February 25th, 2020: Happ, Andujar, Acevedo, Vizcaino, Montgomery, Top 100 Prospects, Red Sox

Gerrit Cole has made his first start as a Yankee and we didn't get to see it. He struck out two and walked one in a scoreless inning in an untelevised game against the Pirates last night. His next scheduled start is Saturday and yes, that game will be televised (safe to assume he's pitching the home split squad game and not making the road trip). Here are today's thoughts now that real live baseball has returned.

1. Happ's spring debut. J.A. Happ threw the ball very well in the Grapefruit League opener Saturday. Six up, six down against something very close to the Blue Jays' A-lineup. For what it's worth, the YES Network gun had him up to 93 mph with his fastball (he averaged 92.0 mph last year), and Happ told Joel Sherman he was pleased with the two-seamers he threw after the pitch gave him problems last year. From Sherman:

He broke out a rarely used two-seamer to freeze Cavan Biggio in the first and closed the second by deploying the two-seamer consecutively to whiff Randal Grichuk after falling behind 3-1. It is a pitch he would like to use, particularly to lefties, to better open corridors for his bread-and-butter four-seamer up in the zone. 

Happ did not have that fastball for more than half the season last year. He felt his lower half was not working in sync with his top half, which led to three dreadful starts to open the season. That brought tinkering that helped and hurt in near equal parts ...

A Yankee getting Randal Grichuk out? Even in Spring Training, that's cause for celebration. That dude punishes anyone wearing pinstripes. In all seriousness, I rewatched Happ's outing because I wanted to see how many two-seamers he threw, but the offset camera angle was no help. I gave up tracking pitches because it's too hard to tell what's what while watching from left-center field. As noted last week, Happ scaled back his two-seam usage last September, which was easily his best month of the season. He went from roughly 45% four-seamers and 20% two-seamers from April through August to 55/10 in September. The best thing Happ can do now is figure out a way to avoid the barrel and limit hard contact, because he gave up a lot of it last year. A revived two-seamer can help him accomplish that, especially given how many fastballs he throws overall. The two-seamer plays off the four-seamer and vice versa. Happ mentioned tightening up his mechanics last September -- "I was able to use my legs a little bit better, my hips a little bit better," he said -- and that's apparently something that has carried over to this spring. "He worked really hard this offseason to make some little adjustments and got his body in a really good place," Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch over the weekend. If whatever changes and adjustments he's made allow the two-seamer to become a viable offering again, great. The weapons Happ had last season were not really MLB caliber and something has to change in 2020. He can't go be the same Happ as last year and expect different results (the elephant in the room is the baseball itself may be different and lead to improved results without Happ actually changing anything, but you know what I mean). One game on Feb. 22nd is just one game on Feb. 22nd. We'll see what happens as the innings pile up and hitters start to get in rhythm at the plate. For now, I'll take anything that resembles a positive sign with Happ. He was very bad last season and the injuries to James Paxton and Luis Severino make him an important cog in the rotation heading into 2020. "Every emotion you could have, I had (this offseason), and I had a lot of those during the season. The frustration was high at times, but I always tried to figure it out. That was a big motivator going in. You’ve got to do it because you want to do it. You don’t want to do it because somebody writes something that you don’t like," Happ told Hoch.

2. Grapefruit League thoughts. The Yankees are 0-2-1 through three Grapefruit League games (doomed, season over, etc. etc.) and the first two games were televised. Alas, we didn't get to see Gerrit Cole's spring debut last night. With the caveat that two televised games is a tiny sample, here are some super early scattered Grapefruit League thoughts. One, it was great to see Miguel Andujar on Sunday. He's a personal favorite and I missed that dude big time last year. He clocked an opposite field home run in his second spring at-bat (video), which is obviously encouraging following shoulder surgery. Andujar wasn't really tested at third base Saturday (he started a routine 5-4-3 double play in his only defensive opportunity) and he is expected to start in left field later this week. I'm looking forward to it. Andujar being a competent outfielder would really help roster construction. Mostly, I'm just glad he's back and that we've already seen shades of the old Miggy. "First of all, thank God for the opportunity to be here and healthy. I’ve got to say, I was really excited to be back out there and play the game," he told Bryan Hoch. Two, one-time prospect Domingo Acevedo threw eight fastballs in a scoreless inning Saturday. The YES Network score bug wasn't up for the first fastball, but it clocked the other seven at 95, 95, 95, 94, 96, 96, 94. Acevedo was sitting 90-91 mph before he cleared waivers and got released last summer. The YES gun is usually pretty reliable in Spring Training (I believe it's synced up with Trackman) and Acevedo's velocity was encouraging after last summer. It was max effort -- Acevedo put everything he had into each pitch -- and he still doesn't have a reliable breaking ball, but the arm strength has returned. I'm out on Acevedo at this point because he turns 26 next week and has made little to no progress the last few years. That said, the velocity seems to be back, and the Yankees didn't bring him to camp as a non-roster invitee because they were feeling generous. They think there's still something there. Three, Sunday was a fun day for prospect arms. Clarke Schmidt, Nick Nelson, Miguel Yajure, Alex Vizcaino, and Albert Abreu all pitched one right after the other. None was especially sharp (5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 3 K combined) but my goodness, Vizcaino's changeup is something fierce. Look at this (GIF via Robert Pimpsner):

