December 4th, 2020: Non-Tenders, Schwarber, McCann, Brantley, Garcia, Mailbag

The Winter Meetings are next week. Did you know that? Really snuck up on me. The Winter Meetings will be held virtually this year, so I’m a bit worried it’ll feel like every other week of the offseason because executives aren’t meeting face-to-face. Then again, the rumor hounds will probably make it feel like the Winter Meetings because chasing rumors is what they do. We’ll see. Here are today’s thoughts.

1. Love me non-tender. The non-tender deadline came and went Wednesday and it was not the bloodbath we all expected. Fifty-nine players were non-tendered, which is the most in recent memory, though not a crazy increase. It simply continues the recent trend. There were 25 non-tenders in 2017, 41 in 2018, 53 in 2019, and now 59 in 2020.

There were more “pre-tender” deals this year, however. Fifty-nine, in fact, up from 30 last year. The vast majority of those pre-tender deals were below salary projections, which is the entire point. Clubs leveraged the threat of a non-tender into a smaller raise than projected. Some players, including Orlando Arcia and Omar Narvaez, even accepted (small) pay cuts to avoid a non-tender.

Anyway, the free agent market is a little more robust now and hopefully that gets the hot stove moving a little bit because folks, this offseason has been capital-B boring. I’m ready for some trades and signings and rumors. Let’s break down the non-tender deadline and what it means for the Yankees.

Holder non-tendered

The Yankees did indeed non-tender a right-handed reliever prior to the deadline. It just wasn’t the righty reliever I expected. Ben Heller remains and Jonathan Holder was non-tendered. He was projected to make $900.000 next year, so this move doesn’t save the Yankees that much money. Seems this was performance-related more than anything.

Holder, 27, had a fine 2018 season, posting a 3.14 ERA (3.04 FIP) with solid strikeout (22.1%) and walk (7.0%) rates in 66 innings. The last two years have been rough though (5.86 ERA and 4.71 FIP), and relievers without overpowering stuff have a small margin for error. Holder is now free to sign with another team and grow out his hair out again (photo via Clarion Ledger).

The Yankees could re-sign Holder to a minor league contract, though you have to think he’ll look around for a 40-man spot and a clearer path to the MLB bullpen. Six of the eight bullpen spots are set (Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga, Adam Ottavino), leaving two spots for Heller, Albert Abreu, Brooks Kriske, Nick Nelson, and others.

The Holder non-tender leaves the Yankees with one open 40-man roster spot, which they’ll fill eventually. Maybe they’ll make a Rule 5 Draft pick next week? Would be their first since 2011. I doubt that. That spot will eventually go to DJ LeMahieu or his replacement, or Masahiro Tanaka or his replacement, whoever they acquire first.

Cessa and Heller pre-tendered

The Yankees worked out pre-tender deals with Cessa and Heller prior to Wednesday’s deadline, suggesting the team took “sign this deal or we’ll non-tender you” stances with each player. They might’ve done the same with Holder, and he opted to test free agency rather than accept what he felt was a below-market deal. To each his own.

According to the Associated Press, Cessa gets $1.05M next season, up from $895,000 last year and a tick below his $1.1M projection. Heller signed a split contract that will pay him $625,000 in the big leagues and $225,000 in the minors (he has a minor league option remaining). He made $555,000 at the MLB level this past year and was projected for $700,000 next year.

Cessa’s and Heller’s contracts are right in line with their projections. A tick under but within the MLBTR model’s margin of error, and besides, this is a weird arbitration year and that margin of error figures to be larger than usual. Plus the pre-tender deals suggest they were worried about being non-tendered and perhaps took less to get a deal done now.

The Yankees still have eight arbitration-eligible players to sign: Green, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Jordan Montgomery, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, and Gio Urshela. The salary filing deadline is Jan. 15th and hearings will take place throughout February. As always, bet against a hearing with anyone. Most players sign before the filing deadline.

Other notable non-tenders

A couple dozen players around the league were non-tendered and plenty figure to interest the Yankees. We’ll get to Kyle Schwarber in a minute. He deserves his own section. Here are a few other non-tenders (listed alphabetically) who caught my eye or are worth discussing given their potential fit with the Yankees.

