Thoughts following ALDS Game 1

Three games, three wins this postseason. Usually that means an ALDS sweep, or maybe a 2-0 ALDS lead after a Wild Card Game win, but this year it means a 1-0 ALDS lead after a Wild Card Series sweep. I'll take it, whatever it is, especially since the Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season right now. "It's one game. We gotta win three," Aaron Boone reminded everyone after last night's win. Let's get to today's thoughts as Paul Hembekides notes the Yankees are 10-3 and averaging 6.6 runs per game when they have Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup in the postseason.

1. Welcome to Slam Diego. Someone forgot to tell the Yankees you're not supposed to hit home runs against good pitching in the postseason. The Yankees clubbed four more homers in Game 1 last night and are the first team in history to hit at least three homers in each of their first three postseason games. They're the second team to hit at least three homers in three straight postseason games, joining the 2008 Rays of all teams. A few more nuggets on the offense:

• The Yankees have scored an MLB record 31 runs in their first three postseason games. The 1960 Yankees held the previous record with 30 runs in their first three postseason games.
• The Yankees are the first team ever to score at least nine runs in each of their first three postseason games. Cleveland and the Rays ranked 1-2 in ERA in the American League this year, by the way.
• Aaron Judge tied Lou Gehrig's franchise record with 10 home runs in his first 30 career postseason games. Judge's last four postseason homers have come against three Cy Young winners (David Price, Blake Snell, Justin Verlander) and this year's presumptive Cy Young winner (Shane Bieber).
• Last night was the first time ever the Yankees received homers from their No. 8 (Clint Frazier) and No. 9 (Kyle Higashioka) hitters in the same postseason game.
• The Yankees have hit multiple grand slams in a single postseason for the second time. They also did it in 1956 (when the postseason was just the World Series).

After grinding out at-bats against Bieber and Carlos Carrasco in the Wild Card Series last week, the Yankees did the same against Snell last night. He threw 84 pitches in five innings -- that includes an eight-pitch third inning -- and the Yankees swung and missed only five times against one of the game's premier swing-and-miss pitches. Only twice in his career has he had fewer whiffs in a start.

Similar to Bieber, some of the takes against Snell's curveball were off-the-charts good. Look at this. And this. DJ LeMahieu started the game with a leadoff single after falling behind in the count 0-2, working it back full, and fouling away three two-strike pitches. Ten-pitch battle (and a hit!) to begin the game is how you set the tone for an offense.

"I think (Snell) felt the weight of everything, of the grinded out at-bats," Aaron Boone told Andy Martino.

To be sure, Snell was not at his best, and it helped that he wasn't able to throw his curveball for strikes until the fourth and fifth innings. The Yankees still didn't chase though. Snell's curveball is so good that he can get chases on bad pitches. Here are his curveball locations:

Judge hit one of the few curveballs Snell actually threw for a strike into the left field seats for a solo homer, so it was a no-win situation. Throw it in the zone and the Yankees might hit it a mile. Throw it in the dirt and they won't chase. The Yankees are not giving an inch at the plate right now. They swung and missed 15 times against 176 pitches all game. Gerrit Cole got 18 whiffs all by himself.

Tyler Glasnow, tonight's starter, is an extreme north-south pitcher. He sits 96-99 mph with his fastball and throws at it at the top of the zone (and above), and his curveball is a low-80s hammer he buries down for swings and misses. The thing is, Glasnow does not throw his curveball for strikes all that often ...

... and that plays right into the approach the Yankees have shown in their three postseason games. They've been spitting on breaking balls below the zone consistently. For the pitcher, the obvious adjustment is throwing the breaking ball for strikes, but it has to be down at the knees, not in the heart of the zone, and that's not easy. What the Yankees did against Bieber and Snell appears to match up well with Glasnow too. (Glasnow throws fewer than 5% offspeed pitches. I wouldn't sweat the changeup.)

