October 27th, 2020: LeMahieu, Arm Angles, Undrafted Free Agents

I’m finally catching up on some reading and I just got to Marly Rivera’s piece on Gerrit Cole and Kyle Higashioka. The Yankees drafted both out of Southern California high schools in 2008 and they were evaluated by the same scout, David Keith. When Cole threw to Higashioka in an MLB game for the first time this past season, they saved a ball and sent it to Keith. “We should throw the first pitch back to the dugout so that we can send it to David Keith,” Higashioka said Cole told him during their pregame meeting. Pretty cool. Now here are today’s thoughts.

1. The competition for LeMahieu. The free agent signing period opens in a few days and it seems unlikely the Yankees and DJ LeMahieu will reach a last second contract extension. He’ll hit the market and shop around, and I suspect the Yankees will make a sincere effort to retain him. More sincere than their Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances efforts last year. Will they spend whatever it takes to re-sign LeMahieu? Eh, probably not, but I think they want him back.

“He’s a special player, a special person, and of course we’d love to have him back,” Aaron Boone said during his end-of-season press conference (video link). “But you never know what this offseason is going to bring, where it’s going to go. All I know is we’ve been fortunate to have a great player and a great person at the top of our lineup the last couple years.”

LeMahieu is one of the few free agents with a chance to get a market value contract rather than something lower than expected in a depressed free agent market. Being good at everything and being a low maintenance player has its perks. The biggest knock against LeMahieu at this point is his age. He’ll turn 33 in July, so you’re signing him into his mid-30s, and that’s always risky.

Money always talks, though it stands to reason LeMahieu will look to sign with a contender this offseason. Patrick Saunders hears LeMahieu has pretty much ruled out a return to the Rockies -- "(He) doesn’t see the Rockies as a good fit for him,” Saunders wrote -- so yeah, that fits. Let’s size up LeMahieu’s suitors, and thus the Yankees’ competition for his services.

Boston Red Sox

2021 payroll commitments: $136M ($112.5M in guarantees plus $23.5M in arb projections)
LeMahieu suitor? Eh, maybe

Congrats to the Red Sox, who reset their luxury tax rate this season and only had to trade their future Hall of Fame homegrown megastar to make it happen (a tacit admission they're not smart enough to build a contender around him). They have money to spend this winter but need basically an entire rotation, so that will be the priority. Jose Peraza, Jonathan Arauz, and Christian Arroyo started 50 of 60 games at second base this year and there’s no top prospect coming to take the job. It’s a clear need. Are the Red Sox really going to trade Mookie Betts and then turn around and give LeMahieu something like $20M a year into his mid-30s? I wouldn’t rule it out. Just doesn’t seem like that was the master plan here.

Los Angeles Angels

2021 payroll commitments: $147.8M ($118.9M in guarantees plus $28.9M in arb projections)
LeMahieu suitor? For sure

That $118.9M in contract guarantees is tied up in four players: Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and Justin Upton. Yikes. Andrelton Simmons is a free agent and David Fletcher’s flexibility allows the Angels to look for a shortstop or second baseman. They’re already sniffing around Didi Gregorius. That’s an indication they’re willing to spend, especially because they don’t have a general manager right now, so that rumor presumably comes from ownership. I could see the Angels making a serious run at Francisco Lindor. If that doesn’t work out, then LeMahieu is a pretty great Plan B. They are a legitimate contender to sign him, for sure.

Los Angeles Dodgers

2021 payroll commitments: $174.4M ($143.1M in guarantees plus $30.7M in arb projections)
LeMahieu suitor? Probably not

The Yankees beat out two teams to sign LeMahieu two years ago: the Dodgers and Rays. We can rule out Tampa this time around. They’re not spending that kinda money. The Dodgers have the money and it’s just a question of how they want to spend it. They have to start thinking about long-term extensions for Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, and Corey Seager, plus they have top prospect Gavin Lux knocking on the door at second base. Justin Turner is a free agent though, and LeMahieu could step in at third base. Hmmm. I would never completely rule out the Dodgers. I just think they’re more likely to allocate their dollars elsewhere.

