March 3rd, 2020: Judge, Grapefruit League, Ottavino, Torres, Gardner, Prospects

Quick reminder: I leave for vacation tomorrow and there will be no regularly scheduled post this Friday. Things will be back to normal next week. Thanks as always for the support. Now on to the day's thoughts.

1. Judge's setback. Folks, it's time to worry about Aaron Judge's Opening Day availability. He was shut down with continued soreness in his right shoulder over the weekend -- Aaron Boone clarified that the discomfort is under Judge's right pectoral, according to Brendan Kuty -- and was sent for tests Saturday and Monday. We should learn more later today. "It was more when he went to hit again Friday. Throwing wasn't an issue. It was more getting through a second day of cage BP yesterday. It just wasn't quite right," Boone told Bryan Hoch. The injury first popped up when Judge got to Tampa to ramp up his workouts in January. He's been on a throwing program the last few weeks and his hitting has progressed from dry swings to tee work and soft toss to hitting in the cage. The hope was he would take full batting practice on the field early this week and maybe get into a game later this week, but now everything is on hold, and no one knows what's up. Not great! "I'm a little frustrated for him, just not being able to get our arms around exactly what's going on and why it's been slow moving. The biggest thing right now is trying to get answers," Boone told Hoch, while adding all tests to date have come back negative (per Meredith Marakovits). Opening Day is three weeks from Thursday and Judge has not faced competitive pitching since last postseason. He could always go to minor league camp to get at-bats -- minor league spring games are very informal, Judge could get an at-bat every inning and build up that way -- but is building him up with eight or nine at-bats a day in minor league camp realistic when the guy is currently shut down with a shoulder issue? The Yankees are not going to rush Judge into anything. They'll ease him back once this shoulder issue clears up, whenever that is. He is way too important to be anything but cautious. If that means starting the season on the injured list and joining the team two weeks into the season, so be it. Better to miss a few games now than potentially many games later. The thing is, we still don't know what's wrong, and it could be that Judge is weeks away from ramping up his hitting work, not days. Aches and pains early in Spring Training are common -- I know we're all scarred after last season, but guys are sore in February all the time -- and I wasn't worried when Judge was a little behind the other hitters early in camp. Now that he had to be shut down and sent for more tests less than four weeks before Opening Day, I'm worried. This shoulder thing has made the jump from early spring nuisance to legitimate concern. "Time-wise, we're still fine. I don't know what we're dealing with here in the next several days. If he starts playing in games a week or 10 days out, he'd be technically fine, but first things first is getting up to that point. And I don't know when that is," Boone told Hoch.

2. Grapefruit League thoughts. Let's move on to the actual baseball. Two Grapefruit League games were televised since last Friday's post and here are some general thoughts and observations. To start with a personal fave, we got a chance to see Luis Medina on the mound Saturday. I was hoping he'd pitch in a televised game before being sent to minor league camp. Medina, my No. 5 prospect, allowed a hit and struck out three in two scoreless innings. He was electric. Here's the video. His innings start at 1:31:41 and 1:41:22. Between the raw stuff, the delivery, and the occasional post-strikeout hop, Medina looks like a mini-Dellin Betances. All he has to do is develop average control to be an impact guy. Anything more than that, and he's a star. Medina has three minor league option years remaining to figure it out ... Jordan Montgomery looked very good in Saturday's outing (four strikeouts in two scoreless innings). Here's the highlight video. The NESN broadcast did not show pitch velocities, so we don't know how hard he throwing, but the hitters did not look comfortable. Their swings were awkward and late. Montgomery was reportedly up to 94 mph in his first spring start -- "I was hitting it in sim games consistently," he told Bryan Hoch -- and the added velocity could be a game-changer for him, assuming it sticks around. He sat 90-92 mph with a decidedly mediocre fastball in 2017. The secondary pitches are good, especially the curveball. A little extra oomph on the fastball could be significant. It's early March, so let's keep an eye on this. It's too early to say the 94 mph heater is here to stay, but the early post-Tommy John surgery returns are promising ... The Rosell Herrera hype train has arrived. I picked him as my Spring Training Guy last week and over the weekend Aaron Boone twice mentioned him as a player who's stood out this spring. He said it during Saturday's in-game interview with the YES Network -- "He's been really solid here in his first game action, his first handful of games just swinging the bat. He's a switch-hitter, he's played well on the left side of the infield for us. He's been a guy who's done a really nice job here early in camp," Boone said (video link) -- and again prior to Sunday's game, according to Erik Boland. Herrera is 7-for-14 with a double and a triple in the early going and he's played three positions (second, third, right). Giancarlo Stanton is likely to miss Opening Day and Aaron Judge is trending in that direction too, plus there's a 26-man roster now. Squeezing Herrera, a career .225/.286/.316 (63 wRC+) big league hitter, onto the Opening Day roster wouldn't be difficult. Given the way things go for the Yankees these days, he'd probably hit .290/.350/.450 during the regular season.