The fully operational Death Star thing is kinda silly -- the Death Star blew up! twice! -- but the Yankees are indeed a fully operational Death Star right now. The offense is healthy and it is capital-C Clicking. The stars are doing star things (Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, etc.), the backups are chipping in (Clint Frazier, Kyle Higashioka, etc.), and absolutely nothing has been easy for opposing pitchers. This is the offense we waited all season to see and it's shown up at the perfect time.

"That was huge to come out like we did, wearing their pitchers down the whole game," Stanton told Dan Martin. "That was big time. That was definitely what we needed to do ... We’ll enjoy this for a little bit, but we’ve got work to do.”

2. Cole grinds it out. Ji-Man Choi really does own Gerrit Cole, huh? Hitter vs. pitcher stats are a weird thing because they're usually small samples spread across multiple years, which doesn't make them especially predictive, but I absolutely believe a hitter can "own" a pitcher and vice versa. Choi owns Cole. He's now 10-for-19 with four homers against him. What the hell man? Some guys just throw your speed.

Cole was not razor sharp in Game 1 but he was plenty good enough, and was able to reach back for 99-100 when he needed a big strikeout. The biggest moment of the night came in the fifth inning. With the Yankees nursing a one-run lead, the Rays loaded the bases with two outs -- the Yankees intentionally walked Choi after falling behind in the count 2-0 -- and Cole struck out Manuel Margot on an elevated heater. It was A Moment (video link).

"We were able to stop them when it really counted," Cole told Dan Martin. "It was a big pitch in a big moment and it was executed perfectly. I’m glad because I got myself into a bit of a mess there."

Three runs on two homers in six innings is meh at best, and when the Rays put a ball in play, it was well-struck. Cole allowed 16 balls in play and the average exit velocity was 96.4 mph. It was his highest average exit velocity in a start since Statcast launched in 2015 (min. 10 balls in play). The Rays had six balls in play at 100+ mph and seven more at 90+ mph. They were on him.

But, Cole was able to limit the damage. He struck out Willy Adames and got Kevin Kiermaier to roll over on a grounder with a runner on base in the fourth. He struck out Margot with the bases loaded in the fifth. The homer bug bit Cole but the Rays had one (1) at-bat with runners in scoring position all night, if you can believe that. Six hits and two walks were scattered, and the eight strikeouts were timely.

Game 1 was a classic example of an ace starter not having his best stuff -- Cole had some trouble locating his heater early on -- and still finding a way to get through six innings and give his team a chance to win. Cole had his best moment in the game's biggest moment (bases loaded in the fifth) and the entire game swung that inning. The Yankees took the lead in the top half, the Rays stranded the bases loaded in the bottom half, and that was that.

"Ultimately, you want to be playing your best baseball when it’s most important," Cole told Bryan Hoch. "That’s how you get to the ultimate prize. I’m thankful to be a part of the organization, and thankful for the opportunity to lead the charge into the postseason."

3. Garcia in Game 2. Surprisingly, the Yankees will send rookie Deivi Garcia to the mound in Game 2 tonight rather than Masahiro Tanaka or J.A. Happ, their two veteran been there done that options. It's a bold move, to be sure. It's the sort of move that will be questioned because the Yankees did it and would undoubtedly be praised if the Rays did it. 

"The way he’s pitched and the way he’s handled himself and handled every situation so far," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin when asked what went into the decision. "We just felt like we had a lot of good options there and ways we could have gone ... I don’t worry about him not being able to handle it mentally and emotionally."

At 21 years and 140 days, Garcia will be the youngest postseason starter in Yankees history (Whitey Ford was the previous youngest at 21 years and 351 days) and the 11th youngest postseason starter ever. The last guy this young to start a postseason game: Julio Urias in 2016 (20 years and 68 days). Before him it was Madison Bumgarner in 2010 (21 years and 91 days).

To be clear, this is not a Boone decision. It's an organizational decision. Pitching coach Matt Blake and various front office folks were surely involved. Boone declined to explain the decision, so we're left to speculate about possible reasons, and speculate we will. The first possible reason is easy: the Yankees believe Garcia gives them the best chance to win. Tampa mashes lefties ...

