August 21st, 2020: Rays, Britton, Torres, Paxton, Subway Series, Voit, LeMahieu, Mercer, Mailbag

The trade deadline is 10 days away and it is extremely weird there have been no rumors at all. I don't just mean the Yankees either. It's quiet with all 30 teams. MLB Trade Rumors has become MLB Injury Update. I hope the action picks up over the next 10 days -- rumors are fun! -- but I really have no idea what to expect. Maybe everyone is waiting for someone else to break the seal and make that first significant trade amid the pandemic? I guess we'll see. Let's get to today's thoughts.

1. WTF. I don't even know where to start. I really don't. The Yankees packed a month's worth of bad news into three days this week. Let's go through it one by one.

Dunked on by the Rays

The Yankees are 1-6 (-10 run differential) against the Rays and 15-3 (+38 run differential) against everyone else this season. The sweep ended the home series unbeaten streak -- the Yankees had gone 24-0-3 in their previous 27 home series dating back to last April, a franchise record unbeaten streak -- and it was the first time the Yankees were swept in a multi-game series at Yankee Stadium since the Indians got them Aug. 28th to 30th in 2017. That's a pretty good reminder that what happens during the regular season has little to no bearing on the postseason, but I know people are going to freak out over seven games in August anyway, so whatever. Aaron Boone had a really poor series. I didn't get any of the pinch-hitting decisions Wednesday night -- he went with the inferior option each time! -- and using Luis Avilan over Chad Green yesterday was horrible. There were times Boone seemed paralyzed by the three-batter minimum rule. The relievers have to do their jobs and actually get outs at some point, but the manager has to put his team in the best position to succeed, and Boone did the opposite too many times against Tampa. The Yankees are without their three best hitters and it shows -- the "next man up!" novelty has complete worn off, eh? -- though there's still enough talent on the roster to win games, and three of the six losses to Tampa came in games that were tied in the eighth inning or later. They were there for the taking. The Rays took them, the Yankees did not, and now the Rays have clinched the season series and thus own for the tiebreaker. For the Yankees to win the AL East, they have to finish ahead of Tampa. Finishing with the same record won't cut it. (There will be no tiebreaker games this season. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker criteria, intradivision record is next, and on and on it goes.) FanGraphs has the Yankees at 99.2% to make the postseason, because duh. Their AL East odds went from 76.7% before the sweep to 51.8% after the sweep, however. The Rays went from 22.7% to 46.5%. The Yankees were outplayed and the series did real damage to their division title odds. An ugly three days on the field, it was. "It's unfortunate. We’re going to have to find a way to have better outcomes. We play (the Rays) three more times and there's plenty of season left, so I'm not really worried. It’s definitely a little frustrating to get thoroughly beaten like that," Adam Ottavino told Bryan Hoch after yesterday's game. 

Britton's hamstring

Because getting swept wasn't bad enough, the Yankees lost three (3) more players to injury during the Rays series. Zack Britton was first to go down. He strained his left hamstring at some point during Wednesday's outing -- you can see him grab at it after throwing his final pitch -- and the team hasn't given a timetable for his return, though hamstring strains are usually a few weeks. The Yankees announced a 3-4 week timetable for Giancarlo Stanton's Grade 1 hamstring strain, so until they give us an update on Britton, I'm going to assume a similar timetable. "I haven't talked to him about the timeline of it yet this morning but yeah, it seemed like it maybe just tightened up and then he felt it a little bit on the last couple pitches of the inning," Boone told Kristie Ackert prior to yesterday's game. If nothing else, this should make it crystal clear to Brian Cashman & Co. that bullpen help is needed at the deadline. Green, Adam Ottavino, and Aroldis Chapman is still a pretty good late-game trio, and I like what I've seen from Jonathan Loaisiga in short bursts, but the Circle of Trust ends there. Avilan is a left-on-left specialist in a three-batter minimum world. Luis Cessa and Jonathan Holder aren't the answer. Maybe the Yankees will try Deivi Garcia in relief -- how's he looked at the alternate site? no one knows because no access is allowed -- or give Nick Nelson a longer look. I hope they do, but they'll still need another reliever or two. That was true before Britton's injury and it is even more true now. Bullpen help is an absolute must. There is not nearly enough time remaining in this short season for the guys out there now to show the Yankees they can be reliable. No Britton for a month and no Tommy Kahnle at all is bad news.

