September 18th, 2020: Postseason Schedule & Roster, Frazier, Mailbag

Two weeks from today the Yankees will either be picking up the pieces following an early postseason exit, or they'll be on their way to the Southern California bubble for the ALDS. The magic number to clinch a postseason spot is four. Could happen before the next post. Let's get to today's thoughts as I revel in the majesty of a five-homer inning.

1. Postseason schedule. MLB officially announced plans for the postseason bubble and the postseason schedule earlier this week. The best-of-three Wild Card Series (not Wild Card Round as I'd been calling it) will be played at the higher seed's ballpark before the eight winners move into bubbles in Texas and Southern California. The bracket:

If the season ended today the Yankees would play the Twins at Target Field in the Wild Card Series, then they'd play either Cleveland or the White Sox at Petco Park in the ALDS should they advance. 

“Not a fan of the bubble. I’m not a fan of the whole setup," Aaron Judge told Scott Orgera yesterday. "Like I said before, it doesn’t really reward a team for going out and winning. There’s really no homefield advantage anymore."

Arizona is the backup bubble in case games have to be moved due to the air quality in California (because the West Coast is on fire) or storms in Texas (because there are five cyclones over the Atlantic Ocean at the moment).

Here are the particulars of the postseason bubble and what it all means for the Yankees.

No in-series off-days

Because there will be no travel required during the LDS and LCS, there will be no in-series off-days. The LDS will be five games in five days and the LCS will be seven games in seven days, though the World Series will have the usual 2-3-2 format with off-days after Games 2 and 5. Here's the American League postseason schedule:

• Regular season ends Sun., Sept. 27th, then off-day Mon., Sept. 28th.
• Wild Card Series: Tues., Sept. 29th to Thurs., Oct. 1st (three games in three days)
• Off-days from Fri., Oct. 2nd to Sun., Oct. 4th (travel to bubble, intake testing, etc.)
• ALDS: Mon., Oct. 5th to Fri., Oct. 9th (five games in five days)
• Off-day Sat., Oct. 10th
• ALCS: Sun., Oct. 11th to Sat., Oct. 17th (seven games in seven days)
• Off-days Sun., Oct. 18th and Mon., Oct. 19th
• World Series: Tues., Oct. 20th to Weds., Oct. 28th (seven games in nine days)

The National League bracket begins one day later and they get only one off-day between the NLCS and World Series. Every year one league gets the extra off-day before the Wild Card Game-slash-Series and the other gets it before the World Series to spread games out and stagger broadcasts and all that (the leagues alternate years).

Anyway, no in-series off-days puts a premium on starting pitching because you can't count on those built-in off-days to rest your bullpen, and it means teams will have to use at least four starters in the postseason, probably five depending how long each series goes. Given what we know right now, I'd bet on the Yankees doing something like this:

• Game 1: Gerrit Cole
• Game 2: Masahiro Tanaka
• Game 3: Deivi Garcia
• Game 4: J.A. Happ with a short leash
• Game 5: Jordan Montgomery with a short leash

Maybe it's Montgomery in Game 4 and Happ in Game 5. We can worry about that another time. The Yankees have to get out of the Wild Card Series before we can start planning for Games 4-5. Adding a spare starter or reliever at the trade deadline sure would've come in handy, huh? To be fair, this is all a new development (not that the Yankees needed another reason to do something at the deadline).

"We are just learning of that," Aaron Boone told Ken Davidoff earlier this week when asked when teams learned there would be no in-series off-days in October. "We heard different rumors. The no off-day stuff is news."

For now, just know the schedule will make leaning on the bullpen much tougher in the postseason because those built-in off-days aren't available for rest. I like it, it rewards teams with depth*, but it does hurt the Yankees, I think. Using Chad Green and Zack Britton six times in a seven-game series isn't a thing that can happen now, or at least not without wearing them down and likely reducing their effectiveness. The Jonathans (Holder and Loaisiga) and Luis Cessa are suddenly that much more important as depth arms.

