November 20th, 2020: Cano, Pitching, Lynn, Hall of Fame, Mailbag

The 2020 Yankees Sporcle quiz is out. They sure did use a lot of random players in a 60-game season, huh? I got 40 of 43 but quit with five minutes to go because I’m impatient. I missed three pitchers, one of whom spent most of the year on the MLB roster. Might’ve gotten all three had I stuck it out for the full 10 minutes. Anyway, good luck. Here are today’s thoughts.

1. Cano suspended again. This is such a bummer. Robinson Cano was busted for performance-enhancing drugs again earlier this week. Because he is a repeat offender, he has been suspended 162 games and will miss the entire 2021 season. Cano was suspended 80 games for his first failed test back in 2018. One more positive test and he's banned for life.

The first suspension likely closed the door on his Hall of Fame chances. The second slams the door shut. There’s no chance now. Not with this generation of voters. Manny Ramirez, another two-time PED suspension guy, has topped out at 28.2% of the vote in his four years on the ballot, and his Hall of Fame case is stronger than Cano’s. Robbie’s not getting into Cooperstown and he has no one to blame but himself.

I don’t understand the late-career PED guys (Cano, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, etc.). You’ve already made more money than you could ever spend in a lifetime and your legacy on the field is secure. What are you trying to gain at this point? They just want to be great, I guess. There is also some insecurity -- that desire to please everyone else -- in play too, I imagine.

Peak Cano was outrageously fun and the coolest MFer on the field every game he played, and often the best player on the field too. He was an overqualified role player in 2009 -- Robbie hit .320/.352/.520 (124 wRC+) that year and was the seventh best hitter on the team -- and the Yankees’ best player from 2010-13. Cano is third in WAR among Yankees second baseman.

Anyway, Cano forfeits $24M in salary with the suspension -- it’s actually less than that because he still gets paid for off-days, which is a thing I learned during A-Rod’s suspension in 2014 -- and the Mets clear about $20.25M in payroll next year (the Mariners are on the hook for the rest). Big chunk of change! And how they spend it (if they spend it) could impact the Yankees.

Almost immediately, the speculation began that the Mets could sign DJ LeMahieu to replace Cano at second base and I get it, but I’m not sure that’s realistic. Cano is coming back and the Mets still owe him $40.5M from 2022-23. He’s not going away forever. The Mets could put Jeff McNeil at second, J.D. Davis at third, Brandon Nimmo in left, and stop playing everyone out of position every game.

The Mets have greater needs in center field (hello, George Springer), behind the plate (hello, J.T. Realmuto), and on the mound (hello, Trevor Bauer) than they do at second base. Bauer did say he would only sign one-year contracts once upon a time, right? Wouldn’t taking the Cano money and making Bauer a huge one-year offer make more sense than signing LeMahieu for multiple years?

Of course, Davis stinks at third base, so the Mets could sign LeMahieu and trade Davis for pitching, and upgrade their roster in three ways (offensively, defensively, pitching). Just seems to me that if the Mets are seriously considering LeMahieu, it is something they would have seriously considered with or without Cano. Not sure the suspension changes much.

As far as the Yankees are concerned, the Mets’ true intentions are irrelevant. All that matters is LeMahieu and his agent can better use the Mets as leverage in contract talks with the Yankees now. LeMahieu doesn’t need the Mets to want him. He just needs the Mets to act like they want him, and I’m sure Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson will happily oblige.

The Yankees should re-sign LeMahieu, absolutely, but there’s always a point where you walk away (see: Cano, Robinson). I mean, giving LeMahieu a two-year contract and getting two MVP caliber years in return, then letting some other team pay through the nose for his decline would be a nifty little piece of business. The Rays would be called geniuses for doing it. If the Yankees do it, it’ll be called a disaster.

I’m not convinced the Cano suspension will push the Mets into the mix for LeMahieu. If they go after him, they were probably always going to go after him. This does give LeMahieu and his agent more leverage though, and it could cost the Yankees more to re-sign him. If it does, so be it. I won’t weep for Hal Steinbrenner’s wallet. Get that money, DJ.