RHP Archie Bradley. Good high-leverage reliever who I think fits best as the No. 3 or 4 option in a contender’s bullpen than as the No. 1 or 2 guy, which is where the Yankees could slot him in. Bradley is the non-tendered reliever everyone wants their favorite team to sign. Not much to say here other than the Reds are cheap for non-tendering him over a $4.7M projected salary.

RHP John Brebbia. Former Yankees draft pick John Brebbia, that is. The Yankees drafted him in the 30th round in 2011, he spent two and a half years in the low minors, then was released after the 2013 season. Brebbia played two years in independent ball before hooking on with the Cardinals in 2016. A year later he was in the big leagues.

Brebbia, 30, was quite good from 2018-19: 3.14 ERA (3.09 FIP) with 28.7% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 123.1 innings. He’s a mid-90s fastball, mid-80s slider reliever with good spin rates who has held his own against lefties in his big league career, albeit in a fairly limited sample. Here’s some video.

The pandemic injury monster got Brebbia and he had Tommy John surgery in June, so he is likely to miss all of 2021. The Cardinals non-tendered him rather than pay a projected $800,000 next year. Brebbia is under team control through 2023, so sign him, rehab him in 2021, and the potential reward is two years of a solid reliever in 2022 and 2023.

The Yankees have avoided the “sign an injured player and rehab him” market in recent years, at least on big league contracts. Also, they just non-tendered a healthy Jonathan Holder over $900,000 or so. Would they pay Brebbia something like $800,000 to rehab next year? I doubt it. Maybe they could convince him to take a minor league deal? I think it’s worth investigating.

C Curt Casali. The Yankees did not non-tender Gary Sanchez because they are not morons, and now they have to fill out the rest of their catching depth chart, which looks something like this:

1. Gary Sanchez
2. Kyle Higashioka
3. <null set>

They’re real thin behind the plate. Casali, 32, is a three true outcomes hitter -- nearly 40% of his plate appearances have been a homer, walk, or strikeout the last three years -- who has rated about average as a pitch-framer and defensively overall. He’s not a star or anything, but he’s probably too good to have to settle for a minor league deal. I’d call anyway.

OF David Dahl. Bradley is the non-tendered reliever everyone wants their favorite team to sign and Dahl is the non-tendered hitter everyone wants their favorite team to sign. He’s a 26-year-old former top prospect who had a miserable 2020 (10 wRC+!) but was great from 2017-19 (.297/.345/.521 and 111 wRC+). He even went to the All-Star Game in 2019.

The numbers suggest Dahl can be an above-average hitter and he is a lefty hitter, something the Yankees could use to balance out the lineup. He's an average exit velocity guy, an average defender, and he doesn't hit lefties all that well, plus he never stays healthy. The poor guy is hurt every year. The injury catalog:

• 2013: Torn hamstring.
• 2014: Healthy!
• 2015: Had his spleen removed after an outfield collision.
• 2016: Healthy!
• 2017: Stress reaction in rib.
• 2018: Broken foot.
• 2019: Ankle sprain.
• 2020: Back soreness and shoulder strain.

The Rockies have no idea what they’re doing -- “There are a good number of outfielders we have currently on the roster we hope to get playing time,” GM Jeff Bridich told Nick Groke after the Dahl non-tender (ZiPS projects Charlie Blackmon as the team’s only +1 WAR outfielder) -- and getting players away from incompetent teams is always appealing. I would not give Dahl a full-time outfield spot but I’d happily give him Mike Tauchman’s spot and see what’s what.

I don't think the Yankees aren’t a great fit for Dahl though. They can’t -- or shouldn’t -- guarantee him a regular lineup spot and he needs to play. He’s trying to show he can be an everyday player, not settle for being a role player on a contender. I guess the Yankees could overpay to make sure they get him, but that’s not a thing they do with non-stars. I expect Dahl to go elsewhere (Cleveland?).

