March 20th, 2020: Stanton, Sanchez, Tanaka, Shutdown, Draft, International Free Agents, Mailbag

Picked up a new show this week: The Outsider (HBO). Bit of a slow burn but it's really good. If you're looking for stuff to binge while remaining socially distant and sans baseball, television guru Alan Sepinwall has you covered. Now let's get to today's thoughts. (FYI: I turned my All-Star Opening Day idea into a CBS post.)

1. The latest from Tampa. I'm going to start today's post with some actual baseball news. Sound good? I think we all need it. First and foremost, Giancarlo Stanton has started baseball activities as he works his way back from his calf strain. He took batting practice, including full batting practice on the field, earlier this week. "He looks good. He did some stuff inside and then we took a couple of rounds on the field. (We're) trying to space ourselves out, not touching the balls and all kinds of stuff,” hitting coach Marcus Thames told Bryan Hoch. Stanton started running sometime last week (or the week before) and I'm not sure whether he's done any outfield work, but there's no reason to push it now. Take it slow and make sure the calf is healed up during the shutdown. Secondly, Gary Sanchez is doing better. He came down with the flu early last week -- Sanchez tested positive for the flu and wasn't given a COVID-19 test because apparently you can't have both at the same time (insert obligatory "Sanchez can't even catch the coronavirus" joke here) -- and was due to see the doctor again soon. “I know he is feeling a lot better. Hopefully, that is encouraging and he is scheduled to see the doctor (last Friday),” Aaron Boone told Ken Davidoff and George King. Gary was learning a new catching stance this spring, and while he won't be able to work on it in games during the shutdown, he can work on it in the bullpen with a pitching machine. Not ideal, but it's better than nothing. Third, Masahiro Tanaka threw a bullpen session this past weekend and said he will continue to throw during the shutdown, but he's going to scale back a bit and not build up his pitch count. I imagine lots of guys around the league will do the same thing. “I don’t know (how to prepare for the season when we don't know when the season will start) and I don’t think anybody does. Obviously, we’re experiencing something like this for the first time. I’ll just back down a little bit. That might change as well," Tanaka told Dan Martin. Fourth, here is a not complete list of Yankees still in Tampa: Stanton, Tanaka, Miguel Andujar, Mike Ford, Clint Frazier, J.A. Happ, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Luis Severino, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade, and Brian Cashman. Cashman said he's staying in Tampa for the duration of the shutdown. Happ makes his offseason home nearby and LeMahieu said he's staying in Tampa because there's nowhere to work out near his offseason home in Michigan. "All the gyms in Michigan are closed and it is cold. I think this is the best place to be right now," he told King. Severino is still very early in his Tommy John surgery rehab -- he had his surgery Feb. 27th, so he's only three weeks out -- though at this point he's probably started elbow movements and things like that. I don't know that for sure, I'm just speculating based on the typical elbow reconstruction rehab timeline. And fifth, here is hardly complete list of Yankees who have left Tampa: Boone and Jonathan Loaisiga. Surely there are others, but that's all I know right now. Boone returned home to Connecticut earlier this week and Loaisiga is back home in Nicaragua, according to Levi Luna. Weird times, man. “It's weird. I have to wear latex gloves and batting gloves. Just trying to stay safe, trying to listen to the health people and make sure we're doing the right thing," Thames told Hoch.

2. Yankees hurt by the shutdown. When it's all said and done, the shutdown could tangibly benefit the Yankees, though of course no one is happy with what's happening. The longer the shutdown, the more likely it is the Yankees will have their injured players (Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, James Paxton, Giancarlo Stanton) available when the season begins. There's another side to that coin though. The shutdown comes at an unfortunate time for several individual Yankees. Here are four who could be hurt professionally by the shutdown.

