September 25th, 2020: Wild Card Series, Cole & Higashioka, Judge, Awards, German, Mailbag

Big news on this week's R2C2 podcast: CC Sabathia admitted his feud with Jackie Bradley Jr. was made up and partially inspired by Aaron Boone. Sabathia says he picked a guy on the other team to hate to fire himself up and Bradley became that guy on the Red Sox because he had a good at-bat against him as a rookie, and Boone raved about him while in the broadcast booth. It was nothing personal, just CC's way of motivating himself. So, mystery solved. Now let's get to the final batch of thoughts of the 2020 regular season (!).

1. White Sox in the Wild Card Series. There's been a shift in the balance of the power in the AL Central. The White Sox hit a lull (seven losses in their last nine games) and the Twins jumped over them and into first place. Right now, the Yankees are on pace to go to Chicago for the Wild Card Series next week, not Minnesota. Still three games remaining, so that could change, but Yankees vs. Twins once looked inevitable. That is no longer the case.

With the caveat that trying to predict a best-of-three series is a fool's errand, I think this is a good thing for the Yankees. The White Sox are very good, obviously. They can really hit and Lucas Giolito is as good as any pitcher in the game when he's on. I don't want to slight them. They'll be a handful. I just think the Yankees match up a little better with the White Sox, for a few reasons. (The Yankees' postseason history against the Twins means little to me.)

One, the Twins have a pitching staff designed to give the Yankees fits, either intentionally or coincidentally. When they made the Kenta Maeda trade, I said it felt like they did it specifically to beat the Yankees in October. They have a ton of righties with wipeout breaking balls and that is not what the righty heavy Yankees lineup needs to see. Maeda, Jose Berrios, and Michael Pineda will start Games 1-3 in that order next week -- manager Rocco Baldelli confirmed that -- and slider specialists Sergio Romo and Matt Wisler loom in the bullpen. Minnesota's pitching staff is a potential matchup nightmare for the Yankees.

Two, Chicago's lineup presents more strikeout opportunities. The White Sox (25.2%) and Twins (24.0%) have similar overall team strikeout rates, but, on an individual level, the ChiSox have a few more high strikeout hitters. There are 10 players on the two teams with at least a 25.0% strikeout rate this year (min. 100 plate appearances):

• Miguel Sano, Twins: 43.7%
• Jake Cave, Twins: 35.7%
• Luis Robert, White Sox: 33.0% 
• Nomar Mazara, White Sox: 30.7%
• Yoan Moncada, White Sox: 30.4%
• Yasmani Grandal, White Sox: 30.3%
• Edwin Encarnacion, White Sox: 29.8%
• James McCann, White Sox: 28.0%
• Nelson Cruz, Twins: 26.4%
• Byron Buxton, Twins: 26.9%

Cave won't start in the postseason. He's played as much as he has only because Buxton missed time with a shoulder injury. It's a little easier to escape jams when the other team has five guys in the lineup approaching a 30% strikeout rate (only two of Encarnacion, Grandal, and McCann are in the lineup each day). Also, the fact Chicago's lineup is so righty heavily bodes well for righty specialist Adam Ottavino. Minnesota's lineup is more balanced.

Three, the White Sox are horrible defensively, especially in the outfield. Eloy Jimenez and Nomar Mazara are dreadful in the corners -- one of my favorite subplots of the season is Chicago's players never letting Jimenez catch anything if at all possible -- and the Yankees hit a lot of fly balls and line drives, particularly pulled into the corners. That's good. Hit it at Eloy and Mazara. The Twins are a great defensive team, on the other hand.

And four, Chicago's bullpen is not imposing (though the recently called up Garrett Crochet adds a new wrinkle). I already noted Minnesota's bullpen has a pair of righty slider specialists in Romo and Wisler, and Baldelli is adept at leveraging them. White Sox manager Rick Renteria is pretty old school and his only righty slider guy is Codi Heuer, a rookie who will walk himself into trouble. Closer Alex Colome doesn't miss bats (17.2% strikeouts), so I'll take my chances with Renteria's bullpen over Baldelli and his bullpen.

