December 29th, 2020: Hot Stove Action, Roster Check-In, Torres, Sanchez

Welcome to the final RAB Patreon post of 2020. It was a pretty crummy year from top to bottom, but I sincerely thank you all for sticking it out with me, and I hope I was able to provide a little escape twice a week. 2021 will be better. It almost can’t be worse. Let’s get to today’s thoughts as friend of the blog and all-around good dude Jay Jaffe casts his first Hall of Fame ballot after 15+ years of unparalleled Hall of Fame analysis.

1. Padres get Snell, Darvish. Real big fan of this new trend of AL East rivals trading their best players as far away as possible. Blake Snell joined Mookie Betts in the NL West in a 4-for-1 trade late Sunday night. The Padres sent the Rays two righties (Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox) and two catchers (Francisco Mejia and Blake Hunt). I had a feeling World Series Game 6 would be Snell’s final appearance as a Ray.

And because Snell isn't enough, the Padres went out and landed Yu Darvish in a 5-for-2 trade yesterday. They get Darvish and Victor Caratini, Darvish's personal catcher, for one year of righty Zach Davies and four rookie ball prospects with 77 combined games of pro experience (all by the same guy). MLB.com ranks them the Nos. 11, 12, 15, and 16 prospects in San Diego's system. A salary dump, through and through. Darvish is owed $59M the next three years and the Cubs gave him away to shed that commitment.

(Just to be clear, the Darvish and Snell trades are not done done. They have reportedly been agreed to, though we're still waiting on official announcements. We should get those soon, maybe even later today.)

Lots to say about these trades. First, what an embarrassment for the Rays and Cubs. It's par for the course for Tampa though. They run shoestring budgets because they choose to run shoestring budgets -- their owner is a finance guy who insists he’s not selling the team, so I reckon he’s making money hand over fist and not running the Rays out of the kindness of his heart -- and they trade their best players as soon as they make decent money (Snell is owed $39M through 2023). Snell signed a five-year extension last March and there was never any chance he’d finish that deal with Tampa. (The last player to sign an extension and finish it with the Rays was Carlos Pena.)

Chicago? Good grief. Imagine ending a 108-year World Series drought and burning up all that goodwill in four years. They won the NL Central this past season! The division is awful and their core (Darvish, Javy Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Hendricks, Anthony Rizzo, etc.) was under control through at least 2021. Anyone with half an interest in winning would look at their situation, add pieces this offseason, and try to make one more run next year, but not the Cubs. They looked at their roster, looked at the rest of the NL Central, and said no, it's not worth the effort. 

The Rays went to the World Series this past season and, rather than add to Snell and try to get over the hump, they’re cutting back. The Cubs won the division and they're cutting back too, and so many people are okay with it. Hell, there’s a not insignificant number of people who applaud this in the name of ~*efficiency*~, and that’s bad. Baseball’s pendulum has swung too far in favor of $/WAR and too far away from winning championships. This is not what MLB should want to sell, but it is.

Second, props to the Padres, who are behaving like all teams should behave. They’re spending money (Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado), they’re trading for high-end talent when it becomes available* (Darvish, Snell, Mike Clevinger), and they’re not playing service time games (Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack were on the 2019 Opening Day roster). San Diego is stuck in a division with the Dodgers and they’re accepting the challenge. They’re the anti-Rays and anti-Cubs and going for it.

* The Padres managed to get Clevinger, Darvish, and Snell without giving up MacKenzie Gore, arguably the top pitching prospect in the game. Even after those three huge trades, San Diego still has four top 100 prospects according to MLB.com. Impressive wheeling and dealing, that is.

Third, the Yankees badly need a starter like Snell (young, excellent, signed affordably, AL East battle-tested, etc.) but there’s no reason to think the Rays would have traded him to their top rival, or that the Yankees even had the pieces to get it done. There is no Yankees equivalent to the package San Diego gave up.

• Luis Patino: Deivi Garcia who throws 96-98 mph rather than 91-93 mph.
• Blake Hunt: Anthony Seigler if he could hit and stay healthy.
• Cole Wilcox: First round talent the Yankees can’t draft when he falls to the third round because they don’t get a Competitive Balance Lottery pick and the associated bonus pool money.
• Francisco Mejia: shrug

Mejia is probably the only one of those four players who will help the Rays in 2021. Patino turned only 21 in October and he’s thrown 25 innings above High-A (17.1 in MLB in 2020), and Tampa’s history strongly suggests they will manipulate his service time. Not just enough to delay free agency either. Enough to avoid Super Two status. The Yankees couldn’t beat that package, and I don’t think the Rays would’ve traded them Snell anyway.