New York Mets

2021 payroll commitments: $120M ($73.7M in guarantees plus $46.3M in arb projections)
LeMahieu suitor? Yep

At some point soon the vote will be held and Steve Cohen will be approved as new owner of the Mets, and the expectation is he will infuse the team with cash right away. The Mets are locked into Robbie Cano at second base, but neither J.D. Davis nor Jeff McNeil are the long-term answer at the hot corner. They can hit, but they leave a lot to be desired at the position defensively. Cohen making a big splash and signing a star player away from the Yankees as his first impression, then using Davis and/or McNeil to get pitching, feels like a thing that could happen. The Mets are a threat.

Philadelphia Phillies

2021 payroll commitments: $131.2M ($113.7M in guarantees plus $17.5M in arb projections)
LeMahieu suitor? I’d call it 50/50

The Phillies are very clearly trying to win right now. Re-signing J.T. Realmuto will be their top priority this offseason. Right behind that is fixing a bullpen that was historically bad in 2020, and adding to the rotation. Sir Didi is a free agent though, and former top prospect Scott Kingery hasn’t done enough to warrant more playing time, so there is an opening on the middle infield. The Phillies could easily put LeMahieu at second and slide Jean Segura back to short. If they fail to re-sign Realmuto, then they become a much more serious threat to sign LeMahieu. Seems to me Realmuto and the pitching staff will take priority initially.

San Francisco Giants

2021 payroll commitments: $109.9M ($95.1M in guarantees plus $14.8M in arb projections)
LeMahieu suitor? Indeed

The Giants are a year away from a near clean payroll slate. Buster Posey ($21.1M), Johnny Cueto ($21M), Brandon Belt ($17.2M), and Brandon Crawford ($15.2M) all come off the books after next season, with Evan Longoria their only big ticket item signed beyond 2021. I expected San Francisco to make a serious run at Mookie Betts before he signed his extension -- he’s a prime-age superstar who would’ve fit wonderfully in their ballpark -- but, with Betts no longer an option, LeMahieu might be the next best thing. LeMahieu or George Springer. Donovan Solano had a great season (127 wRC+) but he’s older than LeMahieu and besides, both are versatile enough to move around. The Giants can fit both in the lineup. Do the Giants want LeMahieu or Springer? (Or both?) Could be a situation where they pursue both guys and sign whichever one first agrees to a friendly contract. Count the Giants in either way.

St. Louis Cardinals

2021 payroll commitments: $108.3M ($100.7M in guarantees plus $7.6M in arb projections)
LeMahieu suitor? Yes

The Adam Wainwright/Yadier Molina era is nearing an end -- Molina is a free agent but it’s hard to see him in another uniform (even if he says he’s open to it) -- and the Cardinals presumably want to do all they can to win while those guys are around and the 33-year-old Paul Goldschmidt is still productive. They have a $12.5M club option for Kolten Wong, who is a fine if not underrated player, but is no LeMahieu. Besides, St. Louis could easily keep Wong and put LeMahieu at third, where Matt Carpenter makes Miguel Andujar look like Gio Urshela. Doesn’t LeMahieu just seem like a Cardinal? He has the Cardinals vibe. I think they’re in this race.

Washington Nationals

2021 payroll commitments: $146.5M ($126.2M in guarantees plus $20.3M in arb projections)
LeMahieu suitor? Maybe? Hard to tell

A weird thing that flew completely under the radar this season is the Nationals won the World Series last year, then immediately chopped $20M off their payroll. Like, what? Next season is the last year on Max Scherzer’s contract, though I have to think an extension is coming. I also have to believe they want to lock up Juan Soto and Trea Turner long-term, but this is also the franchise that let Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon play out their arbitration years and leave as free agents, so who knows. What I do know is they have one legitimate big leaguer (Starlin Castro) for three infield spots (first, second, third). Maybe they bring Ryan Zimmerman back, maybe they commit to top prospect (Carter Kieboom). Those seem like obvious positions to upgrade though, and it just so happens LeMahieu can play all three. On paper, the Nationals are a yes, especially because the Scherzer/Stephen Strasburg/Patrick Corbin trio won’t be in their collective primes much longer. You want to maximize that window. The fact they cut payroll after winning the World Series leaves me a bit skeptical.