• vs. RHP: .238/.324/.415 (105 wRC+) with 26.4 K% and 10.4 BB%
• vs. LHP: .237/.340/.455 (121 wRC+) with 28.5 K% and 11.6 BB%

... making Deivi a better option than Happ or Jordan Montgomery, and Tanaka with two extra days of rest is better than Tanaka with one extra day of rest (in theory). The Rays did not see Garcia during the regular season and that is usually advantage pitcher. The lefty/righty splits and unfamiliarity and giving Tanaka rest are all possible reasons this is the correct move.

Secondly, Tanaka and Gerrit Cole are the team's two most trusted workhorses, and the Yankees are splitting them up in an effort to save the bullpen. Garcia did complete six innings in four of his six regular season starts, but the regular season and postseason are different animals. I have to think Tanaka's leash is longer than Deivi's, hence splitting him and Cole up.

And third, the Yankees may not intend to use Garcia as a full starter. He could instead function as an opener or a once through the lineup guy, then potentially come back in the same role in Game 5. Game 5 would be the Game 2 starter's normal between-starts throw day. Deivi made several 2-3 inning appearances on three days rest as a Triple-A reliever last year, so it wouldn't be completely new to him.

Using Garcia as a once through the order guy opens up some interesting possibilities given how much the Rays pinch-hit. The Yankees could start Garcia, bring a lefty out of the bullpen (Montgomery or Happ), then go back to a righty after Tampa brings all their righty bats off the bench. That would potentially create a lane for Adam Ottavino, which is usually hard to do against the Rays.

And, if the Rays leave all (or even some) of their righty bats on the bench once Garcia is out of the game, that's good for Montgomery or Happ. They'd get to face more lefty batters. Long story short, using Garcia as an opener creates potential matchup headaches for the Rays, the sort of headaches the Rays typically give opposing teams. I like it, in theory. In practice, it can be hard to swing.

The Game 2 win lessens the pressure on Garcia to some degree but also not really? You don't want to let Tampa back into the series. You want to step on their throat and then send Tanaka to the mound with a chance to eliminate them in Game 3. If Deivi dominates, the Yankees will look like geniuses. If he struggles, they'll be second guessed all winter. So be it. It's a bold decision and I like it, and I'm curious to see the plan. Maybe Garcia really will be only an opener.

"What can I say? I’m so excited about it. At the same time very thankful for the opportunity." Garcia told Ken Davidoff. "They’re going to be competing, I’m going to be competing. I’m not going to think about having an advantage because they haven’t seen me pitch. It’s about me executing the best that I can as long as I can." 

4. Impact of no off-days. There are no in-series off-days during the LDS and LCS this year and I think we saw the impact of the schedule on multiple occasions last night. One, there's no chance the Rays push Blake Snell through the fifth inning with an off-day after Game 2. Hell, they might not have let him complete the fourth, when he struck out Clint Frazier (who went deep earlier in the game) to strand the bases loaded.

Six of the previous 11 batters Snell faced reached base prior to Giancarlo Stanton striking out to end the fifth inning with a runner on second in a one-run game. Stanton annihilates lefties -- he's a career .294/.392/.630 (170 wRC+) hitter against southpaws -- and he was seeing Snell for the third time in the game. Hard-throwing righty Diego Castillo was warmed up in the bullpen. I don't see a reason to stick with Snell over Castillo there other than to save the bullpen a bit.

Two, I thought the Yankees would send Cole back out for the seventh inning with his pitch count at 97. He worked hard all night, sure, but he finished strong, retiring six of the final seven batters he faced, and it was an opportunity to save the bullpen a few outs. The Yankees pulled him though and I can't help but think that was intended to save bullets for a potential Game 5 start on short rest, something Cole believes he'd be able to do. 

"Probably would just alter that timing and the amount of throwing (between starts). But it should be a manageable adjustment," Cole told Brendan Kuty over the weekend. "I typically feel good enough to take the ball on that day anyway. So, you want to go in I guess with a sharp blade as opposed to not pitching a day. So fine-tuning isn’t the focus typically going into that day. So maybe a little bit of a tweak there and I guess not change too much, really." 

