September 10th, 2020: Garcia, Chapman, Frazier, Judge, Stanton, Mailbag

Tomorrow the Yankees will begin their most important series of the season and, as we all expected, it's against ... the Orioles? The Orioles. 2020 sucks, man. Anyway, here are Friday morning's thoughts Thursday evening since the Yankees were rained out tonight and there's no reason to wait.

1. Deivi's control. The best part of this season has been Deivi Garcia, hands down. The kid dazzled again last night, holding the Blue Jays to two runs on five hits and no walks in seven innings. He struck out six and is sitting on a 3.06 ERA (3.12 FIP). At +0.7 WAR, Deivi is a top 15 rookie this season after only three starts.

"Of course it is in your mind," Garcia told George King when asked about the team's losing ways. "We find ourselves in a losing streak, but I don’t see it as pressure. I see it more as a responsibility for me to give us a chance. I enjoy competing and being aggressive on the mound. The competition itself, I enjoy that." 

Two things in particular have impressed me about Garcia. One, he gets stronger as the game goes on. Through three starts his average fastball velocity in the sixth (93.0 mph) and seventh (93.4 mph) innings is higher than the first (91.8 mph) and second (92.0 mph) innings, and he varies his looks throughout the game. His pitch selection by inning:

Garcia has gone with mostly fastballs the first few innings (i.e. first time through the lineup) then he adds more curveballs in the middle innings (lineup turns over). He buried the Blue Jays with sliders in the seventh inning last night, when he was going through the lineup the third time. It's an old school approach, saving something new for each trip through the lineup. Deivi has four quality pitches and knows how to use them.

"The slider and the changeup I have a lot of confidence in," Garcia told King. "It was about changing their eye level the third time around and showing I can execute those pitches. I really like those pitches, key pitches for me to get outs."

And two, only two walks in 17.2 innings. If you'd have told me Garcia would post a 3.06 ERA in his first three starts, I would've believed it. If you'd have told me he'd strike out 18 in his first 17.2 innings, I would have believed that too. But two walks in 17.2 innings, and both in the same start? That is unexpected. Some numbers:

• Career minors: 10.4% walks
• 2019 all levels: 11.1% walks
• 2019 at Triple-A: 11.1% walks
• 2020 MLB: 2.9% walks

Garcia has two zero walk outings in three big league starts. He has eight zero walk outings in 65 career minor league starts, including just one in 2019. Garcia has thrown 56.6% of his pitches in the strike zone, well above the 49.8% MLB average and on par with noted strike-throwers like Marco Gonzales (57.7%) and Kyle Hendricks (54.9%).

Now, it's three starts and we should be careful not to read too much into Garcia's newfound strike-throwing ability. That doesn't mean we can't be impressed by what he's done though. He's had control problems throughout his career and he's been thrust into the rotation of a badly struggling Yankees team, and he hasn't had a proper minor league season. Walk problems would've been understandable. Instead, Garcia is pounding the zone.

Don't forget Garcia has made an adjustment this season, specifically shifting from the third base side of the rubber over to the first base side. David Cone explained the adjustment would help a pitcher who throws across his body (like Garcia) get the ball to his gloveside. It is entirely possible this tangible adjustment has led to Garcia throwing more strikes. We need to see more to know for sure, but the early returns are awfully encouraging.

Deivi's next start will be the biggest test of his brief MLB career to date. He's going to face a very good Blue Jays team again, so it's back-to-back starts against the same lineup, plus Toronto is likely to have Bo Bichette for that game (he's due to return any day now). It will be the first time a team sees Garcia a second time, so the element of surprise is gone, and both sides will have to make adjustments. I'm looking forward to the chess match.

The season ends in two weeks and three days and, if the Yankees qualify for the postseason, I don't see how Garcia is not the team's No. 3 starter given what we know right now. Jordan Montgomery hasn't been good the last few times out and while J.A. Happ was really good Tuesday, I still don't trust him in an important game (and Deivi's been better anyway). Maybe Garcia flops in his next few starts and things change, but, right now, he's the guy in Game 3. He's been ultra-impressive in every way -- stuff, control, and poise. 

