September 22nd, 2020: Happ, Homefield Advantage, Gardner, Hicks, Chapman, Dominguez

UPDATE: Made a bad copy and paste error that accidentally chopped out a chunk of today's post without realizing it before I published. My bad. It's fixed now.

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The Yankees have clinched a postseason spot and maybe it's just me, but it doesn't resonate the same way this year. It's a weird and short season, and there are SO MANY postseason spots. Clinching one felt like an inevitability most of the year. It is the first step toward winning the World Series though, and let's not lose sight of that. Here are today's thoughts as I begin thinking about the Yankees signing 39-year-old Justin Verlander to a one-year prove yourself contract in 2022.

1. Happ's resurgence. The Game 3 starter discussion has become complicated in a good way. J.A. Happ is in the middle of his best stretch as a Yankee, pitching to a 1.99 ERA (2.61 FIP) in five starts while making a regular turn (i.e. not having his start skipped). He struck out nine in eight shutout innings against the Red Sox over the weekend, and while Boston checked out for the season a month ago, they did give Jordan Montgomery and Deivi Garcia problems, so we shouldn't chalk Happ's performance up to poor competition.

“I had some life on the fastball, and the changeup has come around for me. Lately, it’s been a big pitch," Happ told Bryan Hoch following the game. “We played good defense, good positioning, and were able to get some early outs, which helped me go deeper in the ballgame.”

Happ has not changed his pitch mix during his five-start stretch -- he says his changeup has "come around for me," but there has been no uptick in usage -- and he's not throwing any harder. To me, it's all about location, particularly against righties. Happ has done a much better job jamming righties up and in with his fastball, then throwing that changeup and his two-seamer down and away for whiffs and weak contact.

Here are his pitch locations against the Red Sox's righty hitters Saturday night:

Happ lived on the edges rather than over the plate, and when he missed his spot, he missed out of the zone rather than middle-middle. Getting ahead in the count helps too. In the last five starts, Happ has thrown a first pitch strike to 66.9% of batters and gone to a two-strike count on 66.8% of batters. Last year those numbers were 58.7% and 51.6%, respectively.

We know Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka will start Games 1 and 2 of the Wild Card Series. It only makes sense and the Yankees have all but confirmed it. Game 3 remains up in the air. Happ and Garcia each have one start regular season start remaining -- Montgomery does as well but he's pitched himself out of the Game 3 mix -- but that last start shouldn't decide the Game 3 starter. If you're changing your mind on a start-by-start basis, I take that as an sign you don't have faith in either option.

Matchups will be a factor. The Yankees are likely to play the Twins in the Wild Card Series and Minnesota has been much better against righties (.252/.349/.472) than lefties (.228/.313/.417) this year. Then again, that veteran lineup of theirs has seen Happ plenty, and they've never had a look at Garcia, so the element of surprise would be on his side. "He's on a hot streak" isn't a good basis for a decision either, because hot streaks tell the past, not predict the future. They can end at a moment's notice.

The best option for Game 3 is winning the best-of-three series in two games. If there is a Game 3, the starter will be on a short leash no matter what. It's a win or go home game and you can't give your starter time to work through it should he labor in the early innings. Deivi pitched out of the bullpen in Triple-A last year and struggled. Happ has pitched in relief at various points throughout his career, including last postseason. Maybe that means it's best to start Garcia with Happ backing him up?

Three and a half weeks ago the Yankees had no good options to start Game 3. Garcia had not yet debuted and Happ was still getting hit around, and the Yankees didn't make a trade at the deadline. Now they appear to have two good options. Because it's a win or go home situation, the Game 3 starter decision is ultra-important and, if the Yankees lose, it will be second guessed all winter no matter who they pick. That's just the way it is.

Happ is the safe choice. He's the been there, done that veteran guy who's pitched very well of late. Garcia is the bold pick because he's young and inexperienced, but he's also shown he's capable of dominance. My preference is Garcia because I feel he has more weapons and the element of surprise will help him. I'm also more comfortable giving Happ that Game 3 start now than I was at pretty much any other point in his Yankees tenure. Whoever it ends up being, the leash will be short. The game is far too important.

“He’s obviously going to be on the team (in the postseason) and playing a big role," Boone told Hoch. "This season he showed me a level of mental toughness and professionalism that has been really admirable. He’s been one of the anchors in the rotation."

