double-A and Triple-A that year, and made his MLB debut in April 2018. Here’s his first MLB hit. McKinney hurt his shoulder crashing into the outfield wall the next day, spent much of the summer in Triple-A, then was included in the J.A. Happ trade at the deadline.

In 122 games with the Blue Jays from 2018-20, McKinney hit .230/.291/.439 (92 wRC+) as an up-and-down depth outfielder. He was claimed off waivers by the Brewers this past September. The Yankees were plenty deep in outfielders come the 2018 trade deadline, so they used McKinney to address their rotation. He provided value as a trade chip.

Crawford. The clear fourth piece in the trade. Crawford, then 22, was hitting .255/.327/.386 (99 wRC+) in High-A at the time and was not on any top prospect lists. Crawford was an athleticism and raw tools guy the Yankees gambled on, and it didn’t work out. He hit .240/.308/.330 (84 wRC+) in 331 games after the trade, most at Double-A, and he became a minor league free agent last offseason. Crawford has been out of baseball since.

All told, the Yankees turned two months of Chapman into a star infielder, a little more than 100 above-average relief innings, and a good trade chip. Crawford was the only total bust and he was a lottery ticket as the fourth piece in the deal. Between what Torres is doing now and what Chapman helped the Cubs accomplish in 2016, this is going to go down as the mother of all win-win trades.

"I think the total package was something that we targeted and strived to get, and if we got it, we would move toward a recommendation," Cashman told Sam Blum. "I made the recommendation to ownership that they thought on, and they gave the sign of the cross to it."

July 31st: Andrew Miller trade

Full trade (RAB post): LHP Andrew Miller for RHP J.P. Feyereisen, OF Clint Frazier, RHP Ben Heller, OF Justus Sheffield

The Yankees controlled the bullpen market at the 2016 trade deadline. In Chapman and Miller, they had two of the five or six best relievers in the game to peddle to contenders. Like the Cubs, Cleveland was desperate to end a long World Series drought, and they were willing to pay big to get the lockdown reliever they felt they needed. They weren’t always an obvious fit though.

"We knew we had the market cornered on high-end relievers, especially high-end left-handed relievers, with Chapman and Miller," Cashman told Jon Schwartz in Sept. 2016. "The strategy would be Chapman first, which would create more of a desperate vacuum into Miller. We had some internal predictions as to how it would play out. If you had asked me before all was said and done, I would have said that Chapman would go to Washington and Miller would go to the Cubs."

Unlike Chapman, Miller was not a rental. He was under control through 2018 at an affordable rate, making him a multi-year addition. As a result, the asking price was higher. The Yankees wanted two top prospects to part with Miller. “We wanted a firstborn for Chapman. We needed two twin firstborns for Miller,” Cashman told Marchand.

Cleveland had the second best record in baseball behind the Cubs on the morning of the trade deadline, and the American League landscape was hardly imposing (the Rangers and Orioles had the second and third best records in the league at the time), so they went all-in. They sent the Yankees four prospects in exchange for a great reliever and a great clubhouse guy.

“There is excitement about coming to terms for a guy that we targeted. At the same time, there was a pit in your stomach because we knew we were trading really good players,” Cleveland president Chris Antonetti told Marchand. “We felt a unique circumstance with Andrew. With all the elements he brought to the table, it was worth paying a very steep price.”

Miller had a 1.77 ERA with 177 strikeouts in 107 innings as a Yankee. He and Corey Kluber more or less carried Cleveland to Game 7 of the World Series -- Miller threw 19.1 innings in 10 appearances that October -- though they lost to Chapman’s Cubs. Miller had a great 2017 with Cleveland, then battled injuries and ineffectiveness in 2018. He signed with the Cardinals that offseason. Now for the four players the Yankees received.

Frazier. Similar to Torres in the Chapman trade, Frazier was the clear headliner in the Miller trade. He was the No. 5 overall pick in the 2013 draft and Baseball America ranked him the No. 21 prospect in the game in their midseason top 100 update a few weeks earlier. The 21-year-old was hitting .275/.351/.465 (128 wRC+) between Double-A and Triple-A at the time.

"Frazier has an electric bat," Cashman famously told Buster Olney after the trade (audio link). "His bat speed is already legendary. He's got all the tools. He can run, he can hit, he can hit with power, he can play all three outfield positions. A very exciting, high-energy guy that shows up for the National Anthem in a dirty uniform."

