Thoughts following ALDS Game 5
Added 2020-10-10 15:11:39 +0000 UTCA fitting end to one of the least enjoyable Yankees season of my lifetime (to be fair, a lot of the non-baseball stuff factors into that). The Yankees are going home early (again) because their closer gave up a back-breaking homer (again) and because they were outmaneuvered by the opposing team (again). The Rays absolutely posterized the Yankees this season and celebrating on the field with "New York, New York" blasting from a boom box after Game 5 was 100% earned. David embarrassed Goliath. To the thoughts.
1. Gerrit Cole is incredible. And he deserves better than a management team that seems to think the window to win a championship will remain open forever. Good enough is good enough is the organizational philosophy now. Be good enough to get to the postseason every year and maybe we'll run into a title along the way, which is kinda ironic because the Yankees wouldn't have made the postseason without the expanded format this year.
ANYWAY, Cole put together a grown ass man outing on short rest in Game 5, striking out nine and allowing just a solo homer in 5.1 innings. If anything, he looked too strong in the first inning, when he missed wildly with his fastball and wound up walking two and hitting one. He fell behind in the count 3-0 on Joey Wendle with the bases loaded, but bounced back to strike him out. Cole then retired 12 of the next 13 batters he faced, including five strikeouts among the next six batters. It was as good as he looked at any point this season, truly.
“I’m so proud of his effort," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin. “That was a championship, special player effort to get into trouble in the first inning and rack up pitches and make huge pitches to get out of it."
David Cone mentioned Cole may need to use his third and fourth pitch more often in Game 5 because the Rays were seeing him for the second time in the series, and because he was on short rest and would need to expand the repertoire a bit to get outs. That's exactly what happened. Cole threw seven changeups in the first time through the order and established that pitch early. He threw 10 changeups total in Game 1. Four whiffs on five swings against the changeup too. The adjustment worked.
The Austin Meadows homer came on a middle-middle mistake fastball -- leave a pitch there and hitters will hammer it, even at 96 mph -- and Brett Gardner saved Cole a second homer when he robbed Randy Arozarena in left. It was the final out Cole would record this year. He threw 94 pitches on short rest, including 11 fastballs at 99 mph or better, his most in a start in 2020. What an outing. What a waste.
"Of course (I) wanted to get deeper, and leaving with the game tied doesn’t feel as good as leaving with the lead," Cole told Martin. "Gosh, how many times did I pitch against these guys this year, six or seven? It’s like on a tape recorder with these guys. It’s tough as shit. It was a good fight. It sucks losing.”
2. Offense no-shows. To be fair, the Rays threw outrageously good arms at the Yankees all night, and it's not like Tampa knocked the ball all around the park either. Last night was the first winner-take-all postseason game in history in which both teams had no more than three hits (they each had three). Homers were the only way anyone was winning that game.
“It was just a great back-and-forth series with another great team that has a chance to go win a world championship,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce. “It came down to basically the last inning of the series. I don’t think anyone’s surprised by that necessarily. We came up short."
The Yankees bailed Tyler Glasnow out a bit and extended his outing. Specifically, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres both swung 3-0 in the second inning and made outs. I am pro-turning it loose 3-0 and Torres got a real good fastball to hit out over the plate ...
... but outs are outs. At one point Glasnow walked two and went to two other 3-0 counts in a five-batter span. Give Stanton and Torres the take sign and who knows? Maybe the bullpen is in the game earlier and Rays manager Kevin Cash can't run his guys out there the way he wanted. Two 3-0 swing outs in the one inning was tough to swallow though.
Aaron Judge went 4-for-30 (.133) in the postseason but three of those four hits were really important home runs, including his solo homer against Nick Anderson to open the scoring last night. Righties went 1-for-29 (.034) with a 45.2% strikeout rate against Anderson during the regular season. Torres had a single against him later in the game, so that's two righty hits in one game and after one all regular season. Judge has three career homers in winner-take-all games (2017 and 2018 Wild Card Games and 2020 ALDS Game 5), tied with Moose Skowron for the most in history.