Miguel Andujar: Although he was only 7-for-31 (.226) during Grapefruit League play, Andujar showed he did not leave his lightning quick hands on the operating table. Look at this. That's the helicopter swing we all know and love. For him, the shutdown means two things. One, he can't get the at-bats he needs to get back up to speed at the plate after losing most of last season to shoulder surgery. Hitting in the cage or even out on the field helps to some degree. There's no substitute for live game at-bats though. And two, Andujar can't get reps in left field right now. He looked surprisingly good in the outfield during Grapefruit League play, though it was only 39 innings, and that's not nearly enough to say he'll be fine out there. The early returns were encouraging and nothing more. Andujar needs more game action in the outfield to become comfortable and competent out there. Shagging fly balls only helps so much. He's not getting those reps during the shutdown and it could affect his readiness for the season and his utility to the team.

Clint Frazier: The longer the shutdown, the more likely it is the Yankees have Hicks, Judge, and/or Stanton available when the season begins, and the less likely it is Frazier has a roster spot. Clint was having a good spring -- he went 8-for-25 (.320) with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (four) -- but, more importantly, he was working on a few things. He changed his batting stance to get on his back leg more, and he was working on his pre-pitch setup in the outfield. "I worked on some stuff in the offseason as far my pre-pitch similar to the infielders, where I have a little hop in my step before the (pitch) just to try to help create a little athleticism for me because at times, I started to feel like my feet were concreted to the ground. Just stagnant in the outfield," he told Sweeny Murti. (Mike Trout made the same adjustment a few years ago.) So not only is Frazier faced with some really good players potentially getting healthy and coming to take his job, he also can't work on his adjustments at the plate or in the field because there are no games to play. As with Andujar, batting practice and shagging fly balls only helps so much. Clint can't catch a break. He really can't. This quote from an unnamed Yankee applies to Frazier and surely many others. From Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd):

“This is a legit pandemic and the nation’s health is more important than just my baseball career,” one Yankees hitter said. “But personally, and selfishly, it’s like ... damn. This was supposed to be a big Spring Training for me. I haven’t had anything in my career work out the way I wanted it to, so I trained my butt off this offseason hoping to get an opportunity to show them what I can do. Now I’m sitting here for two weeks, then who knows what will happen after that.”

Rosell Herrera: The shutdown was announced exactly two weeks prior to the start of the regular season. Given what we knew at the time, it was very likely Herrera would be on the Opening Day roster. He was having a great spring (10-for-25) and that's important, because fringe roster guys don't make the team with bad springs, but, more than anything, Herrera was going to make the Opening Day roster because he is an actual outfielder. The Judge and Stanton (and Hicks) injuries meant the Yankees only had four healthy outfielders on the 40-man roster: Frazier, Estevan Florial, Brett Gardner, and Mike Tauchman, and Florial is not a big league option at this point in his career. Tyler Wade can play outfield in an emergency and Andujar was learning left field, but the Yankees couldn't treat them as everyday options. Not yet, anyway. Herrera is an actual outfielder (who can also play the infield) and that gave him a clear path to a bench spot and the fourth outfielder's role. As with Frazier, the longer the shutdown, the more likely it is Judge and Stanton (and Hicks) are healthy when the season begins, and the less likely it is Herrera has a spot on the roster. Andujar and Frazier are highly regarded young players who will continue getting chances going forward. For them, the shutdown is a speed bump more than a road block. For Herrera, it could mean his career. He is a 27-year-old journeyman -- the Yankees are his fifth team since 2017 -- who may not get another big league opportunity. Making the Yankees as the fourth outfielder might have been his last chance to prove himself at the highest level. Professionally, Herrera has a lot to lose during the shutdown.

Tony Zych: The Yankees signed Zych to a minor league contract last month and it was an otherwise forgettable roll of the dice. Teams take shots like that every spring. Zych had some success with the Mariners a few years ago, then injuries set in and set him back. On Instagram, Zych announced he pitched in his first spring game last Thursday, the day the shutdown was announced. It was only a minor league game on a backfield, but it was also his first game action since 2017. He'd come a very long way and waited a very long time to get back on a professional mound. Now, instead of continuing his progression and getting his career back on track, Zych has to hit pause because of the shutdown. No more game action to continue building up and no opportunity to show the Yankees (and other teams) he can help them in some capacity. It's a damn shame. We're all losing something to the pandemic, some much moreso than others, and I can't help but feel for the guys like Zych and Herrera. They may lose their roster spots and their livelihoods because baseball had to shut down.