"I actually like it. Here’s why: it tells you the talent of the whole team," Joe Girardi told Davidoff regarding the lack of in-series off-days. "And it’s what we do for 162 games (in a normal season). We use five starters, and we have to do that. I’m actually a fan of it."

* I fully acknowledge I'm probably in the minority here. The built-in rest days mean the best players (the best pitchers, really) get to play and be at their best more often in the postseason, and people want to watch the best players. That's a good thing overall. I just prefer something closer to regular season baseball, where the entire roster matters.

28-man roster plus 12-man taxi squad

Clubs will have a 40-man player pool in the postseason: 28-man active roster plus a 12-man taxi squad. The player pool has to be submitted this Sunday, according to Marc Topkin. This past Tuesday was the postseason-eligibility deadline, so any free agent signings or waiver claims from here on out are postseason ineligible. We'll dig into the 40-man player pool a little bit later in this post.

A potentially very long road trip starts today

Starting next Tuesday., Sept. 22nd, American League teams will move into a lockdown that serves as a seven-day quarantine prior to the postseason (the National League will do the same one day later). This essentially means being on the road while at home. Teams will be isolated at hotels and follow road protocols the final week of the regular season even if they are playing at home.

The Yankees open a three-game series in Boston later tonight and it is possible the players won't go home (like home home) until late October. They're on the road the next seven days (three in Boston and four in Buffalo), then they finish the regular season with a three-game home series against the Marlins, during which they'll be isolated at a hotel. After that, the Yankees could go on the road for the Wild Card Series, then off into the bubble. Yeesh.

"It was bye to my wife and mother-in-law and kids, you know, hopefully for a little while," Boone told Orgera. "We’ll check into a hotel here in New York and essentially continue a bubble of sorts. We’ll get back from Buffalo and go right to the hotel.

"My family is very supportive and with school back in and things going on, their world’s very busy right now too," Boone added. "So try to make the most of FaceTime and hopefully come home with a prize. I packed with 5-6 weeks in mind so hopefully they’ll be able to do laundry and dry cleaning for us. But I made sure there’s plenty of underwear in there.”

There are plans and protocols in place to allow select family members into the bubble and apparently the bubbles themselves will be at sprawling resorts, so it's not like MLB will lock these guys down at a Marriott. Still, that is a long, long time to be away from home. Being isolated that long takes a mental toll *gestures at the last six months* but it's the best way to complete the postseason safely. There's too much money on the line and MLB has one shot at this. They can't make it up on the fly like they have at times in the regular season.

West Coast start times?

MLB has not yet announced the individual postseason game start times -- that'll happen once the regular season is over and the postseason matchups are set -- but American League teams are playing in a West Coast bubble, meaning there will be a few 10pm ET start times. They're a necessary evil with games staggered to maximize viewers.

Fortunately, the Yankees are the Yankees, and they're all but assured a prime time slot, regardless of matchup. The Athletics are very likely to be the only West Coast team in the American League bracket, and if they don't make it out of the Wild Card Series, I guess teams in the Central Time Zone will get hosed with the 10pm ET starts. It won't be the Yankees though. They draw too many eyeballs to get bumped that late.

Prime time games present their own problems though. An 8pm ET start time in New York is a 5pm ET start time in California, so the shadows could come into play. Also, it could be hot as hell. There was a World Series game at Dodger Stadium three years ago that was 103 degrees at first pitch. That's about as far as you can get from October baseball in the Bronx.

I'm confident MLB will not schedule the Yankees to play any games at 10pm ET, should they advance to the bubble. Those late West Coast start times will go to less popular teams. The shadows and heat will just have to be something the Yankees deal with, if they're issues at all. Gonna look very different than Yankee Stadium in October though. That's for sure.

Fans? Fans??? 

Incredibly, commissioner Rob Manfred recently said he hopes fans will be allowed to attend LCS and World Series games. From Evan Drellich (subs. req'd):

“I’m hopeful that the World Series and the LCS we will have limited fan capacity,” Manfred said. “I think it’s important for us to start back down the road. Obviously it’ll be limited numbers, socially distanced, protection provided for the fans in terms of temperature checks and the like. Kind of the pods like you saw in some of the NFL games. We’ll probably use that same theory. But I do think it’s important as we look forward to 2021 to get back to the idea that live sports, they’re generally outdoors, at least our games. And it’s something that we can get back to."

