November 6th, 2020: Player Evaluations, 90/90 Club, Minors, Mailbag

Just a heads up: I am planning to skip the regularly scheduled post on Friday, Nov. 27th. That’s three weeks from today. It's the day after Thanksgiving. If there’s breaking news, I will happily cover it, but I have family obligations for the holiday and would like a little break. Thanks for reading and thanks as always for the support. Here are this morning's thoughts as the Red Sox join the news dump Hall of Fame.

1. Evaluating players after 2020. This offseason will be difficult for countless reasons. Teams have to navigate the sport’s damaged economic state, and also figure out how to properly evaluate players after a 60-game season. Is Javy Baez a true talent .203/.238/.360 (57 wRC+) hitter now? Probably not, but his exit velocity dropped close to 2 mph and his hard-hit rate fell more than three percentage points this year. How do you weigh that?

It’s not just possible free agent or trade targets either. It’s players in your own organization, the guys you are considering building around or jettisoning. And minor leaguers? Oy vey. I have no idea how you can accurately evaluate those guys right now. Even the minor leaguers who spent the season at the alternate site. They were playing glorified sandlot games. All players had to deal with the COVID-19 protocols and there were no fans in the stands either. That matters.

“I don’t think we know what to do with this year. We’re going to make our best guess. I imagine different clubs are going to treat this year in different ways,” an executive told Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) in September. “The human inclination is going to be to look at the guys who performed and count that as real, and then to look at the guys who under-performed or had bad years and say, ‘Oh, it’s an aberration because of all the craziness of 2020.’ That’s not the right way to do it. You probably should count all performance or not.”

As outsiders, it is basically impossible for us to accurately evaluate players right now. We see that this guy hit this, and that pitcher struck out that many batters, but teams have advanced far beyond that. They evaluate based on contact rates, spin rates, extension, etc. For example, the Yankees are not looking at DJ LeMahieu and saying “he’s great because he hit .364/.421/.590 this year." They’re looking at him and saying “he’s great because he’s this efficient with his swing and we expect him to produce this type of contact moving forward once we adjust for age.”

MLB transitioned from Trackman to Hawk-Eye this year -- Hawk-Eye is the same company used to track the ball during pro tennis events -- and it is far more advanced, adding another wrinkle to player evaluation. Among other things, Hawk-Eye records limb movements without the need for wearable sensors, providing real time biomechanical data. I assume MLB and the MLBPA worked out through the union’s privacy concerns -- it’s one thing to put a radar gun on a pitched or hit ball, it’s another to record every little movement -- and teams have that data (we never will), and it is far more valuable than what a guy hit last year or the last three years.

“You can’t just pretend the year didn’t happen and age everybody a year. You do have 60 games. But at the same time, are they 60 real games?” another executive told Rosenthal. “How do you evaluate rookies when there is nobody in the stands? With so much of the technology we have, a lot of people will say, ‘We can evaluate players in less than 60 games in a normal season, so why is this one any different.’ But with everything everyone is dealing with, everything off the field, I don’t know. It’s a hard question. I don’t have a good answer for it.”

My hunch is teams are more confident in their ability to evaluate players after the short season than they let on. Doesn’t mean they can evaluate them as well as they would have after a 162-game season, but information like exit velocity and spin rate and arm speed and things like that is still useful in a smaller sample. You can fake being a .300 hitter for 60 games. Can you fake being a 92 mph average exit velocity hitter though? Can you fake a spin efficiency north of 90% on your fastball for 60 games? No, not really.

Money will drive decisions more than unreliable player evaluations this offseason, I believe. Teams may not be as confident in their evaluations this winter, that’s understandable, and that will be baked into the price (the price to sign a free agent or make a trade). As fans, we tend to look at what a player has produced in the most recent season(s), but smart teams don’t make decisions based on output stats. That will continue to be the case, only with larger error bars.

2. The 90/90 club. My latest silly obsession is the 90/90 club, meaning players with a 90% in-zone contact rate and a 90 mph average exit velocity. It’s a very exclusive club -- the MLB averages are 83.7% and 88.0 mph, respectively -- that includes superstars like Mookie Betts (93.3% and 90.7 mph) and Anthony Rendon (91.2% and 90.1 mph).

Guys like Betts and Rendon are unattainable. A few other members of the 90/90 club either definitely are available this offseason or might be available if you ask nice enough. Here are a few players either in the 90/90 club or damn close to it who may or may or may not sense for the Yankees going forward, listed alphabetically.