Gleyber's hamstring

Maybe it's the unusual build up to the 60-game season, maybe the new training staff is a bunch of quacks, or maybe the players are just injury prone. Whatever it is, the Yankees are again losing players to soft tissue injuries on a seemingly daily basis. They had a record number of injuries last season and has anything changed? Sure doesn't seem like it. Gleyber Torres exited yesterday afternoon's game with a tight hamstring. He hurt himself running to first base. "He seems to think it's just a little tight but we'll probably get this imaged and see where we're at from there," Boone said after the game (video link). Within the last two weeks Stanton (hamstring), Torres (hamstring), and Aaron Judge (calf) have all gone done with soft tissue lower body injuries stemming from routine baseball plays. It is 2019 all over again. Even though he's not really hitting (or fielding), losing Gleyber for any length of time would be devastating. He could turn it around at literally any moment. DJ LeMahieu will miss 2-3 weeks with his thumb injury and the Yankees were thin on the middle infield coming into the season. Thairo Estrada and Tyler Wade would be one of the worst double play combinations in the game and certainly one of the worst on a contending team. The middle infield depth in Scranton is Matt Duffy, Kyle Holder, and Jordy Mercer (more on him in a bit), and that's no good. Granted, pretty much no team can lose their two starting middle infielders and come out looking good, but geez, the drop off from LeMahieu and Torres to Estrada and Wade is pretty huge. Hopefully this is nothing and Gleyber can return in a few days. I have no reason to believe that is the case. When it comes to injuries, the Yankees lost the benefit of the doubt long ago. And, obviously, if this is a serious injury, a Grade 2 strain or worse, the Yankees would have to look at the middle infield market prior to the trade deadline. Maybe the Phillies will throw in the towel after blowing a 7-0 lead (in a seven-inning game!) yesterday and send Didi Gregorius back to the Yankees. I'd be cool with it. Not really looking forward to the Jose Iglesias, New York Yankee era, but it is closer to a reality now than I'd like it to be. "We’ve got to just keep grinding. I believe in this clubhouse. It's a part of the game. It’s crazy that this is happening again, but we're going to fight through it," Luke Voit told Bryan Hoch when asked about all the injuries. (I know I'm beating a long dead horse here, but if Torres misses significant time, please just put Miguel Andujar at third and Gio Urshela at second until something better comes along. There will be no better opportunity to get Andujar the consistent at-bats he hasn't gotten since 2018.)

Paxton's elbow

In the least surprising news ever, a pitcher who went from throwing 95-99 mph last year to throwing 91-94 mph this year is not healthy. Following yesterday's game the Yankees announced James Paxton was sent for an MRI after experiencing tightness in his forearm. They have not provided an update yet. "For Pax right now hoping for the best, that we get good news there and hopefully to continue to work to get him right," Boone said after the game (video link). Paxton pitched well through four innings yesterday before the wheels fell off in the fifth, though his maximum velocity, which had been trending up, took a big step backwards:

Forearm tightness is a common precursor to Tommy John surgery -- we were reminded of that the hard way with Kahnle -- but not always. Paxton himself missed four weeks with a forearm strain in May 2017, so this is not something new. He's dealt with this once before. The thing is, even if the MRI brings back good news, Paxton is very likely to miss time. Time he can't afford to miss. The regular season ends in five weeks and two days and that's probably not enough time to get healthy, get back into game shape, and show the Yankees he can be a trusted part of their postseason rotation. Maybe that means Paxton will be a reliever from here on out? It's possible. Why waste limited time stretching him out when he could potentially be a fierce one-inning guy out of the bullpen? The schedule allows the Yankees to avoid their fifth starter until Sept. 1st but that's going to change (more on that in a bit too), so this is the perfect opportunity to call up Clarke Schmidt -- Paxton has been so bad (6.64 ERA and 4.35 FIP) that there's a chance the Yankees get better just by replacing him from within -- and it reinforces the need for rotation help at the trade deadline. Paxton is hurt and J.A. Happ is not to be trusted. There are clear deficiencies in the rotation and the bullpen now. I understand the trade deadline is going to be weird after the shutdown and with an expanded postseason, but geez, I don't see how the Yankees can stand pat with what they have. Help is needed. (As for what the injury means for Paxton's free agency, let's see what the MRI says first. If he wasn't looking at a one-year "prove yourself" contract before, he certainly is now.)