The downside is the Yankees are working with limited dollars this offseason -- they went to Game 7 of the ALCS in 2017 and immediately chopped $40M off their 2018 payroll, there’s no way they pass up the opportunity to cut payroll excuse-free this winter -- and every additional dollar they have to pay LeMahieu is a dollar they can’t spend elsewhere.

If that happens, the blame falls on Hal Steinbrenner and no one else. Not LeMahieu, not the Mets, no one. I understand the Yankees didn’t make as much money as they expected this year, but the Mets won’t raise LeMahieu’s 2021 salary tens of millions. Whatever it is, the Yankees will be able to afford it as well as all the other things they need. They’ll just pretend they can’t.

(For what it's worth, Ken Davidoff reports LeMahieu wants to remain in New York, preferably with the Yankees. The Mets are his second choice.)

2. Pitching market taking shape. The free agent starting pitching market is beginning to take shape. Four free agent starters have signed within the last two weeks:

• Robbie Ray, Blue Jays: 1 year, $8M
• Drew Smyly, Braves: 1 year, $11M
• Kevin Gausman, Giants: 1 year, $18.9M (accepted qualifying offer)
• Marcus Stroman, Mets: 1 year, $18.9M (accepted qualifying offer)

The Smyly deal is most interesting because he got about double what I would’ve expected given his injuries and performance the last few seasons. As recently as 2019 he had a 6.24 ERA (6.26 FIP) in 114 innings. Clearly, the Braves bought into his four great starts in September (18 IP, 13 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 5 BB, 31 K) and an uptick in velocity (and strikeouts):

Atlanta has been very aggressive with one-year deals the last few years (Josh Donaldson, Cole Hamels, Marcell Ozuna, etc.) and the $11M salary suggests they believe September Smyly is here to stay. No team wanted Brad Hand at one year and $10M, but one team wanted Smyly at one year and $11M. Can’t say I would’ve predicted that a few weeks ago.

Anyway, Gausman and Stroman accepting the qualifying offer is understandable. Gausman is talented but short on track record, and there’s no guarantee he’d have gotten $18.9M as a free agent, even across multiple years. Stroman opted out of the season and gets a big 2021 salary, and he can test free agency with no draft pick compensation attached next winter. I get it.

The Ray and Smyly contracts are market value or better. Last year’s one-year contracts for free agent starters included Rick Porcello ($10M), Julio Teheran ($9M), and Gausman ($9M). Ray and Smyly are similar pitchers. Talented but with flaws, be it injury or inconsistency or whatever. Two non-elite starters getting market value contracts is good news for free agents, right?

Yes, but there’s a catch, with the catch being it’s still very early in the offseason, and free agents who sign early tend to do so because a) a team met or exceeded their asking price, and/or b) they’re worried about being shut out later in the winter. There figure to be fewer dollars available this offseason, so Ray and Smyly jumped on good offers early. I don’t blame them.

I’m not sure these pitching contracts mean much for the Yankees right now. It’s early, and early offseason contracts rarely reflect the market as a whole. They’re usually outliers and that’s why the players sign them. There are four fewer pitchers on the market though, including two pretty good ones. The top free agent starters by projected 2021 WAR:

1. Trevor Bauer: +3.8 WAR
2. Masahiro Tanaka: +3.1 WAR
3. Kevin Gausman: +2.9 WAR (signed)
4. Marcus Stroman: +2.7 WAR (signed)
5. Charlie Morton: +2.7 WAR
6. Corey Kluber: +2.6 WAR
7. James Paxton: +2.4 WAR
8. Robbie Ray: +2.1 WAR (signed)
9. Drew Smyly: +2.0 WAR (signed)
10. Mike Minor: +1.9 WAR

Two of the top four and four of the top nine free agent starters, at least according to one projection system, are already off the board and it’s not even Thanksgiving. An already thin pitching market is that much thinner, especially since the Kluber and Paxton projections seem optimistic given their serious arm injuries, and Morton might be Rays or retirement.

Supposedly the Yankees are not planning to make any major moves until they know whether DJ LeMahieu is coming back, and re-signing or not re-signing LeMahieu will determine how much money the Yankees can throw at pitching. Waiting for LeMahieu puts them at risk of losing out on players, though I’m not sure that’s much of a risk this winter. Most teams are moving slow.

