December 22nd, 2020: LeMahieu, Gardner, Castillo, A's, Expansion

Quick reminder: Barring breaking news, there will not be a post this Friday because of the whole Christmas thing. I hope you all are having a good holiday season. 2020 was a pretty crappy year for many reasons but better days are ahead. Let’s get to today’s thoughts as the NHLPA gets full salary for a shortened 56-game season (players did agree to defer 10% of their salaries though).

1. Hot stove rumblings. There hasn’t been a ton of hot stove chatter the last few days and that will likely continue to be the case until after New Years. Things usually slow around this time of the year anyway, even in normal times. Here’s the latest hot stove chatter.

LeMahieu seeking $125M?

Over the weekend Bob Klapisch (subs. req’d) reported DJ LeMahieu is seeking a five-year deal worth $125M, and that “no one in the (Yankees) organization wants to commit to a fifth year” because they “would be bidding against themselves.” A day or two later, Jeff Passan (subs. req’d) reported the Blue Jays have “emerged as significant players” for LeMahieu.

Y’all see what’s going on here, right? The Yankees leaked LeMahieu’s asking price to scare away other teams (and possibly make him look unreasonable) and LeMahieu’s camp responded by saying an AL East rival is heavily in the mix (Toronto is surely happy to oblige if it leads to the Yankees spending more money than they’d like). This isn’t MLB and the MLBPA taking potshots at each other over every little thing. This is how free agency normally plays out through the media.

LeMahieu is awesome and I don’t think five years and $125M would be an unreasonable asking price in normal times, but I have a hard time thinking he’ll get that amid the pandemic. That guaranteed fifth year would likely either have to come with a lower overall annual salary or not at all. Maybe the compromise is a fifth year vesting option? Then again, if no other team offers five years, a compromise may not be necessary.

The Yankees have made it clear LeMahieu is their top priority -- “(There) are certain players you feel are more worth the waiting game on, and I think DJ LeMahieu is worth that,” Brian Cashman told Dan Martin last week -- and when the Yankees publicly state a free agent is their top priority, they usually get their guy. It’s been a long time since they lost out an obvious No. 1 free agent target (Cliff Lee in 2011)?

Cashman has admitted the Yankees are waiting for the LeMahieu situation to resolve before moving on to other business, so I imagine they want to wrap this up soon. There’s no reason for LeMahieu to rush into anything though. He can take his time and drag this out, and make the Yankees uncomfortable. Unless another team jumps in with a legitimate five-year offer, patience is the best leverage LeMahieu has.

The guess here is the Yankees and LeMahieu will eventually agree to a four-year contract in the $20M to $22M range per season -- that’s roughly the Josh Donaldson contract -- but it won’t happen until next month sometime, possibly not until mid January. No one seems to be in a rush to sign top free agents and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Yankees haven’t made offer to Gardner

Brett Gardner’s agent recently told Randy Miller they have not yet received a contract offer from the Yankees, which isn’t surprising seeing how the team is waiting on LeMahieu before doing anything else. As expected, Gardner wants to return to New York.

“I talked to Brian (Cashman) the day that the Yankees selected not to pick up his option,” Gardner’s agent told Miller. “At the time, he explained what was going on with finances and obviously talked about LeMahieu, etc. I indicated to Brian -- as Brett has always indicated -- that Gardy would like to be back there. Brian said, ‘We’ll see how all this plays out and we’ll be in touch.’”

Even at age 37, Gardner still has value as a lefty platoon bat who plays strong defense and is a clubhouse leader. His next contract shouldn’t prevent the Yankees from doing anything else -- what are we talking here, one year and $5M? -- and this team always needs depth given their injuries. As I’ve said before, I will believe Gardner won’t return to the Yankees when I see him wearing a different uniform.

Cashman doesn’t want to scramble for pitching

Pitching is the No. 1 need for the Yankees this offseason (I’d argue moreso than re-signing LeMahieu) and over the weekend Cashman said he’d like to add “more certain innings” to the rotation during a radio interview. Here’s the audio and here’s a transcript via MLB.com:

“I think we have a framework at the very least to fall back on,” Cashman said of those young arms, “but I definitely feel like we need to try to address more certain innings. You don’t want to be in a position where you’re scrambling. … No one ever wants to be in a scrambling mode, because then it dominoes into your bullpen and can have an adverse negative effect on you."

...

“If I can add to what I have sooner than later, all the better,” added Cashman, “but if I have to wait to do it in-season, so be it. We might have enough here before us that’s just untested.”

Just scanning the list of unsigned free agent starters, the guys you could safely drop into the “innings eater” bucket include Mike Leake, Jon Lester, Rick Porcello, Jose Quintana, and old buddy J.A. Happ. They may not give you high quality innings at this point in their careers, but they’ll give you “more certain innings” and take the ball every five days.

I am of the belief the Yankees need two starters this offseason. One impact guy (a worthy No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole, basically) and an innings eater type to plug in near the middle (or back) of the rotation. This would be my ideal rotation going into 2021:

1. Gerrit Cole
2. No. 2 starter addition
3. No. 3-4 starter addition
4. Jordan Montgomery
5. Deivi Garcia, Domingo German, Mike King, Clarke Schmidt, etc.