Do you know what happens when you try to put something inside a bubble? It bursts. A bubble is not a bubble if you let outsiders in. That puts the whole thing at risk. But, fans equal dollars, and MLB will forever bow at the alter of the almighty buck. Letting fans into the bubble would be needlessly risky and I can't say for certain MLB will wise up and not do it.

"We still don’t have rigorous enough testing and contact tracing to be confident we’re catching every outbreak that actually happens at a stadium," epidemiologist Zach Binney told Bill Shaikin. “I don’t think I’ll be convinced by October this is a safe thing to do, or that the risks are outweighed by the benefits. Is the revenue really going to make a difference to baseball?"

2. Expanded postseason here to stay? Let me start by saying I am totally cool with the 16-team postseason format this season. It's a weird season and MLB might as well use it as an opportunity to try new things. Already though, commissioner Rob Manfred is talking about the 16-team format becoming permanent. From Dave Sheinin:

Manfred also said the expanded, 16-team postseason is likely to remain beyond 2020, adding that “an overwhelming majority” of owners had already endorsed the concept before the pandemic. 

“I think there’s a lot to commend it,” he said, “and it is one of those changes I hope will become a permanent part of our landscape.”

No one has seen the expanded postseason in action yet, why are we commending it? The money-making potential, of course, which is the top priority on Park Ave. These days, if an idea comes from MLB, it's very safe to assume it will result in short-term financial gain for the owners and nothing else. The long-term well-being of the sport is hardly a priority.

An expanded postseason brings two-fold financial gain. More postseason games equals more revenue (duh) and it disincentivizes winning, allowing teams to hold a firmer line on payroll. Why spend that extra $15M or $20M or so when the only difference between 84 wins and 96 wins is homefield advantage in a best-of-three series? Teams will strive for mediocrity under the guise of "we can get hot at the right time."

The financial component can be negotiated with the MLBPA -- the Gerrit Coles will still get theirs but the middle tier free agents would get hammered (again) with an expanded postseason -- but there is nothing that could be done to avoid watering down the 162-game regular season. Sub-.500 teams would make the postseason annually and division races would be obsolete.

Right now, in this mad dash 60-game season, there is exactly one postseason spot still up for grabs: No. 8 spot in the National League, and that race features five sub-.500 teams hitting their head on the door jamb each time they walk through. It is the least compelling postseason race of my lifetime and we're forced to humor ourselves by pretending the Blue Jays and Yankees battling for second place in the AL East means something.

After a long 162-game season in which teams have more time to create separation in the standings, September races would be even less exciting with an expanded postseason. It would turn MLB into the NBA, with "load management" the big buzzword before October. Teams rest their players a lot now! What happens when they have a postseason berth sewn up in July or August?

The best postseason formats give teams incentive to win. The current (former?) Wild Card Game format works because winning the division means something. Being the No. 1 seed should be more valuable than being the No. 2 seed, and being the No. 2 seed should be more valuable than being the No. 3 seed, so on and so forth. Winning should be rewarded.

MLB will parrot the expanded postseason giving more teams a chance at the World Series, and that is true, but it comes with a cost. The regular season becomes less meaningful and the postseason becomes an even bigger crapshoot, and winning division has no value. Never forget when Brian Cashman admitted the Yankees conceded the 2010 AL East title because there was nothing to gain (via Joe Smith, emphasis mine):

"We conceded the division two years ago cause of the (single wild card) setup," Cashman said. "I'm not taking away from Tampa Bay's eastern division title, but we didn't try to win the division. We tried to line up ourselves for the playoffs and that worked. We wound up sweeping Minnesota and going to play the Texas Rangers two years ago because we got our guys healthy and ready to go. Because, the division title, in essence -- the way the wild card situation was sitting -- it was rendered meaningless the way the setup was. Whether you're a wild card or division champ, it really meant nothing more than a t-shirt and a hat."