Matt Beaty (90.9% and 89.4 mph)

I had Beaty on my Offseason Plan shopping list but never did get around to figuring out an equitable deal to acquire him. The Dodgers utility man does not have an obvious spot on the roster and spent most of this past season at the alternate site. In 2019, he hit .265/.317/.458 (102 wRC+) with nine homers in 268 plate appearances while playing the four corners. Justin Turner’s and Enrique Hernandez’s free agency could open a permanent roster for Beaty, a 27-year-old lefty hitter. Otherwise he’s basically a more versatile version of Mike Ford, who managed to sit on the bench most of 2020. The Yankees could easily find use for him.

Willie Calhoun (89.9% and 89.3 mph)

Not a member of the 90/90 club but a member of the next best thing: the 89/89 club. Injuries have derailed Calhoun. He’s missed time with quad and hamstring problems, and has hit .245/.297/.430 (82 wRC+) in 160 big league games, including a 22 wRC+ in 29 games this past season. Calhoun is only 26 and he’s always destroyed minor league pitching, so there is some late bloomer potential. The only problem is Calhoun has no defensive home. The Dodgers tried him at second base before sending him to Texas in the Yu Darvish trade, and he’s been a full-time left fielder since. Calhoun has a minor league option remaining and it’s always worth bringing in talented players, especially if you can buy low. For the Yankees though, Calhoun would be a square peg in a round roster hole.

Robinson Cano (90.4% and 90.4 mph)

Hmmm. Cano has been a consistent 90/90 guy throughout his career, even as he’s entered his late 30s. He hit .316/.352/.544 (141 wRC+) with 10 homers in 49 games this year, though he did just turn 38. His production could crater at pretty much any moment. That said, if DJ LeMahieu leaves as a free agent, and new Mets owner Steve Cohen is willing to eat enough money to turn Cano into, say, a $10M a year player the next three years (so they could put Jeff McNeil back at second base full-time?), would the Yankees take him to play second base? I doubt it, but Robbie is still productive and his lefty bat would slot into the No. 3 lineup spot between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton nicely. Not sayin’ they should do it, I’m just sayin’.

Cesar Hernandez (89.9% and 89.1 mph)

Another 89/89 club guy. Hernandez had a fine season with Cleveland, hitting .283/.355/.408 (108 wRC+) with three homers in 58 games while playing Gold Glove defense. That is pretty much exactly who Hernandez has been his entire career. He is still only 30 and he’s played 380 of 384 possible games the last three seasons, and he’s probably looking at another one-year deal in this free agent market. Wouldn’t be the worst short-term second base candidate should LeMahieu sign elsewhere. Not at all.

DJ LeMahieu (92.9% and 91.3 mph)

The Yankees (and Dodgers and Rays) were attracted to LeMahieu two years ago because he combines elite contact rates with elite exit velocity (and also great defense). Baseball Savant no longer allows you to create spray charts by exit velocity for some reason -- who would want that very useful tool? -- so here’s a knockoff version, showing LeMahieu’s exit velocity by direction in 2020:

The guy hits the ball hard to all fields and he doesn’t strike out often. I won’t call him the perfect hitter but he’s damn close. The Yankees really should just re-sign LeMahieu. I know he would make their lineup lean even more to the right, but he’s not like their other righty batters. The Yankees shouldn’t cave and give LeMahieu whatever he wants -- he will turn 33 in Year 1 of his next contract, after all -- but yeah, just re-sign him.

Nick Markakis (92.5% and 89.0 mph)

A good reminder that being in the 90/90 club doesn’t automatically equal greatness, even for an established big leaguer. Markakis has been close to a replacement level player for four years now, and he hit .254/.312/.392 (89 wRC+) this past season. That’s a tick below his 2016-19 production (102 wRC+), which wasn’t great to start with. Markakis turns 37 later this month and unlike, say, Brett Gardner, he no longer provides any value on the bases or in the field. I suppose the Yankees could let Gardner walk and bring in Markakis as a platoon partner for Clint Frazier, but nah. No thanks.

