Thoughts following ALDS Game 3

The 2020 Yankees really have perfected the art of responding to adversity in the least inspiring way possible. They followed all the pitching hullabaloo of Game 2 with a thud in Game 3, and now they're on the brink of elimination. They have three wins in 13 tries against the Rays this year and must now beat them twice in a row to advance to the ALCS. One game at a time though. Win tonight and give the ball to Gerrit Cole tomorrow. Here are today's thoughts.

1. Tanaka hammered. Masahiro Tanaka's reign as the October king was fun while it lasted. He gave up four runs in five innings in ALCS Game 4 last year, six runs in four innings in Wild Card Series Game 2 last week, and five runs in four innings in ALDS Game 3 last night. Yeah, there was some weather weirdness last week, but there were no such excuses last night.

Right away in the first inning it was clear Tanaka's usual control was not there. He was up in the zone with his slider a bunch and his stuff just isn't good enough to get away with that consistently. Here are Tanaka's pitch locations. Way, way too many out over the plate:

Note the lack of splitters. Tanaka threw seven splitters among his 73 pitches last night even though the Rays had seven lefties in their lineup. He typically uses the split to keep lefties in check and now the pitch is gone. It's just gone. The splitter is Tanaka's trademark pitch and yet he hasn't been using it as often lately, and it was a complete non-factor last night.

"There’s only frustration there," Tanaka told Anthony Rieber. "I thought my stuff was better compared to my last outing and I thought that I was well-prepared going into this game. That makes it even more frustrating. Just very frustrated that I wasn’t able to get the results tonight."

The eight hits Tanaka allowed came on six sliders, one splitter, and one curveball. The back-breaking Kevin Kiermaier three-run homer was on a loopy first pitch curveball -- Kiermaier told Tyler Kepner he was sitting on it because Tanaka throws him a first pitch breaking ball so often -- and the Randy Arozarena solo home run was on a flat slider again out over the plate. Might as well have put these pitches on a tee:

It looked like Tanaka and Kyle Higashioka had the strike 'em out, throw 'em out double play one pitch prior to the Kiermaier home run that more or less put the game to bed, but nope. I'll get more into that play in a bit, but here's the Yankees' win probability:

• After hypothetical strike 'em out, throw 'em out: 58.8%
• After the actual walk: 39.4%
• After three-run homer: 19.6%

That's a 39.2 percentage point swing from what could have been (what should have been?) to what was. Not getting the call does not absolve Tanaka from hanging a curveball to Kiermaier though, nor does it explain Tampa's Nos. 8 and 9 hitters going 6-for-16 with three homers in Games 2-3. The Yankees are getting shown up every which way.

The Yankees have allowed 25 runs in 31 innings when anyone other than Gerrit Cole is on the mound this postseason. They never had a prayer with this pitching staff and, frankly, it was obvious back in August. Even if the Yankees manage to come back and win this series, how in the world are they supposed to get through a seven games in seven days ALCS? (Cole wouldn't be able to start on normal rest until Game 4!)

Last night might've been Tanaka's final start as a Yankee and that would be an real bummer. I think the Yankees will try to re-sign him, but there's a serious conversation to be had about whether that's a smart move given his age (32 in November), the way his splitter has vanished, and The Elbow. There's always a price where it makes sense, though that's a discussion for another time.

For now, all there is to know is that Tanaka gave the Yankees little chance in Game 3. He was too in the zone with his slider and made too many mistakes at crucial times, with the hanger to Kiermaier most notable. After the Game 2 shenanigans, the Yankees desperately needed a good start last night. Tanaka gave them the opposite.

"They took advantage of a couple mistakes," Aaron Boone told Rieber. "He made some big pitches tonight, but one big mistake -- the three-run homer to Kiermaier in the fourth there -- and then Arozarena. I always expect when Masa takes the ball that he’s going to go out and pitch really well and give us an opportunity to win. They dinged him with a couple big swings today."

2. Offense missing mistakes. Giancarlo Stanton has driven in 10 of the last 13 runs the Yankees have scored in the ALDS. That speaks to his awesomeness and how little help he's getting from his teammates. He went deep again last night, though his eighth inning two-run shot falls into the "too little, too late" category. Here's the highlight reel of his six home runs. The historical significance:

• Stanton has homered in five straight postseason games, tying 2004 Carlos Beltran and 2017-18 George Springer for the second longest streak in history. Only Daniel Murphy has a longer postseason homer streak (six games in 2015).
• Stanton's six homers are tied for the most ever in a single postseason in franchise history. He's tied with 2009 Alex Rodriguez and 1996 Bernie Williams. Bernie and A-Rod each played 15 games in their postseasons. Giancarlo has played five.
• Stanton is the first player ever to go deep in each of his team's first five postseason games. Also, his 13 RBI are the most ever through five postseason games.

