August 27th, 2020: Judge, Offense, Trade Deadline, Happ, Brantly, Garcia, Mailbag

How's everyone doing? I hope you're all well. The Yankees are mired in a 13.5-game losing streak but I dunno, feels kinda insignificant right now. Since they have yet another off-day today, here are Friday morning's thoughts Thursday night. Thanks as always as the support. (Enough people asked for them, so you get paragraph breaks now.)

1. Judge's setback. Five innings. Aaron Judge hurt his calf, lobbied to stay off the injured list, got four extra days off his feet because of the Mets shutdown and Tuesday's rainout, and still made it only five innings before reinjuring the calf. 

"It doesn’t seem to be overly serious," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin after Judge exited last night's game, "but it was enough that we needed to get him out of there."

Forgive me for not being reassured. The Yankees are atrocious with their injury messaging and have long lost the benefit of the doubt. I'll believe it's not "overly serious" when Judge is back on the field in short order, which I'm not counting on. Calf injuries are delicate and easy to aggravate, and I expect the recovery to require weeks, not days. Hopefully he can be ready for the postseason. That has to be the priority now. 

The offense has been dormant since the injuries started piling up -- the Yankees have scored 22 runs in their last seven games, during which they've hit .200/.288/.395 as a team -- because all their good hitters are getting hurt. The offense right now is Luke Voit (literally the best hitter in baseball), occasionally Gio Urshela, and a bunch of underperformers. The upcoming doubleheaders will make it tough to run the best possible lineup out there day after day until reinforcements arrive, but that's what needs to happen. 

This, by the way, is the best possible lineup given the current personnel in my opinion:

1. CF Aaron Hicks
2. 1B Luke Voit
3. 2B Gio Urshela
4. RF Clint Frazier
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. LF Mike Tauchman
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. DH Mike Ford
9. SS Tyler Wade/Thairo Estrada

Feel free to put 6-7-8 in any order. Brett Gardner (80 wRC+) is not hitting and doesn't appear particularly close to snapping out of it. He can replace Frazier for defense in the late innings but probably needs to see less playing time a la late 2018. Ford (53 wRC+) isn't hitting (or even walking) but I think it's more likely his bat comes around than Gardner's. At the very least, Ford will put a mistake in the seats. 

Point is, the Yankees have to get their best and most talented players in the lineup as often as possible (i.e. stop platooning Frazier and Andujar) to snap out of this offensive funk, though it won't be easy with the doubleheaders. Still, it has to be done. 

Oh, and who's replacing Judge on the roster should he return to the injured list? The only 40-man roster position player at the alternate site is Estevan Florial. Will the Yankees replace Judge with yet another reliever -- the Yankees have an 11-man bullpen at the moment -- and roll with a three-man bench? I suppose it's possible with five games in three days this weekend, but my goodness, talk about crummy roster construction. Even with all the injuries, it's bad. Make a 40-man roster move (I guess so long Ben Heller, who never pitches anyway) and get another bat on the roster. Rosell Herrera makes the most sense given his versatility. Either him or I guess Jordy Mercer. 

DJ LeMahieu might return soon -- he's due to take live at-bats in Scranton this weekend -- but Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton are still weeks away, and who knows with Judge at this point. The barrage of injuries on top of *gestures at everything else* is exhausting and it doesn't help that pretty much every move Boone makes these days backfires. I was totally cool with bringing in Chad Green last night -- against the top of the lineup in a one-run game, give me a fresh Green over Masahiro Tanaka going through the lineup a third time -- but it just did not work. 

The Yankees have a very Murphy's Law vibe right now. Everything that can go wrong is going wrong, whether it's sitting out entire weekends because other teams have positive COVID-19 tests or the bullpen blowing leads or important players getting hurt every single game. Now Judge has reinjured his calf after five innings. Last year the "next man up" thing was fun. This year it's aggravating. No more of this, please.

2. Trade deadline thoughts. The trade deadline is 4pm ET next Monday, so this is my last (scheduled) chance to squeeze in some deadline thoughts. In no particular order: One, the Yankees need to bring in another bat. Pitching remains the top priority but the injuries should push them into the position player market too. Brock Holt was released earlier today and is available for the prorated league minimum and my gosh, how thoroughly unexciting. He's better than their current utility infielder (i.e. no one) but that's not saying much. I want the Yankees to get the better version of Holt: Tommy La Stella. Lefty bat, can play the three non-shortstop infield positions, hitting .273/.371/.475 (134 wRC+) with four homers and way more walks (15) than strikeouts (7) this year. The Angels stink and La Stella is an impending free agent, so he's going to get traded. He's an obvious fit and a considerable upgrade not only in the short-term, but also over Mike Ford once everyone gets healthy. 

