April 10th, 2020: 50-Man Roster, Cole, 2020 Draft, Mailbag

In an alternate universe, the Yankees will open their regularly scheduled West Coast trip in Oakland later tonight. In reality, we've already lost 14 Yankees games to the shutdown and it will be many more than that when it's all said and done. I hope you're all staying safe and thanks as always for your support. Let's get to today's thoughts.

1. Building a 50-man roster. Earlier this week we caught wind of MLB's Arizona plan, and while it sounds improbable and impractical, Rob Manfred and his people wouldn't be doing their jobs if they didn't consider various regular season scenarios. The Arizona plan is just part of that process. According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd), some of the regular season scenarios under consideration involve using a 50-man roster (!). From Rosenthal:

By the time baseball would resume, testing should be readily available, some federal officials say. Players would undergo regular testing to ensure they are not infected during an initial quarantine period, then begin an abbreviated spring training and continue with regular testing thereafter. The union and MLB are discussing the expansion of rosters to as many as 50 players to ensure the easy availability of substitutes, giving teams additional flexibility not only if players became ill, but also for what likely would be a compressed schedule. Protecting players from the virus, however, might be less difficult than protecting older managers and umpires, who might be more vulnerable. 

Not loo long ago we heard teams are expected to have 29-man rosters come Opening Day and that feels like the bare minimum. A 50-man roster sounds insane, and it kinda is, but when you consider how unlikely it is we'll have anything resembling a normal minor league season this year, it makes sense. A 50-man roster means teams would essentially carry their Triple-A roster around with them. I don't know how the 40-man roster would work in that scenario -- does it permanently become a 50-man roster? is there only a temporary one-year expansion? -- and I can't imagine all 50 players would be active each game, but the players would be readily available should there be injuries or performance issues or illness. Anyway, I learned long ago to never look gift content in the mouth, so I figured we could build the Yankees' 50-man Opening Day roster. I'm going to assume 26 pitchers and 24 position players, the equivalent of a three-man bench and eight-man bullpen times two, because protecting arms figures to be the priority. I'm also going to disregard 40-man roster status seeing how we have no idea how that would work. Also, I'm going to assume every player will be healthy except Tommy John surgery rehabbers Luis Severino and Adam Warren. Players guys who are currently injured may be ready when the season begins, though chances are other players will get hurt in Spring Training 2.0, because that's how the Yankees roll. Let's just assume everyone is healthy except the two guys we know will miss the season. Oh, and Domingo German will remain suspended, because that's what will actually happen. Let's get to the 50-man roster.

Locks (23 players)

• Position Players (12): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Kyle Higashioka, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Tauchman, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit
• Pitchers (11): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Tommy Kahnle, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka

Nearly half our 50-man roster is occupied by players who will unquestionably not only make the Opening Day roster if healthy, but play significant roles. Those are your starting nine position players, three primary reserves, five-man rotation, and six core relievers. Any questions? No? Good. Let's move on.

Bubble Candidates Who Come Locks (8 players)

• Position Players (4): Thairo Estrada, Mike Ford, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade
• Pitchers (4): Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Brooke Kriske, Jonathan Loaisiga

These players are all on the 40-man roster and were competing for Opening Day roster spots in Spring Training, with some having a clearer path than others. The 50-man roster means they all have a clear path now. They'll make the roster. We're up 31 total players: 16 position players and 15 pitchers. Eight position player spots and 11 pitcher spots remain.

NRIs Who Become Locks (12 players)

• Position Players (5): Zack Granite, Rosell Herrera, Kyle Holder, Chris Iannetta, Erik Kratz
• Pitchers (7): Luis Avilan, Chad Bettis, David Hale, Tyler Lyons, Dan Otero, Nick Tropeano, Tony Zych

These 12 players were in Spring Training as non-roster invitees and were trying to wiggle their way onto the Opening Day roster. Iannetta and Kratz were competing with Higashioka for the backup catcher's job, in theory. Herrera had the inside track on the last bench spot once guys started getting hurt. The pitchers were all competing for bullpen spots (and in some cases the vacant fifth starter's spot) except maybe Zych, who is coming back from major shoulder injuries and pitched in his first game since 2017 the day the shutdown was announced. Since we're assuming everyone will be healthy except Severino and Warren, Zych is on the roster. Is four catchers overkill? I don't think so. For starters, we have a 50-man roster, so it's not like space is an issue. Secondly, injuries happen, especially at the catcher position, and if they end up playing regular doubleheaders in the Arizona heat or something wild like that, four catchers will be a necessity. We are up to 43 total players with 21 position players and 22 pitchers. Still three position player spots and four pitcher spots to fill.