“He's just got such good feel out there. Mound presence and moxie, I don't know what you call it, but the ability as a young pitcher to just kind of add and subtract with his fastball," Aaron Boone told Mark Feinsand following last night's game. "He got creative and went a little more to the slider that third time through the order. He just demonstrated a really good feel for pitching ... Just a real savvy performance by him.” 

2. Chapman's workload. There are two weeks and three days remaining in the regular season and it's time for the Yankees to take the reins off Aroldis Chapman and start getting him in games regularly. He's thrown only six innings this year -- that's six innings in 25 days on the active roster -- and he recently went five days between appearances because the rest of the team isn't creating save opportunities.

"I do feel like a player that’s missed a lot of time, that’s grinding back to the point where he wants to be," Chapman told Pete Caldera after blowing the save against the Mets last week. "It’s no secret my fastball is my No. 1 pitch and little by little ... I keep feeling better and better."

Chapman did not pitch at all in Summer Camp -- he didn't appear in an intrasquad game before his positive COVID-19 test -- and he threw only two simulated innings in Scranton before rejoining the roster, so he didn't have a normal Spring Training and build-up period, and now he's thrown only six innings in 25 days. That's not enough work and there's not much time remaining.

"I do feel like he’s very close to what he normally is," Aaron Boone told Caldera. "(There's) an element of him still working through not really having a Spring Training. With continued reps, hopefully he’ll get back to his dominant self."

This is already Chapman's fifth year with the Yankees and we've seen what happens when he goes too long without work. He gets wild -- he's not blessed with great control to begin with and he gets really wild after a long layoff -- and unpredictable, and given the nature of his role, that equals bad news. A closer who can't throw strikes is a nightmare.

I think Chapman should pitch every other game from here on out. He pitched Wednesday night but not Thursday night (because of the rainout), so run him out there Friday and then Sunday leading into Monday's off-day. Chapman can't sit this much. Pitch him every other game, even if it's the Yankees are trailing. If he's needed back-to-back days to close at some point, that's okay. Let him pitch in those high-leverage situations and adjust his schedule afterward. Just get him out there. (They could always scale back on his workload later, if necessary.)

There are two benefits to throwing Chapman every other day the rest of the season. One, it'll give him a chance to get into a rhythm heading into the postseason. He hasn't really been able to do that yet. And two, every inning Chapman throws is an inning a lesser reliever doesn't throw, giving the Yankees a better chance to win. The bullpen has been pretty terrible this year and Chapman is still really good. The more he pitches, the better it is for the Yankees.

Pitching every other game from here on out would get Chapman to 15 innings on the year, which isn't much, but is better than the 11 or so he is on pace to throw now. If the Yankees get to the postseason -- as bad as they've been lately, the odds are still in their favor -- they will need Chapman at the end of games to do anything meaningful, and they want him at his best, not still searching for it after this weird season.

Plan on every other game the rest of the way and be prepared to adjust as necessary when save opportunities arise and whatnot. Chapman needs the work and the more the Yankees get their best players on the field, the better. Even if they're losing, Chapman is more likely to keep the deficit where it is than some of the other guys out there. There's not much time remaining and the Yankees have to use it to get their closer in midseason form.

3. Frazier's swings (or lack thereof). I keep catching myself calling this a breakout season for Clint Frazier He's hitting .287/.406/.537 (158 wRC+) on the year, though he only has 96 plate appearances. Last year he hit .283/.330/.513 (117 wRC+) in 209 plate appearances before being sent down in June. Wasn't last year his breakout season? Whatever.

Frazier has been no worse than the Yankees' third best hitter the last few weeks and he is really maximizing damage on his swings. Here's where he ranks among the 288 hitters with at least 50 balls in play this year:

• Average exit velocity: 91.2 mph (41st in MLB, tied with Ronald Acuna)
• Hard-hit rate: 51.9% (16th in MLB, just ahead of Jose Abreu)
• Barrels per ball in play: 15.4% (23rd in MLB, tied with Joey Gallo) (what's a barrel?)