If you've read me long enough you know I'm a "just let the reliever start the inning fresh rather than bring him in with men on base" guy. Cole is a special case though, and I'm cool with maxing him out in a postseason game and going batter-to-batter, if necessary. Not sending him back out to start the seventh felt like the Yankees putting Cole in the best position heading into a Game 5 start, which would be on short rest because of the no in-series off-days.

Three, Chad Green threw the seventh inning, not Zack Britton. The Yankees have been very willing to use Britton for multiple innings in the postseason -- he entered in the sixth inning in Wild Card Series Game 2 last week! -- but didn't try it last night. With a one-run lead, it was Green in the seventh against the top of the order. Britton was nowhere to be found. Had there been an off-day coming after Game 2, me thinks Britton and Aroldis Chapman would've handled those final nine outs (at least until the offense blew it open).

And four, Rays manager Kevin Cash hung John Curtiss out to dry in the ninth inning. Four of the first five batters he faced reached base and it was still a two-run game when Stanton stepped to the plate with the bases loaded. Curtiss had thrown 20 pitches up to that point and was not effective. Cash stuck with Curtiss, who needed 42 pitches to get two outs, and let the game slip away. Hard to see it as anything other than Cash trying to save his bullpen.

Now that the Yankees have the 1-0 series lead, we'll see whether the strategy changes going forward. I imagine the Rays will put the pedal to the metal and be more aggressive with their top relievers. Those four moments last night -- Snell pitching the fifth, Cole not going out for the seventh, Britton not going multiple innings, Curtiss being hung out to dry -- all stood out as things that probably wouldn't have happened with the normal slate of off-days. The schedule is having a real impact on pitcher usage, as expected.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Whale of a game for Kyle Higashioka. He had a single and a homer, scored an insurance run from second on a single, made several great blocks behind the plate, and made this crazy catch on a cross-up (video link):

That was potentially disastrous with the bases loaded in a one-run game. That pitch was totally a strike, but you rarely ever get that call because the catcher has to move so much (and because he often blocks the umpire's view). The most important thing is Higashioka actually caught it and held the runners. Yankees catchers are a combined 4-for-13 (.308) with two homers out of the No. 9 hole in the postseason. That'll work, gentlemen ... Ho hum, two more hits and (at least) two more stellar defensive plays for Gio Urshela, who made another play from his backside (video). Still only his second best play sitting down this postseason though (remember this?). The entire Urshela story is truly unbelievable. This is 99th percentile outcome stuff ... Underrated awesome moment: Gleyber Torres stealing second base on Shane McClanahan's first pitch in the big leagues. I love it. Take it to the kid right away and make him uncomfortable. I'm glad no one was asked about the unwritten rules and stealing bases up six runs and all that after the game too. It's the postseason. Don't like it? Don't fall behind by six runs. Ruthless steal there against the kid making his MLB debut ... There is not a doubt in my mind John Curtiss intentionally threw up-and-in at Urshela following Giancarlo Stanton's grand slam. It fits Tampa's M.O. Take them deep and they start buzzing hitters upstairs. MLB did not warn the two teams prior to the series despite all the bad blood -- Lindsey Adler says MLB told them they expect a "clean series," and that's it -- but clearly, the Rays are still doing this, so it's something the Yankees have to keep in mind. Just keep hitting dingers and make them look like babies ... And finally, I don't love pulling Luke Voit for defense before the ninth inning in one-run games. I totally understand it -- he's dealing with his "foot stuff" and eighth inning guy Zack Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher -- but I don't like it. Let Voit get as many at-bats as possible in close games. Besides, are we really sure DJ LeMahieu is that much of an upgrade defensively at first base anyway? And if you want to optimize the defense, shouldn't Tyler Wade take over at short with Torres sliding over to second? It didn't really matter last night. I just don't like leaving Voit at-bats on the table in close games.