LHP Carlos Rodon. Injuries have derailed the No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft. He had Tommy John surgery in May 2019 and shoulder problems in 2020, and, when he was on the mound this past season, his velocity was down into the mid-80s at times. His slider though? It’s still a beauty (video link):

Rodon turns only 28 next week, so I’m sure he still wants to give it a go as a starter. He was a league average starter from 2015-18 (4.01 ERA and 4.29 FIP), so it’s not crazy to think he can get back to that level with good health, and maybe even get better. Personally, I would be very interested to see him as a Brad Hand/Andrew Miller type reliever who throws 60% sliders.

OF Eddie Rosario. Pretty much everything I wrote about Dahl applies to Rosario, except Rosario is far more established. He has the lefty power the Yankees lack, but they shouldn’t displace anyone in their current outfield to sign him, and I’m not sure why Rosario would accept a reduced role with the Yankees. He’s 29! He’s signing with a team that will give him a full-time outfield spot no questions asked (i.e. not the Yankees).

2. Schwarber as a free agent target. As expected, the Cubs non-tendered Kyle Schwarber rather than pay him $8M or so through arbitration next year. It has been about 38 hours since the non-tender deadline and I’m surprised we haven’t seen a legitimate “the Yankees are interested in Schwarber” rumor yet. Schwarber, not Gleyber Torres, was the player they wanted in the Aroldis Chapman trade in 2016 (when Schwarber was out with a torn ACL!), remember. The Yankees later settled for Torres. Good thing, huh?

Schwarber turns 28 in March and he had a miserable 2020 season, hitting .188/.308/.393 (90 wRC+) with a 29.5% strikeout rate and a 13.4% walk rate. In 2019, he authored a career best .250/.339/.531 (120 wRC+) batting line with 38 home runs. 2020 was a weird year and I am willing to give every player a mulligan. If (when?) the Yankees sign Schwarber, they’ll hope to get the 2019 version. He’s one of those “put him in Yankee Stadium and he’ll hit 40 homers!” guys (remind me again the last time that happened?*) with big exit velocities.

The walks and lefty power are nice. The downside is Schwarber can’t hit lefties (career 75 wRC+) and he’s a very poor outfielder, which is a problem because he’s primarily a left fielder, and left field is the biggest part of Yankee Stadium. Truth be told, Schwarber is a left-handed platoon DH, potentially a very good one, but the Yankees already have a better player at DH.

That doesn’t mean the Yankees couldn’t make room for Schwarber, of course. Assuming a 26-man roster next year, the four-man bench would include a backup catcher (Kyle Higashioka?), a backup infielder (Tyler Wade?), and a backup outfielder (Brett Gardner or Mike Tauchman)? That fourth spot could go to any type of player, including a Schwarber. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are no strangers to the injured list, so at-bats will be available.

There are two things about this though. One, Schwarber probably wouldn’t sign with the Yankees to be a role player who starts 2-3 times a week. He is a soon-to-be 28-year-old trying to turn his career around. His priority is playing and playing a lot, and finding a good situation that allows him to thrive (the White Sox are an obvious fit). Platoon DHs are not exactly in high demand these days. If Schwarber repeats 2020 in 2021, he’ll be looking at a minor league contract come 2022.

And two, the Yankees would not sign Schwarber to be a role player who starts 2-3 times a week. They’d sign him to play every game against righties, which means pushing Clint Frazier aside again, something I’m sure the Yankees would do. Even this past year, they still kept Clint at arm’s length. He was hitting .306/.422/.595 on Sept. 19th, then went 1-for-20 to close out the regular season, and found himself on the bench in October. 20 at-bats!

I am firmly Team Clint over Team Schwarber. I think Frazier will be the better player (better hitter, better defender, etc.) next year and over the next five years and I honestly don’t think it’s all that close. Hell, even with the inconsistent MLB playing time and the fact he's at the platoon advantage less often as a righty hitter, Frazier (career 114 wRC+) has been Schwarber’s offensive equal (113 wRC+). Imagine what he could do with a similar leash.

The Yankees could trade Frazier for a pitcher, which is a fine idea, but they’ve been trying to do that for years now and nothing’s come together. Teams aren’t eager to give away pitching depth and it’s a heck of a lot easier to find a corner outfielder in free agency than it is a quality starting pitcher. Also, Clint’s trade value isn’t great because he’s been buried in the minors most of the last three years. The Yankees haven’t exactly maximized him.