Great contact all around. When Clint swings and connects, he consistently drives the ball with authority. When he swings, I should emphasize, because Frazier's swing rate is one of the lowest in baseball. He's swung at only 35.0% of the pitches he's seen this year, fifth lowest among the 256 hitters with at least 90 plate appearances and well below the 45.7% league average. His ranks among those 256 hitters:

• Overall swing rate: 35.0% (5th lowest)
• In-zone swing rate: 53.4% (9th lowest)
• Out-of-zone swing rate: 16.9% (14th lowest)

Only Yasmani Grandal (34.2%), Brett Gardner* (34.4%), Alex Bregman (35.3%), and Carlos Santana (35.4%) swing less often than Frazier. Before his demotion last season, Frazier had a 44.5% swing rate (22.3% out of zone and 63.7% in-zone), so he's always been a man of few swings, but this year he's taken it to the extreme. The difference between this year and last year is one fewer swing every two plate appearances, give or take. It's a lot.

* Gardner has a career 36.2% swing rate and he hasn't swung at more than 38.3% of the pitches he's seen since 2013. He's always near the bottom of the league in swing rate. 

Throwing strikes is hard, and not swinging results in a lot of deep counts and a lot of walks. Clint is averaging 4.40 pitches per plate appearance, ninth most among the 256 hitters with at least 90 plate appearances. His 15.6% walk rate is 21st highest among those 256 hitters. Not swinging also equals strikeouts because there will be times you fall behind in the count and the pitcher has the advantage (Frazier has a 29.2% strikeout rate).

What Clint's doing now is obviously working -- again, he's hitting .287/.406/.537 (158 wRC+)  this year and is a .260/.326/.476 (111 wRC+) career hitter in 525 MLB plate appearances -- though I wonder whether he's too passive at the plate. There's a fine line between selective and passive. The ultra-low chase rate is good but the 53.4% in-zone swing rate seems like something that can be improved. (The league average is 64.5%.)

Frazier has taken 57 fastballs for called strikes this season. Here are their locations:

The plot is a good reminder that hitters shouldn't swing at every fastball in the zone just because it's a fastball in the zone. Some are too far down or too high up (or too far in or out) to really drive. There are more than a few over the middle of the plate though, and those are the pitches Frazier could probably stand to offer at a little more often.

I'm nitpicking here, because Frazier has been really good and he's still a young player trying to settle in and find his way in the league. And the fact he's so disciplined and doesn't chase out of the zone is a definite plus. The next step is being a little more aggressive in the strike zone rather than letting hittable pitches by. As good as Clint has been this year, it appears he has a clear path to being even better in the future offensively. 

4. Early returns from injury? Are the Yankees at the point where they should speed up Aaron Judge's and Giancarlo Stanton's rehab and bring them back sooner than they'd like? I think it has to be a consideration. The Yankees only have 17 games remaining and, at this rate, Judge and Stanton will be healthy just in time to watch the Orioles in the postseason. Not sure how much longer the Yankees can continue waiting. They need them now.

Here is the latest on Judge, via Erik Boland:

“I’m not sure all the baseball stuff that he did today,” said Boone, who on Sunday said Judge would be “ramping up” his baseball activity Monday. “I’ll get that report a little bit later, but I know he ran outside to start his ramp-up. I know he’s feeling [good] and everything went well in his first kind of running [more intensely] on the field. So that was good news.”  

And here's the latest on Stanton, via Boland:

“I think it’s just making sure that thing is completely healed and he’s in a position where he can go out and hopefully not be in a position to reinjure it,” Aaron Boone said Monday. “When we’re talking about soft tissue, you’ve got to be all the way healed. So maybe it’s been a little bit slow, but we do feel like he’s making really good progress right now, and the last few days have been pretty encouraging.”  

There's setback risk with an accelerated rehab (see: Judge reinjuring his calf five innings into his return) and that's something the Yankees have to weigh. Do you bring them back early now and risk losing them again? Normally I'd say no. Let them get 100% healthy and get ready for the postseason. The Yankees played themselves out of that luxury though. Look at the recent nosedive their postseason odds took (they're back up to 92.3% after last night's win, which goes to show how much these can change each day):

(I highlighted their preseason odds from Spring Training, their preseason odds from July with the old postseason format, their preseason odds with the new postseason format, and their odds after Tuesday's loss.)