The Last Few Bench Players (3 players)

• Make the team (3): Trey Amburgey, Hoy Jun Park, Josh Thole
• Outside looking in: Mandy Alvarez, Estevan Florial, Chris Gittens, Wynston Sawyer, Zack Zehner

Florial is on the 40-man roster, but is he MLB ready? Hardly. Does it even matter at the point though? I'm not sure. We're talking about 50-man rosters here, so a lot of innings will go to Triple-A and Double-A caliber arms, which could help Florial. The alternative is what, playing sim games in Tampa? Maybe? My hunch is the Yankees would keep Florial on the minor league side, whatever that looks like, and roll with Amburgey as the extra outfielder because he's had Triple-A success and is more likely to help the Yankees win, which is still the top priority. Park gets the nod over Alvarez because he play the middle infield, he's a lefty hitter, and he can run, which could come in handy. Neither guy is likely to hit much, so we're trying to capture as many useful skills as possible, and Park has more of them in his versatility, his glove, and his legs. As for Thole, five catchers may be one too many, but I don't think it's unreasonable given the condensed schedule and potential to play regularly in the Arizona heat. Those factors may lead to Sanchez getting a bunch of DH at-bats, plus Higashioka has an injury history and both Iannetta (37) and Kratz (39) are up there in age, especially for a catcher. The alternative to Thole would be what, Gittens, a first base only guy with no defensive value? I think it is far more likely the Yankees would need a fifth catcher over a fifth first baseman (Andujar, Ford, LeMahieu, and Voit are ahead of Gittens on the first base depth chart), so Thole it is. He joins Amburgey and Park on our bench to round out our 24-man position player group. Now for the pitchers.

The Last Few Pitchers (4 players)

• Make the team (4): Deivi Garcia, Mike King, Nick Nelson, Clarke Schmidt
• Outside looking in: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, Roansy Contreras, Luis Gil, Trevor Lane, Luis Medina, Kaleb Ort, Adonis Rosa, Alex Vizcaino, Miguel Yajure

As unlikely as it would've been Garcia, King, and Schmidt all had a path to the Opening Day roster prior to the shutdown. Schmidt looked fantastic during Grapefruit League play and was forcing a conversation about his MLB readiness. Garcia struggled a bit in camp, but he is the organization's top pitching prospect, and it's not hard to see him having an impact as a high-strikeout reliever this year (with the potential to start as well). King pitched in the big leagues last year and, to me, is an obvious candidate for a 50-man roster spot seeing how he can start or relieve, and generally chew up innings. Nelson gets our 26th pitcher spot and 50th roster spot over all those other pitchers almost by default. Abreu, Contreras, Gil, Medina, Vizcaino, and Yajure are all young prospects with zero Triple-A time -- Abreu is the only one with more than three week's worth of Double-A innings under his belt -- and Acevedo is a reclamation project. He was so bad last year he cleared waivers and got released. Those guys are not yet MLB ready. I think that matters even with a 50-man roster because again, winning is the priority, not prospect watching. Nelson has had success in Double-A and has Triple-A experience, and the fact he is a starter who can go multiple innings gives him the nod over Lane and Ort, two short relievers. I should note everyone listed in the "outside looking in" section here did pitch in Grapefruit League games prior to the shutdown. I didn't pick them at random. They saw Grapefruit League action and that puts them on the 50-man roster radar. Now that we have our last four pitchers, here is our 50-man roster:

Fifteen depth arms and somehow only two lefties. Maybe that gives someone like Lane the edge over Nelson for the final pitching spot? Possible, though it's more likely Zych is not ready to pitch come Opening Day, and Lane sneaks onto the roster that way. Not including the five starters, I count nine pitchers who could start or at least provide bulk innings following an opener: Bettis, Cessa, Garcia, Hale, King, Loaisiga, Nelson, Schmidt, and Tropeano. That should be plenty. All things considered, that's pretty good depth. Frazier is a no-doubt big leaguer in my mind and he is at best the third outfield option on the bench. Ford deserves at-bats given what he did last year (and the projections), yet he's part of the B-team. Legitimate big leaguers like Avilan, Otero, and Tropeano are among the depth arms -- they're not impact guys, but they are MLB caliber pitchers, and they're no higher than 11th on the pitching depth chart -- as are exciting youngsters like Deivi, Loaisiga, and Schmidt. Will we see a 50-man roster when the season begins? I highly doubt it, but it is apparently on the table, and this is the 50-man roster the Yankees could put together come Opening Day. Would be kinda fun, no? "Hopefully we’re able to reach our potential, not just because of our top 10, 15, 20 guys, but because of the depth of our club through 26 and even beyond that, to 30, 35 guys," Aaron Boone told Steve Serby back in February.

