January 21st, 2020: Hall of Fame, Arenado, Torres, Andujar, Infield, Manfred, Tanaka, Cressey

Only three weeks and one day until pitchers and catchers report to Tampa. Do the Yankees have another move up their sleeve before then? Or was the offseason plan really just sign Gerrit Cole, re-sign Brett Gardner, and do nothing else? I hope not. Well, whatever. Here are today's thoughts.

1. 2020 Hall of Fame class. Later today Derek Jeter will be announced as baseball's newest Hall of Famer. He has appeared on every public ballot and I think he has a legitimate chance to join Mariano Rivera as the only unanimous Hall of Famers in baseball history. Rivera broke that ground last year and more players will eventually follow suit. Even factoring in his less than stellar defense, Jeter is a slam dunk Hall of Famer. Sixth all-time in hits, 14-time All-Star, key member of five World Series winners, one of the 10 best shortstops in history, sterling reputation. It doesn't get much more Hall of Fame worthy than that. Even if he doesn't get in unanimously, Jeter should finish with one of the highest voting percentages in history. The top five:

1. Mariano Rivera: 100.0%
2. Ken Griffey Jr.: 99.32%
3. Tom Seaver: 98.84%
4. Nolan Ryan: 98.79%
5. Cal Ripken Jr.: 98.53%

There's a pretty good chance Jeter will be the only player voted in by the BBWAA this year. Larry Walker and Curt Schilling are on the bubble based on the public ballots -- this is Walker's final year on the ballot too, so it's now or never -- and Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are already under the 75% threshold on the public ballots. Historically, voters who do not make their ballots public tend to be harsh voters. Pretty much every player's final voting percentage winds up lower than their public ballot percentage. Walker and Schilling are on the bubble now, so it'll be close. Bonds and Clemens are already under 75%, so they'll miss again this year. Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling will all remain on the Hall of Fame ballot another two years after this one. I do not have a Hall of Fame vote -- this is my sixth year in the BBWAA, so I have to wait another four years after this one -- and I haven't put too much thought into this, but my ballot would probably look something like this:

• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Derek Jeter 
• Manny Ramirez
• Scott Rolen
• Sammy Sosa
• Larry Walker

I'm not an anti-performance-enhancing drug guy, obviously -- for all I care put it right on Manny's plaque that he failed two PED tests -- but I am anti-racism, so Schilling doesn't get my vote. I am completely comfortable invoking the character clause to keep people who spew hate out of Cooperstown. Schilling has a Hall of Fame resume as a player, but yeah. If you feel the need to defend the unabashed racist, be my guest. You won't change my mind. Anyway, that's my hypothetical ballot, but again, I didn't put too much thought into it. I hope Walker gets in because I thought he was a Hall of Famer watching him play and the numbers say he's a Hall of Famer -- he is fourth among outfielders in WAR the last half-century -- but I'm not terribly optimistic. He has to jump from 55% last year to 75% this year and that's a huge year-to-year jump. Hopefully I'm wrong and he makes it. Would be cool. Rolen's support is on the rise -- he's gained more votes this year than any other returning player (i.e. voters who didn't vote for him last year but did this year) -- and he has another seven years on the ballot after this one, so he's trending toward the Hall of Fame. He's kinda like the position player Mike Mussina. Obviously great but never really the greatest at his position, and the overall case is extremely strong despite a lack of hardware (no MVP, etc.). The official Axisa guess: Jeter is announced as the only new Hall of Famer later today and it is unanimous. Walker falls short in his final year on the ballot -- the Today's Game committee could vote him in at some point in the future -- and Schilling gets in next year, in his penultimate year on the ballot. Bonds and Clemens never get in and Rolen does in a few years. The Modern Era committee voted Ted Simmons and the late Marvin Miller into the Hall of Fame earlier this offseason, so it'll be Jeter and Simmons (and possibly Miller's family) on the stage during the induction ceremony in July. (Next year's Hall of Fame ballot is really weak. Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson will be the best newcomers. If Schilling gets in this year, there's a decent chance there will be a zero-person Hall of Fame class next year.)