“I feel good," Stanton told Greg Joyce after last night's game. "Hitting’s difficult any way you look at it, but just really sticking to good plans over anything. If I stick to my plan, I’ll be fine. If you fall into (bad habits), bad things happen."

Stanton had two hits in Game 3 last night. The rest of the Yankees went 5-for-31 (.161) with a double and, as a team, the Yankees saw 148 pitches in nine innings. It works out to 3.89 pitches per plate appearance. They saw 4.13 pitches per plate appearance in their first three postseason games, which is excellent on a team level. Last night? Not so much.

Like Tyler Glasnow in Game 2, Charlie Morton was aggressive in the strike zone in Game 3, at least aside from the bases loaded jam in the third inning. He had a little trouble finding the zone from the stretch but was otherwise in attack mode all night, and had the Yankees on their heels. Hard to be patient and work the count when a guy is strike one, strike two.

You're not going to win many postseason games turning a bases loaded rally into just one run but that's what happened in the third inning, partly because the umpire gave Morton a few borderline calls (more on that soon, I promise) and mostly because the Yankees missed some really hittable pitches. Aaron Judge's sac fly came on a hanger (video link) ...

... and man, settling for a sac fly on that is such a letdown. That pitch should've been hit into orbit. Two batters later, Luke Voit rolled over on a 3-2 sinker and grounded out to end the inning. It was not a mistake like the hanger to Judge but it was a hittable pitch, and instead the Yankees got nothing. Those pitches were turned into big results earlier in October.

"We had a great opportunity there," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin. "Morton, the first two innings, kind of cruised and then we got to him a little and created some traffic. He made some pitches when he had to."

The Yankees struck out nine times last night -- it wasn't another 18-strikeout whiff-fest like Game 2 -- and put 27 balls in play. The average exit velocity was 89.3 mph and 10 of those 27 balls in play checked in at under 85 mph. Look at the locations of the pitches they did put in play:

So many middle-middle pitches! For the most part, the Yankees were swinging at the right pitches, they just didn't get any results at all. Too many hittable pitches turned into ground balls and lazy fly balls. Judge is 2-for-14 in the ALDS. Voit is 1-for-11 and Gio Urshela is 2-for-12. Those are the biggest offensive culprits.

I'm not a big "rearrange the lineup" guy but flipping Voit and Stanton in Game 4 is such an obvious move. DJ LeMahieu is DJ LeMahieu, so keep him at leadoff. Judge could snap out of it any moment, so keep him at No. 2. Aaron Hicks is 5-for-9 with three walks in the series, so keep him at No. 3. Flipping Giancarlo and Voit could get Stanton that one extra at-bat in a close game though. It's a little thing but worth doing.

“With Aaron, it’s one good at-bat, one swing gets him rolling," Boone told Dan Martin. "I don’t necessarily worry about it because I know as soon as it clicks -- and I feel like what I’ve been witnessing in batting practice the last couple days is him -- one good at-bat and he takes off.”

3. The umpire discourse. Sigh. I guess we have to talk about the strike zone again. It was a major factor in the Game 2 loss and home plate umpire Mark Carlson made his presence felt in Game 3. First, Charlie Morton got two borderline calls against Luke Voit after falling behind in the count 3-0 with the bases loaded in the third inning (GIF via Pitcher List):

Borderline pitches. The stupid strike zone box -- I hate the box as much as I hate the behind the plate camera angle -- makes them look more clear-cut than they are in real life, when the pitch is moving like that at 95 mph. Borderline pitches and Morton got the calls. The 3-2 pitch was a sinker over the plate that Voit beat into the ground to end the inning.

In the next half-inning Masahiro Tanaka did not get the call on a 3-2 slider at the knees to Willy Adames. It would have been a strike 'em out, throw 'em out double play -- the throw to second was in plenty of time -- but they didn't get the call, and instead of two outs and the bases empty, the Rays had two on with no outs. The pitch (video link):

Again, borderline. Probably more of a strike than either of the two pitches to Voit, but still borderline. Tanaka did not get the call and Kevin Kiermaier deposited his next pitch, a loopy get-me-over curveball, into the right field seats for a three-run home run. Who knows how the game plays out if Voit and Tanaka get the calls rather than Morton and Adames?

“When I was on the mound I thought that was a strike," Tanaka told George King about the pitch to Adames. "Obviously it was a borderline pitch. It could have gone both ways, but I did think it was a strike. But at the end of the day you have to go with what the umpire says."