I can’t say I expect that to happen, but that’s my perfect world scenario. Garcia and Schmidt will be on innings restrictions next year and who knows what to expect from German. Also, adding depth following the 60-game season would be smart. Cole will probably be fine, but what about Montgomery? He hasn’t thrown more than 50 -- 50! -- innings in a season since 2017. How many innings could you expect from him before fatigue sets in next year?

The more pitching, the better. I’d rather have too much and not need it than need it and not have it. Whether the Yankees are willing to invest what it'll take (money and/or prospects) to add an impact No. 2 type starter and a second innings eater is another matter. It may be one or the other, and there’s a lot more of the latter available than the former.

Reds talking Castillo

According to Jon Heyman, the Reds are discussing right-hander Luis Castillo in trades. They’ve been in cost-cutting mode all offseason -- Cincinnati non-tendered Archie Bradley and Brian Goodwin, and salary dumped Raisel Iglesias -- and Sonny Gray figures to be next to move. In that case, it only makes sense to listen on Castillo as well.

Castillo, 28, is outstanding and would be a worthy No. 2 behind Cole. He had a 3.21 ERA (2.65 FIP) with 30.5% strikeouts and 58.4% grounders in 70 innings this past season, and last year it was a 3.40 ERA (3.70 FIP) with 28.9% strikeouts and 55.3% grounders in 190.2 innings. This is about as good as it gets:

Castillo is essentially Tommy Kahnle as a starter. He has a mid-to-upper-90s fastball and what might be the best changeup in the sport. Castillo sells it well with his arm action and the pitch dives down and out of the zone. He throws it to lefties and righties, in any count, etc. etc. Also, he has a good slider that serves as his third pitch.

These days Castillo throws the changeup more than the fastball, and the changeup had a 40.1% whiffs-per-swing rate in 2020. That was a) comfortably above the 32.1% league average for changeups, and b) Castillo’s worst whiffs-per-swing rate on his changeup in his four MLB seasons. Here are two minutes of Castillo changeups. What a pitch.

Castillo has three years of team control remaining and he’s projected to make $3M in 2021. As you’d expect, Heyman says the asking price is crazy high. The performance, team control, and affordable salaries make Castillo incredibly valuable -- FanGraphs ranked him No. 32 in their trade value series -- so yeah, the asking price should be crazy high.

Not many ace-caliber starters are traded three years prior to free agency. The best comparison I can come up with is Quintana, who was dealt from the White Sox to the Cubs with three and a half years of control remaining at the 2017 trade deadline. Here are Castillo’s last two years and Quintana’s year and a half prior to the trade:

(Don’t get hung up on the difference in innings. Castillo has been perfectly healthy, it’s just that he only had a 60-game season in 2020. Quintana was traded 90 games into 2017.)

To get Quintana, the Cubs gave up a global top 10 prospect (Eloy Jimenez), a global top 75 prospect (Dylan Cease), and two non-top-30 organizational prospects (Bryant Flete and Matt Rose). Garcia and Schmidt are good equivalents to Cease, but the Yankees don’t have an Eloy. Gleyber Torres is presumably off-limits, but they could offer Clint Frazier.

I love Clint, and Garcia and Schmidt are pretty cool too, but if you’re not willing to package two of them (plus other lesser pieces) to get a guy like Castillo, you’re hugging your prospects too tight. Castillo is a true difference-maker. Someone who could swing a postseason series all by himself. Imagine starting him and Cole four times in a best-of-seven? Sign me the hell up.

The Reds are slashing payroll and maybe there's a way to lower the prospect cost to get Castillo by taking on another player making real money (Mike Moustakas as a LeMahieu replacement?). Either way, the Yankees should be after Castillo if he’s truly available. If they don't have the pieces to get it done, so be it, but they have to try. This is the type of pitcher they need and should pursue very aggressively.

2. The A’s as trade partners. Like most of MLB, the Athletics are in a holding pattern. They made two Rule 5 Draft picks and have otherwise done nothing this offseason despite 10 players becoming free agents: Mike Fiers, Robbie Grossman, Liam Hendriks, Jake Lamb, Tommy La Stella, T.J. McFarland, Mike Minor, Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria, and Marcus Semien.

The A’s have been sitting on their hands these last few weeks because money is tight amid the pandemic. Their projected 2021 payroll currently sits around $72M, down from $90M this past season, and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports Oakland may have to cut even more money. “Free agents, at the moment, appear out of the question,” Rosenthal writes. Yikes!

It’s not just the pandemic putting the squeeze on the Athletics. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement phased them out of MLB’s revenue sharing system -- Jane Lee says the A’s received more than $30M in revenue sharing the year before the phase-out began -- so they can’t count on that money going forward. Revenue sharing covered about one-third of their payroll.

Cost-cutting trades will be required should ownership mandate further payroll reductions. Hell, the A’s may have to make trades to reallocate payroll just to address their current roster needs. Turn one $5M player into one $3M and one $2M player, something like that. With that in mind, let’s look over Oakland’s roster and see whether there are any fits for the Yankees.