Subway Series postponed

Tonight's Subway Series opener at Citi Field has already been postponed. The Mets have two positive COVID-19 tests (one player and one staff member), so MLB postponed their games last night and tonight. Based on how MLB has acted in similar situations, I'd bet on tomorrow's game being postponed as well -- "out of an abundance of caution" is their go-to phrase in postponement press releases this year -- and maybe Sunday's too. The Reds had one player test positive recently and they were shut down four days. A four-day break for the Mets would wipe out this weekend. The Mets flew home from Miami last night, which seems like a not great idea, but what do I know. (The two people who tested positive as well as others identified as potentially exposed via contract tracing remained in Miami.) The Yankees and Mets have a mutual off-day Monday. I guess the best case scenario is playing three games in two days Sunday and Monday? They could also play a doubleheader(s) next weekend when the Subway Series shifts to Yankee Stadium. We'll find out soon enough. Hopefully everyone with the Mets is okay. For the Yankees, having today off to regroup a bit probably isn't a bad thing. Gleyber gets to rest his hamstring, the bullpen gets a breather, so on and so forth. The Yankees just got beat up in their own park and a day or two to stew over it isn't the worst thing. Also, Judge is eligible to be activated tomorrow, so he could be back in the lineup the next time the Yankees play. The impromptu off-day could throw a wrench into their pitching plans -- as noted earlier, the Yankees don't need a fifth starter until Aug. 1st, though a doubleheader(s) would change that -- but it is what it is. They're not the only team dealing with a revised schedule. On one hand, no baseball tonight and possibly no baseball all weekend stinks. On the other hand, at least no more Yankees can get hurt. Who am I kidding. Someone will probably stick a fork in his pitching hand tonight. "Adversity, we know is inevitable. It’s gonna come in different ways, unexpected ways, and certainly in 2020 it’s been a lot of unexpected ways. I do feel like we’re uniquely equipped to deal with it and handle it, and that’ll be the expectation as we grind through a little tough spell here and a tough series," Boone told Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) after yesterday's game.

UPDATE: This weekend's series has been postponed. All three games. MLB made the announcement late Friday morning. No word on makeup games yet -- MLB will figure that out once the Mets outbreak is under control -- but the Yankees and Mets have a mutual off-day Monday and are scheduled to play three games in the Bronx next weekend. This should be easy to figure out as long as it isn't a prolonged shutdown. The Yankees' next scheduled game is Tuesday night in Atlanta. Whenever the Yankees take the field next, bet on Gerrit Cole getting the start.

2. Appreciating Voit. Even when all hope appears lost, at least the Yankees still have Luke Voit. They've turned so many unheralded pickups into quality contributors in recent years (Chad Green, Mike Tauchman, Gio Urshela, etc.) and Voit is as good as any of them. He might be the best of them, really. The trade was not a heist -- Gio Gallegos has a 2.17 ERA (2.86 FIP) with a 34.4% strikeout rate in 78.2 mostly high leverage innings with the Cardinals, so it's a win-win and both teams are happy -- but it has been high impact. Voit has homered in four straight games -- at one point his last five hits were home runs -- and he owns a .311/.386/.730 (197 wRC+) batting line on the season. Remember when I mentioned he wasn't walking? Well he has five walks in nine games since, so that's back to normal. Voit. has been a dominant hitter in pinstripes. Here are his numbers since coming over at the 2018 trade deadline (min. 500 plate appearances): 

• AVG: .283 (49th in MLB)
• OBP: .385 (12th)
• SLG: .542 (22nd)
• wRC+: 147 (8th)
• xwOBA: .396 (13th)
• HR: 45 (36th)
• BB%: 12.6% (29th)
• K%: 27.7% (35th highest)

I included strikeout rate there just to paint a complete picture and yes, Voit strikes out more than you'd like, particularly looking. Since last season 52 of his 165 strikeouts have been looking, or 31.5%. The MLB average is 23.8%. Weird. Anyway, Voit has been a top 20-ish offensive performer since the trade and that's even while including all that time he spent playing through a hernia late last year. (Removing the second half last year, Voit has hit .299/.395/.589 with 41 home runs in 580 plate appearances since the trade.) Voit's been great relative to his first base peers. Compared to what the Yankees had been getting from first base prior to his arrival, he looks like Barry Bonds. Mark Teixeira had his last good season in 2015. Here's what the Yankees got from first base from Opening Day 2016 up until the 2018 trade deadline:

• AVG: .226 (28th in MLB)
• OBP: .303 (27th in MLB)
• SLG: .408 (30th in MLB)
• wRC+: 90 (29th in MLB)
• HR: 68 (23rd in MLB)
• WAR: +0.6 WAR (28th in MLB)

Gah. That's hard to believe. It really is. I watched it with my own eyes it's still hard to believe Yankees first basemen were that bad for that long. Voit has been an enormous upgrade at first base. He hits righties (142 wRC+ with Yankees) and lefties (140 wRC+), the Yankees can put him anywhere in the lineup -- Voit started at leadoff the other day and went 1-for-3 with a walk and a two-run homer -- and he's sneaky clutch. As a Yankee, Voit is a .328/.449/.588 (175 wRC+) hitter with runners in scoring position as a .269/.406/.442 (135 wRC+) hitter in high leverage spots. And you know what? He's improved his defense too. Voit talked about improving his defense last year and I think he's been much better around the bag and scooping low throws. He's not going to be confused with Teixeira but he's gone from below-average to adequate. With that bat, I'll take it. I like Mike Ford and think he can contribute to a contending team in the expanded roster era, but man, Voit's a true difference-maker at first base. Ford can't take at-bats away from him. Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, and Giancarlo Stanton are all hurt, Aaron Hicks is in walk or nothing mode, Gary Sanchez is in homer or nothing mode, and Gleyber Torres was in not doing much of anything mode before getting hurt. The offense is in not great shape at the moment and Voit has been a steady source not just of power, but also great at-bats. He works deep counts, he doesn't expand the zone (except on this), and he makes the pitcher work for his outs. What a tremendous pickup Voit has been. "I have hit anywhere from second to seventh this year and obviously we want (Judge and Stanton) back in the lineup, hitting early in the lineup. I like to know I am in the lineup every day and it doesn’t matter where I am hitting, I will be ready to go," Voit told George King earlier this week. 

3. Possible LeMahieu extension. I know he's on the injured list now, but with each passing day it becomes harder to believe the Yankees will not re-sign DJ LeMahieu this offseason, or at least not make a serious attempt to re-sign him. Who knows, maybe the Yankees win the World Series this year and LeMahieu decides to chase every last dollar as a free agent or find a team closer to his home in Michigan once he has a ring. It's possible. LeMahieu and the Yankees are such a perfect match though. He's an all-around great player who plays a position of need -- I like Thairo Estrada and Tyler Wade as much as the next guy but I can't say I want to see either playing an infield spot full-time -- and balances out an offense that will occasionally strike out too much with his contact ability. The Yankees offer LeMahieu a chance to win every year and money (usually) isn't an issue. Generally speaking, when a free agent leaves the Yankees, it's because the Yankees let them leave. Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius did not turn the Yankees down to sign with other teams this past offseason. The Yankees never made much of an effort to retain them. Meanwhile, we've seen more than a few players come to the Yankees, absolutely love it, and not just re-sign with the team, but take less to do it. Chase Headley turned down more money to return to New York. J.A. Happ rejected a guaranteed three-year deal to come back. Zack Britton passed up opportunities to close to rejoin the Yankees. Players come to the Yankees and they love it, and they often make concessions to stay. That doesn't mean LeMahieu will do the same, everyone is their own person, but the track record speaks for itself. A few recent contract benchmarks:

LeMahieu is wrapping up a two-year deal worth $12M a season. Those contracts above tell us he's probably in line for three or four years at $13M to $16M per year, and I'd say he's at the top end of that range. You could argue he deserves more because his last two seasons were as good or better than the other guys' two seasons prior to free agency. These are all pre-pandemic contracts though. COVID-19 changed everything and we don't know how it will affect free agency. Well, we know the market will be depressed, that's a given, but we don't know how much. My hunch is the Phillies are prepared to make J.T. Realmuto the highest paid catcher in the game and won't be outbid. If he's going to leave, they're going to make him turn down more money. The thing is, if the Phillies are willing to pay him X right now, why not let him test free agency in a depressed market, and see whether they can get him for 80% of X? Why bid against yourself? That applies to the Yankees and LeMahieu. Why give him four years at $16M annually right now -- a more than reasonable contract -- when the post-pandemic free agent market may not offer more than, say, three years at $13M per season? I think it's more likely you overpay by extending him now than letting him test a depressed free agent market. There's also this: Francisco Lindor will be a free agent next offseason and the Yankees should always and forever be in on players like that. Lindor will hit free agency at age 28 and he provides all-around excellence and Grade-A intangibles. Manny Machado came with baggage. The severity of that baggage was up for debate, but there was definite baggage. Nothing like that exists with Lindor. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) recently pondered the Yankees signing Francisco Lindor next year and letting Aaron Judge walk in two years, to which I say (GIF link):