...

"When you're in a position where we were, and you have to make tough choices on giving the division away to better yourself in a position to take a run at the title because that's what we're all playing for, I felt we made the perfect decision to say -- I wouldn't say we gave it away because Tampa Bay earned it -- but we were willing to not win it if it meant putting ourselves in a better position to move forward in October. And those are choices that I think it's best to eliminate from the equation and I think the commissioner has done a great thing by doing that (with the Wild Card Game)."

The expanded postseason does the opposite of that. It makes it even easier to qualify for the postseason, thus reducing the urgency to improve your roster, and there is little reward for earning a higher seed. Homefield advantage just isn't enough. Maybe MLB will adopt an NPB style system where the higher seed starts the series with a 1-0 advantage, but that reduces the number of games necessary to complete a series, and equals fewer dollars.

Forget allowing more teams into the postseason. The single best thing MLB can do for the game is make it more accessible. That means no blackouts, no minor league contraction taking baseball away from smaller communities, and making everything cheaper. Tickets, streaming services, merchandise, literally every part of being a fan should be cheaper. That is how you grow the game. Not with a blatant cash grab of an expanded postseason format.

Manfred can not unilaterally implement the expanded postseason format. The MLBPA must agree to it and they agreed to it for 2020 only. It still has be negotiated for 2021 and beyond and it is a significant bargaining chip. The owners badly want it. Unfortunately, I fear the only question is what the union uses it to acquire. Higher minimum salary? Expansion and 50+ new jobs? Better couches in the clubhouse? Who knows.

I worry postseason expansion will soon become permanent, at which point being a baseball fan will be less enjoyable than it is now. The 162-game grind makes this game special and it's about to be diluted. Expanded postseason equals fewer meaningful games from April through September, and fans have way too many entertainment options these days to think they'll sit through all 162 when a postseason spot is so easily attainable.

3. 40-man postseason pool. Alright, let's focus on the Yankees now. As noted earlier, clubs will have a 40-man player pool for the postseason, split into a 28-man roster and a 12-man taxi squad. The roster has to be submitted Sunday, which seems kinda early, but I assume it has to do with pre-postseason lockdown and quarantine.

Building the Yankees' 40-man player pool is fairly straight forward. It'll be active roster guys and the guys who have been going up-and-down all season. This is the postseason and the sole priority is winning. We're not going to see 40-man roster prospects Luis Gil and Luis Medina on that 12-man taxi squad, for example. Players who can help the MLB roster only.

James Paxton was transferred to the 45-day injured list earlier this week, and while he will be eligible to return for the ALCS, it's hard to believe he'll be able to contribute in a meaningful way. He recently suffered a setback and has not yet resumed throwing. The best case scenario was getting him back as a one-inning reliever for the ALDS, and now that's off the table. He's not a consideration for the 40-man postseason pool. The 45-day injured list stint confirms it.

Then there's Domingo German. His suspension ends after the third postseason game, so he'll be eligible to return either Game 1 of the ALDS (if the Wild Card Series goes the distance) or Game 2 of the ALDS (if the Wild Card Series is a sweep). We have no idea what German has been up to these last few months (other than retiring and unretiring) or what sort of shape he's in. How close to game ready is he? Could he actually be an ALDS option?

My guess is the Yankees will not include German in their 40-man player pool. It's really hard for me to believe he will be a realistic option -- an option to pitch in the postseason -- after not pitching in a real game for over a full year. Seems best to activate him off the restricted list, then tell him to get ready for Spring Training. Thanks, but no thanks.

(The Yankees will need to open a 40-man roster spot when German's suspension is up even if they don't add him to the player pool. That's a problem to worry about when the time comes and not a second sooner.)

Now that we've sorted German out and the Yankees took the guesswork out of Paxton's situation, let's build the 40-man postseason player pool, beginning with the obvious calls.

