September 4th, 2020: Shakeup, Rays, Urshela, Andujar, Catchers, What We've Missed, Mailbag

Know what's weird? The regular season ends in three weeks and two days. It feels like it just started! Because it did just start, obviously. The Yankees have played 36 games and they only have 24 more games to go. I hope we never experience another season like this for many reasons. Let's get to today's thoughts.

1. Time for a shakeup. The Yankees have lost four games they led with no more than six outs remaining in the last nine days. They lost three such games all last season. They're bad at everything right now --  literally everything -- and after every game we hear some version of "we're playing poorly and it has to stop," yet nothing changes.

"I’m disappointed overall with the way we’ve played recently," Brett Gardner told Ken Davidoff following Wednesday's loss. "We’ve got to pick it up."

Well, it's time for change. The Yankees had an opportunity to change things at the trade deadline but instead sat on their hands, so now the only change can come from within. I have zero expectation of this happening, the Yankees don't really operate this way anymore, but if you're going to shake things up, doing it after a 4-10 stretch in a 60-game season is when you do it. This is what I want them to do.

Demote Happ, recall Schmidt

J.A. Happ has made five starts this season and the Yankees gave him early 5-0, 4-0, and 3-0 leads in three of them. He blew the 4-0 lead, blew the 3-0 lead, and turned the 5-0 lead into a 5-4 lead in two innings. Following yesterday's dud Happ is sitting on a 4.68 ERA (5.86 FIP) this year and a 4.88 ERA (5.31 FIP) since Opening Day 2019. No more starts for him.

If Happ has the gall to continue complaining about his vesting option publicly, let him. The demotion is warranted and he'll only make himself look like a selfish teammate. Happ has held lefties to a .225/.281/.374 (.281 wOBA) batting line since last season, so he could be useful in a short relief role, and that's where he should be. He can't start anymore.

Clarke Schmidt is the obvious candidate to replace Happ in the rotation. Conor Foley says Schmidt threw four innings and 62 pitches at the alternate site Sunday, so he's lined up perfectly to start a doubleheader game today. The Yankees gave Deivi Garcia a start last weekend and what happened? He was really good! Good things can happen when you give talented players a chance. It's time for Schmidt. Happ doesn't belong in the rotation.

Demote Wade, recall Mercer

When your entire shtick is "I run really fast" and you make two egregious baserunning mistakes in two days (this one and this one), you've earned a demotion. Tyler Wade doesn't provide enough offense to stick around after mistakes like that. There has to be accountability and demoting a guy who's been on the roster all year is a good way to send a message that everyone needs to wake up.

"The stolen base is in play, so he is working on that. But a situation where you have to be aware of exactly where everyone is especially with no outs," Boone told George King about Wade's baserunning mistake yesterday. "Obviously a mistake."

Because the Yankees will need a backup infielder following the demotion, Jordy Mercer is the obvious call-up candidate. Gleyber Torres could be back this weekend, so the Yankees could wait until then to make life (and the 40-man roster) easy, but demoting Wade kinda loses its effect if you don't send him down immediately after the costly mistakes. Mercer for a day or two would be a-okay with me. It's worth it.

Demote Ford, recall Andujar

I like Mike Ford. I do. But he's hitting .169/.265/.339 (64 wRC+) as a bat-only first baseman and that is untenable. You'd think that would have been an easy roster spot to upgrade at the trade deadline, but no dice. Mike Tauchman has been a zero at the plate for weeks now but at least he has utility as a defensive replacement. Ford is useless when he doesn't hit. Miguel Andujar is the obvious replacement and I'll have more on him in a bit.

I suppose the Yankees could also do something like remove Aroldis Chapman from the closer's role as he works to get into a rhythm -- "I feel like a player that has missed a lot of time and is grinding to get back to where I need to be," he told Bryan Hoch yesterday -- but I'm not sure that'll help. It's not like the rest of the bullpen has been nails. (Poor Albert Abreu. He is not MLB ready and his teammates forced him into an impossible situation yesterday.)

