January 28th, 2020: Happ, Andujar, Urshela, Judge, Top 100 Prospects, Astros, Alvarez, Medina, Garcia

In case you missed the announcement last week, I will indeed put together my annual Top 30 Prospects List this year. It'll be released next Friday, Feb. 7th. The Friday before pitchers and catchers report, as always. Here are today's thoughts with Spring Training a mere 15 days away.

1. Cashman on Happ. During a YES Network appearance last week Brian Cashman said he expects a better J.A. Happ this coming season. He did not say Happ is the favorite to be the fifth starter as I've seen stated elsewhere, though I guess it was implied. Here's what Cashman said about Happ (video link):

"I'm extremely confident (in the rotation), especially the top four. I do think that Happ is going to be even better for us than he was in the first half of last year. I think you'll see more of the second half Happ. So we look forward to him proving that with us in 2020."

Last season Happ pitched to a 5.02 ERA (5.32 FIP) in 89.2 first half innings and a 4.77 ERA (5.04 FIP) in 71.2 second half innings. He was marginally better in the second half and, really, the good ("good") second half boils down to a great September. Happ had a 5.04 ERA (4.53 FIP) in July, a 7.30 ERA (7.27 FIP) in August, and a 1.65 ERA (3.10 FIP) in September. April and September are full of lies, folks. They are the worst times to evaluate players outside Spring Training. April because no one is in midseason form and September because the quality of competition can vary so much (Sept. call-ups, rebuilding teams running out the clock, etc.). Happ's good September does nothing for me -- if another team believes it's an indication he's turned the corner and wants to trade something of value for him, by all means, make an offer -- and when push came to shove in October, the Yankees wanted no part of him. They were more comfortable using a parade of (worn down) relievers with their season on the line in ALCS Game 6 rather than start Happ and hope he could give them even three or four innings. Being the fifth starter during the regular season is much different than pitching in games that matter in the postseason, obviously, but the last time we saw Happ, he was pitcher non grata. As for Cashman's comments, what else is he supposed to say? "We're going to trade this guy to get under the $248M third luxury tax threshold," isn't something the general manager admits. Cashman indicated the Yankees will keep Happ for three reasons. One, to maintain some semblance of leverage in trade negotiations. Broadcasting your intention to trade a player is a good way to potentially lower offers. Two, to be respectful and maintain a good relationship with Happ and other players. The Yankees are World Series contenders and announcing you intend to trade a respected veteran is a good way to upset the clubhouse. There is a chance, however small, the Yankees wind up keeping Happ, and you want to keep that good relationship intact. You don't want to alienate someone. (That's the main reason it was so unusual Cashman was adamant they'd trade Sonny Gray last offseason.). And three, you don't want a young player like Jordan Montgomery or Mike King getting too comfortable and thinking they have a roster spot locked up, you know? I don't think that's a significant concern but it's never a bad idea to make players believe they have to earn their spots. There is no such thing as too much pitching depth and keeping Happ would not be a bad baseball move. You could argue Happ would be one of the best fifth starters in baseball -- for what it's worth, 16 of the other 29 teams have a better fifth starter than Happ based on FanGraphs projected WAR -- and his performance could bounce back should the rocket ball go away. That said, Happ turned 37 in October, and he showed all the traits you don't want to see in a 37-year-old pitcher last season. Declining velocity, declining spin, declining strikeouts, increasing hard contact allowed. Also, if the Yankees keep Happ and blow through the $248M third luxury tax threshold, I'll be even more annoyed they did not retain Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius. Once you're over the threshold and move your top 2021 draft pick back 10 spots, you might as well keep spending. The penalties don't get any worse after that. Anyway, I saw it being passed around that Cashman said Happ will be the fifth starter, so I went back to listen to the comments myself, and come on. He didn't say that. He said the bare minimum about Happ while discussing the rotation. Nothing more, nothing less. I wouldn't read much into Cashman's comments. Classic general manager speak.

UPDATE: Cashman did explicitly say Happ is the fifth starter (0:55 mark here). That is, of course, subject to change. Bubba Crosby was the starting center fielder until he wasn't.