Clint made his MLB debut in July 2017 and struggled in limited playing time that season, though he’s been very good (.267/.351/.485 and 123 wRC+) in a depth role the last three years. Injuries and a stacked outfield (plus the Giancarlo Stanton addition) meant Frazier, who turned 26 this past September, has had to bide time in Triple-A more often than not.

There have been some off-the-field headaches with Frazier. The Yankees needlessly made a spectacle of cutting his hair, there was a made up story that he requested Mickey Mantle’s No. 7, and he ducked the media after one particularly bad game in 2019. Skipping out on the media is a big deal within clubhouses -- players want their teammates to be accountable -- and there have been no issues since. Clint got a good talking to, I reckon.

More than four years after the trade, Frazier is finally in position to hold down a full-time outfield spot in 2021. He was great in limited action last season (.267/.394/.511 and 149 wRC+) and it’s time to get this show on the road. He’s proven all he needs to prove in Triple-A and he’s shown more than enough in the big leagues to get an extended look. It’s taken longer than I think we all expected when the trade went down, but Clint’s time has finally arrived.

Sheffield. In their midseason top 100 update Baseball America ranked Sheffield the No. 69 prospect in the game, and he owned a 3.59 ERA (3.79 FIP) in 95.1 High-A innings as a 20-year-old at the time of the trade. Torres looked like a potential All-Star infielder, Frazier a potential All-Star outfielder, and Sheffield a potential All-Star starter.

"Anybody who's seen him toe the rubber every five days, this is a high-electric, left-handed arm that was also a former No. 1 pick just like Frazier," Cashman told ESPN. "Gets up to 95 with a three-pitch mix. He is a competitor on that mound."

Statistically, Sheffield’s minor league stint with the Yankees was better than I remember. He had a 2.78 ERA (3.64 FIP) in 214 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A from 2017-18. There was a shoulder injury mixed in there, and Sheffield wowed during his 2017 stint in the Arizona Fall League. He was a consensus top 50 prospect in 2017 and 2018.

We spent much of 2018 wondering when the Yankees would summon Sheffield to address their pitching needs, but it never happened. At least not until after the Triple-A postseason. He came up in September and made three forgettable low-leverage relief appearances (three runs in 2.2 innings). I remember writing at RAB that Sheffield seemed to be in the Jesus Montero/Rob Refsnyder bucket in that the Yankees didn’t like him as much as they let on publicly.

By time 2019 rolled around, the Yankees were firmly established as a World Series contender, and rather than wait for Sheffield to find his way at the MLB level, they cashed him in as a trade chip. He was the headliner in the James Paxton trade with the Mariners and Paxton is more or less Sheffield’s best case scenario as a high-strikeout lefty. The Yankees moved up the timeframe on Sheffield’s potential, essentially.

Paxton was very good in 2019 and the Yankees’ No. 1 starter in the postseason. He was hurt and ineffective in 2020, and is now a free agent. The trade didn’t work out as hoped because of last year. Sheffield spent most of 2019 in the minors and most of 2020 in Seattle’s rotation, where he had a 3.58 ERA (3.17 FIP) in 58.1 innings. He’s likely due for some home run regression (0.33 HR/9 and 4.4% HR/FB), but he’s starting to look like a viable MLB starter.

The logic behind the trade was sound -- trade a prospect for a high-end talent who gave the Yankees a better chance to win right now, while this core is together and affordable (I wish the Yankees would make more trades like this, frankly) -- though Paxton’s injuries threw a wrench into things. The Yankees landed Sheffield in the Miller trade, developed him into an MLB player, then flipped him for a high-end starter. I think we all would’ve signed up for that in 2016.

"We gave up two years of control," Cashman told Schwartz after the trade. "If Miller stays what he is for the next two years, without injury and stuff, obviously those guys need to live up to and hit their ceilings to justify the decision I made."

Feyereisen and Heller. It makes sense to lump these two together because they are both righty relievers who were relievers at the time of the trade. They weren’t starters who wound up in the bullpen. Heller, then 24, had a 1.73 ERA (2.83 FIP) in 41.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Baseball America labeled him a rising prospect in their midseason update.