In my opinion, those eight teams above represent the most likely candidates to pursue LeMahieu this offseason. We shouldn’t rule out dark horse teams emerging -- who had Cano signing with the Mariners in 2013? -- with the Blue Jays and Cubs possibilities, but I think the odds are pretty good LeMahieu winds up with the Yankees or one of those eight teams. The Angels, Giants, and Mets make me most nervous, with the Phillies not too far behind.

2. A pitching staff with different looks. Among the downsides of semi-weekly blogging is having topics become old news by time I write it up. Case in point: Tampa Bay and their various arm angles. I noticed it during the regular season and was planning to look at it at some point, but then Mike Petriello wrote about it, and now FOX won’t shut up about it. They even put up this nightmare fuel graphic during World Series Game 3:

The Rays come at hitters from all angles. They have the pitcher with the fourth highest release point (Pete Fairbanks) in baseball this season, the righty with the fourth lowest release point (Ryan Thompson), and the lefty with the second lowest release point (Aaron Loup). Their staff seems to hit every slot in between too. They’re full of unique looks.

In Game 5 of the ALDS, the Rays threw four pitchers at the Yankees (Tyler Glasnow, Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks, and Diego Castillo in that order), and none of them faced more than nine hitters. No Yankees batter saw the same pitcher twice in that game. Here are the release points of those four Tampa pitchers in Game 5:

Four right-handed pitchers but two different “lanes,” and the difference between the highest release point and the lowest is about a foot. Glasnow is 6-foot-8 and Fairbanks is 6-foot-6 with that weird arm action. They come from way up high. Castillo’s shorter with a lower arm slot. In that game, the Yankees had to pick up the ball in a new spot in each at-bat. That can’t be easy.

To really drive home this point, here are the combined regular season and postseason release points of the 13 pitchers the Rays carried on their ALDS roster. Look at the variety:

Again, the Rays come at you from all angles, and I don’t think this is a coincidence at all. Weird angles and funky looks are part of their team-building strategy. In fact, manager Kevin Cash all but confirmed this is intentional a few years ago. From the 2018 Winter Meetings:

“There's no doubt we are convinced that different looks through an order, challenging lineups, gives us a good chance … (Logging innings is) a great mindset to have. But if we can do something better for the team and give different looks on a consistent basis, we found it was more challenging for the opposition, the lineup.”

The Yankees, on the other hand, have a group of pitchers with release points that are bunched together, which makes them like the vast majority of teams. The Rays are the outlier when it comes to release points, not the Yankees. Here are the regular season and postseason release points of the 14 pitchers the Yankees carried on their ALDS roster:

The highest release points belong to Jordan Montgomery. He’s 6-foot-6 and he throws from that extreme over-the-top angle. The yellow dots in the lower left corner are Adam Ottavino’s sliders. He has that lower arm slot. Mostly though, the Yankees have pitchers who release the ball from the same general area. There’s not much differentiation between them.

Tampa builds their pitching staff this way because they believe it makes them more effective. How much does it help though? That’s unanswerable, because a heck of a lot more goes into pitcher effectiveness than release point. Montgomery’s and Ottavino’s release points are farther apart than, say, Gerrit Cole’s and Aroldis Chapman’s, but which duo do you think will be more effective? Exactly. 

At the same time, going from Montgomery's release point to Ottavino's release point may make Ottavino more effective because hitters have to shift their line of sight so much. That's the idea here. Pitching is all about disrupting timing and making hitters uncomfortable, and this is another way to do it. Talent will always reign supreme, but varied release points can help as well. Here’s what Cliff Floyd, a 17-year big leaguer and career .278/.358/.482 (118 wRC+) hitter, said about Tampa’s arm angles during a recent MLB Network appearance (video link):

“When you walk into the box, you’re trying to do something totally different than you’ve done all game. You go up to the plate, and I’m thinking, ‘Do I get closer to the plate? Do I go back in the box? Do I move up in the box so I can catch the ball before it breaks?’ All these things, they’re to the advantage of the pitcher.”