Demote Happ to the bullpen because he's been terrible, demote Wade to the alternate site because he's making costly mistakes, and demote Ford to the alternate site because he's not hitting. Replace them with Schmidt, Mercer (or Torres), and Andujar. It's not much, we're talking about the margins of the roster, but the Yankees look lifeless and a little shakeup is warranted. There are ways to improve this team from within and those moves should be made.

2. The Rays rivalry. Thank goodness the Yankees are done with the Rays this season. The season series had strong "Yankees vs. Blue Jays in the second half of 2015" vibes in that the Yankees were exposed as the inferior team every which way (offensively, defensively, pitching, overcoming injuries, etc.). A one-sided season series, it was.

New York's division title odds are down to 9.8%, per FanGraphs, and their focus has to be on holding off the Blue Jays for second place. They had their chance to get back into the division race and blew it out. Worry about those 10 head-to-head games with Toronto now. Anyway, I have some thoughts on the Rays season series and everything that transpired earlier this week, so let's get to it.

The "rivalry"

The Yankees vs. Rays rivalry is completely manufactured from one side. They have a rivalry because the Rays tell anyone who will listen they have a rivalry. All the complaints and sniping comes from one side. I get it, the Rays are the small market darling taking on the big bad Yankees, and hey, it worked. They motivated themselves and mopped the floor with the Yankees this year. Whatever it takes.

It's just really hard for me to get invested in this rivalry because the Rays don't keep players around long enough to actually hate them. Forget David Ortiz. He's a special case. But can you imagine hating a Ray as much as you hated, say, Jose Bautista? Can't be done. Are you going to hate Blake Snell even after he inevitably changes teams the same way your Justin Verlander hate persists? The answer is unequivocally no.

The Rays talked the talk about enjoying beating the Yankees and then they went out and did it. They backed it up. The Yankees folded when the Rays challenged them. This is a rivalry in the sense that they are the two best teams in the division and competing head-to-head. It doesn't feel like anything more than that to me. It does to the Rays and their fans, obviously, and I respect that. For me, the investment just isn't there right now.

Tanaka's purpose pitch

I know we all see Masahiro Tanaka as an "aw shucks he wouldn't hurt a fly" kinda guy, but there is a stone cold killer beneath the surface, and he 100% hit Joey Wendle on purpose Tuesday night. Wendle had to jump out of the way of the first pitch of the at-bat (video link) ... 

... and the second pitch was in his ribs (video). At 95.1 mph, it was not only the hardest pitch Tanaka threw all night, it was the hardest pitch he's thrown since last July. Look at the intent on that pitch. You can't convince me it wasn't intentional. If it was unintentional, Tanaka sure did a good job making it look intentional.

The Rays have been buzzing DJ LeMahieu up and in since last season and they did it again Monday night -- the YES Network had a good montage of all the times LeMahieu has had to duck out of the way -- and Tanaka is the leader and elder statesman of the pitching staff now that CC Sabathia is retired, and he protected his guy. He did it the "right" way, hitting Wendle in the ribs, but yes, it was intentional. A master control artist just so happened to let back-to-back fastballs slip on an otherwise very good night? Nah.

Chapman's suspension

I can't believe Aroldis Chapman received only a three-game suspension. MLB's press release notes Chapman had "previously been disciplined in his career for intentional throwing at the head area (in 2013)," yet he received only three games. Joe Kelly, another repeat offender, was suspended eight games (!) for throwing behind Alex Bregman earlier this year. What's the difference? Kelly making stupid faces?

Fair or not (fair, completely), it looks like MLB is protecting the Astros because they know they might be a target after the sign-stealing scandal. MLB has to do that, they can't let it be open season on a team, but wow is the difference in suspensions enormous despite very similar infractions. Chapman had to be suspended. Pitches over heads are too dangerous to let slide, and I can't believe he was suspended only three games.