3. Skip the draft? According to Ron Blum, MLB is considering skipping the 2020 amateur draft as a way to save money during the shutdown. J.J. Cooper followed up and said nothing is final and MLB and the MLBPA are looking at a wide array of options on pretty much everything. Skipping the draft would be a terrible idea. It's trading long-term pain for short-term gain. For starters, MLB teams spend about $400M each year on draft bonuses. That works out to a little more than $13M per team. Add in scouting expenses and teams are looking at saving roughly one year of Mike Leake's salary by skipping the draft, on average. It's not worth it. It's a lot of money in the real world but a relative drop in the bucket for a Major League franchise. The savings are not that significant. Secondly, skipping the draft would be incredibly unfair to the players. MLB would be asking draft-eligible prospects to assume another year of risk (college kid going back for his senior year, high schooler going to junior college, etc.) before beginning their pro careers. That's not fair. Many of these players are nearing a life-changing payday, and while the shutdown is not MLB's fault, teams have the means to draft and pay these players. They're going to take a financial hit and that's a burden that should be shared by MLB and the MLBPA, not passed down to amateurs. How many draft-eligible high schoolers would drop baseball because they know they can't be drafted this year, and instead pursue football because that's their best (only?) shot at a college scholarship? If the answer is even one, it's too many. Baseball should want to keep as many athletes in this sport as possible. Also, what happens to teams scheduled to pick near the top of the 2020 draft? Here are the top five picks:

1. Tigers
2. Orioles
3. Royals
4. Marlins
5. Blue Jays

Does MLB just say, "too bad, Tigers, you don't get that ultra-valuable No. 1 pick this year?" That hardly seems fair and I say that as someone who abhors tanking and thinks MLB's entire system is backwards (good teams should be rewarded, not bad teams). Maybe they could generate the 2021 draft order using combined 2019-20 standings, but even then teams are losing a year's worth of talent. The Tigers should have the No. 1 pick this year and another high pick again next year (because they're likely to stink again). Skip the draft and they only get one high pick, not two. That doesn't seem fair. That applies to every team too, not just the bad ones. I don't see how you could ask teams to skip an entire season of amateur talent acquisition. And what happens with draft pick compensation? The Yankees forfeited their second and fifth round draft picks to sign Gerrit Cole. Would the punishment carry over to 2021 (probably) or get wiped off the books (nah), and then have free agent compensation penalties from the 2020-21 offseason piled on top of that? Fortunately commissioner Rob Manfred had the foresight to say the Astros will lose their first and second round picks in the next two drafts whenever they happen as part of their punishment for the signing stealing scandal. If the 2020 draft is canceled, they'll lose picks in 2021 and 2022 instead. That part he got right. Blum says MLB could cite the national emergency and make unilateral changes (i.e. skip the draft without MLBPA approval) but I don't think it'll happen. The draft is a single best way to acquire controllable talent at well below market prices, the thing teams love more than anything else, and that's significant. I don't see them giving that up. Pushing the draft back to the offseason seems worthwhile -- that would give players a chance to play summer and fall ball (hopefully) and teams a chance to scout them -- and maybe it could even be shortened to 20 rounds (rather than 40) since clubs wouldn't have to fill out their short season rosters for July and August. Scouting has been shut down, but this year's draft-eligible players are not unknowns. Teams have been watching them for years and they have reports on them already. Maybe they won't have the best and most complete information going into the draft, certainly not compared to a typical draft year, but they'll have enough to conduct a draft and do reasonably well. MLB is going to look for ways to cut costs amid the shutdown and I get that. Skip the draft though? That ain't it. 