The Locks

• Position players (14): OF Clint Frazier, OF Brett Gardner, OF Aaron Hicks, C Kyle Higashioka, OF Aaron Judge, C Erik Kratz, IF DJ LeMahieu, C Gary Sanchez, DH Giancarlo Stanton, OF Mike Tauchman, SS Gleyber Torres, 3B Gio Urshela, 1B Luke Voit, IF Tyler Wade
• Pitchers (14): LHP Zack Britton, RHP Luis Cessa, LHP Aroldis Chapman, RHP Gerrit Cole, RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Chad Green, LHP J.A. Happ, RHP Jonathan Holder, RHP Mike King, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Nick Nelson, RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP Masahiro Tanaka

The first 28 spots go to guys currently on the active roster. Easy enough. Three catchers is overkill, I think, but teams will of course include three catchers on their postseason player pool. They'll probably carry four catchers. Remember, we're not building a 28-man active roster. We're building the 40-man player pool. Three catchers is the absolute minimum.

The Up & Down Guys

• Position players (3): 3B/OF Miguel Andujar, IF Thairo Estrada, 1B Mike Ford
• Pitchers (4): RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Ben Heller, RHP Brooks Kriske, RHP Clarke Schmidt

Andujar, Estrada, and Ford are self-explanatory. They've been the primary up-and-down depth guys all year (Ford was sent down for the first time earlier this week, but you know what I mean) and they will be the first line of defense in the postseason. They get us to 31 players on our 40-man player pool.

Abreu, Heller, and Kriske have gone up and down multiple times this season and Schmidt is an obvious player pool candidate given his bat-missing stuff and his potential to start or relieve. These four have been the extra arms all season. That will continue in October. The four pitchers get us to 35 players (17 position players and 18 pitchers). Five spots to go.

The Necessary Depth Players

• Position players (2): C Wynston Sawyer, IF Jordy Mercer

The Yankees have thus far resisted playing Urshela anywhere other than third base, so with only four true middle infielders on the roster (Estrada, LeMahieu, Torres, Wade), I think there needs to be an extra one in the player pool. Mercer, an established big league veteran who spent time with the Yankees earlier this year, gets the call over Matt Duffy and Kyle Holder.

A fourth catcher might be overkill, but man, that is not a position where you want to get caught shorthanded. The position carries a ton of inherent injury risk, and the lack of in-series off-days means catchers will deal with that much more wear and tear. You don't have to try real hard to see a team losing two catchers to injury. That's a nightmare scenario, and it is easier to envision that becoming a reality than it is needing a 16th reliever.

Sawyer was added the 40-man roster earlier this week -- the Yankees immediately sent him back to the alternate site, which is weird (maybe he had an opt-out in his contract and they didn't want to lose him? dunno) -- making him the obvious fourth catcher. Josh Thole and Rob Brantly are at the alternate site and both have MLB time, but they're not on the 40-man. Sawyer's the guy. We're at 37 spots. Three to go.

(I wonder who the emergency catcher is these days. Maybe Voit? He started his career as a catcher but hasn't caught in a game since he was in the NY-Penn League in 2013. My guess is the Yankees would slap the gear on Wade before putting Voit at risk of injury.)

The Remaining Candidates

• Position players: UTIL Rosell Herrera, OF Estevan Florial, OF Zack Granite
• Pitchers: LHP Fernando Abad, LHP Luis Avilan, LHP Ryan Buchter, LHP Tyler Lyons, RHP Tony Zych

We can safely rule out alternate site prospects like Gil, Medina, and Alex Vizcaino seeing how they've yet to pitch above Single-A. Instructional League is a go this month and that's where they belong. Also, don't count on righty reliever Addison Russ making his MLB debut in October. Either way, we still have three spots to fill in our 40-man player pool.

Florial is on the 40-man roster and has been up a few times this year. The Yankees already have five true outfielders on the roster (Frazier, Gardner, Hicks, Judge, Tauchman), plus they've put Andujar out there, and Stanton and Wade are always options as well. You don't want to put Andujar or Wade out there though, so I think Florial makes it as a deep depth defensive replacement/pinch-running option. He gives you everything Granite gives you but is already on the 40-man, and giving him a taste of the postseason wouldn't be a bad thing at all, even as a taxi squad guy. Two spots to go.