2. The importance of homefield advantage. The Yankees have clinched a postseason spot and the only thing still on the line is homefield advantage in the Wild Card Series. They are still mathematically alive in the AL East -- the Yankees are 4.5 games back with six to play, but it's effectively a 5.5-game deficit because the Rays hold the tiebreaker -- but forget it. The Yankees blew their chance at the division when they went 2-8 against Tampa.

The entire best-of-three Wild Card Series will be played at the higher seed's ballpark before the postseason moves into the bubbles. There will be no fans in the stands during the Wild Card Series, so the Yankee Stadium intimidation factor will be absent, but playing those games in your building still offers a very real and very distinct advantage.

“We certainly want to play at home. We feel we have a homefield advantage," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin over the weekend. "Obviously, it’s a little bit different because of the crowd, but in a lot of ways, teams are built for their home ballpark."

The Yankees are indeed built for their home ballpark. Perhaps moreso than any other team in baseball. Here are the home/road numbers:

2020 at Yankee Stadium: .276/.366/.558 (150 wRC+) and 3.87 ERA (4.26 FIP)
2020 everywhere else: .217/.316/.356 (87 wRC+) and 4.30 ERA (4.45 FIP)

2019-20 at Yankee Stadium: .267/.343/.496 (122 wRC+) and 3.68 ERA (4.17 FIP)
2019-20 everywhere else: .259/.336/.471 (113 wRC+) 4.91 ERA (4.76 FIP)

Small sample this year, obviously, but even going back to last season (with largely the same roster) the Yankees have been better at Yankee Stadium than on the road. They hit better in the Bronx and they pitch better too, which you maybe wouldn't expect given the ballpark. In fact, since Opening Day 2019, the Yankees have allowed fewer home runs at home (152) than the Astros (157) despite Houston's insane pitching staff last year.

The Yankees are very likely to face the Twins in the Wild Card Series and Minnesota has been slightly better on the road than at home both this year and since last year, but the split is very small. The numbers:

2020 at Target Field: .240/.316/.433 (100 wRC+) and 2.64 ERA (3.30 FIP)
2020 everywhere else: .244/.316/.436 (102 wRC+) and 3.51 ERA (3.78 FIP)

2019-20 at Target Field: .258/.332/.469 (109 wRC+) and 3.94 ERA (3.74 FIP)
2019-20 everywhere else: .268/.333/.487 (116 wRC+) and 4.10 ERA (3.20 FIP)

Minnesota's home/road splits are less relevant to me than the Yankees' home/road splits. Worry about your own team (an easy thing to say when your opponent's splits are smaller than yours). The Yankees are far more dangerous in the Bronx and there are all the comforts of home that can't be ignored. I want them to have those comforts in the Wild Card Series.

"It’s home," Boone told Martin. "It’s our clubhouse, our facility, video and cage and weight room. We know the set up and where to go eat and the protocols. It’s certainly something that provides little comforts of home. Whatever advantage there is to that, how do you really know? There is some comfort level in that."

Because the Yankees and Twins have such similar records -- the Yankees are 31-23 and the Twins are 33-22 -- the tiebreaker is important. MLB will not play any tiebreaker games this season. Not even if two teams are fighting for one postseason spot. All ties will be resolved mathematically. Here are the tiebreakers:

1. Head-to-head record.
2. Intradivision record.
3. Last 20 division games (plus one until the tie is broken).

The Yankees and Twins did not play this season -- that's a fun postseason wrinkle, huh? so many matchups will feature teams that did not face each other at all this year -- so the first tiebreaker is not applicable. The indispensable James Smyth did the math on the second and third tiebreaker scenarios:

That does not include last night's game, so ignore the "Yankees go 7-0" scenario. It is no longer possible (the Twins were off yesterday). I feel like the Yankees will need to go 5-1 or better the rest of the way to secure homefield advantage. Getting it with a worse record will require the Twins falling on their face a little bit.

Ultimately, we're talking about a best-of-three series, and they are impossible to predict. Teams lose two of three at home all the time. The Yankees have won every postseason game in Target Field history -- I don't just mean every Yankees vs. Twins postseason game, I mean literally every postseason game ever played in the ballpark -- so winning there is doable. I'd just rather they play and win those games in the Bronx. The Yankees are much more formidable at home.

"We certainly feel like wherever we end up, whether it’s Yankee Stadium or on the road, we’ll take our chances," Boone told Martin.

3. Gardner in 2021. Not surprisingly, Brett Gardner recently said he wants to keep playing beyond this season. Maybe the Yankees will win the World Series and he'll decide to ride off into the sunset as a champion, but I wouldn't count on it. Gardner wants to keep playing.