3. Ottavino's adjustment. In my season preview series, I noted holding runners is an area Adam Ottavino can improve. Runners went 15-for-16 stealing bases against him last year -- the runner was easily safe on the one caught stealing, but he briefly disconnected from the bag and replay gave the Yankees the out (video) -- and 24-for-27 the year before. He's slow to the plate and it's a glaring weakness. Sure enough, Ottavino has made an adjustment in an effort to slow runners down. He told Joel Sherman he's eliminated the little double tap with his glove in his delivery. Ottavino made his Grapefruit League debut Saturday and the glove tap was indeed gone. Here are the before and after GIFs (GIF link):

Last season Ottavino set his hands at his waist and he tapped his glove before breaking his hands and getting into his delivery. This year he's setting his hands at his chest and there's no glove tap. "I think I can get it in a range where (opponents) won’t run (as often). Either way, it has to be better than before," Ottavino told Sherman, adding it took him a long time to break the glove tap habit this offseason and get comfortable with his new delivery. As a high-leverage reliever, Ottavino often pitches in close games, and that extra 90 feet can be a big deal when he's on the mound. Last season eight of the 15 stolen bases came in games separated by no more than one run and three of the eight led directly to a run. That's a few too many steals in tight games. The key is limiting steals without sacrificing stuff or control, not that Ottavino is blessed with stellar strike-throwing ability to begin with. If he's quick to the plate and limiting steals, but also throwing fewer strikes or missing fewer bats, what good is that? I would trade stolen base susceptibility for more strikeouts and better effectiveness overall. You don't want him thinking "don't tap your glove don't tap your glove don't tap your glove" on the mound. You want him focused on executing the pitch. Not doing the glove tap should feel natural and is Ottavino there yet? We don't know. Hopefully the new delivery takes and Ottavino can continue to be as effective as last season while also better holding runners. That would be ideal. If it doesn't work, so be it. At least he's trying to correct the flaw. "I can’t sacrifice too much of getting the speed to home to throw with some authority," he told Sherman.

4. Torres extension. We're in March and that's means it's extension season. Every year around this time teams get busy locking up their best players to long-term contracts. There were 35 extensions signed during the 2019 calendar year and 19 were signed in February or March. Several players signed long-term deals last month (Nick Ahmed, Aaron Bummer, Marco Gonzales, Max Muncy) and more will do the same this month. With all due respect to Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, both of whom are three years away from free agency, the most obvious extension candidate on the roster is Gleyber Torres. Torres will play the entire 2020 season at age 23 and he is still five years away from free agency, but he will qualify as a Super Two after this season, so he'll go through arbitration four times instead of the usual three. He's going to get expensive quick. Gleyber already has two All-Star Game selections to his credit and he received MVP votes last year. He could go into his first arbitration year with three All-Star Games and having received MVP votes in two seasons. The kid is going to get paid. For reference, here's what Josh Donaldson made in his four arbitration seasons:

• 2015: $4.3M
• 2016: $11.65M
• 2017: $17M
• 2018: $23M
• Total: $55.95M in four arbitration years

Donaldson won his MVP in 2015. He went into arbitration with one All-Star Game selection and MVP votes in two seasons, then the MVP boosted his earning potential from 2016-18. Maybe Torres won't win an MVP at some point in the next five years -- I'd bet against it only because that's by far the most likely outcome -- but he could go into arbitration with better credentials than Donaldson, improving his initial arbitration year salary, and thus boosting his earning power in future years. Ozzie Albies signed a six-year, $34.425M extension at Gleyber's service time level last spring and I'd give Torres that right now with no questions asked. I can't see him taking it though. As best I can tell, the only Super Two eligible player to sign a long-term deal at Torres' current service time level was Anthony Rizzo (seven years, $41M) way back in 2013. That does not seem relevant now. Bob Nightengale recently reported the Yankees and Torres agreed to a $675,600 salary for 2020. How does this work for a potential extension framework?

