Thoughts prior to Wild Card Series Game 1

UPDATE: Finally had a chance to add thoughts on the Wild Card Series roster. Item No. 1 below has been updated.

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The Yankees open the best-of-three Wild Card Series in Cleveland later tonight. It is their fifth ever meeting in the postseason. The Yankees won the 1998 ALCS and 2017 ALDS, and Cleveland won the 1997 ALDS and 2007 ALDS. 2017 was a good time, eh? Everyone was terrified of Cleveland's pitching going into that series too and it was meltdown city after Game 2, including on RAB. Anyway, here's the Wild Card Series schedule:

• Game 1: Shane Bieber vs. Gerrit Cole (7pm ET on ESPN)
• Game 2: Carlos Carrasco vs. Masahiro Tanaka (7pm ET on ESPN)
• Game 3: Zach Plesac vs. TBA (TBA on ESPN) (if necessary)

MLB announces the postseason schedule as they go so they can optimize the start times and I would bet the farm on Game 3 being another 7pm ET start. MLB wants the Yankees in prime time, always and forever. ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball crew has this series (Matt Vasgersian and Alex Rodriguez). It is what it is.

Yesterday's workout at Progressive Field was cut short by rain but the forecast is clear the next two nights. Cloudy but no rain, and that's the most important thing. Postseason baseball with no fans sure is gonna be weird, huh? Let's get into some pre-Wild Card Series thoughts.

1. Postseason roster announced. At long last, the Yankees have announced their 40-man postseason pool and their 28-man active roster for the Wild Card Series. The 40-man pool was due last weekend, the 28-man active roster earlier today. Here are the 28 players the Yankees will count on to beat Cleveland:

The only difference between the Wild Card Series roster and the roster the Yankees had at the end of the regular season is Ford over Clarke Schmidt. Ford over Miguel Andujar has to be a handedness thing, though I suppose the Yankees could also be worried about Voit's ongoing "foot stuff." Would've preferred Andujar, but whatever. Shrug.

The 12-man postseason taxi squad: Andujar, Schmidt, C Rob Brantly, LHP Ryan Buchter, IF Matt Duffy, IF Thairo Estrada, RHP Mike King, RHP Brooks Kriske, LHP Tyler Lyons, IF Jordy Mercer, LHP James Paxton, and RHP Miguel Yajure. Pretty straightforward. Brantly over Josh Thole or Wynston Sawyer is a mild surprise, ditto Buchter over Luis Avilan. Nothing to get worked up over.

Paxton's inclusion is a legitimate surprise to me. I figured the recent move to the 45-day injured list meant his season was over, but nope. Paxton resumed throwing recently and Aaron Boone said he could be an option later in the postseason. Should the Yankees advance to the ALCS or World Series, they want Paxton to be an option if he gets healthy. The 28-man roster can change between rounds. The 40-man player pool can not. They couldn't have added Paxton later. It was now or never.

2. The plan vs. Bieber. Shane Bieber led baseball in ERA (1.63), FIP (2.07), strikeouts (122), strikeout rate (41.1%), and WAR (+3.2) this season, and he didn't allow more than three runs in any of his 12 starts. Cleveland is a pitcher development powerhouse and no one better exemplifies that than Bieber, a former fourth rounder who was so-so in college.

"He was an integral part in me using my curveball more," Bieber told Dan Martin over the winter about Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake, Cleveland's former director of pitching development. "Matt had a lot of ideas of how to add that to my repertoire and the pitch had a lot to do with the success I had last year. He worked with me on when to throw it, how to get more spin on it and what counts it was most effective."

Bieber has five pitches but works as a four-pitch guy. He throws fastballs, curveballs, and cutters to righties and lefties, plus sliders to righties and changeups to lefties. Bieber is an elite command guy -- his command got him drafted in the fourth round, not his stuff -- and he tunnels everything well too. Look at this (GIF via Rob Friedman):

"OMG why are they swinging at these pitches that are OBVIOUSLY out of the zone???" they yell into the void as the slider looks like a fastball on the corner until it's 10 feet from home plate. Great stuff plus great command equals an ace. Bieber has it all and the Yankees will have their hands full.