Herrera had a strong  Spring Training that got lost to the pandemic, and then a heel injury in Summer Camp took him out of the Opening Day roster mix. On one hand, his ability to play the infield and outfield would seem to make him an obvious fit. On the other hand, the Yankees have not even carried him on their road trip taxi squad at any point this year, which I don't think bodes well for his postseason chances. Plus we're already at 20 position players. That's plenty.

Because of that, I'm going to take the boring way out and say the Yankees give the final two 40-man player pool spots to pitchers. At least one lefty makes sense and Avilan was on the Opening Day roster, but he went down with a shoulder injury, and I'm not sure what he's up to now. Abad or Buchter or Lyons might be healthier and in better position to help. That said, I don't think the Yankees would've re-signed Avilan if he were still hurt. 

I'm including Avilan in the player pool, and I'll go with Lyons for the final spot because he was on the postseason roster last year, and that's about as good a reason to carry him as any at this point. No one knows what's going on at the alternate site (I know Zych was on the road trip taxi squad at least once this year, so he must be doing okay). So, based on all that, this is our 40-man player pool:

Unless they revised the rules this year (always possible but seems unlikely in this case), the 28-man active roster can be changed between rounds. Gotta think teams will build their best-of-three Wild Card Series roster differently than their best-of-five LDS or best-of-seven LCS roster. You don't need your fifth starter in the Wild Card Series, etc. The roster can change between rounds. The 40-man player pool can not.

The active roster is 28 men deep but you're hoping to only use 18 or so. Your nine position players, four starting pitchers, and maybe five relievers. That's ideal. With no in-series off-days though, that will be close to impossible, and those final 8-10 spots will carry that much more importance. I'm looking forward to it. Reward the teams with depth and the teams that best persevere through the grind.

4. Frazier's improved defense. Clint Frazier's defense has improved so much this season. That is based on the eye test because defensive stats are not to be trusted in samples this small -- Frazier has played only 207 innings in the outfield -- but the numbers agree:

2019 DRS: -8
2020 DRS: +4

2019 Outs Above Average: -12
2020 Outs Above Average: +2

Earlier this week Frazier admitted his 2018 concussion, which he suffered after crashing into the wall twice in quick succession, hurt his defense in 2019. He was still experiencing symptoms and was apprehensive chasing after the ball, particularly when he was near the wall. That is no longer the case this year. Frazier is much more aggressive in the outfield.

"Last year was tough. I didn’t speak as much on how much the concussion stuff was bothering me out there. I was having issues with my depth perception and issues with not wanting to run into the wall and have it happen again," Frazier told George King. “I felt symptoms last year at times but wanted to play. I struggled with it. I feel I am back to where I was but a little bit better because I feel confident. I am getting really good jumps on the ball and whether I have to dive for the ball or not I feel confident out there right now whereas in the past a little more gun shy and didn’t want to dive. I feel really good out there."

To be clear, Frazier is staying in the lineup because of his bat, not his glove. He's hitting .291/.413/.573 (166 wRC+) overall -- pretty awesome that when Aaron Judge went down, Clint stepped in and provided Judge level offense -- and you can't take that out of the lineup. Not when the alternatives are Brett Gardner (100 wRC+) and Mike Tauchman (78 wRC+). Frazier is still playing because he's hitting, first and foremost. The defense is secondary.

"Clint is very much in this mix. It may be more left field reps for Clint but Clint has earned his way into our lineup on a regular basis," Aaron Boone told King earlier this week. "He continues to play extremely well on both sides of the ball. I think it is going to make us deeper and I'm excited about that. But Clint has earned a significant role on this team."

Frazier is not going to win a Gold Glove anytime soon. His defense has gone from terrible to mostly average, and the Yankees put him in right field during Judge's absence because that is the small part of Yankee Stadium. It's easier to hide a subpar defender there. With Judge back, Clint has slid over to left field, the biggest part of Yankee Stadium, and of course he was tested with a screamer in his very first inning (video link):

That ball left Bo Bichette's bat at 107.5 mph and had an expected batting average of .680 given the trajectory. Not an easy play by any means, and it's the sort of play that might've given Frazier problems last season seeing how he had to venture back near the wall. His natural reaction post-concussion might have been to pull up and play the carom. Instead, he ran it down and turned a potential extra-base hit into an out.