2. Cole's value during a shortened season. Last week I answered a mailbag question about losing Gerrit Cole's age 29 season to the shutdown, which would obviously suck, but does not necessarily change how I would evaluate the contract. The Yankees should still be a legitimate World Series contender next year and Cole will still be in his prime, and winning in the short-term is the clear priority. Losing his age 29 season to poor performance or injury would be a tougher pill to swallow, I think. With the pandemic, it's something every team is dealing with it. It's just unfortunate. One thing I did not mention when I answered that question (mostly because it didn't occur to me at the time) is that Cole's value this year would be increased with a shortened season. The fewer games you play, the more likely it is small sample size noise and general baseball randomness impacts the standings. I linked to this not too long ago but it's worth revisiting: Dan Szymborski generated ZiPS postseason odds for regular seasons of various length. Here's what it says about the Yankees:

In an 81-game season, New York's division title odds drop roughly a third. The field would be favored over the Yankees in the AL East in a 110-game season -- the Rays have the second best odds at 34.6% in that scenario, but the other four AL East teams combine for 51.3% division title odds -- and the club's World Series championship odds drop roughly a third from a 162-game season to an 81-game season. That decline from 12.7% to 8.1% is huge. Those 8.1% odds are still really good -- only the Dodgers have better World Series odds in an 81-game season (9.8%) -- but they're not 12.7%. The fewer games they play this year, the less likely it is the Yankees win the AL East, and thus the less likely it is the Yankees win the World Series. The Yankees signed Cole to get them over the hump in October and, in the end, a championship(s) will determine whether the signing was a success or failure. That's just the way it is. In a shortened season though, with so much noise potentially at play, Cole becomes that much more valuable because he is an elite player who can help swing the balance of the power in a division race. It took 94 wins to secure the second AL Wild Card spot last year. That prorates to 47 wins in an 81-game season, so if you start 5-8 like the Yankees did last year, you'd have to go 42-26 the rest of the way to get to 47 wins, or a 100-win pace during a 162-game season. Doable? Absolutely, but difficult. Losing streaks or a two-week slump are much more dangerous in a shortened season and Cole is a stopper, someone who can end losing streaks and extend winning streaks. An 81-game season may turn a +7 WAR player into a +3.5 WAR player, but that +3.5 WAR comes in higher leverage games because each win carries greater weight in the final standings, if that makes sense. Did the Yankees need to sign Cole to win the AL East this year? Eh, maybe, but they won it easily without him last year, and having Cole makes them much more likely to repeat. They signed him to win the World Series, clearly, and winning the division is a step toward that goal. Because winning the division will be that much more difficult in a shortened season, Cole's value to the Yankees in the regular season this year will be greater than initially expected. He's gone from what we almost could have considered a regular season luxury to a necessity and a division race changer. The fewer games they play this year, the more important elite players like Cole (and Mookie Betts and Anthony Rendon) become. They're the players most likely to change the complexion of a postseason race.

3. 2020 draft prospect: Nick Bitsko. We don't know when the 2020 amateur draft will take place just yet -- MLB can hold it anytime between June 10th and July 20th -- but there will be a draft this year, and I'm gonna break down potential Yankees targets the next few weeks. We've already covered Pete Crow-Armstrong. Bitsko is a high school right-hander from Doylestown, Pennsylvania, which is between Allentown and Trenton. He was originally expected to enter the 2021 draft, but he is graduating a year early and will be draft-eligible as a 17-year-old this summer. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks Bitsko as the 19th best prospect in the draft class while MLB.com has him 9th. The Yankees hold the 28th pick. Here is a snippet of MLB's free scouting report (here's video):

Bitsko is 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, with plenty of projection and now stuff. He stood out particularly at the East Coast Pro Showcase over the summer, but he has shown consistent ability at every stop. Bitsko was up to 96-97 mph at East Coast Pro, with all fastballs in the 92- to 96-mph range. He combines it with a hard breaking ball that shows plus shape, thrown in the 78- to 82-mph range to get a lot of swings and misses. While he doesn't throw it as much, he does have solid feel for a changeup. Bitsko isn't pure power, either, showing the ability to throw all three pitches for strikes with a chance for future plus command.

