January 17th, 2020: Cora & Beltran, ZiPS, Britton, Nelson, Cole, Mailbag

Folks, the sign-stealing stuff is gonna get a whole lot dumber before we get any real answers (if we ever get any real answers), and yesterday was pretty dumb on the ol' internet. I hope you're ready for it. MLB accidentally turned into the NBA with all the offseason drama and I am pretty sure there's a way the league can turn all the added attention into a positive, but I'm also 100% certain they don't realize it and will screw it up. Anyway, here are today's thoughts.

1. Cora and Beltran fired. Technically the two sides "mutually parted ways," according to the press releases, but Alex Cora is no longer manager of the Red Sox and Carlos Beltran is no longer manager of the Mets. Both were let go earlier this week for their role in the Astros' sign-stealing scandal. Commissioner Rob Manfred's report identified them as ringleaders. The report says Cora was "involved in developing both the banging scheme and utilizing the replay review room to decode and transmit signs," and Beltran was among a group of 2017 Astros players who "discussed that the team could improve on decoding opposing teams’ signs and communicating the signs to the batter." Cora had to go. The Red Sox are currently under investigation for stealing signs, so Cora is the mastermind behind a cheating scandal that involves two of the last three World Series winners. There was no way he could remain in a position of authority given everything in Manfred's report. I imagine his penalty will be stiffer than A.J. Hinch's because Cora is a repeat offender with multiple teams, one of whom had been previously warned against electronically stealing signs. A lifetime ban could be on the table, though I suspect getting cut loose before the investigation is complete may buy him some leniency. As for Beltran, he was a player with the 2017 Astros and no players were disciplined as part of the investigation. There are three reasons for that:

1. Players were promising immunity for cooperation during the investigation.
2. Manfred said it would be "difficult and impractical" to assign proper blame to players.
3. Manfred said managers and general managers would be held accountable for high-tech sign-stealing in his memo following the Apple Watch scandal in 2017.

Beltran is considered a player for the investigation, so he won't be suspended or anything, but there are real world credibility and integrity issues. Two months ago Beltran said any sign-stealing was done legally. Now we know that isn't the case. What did he tell the Mets during his interview and/or since the investigation was launched? How can you move forward with someone who was revealed to be a central figure in a massive cheating scandal as the public face of the franchise? I don't think you can. The Mets lose a smart baseball person but they were in a no-win situation, and they took the path that carries the least risk. Sticking with Beltran through this only to have more allegations come to light would've been a disaster. The Mets get to say they're taking a firm stance against cheating and they get to wipe the slate clean, and move forward without all this hanging over the franchise. I get it. Now for the elephant in the room: Beltran was employed by the Yankees, both as a player (2014-16) and as a front office advisor (2019). Kristie Ackert and Andy Martino both report the Yankees are not under investigation for anything at the moment, and Martino says Beltran did not tell the Yankees anything in 2019 about what the Astros did in 2017. But really, who knows what to believe these days? For all we know Beltran could've helped the Yankees develop an elaborate sign-stealing system during his playing days and then helped improve on it as a front office person last year. We know he helped James Paxton stop tipping his pitches, and Cora did make that weirdly cryptic comment about Beltran being the Yankees' best offseason addition during the London Series. Manfred has said any sign-stealing allegations will be investigated thoroughly and I seriously doubt this was limited to the Astros and Red Sox. I think it is far more likely more sign-stealing schemes come to light than it is this all goes away with no more revelations. Chances are MLB has already looked into other claims and either found nothing, or didn't find enough evidence to hand down discipline. Where this goes from here, I have no idea. The Red Sox had to dump Cora. There's no way they could have kept him given what was in Manfred's report. Beltran could've hid behind the protections given to players during the investigation and the Mets could've said MLB didn't punish him so why should we, but they didn't, and it's probably for the best. The Yankees? As far as we know they aren't being investigated for anything, either during Beltran's time with the team or otherwise, but I'd say the book is far from closed on this high-tech cheating era.

(Aside: It is incredible the Mets hired a beloved and universally respected former player to be their new manager only to watch him immediately get caught up in the biggest cheating scandal since Biogenesis. They got looped into the cheating scandal and didn't even benefit from the cheating. Could only happen to one franchise, I swear.) 