Heller made his MLB debut in Sept. 2016 and didn’t allow a run in seven of his 10 appearances. He went up and down in 2017, hurt his elbow and had Tommy John surgery in 2018, then went up and down again in 2019 and 2020. In 31.1 big league innings, he’s allowed only nine runs with 30 strikeouts, though the walks (15) and homers (six) are an eyesore. Heller remains on the 40-man roster and figures to ride the shuttle again in 2021.

Feyereisen was 23 at the time of the trade and he had a 2.23 ERA (3.06 FIP) in 40.1 Double-A innings. He spent parts of the next three seasons with Triple-A Scranton and spun his wheels, so much so that he was twice passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. Feyereisen was traded to the Brewers in Sept. 2019 for rookie ball prospect Brenny Escanio and international bonus money. He allowed six runs in 9.1 innings with Milwaukee in 2020.

The impact of the Miller trade return is less clear than that of the Chapman trade return only because Frazier has not yet been given an everyday lineup spot the way Torres has. He looks like an everyday outfielder, potentially a very good one, but we don’t know that for certain yet. The trade also netted the Yankees a very good trade chip and an up and down reliever.

"We needed to have an extreme return for us to complete and finalize," Cashman told Blum after the trade. "We're very excited by what we got. But this is very difficult. A lot of tough discussions internally over a player that was very difficult to move."

July 31st: Tyler Clippard trade

Full trade (RAB post): RHP Vicente Campos for RHP Tyler Clippard

The Yankees were in sell mode but they weren’t ready to give up on the 2016 season. Warren replaced Chapman in the bullpen and, to replace Miller, Cashman brought in Clippard a few hours later. The former Yankee was stuck on what would eventually be a 93-loss Diamondbacks team. Arizona wanted to shed the $8.2M remaining on Clippard’s contract through 2017.

“I don't ever wave a white flag. This organization never waves a white flag,” then-manager Joe Girardi told Blum after the Clippard trade.

Clippard and Warren were downgrades from Chapman and Miller, no doubt, but they were competent MLB relievers. They helped the Yankees win games down the stretch and they also allowed them to remain patient with younger relievers like Heller and Jonathan Holder, who otherwise would have assumed a lot of responsibility in a hurry.

Following the trade Clippard allowed seven earned runs with 26 strikeouts in 25.1 innings. The next year didn’t go so well. He allowed 21 runs in 36.1 innings, then was sent to the White Sox to offset salary in the trade that brought Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle, and David Robertson to the Bronx. Clippard had a 3.94 ERA (4.61 FIP) in 61.2 innings in his second stint as a Yankee.

Campos, 24 at the time, was the other guy in the Jesus Montero/Michael Pineda trade. He’d been hurt and on and off the 40-man roster from 2012-15, though he’d managed to stay healthy enough to throw 121 innings with a 3.20 ERA (3.07 FIP) at Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. It’s almost like the Yankees said, “holy crap he stayed healthy for four months? quick, trade him!”

The D’Backs called Campos up that September and he allowed three runs (two earned) in a 5.2-inning relief appearance. That is still his only MLB appearance. He got hurt soon thereafter, went to the Angels on waivers that November, signed with the Pirates as a minor league free agent in 2019, then was released at midseason. Campos is currently playing winter ball but has not signed with an MLB team since Pittsburgh cut him loose in June 2019.

This is definitely the 2016 deadline trade no one cares about. Campos’ prospect stock was fading and Arizona was happy to take him on to shed Clippard’s contract. Clippard helped the Yankees stay in the race longer than they had any business staying in the race that year, then his 2017 was a mess. He at least provided some value through the White Sox trade.

Aug. 1st: Carlos Beltran trade

Full trade (RAB post): OF Carlos Beltran and money to pay the remainder of his salary for RHP Nick Green, RHP Erik Swanson, RHP Dillon Tate

Fun fact: The 2016 trade deadline was on Aug. 1st, not July 31st. July 31st fell on a Sunday that year and MLB decided to push the deadline back one day because the 4pm ET deadline would have conflicted with so many games. Monday’s schedule was lighter and included no day games, making deadline logistics easier for everyone.

Once Chapman and Miller were gone, it only made sense to trade Beltran, an impending free agent who was not going to get the qualifying offer after the season. He was the Yankees’ best hitter that year (.304/.344/.546 and 134 wRC+) and they even agreed to pay the remainder of his $15M salary to maximize the return.