2. Andujar's new positions. The Yankees will indeed try Miguel Andujar at new positions in Spring Training. Brian Cashman hinted at the possibility earlier in the offseason, and it has felt like an inevitability all winter, but now it's official. Cashman (and also Aaron Boone) said the Yankees will have Andujar work out at first base and in the outfield in Spring Training during last week's YES Network interview (video link). Here's Cashman:

"He's going to try to compete for third base but it's Gio Urshela's job to lose, first and foremost ... We open the conversation about versatility. Getting a chance to get a first base glove on and an outfielder's glove on too and just see that, in the event if an injury does hit or he doesn't push through at third base. Obviously he has (minor league) options. He can go to Triple-A, but is there a role on the major league club in a different capacity? That bat is special. His makeup is off the chart. Obviously he's hungry to reprove himself, and he’s going to have to do that because he’s coming back from a shoulder injury. But we’re going to take the opportunity to see some versatility, see his health, and allow it to play out."

I talked myself into trying Andujar at second base, an admittedly half-baked idea I never did expect to happen in real life, and it sounds like we can rule that out. Andujar has worked out at first base at various points in his career -- he played first base in a minor league Spring Training game in 2018 -- but as far as I know he's never worked out in the outfield, let alone played a game out there. Spring Training is the time to try it. Maybe it's a complete disaster, maybe it works surprisingly well. Who knows? The goal is finding a way to keep Andujar's bat in the lineup because -- I feel like lots of folks need this reminder right now -- the kid hit .297/.328/.527 (130 wRC+) with 27 home runs and an American League rookie record 47 doubles as a 23-year-old in 2018. Urshela's breakout season at the prime age of 27 was roughly as good as Andujar's rookie season at age 23 (132 wRC+ vs. 130 wRC+). That's not a bat you cast aside or send to Triple-A because he doesn't have an obvious defensive home. You make room for that player and the Yankees are right to try Andujar at other positions. It is the common sense thing to do. The good news is the injury was to Andujar's right shoulder, his back shoulder when hitting, not his front (power) shoulder. Several players, most notably Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Kemp, had labrum surgery on their front shoulders and never really regained their previous power stroke. We don't have to worry about that with Andujar. His front shoulder is intact, so, once he gets his timing down following the long layoff, there is every reason to believe he will impact the baseball like he did as a rookie. Even if the outfield doesn't take, I think there is a clear path to 500+ plate appearances for Andujar this season between first and third bases, and DH. Hopefully the outfield works and he can improve his versatility and value to the club. If not, oh well. He will hit more than enough to make up for it. “One of the reasons we went down to the Dominican was to see Miggy and spend a little bit of time. He's great. He’s doing really well. He’s doing everything that he needs to do. The arm is responding. Hitting, he looks great. Physically, he’s in tremendous shape. So we’re excited about where he’s at. I feel like he’ll be hitting the ground running when we get to Spring Training," Boone said during his YES Network interview (video link).

3. Gio's defense. Speaking of Gio Urshela and third base, how do we reconcile the eye test with the stats regarding his defense? I think we can all agree that when you watch him play, Gio looks like one of the best defenders in the game at any position. The various defensive stats though? They see an average or worse defender. The numbers (third base only):

• DRS: -4 runs in 2019 and -4 career
• UZR: -2.5 runs in 2019 and +3.1 career
• FRAA: +5.9 runs in 2019 and +13.1 career
• Outs Above Average: +0 outs in 2019 and -4 career

Only one of the public defensive stats, Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), matches what your eyes likely tell you about Gio's defense. The OAA components say he is great at coming in on the ball but he gives back value going to his left and right, and back on the ball (pop-ups over his head, etc., like this). UZR's components mostly agree, saying range is where Urshela is lacking the most. Gio made the 34th most errors (13) last year despite being 129th in defensive innings (984.1), and while it's easy to say he made so many errors because he got to more balls than most players, Urshela did things like this and this, and that and that were pretty bad. I dunno. With defensive stats, it's always best to get as big a sample as possible, and right now we only have one full season of Urshela. With that small a sample (yes, one season is a small sample on defense), I'm inclined to go with the eye test. At the same time, our eyes are unreliable, and the stats are intended to give us a clearer picture. There's a chance Gio's defensive reputation was inflated because he never hit (Nichols Law, basically), but this isn't about reputation. It's about what we're seeing vs. what the numbers are telling us. For now, I choose to believe Urshela is a legitimately above-average defensive third baseman because that's what I see. I also acknowledge he might not be as good as he appears for whatever reason. The numbers are not perfect but neither are our eyes, and neither should be dismissed when you're evaluating players.