Unlike last offseason, when Gerrit Cole dictated the timetable because he was a must-have, this free agent pitching class is worth waiting out. With most of the league curbing spending, there are bound to be quality free agents available after the New Year. And, if the market heats up sooner because players get anxious and start jumping on deals, the Yankees can shift gears.

Good for Ray and Smyly turning their 2020s into 2019-20 offseason contracts, and Gausman for doing better than that. I’m not losing sleep over the Yankees missing out on them though, and I don’t think their contracts are an indication the market will be kinder to players than expected. The pitching market is moving, but not in a way that should push the Yankees to act right away.

3. Targeting Lynn. The free agent pitching market is weak and with each passing day I am becoming more convinced the best option is trading for Lance Lynn. He was available at the deadline and the Rangers shot for the moon -- Dave O’Brien says they wanted top prospects Cristian Pache or Drew Waters from the Braves --  and ultimately kept him. Now Lynn’s trade value has gone down simply because the Rangers are trading one postseason run of him, not two.

“We were telling other clubs (the return) would have to be something that was commensurate with how we value him. What he does for us and what he would do for another team in a pennant race and really multiple pennant races,” Rangers GM Jon Daniels told Sam Blum after the trade deadline. “... I would not have been proud of some of those deals (we were offered) if we made them, and I don’t think our fans would have been happy about it, either.”

The Rangers are an under-the-radar rudderless organization. They’ve lost more games than the Pirates -- the Pirates! -- the last four seasons and they have only two players (Lynn and Joey Gallo) who wouldn’t look out of place on a contending team. Maybe four (Kyle Gibson and Nick Solak). They keep trying a quick fix rebuild and it’s not working. Eventually they’ll have to either spend big on free agents to contend, or tear it all down and rebuild. The latter sounds more likely.

“This season is ultimately going to be marked by us moving into a youth movement. Everything we do moving forward is going to revolve around that,” Daniels told Jeff Wilson in September. “Our winter additions are going to look to fit into the roster we are putting together and also fit into the development-minded culture we need to have ... That is going to be 100% of our focus up and down the organization.”

Lynn, 34 in May, made some pitch selection changes after signing with Texas two years ago -- he still throws a ton of fastballs (88% the last two seasons) but is throwing fewer sinkers and more four-seamers and cutters -- and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since. The under-the-hood numbers check out …

… and Lynn has a 3.57 ERA (3.43 FIP) with 27.5% strikeout rate in 292.1 innings the last two years. He’s thrown at least five innings in 45 of his 46 starts with the Rangers and at least six innings in 36 of 46 starts. He provides lots and lots of quality innings, something the Yankees desperately need behind Gerrit Cole. Lynn would slot in as the No. 2 behind Cole very nicely.

The financial terms are outrageously team friendly. Lynn has one year and $8M remaining on his contract, which is what the Blue Jays just gave Robbie Ray. Lynn’s luxury tax hit is a tad higher at $10M, but a) that’s still really team friendly, and b) actual salary figures to matter more to the Yankees now given the pandemic and every team’s cash flow problems.

Lynn is so affordable and the free agent pitching market is so weak that it’s a safe bet there will be (and probably already is) heavy interest in him. This isn’t a Francisco Lindor situation, where his team can’t afford him and only a handful of other teams can afford him, reducing his club’s leverage. If the Rangers trade Lynn, it will be a legitimate baseball trade, not a salary dump.

Surprisingly few starters have been traded one year prior to free agency. Most are traded as rentals at the deadline, or several years out from free agency so their new team gets multiple postseason runs. The rentals are more applicable to Lynn because, again, you’re getting him for just one postseason run. Some potential trade benchmarks:

• Johnny Cueto: Traded for a top 60 global prospect (Brandon Finnegan) and two top 20 organizational prospects (John Lamb and Cody Reed).
• Yu Darvish: Traded for a top 100 global prospect (Willie Calhoun) and two top 30 organizational prospects (A.J. Alexy and Brendan Davis).
• David Price: Traded for a top 20 global prospect (Daniel Norris) and two top 30 organizational prospects (Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt).

Nice consensus there. Want to trade for one postseason run of a top starter? It’ll cost you one stud prospect and two secondary pieces. Lynn’s track record as a top flight starter is shorter than those three guys, plus the Cueto and Price deals were five years ago now (and weren’t made during a pandemic), but that gets us in the ballpark.

