Ten wins in 10 games at Yankee Stadium this year -- that ties 1951 and 1987 for the longest unbeaten streak at Yankee Stadium to begin a season in franchise history -- and 10 straight wins (and 15 wins in the last 16 games) against the Red Sox. Man are they bad. The rivalry has not been this one-sided in a long time. Anyway, let's get to today's thoughts.
1. Judge's injury. Health is a skill and it is becoming increasingly clear Aaron Judge does not have it. He is on the injured list again, this time with a calf strain. The Yankees say it's a wear and tear injury rather than an acute injury that occurred on a specific play, and they don't expect him to miss much time -- "I feel 100%. I was trying to get them to give me a couple days (off) so I’d be ready (sooner), but it is what it is. I think they’re looking out for me so it doesn’t get any worse," Judge told Dan Martin on Sunday -- but please. What reason do we have to believe that? Their messaging with injuries is positively Metsian. Judge's injury went from "we just wanted to get him off his feet" on Tuesday to "he's a little beat up" on Wednesday to "he's going on the injured list" on Friday. Teams don't owe it to fans to be completely forthcoming with injuries and fans don't owe teams the benefit of the doubt either. Calf strains can take time to heal and are easy to reaggravate, plus Judge's history suggests he's a slow healer. The broken wrist in 2018 went from a three-week recovery to a seven-week recovery and the broken rib this spring went from ready for Opening Day to being cleared just before Summer Camp. Just to put it all in one place, here are Judge's injuries:
The broken wrist was a fluky bad luck baseball thing. The 2016 knee injury and 2020 (really 2019) rib injury were the result of diving plays in the outfield, and 2017 shoulder injury was the result of crashing into the wall. Those are also bad luck baseball injuries, but when you dive around in the outfield and crash into walls, you put yourself at risk of injury. And, even if you're willing to chalk all that up to bad luck, Judge has still suffered four muscle strains in eight seasons. He's an elite producer when he's on the field -- Judge is a .275/.392/.567 (154 wRC+) career hitter who's averaged 47 home runs and +7.4 WAR per 162 games -- but he's not on the field often enough. He played 214 of 324 possible games from 2018-19 and his best case scenario this year is what, 45-50 games? He would've missed half the season with the rib injury had the season started on time. "Any time off is not good. That’s why I begged for just a couple days and not 10 days. I don’t need 10 days to feel good. I already feel 100% now. It’s tough being away, especially now, with (Giancarlo Stanton) and DJ (LeMahieu) out. It makes it tough, but it’s all precautionary stuff and I’ll be back there (when eligible to be activated) on Saturday," Judge added. The Yankees are so deep in position players it's obnoxious -- Clint Frazier was their fifth outfield option coming into the season at best -- and they can survive however long without Judge, especially with the expanded postseason field. Give the calf as much time as necessary to heal and make sure he is 100% for the postseason, because those are the games that matter, not these final 38 regular season games. The injuries are just so discouraging though. Judge is an incredible player and 100 games of him is more valuable than 162 games of most players -- Judge was 17th in WAR despite being 136th in plate appearances from 2018-19 -- but the inability to stay healthy is costly. His injuries cost the Yankees on the field and they'll cost Judge in arbitration and free agency down the line. The Yankees have the depth to overcome this injury (and all their other injuries). They'll be fine. It just absolutely sucks their franchise player is this injury prone. "We had a lot of back and forth about it. It’s hard because I know who he is and the competitor he is and obviously the greatness he brings to the table, but when you’re dealing with a soft tissue (injury), for me, it was an easy decision based on not wanting this to become a big issue," Aaron Boone told Martin about putting Judge on the injured list. (Judge and Stanton being this injury prone is exactly why the Yankees shouldn't rush into trading Frazier and Miguel Andujar. They're too valuable as depth players.)