Nick Solak (90.4% and 89.9 mph)

That’s former Yankees prospect Nick Solak to you. The Yankees sent Solak to the Rays in the three-team Brandon Drury trade, then Tampa sent him to the Rangers for Pete Fairbanks last year. Despite being close to a 90/90 club guy, Solak has only been league average-ish in his career to date -- he’s a .277/.351/.397 (95 wRC+) hitter in 368 plate appearances -- and he does not have a defensive home. The Rangers are trying to shoehorn him into the outfield at the moment. Still, a soon-to-be 26-year-old with that contact and hard-hit ability is worth asking about. I don’t think Texas will trade him -- they reportedly love Solak -- but you never know. I’m just not sure where he plays for the Yankees. Figure that out later, I guess.

3. Latest on the minor leagues. Baseball America released their annual top 10 Yankees prospects list earlier this week. Outfielder-slash-manchild Jasson Dominguez sits in the top spot and, based on a cursory glance, the top 10 looks a lot like last year’s. Makes sense after the lost season. How are you supposed to re-rank players after this year? I haven’t had a chance to dig into the top 10 yet but will do so this weekend and chime in with my thoughts next week.

For now, I just want to pass along the latest developments with MLB’s minor league contraction plan. MLB and MiLB still don’t have a new Professional Baseball Agreement in place but are working toward one. Here are the latest developments and what they may mean for the Yankees.

NY-Penn League may become collegiate league

Similar to the rookie Appalachian League, MLB is looking to convert the short season New York Penn-League into a wood bat summer collegiate league, according to J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d). It is not a done deal yet (it is for the Appy League) but things are moving in that direction. Here are the details from Cooper:

In a teleconference with the NYPL’s teams, MLB laid out a proposal to create a roughly 60-game league aimed at attracting draft-eligible college players. Under MLB’s proposal, the NYPL’s teams would pay league dues to Prep Baseball Report, the national showcase and scouting service, which would be responsible for organizing and operating the league.

...

The new league would be another potential addition to a crowded summer wood-bat circuit. Under the proposal, MLB would try to route rising freshmen and sophomores to the Appalachian League. Rising juniors would be encouraged to head to the existing Cape Cod League and the NYPL would be the top destination for draft-eligible rising seniors.

Those delineations (freshman and sophomores to one league, juniors to another, seniors to another, etc.) do not exist now. They’re new. Also, Cooper says the NYPL season could be moved up a month and begin in May, giving players a chance to play 5-6 weeks worth of games before the draft. What happens after the draft? Who knows.

It’s possible several current NYPL teams will be moved to different minor leagues and remain affiliated with MLB organizations, including the Staten Island Yankees. It doesn’t mean Staten Island will remain a Yankees affiliate, but they could remain a minor league team rather than become a less lucrative collegiate league. Either way, the Yankees are losing another affiliate with this plan. The Pulaski Yankees are already gone and Staten Island figures to join them soon.

New Single-A alignments

Kevin Reichard has the details on MLB’s proposed new Single-A level alignments. Here’s what the two Single-A levels could look like moving forward:

Low-A
California League (currently High-A)
Florida State League (currently High-A)
South Atlantic League (currently Low-A)

High-A
Midwest League (currently Low-A)
Northwest League (currently short season)
Carolina League (currently High-A)
Mid-Atlantic League (new league)

Teams may move between leagues so, for example, the Charleston RiverDogs could leave the Sally League and join the Carolina League, which would allow them to remain affiliated with the Yankees. Otherwise the Yankees would have two Low-A affiliates (Charleston and the Tampa Tarpons in the FSL) and no High-A affiliate. Also, that new Mid-Atlantic League would seem to be a potential landing spot for Staten Island if they avoid the collegiate league fate.

MLB wants to realign the various minor leagues to make travel easier and get affiliates closer to their parent clubs, which is great. I am all for that. Won’t be easy (rather, it’ll be extremely complicated) but it is a worthy endeavor. Reichard says there is expected to be much less movement at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, with only a few potential moves that will have no impact on the Yankees other than reducing travel. That report about the independent Somerset Patriots becoming a Yankees affiliate seems to have been a bunch of nothing.

MLB proposes facility upgrades

As expected, MLB has proposed a new set of facility and travel standards for the minor leagues, according to J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d). Minor league facility standards have not been updated since the 1990s and some of the new requirements are significant. A partial list:

• Both clubhouses must be at least 1,000 square feet.
• Dedicated food prep and eating areas, and a locker room for female staffers.
• Covered batting cages and pitching tunnels, and a weight room.
• All teams must meet Double-A and Triple-A lighting standards.
• Multiple buses required for trips of 250 miles or more.
• Air travel for trips of 350 miles or more (unless there’s an off-day).

