May 8th, 2020: Restart Plans, Injury Updates, 2020 Draft, Mailbag

Hi everyone. I hope you're hanging in there. To make a baseball analogy, we're in the dogs days of quarantine, only there's no promise of the postseason to liven things up in a few weeks. Wear a mask, wash your hands, and stay safe. Now for today's thoughts.

1. Latest restart plans. In recent days it has been reported MLB will present the MLBPA with a plan, likely within a week, to start the 2020 season. It will be only the first proposal, and there will be counter-proposals and counter-counter-proposals, so on and so forth. Jeff Passan, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd), and Joel Sherman all have the news. Randy Levine, who is very good at sounding like he knows everything and also nothing at all, was on the radio earlier this week to discuss the plan to begin baseball. From David Lennon:

“Well, there's no official date yet,” Levine said Wednesday in an interview with 1010 WINS radio. “There are many plans that all the clubs and the commissioner are looking at right now. Obviously, what happens on the ground with the virus is important to monitor on a day-to-day basis. But I think we are moving closer to finalizing a plan, which we would set forth, talk to all the public health officials, make sure that they're on board and see if we can progress. So I can't give you a date right now. All I can tell you is everybody's working really hard to get this done.”

...

“So we need to get going. But we need to do it in a safe way. From Jackie Robinson stepping up to after 9/11, baseball’s held a very, very special place in bringing the country some comfort after turbulent times. The economics are really important, but we have to deal with the reality of the economics. Obviously, television isn’t the whole ballgame as far as the financial economics of the game. Sometimes you’ve got to play the games, play ball, and there are more important things than economics.”

...

“You start with no fans, you watch the progression of the virus —  because keeping people safe is important — and then you maybe start with a limited number of fans, see where it goes and then increase it,” Levine said. “All the while making sure that people are safe when they come to the ballpark. There's mitigation. Their temperatures are checked, there are health stations. There are people wearing masks, gloves — it'd be great to have some Yankee masks and gloves out there. They eat certain foods that wouldn't disrupt the masks. The stadium would be disinfected and we'd have a great advantage because obviously Yankee Stadium is an open-air stadium and it's much different from being in a confined building.” 

Certain foods that wouldn't disrupt the masks? Yet another reminder the people in charge do not live in reality. Not our reality, anyway. Reports indicate MLB is hoping to start Spring Training 2.0 in June and have Opening Day in early-July, likely to coincide with the Fourth of July to have the sort of patriotic pageantry MLB obsesses over. The league would love nothing more than to roll out giant flags and have flyovers and fireworks on Opening Day, and sell it as "eff yeah America!" Every report is couched with "any plans to start the season are subject to change" because they have to say that, but it sure feels like MLB has already decided Opening Day will take place in early-July, and there will be more than enough political support (and sponsor support) to make it happen. The players want to play too, and I suspect most will go along with it (the more they play, the more they get paid under the prorated salary plan). Whether playing baseball is actually safe will be a secondary concern. The people in charge (of the country, of baseball, etc.) want nothing more than things to go back to normal, and many of them have decided to force a "normal" life on us. Some states are opening back up and, predictably, the virus is spreading, particularly outside New York and the Northeast. Quarantine was never the solution. It was to buy time until the government could enact a testing and tracing plan to contain the virus and LOL. "We've done nothing and we're all out of ideas," sums it up nicely. This is a historic, colossal failure, and the people in charge have decided 2,000 dead Americans a day is an acceptable price to pay for hoping people forget about it. Why should we believe MLB will see things any differently? They'll put people at risk to get the show on the road. Levine said it himself, "the economics are really important," and MLB can hide behind baseball holding a "very, very special place in bringing the country some comfort after turbulent times." That's what every plan to bring baseball back revolves around, bringing people comfort. No one is saying they're doing this because it's safe and we can do it. It's because gosh darn it, people need baseball during these tough times. I know we all see MLB players as strong, healthy young men, and by and large they are, but what about the coaches, umpires, grounds crew, ball boys, other support staff, and their families? What about those in the baseball bubble with autoimmune disorders or other health issues that put them at risk of serious complications from COVID-19? Sean Doolittle's wife revealed she has a medical condition that puts her at increased risk. Adam Duvall is a Type 1 diabetic. What's the plan to protect them? Other players have medical conditions that put them at heightened risk too. The sheer numbers make it inevitable. And what happens when someone gets sick (because someone will get sick)? The answer can't be "deal with it when it happens" or "isolate that one person," but things sure are barrelling in that direction. The Korea Baseball Organization and Chinese Professional Baseball League opened their seasons recently and I think it is deeply frustrating for MLB, and maybe even a little embarrassing. It's not their fault, they're not in charge of the pandemic response, but they want to get their season going, and they seem willing to put everyone in their orbit at risk because more than a few states are doing the same thing. MLB is being enabled. I'm sorry for the quasi-political rant but holy crap man. Everyone in charge just up and decided to pretend things will be fine, and all those sick and dead people (moms and dads, brothers and sisters, sons and daughters, friends and neighbors) are an acceptable loss to "reopen the economy?" Is that a position MLB really wants to adopt? I miss baseball dearly. I do. And my livelihood depends on it, so I eagerly await its return. I also miss my friends and going out to eat and all that stuff too. I just don't like where this is heading. The infection rate around the country tells us bringing the sport back now (or even in a few weeks) is an unnecessary risk and perhaps even counter to the containment efforts, but it feels like MLB has decided it's going to happen, and the powers will give them the green light.