Bitsko, maybe moreso than any other 2020 draft prospect, will be hurt by the shutdown. His high school did not play any games prior to the shutdown and it was announced he will graduate early in January. Teams came into 2020 expecting to have two high school seasons plus summer showcases to evaluate him. Instead, they were going to have to bear down on him this spring, and then they couldn't do that because of the pandemic. Bitsko has been a regular in showcase events over the years, so he's hardly an unknown, but he was a high school sophomore the last time teams saw him. In a five-round draft with small bonus pools -- the Yankees will have only three picks and a $3.7M bonus pool this summer -- I could see clubs passing on him and going for a player they've scouted more extensively and know a little better. The Yankees might -- might -- be a little more willing to swing for the fences because this is going to be a weak draft haul no matter what given the lack of picks. It's rare for a player this talented to be available at the end of the first round and Bitsko's lack of exposure this spring could move him down draft boards. If the Yankees are comfortable they can buy him away from the University of Virginia, even if it means punting on their other two picks to reallocate bonus pool money, they could shoot for the moon with Bitsko in this year's draft.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Colter Bean. Up next in our series remembering random Yankees is the charter member of the "free [random minor leaguer]!" movement. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Oscar Azocar, Erick Almonte, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Brandon Knight, and Blake Parker. The Yankees signed Bean as an undrafted free agent out of Auburn in May 2000 and he was excellent throughout his minor league career. The righty reliever pitched to a 2.38 ERA with a 31.1% strikeout rate in 272 innings at three levels from 2001-04, which was enough for the Red Sox to take a shot on him in the 2003 Rule 5 Draft, though he was returned in Spring Training. With the Yankees cycling through a small army of has-beens and never-wases in middle relief those years, there was a loud segment of Yankees fans who wanted Bean to get an opportunity. They finally called him up in April 2005 and, after allowing a run in two innings against the Angels, he was sent back down and remained with Triple-A Columbus the rest of the year. Not even a September call-up. More minor league excellence followed in 2006 -- Bean, then 29, had a 2.65 ERA with a 30.8% strikeout rate in 88.1 Triple-A innings that year -- but again, he received only a short call-up, making two one-inning appearances in May. Another brief call-up followed in 2007 (four runs in three innings), except this time Bean did not pitch well in Triple-A. He had a 5.95 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate that summer. His days as an effective Triple-A reliever were over at age 30. His Yankees career (and big league career) consisted of six appearances scattered across three seasons: 7 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 9 BB, 5 K. Joe Torre pulled Bean in the middle of an at-bat in what proved to be his final MLB appearance. Among the 640 men to pitch in at least five games as a Yankee, only two have a higher walk rate than Bean:

1. Steve Adkins: 25.2%
2. Jesse Orosco: 25.0%
3. Colter Bean: 23.7%
4. Oscar Roettger: 21.9%
5. John Wyatt: 21.4%

As good as the minor league numbers were from 2001-06, the Yankees never gave Bean an extended opportunity because he was a soft-tossing righty with a funky sidearm delivery. Essentially an old school lefty specialist but from the right side. That works in the minors, where hitters are impatient and many will swing at anything. In the big leagues though? It rarely works. Guys like Chad Bradford and Brad Ziegler are outliers. Fans saw the numbers and saw someone who could help. The Yankees saw the stuff and delivery and said trust us, we know what we're doing. "I think I don’t look good in a uniform. I’m not the model baseball player. As far as an offensive lineman, maybe. But my whole theory to that is -- I understand that -- you don’t want to put a product out there that isn’t looking good. But at the same breath, if a guy’s doing the job, he’s doing the job," the 6-foot-6, 255-pound Bean told Tyler Kepner in 2007. The Yankees dropped Bean from the 40-man roster after the 2007 season -- he became (and still is) the Columbus Clippers all-time leader in pitching appearances (215) thanks to all that time in Triple-A -- and he split 2008 between Mexico and Double-A with the Rays, and that was it. He never pitched again. From stats that suggested he could be the next great Yankees reliever -- a fan even built the website FreeColterBean.com to promote him -- to out of the game in about three years. These days Bean is a vice president for a risk management and insurance consulting firm in Alabama.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Joel Sherman reports MLB has kicked around the idea of holding a Home Run Derby at some point during the shutdown to entertain fans and keep baseball relevant. The NBA is planning a HORSE contest for the same reasons. I like the Home Run Derby idea though the logistics may be tough. Even with no fans in the seats, MLB has to figure out how to keep everyone safe from the pandemic, and that includes camera people and broadcasters and grounds crew, not just the players. Also, players jumping straight from what amount to offseason workouts into a Home Run Derby could be dangerous. Obliques and shoulders would be at risk. I like the idea though and hope MLB can find a way to make it safely happen ... MLB has launched an MLB The Show online league to benefit the Boys & Girls Club. There is one player from each team -- Tommy Kahnle is representing the Yankees -- and the games will be streamed on Twitch and YouTube so fans can watch and interact. Not my cup of tea but it's a good idea and it's for a good cause. I suspect (and hope) we'll see more ideas like this pop up during the shutdown to keep fans engaged. Especially younger fans ... Ben Badler (subs. req'd) released his list of the top 25 prospects for the 2020-21 international signing period earlier this week and the Yankees are connected to two: SS Hanser Montero (No. 23) and C Jesus Galiz (No. 25). I wrote about those two (plus a third prospect connected to the Yankees) recently. Assuming the bonus pools hold steady at last year's level like the draft, the Yankees will have $4,398,300 to work with during the upcoming international signing period. That's their original $5,398,300 pool minus the $1M they forfeited to sign Gerrit Cole. Teams can not trade for extra bonus pool space this signing period, so that's the pool. It's not much, which is why the Yankees are not connected to any of the top international prospects. That said, the Yankees always do well with lower profile prospects in Latin America. Ten of my top 30 prospects signed for $300,000 or less, including five who signed for five figures. I trust the Yankees will unearth more hidden gems this signing period ... And finally, Forbes released their annual MLB franchise valuations yesterday, and of course the Yankees sit in the top spot. The franchise is valued at $5 billion, up from $4.6 billion last year, with $683M in revenue in 2019. The team had only $35M in operating income last year, but, based on how Forbes has compiled these valuations in the past, that does not include YES Network revenue. That $35M covers just the team itself, so yeah. The Dodgers are a distant second with a $3.4 billion franchise valuation. The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 12. The Marlins, at $980M, are the only team valued at less than $1 billion. Every team is going to take a financial hit during the shutdown, but owning an MLB franchise is good work if you can get it. The revenue sharing system all but guarantees you'll make a ton of money.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Ray asks: As much as I want to see baseball I personally believe we’re not going to have a season this year (Hope I’m wrong!) but if that’s the case, which three (or whatever number you want) Yankees will be hurt the most by not having a season? Paxton going into his FA year coming off an injury? DJ, one year older and further removed from a career year? Who say you?