Facing the White Sox should -- should -- make the Game 3 starter decision easy for the Yankees. It should be Deivi Garcia. Chicago's regular lineup has six righties (Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Nick Madrigal, Robert, and either Encarnacion or McCann) and two switch-hitters (Grandal and Moncada), and all except Madrigal have power (the White Sox lead the American League with 92 homers). The numbers:

• White Sox vs. RHP: .256/.316/.437 (107 wRC+) with 26.1 K% and 7.2 BB%
• White Sox vs. LHP: .284/.359/.531 (142 wRC+) with 21.9 K% and 9.4 BB%

Happ is a fly ball prone lefty who throws a ton of fastballs and can be predictable because of it, and sending him out there to face a lineup heavy on righty (or switch-hitting) power is asking for trouble. As good as he's been lately -- and he's been very good -- the White Sox are about as bad a matchup as it gets for Happ, at least on paper. 

Chicago's offense has the third highest chase rate (30.8%) and fourth lowest walk rate (7.7%) in baseball, which bodes well for a chase artist like Masahiro Tanaka. It also bodes well for Garcia and his two high spin breaking balls. I'll take my chances with the rookie over the Proven Veteran in Game 3. (Alternatively, the Yankees could just win the series in two.)

Again, trying to predict a best-of-three series is a waste of time, because unforeseen weird stuff will happen and turn the series. That's baseball. From the looks of things though, the Yankees match up a little better against the White Sox because their pitching staff lacks the power righties who give the Yankees fits, and their offense swings and misses and chases a lot. The Twins have those righty pitchers and don't expand the zone as often.

2. Cole's personal catcher. Aaron Boone has all but confirmed Kyle Higashioka will catch Gerrit Cole in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series next week and I don't have the energy for another personal catcher debate. We go through this every single season with some random pairing, whether it's Jose Molina and A.J. Burnett or Austin Romine and Sonny Gray or Higashioka and Cole.

"I don’t necessarily love (personal catchers), but that said, I don’t mind it," Boone told George King earlier this week. “If you have a guy who is the clear backup that is only playing once every four days, once every five days, and they get in a good rhythm with a pitcher -- obviously I have been doing it here with Higgy and Cole -- I think over the long haul maybe you try to avoid it a little, but if it is a natural matchup and things are rolling, I am not against it."

Cole had a 2.75 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 36 innings and a .237 OBP against in his first six starts and everything was great. Then he had three bad starts in a row -- literally his first three bad starts in over a calendar year -- and it was time to give him a new catcher, apparently, and now the Higashioka-Cole pairing is a thing. I think their success is, like, 99% Cole being awesome and 1% Higashioka being the Cole whisperer, but whatever.

“I do (think it should be Higashioka and Cole in the postseason) and I think it played out that way and is something that can easily be taken care of," Brian Cashman said in a recent YES Network interview (video link). "If it gives us our best chance of winning, that is something we should do. Hopefully it pays dividends for us ... It seems Higgy has a great rapport with Gerrit Cole. Doesn’t mean Gary didn’t, but the proof is in the pudding about how things have transpired while Higgy has been catching him."

If Gary Sanchez were having a real Gary Sanchez season, this would bother me more. He's not though, and while I don't think Higashioka is suddenly breaking out as an offensive force because he had a three-homer game, he is having some success at the plate. More than he's ever had at the MLB level, anyway. Offensively, you're trying to catch lightning in a bottle with either guy right now. I think Sanchez is more likely to reward you just because he is so talented (he still has these games). I also understand being frustrated with his season to date -- believe me, I understand -- and wanting to see someone else back there.

There will be no off-days in the best-of-five LDS and best-of-seven LCS this year, so, if the Yankees manage to advance, it's unlikely Sanchez would catch every game anyway. He's caught five consecutive days only twice since 2017 and he hasn't done it this year. At some point in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series, he'd sit, and the Higashioka-Cole pairing is an obvious time to sit him. I have serious personal catcher fatigue after these last few years but it's easier for me to swallow it this year because Gary has been so bad.

(During a radio interview yesterday Boone said the catching situation is "day-to-day" and I have nothing to say about that other than making lineup decisions on a day-to-day basis in this sport tells me you don't have faith in either guy. If the Yankees think they can win the World Series with their flavor of the week backups playing prominent roles in October, I wish them luck.)