2. Injury updates. Alright, let's talk actual baseball, shall we? Earlier this week Aaron Boone gave several injury updates during an MLB Network Radio appearance. Here's the audio. "Obviously, everyone kind of mentions a silver lining with us and I think that's very much true," Boone said, referring to players getting healthy during the shutdown. Let's go through the injury updates player-by-player. Onward.

Aaron Hicks (elbow reconstruction)

Last we heard, Hicks had started swinging "with a regular bat and a fungo" as part of his Tommy John surgery rehab. That was three weeks ago. He's since progressed to hitting soft toss from both sides of the plate. He's stretched out his throwing program as well. "He’s doing well. He’s already doing soft toss from both sides of the plate and throwing 90+ feet. He’s trending in a really good direction," Boone said. Didi Gregorius had not yet progressed beyond dry swings at this point last year. Hicks is already hitting soft toss. Their rehab schedules mostly line up -- Gregorius had his surgery a week earlier and started swinging a bat earlier, but Hicks started hitting balls sooner, though I wouldn't sweat slight differences like that, every rehab is different and Hicks now is progressing at roughly the same pace as Sir Didi last year -- and that's good news. Hicks is seemingly on track to return in mid-June-ish like Gregorius last season.

Aaron Judge (rib fracture)

Doesn't sound like much has changed with Judge. Two weeks ago we heard he is still in healing mode and that's what Boone said again this week. "He's due for another CT scan, I believe, in a couple more weeks. So this time down has allowed that rib -- that bone -- to hopefully continue to heal. All signs are encouraging there, and hopefully this time down allows that rib to heal properly and hopefully have him part of all this," Boone said. That's ... good? Little less optimistic than I hoped. The Yankees finally discovered the fractured rib and shut Judge down on March 6th. At the time, he said "hopefully in three weeks, four weeks, I’ll start getting back into moving everything." That was nine weeks ago, and he's still in healing mode. Not great. Sure seems like the rib is taking longer than expected to get better. The most optimistic scenarios have Spring Training 2.0 opening next month and the regular season starting in early-July. That gives the Yankees and Judge another six weeks or so of downtime to let the rib heal. Not gonna lie though, I'm anxious to get a "Judge can start swinging a bat in two weeks" update already. Something like that. Right now, every update makes it sound like he's still in limbo with no real timetable for him to resume workouts and get ready for the season. No need to rush into anything, obviously. We're at least a month away from Spring Training 2.0. I just hope this doesn't linger much longer. It's lingered long enough already.

James Paxton (back surgery)

Sounds like Paxton is done rehabbing and has transitioned into preparing for the season, or is very close to it. "James Paxton, who was probably going to be ready in about mid-May, is on that timeline. He's already thrown five or six bullpens -- I think he actually threw a sim game (Tuesday) to a couple guys where he is -- and his rehab has gone really, really well," said the skipper. I assume Paxton will move forward cautiously and need more time to get game ready than most pitchers given the injury, but that's fine. If he's already throwing simulated games, he should have plenty of time to prepare for Spring Training 2.0. Fingers crossed that there are no setbacks. Otherwise this is very encouraging news. Paxton is on track to miss zero regular season games.