2. Arenado trade. It's not quite as severe as my Francisco Lindor obsession, but, ever since the mailbag question two weeks ago, I keep thinking about the Yankees trading for Nolan Arenado. Arenado has been on the track block pretty much all winter and yesterday Rockies GM Jeff Bridich told Patrick Saunders that "really nothing has come of it," and "we can put this to bed," referring to Arenado being a trade candidate. Soon thereafter Arenado shot back, telling Thomas Harding he feels disrespected by the organization. "There’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of. You can quote that ... I'm not mad at the trade rumors. There's more to it," Arenado said. Yikes! Way to alienate to maybe the greatest player in franchise history, Rockies. The Arenado situation is starting to resemble how things played out between Giancarlo Stanton and the Marlins. Consider:

• Great players in their primes: Stanton was 28 and coming off his MVP in Dec. 2017, Arenado is 28 and a perennial MVP candidate.
• Owed a ton of money: Stanton had 10 years and $295M remaining on his deal, Arenado has seven years and $234M.
• Opt-out clauses: If they're great, they can leave early (Stanton can opt out after 2020, Arenado after 2021).
• Very unhappy: Stanton because the Marlins were trading everyone, Arenado because the Rockies have done nothing to improve a 71-win team.
• Full no-trade clauses: They both were in complete control of their destiny. 

Arenado signed his eight-year extension last February and yeah, if he was unhappy, he could have passed on the extension and become a free agent this offseason, but who says no to $260M? To me, the blame lies with an ownership group and a general manager that decided it can't spend more to build around Arenado because they committed $176M to Wade Davis, Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw (combined -4.5 WAR as Rockies). The Rockies have painted themselves into a corner. Arenado's unhappy and this situation will now be a distraction going forward. I don't just mean Spring Training. This'll be a thing until Arenado actually gets traded. The Yankees swooped in to land Stanton because he was a star player available at a low cost and the same might be true with Arenado now. The outfield was not a glaring need at the time of the Stanton trade but the deal was too good to pass up. That all applies to third base now. I mean, think about the full strength lineup:

1. 2B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 3B Nolan Arenado
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Gleyber Torres
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. CF Aaron Hicks
8. 1B Luke Voit
9. LF Brett Gardner

The Yankees gave up Starlin Castro and two lower minors prospects (Jose Devers and Jorge Guzman) to get Stanton and $30M of the $295M owed to him. Give the Rockies two lower minors prospects and either Miguel Andujar or Gio Urshela (turn the other guy into a multi-position player, something Urshela is willing to do), and take on the money. Maybe throw in J.A. Happ to offset some payroll in 2020. Jacoby Ellsbury and Masahiro Tanaka (and James Paxton) will be off the books next year. Luxury tax payroll relief is coming. There's no way to take on Arenado and get under the $248M third luxury tax tier this season, but you know what? You go over the threshold for a guy like Arenado. You don't do it to upgrade a middle relief spot or your backup catcher. You do it to get a star and Arenado would make the Yankees much more dangerous offensively and improve their infield defense as well. I have a hard time believing he'd block a trade to the Yankees. This is the place to be right now. For the Yankees, their window is as open as it's going to get. 2020 will be their best chance to win a World Series with this group. After that, 2021 will be their next best chance, then 2022 their best chance after that, but their odds will decrease a little bit with each passing year because players age (duh) and because guys like Judge and Sanchez will get increasingly expensive through arbitration. Arenado's peak fits the window. I adore Lindor and would have no trouble trading pretty much any young player not named Gleyber to get him. That does not seem all that realistic though. Other teams could put together better trade packages and Lindor's contract is not onerous, nor does he have no-trade protection. The Arenado situation is playing out like the Stanton deal. The contract means only the wealthiest teams will get involved (where you at, Dodgers?) and he is in complete control thanks to his no-trade clause. The Rockies have little leverage and acquiring one of the game's top players in what amounts to a salary dump feels very possible. I don't expect it to happen, but gosh, this is when the Yankees should be the Yankees and use their financial might to take advantage of a team in a bad spot. Arenado is there for the taking.

3. How can he improve? Gleyber Torres. Our series examining each core Yankee heading into 2020 continues today with Mr. Torres. We've already covered Zack Britton, James Paxton, and Luke Voit. Gleyber turned only 23 in December -- for comparison's sake, Aaron Judge started his age 23 season in Double-A and he spent the entire year in the minors -- and he went to his second All-Star Game in as many MLB seasons last year, authoring a .278/.337/.535 (125 wRC+) batting line with 38 home runs. 38 homers! Incredible. Granted, the rocket ball played a part in that, plus Torres really beat up on the awful Orioles -- he hit 13 homers in 18 games against the O's -- but still, that's a lot of homers even in a homer happy era. It wasn't a Yankee Stadium thing either. He had a 124 wRC+ at home and a 126 wRC+ on the road. Most impressively, Torres lowered his chase rate (33.7% to 32.6%) and increased his in-zone swing rate (66.2% to 74.1%) from his rookie year, leading to a nice strikeout rate improvement (25.2% to 21.4%). Here's what the improved plate discipline looks like in graph form (O-Swing% is chase rate and Z-Swing% is in-zone swing rate):