The Rangers could ask for Deivi Garcia or Clarke Schmidt (or Jasson Dominguez, for that matter) in a Lynn trade and it would not be unreasonable given recent trades involving similar pitchers with similar team control. I do think there’s merit to trading Schmidt because …

• … the Yankees don’t believe he’s MLB ready, otherwise he would’ve made more than three scattered appearances this year given their pitching needs (also, Aaron Boone recently said Schmidt “probably needs some more seasoning,” according to Brendan Kuty)
• … he’s already had Tommy John surgery and missed time with two bouts of forearm inflammation in 2019, and the best predictor of future injury is past injury
• … he just lost an entire season of development and his career high is the 111.1 innings he threw as a sophomore in college, so he’s still a year or two away from being a 150+ innings guy (Schmidt turns 25 in February)

… but I don’t think the Yankees would trade him for Lynn. I don’t think the Yankees consider Schmidt or Garcia untouchable. I just don’t think the Yankees would trade either of them for one year of any pitcher. (A pitcher with multiple years of control is another matter.)

Texas learned the hard way with Mike Minor that when you have a quality starter and are on the fence about trading him, you should do it sooner rather than later, because trade value can only go down. It rarely goes up. Minor was excellent in 2019 and several teams wanted him. The Rangers kept him, his shoulder started barking in 2020, and his value went in the tank.

The Rangers haven’t exactly knocked it out of the park with their decision-making recently and who knows, maybe they like some prospects in the farm system more than we realize. We’re talking about Garcia and Schmidt, but perhaps the Texas front office really loves Mike King or Albert Abreu or something. Wouldn’t be the first time something like that has happened.

Lynn fits what the Yankees need really well both on the field and on the payroll. He’d provide a ton of quality innings while leaving enough breathing room under the luxury tax threshold (or whatever the payroll limit ends up being) to do other things. The Yankees do have a (brief) history with him too. They know Lynn the person and how he fits into the clubhouse. That could help facilitate a trade or it could close the door completely. Either way, it’s valuable information.

I’m usually a “the Yankees should just spend money on free agents and keep their prospects” guy, but there are very few quality pitching options available, and money is tighter than usual. When most of your prospects just lost a full year of development time and you have to release three teams worth of players because of the minor league contraction plan anyway, there’s no harm in trading a few prospects. You can’t keep ‘em all.

At minimum, the Yankees need to call about Lynn. The competition for him figures to be fierce and maybe that puts the Yankees at a disadvantage given their middle of the pack (or worse) farm system, but they at least have to ask. He’s a very good fit and he appeals to me more than anyone on the free agent market. Lynn might be their best (only?) chance to get an impact starting pitcher this offseason.

(Just FYI, Lynn rejected the $17.4M qualifying offer from the Cardinals in 2017, so he’s not eligible to receive it again. If he gets traded this winter, his next team would not get to recoup a draft pick should he leave as a free agent next offseason. Not a dealbreaker, just something to be aware of.)

4. 2021 Hall of Fame ballot released. Earlier this week MLB and the BBWAA announced the 2021 Hall of Fame ballot. Ballots have been sent out and the 2021 Hall of Fame class will be revealed on Tuesday, January 26th. This year’s ballot is very weak. Here are the 11 newcomers:

• Mark Buehrle
• A.J. Burnett
• Michael Cuddyer
• Dan Haren
• LaTroy Hawkins
• Tim Hudson
• Torii Hunter
• Nick Swisher
• Aramis Ramirez
• Shane Victorino
• Barry Zito

Corey Hart, Aaron Harang, Adam LaRoche, Alex Rios, Grady Sizemore, Dan Uggla, C.J. Wilson, and former Yankee Rafael Soriano are among the players eligible for this year’s Hall of Fame ballot who did not make it through the screening committee. They were deemed unworthy of even appearing on the ballot.

Anyway, the 11 newcomers to the ballot all had long and distinguished careers but none are even borderline Hall of Fame candidates in my opinion. Can’t see any getting in. Not this year and not ever. The most notable holdovers on the ballot are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling, all of whom are in their ninth year on the ballot.