2. 2020 ZiPS projections. Spring Training is a month away and that means it's projections season. Dan Szymborski released his 2020 Yankees ZiPS yesterday. Spoiler: they're good. Very good. ZiPS has them as a true talent 100-win team, give or take, and that is ridiculous. It's not often a projection system -- any projection system -- goes north of 95 wins. Here is the handy dandy WAR projection graphic:

Reminder: projections are not predictions. They are an attempt to estimate true talent level using statistically similar players. I touched on Gleyber Torres' five-year ZiPS projection two weeks ago. Now for some thoughts on the full ZiPS release. One, the top ZiPS comps for Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, and James Paxton are Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay, and Andy Pettitte, respectively, and, uh, sign me the hell up for that. Those are age specific statistical comps, so ZiPS likens Cole to 29-year-old Maddux, Severino to 25-year-old Halladay, and Paxton to 31-year-old Pettitte. Lordy. Oh, and the Yankees have 28-year-old Rollie Fingers (Chad Green) and 31-year-old Billy Wagner (Aroldis Chapman) in the bullpen. Fun! Two, ZiPS is down on Miguel Andujar (.264/.298/.446 and 95 OPS+) and Clint Frazier (.239/.299/.445 and 95 OPS+). ZiPS does factor injuries, so it knows about Andujar's shoulder. Neither Miggy nor Clint is good defensively, so they'll have to hit and hit big to have value, and the system sees neither doing that in 2020. Bummer. Three, ZiPS likes Mike Ford. It has him at .257/.340/.481 (116 OPS+) and gosh, the Yankees sure could use a left-handed batter like that. This isn't a case of the computers overvaluing random Quad-A mashers Kila Ka'aihue-style. ZiPS was never high on Greg Bird and it isn't as high on other minor league sluggers like Josh Naylor (100 OPS+), A.J. Reed (89 OPS+), and D.J. Stewart (94 OPS+). Ford's power is legit and his Triple-A walk (11.6%) and strikeout (16.1%) rates are very good. I'm an Andujar believer and if he's healthy and ready to go come Opening Day, he should be the DH. If he's not, the Yankees have a fine backup plan in Ford. Four, the system believes in Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela. It pegs Tauchman has a true talent .263/.335/.437 (105 OPS+) hitter and as a +13 runs defender. That adds up to +2.5 WAR. I will have to eat major crow if Tauchman does that (and I will happily do so). As for Urshela, ZiPS has him at .282/.319/.461 (105 OPS+) and +3 runs defensively for +2.2 WAR. Not as good as last year but still good, similar to Tauchman. Five, Deivi Garcia is ready to help. The 4.68 ERA (4.55 FIP) projection isn't great in general, but it is promising for a kid who will be 20 on Opening Day. Also, the 27.0% strikeout rate suggests the Yankees could stick Garcia in the bullpen and let him blow hitters away at pretty much any time. They have a nice little ace up their sleeve. Six, the middle infield depth is weak. Behind Torres (+4.6 WAR) and DJ LeMahieu (+3.6 WAR) there's Thairo Estrada (+0.6 WAR) and Tyler Wade (+0.3 WAR) and that ain't too good. The Yankees have been connected to Joe Panik to a minor league deal and ZiPS has him at +1.0 WAR, so he'd help, but there's still room for improvement. Another shortstop capable middle infielder would be a nice add before Spring Training. And seven, I like to use ZiPS as a measure of depth. Here's how many players the Yankees have various WAR levels:

• +1 WAR: 21 (okay player)
• +2 WAR: 12 (average player)
• +4 WAR: 3 (comfortably above-average player)

Last year ZiPS had the the Yankees with 22 +1 WAR players, 12 +2 WAR players, and three +4 WAR players, for reference. The depth is about the same as last year overall, and we saw how much the Yankees needed that depth last season. ZiPS has been released for only 11 teams so far, but they have been released for the Astros and Dodgers, baseball's two other superpowers. Here's what their depth looks like:

• +1 WAR: 22 Astros and 21 Dodgers
• +2 WAR: 9 Astros and 12 Dodgers
• +4 WAR: 4 Astros and 1 Dodger

Comparable depth to the Yankees. For reference, the extremely bad Tigers have 15 +1 WAR players and one +2 WAR player (and zero +4 WAR players). I'd feel a little more comfortable if the Yankees had a better backup infielder, but that's nitpicking. They're very good overall, arguably the best in the business, and we didn't need the ZiPS projections to tell us that.