Two players immediately jumped to mind: James Paxton and Giancarlo Stanton. Paxton is not only an impending free agent, he's an impending free agent who won't be able to show teams he's healthy and productive following back surgery. That'll hurt his market. Starting pitching is always in demand, so Paxton will get signed, but it might be a one-year prove yourself deal rather than a three or four-year contract at $15M+ per year.

Stanton has $208M coming to him through 2027, so he's fine in that regard, but a canceled season would mean back-to-back lost peak seasons. Injuries limited him to 18 games last year, his age 29 season, and his age 30 season would be wiped out by the pandemic. That could cost him a shot at 500 homers (he's at 308) and thus a shot at the Hall of Fame. More importantly, I can't imagine it would be easy to regain rhythm and timing at the plate after two lost years.

Brett Gardner could lose his last productive season to the pandemic. Miguel Andujar would be in the same boat as Stanton next year in that he'd have to get back on track at the plate after two lost seasons. Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela are losing an opportunity to show they aren't flukes. Aroldis Chapman losing a peak year may hurt his Hall of Fame candidacy. Lots of Yankees would be hurt by a canceled season, but especially Paxton and Stanton.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Matthew asks: MLB has discussed playing games with no fans. If this were to occur I think it would be great for them to play at the Field of Dreams site and possibly Cooperstown as well. If no fans are present home field would not mean much, so maybe the teams can play a series at each site? Also playing in front of a huge empty stadium does not look great on tv so small fields might make that aspect of no fans more palatable. What do you think?

MLB has already canceled all the overseas events they had scheduled for this season (London Series, Puerto Rico games, etc.), and I imagine it's only a matter of time until the Field of Dreams Game gets the axe too. The Yankees are scheduled to play the White Sox in Iowa on Aug. 13th, but they still have to build the ballpark, and I'm not sure that'll be possible during (or after) the pandemic. The Field of Dreams Game figures to be pushed back to 2021.

As for the question, I like the idea. Doubleday Field in Cooperstown is an obvious spot for a neutral site game (296 feet to left field!). The Los Angeles Coliseum might work too. Maybe they could do games in Triple-A stadiums as a show of good faith to help those franchises? It will certainly be weird with no fans in the ballpark no matter where they play, but neutral sites would liven things up a bit. Would help with marketing and promotion and whatnot.

The question is whether this is at all feasible. The parks and those cities have to be deemed safe, MLB has to arrange safe travel and lodging, and the players have to approve it as well. They might not want to travel to play games in minor league caliber stadiums. It is a good idea though. Just maybe not a feasible one. There's no shot at a normal season now. Might as well make the most of it and experiment with different things.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)