• 2020: $675,600 (final pre-arbitration year)
• 2021: $4M (first arbitration year)
• 2022: $10M (second arbitration year)
• 2023: $14M (third arbitration year)
• 2024: $18M (fourth arbitration year)
• 2025: $25M (first free agent year)
• 2027: $25M (second free agent year)
• 2018: $30M club option (third free agent year)

That covers his age 23-29 seasons with an option for age 30, so Torres would still hit the open market at roughly the same age Anthony Rendon is now, giving him a chance at a big free agent contract. If he doesn't want the club option to ensure he hits free agency in his 20s, fine, but then he has to take less money in prior years. There's gotta be some give and take. The 2020 salary is already in place and the Yankees would presumably keep it as is to avoid a luxury tax penalty. They want Torres at $675,600 this year. Considering that, the proposed extension above is a six-year, $96M deal beginning in 2021 with a seventh year club option that could push it to $126M. Add in a buyout of the club option and we could call the guarantee $100M. Yay or nay? Alex Bregman signed a six-year, $100M extension covering the same six-year chunk of his career last spring. There are a few key differences between the two (Bregman wasn't a Super Two, he only had one All-Star Game selection at the time, and he had a top five finish in the MVP voting) but that leads me to believe I'm in the ballpark, at least. Bregman signed away his final four years of team control and two free agent years for $100M. My proposed extension has Torres, a fellow star infielder, signing away his final four years of team control and two free agent years for $100M. Gleyber's luxury tax hit would jump to $16.67M next season rather than the $5M or so he would make in arbitration, but that's the cost of doing business. Take the luxury tax hit up front to get the savings down the road. The Yankees signed Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino long-term last spring and both deals look bad now. Hicks has been hurt and Severino barely pitched last year and will be out until the middle of next year even if his Tommy John surgery rehab goes well. Are the Hicks and Severino deals a good reason to hold off on a Torres extension? No, they are not. Not to me. Star middle infielders are worth locking up and Gleyber is someone the Yankees can build around no matter what happens with Judge, Sanchez, Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, etc. I would bet against a Torres extension only because the Yankees have been extension adverse the last two decades or so, but the Hicks and Severino deals indicate they are open to them under the right circumstances. Does six years and $100M beginning in 2021 qualify as the right circumstances for Torres? I don't know, but I hope the Yankees look into it. (I floated seven years and $70M with two club options back in October. Not sure what I was thinking there. Must've been feeling optimistic. The $100M Bregman-esque extension seems more realistic.)

5. How can he improve? Brett Gardner. The longest tenured player in the organization is next up in our series looking at ways each core Yankee can improve in 2020. We've already covered Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Masahiro Tanaka, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit. Gardner looked close to done late in 2018, but the Yankees brought him back last season as a fourth outfielder. Injuries pushed him into everyday center field duty and Gardi B turned in one of his finest seasons. He hit .251/.325/.503 (115 wRC+) with 28 home runs -- he set new career highs in homers (by 7), SLG (by 75 points), and wRC (by 4 points) -- while providing his typically strong defense (+5 DRS) and baserunning (+4.6 runs). The +4 WAR season puts him over +40 WAR for his career. Not bad for a college walk-on. Not bad at all. Surely the rocket ball contributed to Gardner's power output to some degree -- his 382-foot average home run distance was lowest among the 74 batters with at least 25 homers last year -- but it's important to note Gardner also made adjustments last year that suggest more power was coming with or without the rocket ball. His 46.4% pull rate was a full season career high by more than six percentage points, and his 44.2% ground ball rate was his lowest in six years. The trends:

Want to hit for power? Start pulling the ball in the air. That's the easiest way to do it and that usually goes double for a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium, though Gardner hit only 12 of his 28 homers in the Bronx last year, if you can believe that. He became more aggressive at the plate and hunted fastballs -- 22 of his 28 homers came on fastballs, and his 19.5% strikeout rate was his highest in five years and his 9.5% walk rate was his lowest in six years -- and the result was more power. In a perfect world, Gardner would combine his pre-2019 plate discipline (17.4 K% and 10.7 BB% from 2016-18) with his 2019 power, but I'm not sure that's possible. The aggressiveness contributed to the power. Change one and the other will change too. With his 37th birthday coming in August -- Gardner is the oldest position player on the 40-man roster by nearly five years -- I think any adjustments are more about maintaining his current performance level rather than improving on it. Last year's emphasis on pulling the ball in the air shows improvement can be made at this age, but it's not easy. I think the key this year will be workload management. Gardner averaged 643 plate appearances per year from 2014-18 and he had a tendency to wear down late in the season. Last year he was down to 550 plate appearances and he socked 10 (!) homers in September. Only Pete Alonso (11) hit more. Lefties have given Gardner fits for years and that was again the case last season ...