3. Judge's missing power. In seven games since returning from the injured list, Aaron Judge is 5-for-27 (.185) with 10 strikeouts, and three of the five hits came in one game. All five hits are singles and, since returning, the spray chart shows Judge has hit exactly one ball that looked like it had a chance to leave the ballpark off the bat (this one):

I'm not worried at all. It's 30 plate appearances following what was essentially a five-week absence -- Judge returned and got three at-bats before having to go right back on the injured list -- and he didn't get to play rehab games. He took a handful of simulated game at-bats in Scranton and that was it. Of course he's still searching for his timing. The postseason is right around the corner, so he has to find it soon, but I expect he will.

"Over time I think that is always boiling under the surface. As he gets really locked in then you will see him elevate some balls," Aaron Boone told George King earlier this week. "To see him moving well, I think that is best thing right now, to see him bounce back and do all the things he needs to do to be Aaron Judge. I am confident he is going to get there, the guy we know in the box."

Anyway, one thing I have noticed since Judge returned is teams are attacking him with fastballs down and in and off the plate more often. The Red Sox really pounded him down there this past weekend, and the Blue Jays have since followed suit, at least when a righty was on the mound. Pitches like this (video link):

Credit where it's due: that's a pretty nasty pitch. That would be difficult to hit as a normal-sized person. Judge is a giant, and while he's quite good at keeping his hands tight to his body and getting to inside pitches, even he has his limits. There's nothing he could do with that pitch other than maybe hook it foul or break his bat (or take it).

Teams typically attack Judge north and south with fastballs -- elevated above the zone for swings and misses or down below the knees, far too often for called strikes -- or breaking balls away. Crowding him down and in with fastballs is relatively new. Here are his 2018 and 2019 fastball location heat maps (righty pitchers only) (full size image):

Pretty similar! Righties threw most fastballs up and away to Judge in 2018 and 2019. He is certainly strong enough to reach out and drive an up and away fastball to right field, which often equals damage at Yankee Stadium, but I can understand not wanting him to challenge him over the plate, or inside so he can better pull the ball to left.

Now here are two more fastball location heat maps. The first is earlier this year, before Judge landed on the injured list, and the second is since he returned from the injured list (those three at-bats in Atlanta before he went back on the injured list are included in the pre-injured list plot) (full size image):

Hmmm. We're dealing with very small sample sizes here, but the down and in fastball thing did start earlier this season. It's not brand new, as in since Judge has come back from the injury. He was seeing more down and in heaters even before he got hurt. It's a new plan of attack. This is Judge's fourth full season and he's always been excellent when healthy. Of course opposing teams are going to try new things to get him out.

Right-handed hitters are hitting .251 with a .394 SLG against down and in fastballs from righty pitchers this year. For his career, Judge is hitting .294 with a .500 SLG against those pitches. Better than the league average but well below the .309 AVG and .651 SLG he puts up against all other fastballs. If you're a righty pitcher and you're going to throw Judge a fastball, down and in is a good place to throw it.

Baseball is all about adjustments and pitchers have seemingly adjusted to Judge this year by crowding him down and in with heaters. Now it's up to him to adjust back, which could simply mean taking those pitches for balls (when possible). Sounds easy but it's not. Judge is a really smart hitter and he tends to make adjustments quick. Based on what we've seen these last few weeks, adjusting to these down and in fastballs is his next challenge.

4. Awards races. The season is nearly over and the various awards ballots must be submitted sometime between the end of the regular season Sunday and the start of the Wild Card Series on Tuesday. I don't have an awards vote this year and I've never had a vote, and I don't expect to get one anytime soon. The New York chapter of the BBWAA is huge and awards votes deservedly go to the beat reporters who are at the park everyday.

Anyway, with the regular season winding down, this is as good a time as any to check in on the various awards races and where the Yankees could fit, if they fit at all. Let's get to it.

Comeback Player of the Year

The Yankees have a legitimate Comeback Player of the Year candidate and it isn't Giancarlo Stanton, who missed most of last year with injuries. He missed too much time this year with the hamstring strain to get consideration. It also isn't Jordan Montgomery in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, mostly because he hasn't pitched well enough to earn Comeback Player of the Year consideration.