Was the pitch intentional? Eh, I'm inclined to say yes even though it would have brought the tying run to the plate in an important game. Maybe Chapman didn't intentionally throw over Mike Brosseau's head. Maybe he was trying to put one in his ribs and missed his spot, but I can't say that with any certainty, and he really doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt. Throwing at heads is straight trash and should be met with harsh punishment, even if unintentional. I'm totally cool with MLB possibly over-punishing in these situations.

Chapman is appealing the suspension and of course he should. Every game it is reduced is one more game he is available (and $86,021.51 worth of salary in his pocket). Chapman seems to have a good argument to have it reduced too. Tuesday was only his fourth outing of the season and he's thrown more fastballs out of the zone (25) than in the zone (21) this year:

Maybe Chapman's suspension will be reduced to two games. We'll see. As for Aaron Boone, his one-game suspension was automatic. Whenever a pitcher is suspended for throwing over someone's head, his manager gets a game too. Dave Roberts got a game when Kelly threw behind Bregman. That's the way it is. That's why Boone was suspended.

Cash's suspension

How did Rays manager Kevin Cash only get a one-game suspension? This is even more absurd than Chapman getting three games. You've surely seen or heard bits and pieces but here is Cash's full quote following Tuesday's game, via Marc Topkin:

“It’s absolutely ridiculous,” Cash said. “It was mishandled by the Yankees. Certainly the pitcher on the mound. It was mishandled by the umpires. They hit Joey Wendle intentionally in the first inning. It was clear as day. Chapman comes in, he throws three different balls up and in. I get it — they don’t like being thrown up and in. But enough’s enough. We’re talking about a 100 mph fastball over a young man’s head. It makes no sense. 

“It’s poor judgment. Poor coaching. It’s just poor teaching, what they’re doing, and what they’re allowing to do. The chirping from the dugout.

“Somebody would have to tell me, go pull the numbers, who’s hit who more? (The Yankees have hit more Rays, 19-14, in the three seasons under manager Aaron Boone.) I can assure you, other than three years ago, there hasn’t been one pitch with intent from any of our guys, period. Somebody’s got to be accountable.

“And the last thing I’ll say on it is I’ve got a whole damn stable full of guys that throw 98 miles an hour. Period.”

Cash said two things that should -- should -- have gotten him in trouble. First, he admitted the Rays intentionally threw at an opposing player ("I can assure you, other than three years ago, there hasn’t been one pitch with intent from any of our guys, period."). I assume he's talking about the Andrew Kittredge pitch behind Austin Romine that led to the "That's for you, bitch" moment in 2018, but who knows.

And second, Cash threatened (not subtly either) to intentionally hit an opposing player ("And the last thing I’ll say on it is I’ve got a whole damn stable full of guys that throw 98 miles an hour. Period.") The threat alone should warrant a significant ban. Ken Davidoff called for a seven-game suspension because "the reality (is) that managers are and should be held to a higher standard than players." Instead, one game. What a joke.

Chris Young, the former pitcher (not the former outfielder), replaced Joe Torre as MLB's chief disciplinarian this past February and holy cats, his suspensions have been illogical and inconsistent. Three games for Chapman when Kelly got eight? One game -- one game! -- for Cash after threatening to hit opposing players? Amateur hour.

3. An improved Urshela. Gio Urshela's surface numbers are not quite where they were last season -- he's hitting .272/.358/.515 after .314/.355/.534 last year -- but I think he's been better this year. He's had some crummy luck (like this and this), resulting in a .278 BABIP that is far below what I'd expect given his contact quality:

Statcast defines a "barrel" as a batted ball "whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage," so it's basically the best possible contact. Urshela's average exit velocity, expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA are all top 17% in MLB. He's a loud contact machine.

There are two key differences between 2019 Gio and 2020 Gio. One, he's getting the ball in the air much more often. Last season Urshela had a 41.2% ground ball rate, which is lower than I would've guessed. This year it's down to 31.8%. Hard contact in the air is a very good thing. Gio has six homers in 120 plate appearances. He hit his sixth homer in his 213th plate appearance in 2019 (with the rocket ball).