RHP Chris Bassitt

Very quietly, Bassitt pitched at an ace level in 2020. He was solid in 2019, throwing 144 innings with a 3.81 ERA (4.40 FIP) in his first unrestricted and fully healthy season since Tommy John surgery in 2016, then this past season he threw 63 innings with a 2.29 ERA (3.59 FIP). The underlying numbers (21.1 K%, 6.5 BB%, 43.8 GB%) don’t stand out at all.

Truth be told, nothing stands out about Bassitt. His fastball sits 92-95 mph and his spin rates are underwhelming (if not outright bad) across the board. And yet, he’s cobbled together over 200 above-average innings with his healthy elbow the last two years. Bassitt’s done it by ambushing hitters with a six-pitch arsenal, including five pitches he throws at least 10% of the time.

Those six pitches include three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter), two breaking balls (slider and curveball), and a changeup. The slider is Bassitt’s seldom used sixth pitch and he hits every velocity benchmark from low-70s (curve) to mid-70s (slider) to low-80s (changeup) to upper-80s (cutter) to low-90s (sinker) to mid-90s (four-seamer). Here’s a fastball/curveball overlay (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Pitching is all about disrupting the hitter’s timing and Bassitt accomplishes that by using five pitches regularly (plus the occasional sixth pitch) and forcing hitters to cover a 25 mph or so velocity range. And by throwing a lot of strikes. It may not be eye-popping stuff, but Bassitt is aggressive with it. That allows him to suppress hard contact and limit damage.

For all intents and purposes, the soon-to-be 32-year-old Bassitt is Oakland’s ace, and he is projected to make $5.5M through arbitration in 2021. He will remain under control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2022 as well. If the A’s are going to trade him, there’s probably no better time to do it than right now. I’m not sure his value will ever be higher.

Dylan Bundy and Gerrit Cole were both traded with two years of team control remaining in the not-too-distant past and both fetched four-player packages that were quantity more than quality. Bassitt’s most recent two seasons are better than Bundy’s and Cole’s two seasons prior to their trades, but those two had better health track records and were a safer bet to eat innings.

If Bassitt is available in a quantity over quality trade -- as noted earlier, the A’s may need to trade one player for multiple players just to plug their roster holes -- then yeah, the Yankees should check in, especially given the extra year of control. Bassitt doesn’t fit their preferred “throw hard and miss bats” profile, but not everyone needs the organizational stamp.

LHP Jake Diekman

The A’s are set to lose three key late-inning relievers to free agency (Hendriks, Petit, Soria), so trading their top remaining reliever seems foolish, but again, money matters, and Diekman is owed $4M in 2021 plus a $750,000 buyout of his $4M club option for 2022. Similar to Bassitt, his trade value may never be higher than it is right now.

Diekman, 34 next month, was the quintessential enigmatic reliever who threw hard but didn’t always throw strikes earlier in his career, and he was tantalizing enough to keep getting opportunities. He took his game to another level this past season by learning a slider. By learning Chaz Roe’s slider on Twitter, to be specific. David Adler has the story.

With the new slider complementing his upper-90s fastball, Diekman set new career highs in strikeout rate (36.9%), swing-and-miss rate (17.3%), and ground ball rate (61.5%). He still walks too many (14.3%), but at least now the walks come with more strikeouts and grounders (and less hard contact). Diekman learned a new pitch and became a monster.

Of course, Diekman threw only 21.1 innings in 2020, so all that happened in a tiny sample. Will he post a 0.42 ERA again? Almost certainly not because no pitcher’s true talent is a 96.9% (!) strand rate. Will he hold righties to 3-for-43 (.070) with a 44.0% strikeout rate again? Doubt it. Those are small sample size numbers ripe for regression next year.

That said, the slider is a tangible reason to believe Diekman is a better pitcher now than he was at this time last year. Earlier in his career he was fastball reliant and leaned on the heater to get outs. He doesn’t need to do that anymore. Diekman has a legitimate second pitch that suggests, even with a step back in 2021, he can still be very good.

It’s hard to figure out what Diekman is worth in a trade. You’d get at least one and possibly two years of him, and his track record as a great reliever is short. There are so many relievers sitting in free agency right now that trading mid-range prospects (or young big leaguers) for Diekman doesn’t make much sense, I don’t think. Just spend money and sign someone.

2B Tony Kemp

Kemp was a personal favorite once upon a time -- I thought he could be a pesky high on-base type who played all over -- but those days are over. He’s a powerless lefty platoon bat -- Kemp hit .267/.381/.326 (108 wRC+) against righties this past season -- with no real home defensively. You can put him at second or in the corner outfield, but he won’t save you runs.

The .381 OBP against righties is nice, but it’s a .325 OBP against righties in the much larger sample of his entire career, and there’s just not much else here. Even as a speedy guy, Kemp doesn’t steal bases nor provide big value with his legs. And the A’s have already committed to pay him $1.05M in 2021. They gave him a pre-tender deal earlier this month.