2. LeMahieu's injury. The Yankees lost their three best hitters to injury in the span of eight days. Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) went on the injured list last Sunday, Aaron Judge (calf) went on the injured list Friday, and DJ LeMahieu (thumb) went on the injured list this past Sunday. He sprained his thumb taking a swing Saturday night and, because it is apparently Yankees policy to let guys try to play through something rather than take them out of the game immediately, LeMahieu stayed in to finish the at-bat and play defense the next half inning. For a guy who talks so much about the big picture and making sure his players are rested and healthy, Aaron Boone isn't particularly proactive when his players get hurt on the field. He's more than willing to let them try to tough it out for an inning or two. That needs to change. It needed to change three years ago and it still needs to change now. Probably his biggest flaw as a manager. Anyway, the Yankees say LeMahieu will miss 2-3 weeks -- "There's no fracture in there, and the ligaments on the side are intact and not compromised, so it's just the sprain and it's getting the swelling out of there. Hopefully (he'll be back) in that 2-3 week range," Boone told Bryan Hoch yesterday -- and that's exactly how much time he missed with a thumb sprain in 2018 (James Smyth notes several other players missed a similar amount of time with thumb sprains last season). Two to three weeks seems to be the typical recovery time. My hope was the Yankees would put Miguel Andujar at third base and Gio Urshela at second base (or vice versa) in the interim, though that's not going to happen based on the last two nights. Seems like a good opportunity to get Andujar in the lineup every single day. Oh well. I don't have too much to say about LeMahieu's injury. The Yankees have a little less than two weeks to monitor his recovery before deciding whether to add a middle infielder at the deadline. I always kinda worry about hand and wrist injuries sapping production -- for what it's worth, LeMahieu had four hits in his first game back from the thumb sprain in 2018 and never really slowed down -- though I am weirdly confident LeMahieu will be okay. Maybe that's because the guy got COVID-19, missed basically all of Summer Camp, then came back ripping line drives like nothing happened. Give the thumb as much time to heal as necessary and make sure LeMahieu is at full strength for the postseason. That's all I ask.
3. Paxton's progress. Squint your eyes and you can see James Paxton kinda sorta maybe possibly getting better each time out. The results have certainly been better the last two starts, though the Rays and Red Sox aren't exactly offensive powerhouses, and I still think hitters look way too comfortable in the box. There are still too many long counts and issues putting hitters away. Look at the numbers in two-strike counts:
Paxton's average velocity hasn't changed much in his four starts: 92.4 mph (normal rest) to 91.5 mph (seven days rest) to 93.2 mph (six days rest) to 92.9 mph (five days rest). Better lately but still way down. Paxton's maximum velocity is more encouraging: 92.5 mph to 92.7 mph to 94.2 mph to 94.8 mph. We're still waiting to see Paxton throw a fastball as fast as his average fastball last season (95.7 mph) and the maximum velocity trend suggests we could see it soon-ish. Maybe within 2-3 starts? Hope so, and I hope he keeps building from there. Paxton has spent the last few weeks talking about his mechanics -- neither he nor Aaron Boone nor Matt Blake say they believe the lack of velocity it tied to a lack of arm strength -- and, to my untrained eye, it looks like Paxton has changed his delivery slightly. Here is his Aug. 2nd start on the left and Aug. 15th start on the right (GIF link):

It's subtle, and I thought maybe I was going crazy when I first noticed it, but Paxton did not raise his right leg as high as usual during his delivery this past Saturday. Here's the frame where his leg is at its highest point:

See? I'm not crazy. Paxton didn't lift his right leg up as high as usual during his delivery Saturday night. I'd be lying if I said I knew how (or if) this helps -- based on the GIFs, Paxton is delivering the ball to the plate in the same amount of time, so he's neither sped up nor slowed down -- though it's worth noting Paxton mentioned an issue with his posture following that Aug. 2nd start. "I was trying to make an adjustment out there tonight by staying up a little taller. Last start I was kind of bending over too far. So I feel like I made that adjustment, but I’ll have to look at the tape and see what it looks like, and then just continue to search and try to find what else is going on," he said (video link). It looks to me that Paxton was a bit more upright through his delivery this past weekend, though it's hard to tell. His release point