The Official 2020-21 RAB Offseason Plan
Added 2020-11-02 15:19:19 +0000 UTCComments
Great work Mike, I loved reading this!
Mike Farley
2020-11-04 01:00:46 +0000 UTCAmazing work Mike, how much time did you spend on it? Great insight everywhere. And I’ve been dreaming about Lindor in pinstripes for quite some time...
Federico Triulzi
2020-11-03 21:02:42 +0000 UTCThere are two sides to the business: The team on the field, and the fans in the stands. I don't know how he has evaluated the business as is. Maybe he thinks the team is a FA or three away and will spend. Maybe he thinks it needs to be rebuilt from the ground up and will go on a Jeter-style rebuild. However, Mets fans are used to having their hopes crushed. He may want to do something to show Mets fans he won't be the same as the Wilpons, which could include making a big FA splash or perhaps a big trade.
Michael Darwin
2020-11-03 20:46:00 +0000 UTCHe's indicated he wants to run a Dodgers-like organization, and thatmakes sense as he comes from an industry that is heavy on analytics. I also believe he won't want to waste money. He's a businessman and a multi-billionaire. People don't become billionaires by wasting money. I know Mets fans and the media have pointed out how he buys extravagant art pieces, and that's a sign he'll come in and bid heavily on ballplayers, but there's no comparison. High-end art appreciates in value, unlike ballplayers who begin to depreciate almost immediately. My point is that long term I believe he will spend heavily, but it may come more on infrastructure, talent in the front office down through the farm, facilities, and scouting and development. That's the path to be the Dodgers. Now, he will almost assuredly be a heavy player in free agency when the player fits. That will be new for Mets fans of recent. That aside, there is a correlation with the Dodgers. As we all remember, the Dodgers initially spent big money to be competitive while they built out their system. Cohen probably does walk in and make a big splash like that, but longer term he may end up being a more measured owner than many are expecting.
MikeD
2020-11-03 18:44:25 +0000 UTCBonus coverage! And, yes, a fan favorite. Lefty/righty questions aside, why not let Andujar take over at 1B? I know he hasn't played there, but I doubt it would take long for him to be at least as bad with the glove as Voit or Ford, and a decent chance based on his athleticism he'd be significantly better. It eliminates the hesitation/double pump throw he seems to have at 3B. Or, sign Moreland and have Andjuar be part of a platoon, helping his transition to his new position.
MikeD
2020-11-03 18:28:55 +0000 UTCI would absolutely feel defeated if I was a Cleveland Indians fan and if that package, or a similar one, was all it took to get my guy Lindor in a trade. They really missed their shot last off-season, if they really aren't going to resign him.
Chris
2020-11-03 16:31:10 +0000 UTCI dunno if I would let DJLM walk. It hurts!
DocBob
2020-11-02 21:40:48 +0000 UTCI've been bored in lockdown, so I have played around with OOTP and baseballtradevalues.com a bit, and I also went after Varsho & Musgrove. I thought deals for them would be highly unlikely, though given that we both thought of it, maybe they are not. I used to think a deal for Varsho was farfetched for the same reasons, though there seems to be quite a bit of flexibility on the Dbacks roster already and they need more pitching. They have two other very solid options at center in Locastro (dude is almost as weird as Varsho in his skillset, check him out on Foolish Baseball YT) and Marte. If Marte steps off 2B and back to CF, they have VanMeter and Andy Young at 2B, who are both promising. They would prefer to keep Varsho of course, but I think offering Schmidt and other pieces would get them talking. A young rotation of Gallen, R. Smith, Weaver, Schmidt would be great and limit the number of innings they forfeit to Bumgarner. However, according to baseballtradevalues.com, Schmidt would only be a little more than half of what the Yankees would need to offer in a trade for Varsho, and your package for Musgrove is even further off, which doesn’t make sense to me. Apparently Varsho for Snell straight up would be a more equal trade… or Deivi Garcia and Florial (would the Rays do that? I would). If you took on Nick Ahmed and his $7.5m with Varsho, then Schmidt would be an equal trade apparently… I guess the site is a heavy believer in TINSTAAPP. Though, Nick Ahmed was somehow worth 1.2 WAR in 57 games this year on the account of his defense, so I guess that’s baked into this. I don't really buy half of BTV's trade values before arbitration hearings and free agent bids start falling in, because they don't seem to change quickly enough with the market, especially with extreme markets like the one we are clearly headed for. I think they are overestimating arbitration values; Luke Voit went from being worth $50m surplus trade value to $19m in like a week because they now estimate he will get $8 million in arbitration, which I think is nuts. If he gets $5 million in arbitration instead, he is worth nearly $40m, which nets you Lindor and Carrasco straight up with room to spare in their model. Crazy, but also makes a bit more sense when you factor in that this is Voit’s first year of arb and a $3m difference in the first year will be a much larger difference in the final year of arb and all the years leading up to it. If trading for Musgrove, wouldn’t it make sense to include Bell in the deal? He is apparently a non-tender candidate (!) coming off an awful down “season”, but he only had a bad august before a torrid few weeks in September, and has been an above average switch-hitter for his entire career, and a Voit level hitter as recently as last year. According to BTV, Bell would be worth “0” as he is expected $6m in arbitration. I personally would rather include him in the deal than add Profar and Moreland, if I already have Varsho/Gardner/Andujar and others on the bench. Alternatively, you could trade for Gallo & Lynn. Their combined value is nearly identical to Bell & Musgrove on BTV- I prefer Gallo to Bell for his flexibility and defense (elite OF, can play 1B and even 3B if really needed), though I slightly prefer Musgrove to Lynn for his age, potential, and extra years. As you know, Musgrove is just the high-spin, plus movement mold of pitcher Matt Blake seems best equipped to improve (Bieber, Plesac, etc. in the same mold). Though, Gallo abusing the short porch next to Judge and Stanton, and all of the extra complaints of striking out with RISP in the playoffs, would also just be hilarious to me. Just food for thought. Other trades I made in my version included Royals reliever Josh Staumont and A’s catcher Austin Allen. Staumont is not worth too much in a trade because of his lack of control and prospect pedigree, but my goodness his pure stuff this year was maybe the best of any young reliever in the game not named Williams or Karinchak. I think you wrote about him before. 