4. How can he improve? Aaron Judge. Our series examining each core Yankee going into 2020 continues today with the lovable giant in right field. We've already covered Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Gleyber Torres, and Luke Voit. Judge had a monster 2019 season around his oblique injury, hitting .272/.381/.540 (141 wRC+) with 27 homers in 102 games. For what it's worth, he also ranked third among all outfielders with +19 DRS, and DRS is a counting stat, so he did that despite missing all that time. Judge doesn't get enough credit for being such a well-rounded player. He's great at everything. It seems absurd to suggest there are ways he can be better going forward, though I never claimed this is a rational series, so on we go. First and foremost, we all want Judge to stay healthy in 2020. Between the broken wrist in 2018 and the oblique strain in 2019, he missed 110 of 324 possible games the last two years, or almost exactly one-third. With any luck, Judge will avoid the injured list in 2020 and provide 150 high-impact games. Beyond the injuries, there were times last season Judge fell a little too in love with the opposite field, and it cost him power. There was a stretch last summer where he hit three homers in 38 games. Three homers in 38 games! In Yankee Stadium with the rocket ball! That seems impossible. Judge still hit for average and drew his walks, but the power wasn't there, and Judge without power is merely a good player rather than a great one. He didn't pull his first homer until Aug. 20th and that's hard to believe. Obviously the injury makes that seem worse than it is, but still. Judge got back to pulling the ball later in the season and hit 15 homers in his final 33 games. That's much better. The correlation between Judge's pull rate and power is obvious:

It's easy to typecast Judge as a lumbering one-dimensional slugger but he is so much more than that. He has a plan at the plate and he will take outside pitches the other way. He's a gifted natural hitter who is held back to some degree by his size and the length in his swing. Judge is good enough and smart enough to continue using the opposite field while not sacrificing pull power. The best version of Judge will hit towering shots to left field and still wear out right field. For a long stretch last season he got a little too oppo happy and it cost him power. This year, I hope he rediscovers the balance that allows him to be a dangerous all-fields hitter. Aside from that, is there really anything obvious Judge can do to get better? I mean, there are always ways to improve, but he doesn't have a glaring weakness. He does strike out a lot, and that sucks, but swing-and-miss will always be part of his game at his size. That's just the way it is. I guess Judge could get on umpires a little more about all the called strikes on low pitches. It's been an ongoing issue for three years now. Judge ranked 22nd in total called strikes in the lower third of the strike zone and below despite being 173rd in plate appearances last season. Stuff like this is extremely annoying. Judge is not quite a veteran at this point but he's not new to the league either. He's a star and there are ways he can respectfully let the umpires know they're not calling a fair strike zone. He doesn't have to blow them up and get ejected, you know? Better pull/oppo balance, better health, and maybe getting on umpires a little more about all those low called strikes are the ways Judge can be even better in 2020. 

5. More top 100 prospect lists. Baseball America released their annual top 100 prospects list last week and, in recent days, MLB.com released their top 100 list and Baseball Prospectus released their top 101 list (subs. req'd). All three lists have Rays shortstop Wander Franco in the No. 1 spot. Here are the various Yankees:

MLB.com
54. OF Jasson Dominguez (No. 38 on Baseball America's list)
88. RHP Clarke Schmidt (No. 62 on Baseball America's list)
92. RHP Deivi Garcia (No. 65 on Baseball America's list)

Baseball Prospectus
24. RHP Deivi Garcia
46. OF Jasson Dominguez

BP's list is always skewed toward pure upside and they have Garcia ranked highest. By quite a bit too. Baseball America and MLB.com both have Schmidt over Garcia, however, and as I started piecing together my upcoming Top 30 Prospects List over the weekend, I went into it expecting to have Garcia over Schmidt, but I can understand going Schmidt over Garcia. Both have high-end stuff with developing command. It comes down to personal preference and it should be noted the difference between No. 88 and No. 92 (or No. 62 and No. 65) on a top 100 list is tiny. The two are very closely ranked. Schmidt over Garcia vs. Garcia over Schmidt boils down to whether you're more worried about Schmidt's injury history (Tommy John surgery in 2017 and forearm inflammation last year) or Garcia's size (listed at only 5-foot-9). I don't necessarily buy that Schmidt is a better bet to remain a starter -- Deivi's a legitimate four-pitch pitcher -- and besides, teams will take 120 great innings over 200 good innings these days. The Dodgers certainly did that with Rich Hill the last three years. Take the elite performance in however many innings you can, then backfill the rest. Like I said, the difference between Garcia and Schmidt is tiny, at least according to the new top 100 lists, and the Yankees have both players. We're not debating two players in two different organizations, or two players for one position. The Yankees will have plenty of room for both Garcia and Schmidt on their future pitching staffs. If they're both starters, that'd be great. If one's a starter and one's a reliever, that's okay too. And, if they're both relievers, well, there's value in that as well.