What happens in the outfield next season, I'm not sure, but right now the best alignment is Frazier in left, Judge in right, and Aaron Hicks in center. Clint is no longer a liability in the outfield -- I am totally cool with putting Gardner out there for defense in the late innings, he is still the superior defender -- and he's an impact hitter. It's taken a little longer than I would have liked, but Frazier is finally an everyday player. There's no glaring weakness in his game.

"There was definitely a moment where I was smiling under my mask in left field," Frazier told King following Wednesday's game. "I really tried hard to win this job and obviously there are other guys on the team that can play that position. But to be the one who gets to go out there when the team is at full strength (means a lot)."

5. Rapid fire thoughts. I hate -- HATE -- the Miguel Andujar demotion. He's finally hitting and Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are not playing every single game as they work their way back into game shape. At-bats are available and a third catcher is totally unnecessary (Erik Kratz has started once in the last 12 games and his last two appearances came at first base). Andujar's agent spoke to Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) and accused the Yankees of service time manipulation -- "(There is) a large charade that has continued to be played when it comes to controlling assets," he said -- and I get the frustration. A trade would certainly be the best thing for Andujar at this point. His value is down though, and he has a minor league option remaining for next season. For the Yankees, he's good (and cheap) depth and worth keeping. Andujar's situation is similar to Clint Frazier's situation last year, except there are three extra roster spots this year and one is being wasted on a third catcher. I hate it ... Stanton went 4-for-5 with a double and a homer last night and is hitting .320/.460/.640 (194 wRC+) in his 16 games. Please, please stay healthy Giancarlo. This dude is a top tier hitter and it is crazy to me there are people out there who think the win-now Yankees are better without him ... And finally, the Yankees (and every other team) announced their 2021 Spring Training schedule earlier this week. Pitchers and catchers will take their physicals on Mon., Feb. 15th, and the first Grapefruit League game is Sat., Feb. 27th. I doubt the Yankees will go three days between the final Spring Training game and Opening Day as the schedule suggests. My guess is MLB hopes to send them to Montreal to play the two exhibition games against the Blue Jays that were canceled this spring. If travel into Canada is still an issue, then the Yankees could wind up playing an exhibition game or two elsewhere. We'll see.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Christopher asks: With the elimination of most off-days in the DS and CS, Clarke Schmidt has to make a start or two before the end of the year right? We've got 5 healthy starters aside from him and 2 weeks to go. Unless we're confident there will be no more SP injuries the rest of the year (lol), he's got to be the back-up plan right?

Yeah, I think Schmidt will make a start at some point these next 10 days. Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka are currently lined up to pitch the final two games of the regular season, but Aaron Boone was adamant they will not pitch those games and will instead get lined up for Games 1 and 2 of the Wild Card Series. At least two spot starters are required.

"We’re gonna make sure Gerrit Cole and Masa are eligible to pitch in that first round no matter what," Boone told Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) earlier this week. "That may compromise what we’re able to do that final weekend of the season. We’re gonna try as best we can to strike that balance and try and win as many games as we can, but it’s about getting into the dance, too."

Even if the Yankees go with bullpen games those days, they'll need arms to soak up innings, and Schmidt figures to be part of the parade. Could be a scenario where Mike King or Nick Nelson starts the penultimate game, then gets optioned for Schmidt so he can start the final game. Either way, yeah, I'd expect Schmidt to get a start at some point. Even if he is the No. 7 starter behind King in October, it'd be good to get him a tune-up start.

Dan asks: What is your realistic expectation for the Yankee OF over the next season or two, specifically regarding Tauchman, Frazier, and Andujar? If we're going on the presumption that Judge, Stanton, and Hicks are healthy (no jinx), it seems that may allow one 4th OF spot and/or one part time LF/DH spot to split with Stanton.