• vs. RHP: .265/.346/.546 (131 wRC+)
• vs. LHP: .212/.268/.386 (70 wRC+)

... and that's an obvious spot to sit him, even though the center field alternative is another left-handed hitter (Mike Tauchman) until Aaron Hicks returns. Gardner has already cut back on his stolen base attempts -- his steal attempts have gone from 28 to 18 to 12 the last three years -- and part of that is staying put because the Yankees have so much power that it's kinda foolish to risk losing baserunners, but there's also a self-preservation component. It's less wear-and-tear on a player in his mid-30s. Scaling back on Gardner's workload to keep him fresh and productive later into the season is much easier said than done. Hicks is hurt, Giancarlo Stanton is hurt, and Aaron Judge is banged up and trending toward hurt. If possible, I think getting Gardner into the 500-550 plate appearance range is the way to go. Turn him into a five days a week player rather than an every single day guy. Gardner made adjustments to increase his power last season and he did it without tanking his AVG or OBP, and without a huge spike in strikeouts. He deserves a ton of credit for that. It's not easy. I assume he will stick with that approach in 2020, at least until pitchers tell him it's time for another change. If the Yankees can get him off his feet a little more often this year, that would be swell. The less they ask of the soon-to-be 37-year-old, the better.

6. Law's top 20 Yankees prospects. Last week Keith Law posted his annual top 100 prospects list, which included three Yankees. Earlier this week he followed up with his farm system rankings (subs. req'd), and he has the Yankees at No. 6. Can't say I expected them to rank that high. What a pleasant surprise. The article is behind the paywall but the Yankees blurb is all over social media anyway, so here it is:

The Yankees have clearly figured out some things on the development side, especially finding ways to help pitchers throw harder or throw higher-quality pitches (like boosting spin rates), and have also stayed active on the international side. Their Latin American contingent helmed one of the most lauded groups of short-season prospects I found during the process of assembling these rankings, with teams already asking for some of their GCL kids in trade talks. They’ve also got pitching coming, headlined by a risky first-round pick who’s worked out extremely well so far in Clarke Schmidt.

2018 international signees Kevin Alcantara and Alex Vargas made my top 30 prospects list, and several others (Maikol Escotto, Antonio Gomez, Osiel Rodriguez) made my not top 30 prospects list. There's also that Jasson Dominguez guy. These kids are all extremely far from the big leagues, we know that, but the early returns are very positive. Law also posted his top 20 Yankees prospects list (subs. req'd) late last week. Here's the top 10:

1. RHP Clarke Schmidt
2. RHP Deivi Garcia
3. OF Jasson Dominguez
4. LHP T.J. Sikkema
5. RHP Yoendrys Gomez
6. 2B Ezequiel Duran
7. SS Oswald Peraza
8. RHP Alex Vizcaino
9. SS Alex Vargas
10. RHP Miguel Yajure

You're not going to see Sikkema ranked that high in the system anywhere else. Nothing wrong with that. It's boring when prospect lists are all the same. It's good to get different opinions on players. Anyway, here are some quick thoughts on Law's top 20 list. One, he says Sikemma was "up to 96 mph," which is much more velocity than I've heard or read about him having. I heard Sikemma was mostly 90-92 mph, which is meh velocity these days, even for a lefty. The Yankees know how to build velocity though, so maybe they've already worked their magic with Sikemma? Would be cool. Two, the reviews of Duran's defense continue to be positive. It was questionable whether he'd remain on the middle infield at this time last year, but Law says he is "a very good second baseman who should at least get a look at short." Neato. Three, Law praises Vargas' skill set and says he is "a very good athlete with tools across the board who’d probably be better known if he were 6-1 rather than 5-11." Vargas turned only 18 in October, so there's still time to grow and fill out as he matures. Four, Law isn't as high on Roansy Contreras and Luis Medina as I am. He says Contreras' curveball "just isn’t going to work as a third pitch," and notes Medina's ongoing consistency issues with, well, everything. And five, selecting Anthony Volpe in the first round last year is seen as "a large bet on his ability to hit and his overall baseball IQ," according to Law, which fits a few too many of the Yankees' recent high draft picks. They bet on Anthony Seigler, Cito Culver, and Dante Bichette Jr. (and even Blake Rutherford to some degree) playing above their tools because they have good baseball minds. Eh. I really wish the Yankees would take some bigger swings with their first round picks. Player development is not predictable enough -- and talent is not abundantly available enough -- to not take the most naturally talented players every chance you get, especially high in the draft. There's something to be said for baseball smarts, sure, but they only go so far. (MLB.com released their top 30 Yankees prospects over the weekend. Their list and scouting reports are free to read. I haven't gone through the list myself yet but will soon. Just wanted to pass along the link.) 