No, their Comeback Player of the Year candidate is J.A. Happ. Go figure. Last season Happ had a 4.91 ERA (5.22 FIP) in 161.1 innings. This year he's sitting on a 3.25 ERA (4.36 FIP) in 44.1 innings thanks to his recent hot streak. Unless I'm missing someone obvious, and I don't think I am, there is no clear-cut Comeback Player of the Year candidate in the American League this season. No 2015 Matt Harvey or 2013 Mariano Rivera type. These guys are probably Happ's biggest competition:

• Dylan Bundy, Angels: 3.29 ERA (2.94 FIP) in 65.2 innings (+1.6 WAR)
• Andrew Heaney, Angels: 4.02 ERA (3.20 FIP) in 62.2 innings (+1.3 WAR)
• Salvador Perez, Royals: .360/.375/.683 (182 wRC+) in 144 plate appearances (+2.2 WAR)

Bundy deserves an "Escaped the Orioles" award more than a Comeback Player of the Year award -- don't you have to have been good previously to win this award? isn't Bundy just a guy having a breakout year? -- and Heaney had a 4.91 ERA (4.63 FIP) in only 95.1 innings around injury last year. Two years ago he threw 180 innings with a 4.15 ERA (3.99 FIP), so I guess that's his established baseline for a comeback year.

I think Perez is the Comeback Player of the Year favorite right now. He missed last year with Tommy John surgery and is putting up that line in 34 games around an eye issue this year (he also missed Summer Camp with COVID-19). Losing a month to the eye problem could cost him, but there is precedent for the Comeback Player of the Year award going to a guy who played a partial season (Carlos Carrasco won it with 80 innings last year, for example).

Perez is having a great season, he's a popular player and a brand name, and he's coming back from major injury. This isn't a "squint your eyes and you can say he had a bad year last year" situation like, say, Jose Ramirez (who will probably win now that I think about it). Perez missed all last season, and now he's back and being awesome. That's Comeback Player of the Year material. Happ has a chance, but I think there are better candidates out there.

Manager of the Year

Nope. Manager of the Year typically goes to the manager of the team that most exceeded expectations or the manager of the team that was so outrageously good he can't be ignored. The Yankees are neither of those things. Aaron Boone finished second in the voting last year and fifth in the voting the year before. The Manager of the Year ballot runs three names deep and I don't expect Boone to get a single vote. Not even a lonely third place vote. The Yankees haven't had the kinda year that gets the manager Manager of the Year votes. My guess is White Sox manager Rick Renteria wins.

Rookie of the Year

For a while there it looked like Deivi Garcia might sneak up and factor into the Rookie of the Year race. The late call-up meant he was always going to be a long shot, but getting smacked around at Fenway Park last weekend pretty much closed the door on that. A 4.88 ERA (4.77 FIP) in 27.2 innings, even in this short and unusual season, isn't Rookie of the Year worthy, and tomorrow's start won't be enough to get back into the race.

Clint Frazier exceeded the rookie limits way back in 2017, so he's not eligible even though this is the first time he's a full-time big leaguer. Mike King (7.76 ERA in 26.2 innings) and Nick Nelson (5.09 ERA in 17.2 innings) aren't getting Rookie of the Year votes, and that's really it for Yankees rookies. Clarke Schmidt, Estevan Florial, and others didn't spend nearly enough time on the roster to earn consideration. Deivi was the best chance. Luis Robert's recent slump means this is Kyle Lewis' award to lose.

Cy Young Award

It's a race for second place. Shane Bieber has been so ridiculously good -- he leads the American League in ERA (1.63), FIP (2.06), strikeouts (122), fWAR (+3.2), and bWAR (+3.3) -- that he should win the Cy Young unanimously. Clayton Kershaw was the last unanimous Cy Young winner in 2014. The last unanimous winner in the American League was Justin Verlander in 2011. If he's not unanimous, Bieber should win handily.