Given what we know right now, I see the different arm angles as something that is beneficial if you can do it, but probably not something you should prioritize when building your staff. Keep in mind the Rays were hammered by pitching injuries this season. Many guys on their postseason roster were called up as replacements. They weren’t Plan A. Not every little unique feature is the next great innovation.

Ideally, you would fill your pitching staff with guys who have different looks to keep hitters guessing. The Rays managed to accomplish that and credit to them. I’m not sure that’s something I would prioritize, however. Get the best and most talented pitchers, first and foremost, then worry about variety. I wouldn’t want the Yankees to seek out pitchers with weird arm angles this winter just because the Rays did it. If it comes together that way, great. If not, that’s okay too.

3. Latest undrafted free agent signings. Like most teams, the Yankees have continued to add undrafted free agents these last few weeks. They signed six undrafted players in the immediate aftermath of the five-round 2020 draft: RHP Carson Coleman, RHP Ocean Gabonia, RHP Trevor Holloway, RHP Jarod Lessar, OF Elijah Dunham, and RHP Connor Pellerin. Dunham and Pellerin are the most notable signings. Here are the latest additions, via Baseball America (undrafted free agent bonuses are capped at $20,000 this year):

RHP Blane Abeyta, Nevada

A recent convert to pitching, Abeyta allowed three runs in eight innings as Nevada’s closer before the shutdown this spring. The junior struck out 12 and walked eight. Abeyta split his time between catching and pitching in high school and junior college, and had to be convinced to move to the mound full-time.

“I never envisioned becoming a pitcher in my life,” he told Isaiah Burrows. “I always hated it. I played outfield in Little League. I ended up moving to catcher and I loved it. I didn’t fully commit to pitching and didn’t take it seriously for a very long time. I needed some convincing from others along the way.”

Abeyta has seen his velocity increase from mid-80s in high school to low-to-mid-90s now as he’s focused on pitching full-time. He also throws a slider and curveball, with the former said to show more promise than the latter. Here’s video. Abeyta is likely a reliever long-term, but he has a fresh arm, and the fact he hasn’t been pitching very long hints at untapped potential.

LHP Clay Aguilar, Houston

Aguilar spent his freshman season with the Cougars as a seldom used swingman before moving into the rotation full-time as a sophomore. He had a 3.06 ERA with 73 strikeouts and 21 walks in 67.2 innings last year. It was a 1.59 ERA with 17 strikeouts and nine walks in 22.2 innings before the shutdown this spring.

“It’s awesome. It’s a dream come true … I can’t wait to get to work and eventually make it to the big leagues,” Aguilar told Mark Berman about signing with the Yankees. Kendall Rogers says Aguilar is a 90-92 mph sinker guy, and he has a changeup and curveball as well. Here’s video. The Yankees are thin on lefty pitching prospects and it seems like Aguilar has a chance to start. For at most $20,000, there are worse gambles to take than successful college southpaws.

LHP Ben Keizer, Michigan

Unlike Abeyta and Aguilar, who signed as juniors, Keizer is a more traditional undrafted free agent as a college senior who ran out of eligibility. The lefty reliever had a 5.03 ERA with 68 strikeouts and 41 walks in 62.2 innings in his four years with the Wolverines, so this is likely a “we like the stuff, ignore the numbers” signing. I can’t find a scouting report at all. Sorry.

I did, however, find this Ryan Zuke article on Keizer and former Michigan teammate Jimmy Kerr, who opened their own training facility in August. The facility, K2 Baseball, is geared toward youth baseball. “Still being around the game is huge, especially missing out on a season. Being around the game and being able to impact the local community and just continue to promote baseball, especially at a young age, is huge. So it was a no-brainer for us. We’re glad and lucky to be able to do it,” Keizer said. Neat. Maybe he’ll be a coach one day.