7. Bautista comeback. I need the regular season to start because I'm starting to think crazy things. Yesterday Jeff Passan reported Jose Bautista is attempting a comeback as a two-way player. He will play first base for the Dominican Republic in the upcoming Olympics qualifying tournament, but he worked out all offseason as a pitcher, and Passan says he's up to 94 mph with a promising slider. Bautista always had a very strong arm (remember this?), so I'm not surprised he's reportedly throwing hard. Throwing hard and being a viable pitching option are very different things though. Bautista, 39, did not play last season, and he hit .203/.348/.378 (106 wRC) with 13 homers in 399 plate appearances with three teams in 2018. Squint your eyes and you can see him as a first base/third base/outfield bench option who throws mop-up innings in the 26-man roster era. Bautista can still put a mistake in the seats and he's always drawn a ton of walks, and he's not someone who will wilt under the bright lights or in a postseason race. The guy is 39 years old and he's banked over $100M in his career. He could easily call it a career and go live out the rest of his days on perpetual vacation with his family. Instead, he's trying to come back as a two-way player because he loves baseball and presumably because he wants a World Series ring. That's admirable. With the 2019 injury bug already carrying over to 2020 and the Yankees short on position player depth, is Bautista on a minor league deal worth considering? I guess it depends how he looks like in the Olympic qualifier later this month. Like I said, I'm starting to think crazy things now that the monotony of Spring Training has settled in. All I know is it would be an extremely Yankees thing to sign Bautista and then have him hit .250/.400/.500 with 20 dingers in part-time duty while being a competent mop-up reliever.

8. Rapid fire thoughts. Ken Davidoff and Mike Puma report the Yankees contacted the Mets about lefty Steven Matz recently. Matz had a 4.21 ERA (4.60 FIP) with decent enough peripherals (22.1 K%, 7.5 BB%, 47.1 GB%) in 160.1 innings last season, and he's currently competing with Michael Wacha for the fifth starter's spot in Flushing. Apparently the Mets want a Major League position player in return, which the Yankees can't really afford to part with right now. Plus, I'd always bet against a Mets-Yankees trade. I do like Matz though (I first wrote about him as a trade candidate in July 2018) and I think he's a nice buy-low candidate, assuming he's available for buy-low prices. I don't expect a trade but I like the thinking. There's some untapped potential there and Matz will remain under control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2021, after James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka become free agents, and while Luis Severino completes his Tommy John surgery rehab (I wrote more about the Matz rumor at CBS) ... It's only been 10 days, but Gio Urshela has played third base and third base only this Grapefruit League season. He says he's open to playing other positions but the fact he hasn't played anywhere else this spring indicates the Yankees don't see it as a priority. For what it's worth, Joel Sherman says Aaron Boone is "leaning toward" playing Urshela at shortstop at some point this spring. Would be cool, but again, it doesn't seem like a priority. Bummer ... We have our first Aaron Hicks update. Boone said Hicksie's Tommy John surgery rehab is "going to plan so far," according to Brendan Kuty. Interestingly enough, Hicks told Bryan Hoch he decided to have Tommy John surgery before the ALCS, but played through it to help the team. "I wanted to play so bad, and you never know when your next opportunity is to play in the postseason," he said. Anyway, Didi Gregorius had his elbow reconstruction Oct. 17th and he returned June 7th. Hicks had his surgery Oct. 30th, so figure he comes back in mid-to-late June based on the Gregorius timetable ... As noted in the Jose Bautista blurb, an Olympics qualifying tournament will take place in Arizona later this month. Jon Morosi reports 40-man roster players not on the MLB roster will be eligible to play, unlike previous years. Eight teams will participate in the tournament: Canada, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, United States, and Venezuela. Among 40-man roster players not guaranteed to make the Yankees' Opening Day roster, I could see Thairo Estrada (Venezuela), Deivi Garcia (Dominican Republic), and Jonathan Loaisiga (Nicaragua) being of interest to their countries for the tournament. Team USA is going to be stacked with or without 40-man roster guys, so pitchers like Mike King or Brooks Kriske probably won't be on the radar. As far as I know MLB teams are not obligated to allow players to participate in the Olympics (unlike the World Baseball Classic), so we'll see what happens. I could see the Yankees saying no to Deivi and Loaisiga given the current rotation situation ... And finally, the first round of roster cuts should be coming soon. Probably later this week. The first round of cuts is usually small and typically involves the youngest players in camp. Righties Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Alex Vizcaino, and Miguel Yajure stand out as candidates to be reassigned to minor league camp soon. The first three have never pitched above Single-A and Yajure only has two Double-A starts under his belt. They are obvious candidates to be included in the first round of cuts. By the way, Boone's nickname for Yajure is "Yahoo," according to Hoch. I like it.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)