July 21st, 2020: Exhibition Games, 30-Man Roster, German, Warren

Summer Camp started a few weeks ago but only now do I feel like baseball is really, truly back. The Yankees played other teams (!) in exhibition games the last three nights and it felt ... normal. It felt normal watching actual baseball games again even though not much about this season is normal. The next time the Yankees play, the game will count. That's fun. Let's get to today's post.

1. Exhibition game observations. For the first time since the old Mayor's Trophy games, the Yankees and Mets played exhibition games in New York this weekend. The Yankees swept this weekend's home-and-home series with the Mets before tying last night's exhibition finale with the Phillies. Two wins, one tie, eight dingers, and no injuries makes for a successful exhibition slate. Ready to read way too much into three meaningless games? Here are a few observations.

King's improved velocity

It was mostly intrasquad games, I know, but Mike King looked really good in Summer Camp. His velocity was up in the first exhibition game too. Statcast says his two-seamer averaged 93.6 mph and topped out at 95.8 mph on Saturday. This will play (GIF via Lucas A):

In his September appearance last season King averaged 91.4 mph and topped out at 92.9 mph. Big difference! The scouting reports all pegged him as a low-90s guy over the years. There are multiple possible explanations. One, the gun was hot Saturday. Always possible but less likely in the high tech era. Two, King was really amped up pitching in an MLB park for the first time this year. Adrenaline is a hell of a thing. Three, he's healthy. King missed the first three months of last season with an elbow injury and he may have never been right after that. And four, it's real improvement and the Yankees helped King add velocity. They've done that with more than a few pitching prospects over the years. Going from 91-93 to 93-96 would be a pretty big deal. Also, King is throwing more four-seamers to complement his other pitches (two-seamer, changeup, slider, cutter). Veteran backstop Chris Iannetta suggested that, according to the YES Network broadcast. I'm intrigued. Mostly by the added velocity but also by the four-seamer because King's calling card has always been his command and pitching know-how. Combine that with more velocity and the Yankees could really have something. We need to see more before we can declare King's newfound velocity here to stay -- right now we only have a tiny sample -- but he pitched well in Summer Camp and I think he's a lock for the Opening Day roster, likely in a swingman capacity.

Montgomery's improved velocity

Jordan Montgomery's velocity was reportedly up in Spring Training but we couldn't confirm that any way other than word of mouth. There's no Statcast down in the Grapefruit League. Well, Sunday night, Montgomery's heater averaged 92.8 mph and topped out at 95.2 mph. It was 91.9 mph and 94.7 mph in 2017, respectively, so a slight uptick. Montgomery threw 59 pitches in five dominant innings -- he went out to the bullpen afterward to get up to his scheduled pitch count for the night -- and got 15 swings and misses. Montgomery made 35 starts from 2017-18 and generated at least 15 swings and misses in only four of them, and in each of those four games he threw at lest 89 pitches. Maybe the Mets are just lost at the plate right now, but goodness, Montgomery looks excellent. I was worried about him post-Tommy John surgery because he's not a big stuff guy, and if the surgery took any bite away from his stuff, it would have been bad, bad news. Instead, Montgomery is throwing harder than ever, and his three secondary pitches (curveball, slider, changeup) haven't taken a step back at all. The velocity uptick isn't as big as King's, at least not based on what we saw this weekend, but it's hard not to be excited about Montgomery. He looked very good in Spring Training and he looks just as good now, following that long shutdown.

Sanchez's new stance

The best thing I can say about Gary Sanchez's new one-knee catching stance is that I've barely noticed it. He doesn't look awkward back there nor is he constantly fidgeting around trying to get comfortable. It looks natural. Sanchez called the new catching stance a "work in progress" in Spring Training and he worked on it during the shutdown, and he seems more comfortable with it now. He's alternating his right and left knee as necessary and there were no egregious blocking mishaps in the exhibition games. Nothing he should've blocked but didn't. Hell, John Flaherty even praised Sanchez and his new stance during a recent intrasquad broadcast and Flaherty never hesitates to criticize and nitpick catchers (all catchers, not just Gary). Sanchez's blocking has improved but his framing has gone south the last few years ...