Fourth, the Yankees really should have been in on a Darvish salary dump. Maybe they were and we don't know it, but given their admitted "we're not doing anything until we know what's up with DJ LeMahieu" strategy, I'm comfortable saying they were not seriously in on Darvish. The Cubs gave this dude away -- the Yankees have a ton of rookie ball prospects equivalent to what the Padres gave up (Kevin Alcantara, Maikol Escotto, Antonio Gomez, etc.) and I can't imagine not having an obvious Davies equivalent would be a dealbreaker -- and he's a legit ace. There will never be a good excuse for the Yankees sitting on the sidelines when a team gets cheap and makes elite talent available in a salary dump. This is the first time all winter I feel the Yankees missed out on something and will regret it.

Fifth and finally, my goodness, the Yankees have an unbelievable opportunity sitting in front of them now. The American League landscape is shifting and the Yankees are in position to take advantage. Consider:

• The Rays are cutting back. I know they get the benefit of the doubt with everything, but I assure you replacing Snell and Charlie Morton with Michael Wacha is actually bad.
• The Astros will be without Justin Verlander next year as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, and they may lose George Springer and Michael Brantley to free agency.
• The Athletics are cutting back and could lose 10 -- 10! -- players to free agency, and it’s only a matter of time until Cleveland trades Francisco Lindor.
• The Red Sox and Angels have to rebuild entire pitching staffs. They have position player talent but bottom of the league arms.

The White Sox are excellent, the Twins are formidable, the Blue Jays are on the rise, and every other American League team (Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, Royals, Tigers) is in some kind of rebuild. That’s the competitive landscape right now. The National League has three legitimate powerhouses (Braves, Dodgers, Padres) and possibly a fourth in the making (Mets). The two leagues are in very different places at the moment.

Given everything going on around the league, the road to the American League pennant should -- should -- run through the Bronx. The Rays (and Red Sox) cutting back is not an excuse for the Yankees to rest on their laurels. It’s a reason to be aggressive, address weaknesses, create as much separation as possible between you and the rest of the division/league, and give yourself the best chance to knock off one of the National League powers in a best-of-seven series.

I worry the Yankees will rest on their laurels, however, but that’s what they’ve done most of the last 18 months or so. Nothing at the last two trade deadlines and nothing other than Gerrit Cole (who’s amazing) last offseason. They’ve been in “be good enough to get to the postseason and hopefully we run into a title one of these years” mode the last few seasons, and I don’t think that will change just because the Rays traded a pitcher everyone knew they were going to trade at some point. The rest of the AL is doing the Yankees a huge favor. Don’t let it go to waste.

2. Hot stove rumblings. Despite the holidays, there has been some hot stove activity the last week or so, though nothing directly involving the Yankees. They’ve been bystanders all winter, like most of the league. Let’s break down some recent moves and rumors and what they mean for the Yankees.

Nationals trade for Bell

The Pirates continued their tear down and sent Josh Bell to the Nationals for righties Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean last week. A few weeks ago Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Yean and Crowe as Washington’s No. 8 and No. 10 prospects, respectively, though it’s a weak system. The Yankees equivalent is something like Yoendrys Gomez (Yean) and Mike King (Crowe).

The Yankees reportedly discussed Bell (and Jameson Taillon) with the Pirates earlier this month, and Rob Biertempfel (subs. req’d) says the Yankees initiated those talks, and the “whole thing seems to be intelligence gathering,” so essentially due diligence. You should always check in on talented players in buy-low situations, though first base (and DH) aren’t pressing needs, so Bell was not the most logical fit.

Taillon is coming back from his second Tommy John surgery and Biertempfel says the Pirates “still put a high value” on him, making a trade unlikely. I can’t imagine the Yankees (or any team, for that matter) paying big to get a guy who hasn’t pitched in 18 months and is coming off his second elbow reconstruction, which carries more risk than the first.

With Pittsburgh still in tear down mode, it only makes sense to ask about righty Joe Musgrove, who Jon Heyman says is drawing interest. Musgrove was part of my Offseason Plan and he’s been good (but not great) the last three years. His tools, specifically three swing-and-miss secondary pitches, suggest he has the potential to take his game to another level with a few tweaks. This is something you can build on:

Pirates GM Ben Cherington traded two years of Starling Marte for two top 10 prospects (in a good system) and now he’s traded two years of Bell for two top 10 prospects (in a bad system). Do two top 10 prospects in the middle of the pack system get you Musgrove? Marte is a very good player. Bell was bad in 2020 but has the potential to be very good. I would think Musgrove sits somewhere between those two on the trade value spectrum.

The Yankees gave up a top 50 global prospect (Justus Sheffield) and two others (Erik Swanson and Dom Thompson-Williams) who weren’t among the farm system’s best to get two years of James Paxton, though Paxton’s three seasons prior to the trade (3.52 ERA and 2.90 FIP) were much better than Musgrove’s last three seasons (4.23 ERA and 3.69 FIP). Two top 10 prospects is in the ballpark.