Bieber throws fewer than 40% fastballs, even in fastball counts. You have to look offspeed and breaking ball against him, which is much easier said than done, but hunting fastball is not going to work. You're more likely to get something with a wrinkle in it than the heater. Here is Bieber's pitch usage by count:

The Yankees were an average team against non-fastballs this year, hitting .218 with a .371 SLG (.279 xwOBA) against breaking balls and changeups. The MLB averages are .217 with a .367 SLG (.271 xwOBA). Not surprisingly, Gio Urshela (.385 xwOBA) and DJ LeMahieu (.317 xwOBA) were the team's best performers against non-fastballs. Gary Sanchez (.220 xwOBA), Brett Gardner (.260 xwOBA), and Gleyber Torres (.267 xwOBA) were the laggers.

Beyond looking offspeed, elevating Bieber's pitch count will be important, and I say that fully understanding a) he throws a ton of strikes, and b) Cleveland's bullpen is pretty good. Still, I'd rather face the bullpen than Bieber, and the more pitches you see, the more likely it is he makes a mistake. Twice in his last four starts Bieber reached 100-ish pitches in five innings. He doesn't throw many non-fastballs in the zone. Sit offspeed and don't expand.

Bieber vs. Gerrit Cole is the ultimate "the team that hits a homer(s) will win" matchup, because it is damn near impossible to string together three or four hits against those guys (they both allowed exactly two-thirds of their runs on homers during the regular season). Bieber allowed only seven homers in his 77.1 innings, but three times he allowed two homers in a game, and they came against homer hitting teams (Reds, Twins, White Sox). To beat Bieber, you have to hit his mistakes over the fence, not slap them the other way for a single.

3. Pushing Cole. The Yankees gave Gerrit Cole a pitching record $324M contract to win games like tonight's. It's only the Wild Card Series, not the World Series, but he's going toe-to-toe with a fellow uber-ace on the road. To start a best-of-three series too. Lose tonight and your back is up against the wall. Win and you have two chances to advance.

Cole starts tonight with two extra days of rest (Shane Bieber has one extra day) and he made his last start with one extra day. He won't pitch again the rest of the Wild Card Series -- I can't see the Yankees bringing Cole out of the bullpen in Game 3 in anything other than an emergency -- so, if the Yankees advance, he'd start ALDS Game 1 with one extra day.

Point is, Cole is well-rested right now, especially because it was a 60-game season. He made his first postseason start with 212.1 regular season innings under his belt last year. He goes into tonight having thrown only 73 regular season innings. Everything is set up to push Cole hard tonight. I think 120-125 pitches should be on the table.

Of course, Cole has to pitch well enough to warrant throwing 120 pitches, and the offense has to give him some breathing room, which won't be easy against Bieber. As good as he is, there's a point where a fresh Zack Britton or Chad Green is a better option than Cole 100-something pitches into his start, especially in a one or two-run game.

I'm just saying, the Yankees shouldn't be shy about letting Cole run up his pitch count and go very deep into the game under the right circumstances. Save the bullpen and treat your ace like an ace. I have little doubt Cole can handle it physically and I'm certain he'd love the challenge. He's a throwback who wants to pitch as much as possible.

“The object is -- if you are taking the ball early -- is to set the tone for the pitching staff and for the team," Cole told George King at yesterday's workout. “I have been practicing that this year so I will just try to get better at it.’’ 

4. Cleveland's bullpen. Beyond having a stellar rotation, Cleveland's bullpen appears to match up quite well with the Yankees. Lefty closer Brad Hand had a marvelous season (2.05 ERA and 1.37 FIP with 33.7% strikeouts) and their top three setup options are high strikeout righties. High strikeout righties with different looks too. The group:

• James Karinchak: 2.67 ERA (1.52 FIP) with 48.6 K%
• Phil Maton: 4.57 ERA (2.22 FIP) with 33.3 K%
• Nick Wittgren: 3.42 ERA (4.42 FIP) with 28.6 K%

I wrote about Maton a possible Yankees target a while back because he has two high spin breaking balls. He's run into some bad luck this year (.412 BABIP) but is going to spin the crap out of his curveball and slider against New York's righties. Wittgren was good this year, not great, and he succeeds with a real good changeup. He's their Tommy Kahnle, basically.