• 2017: +7.4 framing runs and -3.1 blocking runs
• 2018: +3.3 framing runs and -4.3 blocking runs
• 2019: -5.1 framing runs and -0.8 blocking runs

... and the new stance is designed to help him better frame pitches, particularly pitches at the bottom of the zone, without sacrificing blocking. We have no idea whether it will work at this point, but the first step in the process is Sanchez getting comfortable with the stance, and that seems to have happened (or is happening). I don't think anyone realistically expects Gary to turn into a Gold Glover, but if the one-knee stance can help him marry even average framing with average blocking, it would be a nice improvement, especially if he keeps hitting balls in the second deck.

Green's new curveball

Chad Green's new curveball made an appearance Saturday. Statcast classified it as a slider for whatever reason but this sure doesn't look like a slider (GIF via Lucas A):

Either that's the first slider with a hump I've ever seen in my life or it's a curveball. Gonna go ahead and say the Statcast classification is wrong and that's the new curve. Green threw six curves in 15 pitches Saturday, or 40.0% percent. Last year he threw 22.8% non-fastballs. At worst, he's throwing the curveball a ton now because he wants to get comfortable with it. At best, it's a new weapon he's planning to throw quite a bit. Here's the other thing: five misses among nine swings (four in five against the fastball and one in four against the curve). Tiny sample, I know, but encouraging nonetheless. The curveball helps two pitches. It forces hitters to respect the curve and gets them off the fastball ever so slightly. If this curveball becomes a reliable weapon -- to be clear, we're still trying to figure that out, it's early -- it'll give Green that long-awaited second pitch and also help his already excellent fastball play up. Hopefully this curveball becomes a thing and doesn't fall by the wayside like so many "pitcher working on a new pitch" Spring Training stories.

Ottavino's glove tap returns

Back in Spring Training, Adam Ottavino revealed he made an adjustment to help combat the running game. He is very susceptible to stolen bases (runners are 39-for-43 stealing bases against him the last two years) and Ottavino eliminated the glove tap in his delivery to speed up his time to the plate. Click that link and you can see the before and after GIFs. Last year he set his hands at his waist and tapped the glove. In Spring Training he set his hands at his chest and there was no glove tap. Saturday night his hands were at his waist again and the glove tap had returned. He did it on every pitch (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Ottavino had a 1-2-3 inning Saturday. I was hoping he'd pitch again Sunday or Monday and allow a baserunner so we could see whether he eliminated the glove tap with a runner on base, but no luck. He didn't pitch. Ottavino admitted he still wasn't completely comfortable with the altered delivery in Spring Training and it's possible (likely at this point, I think) he's given up on the adjustment entirely, and is going back to what worked for him in the past. "I can’t sacrifice too much of getting the speed to home to throw with some authority," he said in March. Ottavino is very susceptible to the stolen base -- that could be a real problem in extra innings with the tiebreaker rule -- but the batter is still the priority. You don't want Ottavino getting so caught up with trying to hold the runner that his ability to retire the batter is compromised. If he is not comfortable without the glove tap, so much so that it makes him less effective, then by all means, tap that glove. Saturday's outing is a pretty good indication Ottavino is doing it again and he's scrapped the adjustment he made in Spring Training. I don't think he'd bring the glove tap back, even temporarily, if he were serious about eliminating it.

The depth is insane

It's one thing to read the names on a depth chart. It's another to see that depth in action. Last night's starting lineup figures to be the most of the time lineup during the regular season. Maybe not in the exact same 1-9 order but the same nine names. Here's the lineup Aaron Boone sent out there last night:

1. 2B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Gleyber Torres
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. CF Aaron Hicks
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. 1B Luke Voit
8. LF Brett Gardner
9. 3B Gio Urshela

The worst player in that lineup is who, Gardner? A guy who rattles off +3 WAR seasons like clockwork? The correct answer is probably Urshela given his limited track record, but the point is the Yankees have a better than average player at every position, and that lineup does not include Miguel Andujar, the 2018 Rookie of the Year runner-up (who twice took Gerrit Cole deep in intrasquad games), or Clint Frazier or the Mikes (Ford and Tauchman). The Yankees lost Aroldis Chapman to COVID-19 and their top four relievers (Green, Ottavino, Zack Britton, Tommy Kahnle) are still as good as any top four in the game. Picking between youngsters like King, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Clarke Schmidt until October king Masahiro Tanaka returns is the sort of rotation depth we all dreamed the Yankees would have in the mid-to-late-2000s. FanGraphs projections say the Yankees are top six at every position except first base (10th) and third base (18th), and I think Voit/Ford and Urshela/Andujar have the potential to play much better than that. When that's the starting lineup and the B-team off the bench in the late innings of an exhibition game includes Andujar and Ford and Frazier and Thairo Estrada, I can't help but get really excited about this team. The Yankees survived all those injuries last year because their internal replacement level is so high. Now all the guys who got hurt last season are healthy (except Luis Severino), and just about all the depth pieces who carried the Yankees are still around.