Well, anyway, the Yankees had some interest in Bell and now he’s going elsewhere, not that I’m upset about missing out on him. There’s no reason for the Pirates to keep Musgrove at this point -- they’re going to be terrible and the inherent injury risk is high with all pitchers, so trade him while you can -- so the Yankees should check in. They need pitching and the Bell trade reinforces that the Pirates are in sell everything mode.

(The Nationals trading for Bell confirms that a Max Scherzer trade, which was always extremely unlikely, won't happen. They're trying to win, as they should.)

Padres agree to sign Kim

Oh, by the way, the Padres also agreed to sign Korean shortstop Ha-Seong Kim yesterday. Kevin Acee says it's a four-year deal worth $25M. Here’s what I wrote about Kim last month. Long story short, the 25-year-old is viewed as a top 100 prospect with power and good defense. ZiPS sees him as a +4 WAR player. Even if he tops out at +2 WAR, the contract is pretty great value. And if he’s a total bust, oh well. That money won’t make or break their payroll. Nifty move for San Diego.

Kim will not displace Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop (there have been rumblings about moving Tatis to center field for a few years now, so maybe I’m wrong) nor Manny Machado at third base. He could push second baseman Jake Cronenworth to the outfield or into a super utility role. They’ll figure it out. Too much talent is hardly a problem.

The Yankees were not connected to Kim at all these last few weeks, which isn’t surprising given their apparent “DJ LeMahieu or bust” mentality. The Blue Jays were after Kim, however. They were reportedly the runner-up to sign him. Toronto could pivot to LeMahieu (they've been connected to him), though going from Kim’s asking price to what it’ll take to sign LeMahieu is quite a leap. Usually teams pursue the cheap guy after missing out on the expensive guy, not the other way around.

If nothing else, Kim going to San Diego allows LeMahieu’s camp to continue plausibly claiming the Blue Jays are interested in signing him. Would’ve been tough to keep that story going had Toronto signed Kim. I would be shocked if LeMahieu signs elsewhere this winter. This seems like one of those scenarios where the Yankees will get their guy no matter what. Doesn’t mean a deal will come together soon. I’m just not sure any of the outside noise (Blue Jays interest, Mets having interest after Robinson Cano’s suspension, etc.) will make a difference.

Dodgers sign Kahnle

Tommy Tightpants is taking his tight pants to Los Angeles. The Dodgers gave Tommy Kahnle a two-year contract worth $4.75M over the weekend. He’ll make $750,000 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in 2021, then he’ll make $3.45M in 2022. He also gets a $550,000 signing bonus. Smart team makes smart move. The Dodgers spent pocket change to get a potential impact reliever for 2022.

I understand non-tendering Kahnle -- he was projected to make $2.7M in his final team control year in 2021, well north of the $1.3M he’ll be paid (signing bonus plus salary) -- but this is the sort of move the Yankees rarely make that I wish they did. They don’t guarantee anything to injured pitchers. They’ll happily give guys like Matt Bowman and Adam Warren minor league deals as they rehab from Tommy John surgery, but they won’t give them a 40-man roster spot or a guaranteed salary.

To be clear, the Yankees did the “sign an injured free agent and rehab him” thing once upon a time. They gave Jon Leiber, Octavio Dotel, and David Aardsma big league contracts while they were rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but they haven’t done it since Aardsma in 2012. It seems they decided these guys aren’t worth the resources (money and a roster spot). On one hand, I get it. Focus on healthy players who can help you now.

On the other hand, there’s little risk and so much upside. Kahnle, like Greg Holland and Trevor Rosenthal in previous years, is a legitimate high-leverage option with an elite pitch (changeup) who can get big outs in the postseason. This isn’t a generic middle reliever. If it works, great! If not, no big deal. All it costs you is your most renewable resource (money) and a few weeks of 40-man roster inflexibility. Big deal. (The 40-man space issue goes away once the player is put on the 60-day injured list, which can happen as soon as Spring Training.)

Like I said, I understand non-tendering Kahnle -- why pay him $2.7M to rehab in 2021 when there’s no guarantee he’ll re-sign in 2022? -- and I also didn’t expect the Yankees to re-sign him because again, they don’t give injured free agent pitchers big league contracts. It’s been minor league deal or bust for nearly a decade now. Feels like they’re missing out on opportunities. Oh well. Give ‘em hell in Los Angeles, Tommy. 

At least six teams after Sugano

According to Jon Morosi and Jeff Passan (subs. req’d), at least six teams are after Japanese righty Tomoyuki Sugano: Blue Jays, Giants, Mets, Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox, though I assume San Diego is out now after getting Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. I’m not sure whether Texas is still in the mix after signing fellow Japanese righty Kohei Arihara over the weekend. They gave him two years and $6.2M total, and will pay a $1.24M posting fee. Here’s what I wrote about Sugano (and Arihara) a few weeks ago.