Bonds and Clemens have seen their support stagnate in the 60% range the last few years and there’s little chance they jump over the 75% threshold needed for induction. Schilling was at 70% last year and, historically, once you reach 70%, you get in the next year. Pretty good chance he will be the only player voted into the Hall of Fame this year. That speech should be a doozy.

Now that the logjam has started to clear out, I think Omar Vizquel stands to gain the most. He’s gone from 37.0% to 42.8% to 52.6% in his three years on the ballot, a strong upward trend that puts him on track for induction within three years. I don’t think Vizquel was a Hall of Fame player but I lost the will to argue about Hall of Fame selections a long time ago.

As for the Yankees, the only notable player on the ballot is Andy Pettitte. He’s the only guy on the ballot who would unquestionably go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee. Clemens would go in as a Red Sox and Gary Sheffield would go in as a, uh, Marlin? I guess? Sheffield was at 30.5% last year and this is his seventh year on the ballot. He’s not getting in at this pace anyway.

Pettitte was at 9.9% and 11.3% in his first two years on the ballot, so he’s going to have to start making big gains and soon to have a real chance at this. He’ll need to jump to 30% or so this year, then 40% next year, then 50% the year after that just to have a chance. That’s possible with an unclogged ballot. Just not sure it’ll happen given the performance-enhancing drug thing.

The next player scheduled to join the ballot with a chance to go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee is Alex Rodriguez, and he’s not getting in. Bonds and Clemens never tested positive or served a suspension or admitted anything and they’re not getting in. A-Rod is an admitted cheat who served a year-long suspension. Can’t see it despite an overwhelmingly great career.

A-Rod will join the ballot next winter. After him, the next notable Yankee to join the ballot will be CC Sabathia. He won’t be eligible until the 2024-25 offseason, so that’s still a ways away. I think Sabathia is a Hall of Famer but it’s not a slam dunk. Hell, you could make a decent argument that Buehrle and Hudson should be Hall of Famers if Sabathia is:

The difference between the three is their peak. Buehrle and Hudson were very good for a very long time whereas Sabathia was one of the game’s best pitchers for a seven-year stretch from 2006-12. His numbers during those years (min. 700 innings for rate stats):

• 1,591.2 innings (1st)
• 3.14 ERA (6th)
• 3.20 FIP (6th)
• 1,453 strikeouts (1st)
• +38.4 bWAR (2nd)
• +40.0 fWAR (2nd)

Buehrle and Hudson never did anything like that, as good as they were. Anyway, I’m rambling. The 2021 Hall of Fame ballot has been released (here’s the entire ballot) and in all likelihood Schilling will be the only player voted in this year. He’ll join Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, and the rest of the 2020 Hall of Fame class on stage during the induction ceremony next July.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Theo Epstein stepped down as Cubs president of baseball operations earlier this week. It was an open secret he would leave Chicago when his contract expired after next season, so he’s getting a head start on things. Epstein said he plans to spend 2021 with his family but he does want to stay in baseball -- “Short-term, I want to help the game,” Epstein told Alex Speier -- and not necessarily at the front office level. He wants something bigger. Forming or joining an ownership group seems possible. What about commissioner? Bud Selig groomed and handpicked Rob Manfred to replace him but it was not a slam dunk -- Manfred needed six rounds of voting to be approved -- and reportedly some owners aren’t happy with him after he failed to get the players to accept a second round of pay reductions this season. If nothing else, Epstein would bring instant credibility. Then again, his entire thing is having huge short-term success before running away from the burning building, and maybe that’s not the best quality for a commissioner. No idea whether Epstein would even want to be commissioner. Just a thought. Basically, this is just me again hoping someone will save baseball from Manfred … Last but certainly not least, former Yankees reliever Lindy McDaniel passed away from COVID-19 earlier this week, friends and family confirmed. He was 84. McDaniel started his career with the Cardinals before moving on to the Cubs and Giants, and later joining the Yankees at the 1966 trade deadline. In parts of six seasons with the Yankees he pitched to a 2.89 ERA in 544.2 innings, almost all in relief. That includes an incredible 160.1 innings in three starts and 44 relief appearances in 1973. The Yankees sent McDaniel to the Royals for Lou Piniella in Dec. 1973 and he is the last Yankees pitcher to hit a home run. McDaniel took Mickey Lolich deep on Sept. 28th, 1972, in the 150th game of a 155-game season. The American League adopted the DH the next season. McDaniel is probably a top 10 reliever in franchise history, and certainly one of the best from the pre-modern bullpen usage era. May he rest in peace. This pandemic sucks.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

John asks: Besides Jon Gray (I like him and I know you do too). Give me a surprise starter that you think they Yankees would realistically trade for. Cashman seems to do these trades from time to time.