100+mph filth with a curve nearly identical to Glasnow’s in Vertical & Horizontal movement and velocity. He could be acquired and worked into the next Hader and I would not be surprised, though he must find the zone more, which is easier said than done. I like your ideas for adding Rodriguez and Bass just as much though. Allen has done nothing but flat out rake in the minors his entire career, and now at 26 he’s been traded around and struggled with limited PAs as one of two backups to Sean Murphy -- who is probably the best young catcher behind Will Smith -- across a half season and a short season. Allen’s defense has been graded as average, but I think that could be slightly generous, though to have a plus Lefty bat at catcher would surely make up for that. Varsho is there for that AND outfield, and he is better defensively, which is why he would cost so much more to acquire- Allen would cost only a low to mid level prospect like King according to BTV and I think they’re right given the A’s already have Murphy and Heim. I would try trading for Varsho first, but if there just isn’t a deal to be made I’d go with Allen and let him make some noise in AAA to get a fire under Sanchez and Higgy, and then call him up to at least platoon if Higgy or Sanchez struggle. In my offseason plan I signed Kluber instead of trading for Lindor and Carrasco. Not sure which of the Cleveland aces is better at this point, though Carrasco is probably a little safer. Ideally you could get both Carrasco and Kluber in the rotation and let Matt Blake feel right at home. TL;DR/Some questions: - Do you choose Lindor over LeMahieu on the roster primarily because of Gleyber’s defense? (Imagine asking this question in 2018^) - Thoughts on Gallo & Lynn? - Are Garcia and Dominguez untouchable? - What do you make of BTV? - Any chance Cohen poaches some Yankees FO staff? Fishman grew up a die-hard Mets fan and they seem to be lacking the analytical prowess the other big teams (LAD, BOS, SF, etc.) bring to the table…
Oliver Hyland
2020-11-02 21:39:12 +0000 UTCBrain fart. Forgot about that rule. I wonder - if that rule didn't exist - whether teams would 'go there.'
I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For
2020-11-02 20:49:42 +0000 UTCThey can't claim Jasson. He won't be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until 2023. You can find that info here: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-new-york-yankees/
C Porch
2020-11-02 20:45:07 +0000 UTCI’d honestly rather they had done it based on a normal year, so that when DJ signs for 4/60 we wouldn’t have to hear people say “that’s crazy money to PLAY A GAME” and instead actually feel for the guy a little bit.
Nick G
2020-11-02 20:43:19 +0000 UTCDo we think it is at all irresponsible that some of these contract estimates have come out and are kind of setting a mindset for the level owners will reduce spending? Like I know it’s part of FanGraphs annual review to come up with estimates. But, I’m always skeptical of the owners crying poverty. And FanGraphs has put out FA estimates with reduced spending based on what? It feels unfair and slanted toward ownership, but I completely understand why it was done that way. Just feels a little unfair. And I know all it takes is one owner to drive the market for a player.
Nick G
2020-11-02 20:40:55 +0000 UTCThe worry here is in 12 months the Yankees have in all likelihood gone through a year with reduced attendance/revenue and may not be able to play in for the big SS market. Then they don’t have Voit or DJ or Lindor. Would be awesome to see the Yankees flex and do your plan here, minus Profar, plus DJ.
Nick G
2020-11-02 20:37:21 +0000 UTCIt’s tough for me to imagine anyone taking Ottavino at his full salary. But you’ve got some space left there.
Nick G
2020-11-02 20:33:34 +0000 UTCNow this is thinking outside the bun
Nick Fugitt
2020-11-02 20:27:25 +0000 UTCGood stuff Mike. It seems unlikely to me that ARZ would part with Varsho, but I respect going for it in Mike Axisa World. Do you have any interest in Kim Ha-Seong from Korea or Tomoyuki Sugano from Japan if they are posted?
Tyler
2020-11-02 20:01:10 +0000 UTCOTOH it's a pretty weak FA market in terms of supply.
I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For
2020-11-02 18:40:29 +0000 UTCIm so excited to read this! So excited in fact that I am pre-commenting.
Tabasco_Larry
2020-11-02 18:09:05 +0000 UTCGreat stuff Mike. Can you replace Cashman, please?
Brian Dinka
2020-11-02 17:52:00 +0000 UTCLove this Mike, thanks. BTW how about this for a Bold Prediction: Rays claim Jasson Dominguez and sit him on the bench for years. Just to piss us off.
I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For
2020-11-02 17:23:40 +0000 UTCThanks for bringing this back!
dc
2020-11-02 17:05:05 +0000 UTCCohen seems to have come in at a perfect time. He has more money than he knows what to do with and other owners already showing to be gun-shy. I expect the Mets to be VERY active on the FA market.
The Original Drew
2020-11-02 17:00:31 +0000 UTCVery nice. I do wonder how the new ownership across town will impact free agency. We know he has money, but don't know when and how he will spend it.
Michael Darwin
2020-11-02 15:49:10 +0000 UTC