Giancarlo Stanton (calf strain)

Nothing to update here. Stanton was declared healthy in late-March and he would've been able to begin playing minor league rehab games had the shutdown not been necessary. "He should be good to go whenever we get ready to go back," Boone said. Stanton's a healthy player at this point. He's not rehabbing anything.

3. 2020 draft prospect: Mississippi State RHP J.T. Ginn. We don't know when the 2020 amateur draft will take place just yet -- MLB can hold it anytime between June 10th and July 20th, and it sounds like it'll be June 10th or close to it -- but there will be a draft this year, and I'm gonna break down potential Yankees targets the next few weeks. We've already covered RHP Nick Bitsko, RHP Tanner Burns, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF Isaiah Greene, RHP Bryce Jarvis, LHP Luke Little, RHP Max Meyer, RHP C.J. Van Eyk, and C Austin Wells. The Dodgers were unable to meet Ginn's asking price as the 30th overall pick in 2018 and he instead followed through on his commitment to Mississippi State. He was very good as a freshman last year, pitching to a 3.13 ERA with 105 strikeouts and 19 walks in 86.1 innings. That is awfully impressive for a freshman starter in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference. Unfortunately for Ginn, a draft-eligible sophomore, his 2020 season lasted only three innings. He blew out his elbow on Opening Day and required Tommy John surgery. His season was over weeks before the shutdown. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks Ginn as the 23rd best prospect in the draft class. MLB.com has him 44th. The Yankees hold the 28th overall pick. Here's a snippet of MLB's scouting report (here's video):

When healthy, Ginn usually deals at 91-95 mph and tops out at 97 with some of the best fastball life in the 2020 Draft, as his heater will run and sink and bore at various times. His wipeout slider can be just as difficult to hit, combining mid-80s velocity with two-plane depth. He also gets good downward action on his changeup, which shows flashes of becoming a plus offering ... Despite the movement on his pitches, Ginn controls and commands them well ... He's athletic but already came with durability concerns after a sore arm limited him at times during the second half of the 2019 season.

Baseball America's report says Ginn "possesses two potentially double-plus pitches" and notes he was considered a top 15 pick before his elbow gave out. The Yankees are not scared to draft pitchers with elbow problems. They took Andrew Brackman back in the day even though it was an open secret that he needed Tommy John surgery, and more recently they selected Clarke Schmidt in the first round. He had his elbow rebuilt a few weeks before the draft. If the Yankees believe in you, they'll overlook the injury. Ginn is supposedly a big spin rate guy and an analytics darling -- it's probably not a coincidence the ultra-analytic Dodgers drafted him out of high school -- which will appeal to the Yankees. Simply put, he represents an opportunity to land a top 15-ish talent with the 28th pick. As far as we know, the Yankees will have only three picks and $3.7M in bonus pool money this year. Whatever leverage Ginn gained by being a draft-eligible sophomore is negated by the elbow surgery, and the latest rumor says he'll sign this year rather than return to school and try to rebuild stock next spring, and enter the 2021 draft. That removes some of the mystery. This draft class is deep in pitching and teams with early first round picks figure to take healthy players. The Nationals hold the 22nd overall pick and they have a history of selecting injured top talents who fall into their laps (Lucas Giolito and Erick Fedde most notably). If they pass on Ginn, there's a pretty good chance he'll still be on the board for the Yankees and the 28th pick. 