Should DJ LeMahieu sign elsewhere, the Yankees will need another second baseman, so in that sense Kemp fits. I also feel like the Yankees have the exact same player already in Tyler Wade, except Wade is a legitimately above-average defender on the infield, and he’s making the league minimum. Don’t see it. Kemp doesn't move the needle.

LHP Sean Manaea

It's been an eventful few years for Manaea. He followed up a breakout 2018 (3.59 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 1602 innings) by missing most of 2019 with shoulder surgery, and having a very uneven 2020. Manaea allowed 17 runs in 15 innings in his first four starts this past season. In his final seven starts, he allowed 15 runs in 39 innings. The end result was a 4.50 ERA (3.71 FIP).

Manaea turns 29 in February and he just wrapped up his fifth MLB season, and yet I still don’t know what to make of him. Excepting his five-start return from shoulder surgery last season, Manaea has been about average his entire career. He’s not a big strikeout guy (career 19.7%), not a big ground ball guy (44.6%), and not a big exit velocity limiter (88.3 mph). I mean, eh:

The good news: Manaea’s stuff has returned following shoulder surgery. His fastball averaged 90.4 mph in 2020 (it was 90.5 mph in 2018) and he’s still getting a very low spin rate on his changeup (1,104 rpm, which is good), which has replaced the slider as his top secondary pitch. That’s allowed Manaea to fare just as well against righties as lefties the last few seasons.

It’s possible a smart team can get Manaea to another level through adjustments to his pitch selection and whatnot, and there’s a case to be made he’ll be better as he gets further away from shoulder surgery. Even if that doesn’t happen, he still has value as a mid-rotation guy who can occasionally be great. The Yankees could use another mid-rotation starter, for sure.

Manaea has two years of control remaining (he’s projected to make $4.7M in 2021) and, as noted with Bassitt, Bundy and Cole were traded for four-player quantity over quality packages in recent years. That could work as the framework for a potential Manaea trade. Would I want him to be the top pitching addition this winter? Not really, but he’d help the Yankees.

RHP Frankie Montas

You can build a pretty easy narrative around Montas’ last two seasons. The 2019-20 numbers:

• First 15 starts: 2.70 ERA (2.90 FIP) in 90 innings
• Last 12 starts: 5.19 ERA (4.70 FIP) in 59 innings

What happened after those first 15 starts? Montas was suspended for performance-enhancing drugs. He was suspended on June 21st last year, about a week before he was expected to be named to the All-Star Team. I don’t think PEDs are a magic pill that instantly make you good at baseball, but you do lose the benefit of the doubt once you test positive.

Montas was the opposite of Manaea this past season. He started very well (four runs in 23 innings in his first four starts) and finished very poorly (31 runs in 30 innings in his final seven starts), then he allowed another six runs in 5.2 postseason innings. Who is the real Montas? His only extended stretch as an effective starter was immediately prior to the suspension last year.

Among Oakland’s starters, Montas is the most "modern" in that he’s a power pitcher with velocity and spin. He throws his four-seamer and sinker in the upper-90s, his slider has an elite spin rate in the upper-80s, and his splitter dives off the table. At his best in 2019, Montas got strikeouts (26.1%) and grounders (49.4%) and weak contact (87.0 mph exit velocity).

We probably shouldn't spend much time debating the “is Montas good or a PED fluke?” question. He’s under team control through 2023 and is projected to make only $1.6M through arbitration in 2021. Unless some team blows the A’s away with an offer, I bet they keep him. Montas is cheap and his value is way down. No need to sell low right now.

1B Matt Olson

For the purposes of this post, I assumed third baseman Matt Chapman is completely off-limits, and even if he were available, I’m not sure the Yankees have the pieces to get a trade done. Other clubs have the prospect capital to outbid them handily. That may not be the case with Olson, however, the other half of the A’s infield Matts.

Olson, 27 in March, had a weird 2020, hitting .195/.310/.424 (103 wRC+) with 14 home runs while playing in all 60 games. That comes after hitting .256/.344/.518 (131 wRC+) with 89 home runs in 348 games from 2017-18. Olson admitted he had trouble finding his swing following the shutdown, so perhaps we can blame the down year on the pandemic.

“I’ve been looking at video and my swing looks really close to when I’m going well,” Olson told Martin Gallegos in August. “It’s been tough to put my finger on exactly what it is. Today, I just wanted to be a little more free with my hands and not as tight. There was a lot of tension at the top. I came out and felt really loose.”

Olson is a left-handed hitter with the extreme pull (46.9% from 2017-19) and fly ball (34.5% grounders from 2017-19) tendencies that suggest he would pepper the short porch with homers. He draws walks (10.0% from 2017-19) and doesn’t strike out excessively (25.4% from 2017-19), and he consistently ranks among the exit velocity league leaders:

1. Aaron Judge: 94.9 mph average exit velocity from 2017-19
2. Nelson Cruz: 93.3 mph
3. Joey Gallo: 93.2 mph
4. Miguel Sano: 92.9 mph
5. Franmil Reyes: 92.8 mph
6. Matt Olson: 92.7 mph
7. Giancarlo Stanton: 92.6 mph

Also, Olson might be the best defensive first baseman in the sport. I say that based on the eye test and the numbers, unreliable as they may be for first basemen. Olson is great at picking throws in the dirt -- a very valuable skill in Oakland given all the foul territory -- and he’s adept at turning 3-6-3 double plays. He and Chapman do things like this on the regular. I'm jealous A's fans get to watch them nightly.