is up a bit -- it was down roughly six inches from last year in his first start and the last few times out it's only been down about three inches -- which might support the "he's standing more upright" theory. I think Paxton is moving in the right direction. I also don't think he's all that close to getting back to the guy he was in prior years. The velocity is still way down and I think that is the root cause of his problems right now. Sitting 92-94 mph is much different than sitting 95-99 mph. Hitters have that much more time to react and it is that much easier to adjust to offspeed stuff. The current version of Paxton is not a guy I would feel comfortable starting in a postseason game and he only has another 5-7 regular season starts remaining to get right before the postseason. We've seen some progress in his four starts to date and we'll need to see a bunch more the next few weeks for the Yankees to go into October at something close to full strength. "Everything that we’ve seen so far has led us to believe (Paxton's old velocity) is still in there. Obviously, any time you have a surgery on your back, there’s going to be some time to get your feet underneath you and then trust it again. I think the unique part of this rehab is that he basically did it all on his own once he started throwing again. As we’ve kind of looked at it, there’s probably some general patterns that he got into just playing catch at a lower intensity and now we’re trying to move him a little bit quicker and kind of get into some better positions underway. Basically, from the strength training and from the health side, and from the throwing program, there’s nothing that says he can’t be that. So now it’s just a matter of taking the time and not letting the 60-game season dictate what timeline that happens on. But we’re fully confident that’s in there," Blake told Brendan Kuty recently.
4. Bullpen trade targets. The Yankees welcomed Aroldis Chapman back last night and that means the bullpen is as whole as it's going to get. Tommy Kahnle is done for the year and the only realistic bullpen options at the alternate site are up-and-down guys Brooks Kriske and Nick Nelson (and Ben Heller, who was sent down last following last night's game), and veteran reclamation projects like Fernando Abad and Tony Zych. With middle relief an ongoing issue -- Jonathan Holder putting nearly two men on base for each inning pitched just isn't going to cut it -- I expect the Yankees to explore the bullpen market at the deadline. I already looked at a few possible trade targets after Kahnle got hurt. Here are a few more bullpen arms worth a phone call prior to Aug. 31st.
I sorta love it? Giles battled elbow problems throughout the second half last season and he went down with a flexor strain three games into this season. Huge red flag! It will also keep the cost down. According to Hazel Mae, Giles had an MRI this past Friday and everything checked out okay, so he played catch Saturday. "Felt very good," manager Charlie Montoyo said. Giles could get back on a mound within a week. The timetable suggests he won't get into a game before the Aug. 31st trade deadline, so the Blue Jays have two options:
1. Trade him for whatever they can get at the deadline.
2. Hold on to him and potentially lose him as a free agent after the season.
The Giles situation is very similar to the Josh Donaldson situation in 2018. Donaldson missed most of the year with shoulder and calf problems, and when it was clear he wouldn't return prior to the old Aug. 31st postseason roster eligibility deadline, the Blue Jays took the best offer and moved him. The best offer came from the Indians and was righty Julian Merryweather, a then-26-year-old fringe prospect who was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Pretty crummy return for a dude like Donaldson. Remember, the Yankees and Blue Jays made "significant progress" on a Giles trade last year -- the Yankees were going to give up three undisclosed prospects before backing out over medical concerns -- so he's on their radar and the two teams have done a bunch of legwork already. Send them a Merryweather level prospect -- the Yankees farm system equivalent is Garrett Whitlock, another Tommy John rehabber -- and hope Giles gets healthy in time for the postseason. If he does, great! He's pretty awesome (1.87 ERA and 2.27 FIP with 39.9% strikeouts last year) when healthy. If he doesn't, oh well. You haven't lost much and you at least took a shot on a high-upside player. There are roster implications to consider -- Giles would eat up a 40-man roster spot and 40-man space is pretty tight at the moment -- but I don't think that's a dealbreaker (the Yankees would survive without Luis Avilan). Point is, Giles is a potential difference-maker and his value is way down. He represents a low risk opportunity to become more formidable in a short postseason series.