The Orioles are 1.5 games back. The Tigers are 2.5 games back as I write this and the Mariners are three games back. The Yankees still have seven games remaining with the Blue Jays, so they could pull back into second place, but how confident are you they can beat Toronto six or seven times in the next two weeks? Because that's what it'll take pass them. Going 4-3 or 5-2 in those seven games isn't enough.

We don't know much about Judge's and Stanton's rehab. Is one ahead of the other? Is one at increased risk of a setback? The Yankees know the answers to those questions and it could be one will be ready to DH sooner than the other. In that case, I say bring him back as soon as he can swing a bat and go station-to-station on the bases. The offense is a mess and missing the postseason is a legitimate possibility.

James Paxton won't throw the next few days because he's sore -- "I don't think he's reinjured or anything. I think he's just a little sore from the volume of throwing," Boone told Bryan Hoch earlier today -- and, given the nature of his injury, the Yankees couldn't accelerate his rehab anyway. He has a flexor strain and is at risk of having his ligament going out. You can't do that to him. Not with free agency on the horizon. Gio Urshela's injury is not really a rehab thing. The bone spur is a pain management thing. There's nothing to accelerate. As soon as the discomfort goes away and his elbow works properly, he'll play.

I tend to be very conservative with injuries. Give players as much time as they need and then give them another day or two just to be safe. Under the circumstances, that is not really possible right now. The Yankees are fighting for their postseason lives and they need all the help they can get. Judge or Stanton at, say, 75% is much better than the guys the Yankees have been running out there.

Also, don't discount what Judge's and Stanton's returns could do for the clubhouse. Confidence is low at the moment. How could it not be? "I almost feel like it’s embarrassing for us right now. I feel like teams aren’t really scared of us right now. And it’s kind of a sad thing because we’re the New York Yankees," Luke Voit told Brendan Kuty the other day.

The clubhouse seems like it could use a jolt -- a trade deadline addition could've provided that but lol -- and there's no greater jolt available than Judge or Stanton. On the flip side, those guys coming back too early and getting hurt again could be an even bigger hit to the team's confidence than their recent play. That's a risk the Yankees have played themselves into considering seriously.

Last night's win was a nice little pick-me-up and perhaps stringing together a few wins would buy them time with Judge and Stanton, but I don't see it that way. The race is going to be very tight either way and the Yankees are a better team with them than without them, and they need their best team on the field as often as possible these final two weeks to reach the postseason. 

5. Winning season streak in jeopardy. At 22-21, the Yankees are in danger of posting their first losing season since going 76-86 in 1992. Their 27 straight winning seasons is the second longest such streak in history, behind the 1926-64 Yankees (39 straight seasons). To put that in perspective, if this current streak goes on to match the record streak, Gleyber Torres will be 34 years old in Year 39 (2031). Lordy.

Tuesday's loss dropped the Yankees to 21-21 on the season, the first time they were .500 or worse in September since they were 61-61 on Sept. 6th, 1995. Those Yankees won 19 of their final 23 games to clinch the first AL Wild Card spot in history. Can the 2020 team rally to clinch the first No. 8 seed (or even No. 7 seed if you're feeling optimistic) in history? Hard to feel like it could happen right now but of course it's possible.

I went back and dug up the closest calls for the 27 winning seasons streak. Here's the latest the Yankees won their 82nd game to clinch a winning record during this streak (57th win in 1994 and 73rd win in 1995 because of the strike-shortened seasons):

1. 2014: Game 159 on Sept. 25th
2. 2016: Game 158 on Sept. 28th
3. 1995: Game 138 on Sept. 23rd (six games remaining in 144-game season)
4. 2013: Game 155 on Sept. 21st
5. 2008: Game 153 on Sept. 18th

The closest call came in 2014, when the Yankees were 76-74 before winning eight of their final 12 games to clinch a winning record and get to 84 wins. The 1998 Yankees picked up their 82nd win in their 111th game, by the way. They clinched a winning record on Aug. 7th. I lived through it and watched it with my own eyes and that's still hard to believe. 