Luke Voit is awesome, but between him and Olson (I’m not sweating his down 2020 too much given the circumstances), who fits the Yankees better? ZiPS projects Voit as the slightly better hitter in 2021 (129 OPS+ vs. 134 OPS+) and neither guy is going to give you anything on the bases. Olson is a significantly better defender though, and he’d be a lefty hitter in a lineup that leans a little too much to the right. Hmmm.

Olson has three years of control remaining and is projected to make $3.5M in 2021. Voit has four years of control remaining and is projected to make $3.7M in 2022. I was thinking Voit for Olson might work because Voit has the extra year of control, but if the A’s are cutting costs, it wouldn’t solve their problem. The Yankees would have to trade others and then clear room for Olson another way.

On paper, yeah, Olson absolutely makes sense for the Yankees. He’ll turn only 27 in March and I’d take his next three years over Voit’s next four years because he’d improve the team defense and help balance the lineup without sacrificing offense. Getting Olson and then having to make a second move to unload Voit complicates things though. Two-parters are never easy.

3. Expansion not imminent. Earlier this month the Phillies named Dave Dombrowski their new president of baseball operations, hiring him away from Music City Baseball, a group trying to bring an expansion franchise to Nashville. Dombrowski was committed enough to the Nashville effort that he reportedly turned down offers to interview elsewhere earlier this offseason (Angels, most notably).

What changed? During his introductory press conference, Dombrowski said he was informed MLB is not planning to expand anytime soon. They’re too focused on getting all their ducks back in a row following the pandemic to think about adding two new franchises. Also, they want to get the Athletics and Rays new ballparks before bringing in two new clubs. Makes sense, I guess.

Over the summer I noted MLB has used expansion to offset sudden financial losses in the past -- the Marlins and Rockies exist because the owners had to pay the 1991 collusion settlement -- and I thought they would do it again after the pandemic. And maybe they still will. There’s still time and never bet against powerful men doing everything they can to make money.

If the NHL can get a $650M expansion fee for its Seattle franchise, MLB could probably get a $1 billion expansion fee, maybe more, and remember, they’d bring two franchises in at the same time. That sure would help offset those pandemic losses, no? Then there’s all the new merchandise they’d sell, the ticket revenue, television money, etc. Expansion is a goldmine.

It has been nearly 23 years since the Diamondbacks and (Devil) Rays played their first games, making this MLB’s longest expansion drought since the league first expanded in 1961. They’re not really going to go through the entire 2020s without expanding, are they? There is so much money to be made. The MLBPA would be cool with all the new jobs too.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires next December and, at the very least, it would make sense to include provisions forming an expansion committee in the next CBA. For expansion to happen, MLB must first put a team together to solicit and review bids, vet cities and prospective owners, things like that. That is the first step in the process.

MLB and the MLBPA don’t have to commit to expansion in the next CBA but they can get the ball rolling. Form an expansion committee and survey the landscape. Even after the pandemic, I reckon there are several parties out there who will happily pay billions to join the money-printing enterprise that is Major League Baseball. Steve Cohen wasn’t an outlier.

An expansion draft would be incredibly fun to cover. It wouldn’t happen until the offseason immediately prior to the expansion franchises beginning play, but it would be fun. We’d get years and years of mock protection lists and expansion drafts. It’d be a blast. These were the protection rules for the 1992 and 1997 expansion drafts:

• Initial protection list included 15 players, then three players could be added after each round (three rounds total).
• Pending free agents and minor leaguers not yet Rule 5 Draft eligible were exempt and did not have to be protected.
• Players with no-trade clauses had to be protected unless they agreed to waive it and be exposed.
• Each team could only lose one player per round (three total).

In their most recent round of expansion, the NHL tightened up the rules so more quality players were available, allowing the expansion franchises to be more competitive right away (it worked like a charm). Maybe MLB would try something similar and cut the initial protection list to 12 players. The existing 30 teams would hate it, but too bad.

For the hell of it, let’s build a 2021 Yankees protection list using the 1992 and 1997 rules. Here’s who I’d protect in a hypothetical expansion draft this offseason:

• Initial 15: Aroldis Chapman (no-trade clause), Gerrit Cole (no-trade clause), Giancarlo Stanton (no-trade clause), Clint Frazier, Deivi Garcia, Chad Green, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Jordan Montgomery, Gary Sanchez, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit
• Next three: Miguel Andujar, Zack Britton, Jonathan Loaisiga
• Next three: Domingo German, Mike King, Adam Ottavino

Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells would be exempt but other notable prospects like Albert Abreu, Estevan Florial, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Nick Nelson, and Miguel Yajure would not. They're eligible for selection.