I'm planning to get into this more next week but an offseason goal has to be adding balance to the lineup. The Yankees have too many similar right-handed hitters and that made it very easy for the Rays to match up in Game 5 (and every other opponent in every other game). They went to power righty after power righty after power righty. Same with the Astros last year. The lack of lineup diversity hurt the Yankees last night.
The Yankees scored at least four runs in their first six postseason games, including at least five runs in five of the six games, so last night was the first time they were shut down this October. Judge, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit went a combined 7-for-58 (.121) in the series and that was a killer. Bad time for the offense to dry up.
3. Mike Ford? Mike Ford??? It is preposterous Ford got an at-bat in Game 5. He pinch-hit for Kyle Higashioka against Diego Castillo in the eighth inning and struck out looking while Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez watched from the bench. The available options at that point in the game, ranked:
1. Pinch-hit Clint Frazier.
2. Pinch-hit Gary Sanchez.
3. Just leave Kyle Higashioka in.
4. Pinch-hit Mike Tauchman or Tyler Wade, if you must get the platoon advantage.
5. Pinch-hit Mike Ford.
I was fine with sending a pinch-hitter up for Higashioka in that spot. He was leading off the eighth inning of a 1-1 game and you want to try to get something started. But Ford? Over Frazier? Like, what's the thinking behind that? The only reasonable explanation is getting the left-on-right matchup against Castillo, but that's rendered moot by Ford's awfulness.
"It was definitely a tough decision. But in that spot, leading off the eighth inning -- Castillo is tough on everyone, obviously, but as tough as he is on righties -- I felt like we needed on-base presence there," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin, apparently unaware Ford had a .226 OBP this season.
Really though, Ford pinch-hitting is a symptom of a larger problem. For starters, he was only on the roster because the Yankees never bothered to get a replacement at the trade deadline -- how hard is it to upgrade a bench bat? -- just like they never bothered to get another starter after Luis Severino and James Paxton got hurt, or another reliever after Tommy Kahnle got hurt.
And secondly, the Yankees kept putting games in the hands of lesser players. Deivi Garcia threw one inning in the ALDS. Every team in the league would kill to have that kid and he threw one inning in a five-game series. That is inexcusable. Frazier's bat speed sat on the bench against all those hard-throwers. Miguel Andujar wasn't even on the ALDS roster. Higashioka at least played well enough that sitting Sanchez was justifiable, even if I disagreed with it. Everything else though? Woof.
Winning in this sport is hard as it is. Look how talented these teams are! Everyone throws 100 mph -- the average fastball was 97.2 mph last night, the highest in a single game since pitch tracking began in 2008 -- and every position player seems to be a freak athlete. It's unreal. Winning is hard. No need to make it harder by mismanaging your roster. The Yankees did too much of that this series. This entire year, really. Ford pinch-hitting was a microcosm of an ongoing roster management problem.
4. Rapid fire thoughts. I had no trouble with the bullpen management last night. Yeah, Zack Britton probably could have gotten the last out of the seventh inning, but I don't think going to Aroldis Chapman there was egregious. With the score tied late in a winner-take-all game, you have to go with your best arms. Have to. Maybe one of these years Chapman won't give up a legacy defining homer. That's three crushing homers in five years now (Rajai Davis in 2016, Jose Altuve in 2019, Mike Brosseau in 2020). Chapman has a World Series ring (2016 Cubs) but yeesh, it won't be an easy to shed that reputation ... Turns out there's no official diagnosis for Luke Voit's "foot stuff." He thinks it's plantar fasciitis but will go for tests in the coming days. Did the Yankees really let him play without knowing what it was? What if it was something he could have made worse? As someone who's had plantar fasciitis on and off over the years, props to Voit. I have no idea how he played on it ... And finally, a fun fact relegated to afterthought status: the Yankees threw a hidden no-hitter. At one point spanning the fourth inning of Game 4 to the fifth inning of Game 5, Rays hitters went 0-for-32. That's a no-hitter plus five more hitless at-bats. The Yankees pitched great in Games 4-5! What a shame.