Jordan Yamamoto. My pal R.J. Anderson heard the Marlins came close to trading Yamamoto last offseason (to an unknown team, not necessarily to the Yankees), and, even after trading Caleb Smith for Starling Marte at the deadline, Miami has enough rotation depth to move Yamamoto. Their rotation candidates by 2021 ZiPS WAR:

1. RHP Sandy Alcantara: +2.6 WAR
2. RHP Pablo Lopez: +2.1 WAR
3. LHP Trevor Rogers: +1.8 WAR
4. RHP Sixto Sanchez: +1.4 WAR
5. LHP Daniel Castano: +1.3 WAR
6. LHP Braxton Garrett: +1.2 WAR
7. RHP Jordan Yamamoto: +1.1 WAR

Righty Elieser Hernandez has had some success in the big leagues and righty Nick Neidert is a prospect of note, so the Marlins have rotation depth beyond the top seven. When your seventh best starter projects out to a win, and you have more depth behind him, you’re in good shape.

Yamamoto, 24, came over from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade and had a serviceable MLB debut last season, throwing 78.2 innings with a 4.46 ERA (4.51 FIP) and a strong 25.5% strikeout rate. The 11.1% walk rate was too high, but Yamamoto has a history of low walk rates in the minors (career 7.0%), and he’s hardly the first youngster to walk too many in his debut.

Last winter Yamamoto tried a new short arm action a la Lucas Giolito and Joe Kelly and it didn’t work at all. He lost velocity and spent the summer at the alternate site working to get back to his pre-2020 self. In four scattered big league appearances this year, Yamamoto allowed 24 runs and 34 baserunners in 11.1 innings. Opponents hit .458/.507/.983 against him. Yikes.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Yamamoto as the No. 18 prospect in a good Marlins system last year, so while he was never a tippy top prospect, he did look like a future big league contributor. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Yamamoto isn't overpowering, sitting mostly 89-93 mph with his fastball, but all of his stuff tends to play up because of his above-average to plus control. His late-breaking, downer curveball is his best secondary offering, flashing plus at times but consistently grading as an above-average pitch. Yamamoto has feel for a changeup, giving him three average-or-better pitches … He has the potential of a mid-rotation starter.

Yamamoto has thrown six different pitches in the big leagues: four-seamer, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. That might be too many pitches. Put two pitches in your back pocket and focus on your four best, you know? The numbers say the four-seamer, curveball, changeup, and slider are Yamamoto’s best pitches, so there you go. Here’s some video.

As bad as he was in 2020 (very, very bad), Yamamoto seems like a classic buy low opportunity. He has a deep arsenal with good spin rates and a history of better than average control, so it’s a starter’s repertoire, for sure. The Marlins were ready to move him last winter, so it seems he’s fallen out of favor, and they have the depth to move him now.

Would I want Yamamoto to be the pitching addition the Yankees make this offseason? No, of course not. He was so bad this year that he’d almost have to be a depth pickup in addition to two legitimate MLB starters. Pick him up for pennies on the dollar then try to fix him. There’s an interesting pitcher hiding under that 18.26 ERA in 2020.

Matthew asks: What are your thoughts on Salvador Perez as a trade target? When I saw his BABIP last year was .375 I assumed that explained his excellent offensive season, but he was 98th percentile in xBA on Baseball Savant. Similar projected bottom line results to Gary but in a completely different way. Do you think he is obtainable?

I do not think he's obtainable. Perez is a heart and soul player and a legacy Royal, and he’s probably not going to price himself out of Kansas City a la Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer when his contract expires next offseason. In fact, I bet Perez never even hits free agency. I think the Royals will extend him at some point, which is what they did last time his contract was set to expire.