It seems this stuff is negotiable and not yet a mandate -- Cooper notes MiLB teams have pointed out MLB road clubhouses do not have to be as large as the home clubhouse -- and teams will have time to make the necessary upgrades. They don’t all have to be done by Opening Day 2021. Lower level teams have the most work to do to be compliant.

Improved facilities is a good thing -- MLB looking after minor leaguers? what a concept -- and the biggest issue is cost. Minor league teams just lost a season’s worth of revenue and now will have to expand clubhouses, build new workout areas, increase their travel costs, etc. MLB and the parent organization could help with those costs, but there’s no indication that will be the case yet. We’ll see. I’m all for improving the minor league experience, and these upgrades are reasonable enough. It’ll just take a lot of work (and a lot of money) for teams to become compliant.

4. Minor league signings. Twenty-one Yankees became minor league free agents last week and the Yankees have started the process of restocking the cupboard. They have signed first baseman Chris Gittens, and righties Kevin Gadea and Nick Green, to minor league contracts, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle.

Gittens and Green are returning to the organization. Gittens, 27 in February, was a 12th round pick in 2014, and he hit .281/.393/.500 (164 wRC+) with 23 home runs en route to being named the Double-A Eastern League MVP in 2019. The Yankees did not invite him to the alternate site this season, however. Gittens figures to be the primary Triple-A first base/DH option next year, depending what happens with Mike Ford.

Green, 25, originally came over in the Carlos Beltran trade with the Rangers and the Diamondbacks gave him a look as a Rule 5 Draft pick last year. He was returned at the end of Spring Training and had a brutal minor league season, throwing 82.1 innings with a 6.67 ERA (3.76 FIP) with mostly Double-A Trenton. Green is a sinker guy who led the minors in ground ball rate a few years ago. He’s more of a prospect than Gittens but still isn’t much of a prospect now.

Gadea is new to the organization. The soon-to-be 26-year-old converted to pitching soon after signing with the Mariners as a third baseman out of Nicaragua in 2011, and he was so impressive at Low-A in 2016 (2.15 ERA and 2.54 FIP with 35.1% strikeouts and 5.4% walks in 50.1 innings) that the Rays picked him in the Rule 5 Draft. Gadea has been MIA since that 2016 season though. He hurt his elbow in Spring Training 2017 and has not pitched since.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Gadea as the No. 25 prospect in Tampa’s system going into 2017. A snippet of their scouting report:

Gadea took time to develop but progressively grew bigger and stronger with two above-average pitches out of his 6-foot-5 frame and at least plus control. Despite the fact Gadea had never pitched above low Class A, the Rays loved his total package and took him with the fourth pick in the 2016 Rule 5 draft. Gadea's fastball sits 91-94 mph and touches 95, and it plays exceptionally well with his mid-80s changeup that presently grades above-average and flashes plus. He also mixes in an upper-70s curveball that is a work in progress. Lean and athletic, Gadea repeats his delivery well and pounds the strike zone.

That was almost four years ago now, so who knows what Gadea looks like these days. The Yankees did not just sign him on a whim though. They must’ve seen him at a workout or tryout camp somewhere and liked him enough to sign him. Signing a guy who hasn’t pitched in several years because of injuries rarely works out, but this is a zero risk move, and every once in a while one of these guys turns into Jonathan Loaisiga. I am intrigued.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Neither Gio Urshela nor Clint Frazier won the Gold Glove earlier this week. They were both finalists but Isiah Kiner-Falefa won at third base and Joey Gallo won in right field. The Gold Gloves are about the only thing the Rangers have going for them these days. They can have them. Brett Gardner remains the last Yankee to win a Gold Glove (left field in 2016). Bold-ish prediction: Aaron Judge stays healthy and wins a Gold Glove next year … According to George King, Jasson Dominguez will not play winter ball this offseason because he’s not eligible. He’s too young and he (still) hasn’t made his official pro debut. ”We are still considering doing (an Instructional League) in the Dominican Republic, so Jasson would likely be invited there,” farm director Kevin Reese told King. Also, I should note several teams have had to shut down Instructs in recent weeks because of COVID-19 outbreaks, including the Athletics, Cubs, Mets, and Rangers, among others. The Yankees are not holding Instructs because they're worried about the spiking cases in Florida after having two minor leaguers test positive in March. Seems like a prudent decision now.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

John asks: Why am I not hearing more Tommy La Stella to New York rumors? Lefty bat, good enough defense at 2nd and 3rd, average to above average bat with low K% for the last 6 years who is 31 and expected by MLBTR to get around $14m over 2 years. I much prefer Lindor at SS and Gleyber to 2B in your offseason plan, but outside of paying for DJ, this seems to just make a lot of sense.