(Now that the season is over, the blog will go back to the usual Tuesday and Friday format, unless there is breaking news to analyze. I'm not going to lie, writing every single day in the postseason makes me wonder how I ever wrote multiple posts every day for however many years at RAB. It seems insane looking back on it. Anyway, send your requests for the random Yankee series and mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. Thank you all for reading.)
Comments
Great work this year Mike, thank you! The most frustrating part about rooting for this team is that they want to embrace analytics and be on the cutting edge, but they just don't do it all that well. They are so clearly using the "over a large sample ...." thought process to construct the team. But, to win it all a small sample needs to be considered as well. Hence the righty heavy lineup built on great hitters. That'll win you plenty more games than it loses you, but in big moments in the playoffs it might be really helpful to have that balance. I think their bullpen usage was much better this postseason, especially what they did games 4 and 5. When they have their backs against the wall they do what is right, but when they are ahead in the series they dial it down. In the playoffs things get away from you too quickly to treat any game like its not do or die.
Nick G
2020-10-12 13:40:42 +0000 UTCI feel Boone deserves some blame for not getting this kid to the next level. The potential is/was there, and Boone goes out of his way to make Sanchez feel like a failure. I hope Sanchez puts in the work and earns the spot next year. I have no faith in Boone to use him effectively regardless.
Adeel Siddiqui
2020-10-12 02:20:04 +0000 UTCI blame the Pittsburgh pirates for the yankees current drought. They didnt give us Cole when we had the better package. Then they give away glasnow and meadows for archer. Those two trades dont happen, and the yankees have two or three rings. We will never win a championship if teams keep on giving away aces to other “small market” teams, but not the yankees. Close seconds are cashman not getting corbin and the tigers giving away verlander.
Adeel Siddiqui
2020-10-12 02:15:58 +0000 UTCThe over-reliance on right power bats is not a high priority IMO. The Yankees have a lot of great hitters - I don't care if they're all right-handed. I'll take DJLM, Judge, Stanton, Voit, Torres, Sanchez, Andujar and Gio any day, all day. The real problem is the lack of quality SP, after Cole. With his last 3 post-season starts, Tanaka is now a #4 to me. Severino, if he ever regains his form, is our #2. Deivi might develop to be our #3, but that's a year or 2 away. We clearly need another great SP for the next 1-2 years. Das it.
DocBob
2020-10-11 17:35:52 +0000 UTCThanks for all the great work again, Mike. Couldn’t agree more on this year being unenjoyable. This team never seemed to click even when they had a hot streak. Very disappointing that this group has not been able to get over the hump and that the front office seems willing to settle for less even with all its resources. Seems like they want to win playing Tampa’s style rather than maximizing their financial advantage. Unfortunately, Tampa is better at it. How does a team with such limited resources have more depth than the Yankees? Inexcusable.
John Cinque
2020-10-10 21:51:10 +0000 UTCWe also need to discuss Sanchez’s defense. The one-knee-approach, I’m not a fan especially when Chapman is spinning slider and splitters in the dirt up there. How often did Higgy save the Yankees by blocking balls in the dirt? Thing is, with Stanton entrenched at DH and Voit over at first, there isn’t an open, practical position to move him.