4. Remembering a random Yankee: DeWayne Wise. I'm clearing out the backlog of random Yankee requests and next up is Wise.  We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Kevin Elster, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Brandon Knight, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Mark Reynolds, and Kerry Wood. The Yankees signed Wise to a minor league contract in Dec. 2011 and he opened 2012 with Triple-A Scranton. He had a huge April with the RailRiders (.329/.400/.579 and 173 wRC+) and was called up to the Bronx in early-May. Nick Swisher was nursing a sore hamstring and Brett Gardner suffered what was effectively a season-ending elbow injury making a diving catch on April 17th, which forced Raul Ibanez to play the outfield regularly. The Yankees needed an actual outfielder on the bench and Wise was the guy. He got spot starts here and there but mostly replaced Ibanez for defense in the late innings. Wise had two memorable moments with the Yankees. First, on May 22nd, he laid down a perfect bunt hit to load the bases with no outs in the fifth inning against the Royals. Here's the video. The Yankees were in the middle of a major offensive funk -- they'd hit .211/.281/.348 as a team and scored 15 runs in their previous seven games -- and Wise's bunt led to the go-ahead rally and eventually a win. The win improved the Yankees to 22-21 and they won 35 of their next 48 games. It was the bunt that turned the season around and the birth of one of RAB's longest running inside jokes. Secondly, on June 26th, Wise was involved in one of my favorite dumb plays ever. He drifted toward the left field wall chasing after a foul popup, got his glove on the ball and flipped into the stands, and made the catch. Except he didn't make the catch. The ball clanked in and out of his glove. It was clear as day. Didn't even have the ball in his glove when he emerged from the stands. It wasn't one of those "he picked it up before anyone noticed" situations. The ball rolled away and a fan picked it up a few seats away. The umps ruled Wise made the catch anyway. Here's the video and here's a screen grab:

The play was inconsequential to the outcome of the game but it was all so silly. Replays showed Wise obviously did not catch the ball, and the fact he came out of the stands with no ball in his glove and the umpires still called it an out only makes it that much more ridiculous. Great moments in workplace indifference. No one wanted to be there less than the umps. Anyway, Wise had a nice little two-week run in late-June and early-July, going 9-for-18 with a double, a triple, and three homers, but it wasn't enough to save his job. The Yankees acquired Ichiro Suzuki at the trade deadline and Wise was released to clear a roster spot. He hit .262/.286/.492 (106 wRC+) in 56 games but only 63 plate appearances as a Yankee. Wise hooked on with the White Sox soon thereafter and spent more time with them in 2013. That 2013 season was his last season in baseball. He hasn't played since. Wise was a true journeyman, playing in parts of 11 big league seasons with six different teams, but only once did he play in as many as 100 games in a single season. That was the 2012 season with the Yankees and White Sox.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Christopher asks: Contract status aside, would you rather have Gleyber Torres or Rafael Devers for the next five years?

Torres hit .278/.337/.535 (125 wRC+) with 38 home runs and +3.6 WAR last season. Devers, who is only seven weeks older than Gleyber, hit .311/.361/.555 (132 wRC+) with 32 homers and +5.9 WAR. He had a lower strikeout rate than Torres (17.0% to 21.4%) and, depending on your metric of choice, was better in the field too (-10 DRS and +2.7 UZR to -13 DRS and -4.2 UZR). Devers is a problem. He's very, very good.

Gleyber tweaked his plate discipline in all the right ways last year (swung at fewer pitches out of the zone and more pitches in the zone) and I expect his strikeout rate to continue to decline. He went from 25.2% strikeouts in 2018 to 21.4% in 2019 and it was real, tangible improvement. Fenway Park means Devers, an aggressive hitter who swings at everything, will likely always hit for a better average, though I bet their on-base and power production will be similar.

This debate may come down to defense. There are reasons to believe Devers' defensive improvement is real and reasons to believe Gleyber's defense is about to improve (he's moving to his natural position). The eye test tells me Torres has much better defensive tools (hands, feet, instincts, etc.) plus he plays a more difficult position. I believe they'll be comparable hitters, and I think Torres will be the better defender at a more premium position, and thus the better player going forward. He's my pick.

For what it's worth, three-year ZiPS projections have Torres at +15.5 WAR from 2020-22 and Devers at +12.7 WAR. The system also has Torres as the better hitter (.381 wOBA vs. .366 wOBA). I think ZiPS is underselling Devers a bit, but, even with similar offense, give me the guy the who I think will be a good defensive shortstop over even an improved defensive third baseman. They're both excellent though. I'd be happy with either.