What I think doesn’t matter. The Yankees could use a lefty bat and they loved Schwarber once upon a time, so much so that they were willing to trade for him while he was rehabbing a major injury, and I don’t think their interest has waned. Certainly not enough to dissuade them from pursuing him entirely. I expect a serious pursuit. Whether Schwarber sees the Yankees as the best fit for him is another matter, but I gotta say, this feels inevitable. The Yankees will find a way to make it work.

* The only time it's happened is Curtis Granderson, and he had to completely overhaul his swing midseason in order to get to the 40-homer power the next year. The “he’ll hit 40 homers in Yankee Stadium!” trope is overplayed.

3. Hot stove rumors. There have been a few Yankees-related rumors in recent days. Nothing groundbreaking, just the usual “they’re in on this guy” stuff unless you count secondhand speculation like “a rival executive could see the Yankees signing Corey Kluber.” Let’s break the rumors down.

Yankees among teams in on McCann

This was inevitable. Jon Heyman reports the Yankees are among the teams with interest in free agent catcher James McCann (no relation to Brian). Depending how you feel about Yadier Molina at this point in his career, McCann is arguably the best non-Realmuto catcher on the free agent market. (For what it’s worth, FanGraphs projections say he is tied for fifth best.)

McCann, 30, broke out after joining the White Sox two years ago, going from a .240/.288/.366 (75 wRC+) line in five years with the Tigers to .276/.334/.474 (116 wRC+) in two years with the ChiSox. In 2019, McCann told David Laurila he attributes his breakout to “staying within myself and not trying to do too much” and

…

…

…

Sorry, nodded off during that boringly cliche answer. I can’t find any reports on a swing change, but McCann did experience an exit velocity uptick with the White Sox -- funny enough, all the swing change reports date back to his bad years with Detroit -- and the numbers don’t lie. He averaged 87.9 mph off the bat with Detroit and 90.2 mph with Chicago. Something changed.

Let’s assume for a second McCann’s offense is for real, even though he went from a 133 wRC+ in the first half of 2019 to an 83 wRC+ in the second half, after the White Sox started playing him everyday, then they replaced him with Yasmani Grandal last offseason. What about his defense? The numbers say it is middle of the pack. Among the 68 catchers to catch 600 innings since 2018:

Defensive Runs Saved (per 1,000 innings)
24. Danny Jansen: +3.6
25. J.T. Realmuto: +3.4
26. James McCann: +3.3
27. Yan Gomes: +3.0
28. Will Smith: +2.9
(43. Gary Sanchez: -1.2)

Framing Runs (per 1,000 innings)
45. Wilson Ramos: -4.8
46. Bryan Holaday: -5.1
47. James McCann: -5.4
48. Mitch Garver: -6.2
49. Francisco Cervelli: -6.3
(37. Gary Sanchez: -2.9)

As Matt Kelly explains, McCann made a huge improvement with his framing this year. Statcast says he went -15 extra strikes in 2019 to +2 in 2020. Then again, he went from -11 in 2017 to -1 in 2018 to -15 in 2019, so big year-to-year swings seem to come with the territory. Is the framing improvement real, or is this just a guy who had a few good weeks?

For what it’s worth, McCann worked with former big league catcher and manager (and Yankee) Jerry Narron last offseason -- “Up to this point in my career I’ve never really had anyone who was able to explain to me why the scoring worked the way that it did as far as the framing metrics go and how to improve. I’ll definitely be monitoring it closer than I ever have,” he told James Fegan (subs. req’d) -- so maybe the improvement is real. He worked at it.

Some team is going to sign McCann to be their starting catcher -- MLBTR projects two years and $20M, FanGraphs crowdsourcing two years and $12M -- and whichever team signs him will do so believing all the improvement is real. They’ll believe the offense is real and the framing improvement is here to stay. Catching in this league is so bad that it’s worth the roll of the dice.

The Yankees did not non-tender Gary Sanchez, and while they could still trade him, it’s unlikely and I think that makes a McCann signing unlikely. I gotta think McCann is looking for a starting job and the largest payday possible, and not necessarily in that order. I’d be cool with signing McCann to replace Kyle Higashioka. There’s just no reason to believe the Yankees will spend significant money on a backup catcher. They’ve never done it*, even when it made sense.