Douglas Rau
2020-10-10 21:23:00 +0000 UTCAaron Boone bristling at the question if the season should be considered a failure for not winning a championship: "I hate that question every year." So telling! This says it all! https://twitter.com/i/status/1314763262404292609
John M
2020-10-10 20:57:01 +0000 UTCThanks mike, been following since the beginning of RAB. Clint needs to start. Gardy needs to move on and be replaced by a bopping lefty. Tauchman can be backup of. 2b is a problem. Sp is a real problem. Next year really needs to be a go for it year. Judge is going to get old fast and with Stanton is so injury prone. For decades now it’s just unreal the teams inability to put together a solid and healthy rotation
Braddddddddd
2020-10-10 20:43:07 +0000 UTCThanks for your wonderful insight during this downer of a season! Its astonishing continuing to watch this organization with a championship window refuse to make needed additions at the trade deadline and under-utilizing their most talented players, especially against a tough pitching staff where you need the most talented bats you have. I feel like we are on a perpetual loop discussing the same issues after each these last few disappointing seasons: 1. too many similar righty hitters; 2. losing to teams designed to counteract a righty power/strikeout lineup 3. standing pat at the deadline with glaring needs; 4. head-scratching decisions on player deployment; and worst, an organization lacking commitment to go to all lengths for a ring and content to simply get into the postseason and roll the dice. Time and again we see talented players' development messed up by the organization (constantly trying to remake Gary, not giving Andujar needed at-bats after missing a season, not consistently playing Clint even when he hits, and using Devi as a 1 inning opener). Seriously, just let these guys play! And it seems safe to assume we are going to just see more of the same in the coming seasons baring unexpected changes in management. 2017 seems like it was another lifetime ago.
John M
2020-10-10 20:31:22 +0000 UTCResign DJ. Resign Masa. Resign Gardy back as a fourth outfielder. Let everyone else go. Swing a trade for a starter and reliever - the starting pitcher market is uninspiring if you feel like I do that Bauer's personality would not mesh well on this club.
Chris
2020-10-10 19:35:30 +0000 UTCAt this point it just seems personal, doesn't it? Frazier was clearly the better choice there and the platoon stats did not indicate a clear choice for Ford. Not to mention Frazier actually had success this postseason. It feels as if as long as Boone's managing this team, Frazier will not be given the chance he deserves.
Chris
2020-10-10 19:32:01 +0000 UTCI know he's been terrible in past seasons as well and seems to have regressed with his approach to the plate (almost entirely pull happy for a couple years now), but I'm willing to try and chalk up this as a lost year. Many talented players had very uncharacteristically poor years this season. Sure Gary has a track record of terrible seasons, but I'm still holding out hope. One more stinker like this, and he'll be play his way out of NY.
Chris
2020-10-10 19:29:23 +0000 UTCGood observation on the lineup balance and how both the Astros and Rays exploited it. The Yankees once were accused of having too many lefty pull hitters in the lineup once shifts became a thing, and it was true, so the move to more righty power hitters who could go the opposite way made sense. The problem now is they have too many hitters like that, and it won't be easy to correct. Judge is a fan favorite and draw and one of the best players in the game...when healthy; Stanton's contract is difficult to move from a dollar perspective coupled with his no-trade clause; and replacing Gary won't bring you a great hitting lefty catcher who is going to make a difference! I totally want Frazier to take over LF next year, yet that will only compound the problem, and it’s one reason I suspect Gardner will be back, even if it’s as the 4th OFer. The player I wanted to add two years ago, and would like to again is Michael Brantley. A lefty version of DJLM who basically never K’s. Problem is where does he fit?!! Can’t DH, and he’s frankly not a good defensive OFer. He’s also 34 next season. The bat? Totally would work. Looking forward to your analysis on this one, Mike. You’re spot on. The Rays and Astros built their teams to take on the Yankees. The Yankees have not counterpunched on it yet. Just one crazy idea in advance: Packaging a deal for Lindor and Plesac with Gleyber as the lead?
MikeD
2020-10-10 18:20:49 +0000 UTCI would enjoy it if a reporter framed it to Hal as "What is the feeling in the midst of one of the least successful periods in franchise history?"
W.B. Mason Williams
2020-10-10 18:15:01 +0000 UTCI'll take 34 HRs and a 118 OPS+ from my catcher. That's not a bad season and it's one teams would trade for., but I believe your comment illustrates part of the Gary problem with fans, and it's one I've felt myself. Expectations were so high, that even when he does well there is disappointment. The problem is 2018 and 2020. Even with 2020 being a shortened season, it's still the season, so in this case, 2 out or 3 is bad. Are you out there, Meatloaf? My guess is he'll bounce back to at least 2019, but to your greater point, what happened to the Sanchez of 2016 and 2017? The power was there and so was average. He needs to adapt, and that's the problem. The pitchers have adapted to him, but he hasn't back. I still think the talent is there. Only 27. I'll take 2019 again, but I'd love to have 2016-2017 Sanchez back.