4. International free agent targets. Earlier this week MLB shut down all amateur scouting operations. Scouts had already been pulled off the road and (most) amateur events had already been canceled, so there's no one playing and no one to scout them anyway, but now it's official. Scouting operations are on indefinite hiatus and it's unclear whether the draft (June 10th) and international free agency (July 2nd) will take place as scheduled. Hard to see them taking place on those dates, but who knows. The thing is, international free agency is a multi-year effort, and teams lock in commitments years in advance. They scout 13 and 14-year-old kids in Latin America. Seriously. Prior to the shutdown, the Yankees were connected to several international players for the 2020-21 signing period. The most notable seems to be Dominican SS Hans Montero. From Ben Badler (subs. req'd):

(He is) a 15-year-old shortstop with a relatively balanced skill set across the board. He's an above-average runner who projects to stick at shortstop, where he has soft hands and a strong arm. He has a sound swing from the right side, hitting hard line drives with gap power that should tick up with strength gains.

Badler (subs. req'd) also reports the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican C Samuel Basallo ("physical 6-foot-3 catcher with good agility behind the plate for his size to go with a plus arm and the ability to drive the ball with impact from the left side") and Venezuelan C Jesus Galiz ("an athletic catcher who is flexible behind the plate with soft hands, good catch-and-throw skills and a high baseball IQ"). For what it's worth, FanGraphs is still putting together their international prospect rankings and their list doesn't include Basallo, Galiz, or Montero at the moment. I'm sure they'll join the rankings once FanGraphs builds out their list further. Give 'em time. The Yankees know nothing if not catchers. They are a premier catcher development organization. Within the last decade they produced three no-doubt big league backstops (Frankie Cervelli, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez), developed two good-to-great catcher trade chips (Jesus Montero, John Ryan Murphy), and there's Luis Torrens as well, who is on track for some sort of MLB career after being poached in the Rule 5 Draft. Also, 2018 signee Antonio Gomez is already exceeding expectations. Prospects don't all work out -- did Montero and Murphy flop because they left the Yankees and their catching people, or did the Yankees trade them because they had a feeling they'd flop? -- but, by and large, the Yankees know catchers, so keep Basallo and Galiz in mind. They'll be prospects to watch going forward. Last year the Yankees had a $5.4M international bonus pool, up from $5.0M the year before and $4.75M the year before that. That's a 5% to 8% increase each year. Assuming another 5% raise this year -- that is hardly a guarantee given the financial losses stemming from the shutdown, but humor me for a second -- puts the Yankees at $5.7M. Subtract out the $1M they forfeit for signing Gerrit Cole and they're at $4.7M. Each team can trade for an additional 60% of their pool, so the Yankees can max out at $7.52M or so this signing period. Doesn't sound like they're in on any premium prospects -- there's no Jasson Dominguez 2.0 coming -- but the Yankees tend to do very well internationally. The international market has long been the backbone of their farm system. Now it's just a question of when baseball will return and when international free agency (and the draft) can begin.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Erick Almonte. Our new series remembering random Yankees launched earlier this week with Aaron Guiel. Today we're going to cover Almonte, an infielder the Yankees originally signed out of the Dominican Republic in Feb. 1996. He reached the big leagues as a Sept. call-up in 2001 and, after playing so poorly in 2002 that he was demoted from Triple-A Columbus to Double-A Norwich, the Yankees asked Almonte to fill in at shortstop when Derek Jeter dislocated his shoulder in a collision with the catcher at third base on Opening Day 2003. It was panic city after the Cap'n got hurt, but Almonte went 2-for-5 with a home run in his first game, and everyone calmed down a bit. This was a guy who hit 105 homers in nearly 5,000 career minor league plate appearances, and he went deep in the first game post-Jeter. Go figure. "I'm just happy to be here, helping the team. Every time they put me in the lineup, I'm just going to go out there and have a good time,'' he told Tyler Kepner after the game. Almonte went 1-for-4 with a walk the next day, 2-for-4 the day after that, then 2-for-4 again the day after that. He went 7-for-17 (.412) in his first four games as the starting shortstop. A folk hero was born. The bat cooled down a bit after that but not too much -- Almonte went 9-for-25 (.360) during a nine-game span later in April -- and he was hitting .272/.337/.370 when Jeter returned in mid-May. Pretty good considering the league average shortstop hit .265/.322/.397 in 2003. Almonte was sent to Triple-A once Jeter returned, then he came back as a Sept. call-up. The Yankees released Almonte in Spring Training 2004 and he spent the next seven years bouncing around Triple-A, Japan, and independent leagues (Almonte played for the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2005 and the Long Island Ducks in 2006). He kept playing and you know what? Almonte got back to the big leagues with the Brewers in 2011, eight years after he filled in for Jeter. The Milwaukee stint didn't go well (3-for-29) and he spent 2012 in Triple-A and 2013 in Mexico before finally calling it a career. Almonte played over 1,300 minor league games (including 818 in Triple-A) during a career that spanned 17 seasons and took him to Japan, Mexico, and independent leagues. That's some serious sticktoitiveness. Almonte got into coaching after he retired and 2020 will be his second season managing the Peoria Chiefs (Cardinals' Low-A affiliate). 