3. How can he improve? Zack Britton. Our series looking at how core Yankees can improve in 2020 continues today with Britton. We've already covered James Paxton and Luke Voit. I was critical of the Britton contract mostly because I didn't love the idea of locking in a one-pitch reliever with bad command for three years no matter how good that one pitch is, but Britton made me look stupid in Year 1 with a 1.91 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 61.1 innings. The walk rate (13.1%) was too high and the strikeout rate (21.6%) not as high as you'd like for a high-leverage reliever, but Britton makes it work because he the game's most dominant ground ball pitcher, and has been for several years now. His sinker might be the best sinker since peak Kevin Brown's. The 2019 numbers: 

Ground ball rate (min. 50 innings)
1. Zack Britton: 77.2%
2. Aaron Bummer: 72.1%
3. Adam Kolarek: 66.3%
4. Framber Valdez: 62.1%
5. Mark Melancon: 62.1%

Launch angle (min. 100 batted balls)
1. Zack Britton: -8.9 degrees
2. Aaron Bummer: -3.4 degrees
3. Framber Valdez: -1.0 degrees
4. T.J. McFarland: -0.3 degrees
5. Adam Kolarek: -0.1 degrees

The gap in launch angle between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 11. The MLB average was a 12.2 degree launch angle last season and, for a hitter, the ideal launch is around 20 degrees. It varies by exit velocity but good things tend to happen around 20 degrees. Hitters were nowhere close to that against Britton last year. This is what an average -8.9 degree launch angle looks like:

Britton's exit velocity (87.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (34.6%) allowed were better than the league average, so it was a lot of weak contact on the ground. If you're not going to miss many bats, weak grounders is the next best thing, and Britton generates weak grounders aplenty. As for improving, two possible avenues come to mind. One, I think Britton should continue throwing his breaking ball as often as he did late in the season. Statcast calls it a slider and PitchFX calls it a breaking ball (it has curveball velocity and looks like a curveball to me), but, whatever it is, Britton threw it more often late last season and his already good results improved quite a bit. The numbers:

I noted Britton's increased curveball usage in late August. He wasn't just throwing more curveballs in general, he was throwing more curveballs early in the count, and at the time I wondered whether he made that adjustment because he was having such a hard time throwing his sinker for strikes at midseason that he was leaning on the curve to get in the strike zone. Britton's curveball usage really spiked in September and it was his best month as a Yankee. He went from almost 95% sinkers at midseason to 70% sinkers at the end of the season (and postseason), and the transition was gradual. I don't think it was a sample size fluke. I think it was a conscious decision and adjustment. The sinker will always be Britton's moneymaker and he should continue throwing it a lot. That ground ball rate is no accident. The increased curveball usage late in the season led to more strikeouts and even weaker contact, which are obvious pluses. Britton changed the scouting report, basically. When you went to the plate against him, you knew you were getting a sinker. Now the curveball has to be in the back of the hitter's mind. Stick with a 70/30-ish sinker/curveball split. Maybe even push it to 65/35? I'll leave that up to Britton. I think 30% curves works better at this point of his career than 10%. The second way Britton could improve is very basic yet complex: throw more strikes. Even at his peak, Britton threw fewer pitches in the strike zone than the league average, but his zone rate continues to trend downward, and last year it dipped to roughly 36%. 