Gerrit Cole's early season home run problems and ugly three-start stretch at midseason means he won't challenge Bieber and is instead fighting Bundy, Lucas Giolito, Marco Gonzales, Lance Lynn, Kenta Maeda, and Hyun-Jin Ryu for second, third, fourth, and fifth place votes. Here are Cole's ranks among American League hurlers (rate stats among 21 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title):

• Innings: 73 (3rd in AL)
• ERA: 2.84 (5th)
• FIP: 3.88 (15th)
• WHIP: 0.96 (4th)
• Strikeouts: 94 (3rd)
• Strikeout rate: 32.6% (4th)
• K/BB ratio: 5.53 (5th)
• fWAR: +1.5 (11th)
• bWAR: +2.1 (3rd)

Cole has been a top five pitcher in the American League and he'll get plenty of Cy Young votes. He won't win, but he could finish as high as second, and I think a top five finish is a lock at this point. The last Yankee to finish in the top five of the Cy Young voting was Luis Severino in 2017. He finished third behind Corey Kluber and Chris Sale.

No other Yankees will get Cy Young votes this year. Happ is a good 30 innings behind the league leaders and Masahiro Tanaka's rough start earlier this week likely removed him from down ballot consideration. Even before that he was going to have a tough time garnering a vote. No Yankees reliever is having the kind of season that generates Cy Young buzz.

Most Valuable Player

AL MVP is a six-man race at this point and it's more wide open than recent years because Mike Trout hasn't had a full season to pull away from the pack. Because the season is so short, the vote should be more nuanced. WAR is inexact to start with and the small 60-game sample makes it even less reliable. Voters will have to look a little deeper.

The Yankees have two legitimate MVP candidates in DJ LeMahieu and Luke Voit. They are two players in the six-man race along with Ramirez, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, and Nelson Cruz. There is an anti-pitcher bias in the MVP voting, so while Bieber certainly deserves consideration, I don't think he'll be a serious contender. Trout will surely get votes even though the Angels are terrible. Enough to win? Probably not.

Here's a quick look at the six-man race:

Is LeMahieu or Voit the Yankees' MVP? There's a good case for both. Voit leads the league in homers and has been the only consistent presence in the lineup all season. LeMahieu leads the league in AVG, is second in OBP, and tied for the lead in bWAR, plus he provides much more in the field and on the bases. He also missed nine games while on the injured list. That's 15% of the season! Voit, meanwhile, has been playing through "foot stuff" for weeks now.

Looking at some context dependent stats, LeMahieu has the edge in win probability added (+1.29 vs. +0.78), though he's been worse with runners in scoring position (205 wRC+ vs. 117 wRC+). Both have kinda stunk in limited high-leverage plate appearances (94 wRC+ vs. 88 wRC+). They also have huge home/road splits with LeMahieu's (225 wRC+ vs. 98 wRC+) ever so slightly smaller than Voit's (226 wRC+ vs. 90 wRC+).

There's no wrong answer here. I'd go with Voit as Yankees' MVP because he really carried the offense for long stretches of time. LeMahieu has been a tad a more consistent -- Voit has had a few four or five-game slumps -- and he only has 19 fewer plate appearances than Voit, so the injured list stint didn't put him too far behind in playing time. LeMahieu is the better all-around player, I think. I mean, clearly. But Voit has been more impactful.

Where do they slot in among the other four MVP candidates? Behind all of them, I think. Abreu has been better than Voit and he's the veteran leader on a young upstart team that might win the division, so he has that narrative going for him. As far as first base mashers go, Abreu will get the votes ahead of Voit. Cruz as well, because he's had a better year and is the leader on a team in position to win the division.

Anderson vs. LeMahieu is a toss up. It really is. They're both great all-around players who hit leadoff and drive their team's offense, and their numbers are similar. You have to dig in and really nitpick their games to think one is clearly ahead of the other. Voters may very well put Anderson higher on their ballot because the White Sox are the out of nowhere success story and LeMahieu is on the boring old Yankees.

Ultimately, I think this is Ramirez's award to lose. He has been by far the best hitter on his team -- even my guy Francisco Lindor is having a mediocre year (.265/.336/.429 and 104 wRC+) -- and he's been at his best down the stretch, going 37-for-106 (.349) with 12 home runs in his last 28 games to help Cleveland clinch a postseason spot (a postseason spot he clinched with a walk-off homer). The MVP narrative is strong with this one.