The winning seasons streak is a cool baseball thing that doesn't really have much real world value, though I definitely appreciate it. The worst Yankees team we've seen over the last quarter-century still won 84 games. When that's as bad as it gets, you know you're spoiled. Recent struggles notwithstanding, I appreciate the Yankees never being awful. Even when they're bad, they'll still pretty good. Every fan base should be so lucky.

If the Yankees finish with a losing record during this unusual 60-game season, do we count it as a streak-ender? I say yes. The season is happening and a champion will be crowned, and every team is playing (roughly) the same number of games. We could qualify it in the future as "winning record in 162-game seasons," but then you have to account for 1994 and 1995, and it gets messy. Weird season, I know, but it is a season. It counts.

The Yankees are 22-21 and they need to go at least 9-8 in their final 17 games to clinch a winning record and extend the streak. With the way they've played lately, that's a big ask. It is certainly doable though. Go 9-8 from here on out -- that's an 86-win pace across a full 162-game season -- and the winning streak gets to live on. If this team with this much talent can't post a winning record in a 60-game season, then the streak deserves to end.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees signed journeyman lefty reliever Ryan Buchter to a minor league contract earlier today, the team announced. He's going to the alternate site and the Yankees still have one open 60-man player pool spot according to my unofficial count. Buchter, 33, is a classic left-on-left specialist who wasn't very good against lefties with the Angels before being released (3-for-11 with five walks and one strikeout), but it's a small sample and the track record is pretty good. Am I the only one who thinks it's weird the Yankees are collecting lefty specialists in the three-batter minimum era? Buchter joins Fernando Abad, Luis Avilan, and Tyler Lyons at the official site. Huh. It's probably a function of who's available in free agency more than anything ... And finally, know what I really love about Deivi Garcia? His pace. There's no pace data available yet but the MLB average is 24.9 seconds between pitches this year (!) and I'm certain Garcia is under that. There has been a 20-second pitch clock at Double-A and Triple-A since 2015, so kids coming up now are used to it and working quickly. I love it. Give me a pitch clock. There is way too much downtime within games -- Sean Forman recently noted MLB is averaging three minutes and 44 seconds between balls in play this year, and yikes (it was under three minutes as recently as 2007) -- and a pitch clock will help. Games could be five hours for all I care. I just don't want to wait 30 seconds between pitches or four minutes between balls in play. A 20-second pitch clock with the bases empty is perfectly reasonable. I'm as pro-player as it gets but the players need to stop being babies about this and agree to it.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Julian asks: I noticed Britton has a weird option where the Yankees have to decide whether or not they want to pick up Britton's $14 million option for 2022 following the 2020 World Series and if they decline it Britton can opt out immediately and become a free agent this offseason. With everything going on do you believe the Yankees will pick up that option?

I wrote about Zack Britton's unusual contract in May and it's worth revisiting. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees have a two-year club option worth $27M. If they decline that option, Britton has a one-year player option worth $13M. If both options are declined, he becomes a free agent. This is how I'd rank the possible outcomes:

1. Yankees decline their option, Britton picks up his option.
2. Yankees pick up their option.
3. Both options are declined and Britton becomes a free agent.

I'd say the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is larger than the gap between No. 2 and No. 3. I'm just not sure there's going to be $13M a year available to free agent relievers following the shutdown. Britton would be the best free agent reliever on the market this winter -- Sean Doolittle, Ken Giles, Keone Kela, and Kirby Yates are all coming off injuries -- but even then, $13M seems rich.

Britton has been typical Britton this season, pitching to a 2.57 ERA (2.96 FIP) with a great 68.3% ground ball rate and so-so strikeout (20.0%) and walk (11.7%) rates. He turns 33 over the winter, so he's not young, but he's a Grade-A clubhouse guy and willing to pitch in any role. That has value. I don't know how you quantify it, but it is not something to be dismissed.