Two, the best available starting pitcher is Lance Lynn and it's not close. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) says the Rangers, who have lost 10 of their last 11 games to bomb out of the postseason race, are "entertaining" offers for Lynn, which is about as useless as trade rumors get. Rangers GM Jon Daniels wouldn't be doing his job if he wasn't at least "entertaining" offers for every player on his roster. Lynn has been lights out since joining Texas (3.30 ERA and 3.17 FIP) and he's owed a more than reasonable $8M next season ($10M luxury tax hit), so he's not a rental. The Yankees know Lynn firsthand a bit, which can't hurt. He might be the only true difference-maker on the market this deadline and given the team's position and contention window, I'm not against paying big to get him. Doesn't mean I'd meet any asking price, of course, but Lynn is the only realistically available starter I'd consider putting Deivi Garcia on the table to acquire. This version of Lynn is a worthy No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole and you'd get him for two postseason runs. 

Three, the starting pitching trade market beyond Lynn is really weak. The Blue Jays added Taijuan Walker earlier today and my initial reaction was "wow, big name off the market." Andy Martino reports the Yankees have talked to the Giants about Kevin Gausman and I like Gausman, and the Giants have him running a career best strikeout rate (31.6%) thanks to a pitch mix tweak, but if he's the best that shakes loose prior to Monday, the Yankees are in trouble. They need someone better than that with 2019 James Paxton not coming back. With Minor Minor and Robbie Ray cratering, Gausman is probably the best rental on the market at this point, and yikes. A one stop shop package trade with the Angels (Dylan Bundy plus La Stella or even Andrelton Simmons?) seems like the best possible outcome, realistically. I'm rooting for a surprise trade because most of what's out there is unappealing. 

Four, Pirates righty Nick Mears is my new favorite under-the-radar bullpen target. He hasn't been good this year (3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 7 BB, 4 K) but he is essentially jumping from High-A to the big leagues, so I chalk that up to inexperience. The stuff is electric (and he's easy to root for). Mears sits mid-to-upper-90s with big spin on his fastball and it's a David Robertson curveball (video link):

The Yankees need a reliever(s) who can help them win now and I'm not sure Mears can do that. He has five career innings at Double-A and zero at Triple-A, so, realistically, he needs to spend some time in Triple-A before he's ready to have an impact. That's not really a guy the Yankees can bring in to boost their 2020 chances. I like Mears though and can see a smart team (Astros, Dodgers, Rays, etc.) pouncing on him as the next big thing. I hope that team is the Yankees. 

Five, the Blue Jays currently sit in the No. 8 postseason spot and they added Walker today, which leads me to believe they'll keep Ken Giles. So much for my "give the Blue Jays something for an injured rental and see what happens" idea. The Yankees could try that with Keone Kela though. The Pirates closer exited last Friday's game with a forearm issue and is an impending free agent. They definitely aren't going to the postseason and might consider unloading the $700,000 or so they still owe Kela enough of a trade return. 

Sean Doolittle is another possibility. The Nationals are in last place and Doolittle, another free agent to be, just returned from a knee problem. I expect the bullpen market to be competitive leading up to Monday, so I'm just looking for less costly yet potentially impactful additions. Kela and Doolittle are compromised but also really good when healthy. At the right price (i.e. dirt cheap) they'd be worthwhile additions. The Yankees have 98.1% postseason odds according to FanGraphs. They're not looking for relievers to help them get through the regular season. They're looking for guys to get high-leverage outs in October. 

Six, my ideal trade deadline: La Stella plus a Lynn/Jonathan Hernandez package deal. Hernandez, a 24-year-old righty reliever, has a 2.08 ERA (1.83 FIP) with a 32.8% strikeout rate and a power bat-missing arsenal (here's video). He's also under team control through 2025. Get La Stella for a player to be named later and Lynn/Hernandez for a package built around Garcia (decent chance Garcia's ceiling is what Hernandez is now). 

Seven and finally, my official deadline prediction: the Yankees get Gausman for a player to be named later and sign Holt. The player to be named later will be a top 30 prospect not at the alternate site, so I'll say ... Yoendrys Gomez. The Yankees get someone with bullpen experience and a little upside to help the rotation as well as a new bench guy. I hope for something(s) more impactful but am not optimistic given the market.

3. Happ not Happ-y. J.A. Happ will take the mound for the first time in 13 days when he makes his scheduled start Saturday. Obviously the Mets series being postponed explains part of that, but Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jordan Montgomery all will have made two starts between Happ's last start and his next start. The Yankees have played 27 games, nearly half their 60-game season, and Happ has started three times. He doesn't sound particularly happy about it either. From Dan Martin:

“You guys [in the media] are pretty smart. It doesn’t take too much to figure out, sort of, what could be going on.”