Perez turns 31 in May and his 2020 season was wildly out of line with the rest of his career. He hit .333/.353/.633 (162 wRC+) in 156 plate appearances around a positive COVID-19 test and an eye issue. Perez hit .251/.285/.466 (95 wRC+) from 2017-18 before missing 2019 with Tommy John surgery. That’s who he’s been pretty much his entire career.

Defensively, Perez has rated about average as a framer and his arm was above-average before elbow reconstruction -- runners went 8-for-11 (73%) stealing bases against him in 2020 -- and that’s pretty much the Sal Perez story. Average offense and average-ish defense, and a catcher who is average across the board is better than league average at the position.

Hypothetically, Perez would be a good target if the Yankees were going to move on from Gary Sanchez. I’d rather trade for Perez than sign any non-Realmuto free agent, that’s for sure. I don’t think the Royals will trade him though, and I’d rather the Yankees stick with Sanchez than spend limited payroll space (Perez is owed $14.2M in 2020) and trade prospects for a new catcher.

Anthony asks: It's not Yankees related but I would love to know your thoughts on the White Sox hiring Tony LaRussa as manager? He seems like an odd fit for a young team especially considering his comments about players kneeling during the anthem and recent (and second) DUI. I don't see what positives he brings to that pretty talented team.

It is an odd fit, to put it nicely. Feels very “Bobby Valentine with the Red Sox” to me. The owner went over the front office’s head to hire his guy, and while La Russa is an all-time great manager and Hall of Famer who revolutionized bullpen usage, he hasn’t managed in almost a decade now. The game has changed a lot -- a lot -- since he was last in the dugout.

If I were a White Sox fan, I’d worry about two things. One, how will La Russa mesh with a very young and excitable team? He wasn’t a fan of Fernando Tatis Jr. swinging in a 3-0 count with the bases loaded in August. What happens when Tim Anderson or Luis Robert or Eloy Jimenez flip their bat or do something deemed against the old school unwritten rules?

And two, La Russa is owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s guy, and in that case, will he feel any accountability to the front office? The manager and the front office must collaborate in the year 2021. La Russa managed back when the manager was the field general and in charge of everything. That’s not how it works now. He knows the owner has his back. Why bother listening to the COMPUTER NERDS in the front office in that case?

The DUI thing just makes the hire even worse. The White Sox said they knew about it and they hired La Russa anyway, a tacit endorsement of his behavior, and the whole thing screams lack of leadership. The White Sox need an adult in the room. They’re a very good and very talented team, but bringing in La Russa has way more downside than upside, I think.

Will asks: I'm personally not a huge fan of the extra innings base runner but your suggestion about going a couple of innings normally before putting the runner on sounds good. However, if we were to take a step back, what about allowing ties? I don't think it is something I have ever heard discussed and can't think of a real reason not to do it. Standings are determined by winning percentage. Perhaps you might get teams playing for a tie rather than playing for a win but do that too many times and you end up hurting yourself.

MLB already has ties, technically, they just never happen. The last tie was in Sept. 2016, and the last tie before that was in June 2005. Two years ago Jeff Samardzija said he wanted ties in baseball, so I did the math, and they didn’t change the 2018 final standings much. On average, teams played 11 extra innings games per season from 2017-19. It’s just not that many games.

My preference would be playing until you have a winner each and every game. Ties are lame and the last thing MLB needs to do is make baseball more boring. My preferences, in order:

1. Extra innings tiebreaker rule.
2. Normal extra innings rules.
3. Something super gimmicky (home run derby rather than extra innings, etc.).
4. Ties.

If you’re going to eliminate extra innings and adopt ties (or ties after the 10th or 12th inning or whatever), then I think you’d have to change the standings to a points system rather than use winning percentage. Three points for a win and one for a tie puts a greater premium on wins. Maybe even four points for a win? You want to discourage settling for a tie and I’m not sure two points for a win is enough to do that, even late in the season.

Ties are not for me and I think most baseball fans would be against them. I also understand wanting to avoid long extra innings games and putting players at increased risk of injury. The extra innings rule is fine with me. I like it. Ties would work, traditionally speaking, but gosh, they would be pretty boring.

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