Gleyber is young enough, smart enough, and talented enough to cut his strikeout rate even further, I believe. Once he really settles in, I think he'll establish himself as a true talent 16%-ish strikeout rate guy. His power and innate hitting ability combined with increasing command of the strike zone is going to lead to big things. There's a reason ZiPS loves Torres. How can he improve in 2020? Two things come to mind. For starters, there's still some sloppiness in the field that can be cleaned up. I've written about this before, but Torres tends to play the ball off to his side and ole grounders rather than get in front of the ball, leading to miscues and careless errors. This play is a perfect example. Routine grounder, Gleyber has enough time to get in front of it, and instead plays it off to his side and is unable to handle the hop. Same thing here. That's a catcher running -- Statcast says Austin Hedges is one of the slower catchers in the game, for what it's worth -- so Torres has time to get in front of the ball, make the scoop, and throw to first. Instead, he tries to make the slick play off to the side, and the ball gets by him. To me, this seems easy enough to correct and it could simply be a matter of gaining more experience and getting more comfortable with the speed of the game. This is more about correcting a bad habit than trying to develop skills, you know? Improving Miguel Andujar's footwork will be a challenge because he simply might not have the athleticism and/or coordination to get better. That's not the case with Torres and his tendency to ole the ball. Playing the ball off to the side is bad habit more than a lack of skills thing. This is a relatively minor thing, I know, but it is something that can be improved, and I hope it's a point of emphasis in Spring Training now that Gleyber is the starting shortstop. The second thing Torres can improve going forward is his baserunning. I love the guy, but he's a horrible baserunner. I don't solely mean stealing bases either. Baseball Prospectus had Torres at -1.0 runs on the bases and FanGraphs had him at -0.5 runs, which I know doesn't sound terrible, but the gap between the best and worst baserunners is usually pretty small. The best are at +7 runs or so and the worst at -7 runs in a given year. It's not like defense where the best are +25 runs and the worst are -25 runs, and one run is relatively insignificant. For reference, those -1.0 baserunning runs according to Baseball Prospectus say Torres was equal to Austin Romine, a slow-footed catcher, and 39-year-old DH Nelson Cruz on the bases. Those baserunning stats are all encompassing too. They include going first-to-third on singles, scoring from second on a single, etc. Torres is firmly in the negative. I suppose the good news is Gleyber's extra base taken rate (first-to-thirds, etc.) improved considerably in 2019. The MLB average is 41%. Torres went from 21% (!) in 2018 to 37% in 2019, so he is getting closer to average. Still, it's bad. It's not a speed thing either. It's mostly a decision-making thing. Torres made eight outs on the bases last season, a top 25 mark in baseball, and most of them were poor reads or bad decisions. If a guy tags up at second base and gets thrown out trying to advance to third on a fly ball to deep right, I can live with that. I'm okay with the aggressiveness and a play like that usually requires the defense to make a perfectly play. A play like this though? Yikes. That's not knowing the situation and making a bad read. I can't imagine becoming a better baserunner is easy. So much of it requires quick decision-making, and if Gleyber's brain is telling him to do something in that instant, how do you correct it? It's not easy to simulate game action baserunning situations either. You can pound it into a guy's head that he's supposed to freeze on a low line drive, but, when it happens in a game and you have a fraction of a second to make a decision, it's not so easy to remember that instruction. I don't expect Torres to become a 20-stolen base guy or a Brett Gardner caliber baserunner -- even at age 35, Gardner was again a top baserunner in 2019 -- but I am hopeful he can clean up some of the poor decision-making and stop making so many outs on the bases. As good as he is -- and he is very good -- there is a little sloppiness to Gleyber's game in his baserunning and the way he plays grounders off to his side, and those are parts of his game I hope he improves in 2020.