“We didn't really play consistent baseball. We didn't really give management a reason to keep us together,” Beltran told Hoch and Josh Needelman after the trade.

The Rangers were all over the place that season -- they went 15-14 in their first 29 games, 36-13 in their next 49 games, then 11-17 in their next 28 games leading into the deadline -- and badly needed a veteran hitter. It was a perfect match. Beltran went to Texas and was good rather than great (100 wRC+ in 52 games), though he helped them to the AL West title. The Rangers were swept by the Blue Jays in the ALDS. They gave up three pitching prospects for the privilege.

Tate. The Rangers made Tate the No. 4 overall pick in the 2015 draft and in just 14 months, his prospect stock had taken a hit. He had a 5.12 ERA (4.43 FIP) in 65 Low-A innings prior to the trade and his velocity had fluctuated wildly. It’s not often you can acquire a top five pick a little more than one year after the draft though, so the Yankees pounced.

"Listen, for a two-month rental, to pull off a No. 4 pick in the draft -- you heard me call him an asset in distress before -- in his case, distress is just performance at a very early part of his pro career,” Cashman told Brendan Kuty after the trade.

The Yankees had a plan to get Tate back on track. Specifically, they undid the mechanical changes the Rangers implemented, and told him to go back to his college delivery, which was a bit unconventional. Tate regained his velocity and had a 3.09 ERA (3.82 FIP) in 183.2 minor league innings the next two calendar years.

The problem? He wasn’t missing bats. Tate had a 20.0% strikeout rate in those 183.2 innings, which is decidedly meh for a top pitching prospect yet to pitch above Double-A. Rather than continue to try to unlock his potential, the Yankees sent the 23-year-old Tate to the Orioles in the Zack Britton trade at the 2018 deadline. He went from headlining a trade for a rental outfielder to headlining a trade for a rental reliever, which seems like a bad trend, but Britton is no ordinary reliever.

The Orioles moved Tate to the bullpen in 2019 and he made his MLB later that year, allowing 15 runs in 21 innings. He allowed another seven runs in 16.2 innings in 2020. It’s unlikely Tate will ever live up to the expectations that come with being the No. 4 overall pick, but maybe he can still carve out a career in relief. The Yankees, understandably, didn’t want to wait for him to figure it out. He was an obvious trade candidate heading into 2018, I thought.

Swanson. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees acquired three lottery ticket arms in the Beltran trade. Swanson, 22 at the time, had a 3.43 ERA (3.25 FIP) in 81.1 High-A innings that year, and he had his big coming out party with Double-A Trenton in 2018 (0.42 ERA and 1.88 FIP in 42.2 innings). His numbers were much more normal following a midseason promotion to Triple-A Scranton (3.86 ERA and 3.64 FIP in 72.1 innings).

Swanson was Rule 5 Draft eligible following the 2018 season and the Yankees weren’t going to add him to the 40-man roster, so they traded him. He went to the Mariners with Sheffield in the Paxton trade. Classic case of “he’s not good enough for the Yankees but he’s good enough for the Mariners.” Swanson made his MLB debut in 2019 and has allowed 53 runs in 65.2 innings. Seattle gave him eight starts in 2019 before shifting him into the bullpen full-time.

Green. The Yankees had a history with Green. They selected him out of high school in the 35th round of the 2013 draft but didn’t sign him. The Rangers selected him in the seventh round out of his Iowa junior college the next year. Green had a 4.98 ERA (3.17 FIP) in 34.1 Low-A innings at the time of the trade and the Yankees were drawn to his sinker (he led the minors with a 66.4% ground ball rate in 2018).

The Diamondbacks gave Green a look as a Rule 5 Draft in Spring Training 2019, it didn’t work out, and he returned to the Yankees at the end of camp. His 2019 season was ugly (6.67 ERA and 3.76 FIP at mostly Double-A) and he spent 2020 at home. Green is still with the Yankees but isn’t much of a prospect anymore. 

All things considered, Beltran’s market was limited to American League contenders given his defensive shortcomings, and the qualifying offer was not a viable backup plan, so I think getting two tradeable prospects constitutes a good return. Beltran was still a good hitter, though the Yankees didn't have a ton of leverage.