Karinchak is ridiculous. On the short list of the best relievers in baseball -- he might be the best reliever in baseball right now -- and he gets funny looking swings with his fastball and curveball both in and out of the zone. It's a real funky delivery with an extreme over-the-top arm slot too. Great stuff from an unusual angle. Look at this (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Nothing about it looks natural but damn is it effective. Karinchak throws the fastball and curveball at a 50/50 split, so it's impossible to sit on one. Look for an elevated heater and he'll drop a curve in for a strike. Sit on the curve and the fastball is by you at your eyes. It's an uncomfortable, unpredictable at-bat.

Cleveland has shown they are willing to be flexible with their bullpen rather than stick to rigid roles, and I expect them to use Karinchak like they used Andrew Miller from 2016-18. That moment of truth guy who faces the other team's best hitters, regardless of inning. Maton and Wittgren then fill in the gaps, with Hand going for a four-out save, if necessary (he went four outs Sunday to clinch the No. 4 seed).

The good news: Karinchak will walk guys. He had a 14.7% walk rate this year. All the walks and strikeouts equal high pitches counts, so throwing multiple innings will be challenge. Not impossible, but a challenge. Miller was so good because he was dominant and efficient, and could get you through two innings without approaching 40 pitches. Karinchak isn't built that way.

Cleveland is also planning to use starters Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie out of the bullpen in the Wild Card Series -- McKenzie struck out 42 in 33.1 innings this year -- though their roles are uncertain. They might only be the deep extra innings guys. Karinchak, Maton, and Wittgren have been their go-to setup men and I don't expect that to change.

The Yankees will have at most two lefties in the lineup (Brett Gardner and the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks) and Tyler Wade isn't pinch-hitting for anyone, so it's up to the righties to do damage against Cleveland's bat-missing righty relievers. Their starting rotation is a difficult assignment as it is. Add in a bullpen that matches up well with the offense and damn, runs might be at a premium this series.

5. The Game 1 lineup. Speaking of the starting lineup, something tells me Brett Gardner is going to start over Clint Frazier in left field tonight. Frazier hit .264/.394/.511 (149 wRC+) this season, but went 1-for-20 (.050) with 11 strikeouts in his final six games, and the frustration boiled over to the point that he snapped a bat over his leg. 

Gardner, meanwhile, went 10-for-26 (.385) with six walks and six strikeouts in his final nine games, and he hit .229/.370/.431 (124 wRC+) against righties on the season. The average is low but Brett got on base and hit for power against righties. Plus it's Brett Gardner. He's a Proven Veteran who grinds out at-bats and plays great defense. Playing him over a slumping Frazier is the safe move, especially against a guy like Shane Bieber.

The Yankees have been quick to pull Clint from the lineup whenever the opportunity has presented itself over the years and his current slump combined with Gardner's hot streak and Cleveland's righty heavy pitching staff is another opportunity. I don't think they'll pass it up. My guess at tonight's lineup:

1. 2B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Aaron Hicks
4. 1B Luke Voit
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. 3B Gio Urshela
7. SS Gleyber Torres
8. LF Brett Gardner
9. C Kyle Higashioka

I don't endorse playing Gardner over Frazier -- I'm a "play your most talented players" simpleton who wants Clint's bat speed in the lineup against Bieber's stuff -- but I think it'll happen. The Yankees want to break up their righties and Gardner has been better than Frazier lately. Gleyber batted seventh last Friday but I would be surprised if the Yankees dropped him down to eighth and moved Gardner up to seventh. We'll see. That is the lineup I expect. Hicks third and Gardner in left over Frazier.

6. Wild Card Series x-factor: Gleyber Torres. Torres is fortunate Gary Sanchez had such a crummy year because the Gary hysteria took all the attention away from his decidedly mediocre season. Gleyber hit .243/.356/.368 (106 wRC+) with three -- three! -- home runs in 42 games around his hamstring and quad injuries. A .368 SLG. Three. Sixty. Eight.