The Yankees not being among the teams reportedly in the mix for Sugano a) doesn’t mean they aren’t interested in him, and b) isn’t terribly surprising. Unless they shout their interest from the rooftops to scare other teams away (think LeMahieu, Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, etc.), the Yankees tend to keep things quiet (think LeMahieu the first time, Adam Ottavino, etc.). Their non-huge money signings usually come out of nowhere.

Sugano has been the best pitcher in Japan since Tanaka left but the consensus seems to be that he’s more of a No. 3 type in the big leagues, which isn’t sexy but is definitely valuable. Mike Minor, Robbie Ray, and Drew Smyly all signed contracts worth $8M to $11M per year this winter. They combined for a 5.55 ERA in 134.2 innings in 2020. Bad pitching is sneaky expensive.

Arihara is not as highly regarded as Sugano -- he’s viewed as a potential back-end starter -- but his contract was still much cheaper than I expected. Two years and $7.44M (contract plus posting fee) is middle reliever money. Either teams are lower on Arihara than I thought or the market is just that bad. Established MLB players are getting frozen out this winter. It would make sense then that players coming from overseas will have it even tougher given the uncertainty.

Sugano is better than Arihara and he has more leverage -- his alternative to signing with an MLB team is not moving halfway around the world in the middle of a pandemic and continuing to be the best pitcher and highest paid player in Japan -- so getting him at middle reliever money seems unlikely. He might be cheaper than Minor and Ray and Smyly on an annual basis though, and a case can be made he offers more upside and a better chance at an impact pitcher.

The clock is ticking. Sugano’s 30-day negotiating window closes next Thursday (Jan. 7th) and that is when the contract must be signed. Physical passed and pen to paper. An agreement is not enough. That timetable probably doesn’t work for the Yankees, who readily admit they are waiting for LeMahieu’s situation to resolve before moving on to other business. Given Sugano’s hard signing deadline, I hope they’re willing to be flexible.

Colas declared a free agent

Oscar Colas, aka the Cuban Ohtani, has been declared a free agent by MLB, reports Jesse Sanchez. The 22-year-old has been with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Japan since 2017, mostly with their developmental squad (i.e. farm team), where he hit .302/.350/.516 with 11 homers in 66 games in 2019. Colas went 5-for-18 (.278) with a homer with the big league team last year.

Colas was given the Cuban Ohtani nickname because he’s a two-way player, or tried to be one at one point. He’s a power-hitting outfielder who can pitch, in theory, though he hasn’t done it much. Colas threw 3.1 innings in Cuba in 2018 -- Cuba and Nippon Pro Baseball have an agreement allowing players to play in both leagues -- and none in Japan, even for the development squad, and that is the extent of his pitching experience.

Because of his age, Colas will be subject to the international spending restrictions when the international signing period opens Jan. 15th. MLB.com ranks him the No. 3 prospect available, though there’s basically no scouting information available anywhere. MLB.com and Baseball America (subs. req’d) say Colas throws in the mid-90s from the left side and has a breaking ball, and that’s it. No information on him as a hitter.

To make this long story short, the Yankees aren’t going to sign Colas. They have a tiny $4.2M bonus pool this signing period -- teams can not trade for bonus pool space this year as per the March agreement -- and they’ve already committed it to Dominican shortstop Hans Montero and Venezuelan catcher Jesus Galiz, among others. In fact, every team has already committed their pool money to other players, which is why Ben Badler (subs. req’d) speculates Colas could wait until next year to sign, when teams have more money available.

There is so little information available about Colas, and the Cuban Ohtani moniker is only going to ratchet the hype beyond reasonable levels. If he signs this signing period and the Yankees miss out because their money is already spent, so be it. What can you do? If Colas is still on the market next year, then hopefully we’ll have more information about him, and can reassess the situation at that time.

3. Roster check-in. Because this is the final post of 2020, I wanted to take a second to look over the current roster and lay out where the Yankees sit heading into 2021. The roster looks like it did at the end of the postseason because the Yankees still have not yet added an MLB player (trade or free agency) this winter. They’ll do that eventually. I think? Probably, yeah.

Anyway, here’s the current roster, assuming a 26-man active roster with the 13-pitcher/13-position player split we were supposed to get this past season (asterisk indicates the player is out of minor league options and must pass through waivers to go to Triple-A):

The Yankees have one open 40-man spot after non-tendering Jonathan Holder and they’ll be able to open another spot as soon as Spring Training begins and they can place Severino on the 60-day injured list. Also, many of those players are interchangeable. It could be Ford over Andujar, Schmidt over King, Kriske over Heller, etc. Don’t sweat those exact names too much.

A few things about the current roster. One, the rotation really scares me. Not exactly breaking news, I know, but every time I see the rotation laid out like that, it really drives home the point. Montgomery is currently the No. 2 and I hope he’s the No. 4 when Opening Day rolls around. Garcia and Schmidt figure to have workload restrictions next season and who knows what to expect from German?