“I would love to play," Gardner told Bryan Hoch. "This season hasn't gone how I wanted from a numbers standpoint, but recently I have felt much better. I definitely don't want my last games played to be in front of no fans. I would love for my family to have the chance to see me play again. I feel great, and I feel like I can still do it. We'll just see what happens in a few months. Right now I’m just focused on this team and trying to go into the playoffs strong, and hopefully win the World Series."

Gardner has quietly gone 9-for-24 (.375) with two homers, eight walks, and five strikeouts in his last nine games to raise his season batting line to a respectable .207/.345/.388 (106 wRC+). I don't believe his defense has slipped based on the eye test, though going 3-for-6 in stolen base attempts and taking the extra base only 25% of the time -- Gardner has been well north of the league average 40% extra-base taken rate throughout his career -- would indicate his legs are slipping. Then again, he's had only 12 opportunities to take the extra base (first-to-third on a single, etc.), so who knows.

The outfield should be Clint Frazier in left, Aaron Judge in right, and Aaron Hicks in center next season. The fourth outfielder will need to be able to play center field, and preferably he would hit left-handed just to provide a little balance. Gardner can do that. In theory, so can Mike Tauchman, who is younger and cheaper, but he's been terrible this season, so much so that he isn't (or shouldn't be) assured a spot on the 2021 Yankees. Tauchman turns 30 in December. He's not a kid and the track record is short.

I'm not opposed to bringing Gardner back even though he turned 37 last month. He is still productive against righties -- Gardner is hitting .221/.369/.433 (124 wRC+) against northpaws this year -- and he contributes on the field, and he's an A+ clubhouse guy. As far as fourth outfielders go, that's everything you want right there. Good defense, at least be competent as a platoon bat, and don't be a jerk. There's a clear fit on the 2021 roster.

Gardner's contract includes a $10M club option with a $2.5M buyout, so it's effectively a $7.5M decision, but it's hard to see that being picked up. Not after the shutdown. Two years ago, when Gardner was coming off his worst full season, the Yankees declined their $12.5M option and paid him a $2M buyout, then re-signed him to a new one-year deal worth $7.5M. They could do something similar now. Decline the option then agree to a new contract.

Here are some veteran outfielders who signed one-year contracts this past offseason:

• Kevin Pillar: $4.25M
• Alex Gordon: $4M
• Nick Markakis: $4M
• Hunter Pence: $3M

Those are pre-shutdown dollars but yeah, Gardner fits nicely with that group. Declining the $10M option then giving him a new one-year contract worth $3M to $4M is perfectly reasonable. Gardner would get the $2.5M buyout on top of that, so the total compensation would be $5.5M to $6.5M. I can't imagine the market will be kind to a 37-year-old who's skills may be beginning to slip. Maybe $4M would be generous. Maybe $2M works?

The unknown here is Gardner priorities. Does he want to play everyday? Be on a team with a chance to win a World Series? Be as close as possible to his home in South Carolina? Max out his earnings? Dunno. My guess is he wants to remain with the Yankees and will take less to do so, but who knows. Gardner would fit on the 2021 bench. The real question is whether the Yankees would rather rely on Tauchman to fill the role, and save some money.

4. Hicksie's walks and strikeouts. It feels like Aaron Hicks is having a poor season, which isn't surprising when the guy is hitting .218 with a .395 SLG. At the same time, Hicks is running a .382 OBP, third highest among Yankees with at least 100 plate appearances, so he's sitting on a very solid 121 wRC+. That is 25th among the 58 outfielders with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Not too bad.

I noted this last month, but Hicks has been hitting the ball on the ground a ton this season, especially as a left-handed batter. He's always been a pull hitter as a lefty but he's been unable to elevate the ball and has really worn out the infielders this year. The ground ball rate has started to come down a bit lately ...

... but it's still too high overall. I'm hopeful that Hicks will get back to his 2017-19 self next year, as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery. Didi Gregorius and Corey Seager give me that hope. Gregorius hit .238/.276/.441 (83 wRC+) following Tommy John surgery last year and is up to .288/.346/.492 (119 wRC+) this year. Seager was at .272/.335/.483 (113 wRC+) last year, after his elbow reconstruction, and he's at .311/.362/.589 (154 wRC+) this year. A post-Tommy John surgery lull season seems to be the norm.