And two, the plate discipline. Last season Urshela had a 39.5% chase rate, ninth highest among the 169 hitters to bat at least 450 times. This year he's cut it to 31.1%, which is much closer to the 26.9% league average. As a result, Gio has more than doubled his walk rate (5.3% to 11.7%) and cut his strikeout rate (18.3% to 16.7%) and swing-and-miss rate (11.5% to 8.8%). This graph is the good stuff:

Urshela is a more dangerous hitter now than he was last season because he's tightened up his plate discipline and because he's getting the ball in the air more often, and he's done it without sacrificing hard contact. The surface stats are not quite as good as last year, but don't be mistaken. This is the best version of Gio we've seen yet. He's become a legitimate top tier hitter on a contending team. Adrian Beltre 2.0 and I'm only half-joking.

4. Andujar's lost season. This has become another lost season for Miguel Andujar. He lost just about all last season to the shoulder surgery and then had to sit through the shutdown earlier this year, and lately he's been yo-yoed back and forth between the big leagues and the alternate site. His season to date:

• Aug. 6th: Optioned to Scranton after 14 plate appearances in 14 days.
• Aug. 16th: Recalled from Scranton.
• Aug. 20th: Optioned to Scranton.
• Aug. 25th: Recalled from Scranton.
• Aug. 29th: Optioned to Scranton.

Andujar remained with the Yankees on the taxi squad after being sent down Aug. 6th, so he didn't even report to Scranton right away. He received 18 plate appearances in the 13 days between the Aug. 16th recall and the Aug. 29th demotion, and only twice in those 13 days did he start consecutive games. The guy has 32 big league plate appearances in the last 15 months or so and basically zero minor league at-bats. That's not good.

I was totally cool with Andujar being sent down on Aug. 6th. He had nowhere to play and he needed to face live pitching consistently, not sit on the bench. That hasn't happened. He's gone up and down because of all the injuries, injuries that have created openings (plural) in the lineup. At-bats are going to Mike Ford (64 wRC+), Brett Gardner (81 wRC+), and Mike Tauchman (76 wRC+), who have limited futures with the Yankees and aren't helping in the present.

Maybe Andujar doesn't have a future with the Yankees either. Gio Urshela is showing last year was no fluke and Luke Voit and Giancarlo Stanton are entrenched at first base and DH, respectively. That doesn't leave much room for Andujar, unless the Yankees stick with the outfield experiment. Can he help in the present though? Give him regular at-bats and see whether the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up is still in there? Could be cool.

The Yankees do not seem inclined to find out and I suppose the good news is Andujar has not had to be recalled since his last demotion last weekend. Maybe now he can finally settle in, play intrasquad games every day, and get into a rhythm. Given the depleted lineup, I wish the Yankees would just put Andujar at DH. The playing time that wasn't there when he was first demoted is there now. Give talented players a chance. They might surprise you.

(I can't believe I have to practically beg a Yankees team that has averaged 3.64 runs in its last 14 games to put a guy who two years ago hit .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits as a 23-year-old in the lineup.)

5. Three catchers. I like Erik Kratz. He's easy to root for and he's a good third catcher option. Three catchers is overkill though. With the offense struggling as much as it has the last two weeks, there has to be a better way to use that roster spot. If the Yankees insist on keeping Mike Ford, I'd dump Kratz and call up Miguel Andujar, and put him in the lineup every single day, but that's just me.

Because this is a full service blog, I'm going to play devil's advocate and make the case for keeping three catchers. First and foremost, three catchers allows Gary Sanchez to DH regularly, which improves the defense because it sure looks like Sanchez has taken his offensive struggles out to the field. His defense started out nicely this season but has cratered lately.

More importantly though, giving Sanchez the lion's share of the DH at-bats allows him to focus on his offense without having to worry about defense. He's been abysmal this season -- .130/.245/.337 (59 wRC+)! -- and he's still learning this new one-knee catching stance. Maybe it's time to hit pause on that and let him focus on offense exclusively for a bit. Carrying three catchers makes that easy to do.