...

When asked if the situation presented a distraction for him, Happ said, “It’s hard to quantify an answer for that. It weighs on me to some extent, but when I come in here, I try to continue be a good teammate and prepare to be ready and be professional and that stuff. But when I’m away [from the park], it certainly can creep in and has taken a lot of thought. … At this point, I need to leave that on the back burner and let that play out how it might.” 

Happ's "it doesn't take too much to figure out ... what could be going on" comment very obviously refers to the vesting option situation, which is still unresolved as far as we know. Prorated to the 60-game season, Happ will lock in a $17M salary next year with 10 starts or 61.1 innings this year, though he falls into a special subset of players (for whatever reason) whose vesting terms can be determined via arbitration. 

Happ won't get to 10 starts or 61.1 innings at this point. Starting every fifth day from here on out gets him to nine starts for the season, and he'd need to average 8.1 innings per start in his final six starts to reach 61.1 innings (he hasn't thrown 8.1 innings in a start since he was a Blue Jay). For all intents and purposes, the Yankees have already avoided Happ's vesting option, at least based on the prorated criteria (who knows what their eventual agreement or an arbiter says). 

Prior to his comments earlier this week, Happ had been a total pro as a Yankee, and I don't think anyone blames his poor performance on a lack of effort. He is starting to be vocal about the vesting option, however, and while I understand the frustration, this would not be an issue if he weren't getting knocked around the park every time he takes the mound. Nine runs, 10 walks, and only six strikeouts in 12.2 innings this year. Since Opening Day last year he has a 5.02 ERA (5.47 FIP) in 174 innings. He's 65th in innings and 167th in WAR during that time. 

The Yankees may be (likely are) skipping Happ's starts because they don't want the option to vest, and that sucks for him, but there are perfectly valid baseball reasons to skip his starts as well. He has not pitched well at all, and in this unique 60-game season, every game carries that much more importance. Of course a contending team is going to lean on their top starters as much as possible, and the Yankees being bystanders in multiple COVID-19 outbreaks has made it easy to skip Happ. 

I'm as pro-player as it gets and even I think there has to be more self-awareness here. Baseball players always think they're one game or one start away from turning things around, but geez, Happ has made this really easy for the Yankees. He didn't have to pitch great to avoid this. Even league average performance wouldn't make it difficult to justify skipping his starts, but Happ couldn't manage that. He keeps getting skipped because he's pitching poorly and has pitched poorly for a while. Don't like it? Pitch better. 

"I know I’m healthy and have been healthy and ready to pitch since what would have been the regular season (in March) and since Summer Camp and the start of the abbreviated season," Happ told Martin. "I’ve been ready to go in all those cases with no issues."

4. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees made a minor trade earlier this week, acquiring catcher Rob Brantly from the Giants for cash. He's been assigned to the alternate site. We never quite know when the Yankees just picked up the next Gio Urshela or Luke Voit, but there doesn't seem to be much more to this than adding depth at the hardest to fill position. Chris Iannetta retired, Kyle Higashioka is injured, and when Higashioka returns Erik Kratz will be designated for assignment. Brantly, 31, gives the Yankees another depth catcher with MLB experience. He made San Francisco's Opening Day roster this year and is a .228/.292/.330 (71 wRC+) hitter with okay-ish framing numbers in 128 career games spread across six big league seasons ... The Yankees and Mets will play five games in three days this weekend and Aaron Boone kinda sorta hinted at Deivi Garcia and/or Clarke Schmidt being a factor at some point in the series. "They’re guys that we’re definitely starting to have conversations that potentially could come into play in some way, shape, or form on the weekend. They will be built up and in line to be an option for us this weekend," Boone told Ken Davidoff earlier this week. Bryan Hoch says Boone was also quick to note Schmidt not being on the 40-man roster complicates things (for what it's worth, Conor Foley says Schmidt threw a 14-pitch inning in Scranton today, which sure sounds like a side session to prepare him in case he's needed Sunday). Garcia is on the 40-man roster though. In fact, the Yankees only have four 40-man roster pitchers at the alternate site right now: Garcia, Albert Abreu, Luis Gil, and Luis Medina. Gil and Medina are so young and inexperienced that it's hard to believe they'd see MLB time in anything other than an extreme emergency this year. That leaves Abreu and Garcia as easy call-up candidates, so I guess Garcia's chances are 50/50? I hope we get to see him, even if only for an inning or two as the 29th man during a doubleheader.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Chris asks: Why aren’t we talking more about Trevor Bauer as a potential deadline acquisition? And what would it cost? To me, acquiring him solves a lot of problems - it gives us a really solid 1-4 starters for the postseason and would solve our “no lefty who can get out righties” problem if/when Paxton and Happ have to be moved to the bullpen.

Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) says Bauer is not available and I buy that even though the Reds are 11-17. They're only 2.5 games out of a postseason spot and I don't think they spent all that money (Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, etc.) to not try to make a run. They could be a real headache in a short postseason series with Bauer, Luis Castillo, and Sonny Gray.

Bauer has been the best pitcher in the National League this season, pitching to a 1.65 ERA (2.76 FIP) with 39.8% strikeouts and 7.3% walks in 32.2 innings. The stuff has always been great -- Bauer's spin rates have skyrocketed this year -- though he's been inconsistent as hell throughout his career. A friend likes to call him "A.J. Burnett with better branding."

Last summer I heard the Yankees were completely out on Bauer for makeup reasons. That might not be the case now -- they may be willing to hold their nose for a few weeks -- but it is worth mentioning. On the field, he's an obvious fit. He's capable of dominance, he's very durable, and even the inconsistent version of Bauer is a considerable rotation upgrade.

What would it cost? Hard to say in this weird season. Bauer's pitching well enough that the Reds can plausibly say "we want something more valuable than a first round pick, otherwise we'll just make him the qualifying offer," and that's a big price to pay for at most two months of even a great pitcher. Deivi Garcia for Bauer? Not unreasonable under the circumstances.

Pitching coach Matt Blake spent all those years with Bauer in Cleveland and perhaps that extra insight pushes the Yankees to make a trade -- Blake wasn't on staff when they made Bauer persona non grata for makeup reasons last deadline -- though I suspect it's not even going to matter. I expect the Reds to keep him and make a postseason push.

Bill asks: With DJLM & Gleyber out, I'm with you on the "move Gio to 2B and thank me later" issue. How about a deal for Kyle Seager? Yes, big contract, player-renewable for 2022. But having a fine year, swing tailor-made for YS, plus glove, and a fine teammate. He'd be useful for the life of his contract, could learn 1B and spell Luke vs. some righties.

Seager has rebounded very nicely from down 2017-18 seasons and a Spring Training 2019 hand injury that required surgery. He posted a 110 wRC+ with 23 homers in 106 games last season and is currently sitting on a .290/.370/.505 (137 wRC+) batting line with five homers this year. He's always rated well defensively and has long been regarded as an A+ clubhouse guy.

Seager's contract is a big issue. He's owed $18.5M next year and, if traded, his $15M club option for 2022 turns into a player option. That's a poison pill. No team is taking on that money and giving up quality prospects. The Mariners will almost certainly have to eat a bunch of money to facilitate a trade, perhaps even paying the 2022 option entirely.

I like the fit. Seager would give the Yankees a low strikeout lefty bat with pop, and an option at the corner infield spots (he's never played first base but I suspect he'd handle it fine). I like Mike Ford, but Seager's the better and more utile player. I don't know how you solve the contract issue. On the field, I like the fit, especially with Miguel Andujar being marginalized.

Alex asks: Jon Gray's name has been tossed around as a Yankee target in the past. He is having a terrible season and his strikeouts are noticeably down. The Rockies are below .500 and may be running out of patience with him, especially as he nears free agency after next season. Would the Yankees still be interested? What's a reasonable buy-low price?

Death, taxes, the Rockies started well and crashing late. Happens every season. Colorado went 11-3 in their first 14 games and they are 5-12 in 17 games since, and they're barely hanging on to a postseason spot. How do they do this every year? It's remarkable.

As for Gray, wow, I knew he was having a poor season but I didn't realize it was this poor. He has a 5.45 ERA (4.51 FIP) in 36.1 innings and the underlying numbers are extremely bad:

Gray's fastball is averaging only 93.9 mph this year, down from 96.0 mph last year. His fastest fastball this year was 95.9 mph, so he's yet to throw a pitch as hard as last year's average fastball (barely). He's pulling a James Paxton.

In a normal season, I'd wonder whether Gray is hurt given how much his performance has cratered. This year, it could be tied to the shutdown and general Rockies-ness. Lots of guys are missing velocity this year. Not many are performing as poorly as Gray though.

The Yankees drafted Gray once upon a time (10th round in 2011) and they've been loosely connected to him over the years, mostly in "they need pitching and he could be available" ways. The Yankees have had a thing for ex-Rockies the last few years, so he fits that way.

This season, Gray has pitched so poorly that I think the Yankees have to look elsewhere for rotation help. I'm not against adding someone who needs to be fixed but geez, Gray looks like he needs an overhaul, not a few tweaks. Hard to count on him making a difference.

Gray will be a free agent after next season. Based on what I know right now, I'd be cool with pursuing him over the winter as a one-year rental. Give him a full Spring Training with pitching coach Matt Blake & Co. and see what happens. At the trade deadline though? I gotta pass at this point.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)