Vizcaino, my No. 17 prospect, is listed at 6-foot-2 and 160 lbs. and he looks it. He's rail thin. There's effort in a delivery that screams reliever, and he didn't seem to know where the ball was going, but he's in the upper-90s these days and that's a knockout changeup. Vizcaino right now is what the best version of Acevedo was years ago. The lack of a reliable breaking ball will limit his ceiling. Fernando Rodney has pitched basically forever with an upper-90s fastball, a great changeup, and bad command though, so there is a path to a long big league career with this profile. And four, really bummed we didn't get to see Luis Medina pitch in last night's game. He allowed two hits and an unearned run in an inning. Medina has maybe the most electric arm in the system but he's still only 20, and he's barely pitched above Low Class-A (two career starts in High-A). He figures to be among the very first players reassigned to minor league camp once cuts begin and we may not get an opportunity to see him this spring. That would be a bummer. Minor league camp opens March 9th, so hopefully Medina appears in a televised game at some point in the next week and a half. Fingers crossed.

3. How can he improve? Jordan Montgomery. The next entry in our series breaking down each core Yankee heading into 2020 is a pitcher who has been out of action since April 2018, for all intents and purposes. We've already covered Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole, J.A. Happ, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Masahiro Tanaka, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit. Montgomery returned from Tommy John surgery last September and the results weren't good (three runs on seven hits in four innings) but who cares? The Yankees were playing meaningless games at the time and it was good to get Montgomery back on a big league mound. Tommy John surgery rehab is grueling and it can also be lonely. Bringing him back in September gets those first game back jitters out of the way, it gets him back with his teammates and reminds him he is an important part of the club, and it rewards him for completing all that rehab work. In 2017, his only extended MLB action, Montgomery had a 3.88 ERA (4.07 FIP) with average-ish peripherals across the board (22.2% strikeouts, 7.9% walks, 40.7% grounders). He actually led all rookie pitchers with +2.6 WAR that season. That was three years ago now and it is our baseline for Montgomery. What he did in April 2018 isn't helpful because it's a small sample and his elbow was acting up, and there's no sense in analyzing last September. What we know about 2017 Montgomery is that he was a true five-pitch pitcher in that he threw five different pitches at least 13% of the time. He wasn't a three-pitch guy with a show-me fourth and fifth pitch. He used all five pitches regularly. The other thing we know about 2017 Montgomery is that his stuff was decidedly average. Here are the numbers on 2017 Montgomery with the MLB averages in parenthesis (green means good relative to league average, red means bad, gray means roughly average):

All that red with fastballs is what worries me about post-Tommy John surgery Montgomery. The four-seamer and sinker were both below-average pitches in 2017 -- they missed bats, got grounders, and generated weak contact at rates far below the MLB averages -- and if he loses velocity or spin or both after elbow reconstruction, Montgomery could be in serious trouble. For what it's worth, his velocity and spin last September were in line with 2017, and he apparently hit 94 mph during last night's two scoreless innings -- "That’s the first time I hit 94 mph in a while," Montgomery told Brendan Kuty -- which is encouraging (he threw a pitch 94+ mph only 20 times in 2017). The fastballs were not good in 2017 but the curveball was an effective pitch, at least when it comes to missing bats and limiting hard contact. The fact he threw the curveball more than any other pitch tells us Montgomery and the Yankees are well aware that pitch is his strength. I think there's still room to use that pitch even more going forward though. Four pitchers qualified for the ERA title last season while throwing at least 30% curves and they're four pretty damn good pitchers:

1. Charlie Morton: 37.3% (had Tommy John surgery in 2012)
2. Adam Wainwright: 36.8% (had Tommy John surgery in 2011)
3. Aaron Nola: 35.2%
4. Stephen Strasburg: 30.6% (had Tommy John surgery in 2010)
5. Jose Berrios: 28.8%