MikeD
2020-10-10 17:53:35 +0000 UTCIt is odd. I don't even know who to blame. Is this Boone's in-game decision, or is this driven by the analytics team and the front office? Platoon advantage is one thing, but as Mike noted previously, talent trumps platoon advantage. Discouraging.
MikeD
2020-10-10 17:45:50 +0000 UTCThanks for the content Mike, have some rest, we all need it.
Luis Sergio Castillo Tejeda
2020-10-10 16:49:04 +0000 UTCLock step mike. Lock step.
Ryan H
2020-10-10 16:15:42 +0000 UTCThanks for everything, Mike, especially the post season coverage. Look forward to more of your thoughts on what the team needs to do to be in a better position next year.
J9D
2020-10-10 16:13:40 +0000 UTCI was disappointed that Voit was a no show after guaranteeing a victory. DJ also. Great individual seasons but they were pretty invisible this series.
brian m
2020-10-10 15:57:05 +0000 UTCThe audience on RAB seems to be more baseball savvy then a lot of other places. So many people want to move Miguel Andujar and/or Gary Sanchez as if they’re going to get any kind of value after the seasons they just had. I can’t help but think they’ll head into 2021 with Gary Sanchez on the roster because he’s a bat first catcher who hasn’t hit well for 3 seasons now. He did hit 35 home runs in 2019 but aside from those home runs, his slashes were not good. Trading him now is trading low.
Douglas Rau
2020-10-10 15:53:17 +0000 UTCAnother brutal end to a frustrating season. Mike, thanks for your great work all year, as usual. This Patreon seems to be an everybody-wins setup.
Dan Hanzus
2020-10-10 15:44:41 +0000 UTCI think it can’t be under-stated that this is the second year in a row that the Yankees clearly needed up-grades at the trade deadline and got nothing. Last season, they clearly needed another starting pitcher and didn’t get him. This season....there was very little they didn’t need and they didn’t get anything. Replace Mike Ford, replace Tommy Kahnle, get someone for the middle infield who could hit more then Tyler Wade or Thairo Estrada, add another starting pitcher, get Starling Marte who would have added desperately needed production....nothing, they got nothing. Unbelievable.
Douglas Rau
2020-10-10 15:36:14 +0000 UTCThe best team won, period. They kicked our asses all season long. You’re dead right on the roster management. Having Ford over Andujar (when Miggy just started to heat up) plus Deivi and Clint misuse were glaring mistakes. Was this the last year of Boone’s contract? Does Cashman escape to go spending with the new Mets’ ownership? Thank you Mike, great job, you’ve been the light in a rather annoying and uninspiring season, long live RAB.
Max P.
2020-10-10 15:31:37 +0000 UTCHow did you do it? You had a staff of writers to help you out, Mike.
Douglas Rau
2020-10-10 15:30:05 +0000 UTCThis was definitely an unenjoyable season for multiple reasons. Even when they won a bunch of games it didn't feel fun. They are trying to be too cute, too smart for their own good.
Brian Harvey
2020-10-10 15:28:38 +0000 UTCWonderful work - too bad the quality of the season didn’t quite equal the quality of your work. One of the real pleasures of my week in a time of little pleasure. Thanks!!!!
Douglas Schoppert
2020-10-10 15:21:05 +0000 UTCThanks for all you do Mike! Wouldn’t be a real Yankees season without RAB. Also I just do not understand why the Yankees continue to treat Clint Frazier with such disrespect. Thought after Boone’s comments midseason we were passed that, but I guess not.
William
2020-10-10 15:19:06 +0000 UTCCoverage from RAB was as good as the season was unenjoyable. Thanks again for all you do. Someday again it'll end with a parade. I just hope we can go.
Zack
2020-10-10 15:13:27 +0000 UTC