Anyway, Hicks has a chance to do something this year that no Yankee has done in more than a decade, and that's what I want to write about. He currently has 38 walks and 33 strikeouts in 186 plate appearances with six games remaining. Here are the last five Yankees to finish a season with more walks than strikeouts in least 200 plate appearances:

• 2006 Jason Giambi: 110 BB and 106 K (579 PA)
• 2006 Hideki Matsui: 27 BB and 23 K (201 PA because he broke his wrist)
• 2005 Gary Sheffield: 78 BB and 76 K (675 PA)
• 2004 Gary Sheffield: 92 BB and 83 K (684 PA)
• 2004 Kenny Lofton: 31 BB and 27 K (313 PA as a part-time player)

Matsui had 73 walks and 73 strikeouts in 634 plate appearances in 2007. Aside from Matsui in 2007, the closest a Yankee has come to walking more than he's struck out since Giambi is Yangervis Solarte, who had 30 walks and 34 strikeouts in 289 plate appearances in 2014. Derek Jeter (90/72 K/BB), Alex Rodriguez (97/80 K/BB), and Matsui (75/64 K/BB) all had at least 80% as many walks as strikeouts in 2009. No one else has done it since Giambi.

Bernie Williams walked more than he struck out several times and Chuck Knoblauch did it every year from 1998-2000. Wade Boggs did it every year of his career, so of course he did it during his five years in pinstripes, and Don Mattingly did it regularly as well. We're starting to go real far back though and baseball was much different when Boggs and Mattingly (and Bernie and Knoblauch) played than it is now. Strikeouts are far more prevalent this days.

Hicks is one of seven hitters with more walks than strikeouts and enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title this year (two others have the same number of walks as strikeouts). It's a short season, obviously, but last year only two players batted at least 200 times and walked more than they struck out: Luis Arraez (29/36 K/BB) and Alex Bregman (83/119 K/BB). That's it. Former Yankee Kendrys Morales (26/26 K/BB) and Carlos Santana (108/108 K/BB) had as many walks as strikeouts, but not more.

I'm not really going anywhere with this. I just think it's pretty cool Hicks has a chance to finish the season with more walks than strikeouts. It's been a while since a Yankee has done it, even in as few plate appearances as Hicks will have this year. All those walks have allowed Hicks to be a positive contributor too, because the batting average and power aren't there has he pulls everything into the shift with his new elbow ligament.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Russ Davis. This week's random Yankee comes by request and was part of a notable trade that helped usher in the late-1990s dynasty. Here's the random Yankee archive. You can find links back to everyone we've covered there.

Davis was a significant player development success story back in the day. The Yankees selected him out of an Alabama junior college in the 29th round of the 1988 draft and he eventually appeared on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list every year from 1993-95, topping out at No. 26 in 1994. 

Because the Yankees had Don Mattingly at first base and Wade Boggs at third, Davis was a regular in trade rumors. "I couldn't get away from it. Hearing my name on ESPN, that's big time for me. When I heard my name on ESPN, especially for someone like Andy Benes, that was something," Davis, then 24, told Jack Curry in Feb. 1994.

"Barring an injury, it's going to be tough for him to make our club," then-manager Buck Showalter told Curry. "I know a young player who has had a quality year doesn't want to hear that. We have to keep in mind what's best for him and the organization ... I think Russell has the chance to be an impact player in the Major Leagues. As far as being untouchable in a trade, I wouldn't go that far."

Davis hit .276/.374/.538 with 25 homers in 117 Triple-A games in 1994 and made his MLB debut that July, after Mattingly landed on the disabled list. He went 2-for-14 (.143) with four strikeouts in four games before being sent back down. The 1994 season came to an abrupt end on Aug. 12th because of the strike, so there was no opportunity for a Sept. call-up.

The same roadblocks that existed in 1994 remained in 1995. Davis was blocked by Boggs and Mattingly, so he returned to Triple-A to begin the season. There was a brief call-up in May (3-for-12) before the extended audition began in mid June. Davis went 8-for-13 (.444) with a homer in his first six games back and forced his way into a platoon with Boggs.

"You hear 20,000 fans cheering, it's something I won't forget," Davis told Gerald Eskenazi after taking David Wells deep for his first MLB home run. Fun fact: Showalter pinch-hit for Davis later in the game despite the homer. (Baseball Reference has the Yankee Stadium attendance at 24,673 that day, in case you're wondering.)

On Aug. 16th, Davis went 2-for-3 to bring his batting line to .329/.410/.507 through 83 plate appearances. He cooled down considerably after that though, so much so that he started only two games in September as the Yankees chased down the first ever Wild Card spot. A .311/.378/.500 line against lefties earned Davis a spot on the ALDS roster and the start at third base against Randy Johnson in Game 3. He went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.