At his peak from 2014-17, Britton was at 7% walks with a 44% zone rate. The last two years it's a 13% walk rate and a 37% zone rate. Walks were a real problem for long stretches of time last season -- Britton had an 18/20 K/BB in 25.1 innings spanning late May to mid August -- and it was basic strike-throwing. He wasn't missing just off the plate. He couldn't find the plate at all. "Throw more strikes" is way easier said than done. For starters, Britton's sinker moves a ton. He's not struggling to throw strikes with a straight four-seamer. This is a sinker that dives down and, to at least some degree, is designed to finish out of the zone. It is not an easy pitch to control. Secondly, throwing more strikes changes everything. It would not only lower his walk rate (in theory), it could lower his strikeout rate as well, and lower his ground ball rate, and possibly raise his home run rate too. It's not as simple as throw more strikes and the walk rate will go down while everything else stays the same. Britton is almost certainly a true talent 10%+ walk rate guy now but I am hopeful he's not a true talent 13.1% walk rate guy like he was last season. There's a balance between throwing enough additional strikes to cut the walk rate without significantly reducing the strikeouts or grounders. I don't know where that balance lies, but Britton was crazy effective with a 44% zone rate in the past. Maybe getting from his current 37% zone rate to 40% or so does the trick? Britton is a difficult pitcher to analyze because he's so unique. He has an elite skill in his ability to generate weak ground balls and that allows him to post elite results even though the other stuff we normally look at (strikeouts and walks) isn't all that good. The increased curveball usage worked so well late last season that it's worth continuing this coming season. Maybe it proves to be a small sample fluke. If it does, then it's back to the drawing board. I say stick with it until the hitters make you adjust. Throwing a few more strikes would be swell too, but I admit it is easier said than done given the movement on his sinker, and the possibility of negative ramifications (more hard contact?) even if it cuts his walk rate.

4. Tarpley trade. The Yankees designated lefty Stephen Tarpley for assignment a few days ago to clear a 40-man roster spot for Brett Gardner and, as expected, they traded Tarpley rather than put him on waivers. Got an actual prospect back too. Not a great one, but a prospect nonetheless. The Yankees sent Tarpley to the Marlins, a.k.a. Yankees South, for third baseman James Nelson on Wednesday, the team announced. Baseball America had Nelson as a top 10 prospect in an admittedly weak Marlins system two years ago. It's been downhill since then. A torn meniscus and hamstring trouble limited him to 66 games in 2018, then last year Nelson hit .228/.279/.296 (72 wRC+) with four homers and lower than average walk (6.4%) and strikeout (18.9%) rates in 121 High-A games. Here's what MLB.com had to say about the 2016 15th round pick going into last season:

Nelson makes hard contact to all fields with a short, clean swing from the right side of the plate. Most of his pop in pro ball has come in the form of doubles, but he has the speed and bat strength to develop average home run power ... Nelson has decent speed when healthy but won't be a basestealer. He has the plus arm to make all the throws at third base, though he needs to improve his lateral movement. He has enough tools to become a regular at the hot corner if he can improve his consistency on both sides of the ball.    

Nelson jumped onto the prospect radar in 2017, when he hit .309/.354/.456 (132 wRC+) as a 19-year-old in 102 Low-A games. Then the injuries slowed him in 2018 and he didn't hit in 2019. Seems like a classic "we liked this guy a year or two ago so let's roll the dice while his stock is down and see what happens" move. Nelson turned only 22 in October, so even if the Yankees send him back to the High-A Florida State League this year (seems likely), he'll still be about six months younger than the average player in the league. In the world of "got traded for a guy who had been designated for assignment," Nelson is about as exciting as it gets. There's some tools and ability here. If nothing else, the Ivan Nova trade tree grows another branch. (The Yankees traded Nova for Tarpley and Tito Polo. Polo went to the White Sox in the Todd Frazier trade, so Tommy Kahnle is the other active branch on the trade tree.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. As mentioned in the ZiPS blurb, the Yankees could use a little more middle infield depth. In that case, does Zack Cozart make any sense? The Giants released him earlier this week, so he's available for the pro-rated league minimum. Cozart has been hurt and awful (-0.7 WAR) the last two years, but he can play the hell out of shortstop, so maybe he's worth a look on a minor league deal? Wouldn't be upset if the Yankees pass, would understand it if they roll the dice ... great moments in getting ahead of ourselves: would the Yankees consider using Gerrit Cole on short rest in the postseason? He's never done it before, but gosh, imagine being able to start Cole, James Paxton, and Luis Severino in all five games of a best-of-five ALDS (then again, Masahiro Tanaka is no slouch, so perhaps starting anyone on short rest won't be necessary) ... Patrick Osborn, who I mentioned as a Triple-A Scranton managerial candidate last week, has left the Yankees for a role with the Marlins, according to Robert Pimpsner. That's a surprise. The leaving the Yankees part, not the Marlins part. Miami has been scooping up ex-Yankees since Derek Jeter and Gary Denbo took over. Osborn is well regarded in the industry, but the Yankees are overhauling their player development staff, so I guess they were comfortable letting him walk. The Yankees will have new managers at nearly every minor league level this coming season.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Sandeep asks: Think the Yankees are waiting to see what happens with the Ellsbury grievance to trade Happ? With German suspended, they could do worse than holding Happ till the trade deadline and trading him once he’s naturally cheaper as a result. It’s the end of season payroll that counts for the luxury tax after all, right?