Right now, the Yankees are in a position where they need Severino to come back at midseason and be great, and that’s a really bad place to be with a guy coming off a major surgery and what will essentially be a 2.5-year layoff. Brian Cashman says he wants to add “more certain innings” to the rotation. I do too. Add two starters before Spring Training, please, and not just cannon fodder innings eaters. Give me pitchers worthy of starting postseason games.

Two, the Yankees absolutely should re-sign DJ LeMahieu, but I’m not in the “lose LeMahieu and it’s a disaster” camp. He turns 33 next year and the Yankees have offense to spare, I think. If the Yankees truly only have $30M or so to spend that winter, committing two-thirds of it to a hitter entering his mid-30s seems unwise, even as good as LeMahieu is. Spend on arms and get a cheaper infielder. (Alternatively, remember you’re the Yankees and do both, re-sign LeMahieu and get quality pitching.)

Three, the best LeMahieu-less defensive alignment has Torres at second and Wade at short, though I don’t think the Yankees would do that. I don’t want them to either. We really gonna pull the plug on a just turned 24-year-old Gleyber at shortstop to optimize Tyler Wade? Nah, and I like Wade. An Estrada-Wade platoon is more likely than Wade as the full-time guy anyway. (Please let’s not have an Estrada-Wade platoon.)

Four, how many of those 12 40-man roster players not listed on the active roster can help the Yankees next year, realistically? I count four: Ford, Kriske, Nelson, and Schmidt. Maybe Vizcaino and Yajure as well, particularly if they let Vizcaino air it out as a reliever. Everyone else is a low minors prospect not ready to be anything more than an emergency call-up option.

Maybe I’m wrong and I’m underestimating Florial, Gil, and others. I really hope that’s the case because it seems to me the Yankees have a not insignificant chunk of their 40-man tied up in mid-range prospects who won’t help at the MLB level anytime soon. That is suboptimal for a team trying to win a World Series. Probably should’ve traded some of those players to get MLB help the last few deadlines, huh? You can’t keep everyone. This is what happens when you do.

Five, the Yankees should be -- and probably will be -- very aggressive with minor league deals these next few weeks. Their depth needs are pretty clear. They badly need a third catcher as well as a third string center fielder. They’ll also need a middle infielder depending on LeMahieu’s situation, because you can’t assume the Phillies will return Rule 5 Draft pick Kyle Holder. That plus the usual array of pitching figures to be on the shopping list.

Velazquez is versatile and provides coverage on the middle infield and in center field, so those needs aren’t as pressing as the third catcher. Still, those are areas that can be upgraded. The good news is free agency is moving so slowly -- how is this anything other than a concerted league-wide effort to suppress player salaries? --  that dozens will be stuck looking for work in February (and March). That’ll create an opportunity to load up on non-roster players. Non-roster players who are better than the typical non-roster player, potentially.

The only reason I’m not anxious about the Yankees’ general inactivity is the lack of activity around the league, Padres aside. It’s boring -- MLB is in the entertainment business and this offseason has been decidedly not entertaining up until these last two days -- but the Yankees hadn’t missed out on anyone that really bothered me until Darvish. By projected 2021 WAR, only one of the top eight free agents has signed and only three of the top 17 have signed. There is still so much talent available.

Looking at the roster as I’ve laid out, rotation help stands out as the No. 1 need with re-signing LeMahieu not too far behind. From there, it’s just depth additions and opportunistic upgrades. The Yankees should get impact pitching and LeMahieu, not one or the other, though I worry the cost-cutting will force them to get one and bargain shop for the other. We’ll see. That’s where the roster stands at the moment.

4. Nelson in 2020. 212 players made their MLB debuts during the abbreviated 2020 season. Is that a lot? Yes, that’s a lot. There were 261 debuts in 2019 and 247 debuts in 2018, and those were full 162-game seasons with regular old September call-up rules. Twenty-two players made their MLB debuts with zero Double-A or Triple-A experience in 2020. Only 16 players did that from 2010-19.

The Yankees had seven players make their MLB debut this past season: Albert Abreu, Estevan Florial, Deivi Garcia, Brooks Kriske, Nick Nelson, Clarke Schmidt, and Miguel Yajure. Garcia and Schmidt are the current top prospects and it feels like Florial has been around forever. He’s a famous name. Abreu, Kriske, Nelson, and Yajure are all promising in their own way.

Nelson spent most of the season on the MLB roster -- he was on the active roster for 52 of 67 regular season days, if you can believe that -- and his numbers weren’t good: 4.79 ERA (5.56 FIP) in 20.2 innings. One disaster outing in Philadelphia (seven runs in 1.2 innings) skews that a bit though, and Nelson allowed six runs (five earned) in 16 innings after that.