The decision to exclude Britton from the initial 15 is strategic. I can’t imagine an expansion team would take a 30-something-year-old relief pitcher (albeit an excellent relief pitcher) making $13M a year on a multi-year deal. Britton would have little on-field value to a crummy expansion team and trading that contract would be tough amid the pandemic. Trading Green though? That’d be a piece of cake. He’s cheap, so he’s in my initial 15.

Either way, I think the Yankees would lose Andujar in the first round. Without taking the time to figure out who the other 29 teams would protect, I think Andujar would have a good case to go No. 1 overall in the expansion draft. Good, young, cheap, and controllable position players are the way to go when building a team from the ground up. Too much inherent injury risk with pitching to emphasize arms this early in the process.

Anyway, I’m rambling. Dombrowski’s comments and the fact he left the Nashville group strongly suggest MLB will not expand anytime soon even though there are billions -- billions -- to be made. That’s too bad. As a casual hockey fan, it’s been blast following the recent expansions, and MLB expansion would be way more fun. I can’t imagine MLB will go much longer without expansion. The league is ready for it. It’s overdue, if anything.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Drew Henson. By request, this week’s random Yankee was a two-sport can’t miss prospect who missed in both sports. Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Henson was straight out of central casting. He was an honor roll student at his Michigan high school, a star basketball player, the top quarterback recruit in the country, and he set the high school career records for home runs (70) and RBI (290). Henson had the athletic frame, raw tools, and work ethic that scouts loved. Everything pointed toward stardom.

If anything, Henson was too good. The NFL was a legitimate option -- he was considered a potential No. 1 draft pick at one point -- and that scared MLB teams away come the 1998 draft. The Yankees could afford to throw money at Henson and roll the dice on an elite talent, so they grabbed him in the third round. He was the 97th overall pick.

"He's a special player, no doubt," Brian Cashman told CBS News after the draft. "He has a bright future if he chooses the path of baseball, like we hope he will."

The Yankees paid Henson a $2M signing bonus -- because he was a two-sport player, they were allowed to pay the bonus out across five years -- and promised another $2.7M whenever he quit football to play baseball full-time. The team agreed to let Henson play baseball during the summer and football at the University of Michigan in the fall.

"We will talk on a yearly basis about him becoming a full-time baseball player," Mark Newman, then the Yankees farm director, told CBS News. "(But) we will not get into a situation where we're trying to pressure him on a daily basis."

After signing, Henson reported to the rookie Gulf Coast League and went 12-for-38 (.316) with three doubles and a home run in 10 games. That fall, he served as Tom Brady’s backup with the Wolverines, throwing for 254 yards with three touchdowns and one interception as a freshman. He appeared in eight of Michigan’s 13 games in 1998.

The Yankees were very aggressive with Henson in 1999. Despite limited baseball experience, they sent him to the High-A Florida State League as a 19-year-old, and he hit .280/.345/.480 with 12 doubles and 13 home runs in only 69 games. He also played a fine third base and was more than three years younger than the average player in the league.

“I was stunned by how well he played with such limited experience,” Newman told Joel Sherman at the time. “He came in a prospect and left something much more than that.”

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Henson the No. 24 prospect in the game following the 1999 season and the No. 7 prospect in a stacked Yankees system. Here’s a piece of their scouting report (subs. req’d):

Aside from having only average speed, it would be hard to exaggerate Henson's overall tools. He has enormous power potential and bat speed, and enough arm strength to throw 70-yard passes or 95-mph fastballs … Henson represents a very high-risk, high-return type of gamble, the type that the Yankees can afford and don't mind taking. One thing is certain--he will have a longer career in pinstripes than John Elway did.

(Here’s our RAB Retro Week post on Elway’s brief baseball career with the Yankees.)

As planned, Henson returned to Michigan in the fall and entered into a quarterback platoon with Brady. Brady played the first quarter, Henson played the second quarter, and whoever was better then played the second half. Brady took over as the full-time starter eight games into the season. In nine games as a sophomore, Henson threw for 546 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.

The Yankees sent Henson back to High-A Tampa to begin 2000 but only to keep him in the warm weather. He went 7-for-21 (.333) with one homer in five games, then was bumped up to Double-A Norwich. In 59 games with Norwich, Henson hit .287/.347/.439 with seven homers. He was only 20 and more than four years younger than the average Eastern League player that season.

“You feel as strong about Drew Henson as you can about any player,” Cashman told Sherman that spring. “There is no certainty in prospecting in baseball. But you have a feeling with this player that there is gold in them thar mountains. He has the ability and makeup and desire that is off the charts.”

Two years into the experiment, Henson’s baseball career was going as well as anyone could have reasonably hoped. He was playing well and drawing rave reviews. The Yankees, however, were in the middle of a dynasty and in need of a starting pitcher, so, at the 2000 trade deadline, Cashman sent Henson to the Reds for random Yankee Denny Neagle. The full trade:

• Yankees get: Neagle, Mike Frank
• Reds get: Henson, Jackson Melian, Brian Reith, random Yankee Ed Yarnall

"We have a chance to three-peat -- at least a chance to try to make that happen,” Cashman told the Associated Press after the trade. “Now's the time to make a stand and go for it.”