Aug. 1st: Ivan Nova trade

Full trade (RAB post): RHP Ivan Nova for two players to be named later (OF Tito Polo and LHP Stephen Tarpley named on Aug. 30th (RAB post))

The Yankees wrapped up their deadline business with a last minute trade. There was a rush to get the Nova deal into the league office before the 4pm ET deadline -- “There's some screaming going on. ‘Get it done!'” Cashman told Schwartz -- and it was a “we’ll take whatever we can get” situation. Nova was an impending free agent and pitching poorly (4.99 ERA and 4.98 FIP in 191.1 innings since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2015), so his trade value wasn’t high.

Getting players to be named bought the Yankees time. The Yankees and Pirates agreed to a four-player pool and the Yankees would spend the next few weeks scouting the players, then make their decision. They picked Tarpley and Polo a month later. MLB.com ranked Tarpley the No. 17 prospect and Polo the No. 27 prospect in Pittsburgh’s system at the time.

“We’re getting two prospects from Pittsburgh for Nova, so we have to pick from a list of players and evaluate those the remaining two months (of the season),” Cashman told Olney after the initial trade (audio link). “We’ll be bouncing throughout lower levels of the Pirates’ system as we make that selection and add two more pieces that are legitimate prospects.”

Nova pitched well with the Pirates after the trade (3.06 ERA and 2.62 FIP in 64.1 innings), re-signed with them as a free agent, then went back to being the same old Ivan Nova from 2017-20. He allowed 18 runs in 19 innings with the Tigers last year before going down with a triceps injury, and is now a free agent. Tarpley and Polo didn’t amount to much.

Tarpley. The then-23-year-old Tarpley had a 4.32 ERA (3.92 FIP) in 100 High-A innings before the trade. He was a third round pick in 2013, so there was some prospect pedigree there, though his performance was all over the place. The Yankees helped Tarpley add a sinker in 2018 and it got him to the big leagues in September. He pitched so well (three runs and 13 strikeouts in nine innings) that he was on the ALDS roster that year.

2019 did not go nearly as well for Tarpley, who allowed 20 runs in 24.2 big league innings with a 36.2% ground ball rate. A ground ball pitcher who doesn’t get ground balls is in for a world of hurt. The Yankees dropped Tarpley from the 40-man roster when Brett Gardner re-signed last January, then traded him to the Marlins for a minor league infielder James Nelson. Tarpley allowed 12 runs in 11 innings with Miami last year and was designated for assignment this past weekend (seeing his name on MLBTR inspired this post).

Polo. Polo, 22 at the time, was hitting .289/.360/.451 (136 wRC+) in over 100 games between Low-A and High-A when the trade went down. His stint with the Yankees lasted less than a year. Polo hit .307/.369/.455 (139 wRC+) in 74 minor league games in 2017, then was included in the Todd Frazier trade with the White Sox, essentially as the fourth piece. After a year and a half with Chicago, he signed with the Mariners as a minor league free agent, and he finished 2019 in the Mexican League. He did not play anywhere in 2020.

Tarpley found his way on to the postseason roster one year and Polo managed to be part of an important trade, so I guess it’s unfair to say they didn’t amount to much. The Yankees had little use for Nova, who wasn’t pitching well and wasn’t going to be re-signed, so getting something for him was better than nothing. Tarpley and Polo helped the Yankees down the road, briefly in Tarpley’s case and indirectly in Polo’s.

Final tally

Fourteen players in, five players out, and still so much left to play out in the future. Here’s what the Yankees acquired at the 2016 trade deadline. More accurately, here’s what they’ve acquired to date, because some of these transaction trees are still going.

• Six years of control of Torres (+6.6 WAR with four years to go)
• Six years of control of Frazier (+1.5 WAR with four years to go)
• Six years of control of Heller (+0.8 WAR with three years to go)
• 117.1 innings of Warren (+2.4 WAR)
• 61.2 innings of Clippard (-0.1 WAR)
• 33.2 innings of Tarpley (-0.3 WAR)
• Tate’s contributions via Britton (+0.3 WAR in 2018)
• Three games of Sheffield plus his and Swanson's contributions via Paxton (+2.1 WAR as a Yankee)
• Two games of McKinney plus his contributions via Happ (+1.9 WAR in 2018)
• Clippard’s and Polo’s contributions via Frazier, Kahnle, and Robertson (+4.4 WAR as Yankees combined)
• Infield prospect Alex Vargas via international bonus money from Warren trade
• Infield prospect Brenny Escanio and international bonus money via Feyereisen trade
• Infield prospect James Nelson via Tarpley trade
• One total bust (Crawford) and one likely bust (Green)

(UPDATE: I accidentally omitted the Sheffield/Swanson/Paxton bullet point the first time around. The post has been updated. My bad.)