* Austin Romine’s $1.8M salary in 2019, his final arbitration year, was the most the Yankees spent on a backup catcher since paying Jose Molina $2.125M in 2009.

Yankees have been in contact with Brantley

The Yankees are among the teams that have been in contact with free agent outfielder Michael Brantley, reports Buster Olney. I have a hard time thinking the Yankees will spend what it takes to sign Brantley and DJ LeMahieu, so I'm guessing they're looking at Brantley as a possible Plan B. The fact they don't play the same position complicates things.

Brantley, 33, is one of the best hitters in the sport. He put up a .300/.364/.476 (134 wRC+) batting line in 2020 and that was right in line with 2019 (133 wRC+) and 2018 (124 wRC+). The guy is a hitting machine. He wakes and rakes. If you need something to worry about it, Brantley posted his highest strikeout (15.0%) and swing-and-miss (5.5%) rates in years in 2020. Then again, that's still way better than the MLB averages (23.4% and 11.4%).

The positional fit is a problem. Brantley is a subpar defensive left fielder and he's not going to get better with age, so he's inching toward full-time DH territory. Also, signing Brantley would mean pushing Clint Frazier to the bench or Triple-A, or trading him for pitching, which is easier said than done. Brantley is a great, great hitter, but I think LeMahieu's a better fit for the team's needs, even if he is right-handed.

Yankees gauging market for Andujar, Frazier, Tauchman

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have “at least tested the waters” on the trade market for Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, and Mike Tauchman. This one falls into the “no duh” rumor bucket. It never hurts to see what’s out there and holy crap, if the Yankees can get something of value for Tauchman, they should pull the trigger. He is eminently replaceable.

Frazier is penciled into left field at the moment, though there is a long way to go until Opening Day, and I won’t feel comfortable saying he is the starting left fielder until Brett Gardner and Kyle Schwarber are wearing different uniforms. Andujar has no obvious role beyond “Giancarlo Stanton injury replacement,” and hey, based on the last few years, he might get 400-something at-bats next season. This rumors falls under “business as usual.”

No “real traction” to Voit trade

I traded Luke Voit as part of my Offseason Plan but trading the reigning MLB home run leader “does not seem to have generated real traction in the front office,” according to Bryan Hoch. In my defense, I traded Voit for Francisco Lindor, so it’s not like I gave him away. There have been no trade rumors involving Voit this winter. Just general “maybe they could sell high” speculation.

My guess is the Yankees are taking a “we’re not eager to move him but we will listen” approach with Voit this offseason, which is their approach with most players. Brian Cashman wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t at least listen. The Yankees have resisted putting Andujar at first base thus far, but he could be a candidate to replace Voit should some team make a big offer. The smart money is on Voit staying.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Deivi Garcia made his winter ball debut Tuesday night. His line: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K on 34 pitches. Here’s the strikeout. I see Deivi’s going with the beard and blue hair look this offseason. Anyway, the Yankees cleared Garcia to throw 20 innings this winter. Figure he has another 5-6 outings to go as he gets stretched out … According to J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d), MLB is expected to implement a 180-player limit for domestic minor league rosters, up from the 150 they initially proposed. There had previously been no player limit -- the Yankees and other teams would sign dozens of undrafted and international free agents each year and sort through them in Extended Spring Training -- and the 150-player limit would have meant bare bones rosters for the five minor league affiliates (Triple-A, Double-A, High-A, Low-A, rookie). The 180-player limit gives teams a little more flexibility. MLB clubs often use phantom injuries and the injured list as a taxi squad to keep extra players near their minor league affiliates, and that will be able to continue. Either way, they’re losing roster spots because of the minor league contraction plan, they just aren’t losing as many now. Things are slightly less bad now … The Trenton Thunder have hooked on with the new wood bat MLB Draft League, MLB announced. The new six-team league will play a 68-game season and give “draft-eligible players (the) unique opportunity to showcase their abilities and gain exposure to MLB Clubs” leading up to the draft. I suspect it will be mostly mid-range college juniors and seniors -- high schoolers rarely play in these leagues and top prospects aren’t going to risk injury in a summer league -- and wow, that is a pretty big step down for Trenton. From Yankees affiliate (often with rehabbing big leaguers) to some college kids no one knows. Rough. The Yankees dropped Trenton and picked up the independent Somerset Patriots as their Double-A affiliate last month … And finally, the first of what I expect will be many lawsuits has been filed as a result of the minor league contraction plan. The Staten Island Yankees announced they are ceasing operations and are suing MLB and the Yankees to “hold them accountable for false promises.” Here’s the press release. They’re probably going to lose the lawsuit -- MLB surely knew this was coming and is prepared -- but yeah, this is going to get ugly. We’re still waiting for literally anyone on MLB’s side to explain how the contraction plan is good for the sport and not just a naked money grab through reduced costs.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Michael asks: I know much of the fandom will focus on adding Schwarber or Dahl or Mazara as the lefty bat and to replace the Gardner role, but defensively none of them fit. How about replacing Gardy with Jackie Bradley Jr. although it will be Hicks who takes over Gardner's 4th OFer role. Hicks will still get 500+ ABs, while the Yankees add an elite defender in CF and a lefty bat. Thoughts?