"Henson is the wild card in the deal," Reds then-GM Jim Bowden told the Associated Press. "If in the future he plays Major League Baseball, I think in the end this is a real good deal for the Reds. If he does play football, I still think it's a good deal considering the circumstances."

Henson appeared in 16 games with Cincinnati’s Double-A affiliate following the trade and went 11-for-64 (.172) with one homer. He struck out 25 times and drew four walks. Overall, Henson hit .266/.322/.429 with 19 doubles and nine homers in 80 minor league games in 2000. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him the 14th best prospect in baseball after the season.

Back on campus in the fall, Henson took over as Michigan’s starter as a junior -- Brady graduated and was never heard from again -- and threw for 2,146 yards with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions in nine games around a foot injury. On Nov. 18th, 2000, Henson and No. 19 ranked Michigan beat No. 12 Ohio State in Columbus. He threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns in the 38-26 win, and ran for a touchdown as well. The Wolverines have not won a game in Columbus since.

“To come in here and have 90-something-thousand people hate you and boo you, it’s a feeling you only have a few times in your life,” Henson told the Toledo Blade after the game. “I’ll remember this day forever.”

Henson’s football success spooked the Reds -- he had major NFL draft hype at the time -- so they put him on the trade market. That led to a trade back to the Yankees. On March 21st, 2001, the Reds sent Henson back to the Yankees for outfielders Michael Coleman and Wily Mo Pena. He spent only eight months and 16 minor league games in Cincinnati’s system.

"We were at such a time last year where we needed a starting pitcher," Joe Torre told the Associated Press following the trade. "When you're with the Yankees, the future is always now, but we were fortunate enough to have the future be now and then tomorrow again in getting him back."

The Yankees were ready to buy Henson away from football and Henson was ready to commit to baseball full-time. Four days after the trade, Henson signed a six-year contract worth $17M that paid him a $1M signing bonus, $1M each in 2001 and 2002, $2M in 2003, $2.2M in 2004, $3.8M in 2005, and $6M in 2006. The contract also prohibited him from playing football.

"To me, there would be no greater goal than to help win a World Series for the New York Yankees. I will keep memories of the University of Michigan close to my heart,” Henson told the Associated Press after signing the contract. “I wanted to prove I could be a great quarterback, and to this point I have … My goal is to get to New York as soon as possible."

Henson, who was still only 21 at the time, spent most of 2001 with Triple-A Columbus and he struggled greatly, hitting .222/.249/.367 with 11 homers in 71 games around a broken wrist (he was hurt on a hit-by-pitch). Because facing high level pitching wasn’t hard enough, Henson also had to contend with boos during home games. Fans weren’t about to forgive him for beating Ohio State a year earlier.

“I expected a few boos,” Henson told Lucas Sullivan early that season. “I did my job playing football. The goal was to win and I did that. I hope fans realize that playing quarterback for the Wolverines is a thing of the past.”

Despite his struggles in 2001, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Henson the No. 9 prospect in baseball going into 2002 -- he was one spot ahead of Mark Teixeira -- and the No. 1 prospect in New York’s farm system. Here's a snippet of their updated scouting report (subs. req’d):

Henson has special power potential. His raw power rates near 80 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, and he has launched mammoth, 500-foot blasts since he was a high school freshman … He's a unique physical specimen, with unusual athleticism for his size. He's not ready to play third base in the majors yet but has the tools to be an above-average defender. He has plus-plus arm strength and soft hands. He lost valuable experience by splitting his time between two sports, and it shows most in his pitch recognition and plate discipline … Henson has a chance to be a franchise player because his work ethic and intelligence are as outstanding as his talent.

Going into 2001, the unspoken plan was to ride out the final year of Scott Brosius’ contract and plug Henson in at third base in 2002. Henson’s poor season threw a wrench into things, so Robin Ventura was brought in to buy time. Henson returned to Triple-A in 2002 and was better but still not good: .240/.301/.435 with 18 homers and a 29.0% strikeout rate in 128 games.

Because he was already on the 40-man roster, the Yankees brought Henson to the big leagues as a September call-up. He made his MLB debut as a pinch-runner on Sept. 5th, 2002, pinch-ran again five days later, then got his first at-bat as a pinch-hitter at the end of a blowout loss to the White Sox on Sept. 14th. World Series hero Damaso Marte struck him out on four pitches.

Henson made little progress in his third year at Triple-A in 2003. He hit .234/.291/.412 with 14 home runs and a 22.7% strikeout rate, and his continued struggles prompted the Yankees to trade for Aaron Boone at the deadline. Henson again received a Sept. call-up and again played sparingly. His first three big league appearances that year:

• Sept. 6th: Played third base in the ninth inning of a blowout loss
• Sept. 9th: Pinch-ran and scored what proved to be the game-winning run
• Sept. 24th: Pinch-hit in the ninth inning of a blowout loss

On Sept. 26th, Henson made his first MLB start in the third-to-last game of the season. He went 0-for-3 and was removed for a pinch-hitter with runners on the corners and two outs in the eighth inning of a tie game (Nick Johnson flew out and the Yankees eventually lost the game).