4. Andujar at second base. Earlier this offseason Brian Cashman admitted the Yankees have considered moving Miguel Andujar to another position -- he said third base was Gio Urshela's to lose -- but the team had yet to put any plans in motion. Now that Andujar has completed (or is close to completing) his shoulder surgery rehab, the Yankees could begin to seriously consider a position change. First base or the outfield are the logical landing spots because that's where a player usually winds up when he can't cut it at third base. He moves down the defensive spectrum. Lately though, I've been thinking about Andujar at second base, and the more I think about it, the more I'm onboard with it. MLB implemented the new slide rule in 2016, making the double play pivot far safer, and since then teams have been more open to putting poor defenders or inexperienced players at second base. Max Muncy played 70 games at second base last season. The Brewers moved Travis Shaw to second base two years ago, then Mike Moustakas last year, and they'll have the all hit/no glove Keston Hiura at second base this year. (The Reds are planning to play Moustakas at second base full-time now too.) Matt Carpenter's and Daniel Murphy's moves to second base predate the collision rule, but they're cut from the same cloth. They're all bat-first players with shaky defense, yet their teams are comfortable with them at second base. That's because the new slide rule helps with the double play pivot, and also because teams can mitigate poor defense with shifts. Andujar has played a tiny little bit on the second base side of the bag at the MLB level (all in 2018):

Andujar had three defensive attempts on the second base side of the bag in 2018 and he converted all three into outs. Because I like you, I dug up the video: one, two, three. Hey, the second play was pretty slick! Two things to note. One, all three of those plays were made in April (two in the same game), so perhaps the Yankees gave up on Andujar (or he said he wasn't comfortable) on the second base side of the bag soon thereafter. And two, Statcast only publishes data for defensive attempts (i.e. the opportunity to make a play) and Andujar only had three attempts on the second base side of the bag. We don't know how many times he was positioned on that side of the bag but the ball was not hit his way. That counts as some level of experience on the right side of the infield. When Starlin Castro moved from shortstop to second base, he said it felt like everything was backwards, and I imagine a third baseman moving to second base could feel the same way. Andujar has a tiny little bit of experience on the second base side of the bag thanks to the shift, so, if the Yankees do decide to try him at second base, he wouldn't go in completely blind. The Yankees could compensate for his poor defense through positioning and matchups (i.e. start him at second when Gerrit Cole and James Paxton, two strikeout and fly ball pitchers, are on the mound), and his arm figures to play better at second. It's a shorter throw than third base, hopefully mitigating his accuracy issues, and it would help should Andujar lose any arm strength following shoulder surgery. Second base used to be this important up-the-middle position where defense was at a premium. Now teams put bat-first players at second because the slide rule and shifts have made the position less demanding. I think it's worth trying as long as Andujar is comfortable with it. He would increase his versatility and usefulness, and hey, DJ LeMahieu is a free agent next offseason and the Yankees don't have an obvious replacement second baseman coming up through the system. Perhaps it works well enough that Andujar could be considered the second baseman of the future. Wouldn't that be something? I think this is worth pursuing. Try it out in Spring Training and see what happens. "The focus on offense combined with the slide rule has definitely lessened the defensive importance of second basemen. The art and nuance to turning a double play has basically disappeared. It's much easier to put an inexperienced position player -- who probably adds offense to the lineup -- and teach him to turn two," Brad Ausmus told Buster Olney (subs. req'd) recently.  

5. Middle infield options. So much for those Joe Panik rumors. He signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays over the weekend, according to Rob Longley. Ben Nicholson-Smith says the deal includes a $2.85M base salary at the big league level plus performance bonuses, which is a pretty good chunk of change for a non-roster guy. The Yankees and Panik were said to have mutual interest in a minor league contract, which made sense given their middle infield needs and him being a native New Yorker, but I can understand going to the Blue Jays instead. There's a clearer path to playing time -- Cavan Biggio is penciled in as their starting second baseman but he can play many different positions, so they can easily shift pieces around -- and Toronto may have offered more money as well. It's been a while since Panik's been even a league average big leaguer, though he made sense as a depth pickup. Oh well. These are the top unsigned free agent middle infielders according to projected 2020 WAR:

1. Brian Dozier: +1.5 WAR
2. Wilmer Flores: +1.2 WAR
3. Jason Kipnis: +1.0 WAR
4. Matt Duffy: +0.9 WAR
5. Brock Holt: +0.6 WAR

Will any of those guys sign a minor league deal? At least one team is interested in Holt, so he will probably get a big league deal. I have a hard time seeing Dozier or Kipnis accepting a stint in Triple-A at this point in their careers, but who knows. Flores has punished lefties throughout his career and he can fake all four infield spots, so I think he'd be a worthwhile minor league signing. He's familiar with New York too. That can't hurt. Guys like Yolmer Sanchez (projected +0.4 WAR) and Jordy Mercer (projected +0.2 WAR) might be more realistic minor league contract targets at this point. As noted last week, the Yankees are really thin on the middle infield behind Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu, and as much as they like Thairo Estrada and Tyler Wade (or claim to like Estrada and Wade), I expect them to bring in a veteran guy on a minor league deal. No one exciting, but someone. I have to think last season seared "hoard as much depth as possible" into Brian Cashman's head.