Miguel Andujar is blocked at first base (Luke Voit), third base (Gio Urshela), the two corner outfield spots (Clint Frazier and Aaron Judge), and at DH (Giancarlo Stanton). Andujar has a minor league option remaining for next year, so the Yankees can keep him around (wouldn't be a bad idea given Judge's and Stanton's injury histories), but it's hard to see where he fits with this team. Best case is he plays a few times a week when the other guys get rest days.

Judge is two years away from free agency and, given what we know right now, the outfield has to be Frazier-Hicks-Judge from left to right those two years. Clint is breaking through and proving to be an impact player, and he deserves to be in the lineup every day. Hicks is not going anywhere -- not-so-bold prediction: Hicks will be very good next year, as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery -- and neither is Judge. That's the outfield.

Gardner seems to be nearing the end of the line, but gosh, that dude has been counted out how many times the last few years? I think we're on Year 4 of "Gardner's done, time to move on." Assuming MLB goes to the 26-man roster next year (that was the plan this year before the pandemic), the Yankees could carry Gardner and Mike Tauchman on their four-man bench, but they'd be redundant. Doable but not ideal.

Two years is a long time in baseball. We'll worry about 2022 at a later time. Going into 2021 though, my expectation is Frazier-Hicks-Judge in the outfield, Tauchman on the bench, Gardner gone, and Andujar buried in the minors after a winter of trade rumors. I am no more than 30% confident in that. Gardner tends to keep coming back and I'd be fine with him as the fourth outfielder. Carrying both Gardner and Tauchman though? Eh. Not for me.

Paul asks: Assume for a minute that the Yankees truly believe in Gary's underlying numbers. Would it make sense to extend him, perhaps at a discount due to his recent performance? What might that look like?

The Yankees have never really been aggressive with extensions and I don't expect them to jump into any deals now. Not until things start to get back to normal and they can more confidently project future revenue. Besides, Gary Sanchez has been so bad this year that you have to wait to see him bounce back before signing him long-term.

Very few catchers sign extensions at Sanchez's service time level. Only two have done so in the last decade and one was a short-term deal (the Rangers gave Robinson Chirinos two years and $4.3M in 2017). The other is the five-year, $52.5M extension Salvador Perez signed in 2016. That would be a great benchmark for Sanchez in normal times.

These are not normal times. Revenue is down and Sanchez has been horrible this year (not that Perez was a world-beater at the time of his deal, though he was a heart and soul player coming off a World Series title). My guess is Gary would jump on Perez's deal in a heartbeat given his performance and the financial landscape.

Let's attempt to build an extension from scratch rather than use recent contract benchmarks (because there are so few benchmarks). Sanchez had a $5M full season salary this year. This work?

• 2021: $5M (second arbitration year)
• 2022: $7M (third arbitration year)
• 2023: $10M (first free agent year)
• 2024: $11M (second free agent year)
• 2025: $14M club option (third free agent year)

That's four years and $33M guaranteed that takes Sanchez through his age 31 season with an option for his age 32 season. Throw in a signing bonus and a buyout of the club option and we could call it $36M guaranteed, or $9M a year. That's probably enough to get Gary's attention but also not so much that the Yankees would dismiss it entirely. Only six catchers have $10M+ full season salaries this year (Perez, Yasmani Grandal, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, Wilson Ramos, J.T. Realmuto) and $9M doesn't get you much in general.

Sanchez has only had one normal season in the last three. He was bad in 2018 (91 wRC+) but played through a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery. This year is a total mess and I wouldn't hold a down year against anyone. Is Gleyber Torres suddenly a true talent .407 SLG hitter? Is Javy Baez now a true talent 63 wRC+ guy? What about Christian Yelich, is that .208 AVG the new normal? Lots of guys are having down years.

Last year was the only normal season Sanchez has had in a while and he hit .232/.316/.525 (116 wRC+) with 34 homers. That is our best estimate of who he is and what we should expect going forward given his age, and that guy is easily worth $9M a year, even with bad defense. If the Yankees believe Sanchez will bounce back, then yeah, approach him about an extension. I have no expectation of it happening though, mostly because team finances are a wreck.

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