"With (Higashioka) back and the luxury of having three catchers on the roster, we can be aggressive," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin earlier this week. "While we have guys down, we can use the DH spot to get Gary off his feet a couple times a week.” 

Secondly, Kratz seems to be Deivi Garcia's personal catcher. He caught him with Triple-A Scranton last season and throughout Summer Camp. They have a figurative father-son relationship. Garcia is very talented, but he's also a recently turned 21-year-old kid getting his first taste of the big leagues while trying to navigate a very unusual season. Anything that helps him feel comfortable is a plus, and in this case, that's Kratz behind the plate.

And third ... I don't have a third point. I guess it's easier to pinch-run for your catcher? That's a small benefit. Sanchez gets to DH, which improves the defense and might get his bat going, and Garcia gets to throw to Kratz. That's really all there is. Kyle Higashioka is 10 years younger than Kratz, so whenever the Yankees decide to go with two catchers, obviously Higashioka stays. Right now, three catchers it is, and the 28-man roster makes it easy to pull off. 

"It’s pretty much the same mindset that I’ve had my entire career. You never know what’s gonna happen. You never know what the next thing is gonna be. You never know what it is," Kratz told Kristie Ackert last weekend. "... Once they started ramping things up, then you wonder are you going to get a call? I was fortunate to get a call and come back and be able to work out during Summer Camp and also the alternate site to stay running."

6. What we've missed: August. We are in the stretch run of the 60-game season and, in an alternate universe somewhere, the Yankees are roughly 140 games into their season and fighting for an AL East title. Here's what we missed in March, April, May, June, and July, and now here's what we missed in August. Wasn't a great month for "stuff we missed" scenarios.

Old Timers' Day

Old Timers' Day was going to be unusually late this year. It was scheduled for Sunday, Aug. 9th, prior to the series finale against the Athletics. I wonder if A's manager Bob Melvin would have been part of the ceremony? He played nine games with the Yankees in 1994 and the team tends to mention any uniformed personnel with Yankees ties on the opposing team.

Anyway, Old Timers' Day typically takes place in late June. This year it would've been early August for whatever reason. CC Sabathia and (34-year-old) Phil Hughes were among those invited for the first time, though I'm pretty sure both declined before the pandemic. Little too young to consider themselves Old Timers, I guess.

Old Timers' Day is best experienced in person rather on television, though it makes for a very long day at the ballpark. A fun day, for sure, but also a long day. The annual event was canceled this season for obvious reasons. I hope it can safety return next season with fans in the stands to enjoy the ceremony.

Field of Dreams Game

I enjoy baseball in new and different places, particularly when it breaks up the monotony of the dog days of summer. Last year's London Series was a blast. This year the Yankees were scheduled to play the Field of Dreams Game against the White Sox on Thursday, Aug. 13th. The temporary stadium is at the site where the movie was filmed.

Despite the pandemic, MLB built the 8,000-seat ballpark anyway, so I guess it's just sitting there now. Here's a time lapse video of construction and here's a rendering of the park:

Because of regional play, it was announced the Cardinals would replace the Yankees in the Field of Dreams Game on July 1st. MLB banged the game entirely on Aug. 3rd and said they will play it in 2021. No word who the White Sox will play yet, but I hope its the Yankees. I enjoy baseball in unusual places and the Yankees playing in an Iowa cornfield certainly qualifies as unusual. (I'm looking forward to the Yankees playing in Buffalo next week.)