Beltran, Chapman, and Nova gave their teams a combined +3.7 WAR after the trades in 2016 and Miller put up +4.6 WAR during the remainder of his contract. We can’t simply compare the WAR in vs. WAR out though, because what do you do with Britton and Happ and the White Sox guys? Britton may not have signed with the Yankees two years ago had he not spent time with the team as a rental in 2018. Is that credited to Tate and the 2016 deadline? What about Happ?

Also, I think Chapman’s and Miller’s contributions to the Cubs and Cleveland transcend WAR. You can’t quantify what the World Series win meant to Cubs fans and the organization, ditto a pennant to Cleveland and their fans. Chapman did some serious heavy lifting for the Cubs that October. Take him away and I don’t think they win the World Series. Hell, they barely won the World Series with him. Gleyber is awesome, but the Cubs would make that trade again no questions asked.

In 2021, the Yankees will have at minimum one regular who was acquired at the 2016 deadline (Torres), and it could be as many as two regulars (Torres and Frazier) plus a reliever (Heller). Escanio, Green, Nelson, and Vargas are still in the farm system, as is whoever the Yankees signed with the international bonus money acquired in the Feyereisen trade (I think?). And Britton being a Yankee can maybe be traced back to the 2016 deadline as well. All these years later, the 2016 trade deadline is still shaping the roster, and will continue to for the foreseeable future.

3. Remembering a random Yankee: Mike Buddie. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a pitcher who once landed a gig preparing Kevin Costner for his role in For Love of the Game. Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Buddie grew up in the Cleveland suburbs and after a decorated three-sport (baseball, football, wrestling) high school career, he went to Wake Forest and threw 273.1 innings with a 4.28 ERA in three years. In 1992, his draft year, Buddie had a 3.45 ERA in 122.2 innings. He struck out 138 batters that spring, which is still the school’s single-season record.

The Yankees selected Buddie in the fourth round (102nd overall) of the 1992 draft and paid him a $75,000 signing bonus. The road through the minors was bumpy. From 1992-96, Buddie threw 691.2 innings with a 4.41 ERA and had to repeat Double-A. It wasn’t until the Yankees put him in the bullpen full-time in 1997 that he put himself on the big league radar.

Buddie had a 2.64 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 75 innings as a reliever with Triple-A Scranton in 1997. The Yankees did not give Buddie a Sept. call-up that year and he instead made his MLB debut early in 1998. He was called up to replace Mariano Rivera, who went on the then-disabled list with a groin injury five games into the season.

On April 6th, 1998, Buddie made his MLB debut at age 27 in the eighth inning of a blowout loss in Seattle. Five of the first six batters he faced reached base and Buddie was charged with four runs on three hits and two walks in one inning. Two days later the Mariners hung another run on him, a solo homer by random Yankee Russ Davis, in 1.2 innings.

Buddie earned his first MLB win two days later, in the highest scoring home opener in Yankees history. He entered with the Yankees leading 12-9 in the fifth inning, allowed all three runners he inherited to score, and tacked on a run of his own as well. The Yankees regained the lead in the next half-inning and held it the rest of the game, hence Buddie getting the win.

“You’d love for that first game ball for your first Major League win to be like a 3-2 pitchers battle,” Buddie told Ron Morris last year. “The final score was 17-13. So, there are so many numbers on that ball that ... It’s staggering.”

Buddie spent the rest of 1998 bouncing between Triple-A and MLB. He whittled his ERA down to 4.25 by July 31st, but things unraveled after that. Buddie allowed 19 runs in 22.2 innings the rest of the way, and even made two spot starts in August (11 runs in 10.1 innings). He finished the year with a 5.62 ERA in 41.2 innings. Opponents hit .286/.348/.448 against him.

That offseason Buddie coached Costner in preparation for his role as an aging pitcher in For Love of the Game -- “I taught Costner everything he knows about pitching for that movie,” he jokingly told Bob Fortuna in 2013 -- and he made a cameo in the movie too. He played a Yankees pitcher being removed during a pitching change.