6. Manfred's job. So at what point does commissioner Rob Manfred start getting criticized for the state of baseball? The free agent market bounced back this offseason and that was nice, though I don't think we should confuse that for a sign baseball has labor peace. The MLBPA is still very unhappy overall. Attendance is declining and too many teams aren't even trying to be competitive, which makes for a bad product. Worst of all, two of the last three World Series winners were serial cheaters -- Manfred's own report said the Astros cheated in multiple seasons (2017 and 2018), and the Red Sox were caught cheating in 2017 and are under investigation for cheating in 2018 -- and the most recent postseason featured a baseball that played very differently than the regular season baseball for reasons MLB either can't or won't explain. MLB's response to any questions about changes to baseball is to figuratively shrug its shoulders and folks, we deserve better than that. They think we're idiots and not the lifeblood of the game as paying customers. I think MLB is entering dangerous territory. The World Series is being won by cheaters and the baseball -- literally the single most important piece of equipment in the sport -- changes seemingly on a whim, all while MLB gets into bed with casinos and legalized gambling. Sketchy. Sketchy sketchy sketchy. Oh, and MLB is trying to eliminate 42 minor league teams because the owners think they're spending a little too much money. (The minor league contraction plan is a Jeff Luhnow idea. Hopefully MLB pulls it off the table now that he's out of the game.) The following two things are true: Manfred is failing baseball and Manfred is very good at his job. He's very good at his job because his job is to be a shark for the owners, and he's made them money hand over fist and bullied the MLBPA. At the same time, woof. Many teams aren't trying and several of the teams that are trying are cheating like crazy -- the teams of course deserve the lion's share of the blame for that, but Manfred is supposed to be a steward of the game, so it reflects poorly on him -- and no one knows what to expect from the baseball going into the season. That's all really bad. Bud Selig was far -- far -- from perfect, but it was obvious he loved the game.. He did what he thought was best for baseball at all times, even though some of his ideas stunk. Does Manfred love baseball? Probably, but the fact I can't say that with any certainty about the guy who's been commissioner since 2015 is, uh, bad. I'm not saying Manfred should be replaced. At some point though, the dude will have to be accountable for the state of baseball and give us more than non-answers. The buck stops with him.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. More good news regarding Masahiro Tanaka's return from elbow surgery: he's throwing off a mound already. He's doing more than just playing catch. Tanaka had arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur in October, which is a relatively minor procedure in the grand scheme of things, but it's still good to know Tanaka is progressing well and advancing with his offseason throwing ... the Yankees announced their new training staff, led by Eric Cressey, last week, and Ron Blum has some details on Cressey's exact role. He and his staff are already overhauling the way the organization assesses players. "There is a lot of behind-the-scenes systems work that we’re creating and already have created to help us extend to the minor leagues and just to communicate with the front office," he said. Apparently it was bullpen catcher Radley Haddad who put in a good word for Cressey with the Yankees. Huh ... for no good reason -- the reason is I saw him pitch in a Spring Training game and was impressed -- I am a Nick Margevicius fan, and over the weekend the Padres designated him for assignment. The 23-year-old is a low velocity left-hander who fails pretty much every analytics test ...

... and had a 6.79 ERA (5.64 FIP) in 57 big league innings last year (4.30 ERA and 5.16 FIP in Double-A), so there's really not much there. The Padres jumped Margevicius from High-A to the big leagues though, so they didn't set him up for success, and he's gutsy as hell and he knows how to pitch. A crafty lefty, through and through. He scrapped his curveball early in his career and picked up a slider, so he's shown the aptitude to learn and adjust. I dunno. If the Yankees can get him on waivers and make the 40-man roster work, I'd be cool with it. If not, oh well. Margevicius is just one of those random players I like and he's freely available, so I figured I'd write about him.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)