The Yankees love Britton and I don't want to think they want to lose him. I also don't think they want to commit $14M to him in 2022 after the shutdown and without knowing what everything will look like in 2021 (gate revenue, etc.). Even with over $50M in career earnings to date, I don't think Britton would pass up $13M guaranteed to test the market. If anything, he'd pick up the option and test free agency next year, when we're hopefully passed all this.

Possible fourth option: an extension. Could the Yankees and Britton rework the options into an extension? Turn one year, $13M and two years, $27M into, say, three years and $30M? That's probably as good or better than what Britton could expect on the open market, the Yankees would get a lower luxury tax hit, and they could back-load the deal to ease the upfront cash burden. Worth considering.

As things stand, I'll say the Yankees decline their option and Britton picks up his option. An extension might be more likely than the Yankees picking up their option or both sides declining their options, now that I think about. An extension would make sense for the team given their roster and financial needs, and it would make sense for Britton given the market.

Guy asks: Tanaka has been one of the few pleasures to watch these last few weeks. What has been key to his effectiveness so far this season? And what do you think it will take financially for the Yanks to keep him this offseason?  

Masahiro Tanaka came out throwing a ton of fastballs in his first start of the season and I thought maybe that was a new approach with new pitching coach Matt Blake. It has not lasted. Tanaka has been his usual self since that start, lulling hitters to sleep with splitters and sliders while using his fastball as a show-me pitch.

Tanaka has been the Yankees' best starter this season -- Gerrit Cole hasn't been bad but he hasn't dominated either, and the last three starts stunk -- pitching to a 3.38 ERA (3.94 FIP). He's allowed no more than two earned runs in six of his seven starts, though he was on a pitch limit early on following the line drive to the head, so there are some short outings in there.

It's cliche, but Tanaka is a pitcher, not a thrower. He deceives and outsmarts hitters in an era where so many pitchers rely on power. It's a fun change of pace and maybe there's even a "hangover" effect. Back in the day Michael Salfino found Mets pitchers who pitched the day after R.A. Dickey (against the same opponent) performed very well, possibly because "opposing hitters were left so off-balance, confused and out of sync" after seeing the knuckleball. Might have to dig into this at some point.

Anyway, I assume the Yankees would have interest in re-signing Tanaka this winter. They will certainly need the pitching and he's passed every "can he handle New York?" test thrown at him. Tanaka was not going to get another $22M a year even before the pandemic, though I thought $18M a year or so would have been reasonable. That's Dallas Keuchel money.

Now? That's probably too rich. Tanaka might be looking at closer to $14M a year after the pandemic. Maybe three years and $45M? Tack on a fourth year club option with a buyout that pushes the guarantee to $48M? I wish I could give better answers to these "what'll it cost?" questions. We're all in wait and see mode when it comes to free agency and future payrolls. 

John asks: Assuming that the Yankees don’t break out of this tailspin, is it all reasonable to think they could end up with a top 5 pick? 

It is mathematically possible for the Yankees to finish with the worst record in baseball. The thing is, if the Yankees lose out and finish at 22-38, the Red Sox and Diamondbacks would need to go at least 8-8 in their final 16 games to finish with a better record and bump the Yankees down into the 30th spot in the standings. Is it possible? Yeah, technically. It is likely? No. Not at all.

For argument's sake, let's say this recent 6-15 stretch is the Yankees' true talent level and they continue at that pace the rest of the year. They'd finish at 27-33. In that case, the five teams at the bottom of the standings would have to do this to finish with a better record than the Yankees:

30. Red Sox: 13-3
29: D'Backs: 13-3
28. Pirates: 14-5
27. Rangers: 13-5
26. Royals: 12-4

It's just not going to happen. Also, we still don't know how MLB will determine the 2021 draft order. Because each team will play fewer than 81 games, the March Agreement allows MLB to modify the draft order. My guess is they'll use combined 2019-20 records -- the Yankees currently hold the No. 27 overall pick in that case -- but we'll see.

MLB is presumably focused on the postseason and completing the World Series right now. The draft order just isn't the high priority at the moment, so we might not hear about a new format until the offseason. Unless it's a lottery and the Yankees get really lucky, I would be surprised if they wind up with a top five pick. It's so unlikely even with their recent play.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)