My guess is Ramirez wins, Abreu finishes second, and then Anderson, Cruz, LeMahieu, and Voit finish third through sixth in some order. No order would surprise me and, honestly, I'd have a hard time arguing against any order. It's a close race in the short season, and I think the fact the Yankees had a disappointing regular season will work against LeMahieu and Voit come MVP voting time. They could both finish in the top five, which could be incredible, but I don't think either is winning. (Gerrit Cole might get some down-ballot votes too.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Domingo German won't pitch this season. Aaron Boone confirmed it. "(He) hasn’t been able to throw with us. To be able to ramp him up and put him in this kind of situation I don’t think is really fair to anyone. We look forward to Domingo being a really significant part of the team again heading into next year," Boone told George King earlier this week. Makes sense. German has not pitched in a real game in over a year now. Hard to think he could be a reliable postseason option at this point ... According to Jeff Passan, it is "highly likely" the 2021 draft order will be set in reverse order of the 2020 standings, not the combined 2019-20 standings (or some other criteria). The March agreement allows commissioner Rob Manfred to modify the draft order if fewer than 81 regular season games are played, though apparently that was only going to happen if the season had to be shut down early because of a large scale COVID-19 outbreak. The Pirates have not yet clinched the No. 1 overall pick but should soon. The Yankees currently hold the No. 21 pick and could finish anywhere in the No. 17-28 range. In all likelihood, it will be their highest pick since taking Clarke Schmidt with the No. 16 selection in 2017 ... And finally, according to Evan Drellich (subs. req'd), Yankees president Randy Levine is planning to personally argue the team's case as they appeal the release of a letter detailing MLB's investigation into the Red Sox's Apple Watch scandal in 2017. The letter is part of a lawsuit brought against MLB by fantasy sports players (they claim they were defrauded by Boston's and Houston's sign-stealing scandals) and a judge ordered it unsealed a few weeks ago. When the Apple Watch punishment was announced, the Yankees were fined for improper use of a dugout phone in previous years. The Yankees are not a party in the lawsuit and they argue the letter should stay sealed because it would damage their reputation, which makes it sound like they have something to hide, but is a valid legal argument. Anyway, Levine is a trained attorney who worked in the Justice Department once upon a time, and because he no longer appears in courtrooms regularly and doesn't have to maintain a good working relationship with anyone involved, he could get really aggressive with his argument. I have no idea if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but it's definitely a thing. Anyway, it's unusual for a team executive to argue such cases -- usually it is left to outside counsel -- and Drellich says hearings could begin in December, but are likely to be pushed back to 2021. This isn't going away anytime soon.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Chris asks (short version): Should Gerrit Cole start Game 2 of the Wild Card Series because that game will either be a chance to advance or a must-win to stay alive?

Chris also noted that, before the Yankees pushed Cole's start back this week to line him up for Game 1, they could have started him on short rest today, then on normal rest for Game 2. That way they could have seen how he responded to pitching on short rest before asking him to do it in October. Cole has never make a start on short rest in his career.

Game 2 is the swing game and it would make sense to save your best pitcher for that game. At the same time, saving your best pitcher for Game 2 makes it more likely -- even if only by a very small amount -- that game is win or go home rather than a chance to advance. I'd rather go all out to win Game 1, then give myself two chances to win one game to advance. I trust Masahiro Tanaka implicitly and would have no trouble giving him the ball in a win or go home situation in Game 2.

As for potentially starting Cole on short rest -- he could start Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, then Game 1 of the ALDS on normal rest, then a potential Game 5 on short rest -- the Yankees haven't given any indication they are willing to do that. It should be on the table, but asking Cole to make a regular season start on short rest, then a postseason start on normal rest is asking a lot. I'd rather not tinker with his routine. If you're going to test out the short rest thing, do it in July or August, not the end of September.

Paul asks: Do postseason starts/innings count towards J.A. Happ's vesting option? Can the option be picked up even if he doesn't meet the criteria, like when the Yankees paid CC his bonus even though his missed by 2 innings?