In those 20.2 innings Nelson got plenty of ground balls (55.7%), walked too many (12.2%), and didn’t miss as many bats as his stuff would lead you to believe (20.0% strikeouts and 12.6% swings and misses, more or less league average rates). For a guy with a 95-98 mph fastball, two high-spin breaking balls, and an upper-80s changeup that does this (video link) …

… yeah, you’d expect more strikeouts. The good news is we’re talking about a 20.2-inning sample, and Nelson has a history of missing bats in the minors. He had a 29.5% strikeout rate at Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, and a 27.5% strikeout rate at High-A and Double-A in 2018. Give Nelson a chance to get his legs under him and I think the strikeouts will tick up.

Visually, I think Nelson’s stuff is more impressive than Deivi’s. Deivi’s stuff seems to play better in that hitters don’t take as many comfy swings, but just based on how it looks, Nelson’s stuff is really impressive. Power fastball, a changeup that does that *points at GIF above* and a hammer curveball that falls off the table (video). Just watch this. It’s an arm you can dream on.

The Yankees helped Nelson add a slider last year and he apparently trusts it enough now that he threw it twice as often as his curveball (his go-to secondary pitch prior to 2019) during his brief MLB debut. It’s a mid-80s pitch with an above-average spin rate, and the movement profile is very good. Much better than average horizontal and vertical movement.

Here’s a plot showing slider vertical and horizontal movement relative to the league average:

Other pitchers with sliders in the same general area as Nelson: Walker Buehler, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove. Pretty good company. I’m not sure whether he’ll ever throw enough strikes to be a starter (career 12.3% walks in the minors), but Nelson has a starter’s repertoire. The slider gives him a legitimate fourth pitch. Fastball, slider, curveball, changeup will always play.

Ideally, Nelson would have made a full season’s worth of starts with Triple-A Scranton in 2020. The pandemic didn’t allow that, so he made do with sporadic mop up duty in the big leagues. He’ll almost certainly ride the shuttle in 2021 and serve as a swingman type, and there is value in that. There’s something to be said for learning how to get outs in the big leagues regardless of role rather than starting every fifth day in the minors.

I’m not really sure where I’m going with this. I just felt like writing about Nelson because he intrigues me. He’s always had good stuff, that’s long been the book on him, and his MLB debut was eye-opening. It didn’t go well, but the stuff is lively, and there’s enough pitches that Nelson might be able to start. It would be cool to continue developing him in that role, though the team’s needs may not allow it. They may need him in relief in the short-term.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Clay Rapada. This week’s random Yankee comes by request and will be remembered as one of the last LOOGYs in franchise history, assuming the three-batter minimum rule doesn’t go away at some point. Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Rapada is a long shot success story. The Cubs signed him as an undrafted free agent out of Virginia State in 2002 and he made his MLB debut at age 26 in June 2007. A few weeks after that, he was traded to the Tigers as the player to be named later for Craig Monroe at the Aug. 31st postseason roster eligibility deadline.

The Tigers were pretty bad in 2008 and Rapada spent the season shuttling between Triple-A and Detroit. He allowed 11 runs in 21.1 innings and allowed a .370 OBP to lefty batters, which is no way to stay on the roster. In 2009, Rapada appeared in only three games with the Tigers and spent most of the season in Triple-A. He’d allowed 16 runs in 27.1 MLB innings up to that point.

Rapada went to the Rangers in a cash trade in Dec. 2009 and he split 2010 between Triple-A and the big leagues. Remember the four-run eighth inning comeback in Game 1 of the ALCS against Texas that year? Rapada gave up the game-tying hit to Robinson Cano. Here’s the video. He faced three batters in that series and got one out.

The Rangers released Rapada in Jan. 2011 and he caught on with the Orioles soon thereafter, and, once again, he split the year between Triple-A and MLB. He allowed 11 runs in 16.1 big league innings in 2011 and his (small sample) splits were hilarious:

• vs. RHB: .692/.750/1.462 (.873 wOBA) with 0.0 K% and 18.8 BB%
• vs. LHB: .104/.170/.167 (.159 wOBA) with 34.0 K% and 7.5 BB%

The Orioles released Rapada not long before Spring Training 2012 and he signed a minor league deal with the Yankees a few days later. They signed him because Hideki Okajima failed his physical and they needed to replenish their lefty bullpen depth. (I had completely forgotten the Yankees signed Okajima.)

Spring Training went very well for Rapada. He allowed one run in 10 innings overall and, more importantly, he held lefties to 1-for-18 (.056) with 10 strikeouts. Boone Logan was established as the No. 1 lefty in the bullpen at the time. If the Yankees were going to carry a second lefty, it was going to be either Rapada or Rule 5 Draft pick Cesar Cabral.