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Earlier this week a second (unnamed) Yankees minor leaguer tested positive for COVID-19, the team announced. That was inevitable. Denny Larrondo became the first professional player to test positive for the virus this past weekend and it was naive to think it wasn't spreading through camp. Yankees minor leaguers remain quarantined in Tampa -- the Yankees are keeping them well-fed -- and there's really not much else that can be done right now. Social distancing is the only way to get this contained ... Each MLB team donated $1M to help seasonal ballpark workers who stand to lose paychecks during the shutdown. It is a noble and important cause -- several players have publicly donated money to help workers (Alex Bregman, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, George Springer) and I'm sure many others have donated behind the scenes -- and the Yankees say they plan to finalize and announce additional help for their workers soon. Good news all around ... And finally, a shortened season is a distinct possibility and that means randomness could wreak havoc on the standings. Dan Szymborski generated ZiPS postseason odds for seasons of various length earlier this week. Here are the Yankees:

• 162 games: 61.3% for AL East and 90.5% for postseason
• 140 games: 59.8% and 88.8%
• 110 games: 48.7% and 74.4%
• 81 games: 41.8% and 63.3%

The fewer games they play, the less the Yankees are favored. They'd still remain AL East favorites with an 81-game schedule -- the Rays are next with 33.1% division odds in that scenario -- but things are much more wide open. I am all for on-field chaos. A shorter season could lead to several exciting postseason races down the stretch and that would be good for the sport in general. I also think MLB would need to expand the postseason field to make things a little more fair. That's a bridge the league bigwigs will cross when it appears the shutdown is coming to an end. (For what it's worth, Adrian Wojnarowski reports the NBA Board of Governors has been alerted their season could resume before July. Whether that means with fans in the stands or empty arenas, I don't know, but that's the latest on a potential timeline for the return of sports.)

Mailbag Question of the Week

Mikey asks: We now know that the earliest the MLB season could start is mid-May (and probably later). But when is the latest it could possibly start and still leave us with a reasonable facsimile of a season? Is August 1st a cut-off for a 60ish game season that leads to your expanded post-season proposal?

I am confident MLB will do everything possible to play games this season and they should. They'll want to make money, of course, but the nation could use it as well. There will be a big healing process when this is all over and baseball can help everyone get through it. It did after Sept. 11th. We'll have baseball this year. I don't know when, but I bet we do.