To be fair, we’re not hearing any “this player to that team” rumors right now. Been a very quiet first week of the offseason. I signed La Stella in the first version of my Offseason Plan but changed it up at the last minute and went with Mitch Moreland and Anthony Bass instead (after the Padres finally got around to declining Moreland’s option Sunday). La Stella would’ve been my Luke Voit replacement at first base.

Here’s most of what I wrote about Le Stella before he was bumped out of the Offseason Plan:

The soon-to-be 32-year-old had an incredible 2020 season, hitting .281/.370/.449 (129 wRC+) with far more walks (11.8%) than strikeouts (5.3%) in 55 games. I wouldn’t expect him to post that K/BB ratio again, but he’s had a 120 wRC+ or better three times in the last four seasons, and he always ranks among the league leaders in contact. Here’s where he placed among the 324 batters with at least 800 plate appearances since 2017:

Strikeout rate: 9.5% (2nd lowest)
Swing and miss rate: 4.8% (6th lowest)
Contact rate: 88.4% (6th highest)
In-zone contact rate: 92.9% (12th highest)

La Stella gives you elite contact ability and a good amount of walks (9.4%), hence the career .349 OBP. Also, he’s a lefty hitter who isn’t totally useless against southpaws (.261/.337/.365 and 95 wRC+) and has pull power. Here is his spray chart since 2017:

Long story short, La Stella sprays the ball to all fields thanks to his contact skills, and he’ll also yank a mistake out to right field. That’ll play well in Yankee Stadium. La Stella is good enough to play every day -- I have him penciled in as my Voit replacement at first base -- but he’s also thrived as a part-timer with the Cubs from 2015-18, and that’s not nothing. It’s hard being a bench guy. He’s shown he can remain productive while playing sporadically.

If DJ LeMahieu leaves, La Stella is as good a second base option as anyone on the free agent market (Cesar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, etc.). The Yankees could use him even if they re-sign LeMahieu too. Use him as a “tenth man” who plays first, second, and third, which was supposed to be LeMahieu's original role in 2019. The Yankees would have to let Brett Gardner go (or dump Mike Tauchman and re-sign Gardner) to fit La Stella on the bench, but it’s doable. I like La Stella and would be all for signing him. He’s a nice little fit.

Craig asks: Ok, the Dodgers have shown they don't need him, so what about David Price in pinstripes?  What would it take and how much salary would the Yankees have to take on?  (I realize these are related.)

Pretty crazy the Dodgers won the World Series without Price (opted out) and after trading away Kenta Maeda (AL Cy Young finalist) and letting Hyun-Jin Ryu (another AL Cy Young finalist) leave as a free agent. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May were pretty bad in the postseason (15 runs in 20 innings), but the Dodgers survived.

Price turned 35 in August and he was just okay last season, throwing 107.1 innings with a 4.28 ERA (3.62 FIP) around elbow tendinitis and a cyst in his wrist. The injuries obviously may have contributed to the mediocre performance, though he had a 3.58 ERA (4.02 FIP) the year before that, so Price has been showing signs of decline for a while now.

Now that he’s had a full year to heal up, Price could return good as new next year, and throwing as well as he has in years. That’s surely what the Dodgers are hoping, I imagine. Trading for him and expecting that though? Eh. When he’s not already in your organization, you have to assume you’re getting a 35-year-old pitcher in decline when you trade for him.

The Red Sox are paying half of Price’s salary, so the Dodgers owe him $16M each of the next two years. If the Dodgers pay that down a little more and make him, say, a $10M a year pitcher, it could interest the Yankees. Ideally he’s your No. 3 rather than your No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole. Not sure I’d want Price to be the pitching addition. I'd rather he be one of (at least) two additions.

I’ve always liked Price -- I mean, he was basically the perfect pitcher at his peak, and by all accounts he’s a great dude and popular with his teammates -- and would welcome him under the right circumstances. Those circumstances are something less than $16M a year and with not a whole lot (mid-range prospect or two?) going the other way.