“That’s one of the real tough decisions, what we are going to do in that situation,” then-manager Joe Girardi told George King that spring when asked about carrying two lefties. “There is a decent chance that our minds have changed and we will take a second lefty.”

The decision was made for the Yankees. Cabral suffered an elbow injury in March -- he pitched well during Grapefruit League play and seemed like a lock to make the team  -- clearing the way for Rapada to make the Opening Day roster. He was the last guy in the bullpen behind Logan, David Phelps, Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, and Cory Wade.

Rapada made his Yankees debut in the second game of the 2012 season. He recorded his first out on a pickoff to end the seventh inning with the Yankees down 6-1 to the Rays. Rapada went back out to begin the eighth and went walk (Carlos Pena), ground rule double (Evan Longoria), single (Matt Joyce), walk (Ben Zobrist), fly ball (Luke Scott) as Tampa broke the game open.

After allowing two earned runs in his debut, Rapada allowed just two earned runs over the next five weeks. He appeared in 16 games in those five weeks but threw only 9.2 innings. Five times in those 16 games he faced only one batter and on seven other occasions he faced only two batters. Rapada was as LOOGY as LOOGYs get. Look at this delivery (GIF via Doug Thorburn):

Rapada didn’t have a “signature moment” as a Yankee but there is one game that stands out in my memory. The Yankees were in Atlanta in mid-June and they went into the second game of the series with a very taxed bullpen. CC Sabathia started and was not sharp, but Girardi pushed him through seven innings anyway because he needed the length.

The Yankees took a 6-4 lead into the eighth inning and, because he had no other choice, Girardi went to Rapada to face the middle of the Braves lineup. Not only that, but Rapada was pitching for the fourth day in a row and the fifth time in six days. Granted, he faced only 10 batters and threw only 33 pitches in the previous five days, but still. Four days in a row is taxing.

Rapada’s inning went strikeout (Freddie Freeman), walk (Andrelton Simmons), line out (David Ross), fly out (Michael Bourn). He threw 19 pitches and I remember being nervous for all 19, especially after the walk to Simmons. Here’s the inning. Rapada got through the eighth inning, Soriano closed the door in the ninth, and the Yankees won the game.

From June 1st through the end of the season Rapada allowed seven runs (six earned) with 29 strikeouts and eight walks in 24.2 innings. Those 24.2 innings came in 49 appearances (lol). Rapada finished the regular season with a 2.82 ERA (3.20 FIP) and 24.5% strikeouts, and he threw 38.1 innings in 70 appearances. He faced one batter in 30 (!) of those 70 appearances, and 21 other times he faced two batters. The splits:

• vs. RHB: .303/.425/.424 (.372 wOBA) with 12.5 K% and 15.0 BB%
• vs. LHB: .186/.263/.255 (.238 wOBA) with 28.7 K% and 9.6 BB%

Between Rapada and righty specialist Cody Eppley (.262 wOBA vs. RHB), the Yankees had a fierce middle innings matchup tandem in 2012. They also had two solid lefties -- Logan held left-handed batters to a .289 wOBA that year -- for the first time in a long time. The Yankees had been seeking a reliable lefty matchup guy for years. Suddenly they had two.

Rapada faced one batter in the ALDS win over the Orioles -- he got Chris Davis to ground out in the Game 4 loss -- then he appeared in all four ALCS games against the Tigers. Girardi used him as a Prince Fielder specialist. Rapada’s ALCS game log:

• Game 1: Struck out Fielder (Yankees down 4-0 in the ninth)
• Game 2: Walked Fielder (Yankees down 3-0 in the eighth)
• Game 3: Fielder grounded out, Delmon Young intentionally walked, Andy Dirks grounded out (Yankees down 2-0 in the fifth)
• Game 4: Fielder grounded out (Yankees down 6-0 in the fifth)

The Yankees scored a run in that series, I swear. Six, in fact, which wasn’t near enough to avoid the four-game sweep. Anyway, it wasn’t Rapada’s fault the Yankees got swept. He faced six batters in the series and retired four, and one of the two baserunners was an intentional walk. Rapada did his job. The rest of the Yankees did not.

At age 31, Rapada had a career year with the Yankees in 2012. You’d think that would ensure him a roster spot in 2013, but no dice. Rapada came down with an achy shoulder in Spring Training, and rather than stash him on what was then called the disabled list, the Yankees designated him for assignment. The move cleared a 40-man roster spot for Lyle Overbay.

Rapada cleared waivers and returned to the Yankees on a minor league contract a few days later, and allowed five runs in 9.2 innings with Triple-A Scranton. The Yankees released him in June, then he hooked on with Cleveland and made four scoreless appearances as a Sept. call-up. After that strong 2012 season, Rapada threw only two more innings in the big leagues.