Given the below-average fastballs and quality curveball, I think Montgomery is a candidate to go full Masahiro Tanaka. He was at 42% fastballs and 39% breaking balls in 2017. Is 30% fastballs and 50% breaking balls (say 35% curveballs and 15% sliders) doable? Would it even help? I have no idea. There are two obvious caveats here. First, we have no idea what Montgomery looks like following Tommy John surgery. Those four innings last September and two innings last night don't tell us much and everything I've said here is based on 2017 Montgomery. Pitchers change a lot -- a lot -- in three years even when healthy. This year's Montgomery could look very different than the Montgomery we saw three seasons ago. The Yankees will see what he's working with before making any drastic changes, and that includes seeing both the quality of his stuff and his mechanics. "My mechanics were pretty rough that year before (surgery). I was doing anything I could to get my arm through, really contort my body to get it through because that was kind of the spot where it didn’t hurt. Now I can just let my arm through and keep my posture and use my thighs a bit more now, which I’m excited about. Clean everything up the best I can and be simple and smooth is what I’m going for," Montgomery said during a radio interview last month, according to Kuty. Secondly, throwing 50% breaking balls so soon after elbow reconstruction might not be good for the ol' ulnar collateral ligament. Embracing the anti-fastball philosophy may not be the best idea, physically. Trying to figure out a way Montgomery could improve this season is a fool's errand because we haven't seen healthy Montgomery in two full seasons now. Staying healthy is the No. 1 priority, especially with James Paxton and Luis Severino already hurt. Once Montgomery gets out there every fifth day and we see what he's working with, we'll have a better idea of what adjustments can be made to take his performance to the next level. "Obviously, if we can turn the clock back to what he was his rookie year, he was a very formidable starter. He's got no fear, throws strikes, and has a number of weapons. His pitchability is very impressive at this young age and we're looking forward to what he looks like. Tommy John is officially behind him. No rehab mode, just compete mode," Brian Cashman told Anthony McCarron last week.

4. Law's top 100 prospects. The final major top 100 prospects list hit internet shelves yesterday. Keith Law (subs. req'd) released his top 100 list and he, of course, has Rays shortstop Wander Franco in the top spot. Franco is the unanimous No. 1 prospect in the game right now. Three Yankees made Law's list in maybe the opposite order you'd expect:

51. RHP Clarke Schmidt
67. RHP Deivi Garcia
99. OF Jasson Dominguez

"Dominguez has an outstanding swing with superior bat speed, and he’s a 70 runner with a plus arm and plus raw power," says the write-up, which is consistent with all the Jasson praise we've seen in recent weeks. Despite the strong skills, I don't think the No. 99 ranking is light. That's still very strong for a just turned 17-year-old kid who has yet to play an official game. Law likes Schmidt because he's cleaned up his delivery and come back from Tommy John surgery well, and he says he believes Garcia can remain a starter despite his small stature, but adds, "I’ve also seen him at 93-96 in short bursts, and once through an order he could be devastatingly good." Now that the five top 100 lists have been released  (Law, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, and FanGraphs), we can build consensus rankings:

FanGraphs and only FanGraphs had OF Kevin Alcantara, 2B Ezequiel Duran, and SS Alex Vargas on their top 100, so I omitted them from the consensus rankings. Schmidt was not included in the Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs top 100s, so I plugged 101 into the open slots to calculate his average ranking. Dominguez and Garcia appeared on all five lists and the spread on Deivi's rankings is huge. No. 24 on Baseball Prospectus all the way down to No. 92 on MLB.com. (Dominguez has a big spread too.) I don't think that actually means anything -- I suspect most non-elite prospects have a huge spread in their rankings -- but it is kinda interesting. Garcia has a chance to be a real MFer in relief this season. Not two or three years down the line. He could impact postseason races in 2020. That alone should land him closer to No. 24 than No. 92 on a top 100 list in my book, but the consensus rankings have him exactly midway between No. 24 and No. 92. Anyway, two top 60-ish prospects and another back of the top 100 prospect is the consensus this year, and two of the three could make their MLB debuts this summer. Considering where the system was a year ago, when either Estevan Florial (talented but flawed) or Jonathan Loaisiga (talented but long injury history) was the Yankees' top prospect, that's pretty darn good. (If you're interested, FanGraphs posted the ZiPS projected top 100 prospects last week. Two Yankees made it: Duran at No. 59 and Deivi at No. 64. Huh.)