Postseason innings do not count. Bonuses and incentives can only be tied to postseason awards (World Series MVP, etc.), not postseason playing time. Happ will fall short of the 10 starts and 61.1 innings needed to vest his option. I thought it was a club option that could vest, but that's not the case. It's a straight vesting option. If it doesn't vest, Happ will become a free agent. The Yankees don't have an option to exercise.

Of course, the Yankees wouldn't pick up the club option anyway. There is zero chance they want Happ back at $17M -- $17M! -- next year. They might take him back at a lesser salary, but after the shutdown, there's no way Happ gets $17M in free agency, not even after these last five starts. Re-signing DJ LeMahieu will be a priority this winter and re-signing Masahiro Tanaka can't be too far behind. Committing $17M to Happ before even seeing what the market looks like -- a hypothetical club option would've had to have been picked up before free agency opened -- would be a terrible idea.

Brian asks: Do you think the new playoff format will force the Yankees to reconsider the back end of the bullpen? Typically in a playoff series the back-end guys only get mop up duty, but now conceivably they’ll have to be used in a close game. Wouldn’t you rather Clarke over King/Nelson?

Took me a minute to understand the question. I often use "back-end guys" to refer to the late-inning relievers because they pitch at the back end of the game. He's referring to the guys at the back of the bullpen, the Nick Nelsons and Mike Kings and Luis Cessas. Using Zack Britton and Chad Green in mop-up duty would be A Decision.

Anyway, yeah, teams are going to have to use their bullpen differently, but the Yankees are not going to ask Cessa or Jonathan Loaisiga to get big outs unless absolutely necessary. They will do everything they can to win each game and live the fallout tomorrow. If that means they have to use Britton, Green, Adam Ottavino, and Aroldis Chapman to win today and won't have any of them tomorrow, so be it. Get the win that's right there in front of you.

The lack of off-days in the LDS and LCS means teams will likely push their starters a little more when possible. Three-run lead in the sixth with your starter at 98 pitches? You might send him back out to save the bullpen a bit in that case. With a one-run lead though, it's probably best to go with a fresh reliever. Having a true horse like Gerrit Cole, who can turn a lineup over three times (and even get after it a fourth time), is such an advantage. He's almost like his own setup man at times.

"If we go on a deep run in the playoffs, guys are going to have to pitch multiple days,” Aaron Boone told George King earlier this week. “... (My) vision of it is that you are going to have to lean on 10, 12, 13 pitchers more so than ever before. You are not going to be riding two starters twice a series and four main, high impact relievers. You are going to have to, in given games, lean on the 12th, 13th man on a pitching staff to get important outs for you. I think that will be imperative for the team that wins it all.” 

I would prefer Clarke Schmidt over Nick Nelson and especially Mike King -- King really has to come up with a reliable secondary pitch, throwing 60% sinking two-seamers is no way to go through life in the year 2020, it's too hittable -- but the Yankees don't seem to be in a rush to try him. If Schmidt were a serious postseason bullpen candidate, he'd have been up and pitching out of the bullpen at some point. It hasn't happened, so I don't think we'll see in him anything other than emergency.

(Joel Sherman reports Schmidt will start Sunday's game and says it is an audition for a postseason role. One start is not an "audition," folks. It's one start. Not enough information to decide anything. The time for an audition has come and gone.)

Eric asks: Hi - how do you think the Yanks will react to the new Mets ownership?  Will they spend to match the Mets under Steve Cohen?

The Mets sale to Steve Cohen will be finalized at some point in October or November, after the owners vote. Cohen is reportedly worth $14+ billion and will instantly become the wealthiest MLB owner by a mile -- the Lerners (Nationals) are worth approximately $5 billion and are the current wealthiest owners -- and he's a lifelong Mets fan, and the expectation is he will spend big to push the team into contention.

We don't know whether that will actually happen, of course. Cohen could run the Mets with the same slavish devotion to efficiency that has become a black mark on the Astros. We're going to have to wait and see. As for the Yankees, they're not going to react to the Mets. That's not how they operate. They didn't react when the Mets went to the World Series a few years ago and they're not going to let some other team dictate their process. Maybe George Steinbrenner would've reacted a certain way. Under Hal Steinbrenner, I suspect it will be business as usual, no matter what the Mets do under Cohen.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)