From 2013-15, Rapada bounced from the Yankees to Cleveland to the Angels to the Mariners to the Orioles to the Giants, all on minor league contracts. His final pitching appearance came with the Philippines in the 2017 World Baseball Classic qualifying round in Feb. 2016. “It was nice to come out here for the experience. To me, it is priceless,” Rapada told Niall Adler at the time.

Rapada retired with +1.1 WAR (+0.8 WAR with the Yankees) and he holds two distinctions. One, he is the last Yankees pitcher to pitch four consecutive days. Several have pitched four straight games since then, but Rapada is the last to pitch four straight days. I can’t imagine anyone will do that anytime soon given how careful the Yankees are with their relievers.

And two, Rapada went 8-0 in his MLB career. That is the most wins in history among pitchers with zero losses. Pretty cool. Rapada went from undrafted free agent to spending parts of seven seasons in the big leagues, and now he’s coaching. He’s worked as a Low-A pitching coach (2016-19) and assistant pitching coordinator (2020) the last few years, all with the Giants.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Gleyber Torres is a late addition to the winter ball circuit. He will join Leone del Caracas in the Venezuelan Winter League later this week, the team announced. The Yankees have cleared Gleyber to DH only. The season ends Jan. 10th, so Torres will only get 7-10 days worth of at-bats. Not much, but game action beats hitting in a batting cage some more … Marly Rivera has a good interview with Gary Sanchez. Gary is usually very private, but he spoke candidly about 2020. Sanchez mentioned a communication breakdown, specifically in the postseason, when he was benched in the ALDS despite a strong performance in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series (two-run homer and game-tying sac fly in the ninth). This stuck out:

What crossed my mind was that I didn't know what was going on. I didn't know why I wasn't playing, if it was my defense or because I wasn't hitting. That was what I was thinking about. So that's where you start forcing things more than you should, and that's when you make mistakes. I would have liked someone to tell me, "This is what's happening -- this and that," and one has to understand and accept that as a man. You focus in that you have to improve this and that. But no one explained to me why.

Seeing how the Yankees tout their manager’s communication skills every chance they get, a core player alluding to a communication breakdown isn’t great. When a guy is your starter all season and your starter the previous three seasons as well, yes, you should explain to him why he’s sitting in October, even if that explanation is something as obvious as “you hit .147 and we gave you all season to figure it out, and we can’t wait any longer.” This shouldn’t need to be said ... According to Terry Lifton, MLB recently approached several marketing agencies seeking input “on pricing, value, and suitability” of ads on uniforms. Specifically, they’re looking into a patch on jersey sleeves and a decal on batting helmets. I assume it would be similar to what the Yankees (and Red Sox) wore in London.

I’m surprised it took MLB this long to seriously explore uniform ads. The NBA began accepting jersey sponsorships in 2017 -- 26 teams have ads on their jerseys this year -- and three NHL teams recently unveiled helmet ads. Uniform ads are an inevitability. MLB won’t let that revenue stream go untapped forever and honestly, I don’t care. Uniform ads won’t change how I enjoy the game. The Nike swoosh on jerseys? Don’t even notice it. Like everything else, I suspect people will be Mad Online whenever uniform ads arrive, then they’ll get over them after a few weeks and move on to being mad about the next thing … Last but certainly not least, Hall of Famer Phil Niekro passed away over the weekend. He was 81 and is said to have been battling cancer for some time. Niekro is the most famous knuckleballer in history and he spent 21 of his 24 MLB seasons with the Braves. He signed with the Yankees as a free agent in 1984 -- the New York Times report says they outbid the Athletics and Pirates to get him (times have changed, eh?) -- and had a 3.59 ERA in 435.2 innings from 1984-85. Those were his age 45 and 46 seasons. Niekro is the oldest player to ever appear in a game for the Yankees -- he was 46 years and 188 days old when he made his final appearance in pinstripes (Jesse Orosco is second oldest at 46 years and 126 days) -- and his career workload is just incredible. He averaged -- averaged -- 256.3 innings a season from 1967-86, and his 5,404 career innings are fourth most in history and the most among pitchers who started their careers after 1910:

1. Cy Young: 7,356 innings (1890-1911)
2. Pud Galvin: 6,003.1 innings (1875-92)
3. Walter Johnson: 5,914.1 innings (1907-27)
4. Phil Niekro: 5,404 innings (1964-87)
5. Nolan Ryan: 5,386 innings (1966-93)

Niekro is one of only 10 pitchers in history with 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts -- his 300th win was a shutout in his final start as a Yankee -- and Phil’s late brother Joe spent 22 years in the big leagues himself, including 1985-87 with the Yankees. They combined to win 539 games, the most in history by two brothers. Been a real bad year for baseball legends. Niekro is the seventh Hall of Famer to pass away in 2020, joining Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, Al Kaline, Joe Morgan, Tom Seaver, and Yankees legend Whitey Ford. Rest in peace, Knucksie.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)