7. Rapid fire thoughts. Jordy Mercer accepted his outright assignment to the alternate site yesterday, the Yankees announced. He was designated for assignment over the weekend. That's good. Mercer is nothing special but the Yankees are extremely thin on the middle infield and he's as good a backup (backup) shortstop as the Yankees will find at this point. The Yankees now have one open 40-man roster spot (paging Clarke Schmidt) and one open 60-man player pool spot ... Good news: Josh Norris (subs. req'd) reports MLB has given clubs the green light to host Instructional League later this month, including games against other teams. Players must be paid their regular season salary and MLB must approve each club's COVID-19 health and safety plan. No word on the Arizona Fall League (or a sister league in Florida) yet, but this is good news. Instructs rosters are typically 30-ish players and non-40-man roster guys only (exceptions can be granted), so at least those players will now get to spend some time working with coaches and playing in actual games. I'm hopeful MLB will come up with a Fall League plan next. Seems doable ... According to J.J. Cooper, MLB is discussing a single elimination tournament in which the 30 MLB teams and all 120 minor league teams (120 after contraction, that is) compete for what they're calling the Baseball Cup. This strikes me as a very "they do this in soccer and the youths like it" idea from MLB's brain trust. The logistical hurdles are enormous -- they want to do this during the regular season -- and, with all due respect, they are severely overrating the quality of minor league players. Single-A kids against big leaguers would be a baseball bloodbath. If they're going to attempt this, they'd be better off with minor league all-star teams (or all-prospect teams). Then they might have a chance. Would I watch? Absolutely. It only takes one Cinderella story to make it fun. It's just hard to see this getting off the ground in the proposed format ... And finally, Cooper and Carlos Collazo (subs. req'd) report the 2021 draft will he held during the All-Star break rather than early June as usual. It allows MLB to hold (televised?) pre-draft events (tournaments, a combine, etc.) and better market the draft. Also, college coaches will love this. Previously the draft fell right in the middle of the college postseason. The minor league contraction plan is expected to eliminate the short season leagues, and since those rosters no longer have to be filled, MLB is free to push the draft back. The MLB draft will never be a thing like the NBA or NFL (or even NHL) draft because fans won't see their team's top draftees for years, but I applaud MLB for trying. Pushing the draft back one month is fine. It's fine.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Ray asks: Has Gary Sanchez changed his two-strike approach at the plate? I noticed against TB that when he got two strikes he went to a semi-Gleyber approach of only lifting his front foot minimally (and he crushed the ball. With his high leg kick he’s not getting his front foot down fast enough and his hands lag so he’s behind the ball).

Sanchez is having a disastrous least valuable player in baseball type of season -- his 59 wRC+ ranks 188th among the 197 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances -- and he's a mechanical mess at the plate. He is flying open with his hips and jumping at everything. The same thing happens every time Gary slumps, but this year it is extreme and prolonged.

I didn't notice Sanchez reducing his leg kick with two strikes until this question was sent in and, after watching video, I can tell you he does not do it all the time. Here are two separate two-strike swings from Wednesday's game (GIF link):

The leg kick adjustment may be situational. Sanchez used the smaller leg kick with men on base, when the top priority was putting the ball in play (or at least staying alive to continue the at-bat). The regular leg kick came with the bases empty. He took a big ol' hack and tried to run into a pitch in a lower leverage situation.

Sanchez's chase rate is a career low 30.4% this year, if you can believe that. It was 32.8% last year and it's 32.3% for his career. Even in two-strike counts, he has a 30.8% chase rate, down from 48.8% (!) last year and below the 38.5% league average in two-strike counts. Gary has always been a bit of a hacker but he's not chasing any more than usual this year.

The single biggest issue is Sanchez's inability to hit pitches out over the plate. His average exit velocity (91.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (49.0%) remain elite, but he's hitting too many pop-ups (13.7%). His .133 BABIP is insanely low and there is some bad luck in there. By and large though, Gary's batted balls are predictable and easy to defend.

Here, just to really drive home the point, is Sanchez's exit velocity in the different areas of the strike zone (why did Baseball Savant get rid of so many bells and whistles this year? I'd rather show you xwOBA than exit velocity, blah):

Oy vey. Middle-down is Sanchez's wheelhouse but you wouldn't know it based on this year. I don't think Gary's struggles are tied to his approach, at least not entirely. His swing is out of whack and he's not getting himself in a good hitting position consistently. Every once in a while Sanchez will remind us what he can do (this ruled), but we don't see it often enough. 

There's basically nothing Gary can do at this point to salvage his season. A three-week hot streak might -- might -- get his numbers to league average-ish by the end of the year. Realistically, the best we can hope for is Sanchez finding it in time for the postseason.