OF Aaron Palensky, Nebraska

A junior outfielder, Palensky hit .316/.428/.509 with 11 homers in 71 games with Nebraska after spending his freshman year at a junior college. He started every game in his two years as a Cornhusker. “A childhood dream came true today and I'm thrilled for what the future holds with the New York Yankees,” he said in a statement.

“They showed some seriously high interest, and I felt like they have a lot to offer in terms of player development,” Palensky added, according to Evan Bland. “I really felt like I could elevate my game there and felt it was the best route I could take to give myself a chance to make it to the big leagues.”

Palensky is a righty hitting corner outfielder and a “he does everything well but nothing great” guy. He can get the bat on the ball, he has some pop, he has some speed, and he can hold his own defensively. Seems like a classic fourth outfielder’s profile for a guy on the light side of the platoon. If teams believed Palensky could be more than that, he probably would have been drafted at some point. Still, a worthwhile roll of the dice.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Elliott Maddox. By request, this week’s random Yankee is a player perhaps better known for injuries and a Spring Training brawl than his tremendous production in pinstripes. Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Maddox was a first round pick in 1968 and he reached the big leagues less than two years later with the Tigers, though his time in Detroit was short. He was traded to the Senators following the 1970 season in the Denny McLain blockbuster, and he remained with the franchise through the 1973 season. Maddox was a member of the original 1972 Texas Rangers after the Senators relocated from Washington.

Despite strong on-base ability (.354 OBP) and great center field defense, Maddox never really settled in with the Senators/Rangers, and he wasn’t popular with management because he was outspoken politically. He often clashed with hitting coach Ted Williams and manager Billy Martin, who was also his manager with the Tigers.

“(Williams) was lecturing us on hitting one day and I said that’s not the way (Roberto) Clemente and (Hank) Aaron do it, and that made him mad,” Maddox told Larry Merchant in 1974. “He couldn’t understand that not everyone is 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds and has his reflexes. And I’d agitate him about Nixon. He thought Nixon was the greatest, and when I said something about him, he’d sputter all over the place.”

Maddox’s time with the Rangers came to an end in 1974. The club sold him to the Yankees for $40,000 in Spring Training, which gave him a clean slate. “After we got him, I heard he was a militant. But I don’t pay attention to that stuff,” manager Bill Virdon told Merchant. Virdon moved Bobby Murcer to right and installed Maddox, the superior defender, in center field, which did not go over well with fans. Both players thrived after the position change, however.

During that 1974 season the then-26-year-old Maddox hit .303/.395/.386 with 26 doubles and way more walks (69) than strikeouts (48). He was a +5 WAR player and finished eighth in the MVP voting, the highest finish among Yankees. The Yankees stole an All-Star caliber player in a cash trade in Spring Training. It was a total heist.

The Yankees and Rangers played a Spring Training game in 1975, a few days after Maddox made some unflattering comments about Martin. Specifically, he said he was told he would have a chance to compete for the center field job one year with Texas, but it didn’t happen. The bad blood spilled over onto the field. I’ll let Murray Chass describe the scene:

When two Yankee teammates came to him in the clubhouse today and said, “Watch out, Billy's after you,” Elliott Maddox knew the game with the Texas Rangers would not be a routine spring outing.

And it wasn't: Not from the first inning on when Jim Bibby hit Maddox on the left shoulder with a pitch, and not in the third when Maddox's bat flew out of his hands toward the mound, and not in the sixth when Stan Thomas fired a pitch over Maddox's head, and not in the seventh when Mike Wallace, a Yankee pitcher, threw two pitches close to Dave Nelson's head.

It was after the second pitch knocked Nelson down that the Yankees and the Rangers erupted in a melee that wasn't a spring picnic but the result of a newspaper article last week in which Maddox said Billy Martin, his former manager, was a liar.

“His first pitch was over the plate and that surprised me. The next pitch was a slider low and away and I figured I better watch out. That's a set‐up pitch to get you to lean over the plate,” Maddox told Chass. “If I hadn't been looking for it, the next pitch would've hit me in the head.”