Michael asks: This season was supposed to be one where Garcia and Schmidt continued their development and increased their innings in the minors to audition for a full-time role in the Yankees 2021 rotation. Will a reduced season and likely loss of the entire minor league season decrease their chances while increasing the likelihood the Yankees will need to look externally while also increasing the odds Tanaka, Paxton and Happ will return, particularly the two former?

Yes, a shortened season makes it less likely Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt will be 2021 rotation options simply because they will have less time to prove themselves in 2020, and also less time to stretch out their innings. Even if they're on an expanded roster -- I assume they would be -- they still may go into next season as largely unproven young pitchers who haven't thrown more than, say, 120 innings in a season.

The Yankees are very willing to give young players opportunities these days. They put Luis Severino in the rotation rather than trade for help in 2015. They relied on Domingo German last year. Those guys were not Plan A though. The Yankees went into the season with a full rotation and turned to them only after a need arose. It's really hard for me to see Garcia and Schmidt in the 2021 Opening Day rotation. Not with the Yankees in World Series or bust mode.

Because of that, I think the Yankees will pursue new contracts with James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka this year. The back surgery figures to take a bite out of Paxton's value and Tanaka, I mean, he's closing in on legacy Yankee status. It just works. Re-signing him seems like a no-brainer. Plus, the free agent market will be depressed, so veteran starters could come at a lower price than usual. That'll help the Yankees fill out their rotation rather than rely on Garcia and Schmidt out of the gate.

Chris asks:  I realize this is extremely out there of an idea but assuming there is no minor league season, do you think it would be crazy to let prospects who could use the at bats/playing time join MLB clubs? I understand rules would have to be established (roster extension both 40 man and MLB rosters, service time) but we’re also talking about 10 team divisions so let’s pretend. Wouldn’t it be crazy to see Jasson Dominguez getting regular season ABs? You’d basically play the entire season with September rosters.

Crazy? No. Ill-advised? Yes. The circumstances don't make Dominguez more MLB ready. He has never seen anything like a Ken Giles slider or a John Means changeup or a Blake Snell curveball. Even if you save his at-bats for blowouts against other prospects, the playing time will be infrequent. Ultimately, MLB still has an obligation to put out the best possible product, and for the Yankees, the goal in 2020 is winning, not developing prospects.

I think Dominguez will be fine this year. He's so young and any sort of complex ball is totally appropriate for him. The Low-A and High-A kids are in the worst spot. They're too good for a rookie ball style setup but not good enough for MLB action. Dominguez in complex ball is fine. Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt in MLB is fine. Not ideal, but fine. Estevan Florial and Luis Medina though? They fit in neither place. They may be force fed MLB playing time because there is nothing else going on, even though it won't necessarily be the best thing for them developmentally.

The backbone of player development is putting players in positions to succeed. You want them to be challenged but not overwhelmed, and not have the game come so easy that it's a farce. Garcia and Schmidt are ready for the MLB challenge. Dominguez is absolutely not, as talented as he is. Florial and Medina aren't either, I don't think, but the circumstances may force them into situations they're not ready for. It's unfortunate.

Alex asks: Is there any way for amateurs to avoid the draconian bonus limits that are being proposed and become a true free agent? For example, could an undrafted college player go to the independent leagues for a year, and then be able to sign for whatever bonus they wanted? Back in the day JD Drew refused to sign and spent a year with the St. Paul Saints, but then he was drafted again, so I'm not sure if that would work.  

Not really. Once you exhaust your college eligibility, you're an undrafted free agent, and once you're an undrafted free agent, you're always an undrafted free agent. Going to an independent league doesn't help. Moving to another country, renouncing your citizenship, and becoming an international amateur free agent is an option, but yeah, no one's doing that.

Your best bet is playing in Asia and that's much easier said than done. A team in Asia has to want to sign you, and even then you have to deal with the foreign player roster limits. There are only so many roster spots available. It seems the best case scenario is a Carter Stewart situation, and he was a top 10 draft pick. Is any team in Asia doing that for an undrafted free agent? Probably not, no.

MLB did a pretty good job closing draft loopholes following the 1996 loophole fiasco -- the fact four high draft picks became free agents and signed for nearly $30M combined way back in 1996, including two players getting $10M+ each, tells you how much teams value talented young players -- so the players are pretty screwed. They're locked into the current system with basically zero alternatives. 

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)