On top of that, the sloppy mistakes continued at shortstop. I think Torres has plenty of range, honestly, and the range component of UZR agrees. Gleyber's problem is he makes the routine play an adventure. He boots grounders and makes off-line throws far too often. Had Sanchez not been so bad, Torres would've been hearing it from fans (virtually).

To his credit, Torres continued to improve his plate discipline. He cut his chase rate from 31.1% in 2018 to 30.9% in 2019 all the way down to 21.2% in 2020. His 13.8% walk rate was nearly double last year's rate (7.9%). Small sample in a weird year, yeah, but this is a young player learning to master the strike zone. That's good. The bad was everything else this season. An underwhelming year, to be sure.

The postseason is a clean slate and Gleyber can be an impact hitter. We've seen him do it (in October too). His contact skills will be important against a high strikeout pitching staff. The Yankees aren't going anywhere without DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge doing damage atop the lineup but they can't win the series alone. Torres is, quite clearly, a player we can look at and say is capable of a lot more. The Yankees need it in October.

7. Bullpen lanes. Aaron Boone likes to talk about "lanes" for his relievers, meaning the spots in the lineup where they match up the best, and Cleveland's lineup presents some matchup headaches because they have four -- four! -- switch-hitters. They bat 1-2-3-4 too. This was their regular lineup coming down the stretch:

1. SS Francisco Lindor (SHB)
2. 2B Cesar Hernandez (SHB)
3. 3B Jose Ramirez (SHB)
4. 1B Carlos Santana (SHB)
5. DH Franmil Reyes (RHB)
6. RF Tyler Naquin (LHB) or RF Jordan Luplow (LHB)
7. LF Josh Naylor (LHB) or LF Oscar Mercado (RHB)
8. C Roberto Perez (RHB)
9. CF Delino DeShields (RHB)

There is no obvious Adam Ottavino lane. With the understanding that his .375 BABIP indicates he ran into some bad luck, Ottavino was not as dominant against righties this year, holding them to a .263/.311/.439 (.311 wOBA) batting line with 31.1% strikeouts. Last year it was a .177/.292/.266 (.255 wOBA) line with a 36.0% strikeout rate. Hmmm.

Ottavino was again terrible against lefties (5-for-17 with six walks and six strikeouts) and there is nowhere to use him against that lineup. Maybe against 7-8-9 and hold your breath when he faces Naylor (Naylor will either start or pinch-hit)? Reyes swings and misses a ton (28.6% strikeouts and 16.6% swing-and-miss rate), so he's a good matchup for Ottavino. The thing is, he'd have to face lefties either before or after Reyes, unless it's a "one out to end the inning" situation. Ottavino might be kinda useless this series otherwise.

Chad Green and Zack Britton are both very effective against righties and lefties, so there's no real need to match up with them. They can pitch whenever and their lanes will be the top of the lineup whenever possible, then Aroldis Chapman gets the ninth inning. The bottom of the lineup looks like Jonathan Loaisiga's lane to me. Here are the numbers against righty fastballs since Opening Day 2019 (MLB averages are .355 xwOBA and 20.5% whiffs):

• Roberto Perez: .348 xwOBA and 25.6% whiffs per swing
• Josh Naylor: .348 xwOBA and 17.9% whiffs per swing
• Tyler Naquin: .345 xwOBA and 24.2% whiffs per swing
• Delino DeShields Jr.: .323 xwOBA and 17.9% whiffs per swing
• Oscar Mercado: .313 xwOBA and 15.6% whiffs per swing
• Jordan Luplow: .309 xwOBA and 21.8% whiffs per swing

No huge swing and miss candidates but no one who does damage against righty fastballs either. Not even the lefties (Naylor and Naquin). Loaisiga has a much better fastball than Luis Cessa and Jonathan Holder -- Cessa's an extreme slider guy anyway -- and he's been really good in short bursts. Held hitters to a .212/.293/.346 line in his first 25 pitches.