Aaron Hicks is way too good a hitter to push into a fourth outfielder’s role -- he’s had a wRC+ in the 120s three times in the last four years, including 2020 -- and the only way he gets 500+ at-bats in that role is Clint Frazier being pushed aside again. I don’t want that. Frazier turned 26 in September. It’s time to play him and see what he can do.

Bradley will never repeat his 2020 offense across a full 162-game season (he’s an established 90 wRC+ guy) but his defense is excellent and it makes him an everyday player on a contender. He’s a No. 9 hitter on a contender, but still a starter for a contender. Putting Bradley in the Brett Gardner role is a waste of his glove and he probably wouldn’t accept that anyway. He’ll go to a team that starts him in center field everyday (Astros? Giants?).

My ideal (realistic) outfield next season is Frazier in left, Hicks in center, and Aaron Judge in right with Brett Gardner as the fourth outfielder who gets spots starts against righties. MLBTR projects Bradley to get two years and $16M. FanGraphs crowdsourcing has him at two years and $20M. That seems like money the Yankees could better spend elsewhere when a good facsimile of Bradley is sitting right there in Gardner.

Brian asks: I feel like the Yankees have no options to get Andujar's bat in the lineup: let him develop at 3B… blocked by Urshela; let him learn 1B or LF … blocked by Voit and Frazier… stick him at DH… blocked by Stanton. Rather than ask for a solution, I have a different question for you - if you were an expansion team GM and had Andujar and a blank canvas, what would you do with him?

I’d gauge Miguel Andujar’s interest in second base. The shift and data driven positioning makes it easier to hide a bad defensive second baseman than ever before, and the shorter throw will help with his inaccurate arm. Andujar’s ability to handle second will come down to the blind double play pivot. If he’s comfortable turning it, then let’s see where this goes.

If Andujar isn’t comfortable with second base, that’s fine. I’d put him at third and let him keep working at it. I’m an expansion team. I’m going to stink for a few years. What do I have to lose? Give Andujar another year at third base, see what’s what, and if it’s still untenable in a few months, then I guess look at first base. The important thing is he plays everyday. He hasn’t done that in two years now and I don’t see how he does it with the Yankees in 2021 barring injuries.

Lisa asks: What happens to Mike Tauchman?

Tauchman is cheap (still pre-arbitration-eligible) and he was very good two years ago, so I have no reason to think he will be anywhere other than on the Yankees’ bench next year. He can play center field and they need a backup center fielder, and Yankee Stadium will help make the most of his left-handed bat. The real Tauchman is something between 2019 and 2020, probably.

I’m not a Tauchman guy, mostly because he can’t hit velocity at a time when every team seems to have 10 guys who throw 95+, but he is a perfectly fine fourth outfielder. Nothing more, nothing else. Limit him to true fourth outfielder duty, meaning 1-2 starts a week, and he’s fine. When he starts three or four times a week, it’s a problem. My preference would be re-signing Brett Gardner and using Tauchman’s roster spot on someone else, but I have no reason to think the Yankees will do that. I expect him to be on the bench in 2021.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)