Buddie spent most of 1999 in Triple-A -- he allowed one run in two innings in two big league appearances -- and returned to the minors again in 2000. The Yankees released him that June, after he’d allowed 30 runs in 30 innings in Triple-A. Buddie finished his Yankees career with a 5.56 ERA in 43.2 innings. That works out to -0.4 WAR.

The Brewers signed Buddie soon thereafter and he had some success with them, throwing 41.2 innings with a 3.89 ERA in 2001. 2002 didn’t go so well (23 runs in 39.2 innings) and Buddie was released in June. He never played in MLB again. Buddie finished 2002 in Triple-A with the Expos before returning to the Brewers on a minor league deal in 2003. An elbow injury ended his career at age 32.

“I had Tommy John surgery in 2003,'' Buddie told Fortuna. "I was a free agent then and thought about trying to make a comeback but didn't.''

Following his playing career Buddie returned to Wake Forest and spent a decade in a sports administrator role. He joined Furman University as their athletic director in 2015, then last year he was named West Point’s new athletic director. Now that he’s in a leadership position, Buddie says he regularly draws inspiration from Joe Torre, his first MLB manager.

“I harken back to Joe Torre a lot,” Buddie told Mannie Robinson in 2018. “I think back to how he treated people and how he communicated with people, and those are some things that I try to bring to my office. It’s about having integrity, everybody knowing what they're role is, being held accountable to do that role, and really staying humble and staying hungry.”

4. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Evan Drellich (subs. req’d), no major changes to the current Spring Training schedule are expected. MLB wants to push everything back until fans are allowed to attend games, but Drellich notes MLB can not do that unilaterally unless there’s a government ordered lockdown, and that ain’t happening. It doesn’t help MLB’s case that the NBA recently started its season and the NHL will soon start its season, plus there’s the “we have protocols that allowed us to play last year” thing and the “we undercut our own arguments about prioritizing safety by letting fans attend postseason games” thing. MLB and the MLBPA still have a lot to figure out these next few weeks, including navigating California’s and Canada’s travel restrictions, and the last thing anyone wants is to start Spring Training and then have to shut down at some point, so they really need to get down to business. Yankees pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report Feb. 15th. That’s six weeks from yesterday …  And finally, Phil Hughes announced his retirement over the weekend. He hadn’t pitched since 2018 due to injuries and ineffectiveness, so he made official what was already obvious. I started blogging in 2005, the year after the Yankees drafted Hughes (they drafted him with Houston's first round pick, which they received as compensation for Andy Pettitte), and we launched RAB in Feb. 2007, a few months before he made his MLB debut. Hard to believe he’s now hanging up his spikes as a 12-year veteran. He’s still only 34 too. I’ll never forget him hurting his hamstring in the seventh inning of a no-hitter in his second MLB start. An amazing night went bad so quick. Hughes had his best year as a Yankee in 2009, when he was Mariano Rivera’s setup man, and he went to the All-Star Game as a starter in 2010. In parts of seven seasons with the Yankees, Hughes had a 4.53 ERA (4.31 FIP) in 780.2 innings. His best year came with the Twins in 2014, when he threw 209.2 innings with a 3.52 ERA (2.65 FIP) and a 1.9% walk rate. That’s 16 walks (one intentional!) among 855 batters faced. It’s the fourth lowest single-season walk rate among qualified pitchers in history.

1. 2005 Carlos Silva: 1.2%
2. 1920 Babe Adams: 1.7%
3. 1994 Bret Saberhagen: 1.9% (really 1.868%)
4. 2014 Phil Hughes: 1.9% (really 1.871%)
5. 1933 Red Lucas: 2.0%

Hughes had an 11.63 K/BB that season, the best single-season mark in history. A dozen years in the league, a World Series ring (2009), an All-Star Game selection (2010), a seventh place finish in the Cy Young voting (2014), an Opening Day start (2015), the eighth most WAR among 2004 first round picks, and a little over $80M in contracts. It’s fair to say Hughes did not live up to the expectations that came with his prospect hype -- Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him the No. 4 prospect in the game in 2007 -- but that’s not a bad career. Not at all. I look forward to seeing Phil at Old Timers’ Day.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)