I think 60-ish games is the fewest MLB could play and have a respectable season. There's already chatter about playing neutral site games and pushing the postseason back into November (and December?). Given that, I could see Sept. 1st being the Opening Day cutoff. MLB could do something like this:

• August: Spring Training 2.0 (two weeks? three weeks? more? less?) 
• September and October: 60-ish game regular season
• November (and December?): Postseason

I can see it now: Yankees vs. Dodgers in the World Series at Minute Maid Park two weeks before Christmas. In all seriousness, what I've presented above is probably MLB's worst case scenario. I'm not sure they could start the season any later or play any fewer games and maintain competitive integrity. You risk making a farce of things after that. Then again, who cares? Baseball is the entertainment business and we'll need it. If MLB was ever going to experiment with something kooky, this is the year to do it.

(Pushing the postseason into December would make me worry about injury risk. Could MLB expect players to report to Spring Training in mid-February after such a short offseason? Maybe it won't be a big deal since they're playing so few games in 2020. What happens when next September rolls around and players feel like they've been playing non-stop the last 12 months though?)

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Dan asks: I understand every manager is going through this Coronavirus but given what has happened to Aaron Boone’s tenure thus far the Yankees manager he has more than guaranteed an extension and a good one? '18 was meh, first season. '19 not only did he learn from his mistakes the team prospered while moving forward with a broken roster. Thus far we haven’t seen much of him besides the beginning of spring training but the way he guides this team through this I’m sure will equate to '19/'20. Thoughts?

Yeah, I think an Aaron Boone extension is all but guaranteed at this point. I wrote about the possibility back in October. He's the first manager in history to lead his team to back-to-back 100-win seasons in his first two years, and 2020 is the final guaranteed year on his contract. This offseason would have been a perfectly reasonable time to ask for an extension, and maybe Boone did and we just don't know about it.

The Yankees tend to let contracts expire before negotiating new ones. They've done that every time Brian Cashman's contract has expired and they did it every time Joe Girardi's contract expired. It's not just players who get held to that standard. Boone's contract includes a club option for 2021 and that'll get picked up. Hard to think anything could happen on the field in 2020 that will cost him his job given the circumstances.

Playing out this season, then ripping up the option and giving Boone a new three-year deal is a possible outcome. Girardi worked on two three-year deals before getting four years in what proved to be his final contract with the Yankees. Maybe the Yankees pick up the option and let 2021 play out before making any decisions. I think an extension is inevitable. Boone has grown a lot in a short period of time and the Yankees love him.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Bob asks: How will the delay of the 2020 season and suspension affect the Yankees control of Domingo German's services?

I didn't include German earlier in the "Yankees hurt by the shutdown" blurb because he has no one to blame for his current situation but himself. Rosell Herrera potentially losing an Opening Day roster spot because guys get healthy during the shutdown isn't his fault but it costs him. German is suspended because he did something to get suspended.

Brian Cashman confirmed German's suspension -- he still has 63 games to serve on his 81-game suspension -- resumes when the season resumes. He can't serve any games during the shutdown. "The suspension is in games, so the bottom line is, until those games come off the board, that’s how long his suspension is going to last," Cashman said.

Players do not accrue service time during domestic violence policy suspensions. German can not become a free agent until after 2024, when he'll be 32, and the suspension ensured he wouldn't have gotten credit for a full year of service in 2020 even with a full 162-game season. Once he was suspended, there was no way to get a full season of service in 2020.

The bigger concern for German is a 2020 season shortened so much that his suspension carries over into 2021. He has two years and 17 days of service time (2.017) and 172 days equals a full season. That means he needs to spend at least 155 days on the active roster (or on the injured list) in 2021 to get credit for a full season. There are 186 actual days in the season, so if German has to miss 31+ days in 2021, it'll push his free agency back until after 2025. I don't see that happening (would MLB really play such a short season in 2020 that German would miss that much time in 2021?), but I guess it's possible.

MLB and the MLBPA still have to work through service time considerations, and depending what they come up with, it's possible German will qualify as a Super Two in 2021. Probably not, but maybe. The larger concern for him is a 2020 season shortened so much that his suspension carries over into 2021, as unlikely as it may be. For now, the Yankees control him through the 2024 season (2022-24 as arbitration-eligible, pre-arbitration before that).

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)