In all seriousness, Lindor will be available within the next 15 months. The Indians may trade him this offseason, and if not, free agency is coming next offseason. Do the Yankees want to lock up LeMahieu long-term without first seeing whether they can trade for Lindor and extend him a la Mookie Betts and the Dodgers? I love LeMahieu. He's the man, but I would rather have Lindor's age 28-31 seasons than LeMahieu's age 32-35 seasons from 2021-24 (you're going to have to pay for Lindor's age 32+ seasons to get those age 28-31 seasons, but that's the cost of business). This might be a neat either/or situation this winter. Either re-sign LeMahieu or trade for Lindor. Looking ahead to Lindor's free agency is much different. The window to win is open and the Yankees can't (shouldn't) hurt their chances in 2021 by letting LeMahieu go and plugging a stopgap in at second base so they can make a run at Lindor for 2022 and beyond. They'd have to re-sign LeMahieu, and what would that mean for a Lindor pursuit next year? Who knows. Worry about it when the time comes. (LeMahieu's versatility means there would be room on the roster for him and Lindor down the road anyway.) Unless LeMahieu is willing to take a sweetheart contract right now (another two years at $12M a year?), I don't see the Yankees extending him before free agency. That's not their M.O., and with free agency likely to be very unfavorable for players, the team wouldn't be assuming much risk by letting him test the market. Lindor's situation is worth monitoring but I don't think the Yankees should let it affect their decision-making with LeMahieu. He's awesome and they should try to re-sign him. Just don't be surprised if they remain patient and let him test the market rather than jump into an extension right away. The free agent market figures to be very pro-team this winter.

4. The value of winning the AL East. Just about every American League team except the Mariners and Red Sox will make the postseason this year. Okay, that's not quite true, but it feels that way. More than half the league will make it and there's a good chance a sub-.500 team will sneak into October. Here's what the postseason brackets would look like if the season ended today, which thankfully it does not:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
No. 1 Athletics (.692) vs. No. 8 Blue Jays (.522)
No. 2 Rays (.654) vs. No. 7 White Sox (.577)
No. 3 Twins (.654) vs. No. 6 Astros (.600)
No. 4 Yankees (.640) vs. No. 5 Indians (.640)*

* I'm not sure whether the Yankees or Indians would be the home team. They're tied in the first two tiebreaker criteria (intradivision record, then record in last 20 games) and not enough season has been played for the third tiebreaker (record in last 20 intradivision games plus one until the tie is broken) to decide it yet.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
No. 1 Dodgers (.704) vs. No. 8 Diamondbacks (.500)
No. 2 Cubs (.667) vs. No. 7 Rockies (.520)
No. 3 Braves (.560) vs. No. 6 Marlins (.500)
No. 4 Padres (.556) vs. No. 5 Cardinals (.500)

The top three seeds are the three division winners, the next three seeds are the second place teams, and the final two seeds are the two remaining teams with the best records. In the American League, there figures to be a pretty big disparity between the second place teams and the two wild card teams. The second place teams figure to be the Yankees or the Rays, the Twins or the Indians, and the Athletics or Astros. The White Sox look like the best third best team in a division, meaning the other wild card spot will go to the ... Rangers? Blue Jays? Maybe the Angels get their act together? Win the AL East and the Yankees will have a chance to face one of the less imposing wild card teams. Settle for second place and you're facing either a division winner or one of the other second place teams, and that's a much tougher matchup on paper. Homefield advantage might not matter much this postseason because the stands are empty and there's a decent chance the postseason will be played in a bubble anyway, but, for matchup purposes, winning the division is the way to go. Winning the division and finishing with one of the two best records in the league, I should say. That locks in a matchup with a wild card team and I'd prefer that to playing one of those more formidable second place teams. Of course, the Wild Card Round is a best-of-three series, and any team can beat any other team in a short series in this game. I've been doing this plenty long enough to know hoping for a matchup against a specific team is a fool's errand, so maybe this was all a giant waste of words. Given the apparent strength of the second place teams in the American League, I'd rather take my chances with one of the two wild card clubs. Winning the division does have value in that sense. I also acknowledge trying to predict a three-game series is pretty pointless, and winning the division might not matter one bit. C'est la vie.