I have no interest in litigating the strike zone. It has a very real impact on the game but arguing over it is a waste of brainpower. The Yankees haven't exactly been one or two calls going their way away from turning the series around. C.B. Bucknor sucked in Game 2. Carlson sucked in Game 3. The Yankees out-sucked them both in both games. Fin.

4. Montgomery in Game 4. Jordan Montgomery gets the ball in a win or go home Game 4 tonight because the Yankees left themselves no other option and it's pretty much the worst case scenario. He was very meh this year (5.11 ERA and 3.87 FIP), and while there's some evidence his defense hurt him disproportionately, that's more of a big picture evaluation thing than something that makes me feel better heading into one individual start.

"I’m excited to get an opportunity. I’ve been waiting since 2017, especially once I got hurt. I’m excited to go out there and pitch," Montgomery told Dan Martin earlier this week. "... This is what I’ve been working, really, my whole career for."

Montgomery's biggest issue during the regular season was the big inning. He allowed 27 runs in 44 innings overall and 13 of those 27 runs came in four innings. That's 48% of his runs in 9% of his innings. Montgomery allowed seven homers this year: three three-run homers, two two-run homers, and two solo homers. When he gave it up, he really gave it up.

The Rays saw Montgomery once this season and it was the most tail between your legs moment of the year. The night before was the near brawl because Aroldis Chapman threw over Mike Brosseau's head, then the Rays put a four-spot on Montgomery in the first inning the next day. He got two outs. It was disappointing but I don't think that matters any more than Montgomery being hurt by his defense all year. It's not a predictor of anything.

Tampa punished lefties all year (121 wRC+) and that worries me, especially because the ball has been flying in San Diego and Montgomery is not a ground ball pitcher (42.9% this year). It doesn't help that he throws roughly 60% breaking balls and changeups and the Rays are a very good non-fastball hitting team:

• Rays vs. fastballs: .236 AVG and .426 SLG (MLB averages: .267 and .429)
• Rays vs. breaking balls: .251 AVG and .427 SLG (MLB averages: .211 and .361)
• Rays vs. offspeed: .229 AVG and .419 SLG (MLB averages: .228 and .376)

On paper, the Rays are a bad matchup for Montgomery. Doesn't mean it can't work out tonight, just that signs point to the Rays have an advantage. The Yankees managed to back themselves into a corner where they have to start an okay lefty against a very good lefty hitting team. It's so bad I'm almost impressed, but whatever.

Aaron Boone indicated Deivi Garcia will be available tonight and, if true, I'd start him rather than wait until Montgomery gets into trouble to bring him out of the bullpen. Of course, Garcia is coming off his weird 27-pitch opener appearance two days ago, and who knows how that will impact him? Even if Deivi can only give you 3-4 innings, I'd take them.

"I would say (Garcia) would very much be in the mix, possibly tomorrow," Boone told Anthony Rieber yesterday. "But, again, that’s something that with him being a starter -- obviously, didn’t throw a lot (in Game 2) -- but I would think he’d probably be available tomorrow."

Montgomery did not have a good season and the Yankees outsmarted themselves into an unfortunate pitching situation with their season on the line. Tonight's game is a chance -- literally the last chance -- to flip the narrative on the pitching and get Gerrit Cole on the mound in a winner-take-all Game 5. I don't feel great about Montgomery being the guy on the mound with the season on the line, but it's what the Yankees have.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees are doing the "day-to-day" thing with their starting catcher again, Aaron Boone said yesterday, which is impossibly stupid. This isn't a sport where you make "day-to-day" lineup decisions. Gary Sanchez gives you a chance at a game-changing swing every time he steps to the plate -- he had a go-ahead two-run home run and a game-tying ninth inning sac fly last week! -- and Kyle Higashioka's best attribute is *checks notes* riding Gerrit Cole's coattails. Between this and Deivi Garcia throwing fewer innings in the series than Nick Nelson and Jonathan Loaisiga, the Yankees seem content to lose the ALDS with their most talented options in reduced roles. Ridiculous ... Why was Brett Gardner allowed to face lefty Shane McClanahan in the eighth inning last night? Pinch-hit Clint Frazier and the Rays go to righty Diego Castillo, who was warmed and ready to go, but give me Clint against a righty (career 113 wRC+ vs. RHP), even with the pinch-hitter penalty, over Gardner against a lefty (64 wRC+ vs. LHP last two years) when you need runs ... Pinch-hitting Mike Ford for pinch-hitter Clint Frazier, who replaced Higashioka, was hilarious and another example of the Yankees looking like a dunce while trying to be the smartest guy in the room. Burned Clint to do what, get the platoon advantage with a guy who slugged .270 this year? Just leave Frazier in there. Between that and the Game 2 pitching shenanigans, it seems the Yankees prioritize the platoon advantage with zero regard for the skills of the players involved.