Seamus asks: How could you see the Yankees use their pitching during the stretch run and playoffs? If Paxton is able to come back, they probably won’t have time to stretch him out. Could pitchers like Paxton, Garcia, Loaisiga, follow our starters and help bridge the gap to Green, Britton, and Chapman? They could potentially be great weapons out of the pen that could throw multiple innings. Of course this is assuming the injured players come back and everyone else stays healthy. 

It is amazing-slash-awful the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole and will go into the postseason with less pitching than last year because Tommy Kahnle, James Paxton, and Luis Severino are all hurt. Paxton played catch for the first time yesterday, so maybe he comes back and has enough time to get stretched out to three innings. Anything more than that is gravy.

The Yankees have 2.5 starters -- I'm counting Jordan Montgomery and Masahiro Tanaka as 0.75 starters each because the Yankees rarely let them go through the lineup a third time (I kid, but not really) -- and about five guys who can get you through a lineup one time. I think you break down the postseason pitching staff like this:

• Full starter: Gerrit Cole
• Two times through lineup: Jordan Montgomery, Masahiro Tanaka
• One time through lineup: Jonathan Loaisiga, James Paxton?
• TBD: Deivi Garcia, J.A. Happ, Clarke Schmidt?

It's not great. The Yankees really need Garcia to be for real -- for real right away, not two or three years down the line -- and they need Paxton to come back healthy and productive. It would be wise to bring Schmidt up sooner rather than later to see what he can do, but at this point, it might be too late. Only three weeks (four starts?) left in the season.

Ideally, Cole hands the ball directly to the high-leverage relievers in Game 1, then the Yankees could pair Tanaka and Montgomery with one of those one time through the order relievers in Games 2 and 3. What happens in Game 4? Beats me. See how Games 1-3 play out first. With three weeks to go in the regular season, that's what the postseason pitching situation looks like. Fingers crossed Paxton comes back strong.

Chris asks: You’ve said for years that it’s extremely difficult to evaluate a Pitching Coach, but I’m going to ask anyway - what are your initial thoughts on Matt Blake? The back of the bullpen has been solid, but the middle-innings guys and starters not named Cole have all underwhelmed. What do you think?

I have no idea how we're supposed to evaluate anything this season (players, teams, etc.) and that goes double for a rookie pitching coach. Blake did not even have a full Spring Training with his new pitching staff, then there was the weirdness of the shutdown and the rushed Summer Camp. This season has been anything but normal.

A veteran pitching coach with known past trends (i.e. Ray Searage and his two-seamers) would be easier to evaluate in this weird year. Right now, the only tangible adjustment we can attribute to Blake is Chad Green's new curveball (Green said it was Blake's idea). Maybe Blake suggested Deivi Garcia move to the first base side of the rubber? Dunno.

For what it's worth, here's what Aaron Boone recently told Dan Martin about Blake:

“Everything I’ve seen makes me think he’s gonna be really good at this,’’ Boone said. “I think he gets tagged with the analytical new-age stuff, but there’s a lot of old-school in him, too, with how he looks at things and approaches things.

“He’s done a really good job getting thrown into this environment for his first Major League coaching job with the New York Yankees, and now you throw in this year and the pandemic. It’s a lot to throw at someone doing this for the first time. What’s stood out to me is how even-keeled and unaffected he is by the roller coaster that’s inevitable this year.”

I am a coach agnostic. They're obviously important and it's silly to pretend they don't have a real impact on players, but there's no way to isolate the coach's performance from the player's performance, and know who is responsible for what. The lionization of pitching coaches in recent years (i.e. Searage, Don Cooper, etc.) was too much for me.

It's silly to pretend coaches don't have an impact and it's equally silly to pretend we know what that impact is when so much of their work happens behind the scenes. In the end, it's still up to the player to make it all work. Blake seems fine. The pitchers like him and that's about all I need to hear. Trying to evaluate him (or anyone, really) on this unusual season is unfair. Nothing about this season is close to normal.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)