I don't think the Yankees are waiting for the Jacoby Ellsbury situation to be resolved to do anything. The grievance could take months -- Yoenis Cespedes' lingered six months and Ellsbury's was officially filed only last month -- so hitting pause on the offseason is a good way to miss out on possible moves. They have to assume Ellsbury will remain on the books until they're told otherwise.

I think the Yankees would trade J.A. Happ today if the right offer came along, and the right offer could be something as simple as salary relief and a middling prospect. I agree keeping Happ wouldn't be a terrible move -- there's no such thing as too much pitching depth -- but I think the Yankees are comfortable with their depth and are committed to moving him for payroll reasons.

A.J. Burnett was not traded until Feb. 19th even though he was on the block all offseason and everyone knew he would be traded. The Yankees are very willing to be patient in these situations. Maybe the Ellsbury grievance gets resolved quickly. That'd be cool. The Yankees can't really count on it though. I think Happ's a goner no matter what happens with Ellsbury. 

(As for the luxury tax math, trading Happ at the deadline means the Yankees would still get charged whatever they paid him. Say he gets traded at the two-thirds point of the season. In that case, they'd still be on the hook for $11.4M of his $17M salary, which keeps them over the $248M third luxury tax threshold.)

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Christopher asks: Since Aaron Judge and the Yankees agreed to a settlement for his first season of arbitration eligibility and the Astros' punishment broke today, how much money do you think AJ lost out on presuming he would've MVP over Altuve in 2017?

Cody Bellinger and Kris Bryant went into their first arbitration year with a Rookie of the Year and an MVP, and took home $11.5M and $10.85M, respectively. Judge had a Rookie of the Year and an MVP runner-up and got $8.5M. Bellinger and Bryant are Super Twos and Judge is not, but let's ignore that in our hypothetical to make life easy.

If we split the middle between Judge's salary and Bellinger's/Bryant's salary to account for the injuries, that puts Judge in the $10M range. Call it $10M even. Ryan Howard went into arbitration with a Rookie of the Year and an MVP and got $10M in his first year. Using his percent raises as a guide for Judge, we get:

That $1.5M difference in Year 1 swells to $6.55M across the three arbitration years in our little back of the envelope hypothetical. With an MVP and good health, Judge could have matched Bellinger's first year arbitration salary, putting his three-year total at $50.6M using Howard's raises. Pretty huge difference between that and what Judge projects to get now.

Judge deleted his Instagram post congratulating Jose Altuve on the 2017 MVP win a few days ago and that's pretty funny. Think about the players not in his position though. Think about the rookie pitcher who pitched in Houston, got rocked and sent to Triple-A, and lost out on MLB pay and an opportunity. Livelihoods may've been changed for the worse.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Alex asks: Any chance the team will ever regret trading away Solak?

Oh sure. There's always a chance you'll regret trading away a prospect. The Yankees traded Nick Solak to the Rays in the Brandon Drury three-team trade and the Rays sent him to the Rangers in a minor trade last summer. Solak was called up in August and hit .293/.393/.491 (126 wRC+) in 33 games. A very fine MLB debut, it was.

The book on Solak is the same as it's always been. He doesn't elevate the ball enough to hit for power (52.9 GB% in MLB and 51.1 GB% in Triple-A in 2019) and he doesn't have a clear cut position. Solak has neither the range for second nor the arm for third, and neither plays at short. The Rays tried him in the outfield in Triple-A and Texas used him mostly at DH.

The Rangers pushed Solak to the bench when they signed Todd Frazier. He could improve his launch angle and find a defensive home(s) and become a valuable piece in time. In that case, you could look at Solak as someone who could have replaced DJ LeMahieu at second base next year. You win some and you lose some. Maybe the Yankees lose this one in the end. So be it. 

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)