The Mariners grabbed Magill on waivers last year and he's since given them 31 innings with a 4.06 ERA (3.54 FIP) and a very good strikeout rate (27.8%) and a not awful walk rate (8.3%). He's a big slider spin guy who throws twice as many breaking balls as fastballs:
The slider and curveball are two distinct pitches, not one inconsistent breaking ball, so he's a true three-pitch reliever. The lack of track record is a red flag, ditto the missing velocity -- Magill's fastball is averaging 92.1 mph this year, down from 95.2 mph last year -- but if you're looking for a lower cost bullpen arm to handle the middle innings, Magill is as good a target as anyone. And hey, if he's Actually Good, he will remain under team control through 2023. The Mariners are terrible and there's little reason to keep a guy like Magill. Cash him in as a trade chip while you can. What'll it cost? Last year's Adam Kolarek trade seems like a good benchmark. The Dodgers sent Niko Hulsizer, a fringe top 30 organizational prospect, to the Rays for Kolarek. Magill for a player to be named later who becomes a prospect like, say, Glenn Otto after the season seems reasonable.
Impending free agent closer Keone Kela is the Pirates top trade chip and I wouldn't rule out the Yankees making a run at him. To me, Rodriguez is the more interesting target. He has a 3.65 ERA (4.95 FIP) in 74 innings since last season and the rocket ball (1.93 HR/9) really hurt him last year. The strikeout (23.6%) and walk (7.5%) rates in those 74 innings are good (but not great) though, and Rodriguez has a good velocity/high spin fastball/slider combo that plays up because he gives hitters a different look from a slightly lower arm slot (video link):

Rodriguez is already 30 and he has a limited track record, which are reasons to be skeptical. He's also under team control through 2023 and a whole lotta pitchers have left the Pirates and immediately gotten better in recent years. I feel like there's more in the tank here than what he's shown the last year and a half. Maybe Rodriguez can be the next Pirates pitcher to leave and get better elsewhere. The Kolarek trade I mentioned in the Magill blurb would seem to apply here. A good but not great prospect for a reliever with a limited track record. I can't imagine Pittsburgh would make him off-limits given their current state (bad and likely to get worse before they get better).
Rosenthal, who is somehow still only 30, looked like a lost cause in his return from Tommy John surgery last year. The velocity was good (97-100 mph), but he walked 26 batters in 15.1 innings with the Nationals and Tigers, and also hit four and uncorked nine wild pitches. The Yankees picked him up in August and gave him a quick look that went nowhere (0.1 IP, 0 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HB with Triple-A Scranton). The Royals invited Rosenthal to Spring Training and he threw the ball very well, and now he's their closer. He's allowed one run in 10 innings with 13 strikeouts and four walks, and he's throwing the ball like this. He looks really, really good. Rosenthal's zone rate tells a story:
Control is often the last thing to return following elbow reconstruction and that appears to be the case here. Rosenthal was great with the Cardinals earlier in his career -- he was a key high-leverage reliever during their 2012-15 postseason runs (two runs and 42 strikeouts in 26 career postseason innings) -- so this isn't a guy coming out of nowhere. It's a guy getting back to where he was before his elbow acted up. Rosenthal is on a one-year contract and the Royals are terrible. He's Grade-A trade bait and quite possibly the best reliever on the market this deadline. There could be a bidding war for him -- the Cubs are in first place and they desperately need bullpen help -- and I wouldn't want the Yankees to go too crazy, but yeah, I think Rosenthal would be a pretty good addition to a bullpen that has been one arm short since Kahnle got hurt (even with Chapman back).