The Yankees were ready to move on from Mattingly after the season and while Davis was a natural candidate to step in at first base, GM Bob Watson instead cashed him in as a trade chip. Davis was sent to the Mariners in the Tino Martinez trade on Dec. 7th, 1995. He hit .259/.325/.393 with two homers in 44 games in pinstripes. The full trade:

• Yankees receive: 1B Tino Martinez, RHP Jeff Nelson
• Mariners receive: 3B Russ Davis, LHP Sterling Hitchcock, RHP Jim Mecir

"Who knows? They might become stars," Watson told Jack Curry after the trade, referring to Davis (then 26) and Hitchcock (then 24). "In order to get something, you have to give up something." 

Curry says Davis (and Hitchcock) considered it "a dream to play for the Yankees, but happily moved on" because they finally had a clear path to playing time. Davis opened 1996 as Seattle's starting third baseman but a broken leg ended his season on June 7th. The injury limited him to only 51 games, during which he hit .234/.312/.377 with five homers.

"The foot was bent at an odd angle. I had felt a sharp pain and heard something pop or tear," David told Bob Finnegan after suffering the injury crashing into the wall chasing a foul pop-up at Kauffman Stadium. "But the worst thing was the way it looked. It was sickening."

Davis healed up in time for Spring Training 1997 and he reclaimed the starting this base job. He slugged 20 homers and authored a .271/.317/.488 batting line, which made him only the eighth best hitter on the team by OPS+. This was the Mariners' regular lineup in 1997:

1. 2B Joey Cora (110 OPS+)
2. SS Alex Rodriguez (120 OPS+)
3. CF Ken Griffey Jr. (165 OPS+)
4. DH Edgar Martinez (165 OPS+)
5. RF Jay Buhner (132 OPS+)
6. 1B Paul Sorrento (123 OPS+)
7. C Dan Wilson (96 OPS+)
8. 3B Russ Davis (109 OPS+)
9. LF Jose Cruz (120 OPS+)

Lordy. The Mariners have had so many great players in their history (A-Rod, Griffey, Edgar, Ichiro, Randy Johnson, Felix Hernandez, etc.) and yet nary a World Series appearances to show for it. It's incredible how little team success they've had despite all that all-time great talent, much of it on the roster at the same time.

Anyway, Davis remained with the Mariners through the 1999 season and his claim to fame is hitting the first ever home run at what is now called T-Mobile Park. Here's the video. He hit .256/.309/.446 with 66 homers in four seasons with Seattle but his defense at third was so wretched that the total package was worth only +0.1 WAR. Ouch. Davis was released after the 1999 season.

Davis signed with the Giants and hit .259/.314/.455 with 16 homers in 133 games across parts of two seasons with San Francisco before being released in June 2001. He never played professional baseball -- majors or minors -- again. Martinez, meanwhile, won four World Series titles during the five-year contract he signed after the trade, and he now has a plaque in Monument Park.

x. Rapid fire thoughts. Turns out Aroldis Chapman's suspension may be pushed back to next season, Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty over the weekend. “I heard there needed to be a (second) hearing because certain people weren’t invited or in the hearing. So, I really don’t know where it stands," he said. Huh, that's a new one. That's good for the Yankees though, who will have their closer this week as they push for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Series. Chapman missing the first three (or fewer) games early next season is no big deal ... According to Jon Morosi, the Tigers will consider Yankees hitting coach Marcus Thames for their managerial vacancy. Thames spent most of his playing career in Detroit and he's very personable and beloved by his players, and after all these years with the Yankees, I assume he's well-versed in analytics. I don't think this will be the last time we hear Thames connected to a managerial vacancy. He checks all the boxes for a modern rookie skipper ... And finally, MLB.com has an update on each team's top prospect not at the alternate site. That's Jasson Dominguez for the Yankees, who is MLB.com's highest ranked top 100 prospect not in a 60-man player pool (he's No. 49 on the top 100). Here's what they say about the Martian:

Just 17, he has yet to make his pro debut and is following a program the Yankees laid out for him to work on his hitting, defense and strength and conditioning. He keeps in communication with the organization's Dominican coaches and often sends video of his live action and drill work to club officials so they can see his progress. 

Dominguez regularly posts workout and game video on Instagram. Based on the signage at the field, it looks like those games are being put together by his representatives. That's good. I mean, it's not good compared to an actual minor league season, but it's better than nothing. Really looking forward to Dominguez's pro debut next year, assuming MLB and MiLB can reach a new agreement and have a proper minor league season in 2021.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)