The atmosphere

The artificial crowd noise is hit or miss. It sounds better at some ballparks (or is it the broadcast?) than others. I watched Dodgers-Diamondbacks the last two nights and the Dodger Stadium crowd noise is very good. Close your eyes and you'd think it was a real crowd. The Citi Field crowd was fine. The steady hum kinda sorta sounded like a real game and the action noise was mostly okay. The Yankee Stadium crowd noise? Eh. Didn't think it was great. The steady hum sounds like waves crashing at the beach, and the crowd reaction didn't match the play in many instances. Loud cheers for a foul ball, a polite clap for a nice catch, etc. The crowd was either too excited or not excited enough. Hopefully that improves. Overall, it's fine. The crowd noise didn't help or hurt the broadcast in my opinion. I appreciate the effort. The empty seats, particularly in the outfield, are much more jarring than the fake crowd. I got used to the empty seats behind the plate quickly -- the cardboard fan cutouts are a fun idea but I tuned them out not long after first pitch Saturday night -- but seeing the empty stands on a batted ball? It makes for a weird visual and I'm not sure I'll ever get used to it. Teams are selling ad space all over the ballpark -- the Yankees had digital ads in the seats behind home plate and in the outfield, and other teams have physical ads all over the place (you can see some here) -- and that's fine. They have to do what they can to make money this year and eventually we won't even notice them. For the most part COVID-ball feels surprisingly normal. The baseball looks like baseball and the crowd noise isn't a distraction, but seeing all the empty seats is a constant reminder that none of this is actually normal.

2. Another 30-man roster projection. Might as well squeeze in one last 30-man Opening Day roster projection before the Yankees make the roster official. Here are the recent developments that may or may not affect the roster:

• Masahiro Tanaka threw another bullpen session Sunday.
• DJ LeMahieu returned and played in Sunday's and Monday's games.
• Luis Cessa rejoined the Yankees and threw a bullpen session Monday.
• Albert Abreu, Kyle Holder, and Josh Thole were sent to the alternate training site in Scranton, the Yankees announced.

Even though he played in the final two exhibition games (0-for-5 and nine defensive innings), LeMahieu himself downplayed being on the Opening Day roster. "It’s a possibility. I don’t know if it is realistic or not. It’s up to the trainers and (Aaron Boone). I think it will be pretty close. If not Opening Day, then (within) the first few games," he said Sunday. LeMahieu is a machine but I'm not sure anyone can get ready that quickly after such a long layoff. I say let him properly rack up at-bats in simulated games the next few days rather than force him onto the Opening Day roster. The Yankees have enough offense to get by in the interim. Tanaka's bullpen session was his second since taking the line drive to the head and all went well. He's expected to face hitters in live batting practice later today, then pitch in an intrasquad or simulated game to get back on a five-day schedule. I suppose that could happen this weekend, allowing Tanaka to rejoin the rotation later next week. He'd miss one turn. If he needs another intrasquad or simulated game after that, then the Yankees will figure it out. Cessa just got back up on a mound yesterday, so forget about him for the Opening Day roster. The Abreu, Holder, and Thole moves whittle down the roster candidates (and were expected). Here is my latest (and final) 30-man Opening Day roster projection. Changes from last week are in yellow:

I am officially ruling Clarke Schmidt out of the fifth starter's race. Not because he pitched poorly in Spring Training or Summer Camp (he didn't), but because Tanaka is progressing well and is not expected to miss much time. With an expanded roster and multiple long men (Hale, King, Loaisiga) and the other four starters all stretched out to 5+ innings, I think the Yankees are much more likely to use an opener as the fifth starter for what might only be one spot start. I don't think they want to go through all the roster machinations (clear and tie up a 40-man spot, start his service time clock, etc.) to get Schmidt on the roster for one start. When they call him up, I think they want him up for good and not bounce him back and forth. This is a kid with only 29.9 Double-A innings (and zero Triple-A innings) under his belt, remember. Not putting him on the roster for one start is defensible. We'll see Schmidt soon enough. Just not on the Opening Day roster. Rather than replace Schmidt with yet another pitcher, I think the Yankees will carry Ford and go with 15 position players and 15 pitchers. An even split. Eleven relievers should be plenty, and with LeMahieu out and Andujar not all that experienced at first base, the Yankees need a steadier backup first baseman. Plus Ford is a lefty power bat who can pinch-hit for the second baseman (Estrada or Wade) in the late innings. Case in point: last night's dinger. "He's the real deal in the box," Boone said last night. Ford is better use of a roster spot than a 12th reliever. That's what I think the Opening Day roster looks like. Cessa, LeMahieu, and Tanaka could return as soon as next week (maybe earlier in LeMahieu's case), and the week after that the roster goes from 30 players to 28 players, so it'll change quite a bit in short order. 

3. German quits, then un-quits. Domingo German had himself a night Friday, huh? German posted a few cryptic (and since deleted) messages on social media indicating he is quitting baseball -- "I’ve left baseball. Thanks everyone," one said flatly -- and not even the Yankees knew what was going on. "It's all very unclear ... I know there hasn’t been much between the club and him about what exactly is going on," Aaron Boone said. A day later German issued an apology and confirmed he is not in fact quitting baseball.

"To my teammates, the Yankees organization and our fans, I am very sorry for the unsettling post last night. This past year has been very tough for my family and myself, for which I take full responsibility. Not being with my teammates while they get ready for the season, knowing that I have let them down, has taken a toll on me and last night I let my emotions get the best of me. I am using this time to get stronger, become a better person and father and I can only hope that I will get to join my teammates once again to make them proud. Please forgive me for this mistake."

Who among us hasn't had a crummy night and posted something we regret the next day? On top of the pandemic-related stress, it can't be easy sitting at home watching your teammates get ready for the season. At the same time, German being away from the team is his fault. He's away from the Yankees because he did something horrible -- we don't know the details of the incident that led to his suspension and I don't care to know, but whatever it was it was bad enough to warrant the fourth longest suspension under the domestic violence policy -- and I have zero sympathy for him. This isn't Luis Severino being away from the team because he's hurt or some random prospect who has nowhere to play because the minor league season was canceled. German has to serve the final 63 games of his 81-game suspension this year, so he'll miss the 60-game regular season. He is currently on the restricted list and not receiving pay or service time. Even if he were serious about quitting baseball, the Yankees would say take some time and think about it, and if you still feel that way when your suspension ends, so be it. Either way the Yankees would retain his rights. They'd either keep German on the restricted list indefinitely (he walks away like Andrew Toles) or they'd keep his rights even after he files his retirement paperwork (that rule is in place so players can't retire and un-retire to become free agents). The Yankees have two starting pitchers (James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka) and possibly a third (J.A. Happ) set to become free agents after the season. Severino isn't expected back until midseason, so Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery are the only locks for the 2021 rotation at the moment. If German wants to continue pitching, the Yankees will have a place for him. The young man seems to be going through some things though. For his sake and his family's sake, I hope he gets well.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Matt Lawton. By request, our next random Yankee is a player whose first job in baseball was minor league bat boy. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Mark Bellhorn, Jim Bruske, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. Long after he was a bat boy for his brother's minor league team (Jackson Mets in Mississippi), Lawton broke into the big leagues with the Twins in 1995 -- I did not realize he started his career that long ago (where does the time go?) -- and he was a competent and occasionally stellar player with Minnesota until the 2001 trade deadline, when they shipped him to the Mets for Rick Reed. The Mets sent him to the Indians in the Roberto Alomar trade after the season, the Indians sent him to the Pirates for Arthur Rhodes in Dec. 2004, and the Pirates sent him to the Cubs for Jody Gerut at the 2005 trade deadline. Lawton made two All-Star Games along the way (2000 with the Twins and 2004 with the Indians). His stint in Chicago did not last long, however. He played 19 games with the Cubs following the trade in 2005, went 19-for-78 (.244) at the plate, then was dealt to the Yankees for minor league righty Justin Berg on Aug. 27th. (Berg was the team's 43rd round pick in 2003 and he did reach the big leagues with the Cubs, throwing 64 innings with a 4.08 ERA from 2009-11). The Yankees needed help on the bench -- Bubba Crosby was their primary backup outfielder behind Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, and late career Bernie Williams -- and Lawton could play all three outfield spots, run a little, and he had enough lefty pop to put a mistake in the old short porch. "He allows us to do some things we couldn’t do before. He’s a talented player who gives us more depth. We’ve been light on the bench," Joe Torre told the Associated Press after the trade. Lawton, then 33, played a decent amount at first, starting six of his first seven games on the roster, but it did not go well (4-for-22 in his first six games followed by an 0-for-19 skid) and he gradually lost playing time. His best game as a Yankee came on Sept. 21st. Lawton went 2-for-3 with a second inning two-run home run in a 2-1 win over the Orioles. He went 6-for-48 (.125) as a Yankee overall and had hits in only three of his 14 starts. The total damage in his 21 games was -0.4 WAR, or a -3 WAR pace per 162 games. Over 600 non-pitchers (636 to be exact) have batted at least 50 times as a Yankee and only three have a lower batting average than Lawton:

1. Ben Francisco: .114 (5-for-44)
2. Angel Aragon: .118 (9-for-76)
3. Paul Zuvella: .122 (10-for-82)
4. Matt Lawton: .125 (6-for-48)
5. Babe Borton: .130 (14-for-108)

Lawton did not play in the postseason that year -- he never played in the postseason in his 12-year career, in fact -- and he became a free agent after the season. He tested positive for boldenone, a performance-enhancing drug, just days after hitting the open market. His punishment: 10-game suspension. Such were the rules at the time. Lawton hooked on with the Mariners later that winter but his stint in Seattle lasted only 11 games. He was released in May 2006 and has been out of baseball since. Lawton was the last player suspended only 10 games for a banned substance. MLB and the MLBPA agreed to up the first time offender penalty to 50 games soon thereafter.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. So long, Adam Warren. The Yankees released him last week, the team announced. Warren is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and was in the first year of a two-year minor league contract. Brian Cashman told Jack Curry that a) Warren's rehab is "going fine," and b) he is a "casualty" of the COVID-19 roster rules. Apparently teams only have so many minor league reserve spots to play with this year, so the Yankees cut Warren rather than a prospect. Cashman said the Yankees will re-sign Warren this winter. This is all just procedural to deal with the roster limits ... Righty Cale Coshow, who had Tommy John surgery last May, is pitching for the independent Fargo-Morehead RedHawks this summer. He threw a scoreless inning in his first appearance last Friday. Minor leaguers can play indy ball with their parent team's permission this year and obviously the Yankees gave Coshow the thumbs up. He was in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee in 2018 and 2019 but is not really a prospect at this point -- the 28-year-old was a 13th round pick in 2013 and he had a 4.95 ERA (4.61 FIP) in 56.1 Triple-A innings in 2018, his last healthy season -- but his Tommy John surgery rehab has apparently gone well enough that he's returned to game action. Gonna have to scour the indy leagues soon and see who's playing where (UPDATE: Coshow became a minor league free agent after last season and is still unsigned, so he's no longer with the Yankees. The indy ball stint is as much about game action rehab work as it is finding a job for next season) ... And finally, the Blue Jays have been kicked out of Canada. Late last week the federal government ruled the Blue Jays can not play regular season home games in Toronto -- they're holding Summer Camp at Rogers Centre, but the players are isolated at the hotel attached the ballpark -- because all the travel in and out of the country is too dangerous. Five homestands and 10 home series equals 15 individual team trips into Canada and that's just too much for a country that actually cares about the health of its citizens. The Blue Jays are looking at their Triple-A park in Buffalo, but the facilities (clubhouses, etc.) aren't MLB caliber and neither are the lights. They're also looking at playing games in Pittsburgh, but wouldn't that defeat the purpose of regional play? Regional play is intended to limit travel and isolate teams geographically. Let the Blue Jays play in PNC Park and you're putting four divisions at increased risk. The Yankees have two road series against the Blue Jays near the end of the season: Sept. 7th to 9th and Sept. 21st to 24th. Their ballpark situation will be resolved long before that (I assume) but it's pretty wild the regular season begins in two days and a team has no idea where it will play its home games. (The Blue Jays start the season with a five-game road trip. Their first home game is next Wednesday.)

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)