Everyone of course denied the pitches were intentional -- “I guess he wasn’t too popular on our club,” Martin told Chass -- but it was clear what happened. Bibby hit Maddox on purpose, Maddox flung his bat at Bibby on purpose, Thomas threw over Maddox’s head on purpose, and Wallace threw over Nelson’s head on purpose. Martin became the Yankees manager (for the first time) in August 1975, five months after the incident. Awkward!

Maddox started very well in 1975, hitting .307/.382/.394 through 55 games, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury on June 13th. He slipped in the rain-soaked Shea Stadium outfield (the Yankees played their home games in Shea Stadium while Yankee Stadium was being renovated in 1974-75). Maddox never did play under Martin that season and his recovery lingered into 1976.

It wasn’t until September 1976 that Maddox returned from the knee injury for good -- he initially returned that June but had a setback -- and he was on the postseason roster that year, so he couldn’t have been too far in Martin’s doghouse. Maddox went 2-for-9 in the ALCS win over the Royals and 1-for-5 in the World Series loss to the Big Red Machine. It was the only postseason action of his career.

Maddox required another knee surgery following the 1976 season and later that winter the Yankees traded him to the Orioles along with outfielder Rick Bladt for Paul Blair. It was the third time he was traded away under Martin. Maddox only played 49 games for Baltimore in 1977, then signed with the Mets for 1978. He had three decent seasons with the Mets, spent 1981 in Triple-A with the Phillies, then called it a career.

In 210 games as a Yankee, Maddox authored a .299/.384/.381 (121 OPS+) batting line with +7.5 WAR. Even with the injuries, it was by the far the most productive stretch of his career. Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t note Maddox sued the Yankees, the Mets, and the City of New York over his knee injury. The court initially ruled in his favor, but the decision was later overturned on appeal to a higher court.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Couple coaching notes to pass along. Bench coach Carlos Mendoza has “talked with” the Tigers and Red Sox about their managerial openings, according to George King. I don’t know if that means he’s interviewed, if the teams simply reached out to see whether he’d be interested in interviewing, or something else entirely. Mendoza has been with the Yankees a long time now, starting as a minor league coach in 2009, and he’s worked with many players on the rosters since their time in the minors. Also, third base coach Phil Nevin and hitting coach Marcus Thames have interviewed with the Tigers about their managerial opening, according to Jason Beck. Thames played all those years in Detroit and Nevin managed in their farm system a few years back. The Yankees lean on Nevin, their resident old school guy, to get a different perspective on their analytics and whatnot. Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone said they didn’t expect any coaching staff changes during their end-of-season press conferences, but that was before guys started interviewing for jobs. We’ll see where this goes. Thames to Detroit feels like a distinct possibility … In other coaching staff news, the Marlins have hired Tommy Phelps and Phil Plantier away from the Yankees, reports George King, Derek Jeter and Gary Denbo have hired a small army of coaches and player development people away from the Yankees since taking over in Miami. Phelps and Plantier had been Triple-A Scranton’s pitching and hitting coach, respectively, the last few seasons. Plantier has been credited with helping Gio Urshela break out. The Yankees also let go Greg Pavlick, a longtime minor league coach who most recently oversaw rehabbing pitchers in Tampa. There is turnover among minor league coaches every offseason, but Phelps and Plantier (and Pavlick) have been in the organization so long -- they’ve worked with basically everyone on the MLB roster as they came up through the system -- that this represents notable change. Not a bad thing, necessarily, but it is a change … And finally, a new thing this postseason I hate: mid-inning commercials. I don’t mean the six-second commercial in a little picture-in-picture box. I mean the pitching coach comes out for a mound visit and the broadcast cuts away to a full commercial with zero warning. It’s jarring. I hate it and the worst part is they’re probably never going away. Ads are only getting more intrusive. Not just in baseball but in everything, and there’s too much money to be made. The mid-inning ads are hideous and so consumer unfriendly. Yuck.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)