6. Boone and Cashman on the Astros. Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman were asked again about the Astros' sign-stealing scandal during their YES Network interviews last week. Randy Miller has a recap. Ken Rosenthal says MLB asked the Dodgers not to comment about the scandal  -- they released a delightfully passive aggressive statement about that -- but only recommended that other teams not comment, so the Yankees are free to talk about it. That said, Cashman and Boone didn't really have anything new to say. Cashman ripped Houston earlier this winter and Boone has called it disappointing and bad for baseball every time he's been asked about it. Seems like they're ready to move on and I don't blame them. There is not much more they can do at this point. The Astros? They have shown zero remorse and it is in no way surprising with that trash organization. Justin Verlander, who is not nearly as likeable as he seems to think, either joked or commented about the Astros being "technologically and analytically advanced" at the BBWAA awards dinner over the weekend while standing next to Cody Bellinger and CC Sabathia, two players directly affected by Verlander's team being serial cheaters. At best, Verlander is tone deaf. At worst, he feels zero guilt and thinks this is something we can all laugh about, likely because he's experienced zero consequences as a player. Other players are pissed though. Bellinger is pissed. Alex Wood is pissed. Mike Clevinger is pissed. Evan Longoria is pissed. Chris Archer is pissed. Fans are pissed too and they should be! The Astros cheated us all and they are not even the slightest bit sorry. "We apologize for damaging the game and hurting our fellow players. We used poor judgement and understand our accomplishments have been tarnished." See how easy that is? And yet no one with the Astros has been able to do even that in the two weeks since the punishment was announced. The Astros are going to wait until Spring Training to "ask for forgiveness" and nothing says contrite like waiting a month to apologize because that's when it's most convenient to you. Blah. Sorry for the rant. This whole thing just irritates me. Boone and Cashman seem ready to move on and I hope the rest of the Yankees can do the same. The AL East isn't going to win itself. "When the dust settles, we’ll obviously have further conversations, but I think the healthy thing to do now is try to focus on the future and try not to look back too much,” Cashman said.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees were among the teams to attend Henderson Alvarez's recent workout, according to Jon Morosi. Apparently he hit 95 mph, which is notable because he hasn't touched 95 mph since before his 2016 shoulder surgery. Big Hendo is still only 29 and he is extremely fun -- he has a novelty first pitch windup and he throws a 58 mph curveball -- and I hope the Yankees sign him simply so I can watch him in Spring Training. Alvarez spent last season in Triple-A and Mexico, and Morosi says he's looking for a non-roster deal ... Josh Norris (subs. req'd) listed Luis Medina as a prospect who could make top 100 lists next year. "While his career has ultimately been an exercise in frustration, Medina harnessed his arsenal toward the end of 2019 -- he has the best raw stuff in the system -- and earned a spot on the Yankees’ 40-man roster on potential alone," says the write-up. Medina was dominant late last season (45.2 IP, 29 H, 14 R, 9 ER, 15 BB, 63 K in his final eight starts) and I sure hope that's an indication things are starting to click. He's electric ... Jim Callis listed the best individual tools among MLB.com's top 100 prospects and he says Deivi Garcia has the best curveball. "Garcia achieves so much spin and depth on his curveball that it's not only difficult for hitters to square up, but also for him to locate in the strike zone at times," says the write-up. As good as the curveball is, Deivi's picked up a slider last season and it came a long way in a short period of time. It's not as good as his curveball, but the kid has two swing-and-miss breaking balls now .. the rocket ball will not be coming to Double-A in 2020. Kyle Glaser says they'll continue using the minor league ball in the three Double-A leagues this season after being expected to adopt the MLB ball. I guess that's good news. For pitchers, at least. Triple-A started using the rocket ball last year and the level went from 3,652 homers in 2018 to 5,752 homers in 2019 ... Spring Training opens in two-ish weeks and Greg Bird still has not signed. I mean, lots of players still have not signed, but I figured some team would've given him a non-roster invite by now (the Yankee-loving Marlins, most likely). I guess the Yankees could circle back and try to sign him to a minor league deal. At this point, a fresh start is probably the best thing for Bird. Time to turn the page.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)