5. Alternate site additions. Last week I wrote about the four open spots the Yankees have on their 60-man player pool. They might soon have a whole lot more. According to Josh Norris (subs. req'd), MLB is mulling over a plan that would allow teams to send an additional 15 players to the alternate site. The minor league season has been canceled and it's still unclear whether the Arizona Fall League will be played, nevermind an expanded Arizona Fall League and a sister league in Florida. Rather than leave minor leaguers idle, MLB may allow clubs to send more players to their alternate site to get some work. It's better than nothing. Here's who the Yankees currently have at the alternate site:

David Hale was designated for assignment yesterday to clear 40-man and 28-man roster space for Aroldis Chapman, so we'll see whether he reports to the alternate site or gets claimed on waivers or whatever. The Yankees are short on position players in Scranton -- Norris says teams short on position players often have coaches play positions during intrasquad games -- because Miguel Andujar, Thairo Estrada, Clint Frazier, and Erik Kratz are needed in the big leagues to cover for injuries. Those extra 15 spots (plus the four spots currently open) would really go a long way right now. If nothing else, they'd allow the Yankees to hold more representative intrasquad games. Using only players currently in the organization -- I imagine there would be a rush to sign free agents should the extra 15 spots become official -- here's how I'd fill out those 15 additional spots (let's leave the other four spots open for flexibility):
Once again, we're trying to balance prospects with MLB depth players. Amburgey, Gittens, Koerner, Lane, Ort, Park, Sawyer, and Sosebee are the depth players. You hope the Yankees won't need them at some point, but, if they do, they're now a phone call away in Scranton. That leaves seven spots open for prospects. Dominguez is playing games in the Dominican Republic (video) and maybe you don't want to interrupt that for 5-6 weeks at the alternate site, but I say do it. Let him get his feet wet in pro ball. Duran and Volpe are more advanced than other 20-and-under infield prospects like Oswald Peraza and Alex Vargas, so they get the nod. Pereira's spot could instead go to Antonio Cabello, but Pereira is more polished, and I know he's an organizational favorite. He makes more sense than someone like Kevin Alcantara, who is so young and raw. (I also considered Canaan Smith for that spot.) Contreras is an obvious pick for an expanded alternate site -- I've said this before, but I was surprised he wasn't included in the original 60-man player pool -- and Sikkema is a 22-year-old recent high draft pick with three years in the SEC under his belt. I don't want that guy going stale. I really hope MLB approves the 15 alternate site spots. Too many talented young players have spent the summer at home rather than playing organized games. Anything the league can do to mitigate that is in the sport's best interest. (Here's my top 30 prospects list should you need a refresher on any of the guys I mentioned.)
6. Remembering a random Yankee: Henry Rodriguez. By request, our next random Yankee is a player who started a candy bar craze during his heyday in Montreal. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Mark Bellhorn, Jim Bruske, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Glenallen Hill, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Matt Lawton, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Donovan Osborne, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Tim Redding, Mark Reynolds, Antoan Richardson, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. Originally a Dodgers prospect who broke into the big leagues with Los Angeles in 1992, Rodriguez made a name for himself with the Expos and Cubs, hitting 139 home runs from 1996-2000. Despite the power production, Rodriguez was unable to find a multi-year deal as a free agent following the 2000 season, and he accepted a one-year contract worth $850,000 from the Yankees on Feb. 15th, 2001. The Yankees planned to use him as the lefty half of a left field platoon with Shane Spencer. The plan fell apart in Spring Training. Rodriguez went 1-for-15 (.067) with seven strikeouts to begin Grapefruit League play -- "I'd like to see him get a hit," Joe Torre told George King when asked what he thought about Rodriguez that March -- then suffered a back injury that was so severe he