Given Ottavino's platoon issues and Cessa's and Holder's consistent mediocrity (Cessa was actually pretty good this year, but you know what I mean), Loaisiga looks like the best bet to face the bottom of the order aside from Britton, Green, and Chapman. That sets up these bullpen lanes:

• Britton: Anywhere in the lineup, preferably the top.
• Chapman: Ninth inning (maybe a four or five-out save?).
• Green: Anywhere in the lineup, preferably the top.
• Loaisiga: 6-7-8-9.
• Ottavino: I guess 7-8-9?
• Cessa and Holder: Their lane is "the Yankees have a big lead."

Deivi Garcia started Saturday so, unless the Yankees are willing to use him in relief on short rest, he probably won't be a factor in Games 1-2. Even if he is available, he didn't have much success in relief in Triple-A last year and he didn't pitch in relief at all this year. Not really sure where Deivi fits in the Wild Card Series other than deep into extra innings or something like that, assuming J.A. Happ starts Game 3.

8. No Francona. Cleveland manager Terry Francona will miss the postseason, the team announced yesterday. Francona has been dealing with a gastrointestinal and blood clotting issues since Spring Training and he had a procedure last month. He hasn't managed since Aug. 16th. Francona will be around the team throughout October, but he won't be in the dugout.

"Tito is continuing his recovery but is not yet physically able to manage the team," president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told Mandy Bell over the weekend. “So again, I know I've said this multiple times, but we are incredibly grateful and thankful to have Sandy. He selflessly stepped into the role and has done an extraordinary job leading us this season, and we're looking forward to his leadership throughout the postseason."  

First base coach Sandy Alomar has served as acting manager these last few weeks. Alomar has been viewed as a future manager for years now -- it is all but certain he will take over for Francona when the time comes -- but he is a rookie manager. Francona is a battle-tested postseason skipper and master bullpen manipulator. Alomar's inexperience could be a factor this series.

How could his inexperience manifest? Well, look at Aaron Boone in 2018. He was slow to react at times, including letting ALDS Games 3 and 4 slip away because he hung with his starter too long. The three-batter minimum creates some bullpen matchup headaches and that's another way (though the Yankees make life easy with their mostly righty lineup).

I'm not sure whether Alomar managing rather than Francona will have a tangible effect on the Wild Card Series. For all we know Alomar could be a managerial prodigy who pulls all the right strings. We know Francona is that guy though. We've seen him do it for years. When given the choice, I'd rather face the rookie skipper over the grizzled vet. 

9. Rapid fire thoughts. ZiPS postseason odds have the Yankees at 52.8% to win the series with Yankees in three the most likely outcome (27.1%). It's essentially a coin flip. I think the Yankees are the more talented team, pretty clearly too, but the more talented team doesn't always come out on top in a best-of-three in this sport. The Dodgers have the best odds (80.5% vs. Brewers) and even they have a one-in-five chance of going home this week ... As noted earlier, Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake spent several years as Cleveland's pitcher development guru and he worked with many players on their staff, including Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, James Karinchak, and Zach Plesac. Aaron Boone said the Yankees will pick Blake's brain about those guys but eh, not sure how much it'll help. He's been away from Cleveland for a year now and game plans change quickly in this sport. It's worth asking, obviously, but I don't think Blake is some secret weapon that will tip the scale's in New York's favor ... James Paxton is with the Yankees in Cleveland and he has resumed throwing. He suffered a setback two weeks ago. It's good he's making progress but Boone said Paxton will be an option later in the postseason at best. Can't really count on him at this point, though at least he's resumed throwing. That's an important step given the nature of his injury and his impending free agency ... And finally, the Blue Jays opted to start Hyun-Jin Ryu in Game 2 of their series with the Rays. It'll be Matt Shoemaker in Game 1. I answered a mailbag question about starting Gerrit Cole in Game 2 last week and I don't like the idea. I know that game will be a chance to advance or a win or go home game, but I believe the most important game is the next game, and I'd rather go all-out to win Game 1 and put myself in position to have two chances to win one game to advance. Toronto sees it differently. They're saving Ryu for the swing game. I wish them luck against that plucky underdog No. 1 seed.