5. Yankees add Mercer and Sawyer. The Yankees announced two additions to their 60-man player pool earlier this week: Jordy Mercer and Wynston Sawyer. Mercer, the veteran infielder, signed a minor league contract last Friday, the Yankees announced this Tuesday. Not sure what the delay was about. Maybe he had to go through intake testing before the deal could become official? Dunno. Whatever. Here is the updated alternate site roster:

Mercer, 33, opened the year with Tigers and was dropped from the roster about a week into the season. He hit a thoroughly unexciting but not terrible .270/.310/.438 (94 wRC+) as Detroit's utility infielder last season, and he was competent at all four infield spots. Clearly, the Yankees brought Mercer in as middle infield depth in the wake of DJ LeMahieu's injury. Now that Gleyber Torres is hurt, he becomes that much more important. Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada are in the big leagues and the only infielders at the alternate site were Duffy and Holder (Herrera can play some infield too). The Yankees needed more middle infield depth and Mercer provides it. That's all this is. Hopefully the Yankees won't need Mercer, but, if they do, he'll be in Scranton, and he'll probably hit .315/.365/.475 when he gets called up because that is the Yankees way. As for Sawyer, he's a depth catcher who will share the workload behind the plate with McDowell and Thole at the alternate site. I'm kinda surprised it took the Yankees this long to send Sawyer there. It's been more than a week since Chris Iannetta retired and Kyle Higashioka went on the injured list. Higashioka is out with an oblique strain and is not particularly close to returning -- "He's not going to be coming off (the injured list) anytime real soon here, but it is going well and he continues to ramp up from a from a workload standpoint. But nothing imminent right now," Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch earlier this week -- so yeah, the Yankees needed to get another catcher in Scranton. That is not a position where you want to get caught shorthanded. The Yankees still have two open 60-man player pool spots (maybe more eventually), and based on the season to date, I expect them to keep those two spots open through the trade deadline for flexibility. I bet they get busy filling them after the deadline, either with prospects or depth guys picked up on waivers or free agency.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Crazy idea that will never ever happen: the Angels renting out Mike Trout. The Angels are horrible (8-18!) and probably not going to the postseason, so why not let a contender borrow Trout? For example: Trout for Deivi Garcia and a player to be named later, then Trout goes back to the Angels as the player to be named later in the offseason. The game's best player gets to play in the postseason, MLB can market the hell out of it, and the Angels get a pretty good prospect for their trouble. This won't happen because the Angels won't risk Trout suffering a catastrophic injury with another team -- also, what's to stop the other team from saying "sorry, we're not giving you Trout back, pick someone else to complete the trade" -- but it's a fun idea. In this bastard season where teams are playing seven-inning games during doubleheaders and given free baserunners in extra innings, why not find a way to get the game's best player in the postseason? The Angels obviously can't do it. It would be a good thing for baseball overall to have Trout on national television in October ... I think the Yankees have hit the sweet spot with the fake crowd noise. It's low and barely noticeable during normal game play, so you can hear the sounds of the game -- it's not just players cursing (though that's fun), I enjoy hearing home runs bang off empty seats -- and they ratchet the crowd up in big moments. Sometimes they overdo it, but by and large it's good. I was worried it would be distracting when the Yankees first tested it out in Summer Camp. Now the artificial crowd is much lower and the game can breathe. I'm happy with it ... And finally, while I really miss Ken Singleton calling games, I've also found myself enjoying the set three-man booth. Every game it's Michael Kay and David Cone in the Bronx with Paul O'Neill checking in remotely. The YES Network typically rotates analysts each series (once in a while we'd get the same booth for an entire road trip), which is fine, I get it, but after years of rotating analysts, I kinda like having consistency in the booth. Same crew every night is, I dunno, comforting in a way.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Steve asks: So I am sure I am not the only one thinking this after the situation with Cleveland with the breaking protocols. I know you have said you'd prefer Carrasco (and Lindor) in the past but, what do you think it would take to acquire Clevinger or Plesac? Not sure I see either getting moved (especially in the next 2 weeks) but either one would help the long-term pitching staff outlook for the Yankees and Cashman has shown a willingness to take a small PR hit if it involves getting talent back. Do you think either is worth looking into for the Yankees?