Steve asks: Reading through your Offseason Plan post today got me thinking of some 2nd/3rd options on the trade market for SP pickups and noticed Jon Gray only has one year left before FA.  Believe I saw something about the Rockies reducing payroll soon so maybe moving the 5-6 million Gray will get in arb would make sense to them in this market?  Basically get something back now for him rather than them holding him and waiting for the trade deadline or I suppose just non-tendering him. The Yankees have some connections to him previously and when he is on he is a very Yankees-type pitcher.... I recall you writing about him in the past also so if he is medically cleared, think he might be worth a roll of the dice for that 5th SP spot?

The Rockies are definitely cutting payroll. In fact, owner Dick Monfort has already sent a letter to season ticket holders downplaying expectations for the offseason. "There will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality,” the letter said, according to Nick Groke. Colorado already has $95.3M in guaranteed contracts on the books for next year, plus another $26.9M in arbitration projections. They’ve run payrolls in the $130M to $140M range the last few years, so if payroll is coming down, they’ll have to dump players.

Gray, 29, is projected for $5.9M next year and he was horrible this past season. He threw 39 innings with a 6.69 ERA (5.06 FIP) and a 12.6% strikeout rate that was literally half what he’d posted in previous years. Gray’s velocity was down 2 mph across the board and, probably not coincidentally, shoulder inflammation ended his season the first week of September. Was this a result of the Summer Camp weirdness, or a sign of something more worrisome? (Or both?)

We’ve already seen a few surprise option decisions (Brad Hand, Kolten Wong) and Gray could be among the surprise non-tenders. Normally, you’d expect the Rockies to bring him back at that price and hope he turns it around, or at least keep him and trade him. Now they might cut him loose entirely rather than risk getting stuck with that $5.9M. A few weeks ago I would’ve said no way that happens. Now it definitely feels like a thing that could happen.

You can’t trade the Rockies anything of value for Gray. The Jake Odorizzi trade is a good benchmark here. Everyone knew Tampa had to dump Odorizzi’s $6.3M salary in 2019 and the Twins sent them a non-top 30 prospect (Jermaine Palacios) in a salary dump. That’s what it should take to get Gray. A fringe prospect. If that’s not enough, then dare them to keep Gray beyond the non-tender deadline. He’s not good enough to be demanding more in return, you know?

I like Gray -- I feel like I’ve been writing about this guy as a trade target for six years now -- and would love him as a back of the rotation reclamation projection. You definitely can’t expect him to be the No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole, but the No. 4 or 5? Sure. I’ll take that roll of the dice. When he’s right, Gray can be really good, especially outside Coors Field. I’m a fan and I’ll take him, and the Yankees shouldn’t have to give up much to acquire him.

Brian asks: Dellin Betances. Random thought, but seeing him opt in to $6M option, it really is devastating that he lost, conservatively estimating, $40M? by not becoming a FA one year earlier. I’m sure there are other historical examples, but he seems to be one of the players who has been most screwed by 6 years of team control system.

Yeah, Dellin Betances hit free agency one year too late. He was awesome in 2018, pitching to a 2.70 ERA (2.47 FIP) with 115 strikeouts in 66.2 innings as Aaron Boone’s go-to high-leverage reliever. Betances would’ve hit free agency going into his age 31 season and the 2018-19 offseason was very good to free agent relievers:

• Zack Britton (age 31): 3 years, $39M
• Jeurys Familia (age 29): 3 years, $30M
• Adam Ottavino (age 33): 3 years, $27M
• Joe Kelly (age 31): 3 years, $25M
• Andrew Miller (age 34): 2 years, $25M
• David Robertson (age 33): 2 years, $23M

Britton had the whole Proven Closer™ thing going for him, so I’m not sure Betances gets that much. He certainly would’ve been in the Familia/Kelly/Ottavino range though, right? Probably more seeing how he was better than those guys and several years younger than Miller and Robertson. Three years and $33M is my guess, give or take a million a year.

Dellin made $7.25M in 2019, his final year of team control, then he signed a complicated one-year deal worth $10.5M guaranteed with the Mets. After exercising his player option last week, he’ll make $13.5M on that contract, so he’s at $20.75M total from 2019-21. That’s a lot of money! Betances did well for himself. But that’s also about two-thirds what he could’ve made had he become a free agent after 2018 rather than 2019.

Brian's $40M estimate is overshooting it, but there's no doubt Betances lost a ton of money by having to wait until 2019 to become a free agent rather than 2018. (Including his $1M draft signing bonus and prorated 2020 salary, Dellin's career earnings through next season are a touch over $30.3M before taxes, union dues, agent fees, etc.)

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)