had to be helped off the field during batting practice. Rodriguez started the regular season on the disabled list -- the injury cleared the way for Scott Seabol to make the roster (Seabol, an 88th round pick and the 1,718th player selected in the 1996 draft, became the lowest drafted player to ever reach the big leagues) -- and it wasn't until late May that he was healthy enough to join the club. By then Chuck Knoblauch's throwing issues forced a permanent move to left field and Spencer had solidified himself as a lefty masher (.313/.348/.563 with an 8.7% strikeout rate against southpaws in 2001), so Rodriguez had no real spot on the roster. He appeared in five games with the Yankees:
Rodriguez went 0-for-8 with six strikeouts as a Yankee. He did not play a single inning in the field and, because he struck out in several high-leverage situations, Rodriguez finished with -0.279 win probability added. More than a quarter of a win (quarter of a loss, really) in eight at-bats! My goodness. Here are some dumb small sample size franchise records:
HIGHEST STRIKEOUT RATE (min. 8 PA, non-pitchers only)
1. Henry Rodriguez, 2001: 75.0% (6 K in 8 PA)
2. Duke Carmel, 1965: 63.5% (5 K in 8 PA)
3. Steve Kiefer, 1989: 63.5% (5 K in 8 PA)
4. Scott Sizemore, 2014: 50.0% (8 K in 16 PA)
5. Mike Figga, 1997-99: 50.0% (4 K in 8 PA)
WORST WPA (max. 8 PA, non-pitchers only)
1. Henry Rodriguez, 2001: -0.279 (8 PA)
2. Keith Hughes, 1987: -0.205 (4 PA)
3. Roger Holt, 1980: -0.202 (7 PA)
4. Stan Javier, 1984: -0.188 (7 PA)
5. Jim Deidel, 1974: -0.175 (2 PA)
I guess that makes Rodriguez the least clutch hitter in Yankees history. (Deidel's -0.175 WPA in two plate appearances is so bad it's impressive. His two plate appearances came in the same game and he flew out in the 11th inning and grounded into a double play to end the 13th inning.) No contact, no defensive value, and no versatility equals no role. The Yankees released Rodriguez on June 19th and he spent the rest of the season unsigned. He did return to the Expos in 2002, however, and went 1-for-20 (.050) before being released. Rodriguez, now 52, attempted a comeback in 2004 and spent four years bouncing around independent leagues and the Mexican League. He's been out of baseball since 2007.
7. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB has updated their COVID-19 protocols. According to Jon Heyman, players who test positive can petition to return after 10 days even if they continue to test positive. They still need medical board approval but no longer need to test negative twice at least 24 hours apart to return. Zach Binney, an epidemiologist who's had no trouble ripping the various sports leagues for lax COVID-19 protocols, says this is fine given what we know now about contagiousness. It's too late to get Aroldis Chapman back a few days sooner but it's a good thing overall. The less time players miss, the better ... Bunch of new prospect rankings hit internet shelves recently. Baseball America (subs. req'd) has three Yankees on their midseason top 100 prospects list: Jasson Dominguez (No. 40), Clarke Schmidt (No. 66), and Deivi Garcia (No. 70). They all moved up exactly one spot from the preseason list. It appears all the top 100 movement stems from graduations, 2020 draftees being added, and injuries. Not much else to go on at this point. Also, Baseball America (subs. req'd) says the Yankees have the 18th best farm system, down a spot from preseason. The Royals moved from 18th to 16th after adding No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy in the draft a few weeks ago, which is why the Yankees dropped. And lastly, MLB.com updated their top 30 Yankees prospects list. It's basically the preseason list with the three 2020 draftees added. Still, all their information and scouting reports are free. Such a great resource ... And finally, I really wish the Yankees would get in on the fan cutout action. The tarps and empty seats at Yankee Stadium are so ugly. Just about every other team is allowing fans to purchase cutouts, and while they hardly replace a real crowd, it makes everything feel a little less dystopian. I suspect this is one of those "the Yankees are too classy for this" things but that's lame. People are having fun with it (there's a row of dog cutouts behind the plate in San Diego) and I wish the Yankees would get in on it. The tarps and empty seats are an eyesore.
(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)
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