5. Red Sox punishment. Have you enjoyed all the Astros sniping? Because we're going to go through it all again with the Red Sox soon. Last week commissioner Rob Manfred said he expects a resolution on the Red Sox investigation by the end of this week. "There have been a couple developments in the Boston thing that slowed us down," he said. From what I understand, Boston's cheating scheme was not as intricate as Houston's. They were decoding sign sequences in real time using the video room, but there was no garbage can banging or buzzer to relay those signs to the hitter. I guess the runner at second base would look in at the catcher, pick up the sign, then relay the incoming pitch to the hitter with a hand signal. Something like that. Rob Arthur (subs. req'd) found the Astros chased fewer pitches in the dirt when they were stealing signs in 2017, and the Red Sox showed the same tendency in 2018, but only when there were runners on base, lending some credence to the theory. Either way, what the Red Sox were doing was illegal. Can't use the video room to steal signs in real time. On one hand, their punishment may not be as severe as Houston's because the scheme wasn't as elaborate. On the other hand, the Red Sox are a repeat offender. They got caught using Apple Watches to steal signs in Sept. 2017 and were fined, and when Manfred announced the fine, he said this in his statement: "I have received absolute assurances from the Red Sox that there will be no future violations of this type." Seems like a pretty big deal. The team got caught cheating, assured the commissioner they wouldn't do it again, and then did it again the very next season (and won the World Series along the way). Even if Boston's scheme wasn't as elaborate as Houston's, doesn't the fact they are a repeat offender mean their punishment should be even more severe? They were given a warning and ignored it. Pretty brazen, I'd say. This is my official punishment prediction:

• $5M fine (maximum allowed by the MLB Constitution)
• Former manager Alex Cora suspended three years.
• Former president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suspended one year.
• Forfeit first and second round draft picks in 2020 and 2021.

The fine, lost draft picks, and Dombrowski's suspension follow the Astros' template. Dombrowski, 64 in July, was fired last September and I don't know whether he is planning to pursue another front office job. The suspension would mean he'd have to wait a year to do so, if he wants. As for Cora, MLB identified him as a key figure in Houston's scheme. He helped the Astros put a sign-stealing system in place as their bench coach in 2017 and then did the same thing with the Red Sox as their manager in 2018. Cora is going to get hammered (as he should), and because he's already parted ways with the Red Sox, it gives MLB a chance to put this all on someone who is already out of the picture. It's far too convenient to pass up (MLB wants nothing more than this all to go away already). Pleasing ownership is Manfred's top priority and putting the blame on Cora would accomplish that. I am pro-chaos and it would be hilarious if Manfred came out and said he's vacating the 2018 World Series title because he learned his lesson after so many opposing players were upset about the Astros' punishment. I'm not gonna hold my breath though. Boston's sign-stealing scheme may not have been as elaborate as Houston's, but they still stole signs illegally, and they're a repeat offender. That last part seems mighty important. They should get hit hard. Even harder than the Astros. Ultimately, I think Cora is going to shoulder most of the blame, and the Red Sox organization will escape with the same relative slap on the wrist as Houston.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. I neglected to pick a Spring Training Guy this year, meaning the random minor leaguer or non-roster player who has a big spring and gets talked up as an Opening Day roster candidate. Jon Weber was the original Spring Training Guy in 2010 and Yangervis Solarte is easily the biggest Spring Training Guy success story. Reigning Double-A Eastern League MVP Chris Gittens would've been a fine pick this year, but he socked a dinger Saturday, and I feel like it would be cheating to pick him now. I'll go with Rosell Herrera instead. Switch-hitter with speed who puts the ball in play a ton is a great candidate for a month-long BABIP hot streak. Add in the ability to play pretty much anywhere, and you've got a prime Spring Training Guy candidate. Herrera's my pick ... if projections are your thing, PECOTA has the Yankees at 99-63 in 2020, and ZiPS has them at 100-62. Those projected records reflect the James Paxton and Luis Severino injuries and are far and away the best in the AL East. The Rays are a distant second at 88-75 and 91-71, respectively. Only the Dodgers (103-58 per PECOTA and 101-61 per ZiPS) have a better projected record in baseball. Projections are not predictions, they are an estimate of true talent level, and both PECOTA and ZiPS have the Yankees as the most talented team in the American League (and easily the most talented team in the division) even with Paxton and Severino hurt. I'll take it ... a thing I would've liked the Yankees to do: sign Brian Dozier to a minor league deal worth $2.2M at the MLB level. The Padres instead did that, according to Jon Heyman. The Yankees are thin on the middle infield and having Dozier around as a non-roster depth guy, even if his deal included an opt-out at the end of Spring Training, would've been cool. He'd have been an extra layer of security these next few weeks. I totally get why Dozier would go with the Padres over the Yankees -- would you rather compete for playing time at second base with Jurickson Profar, who had an 89 wRC+ last year and developed the yips, or the guy who finished fourth in the AL MVP race? -- but darn. Would've been a nice little move in late-February, even if it was only a temporary spring pickup.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)