Two days later, on the final day of the season, Henson made his second and final MLB start. He recorded his first and only MLB hit that day, a ground ball single back up the middle against Eric DuBose. Here’s the video. Henson went 1-for-3 that day and 1-for-9 in his big league career. He did score three runs thanks to those pinch-running opportunities.

As Henson struggled from 2001-03, speculation that he would return to football was rampant. It didn’t help that the Houston Texans selected him in the sixth round of the 2003 NFL draft. They knew he was committed to baseball, but it gave them control of his NFL rights. The Texans took a shot in the dark in case Henson changed his mind down the road.

“I am under contract to the Yankees for three more years, and (baseball) is what I chose to do,” Henson told George King in Sept. 2003. “It’s a long process and I would have liked a better season than the numbers I finished up with … I haven’t made a decision about the future. That’s all stuff we have to do.”

Henson made a decision about his future that offseason. He spent the winter working on his football skills at his agent’s facility in Florida and, in February 2004, he came to an agreement with the Yankees that ended his baseball career. Henson stuck with his decision even though Boone hurt his knee that month, creating an opening at third base. He forfeited the $12M remaining on his contract.

"I am pleased to announce that I will be pursuing a career with the NFL," Henson said in a statement at the time. "I have truly enjoyed playing professional baseball, but after a great deal of thought and discussions with the people closest to me, I have decided to make football my career."

The Texans had 2002 No. 1 pick David Carr at quarterback and did not intend to keep Henson. They held a workout and showcased him for other teams on Feb. 12th, then traded him to the Dallas Cowboys for a third round pick a few weeks later. Dallas gave Henson an eight-year contract that paid him the league minimum all eight years, but included massive roster bonuses.

Henson’s NFL career never went anywhere. He appeared in seven games with the Cowboys in 2004 and went 10-for-18 passing with 78 yards, then was inactive as the third string quarterback in all 16 games in 2005. In 2006, Henson was loaned to the Rhein Fire of NFL Europe, where he finished among the league leaders in yards (1,321) and touchdowns (10).

The Cowboys waived Henson later that year and a stint with the Minnesota Vikings in 2007 went nowhere. He signed with the Detroit Lions in 2008, appeared in two games and went 1-for-2 passing. The Lions went 0-16 that year and selected Matt Stafford with the No. 1 pick in the 2009 draft. They released Henson a few days later and, at age 29, his NFL career was over. He went 11-for-20 passing with 98 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

Henson’s career came full circle in 2012. He spent two years calling college football games for ESPN after his playing career ended, then he rejoined the Yankees. In 2012, Henson helped coach Instructional League, then he spent 2013-14 serving as the hitting coach for the rookie Gulf Coast League affiliate. He then spent another few years as a scout with the Yankees.

"I was expecting to still be playing one sport or the other," Henson told Jon Schwartz about his life as a scout in 2006. "But in the last 10 years, you get older, you get to a different angle of life. You start to mature and have perspective. It became, 'Okay, I've had these experiences. Now I'm in my early 30s. What can I use these experiences for in my next part of life?'"

Henson is no longer with the Yankees and, as of this past January, he was trying to get back into football, according to Angelique Chengelis. Ultimately, Henson’s playing careers flopped because splitting his time between two sports robbed him of crucial development time. Earlier this year he told Sherman he believes his football skills were better than his baseball skills, but by time he was ready to commit to football, it was too late.

“I am (at peace with my career),” Henson told Sherman. “You do go through, ‘Why am I 29 years old and not playing any longer?’ … Every step along the way, I felt I made the right decision with the information that I had. But what I lacked was being patient and letting the process play out. I learned that as I got older ... I would never have thought I would fail to accomplish what I did. Again, that’s life. And I am a lot tougher because of it.”

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Giants signed John Brebbia, one of my favorite under-the-radar free agents, to a one-year deal worth $800,000 that matches his 2021 arbitration projection, reports Kerry Crowley. Brebbia had Tommy John surgery in June and will likely miss next season, though he'll remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player through 2023, and is a rock solid middle relief option. San Francisco will pay Brebbia to rehab in 2021 and hope to reap the rewards in 2022 and 2023. Smart team does smart thing. I was hoping the Yankees would sign Brebbia, though I suppose I understand not wanting to tie up a 40-man roster spot on an injured player throughout the offseason. Alas ... ESPN released their 2021 Sunday Night Baseball schedule last week and the Yankees are currently scheduled for four games: July 4th vs. Mets, July 15th vs. Red Sox, July 18th vs. Red Sox, and Sept. 12th at Mets. That July 15th game is the Thursday after the All-Star break. MLB has played a single “second half kick-off” game that Thursday the last few years and the Yankees are stuck playing it next year. That means their All-Star break will be three days rather than four. The players must hate it. Anyway, this is all subject to change because of the pandemic. That’s the tentative schedule though … And finally, MLB.com has released their top 100 2021 draft prospects. As always, the scouting reports and whatnot are completely free. Here’s a super early top 10 mock draft. The Yankees hold the No. 20 selection and they’re locked into that pick. They can’t move up or back or give it up as part of free agent compensation. Long, long way to go between now and the draft, but it’s never too early to start eyeballing prospects.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)