MLB teams are nothing if not opportunistic and I have zero doubt the Indians have already received calls about Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac that were along the lines "we're willing to take this headache off your hands at a discounted rate." Clevinger's had injuries issues in recent years but has pitched at an ace level. Plesac's been solid more than great.

Players were bound to break protocols. There are too many young and wealthy and horny dudes in this game to think they'd all follow the rules to a T. Plesac and Clevinger made their situations worse with their actions afterward. Plesac posted a video blaming the media for making a big deal of him going out, and he filmed the video while driving without his seat belt, so it's safe to assume he wasn't on his way to a Mensa meeting. Clevinger went out with Plesac, didn't own up to it after Plesac got caught, and then flew home with the team. Yikes!

Indians players were pissed. Adam Plutko said Clevinger and Plesac need to regain the trust of their teammates and Jeff Passan reports several players chewed them out during a team meeting. Oliver Perez said he'd opt-out if they remained with the club and Francisco Lindor gave them the business. Clevinger and Plesac hurt their teammates and that has to be a consideration when pursuing a trade. How will the clubhouse react?

Cleveland wanted top prospect Jo Adell and a second player for Clevinger, who is under team control through 2022, over the winter according to Jon Morosi. The James Paxton trade seems like a good benchmark, no? Two years of a guy with some injuries who's pitched very well for stretches of time. Deivi Garcia and two others for Clevinger? The Zac Gallen trade is a decent barometer for a Plesac trade. The Diamondbacks gave up a mid-range top 100 prospect (Jazz Chisholm) to get six-plus years of Gallen. Plesac has five years of control and isn't as highly regarded as Gallen, so the price won't be quite as high.

Unless the Indians believe the situation with Clevinger and Plesac is beyond repair (a red flag in and of itself), I doubt they trade them prior to the deadline. Teams will absolutely use everything that happened as leverage. I don't think either was being malicious, they were just being stupid, and stupid is easier to forgive. If Clevinger or Plesac becomes available at some point, the Yankees should check in, though it wouldn't hurt to consult with team leaders (Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, etc.) to gauge the clubhouse reaction first.

Craig asks: We're all delighted at the year Chad Green is having, and adding the curveball is no doubt helping his dominance. But earlier in his Yankee career, there was hope for him as a starter. Now that he's added another effective secondary (tertiary?) pitch, isn't there an argument to be made for stretching him out to start? Or at least as a super-opener who might go four or five innings? As valuable as he is in the bullpen, he could be even more valuable as a mid-rotation starter.

Given how much pitcher usage has changed, I'm not sure the old "a mid-rotation starter is more valuable than a great reliever" argument holds up anymore. I know what WAR says -- WAR says Green has been as valuable as Martin Perez this year (both +0.6) -- but I've long believed WAR undervalues high-leverage relievers, and there's evidence that's true.

As for Green, his new curveball is real and it is spectacular. He's throwing it almost exactly as often as he threw his slider last year (22.0% vs. 21.5%) and he's actually getting fewer whiffs-per-swing with it (31.3% vs. 36.1%), but hitters aren't making good contact against it, and his fastball is playing up because of the greater velocity separation (83.8 mph curve vs. 87.8 mph slider):

2019 slider: .251 xwOBA
2020 curveball: .235 xwOBA

2019 fastball: .326 xwOBA and 28.5% whiffs-per-swing
2020 fastball: .215 xwOBA and 36.8% whiffs-per-swing 

The curveball is promising but keep in mind Green has thrown only 43 of them this year. I'm very encouraged but we're still learning about it. Once we know more, maybe the Yankees will revisit Green as a starter in the offseason -- there's no sense in trying it now, with the season ending in five weeks -- so we'll see.

Personally, I think Green is right where he belongs. He's still at best a two-pitch pitcher and I'm not sure he has the tools to turn over a lineup multiple times. Also, Green is an extreme fly ball pitcher (career 33.7% ground ball rate) and that creates home run risk, especially if he naturally loses some velocity with the role change.

I think the best case with Green is a No. 4 or 5 starter not too dissimilar from a right-handed J.A. Happ. The fastball is his No. 1 weapon and everything else is just eh. Some guys are made for the bullpen (see: Zack Britton, Tyler Clippard, Wade Davis, etc.) and there's no shame in it these days. Give me the great reliever over an okay starter.

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